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Valuation: Art, Science, Craft Or Magic?

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Valuation: Art, Science, Craft Or Magic? Aswath Damodaran VALUATION: ART, SCIENCE, CRAFT OR MAGIC? Aswath Damodaran www.damodaran.com Some Inial Thoughts " One hundred thousand lemmings cannot be wrong" Graffi Aswath Damodaran 2 Misconcepons about Valuaon ¨ Myth 1: A valuaon is an objecve search for “true” value ¤ Truth 1.1: All valuaons are biased. The only quesons are how much and in which direcon. ¤ Truth 1.2: The direcon and magnitude of the bias in your valuaon is directly proporonal to who pays you and how much you are paid. ¨ Myth 2.: A good valuaon provides a precise esmate of value ¤ Truth 2.1: There are no precise valuaons ¤ Truth 2.2: The payoff to valuaon is greatest when valuaon is least precise. ¨ Myth 3: . The more quantave a model, the beer the valuaon ¤ Truth 3.1: One’s understanding of a valuaon model is inversely proporonal to the number of inputs required for the model. ¤ Truth 3.2: Simpler valuaon models do much beer than complex ones. Aswath Damodaran 3 Approaches to Valuaon ¨ Intrinsic valuaon, relates the value of an asset to the present value of expected future cashflows on that asset. In its most common form, this takes the form of a discounted cash flow valuaon. ¨ Relave valuaon, esmates the value of an asset by looking at the pricing of 'comparable' assets relave to a common variable like earnings, cash flows, book value or sales. ¨ Conngent claim valuaon, uses opCon pricing models to measure the value of assets that share opon characteriscs. Aswath Damodaran 4 Discounted Cash Flow Valuaon ¨ What is it: In discounted cash flow valuaon, the value of an asset is the present value of the expected cash flows on the asset. ¨ Philosophical Basis: Every asset has an intrinsic value that can be esmated, based upon its characteriscs in terms of cash flows, growth and risk. ¨ Informaon Needed: To use discounted cash flow valuaon, you need ¤ to esmate the life of the asset ¤ to esmate the cash flows during the life of the asset ¤ to esmate the discount rate to apply to these cash flows to get present value ¨ Market Inefficiency: Markets are assumed to make mistakes in pricing assets across me, and are assumed to correct themselves over me, as new informaon comes out about assets. Aswath Damodaran 5 Risk Adjusted Value: Three Basic Proposions ¨ The value of an asset is the present value of the expected cash flows on that asset, over its expected life: ¨ Proposion 1: If “it” does not affect the cash flows or alter risk (thus changing discount rates), “it” cannot affect value. ¨ Proposion 2: For an asset to have value, the expected cash flows have to be posive some me over the life of the asset. ¨ Proposion 3: Assets that generate cash flows early in their life will be worth more than assets that generate cash flows later; the laer may however have greater growth and higher cash flows to compensate. Aswath Damodaran 6 DCF Choices: Equity Valuaon versus Firm Valuaon Firm Valuation: Value the entire business Assets Liabilities Existing Investments Fixed Claim on cash flows Generate cashflows today Assets in Place Debt Little or No role in management Includes long lived (fixed) and Fixed Maturity short-lived(working Tax Deductible capital) assets Expected Value that will be Growth Assets Equity Residual