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The Relationship Between Migration and Development in Morocco By The Relationship between Migration and Development in Morocco by Frances Danielle Loustau-Williams B.S. in Sociology, Hunter College, New York City, 2006 M.I.D. University of Pittsburgh, 2010 Submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School for Public and International Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of PhD in Public and International Affairs University of Pittsburgh 2016 i UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH GRADUATE SCHOOL FOR PUBLIC AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS This dissertation was presented by Frances Danielle Loustau-Williams It was defended on April 14, 2016 and approved by Louis Picard, PhD, Professor Sera Linardi, PhD, Assistant Professor Beverly Peters, PhD, Assistant Professor Dissertation Advisor: Louise Comfort, Professor ii Copyright© by Frances Danielle Loustau-Williams 2016 iii THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MIGRATION AND DEVELOPMENT IN MOROCCO Frances D. Loustau-Williams, PhD University of Pittsburgh, 2016 The relationship between migration and development can be volatile. While movement can lead to a more appropriate allocation of human resources within an economy, an unstable population distribution can lead to toxic concentrations of people. This is a potential risk factor as many people respond to the changes inherent to societal transformation through movement. As such, excess movement can disrupt the population distribution of a country. More comprehensive models of migration in developing countries are necessary in order to understand how rural populations are affected by development. The following study explores the relationship between migration and development in Morocco, with a particular focus on movement in the interior and predominantly rural areas. The analysis observes movement to small population centers in the rural areas. This observed phenomenon is henceforth referred to as “rural urbanization.” A mixed methods, multi-level analysis was conducted. An initial geographically weighted regression was performed using macro-level data as to identify the variation unexplained by pre-existing models. The statistical analysis was followed up by a case study of an example of rural urbanization in a town called Guigou, located in the Middle Atlas Mountains of Morocco. A survey was conducted in order to identify the reasons people migrated to Guigou and from where they migrated. Finally, qualitative interviews with representatives of the various migrant types in Guigou were conducted. The analysis observes an emergent economy in a small town in the Middle Atlas Mountains that evolved over several decades, beginning with farmers travelling short distances to take advantage of job opportunities in the agricultural sector and improved social services. The data indicate that as the economy grew and diversified, more and more people were drawn to Guigou, engaging in a variety of non-agricultural jobs. Over time the migrants came from increasingly diverse backgrounds. These origins included a large proportion of people coming from the large cities. It is concluded that migration occurs incrementally based on relative positioning in economy, leading to heterogeneous outcomes. It is asserted that migration mirrors economic patterns and should thus be treated as a complex phenomenon. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 INTERNAL MIGRATION AND DEVELOPMENT: THE PROBLEM ..................................... 2 1.2 “DEVELOPMENT” DEFINED ................................................................................................... 5 1.2.1 Agriculture and Development – “Dualism” .......................................................................... 8 1.3 MIGRATION DEFINED ............................................................................................................ 10 1.3.1 The ambiguity of “migration” as a concept ........................................................................ 10 1.3.2 Migration in the Technical Arena ....................................................................................... 12 1.3.3 Scholarly biases................................................................................................................... 14 1.4 THE PUZZLE ............................................................................................................................. 16 1.5 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY ................................................................................................ 17 1.6 RESEARCH QUESTIONS......................................................................................................... 18 1.7 ORGANIZATION OF THE DISSERTATION .......................................................................... 19 1.8 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................... 20 2.0 CHANGING SOCIETIES, TRADEOFFS, AND RISK FACTORS .............................................. 22 2.1 LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................................... 22 2.1.1 Neoclassical Economics Approaches .................................................................................. 24 2.1.2 Behavioralist Approaches ................................................................................................... 25 2.1.3 New Economics of Labor Migration (NELM) .................................................................... 26 2.1.4 Systems Thinking ................................................................................................................ 27 2.1.5 Sociological approaches ...................................................................................................... 28 2.1.6 Social Networks .................................................................................................................. 28 2.1.7 Transitional Migration Theory ............................................................................................ 30 2.1.8 Gravity models .................................................................................................................... 31 2.1.9 Rural to rural migration ....................................................................................................... 31 2.2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK .............................................................................................. 33 2.2.1 Economic Change and Stability .......................................................................................... 34 2.2.2 Risk, Migration and Development ...................................................................................... 35 2.2.3 Risk – Opportunity Framework .......................................................................................... 38 2.3 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................... 44 v 3.0 METHODS, METHODOLOGY AND DATA............................................................................... 45 3.1 METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................................... 45 3.1.1 The Logic of Multi-level analysis ....................................................................................... 45 3.1.2 The Logic of a Mixed Methods Approach .......................................................................... 47 3.1.3 A Spatial Analysis of Migration ......................................................................................... 48 3.2 METHODS ................................................................................................................................. 49 3.2.1 Section 1: A Contextual Narrative of Economic Change in Morocco ................................ 49 3.2.2 Section 2: Macro level patterns of migration in Morocco .................................................. 50 3.2.3 Section 3 – Meso-level analysis .......................................................................................... 51 3.2.4 Section 4 – Qualitative Follow-up Interviews .................................................................... 54 3.3 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 54 4.0 A CONTEXTUAL NARRATIVE OF MOROCCO....................................................................... 56 4.1 THE PHENOMENON OF MOROCCAN STABILITY ............................................................ 57 4.2 MODERNIZATION AND AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION .................................... 58 4.2.1 Managing Tradeoffs ............................................................................................................ 62 4.2.2 Morocco’s Industrialization Model ..................................................................................... 63 4.2.3 Morocco, an Arab country? ................................................................................................ 64 4.2.4 Symptoms of disequilibria .................................................................................................. 66 4.2.5 Arab Spring through the framework of Continuity and Change ......................................... 68 4.3 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................... 70 5.0 MIGRATION IN MOROCCO AT THE MACRO
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