Claim on cash flows created by future investments Significant Role in management Perpetual Lives Equity valuation: Value just the equity claim in the business Aswath Damodaran 7 The Drivers of Value… Growth from new investments Efficiency Growth Growth created by making new Growth generated by investments; function of amount and using existing assets quality of investments better Terminal Value of firm (equity) Current Cashflows These are the cash flows from Expected Growth during high growth period existing investment,s, net of any Stable growth firm, reinvestment needed to sustain with no or very future growth. They can be limited excess returns computed before debt cashflows (to the firm) or after debt cashflows (to Length of the high growth period equity investors). Since value creating growth requires excess returns, this is a function of - Magnitude of competitive advantages - Sustainability of competitive advantages Cost of financing (debt or capital) to apply to discounting cashflows Determined by - Operating risk of the company - Default risk of the company - Mix of debt and equity used in financing Aswath Damodaran 8 DISCOUNTED CASHFLOW VALUATION Cashflow to Firm Expected Growth EBIT (1-t) Reinvestment Rate - (Cap Ex - Depr) * Return on Capital Firm is in stable growth: - Change in WC Grows at constant rate = FCFF forever Terminal Value= FCFF n+1/(r-gn) FCFF1 FCFF2 FCFF3 FCFF4 FCFF5 FCFFn Value of Operating Assets ......... + Cash & Non-op Assets Forever = Value of Firm Discount at WACC= Cost of Equity (Equity/(Debt + Equity)) + Cost of Debt (Debt/(Debt+ Equity)) - Value of Debt = Value of Equity Cost of Equity Cost of Debt Weights (Riskfree Rate Based on Market Value + Default Spread) (1-t) Riskfree Rate : - No default risk Risk Premium - No reinvestment risk Beta X - Premium for average - In same currency and + - Measures market risk risk investment in same terms (real or nominal as cash flows Type of Operating Financial Base Equity Country Risk Business Leverage Leverage Premium Premium Aswath Damodaran Cap Ex = Acc net Cap Ex(255) + Acquisitions (3975) + R&D (2216) Amgen: Status Quo Return on Capital Current Cashflow to Firm Reinvestment Rate 16% EBIT(1-t)= :7336(1-.28)= 6058 60% Expected Growth - Nt CpX= 6443 in EBIT (1-t) Stable Growth - Chg WC 37 .60*.16=.096 g = 4%; Beta = 1.10; = FCFF - 423 9.6% Debt Ratio= 20%; Tax rate=35% Reinvestment Rate = 6480/6058 Cost of capital = 8.08% =106.98% ROC= 10.00%; Return on capital = 16.71% Reinvestment Rate=4/10=40% Growth decreases Terminal Value10= 7300/(.0808-.04) = 179,099 First 5 years gradually to 4% Op. Assets 94214 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Term Yr + Cash: 1283 EBIT $9,221 $10,106 $11,076 $12,140 $13,305 $14,433 $15,496 $16,463 $17,306 $17,998 18718 - Debt 8272 EBIT (1-t) $6,639 $7,276 $7,975 $8,741 $9,580 $10,392 $11,157 $11,853 $12,460 $12,958 12167 =Equity 87226 - Reinvestment $3,983 $4,366 $4,785 $5,244 $5,748 $5,820 $5,802 $5,690 $5,482 $5,183 4867 -Options 479 = FCFF $2,656 $2,911 $3,190 $3,496 $3,832 $4,573 $5,355 $6,164 $6,978 $7,775 7300 Value/Share $ 74.33 Cost of Capital (WACC) = 11.7% (0.90) + 3.66% (0.10) = 10.90% Debt ratio increases to 20% Beta decreases to 1.10 On May 1,2007, Cost of Equity Cost of Debt Amgen was trading 11.70% (4.78%+..85%)(1-.35) Weights at $ 55/share = 3.66% E = 90% D = 10% Riskfree Rate: Risk Premium Riskfree rate = 4.78% Beta 4% + 1.73 X Unlevered Beta for Sectors: 1.59 D/E=11.06% Aswath Damodaran Average reinvestment rate Tata Motors: April 2010 from 2005-09: 179.59%; Return on Capital without acquisitions: 70% 17.16% Stable Growth Current Cashflow to Firm g = 5%; Beta = 1.00 EBIT(1-t) : Rs 20,116 Reinvestment Rate 70% Expected Growth Country Premium= 3% - Nt CpX Rs 31,590 from new inv. Cost of capital = 10.39% - Chg WC Rs 2,732 .70*.1716=0.1201 Tax rate = 33.99% = FCFF - Rs 14,205 ROC= 10.39%; Reinv Rate = (31590+2732)/20116 = Reinvestment Rate=g/ROC 170.61%; Tax rate = 21.00% =5/ 10.39= 48.11% Return on capital = 17.16% Terminal Value5= 23493/(.1039-.05) = Rs 435,686 Rs Cashflows Op. Assets Rs210,813 Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 + Cash: 11418 EBIT (1-t) 22533 25240 28272 31668 35472 39236 42848 46192 49150 51607 45278 + Other NO 140576 - Reinvestment 15773 17668 19790 22168 24830 25242 25138 24482 23264 21503 21785 - Debt 109198 FCFF 6760 7572 8482 9500 10642 13994 17711 21710 25886 30104 23493 =Equity 253,628 Value/Share Rs 614 Discount at Cost of Capital (WACC) = 14.00% (.747) + 8.09% (0.253) = 12.50% Growth declines to 5% and cost of capital moves to stable period level. Cost of Equity Cost of Debt 14.00% (5%+ 4.25%+3)(1-.3399) Weights E = 74.7% D = 25.3% On April 1, 2010 = 8.09% Tata Motors price = Rs 781 Riskfree Rate: Rs Riskfree Rate= 5% Beta Mature market Country Equity Risk + 1.20 X premium + Lambda X Premium 4.5% 0.80 4.50% Unlevered Beta for Firmʼs D/E Rel Equity Sectors: 1.04 Ratio: 33% Country Default Mkt Vol Aswath Damodaran Spread X 3% 1.50 Severstal: Valuation (June 2015) Company Industry (US) Industry (Global) Stable Growth Revenue growth Pre-tax Revenue growth = -5.63% 6.18% 5.82% g = 2.5% of -2% a year for operating Sales to Pre-tax operating margin= 20.97% 4.61% 4.83% Cost of capital = 8.0% 5 years, moving margin capital ratio ROC= 8.0%; Sales to capital ratio = 2.01 2.03 1.25 back up to 2.5% decreases to of 2.0 Reinvestment Rate=2.5%/8% = 37.5% Return on invested capital= 13.44% 8.04% 5.22% in year 10 15% over time. Cost of capital = 6.78% 7.51% Terminal Value10= 616/(.08-.025) = $11,206 Base year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Revenue growth rate -2.00% -2.00% -2.00% -2.00% -2.00% -1.10% -0.20% 0.70% 1.60% 2.50% Revenues $ 8,903 $8,725 $8,550 $8,379 $8,212 $8,047 $7,959 $7,943 $7,999 $8,127 $8,330 EBIT (Operating) margin 20.97% 20.37% 19.77% 19.18% 18.58% 17.98% 17.39% 16.79% 16.19% 15.60% 15.00% EBIT (Operating income) $ 1,867 $1,777 $1,691 $1,607 $1,526 $1,447 $1,384 $1,334 $1,295 $1,267 $1,249 Year 11 Tax rate 22.94% 22.94% 22.94% 22.94% 22.94% 22.94% 24.35% 25.76% 27.18% 28.59% 30.00% EBIT (1-t) 896 Operating assets $12,258 EBIT(1-t) $ 1,438 $1,370 $1,303 $1,238 $1,176 $1,115 $1,047 $ 990 $ 943 $ 905 $ 875 - Reinv 280 + Cash & CH 1,623 - Reinvestment $ (89) $ (87) $ (86) $ (84) $ (82) $ (44) $ (8) $ 28 $ 64 $ 102 FCFF 616 - Debt 2,987 FCFF $1,459 $1,390 $1,324 $1,260 $1,197 $1,091 $ 998 $ 915 $ 841 $ 773 - Minority Interests 18 Value of equity 10,877 / No of shares 837.72 Cost of capital = 11.14% (.761) + 3.57% (.239) = 9.35% Cost of capital decreases to Value/share $12.98 8% from years 6-10 Cost of Equity In June 2015, the Cost of Debt Weights 11.14% stock was trading at Bond rating: BB+ E = 76.1% D = 23.9% (2.5%+2.75%)(1-.30) = 3.68% $12.35/share.
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