Pacific Northwest

Th Th Assessment Washington, Oregon, andIdaho -Pacifithe UnitedStates Across inPhenology Changes Observed Phenological information can informationcan Phenological Phenology — the seasonal timing of life cycle events in events —theseasonaltimingoflifecycle Phenology Global Change Research Program’s the cascading eff the cascading diseasevectors,to track suchas to manage invasive species, to tify speciesvulnerabletoclimate to National Parks, andcultural primary scientifi primary population centers. plants andanimalssuchasfl information sheets. in carbon cycling inforests. cycling in carbon in speciesdistributions, spread forecast seasonalallergens, and festivals. Changeinphenology, recognized as a bio-indicator of asabio-indicator recognized change, togeneratecomputer climate changeimpacts,climate hasalso manuscript synthesizes the fi synthesizes manuscript mosquitoes andticks, inhuman sequestration,models ofcarbon migration — has been linked to shifts inthetimingof migration —hasbeenlinkedtoshifts on long-termstudies(10years ormore) publishedinthe of invasive species, andchanges century acrosstheUnitedStates. century thepast over changes inplantandanimalphenology and already isbeingusedtoiden- activity andpestoutbreak,activity shifts allergy seasons,allergy publicvisitation been linkedtoincreased wildfi Background information sheets that summarizes documented sheetsthatsummarizes information is information was developed in support oftheU.S. insupport is informationwas developed is is one in a series of eight, geographic region-focused ofeight, region-focused isoneinaseries geographic and can beusedtofacilitate preparation andcan for ects of ongoing climate change. ects ofongoingclimate c literature since2001. Aforthcoming ndings oftheeightregional re re owering, hibernation, and “Timing of snowmelt ofsnowmelt “Timing streams are critical and water tempera- the Pacifi tures inlakesand cues of phenology in cues ofphenologyin Th is summary isbased issummary National Climate National Climate c Northwest” Across theNorthwestern andinterior Western U.S. time Th 10 for honeysuckle) over analmost40-year period.10 forhoneysuckle) Earlier Flowers blooming thelast38years earlierover Flowers S ( The Pacifi Migration ofsockeye salmon( Mountains dividingtemperaterainforest alongthePacifi Changes inPhenology-Highlights waters, of2.6°C(4.7°F)since1949. witharise Salmon tures have gone up 0.8°C (1.5°F) in the past century and tures have goneup0.8°C(1.5°F)inthepastcentury the same time period [5]. the same timeperiod the 1940s. Th the region. Accordingly, rangefrom coastal zones climate past 40-70years [3]. ing west of the Cascade Mountains.ing west oftheCascade Meanannual tempera- in the next century [1,in thenextcentury 2]. Th in the Columbia River is 10.3 days earlier thanin earlier in theColumbiaRiver is10.3days regional watersupplies. Highertemperatures inthecool contributing to earlier snowmelt[1, toearlier contributing 2]. Th andsubsequentsnowmeltfor dependent onsnowpack doubled since 1970 with three-quarters ofthepeopleliv- doubled since1970withthree-quarters corresponded snowmelt. withthepulseofspring Mean fl earlier coast from of morerangelandinthewestern part arid marine tohighalpine,marine steppeacross andsemi-arid much of fi of theregion [1, 2]. Humanpopulationinthisregion has are predicted togoupanother1.6-5.6°C(3.0-10.0°F) annual temperatures increased 1-3°C (1.8-5.4°F)during a functionofincreasing watertemperatures [4]. been a 25% decline in snowpack intheNorthwest inthe insnowpack been a25%decline blooming was especially strongblooming from wasespecially 1970 to1994and season have resulted inmore precipitation fallingasrain, survival during upstream during migration decreased as survival Lonicera tatarica e Pacifi almon migrating earlierinColumbiaRiver almon migrating rst bloomforlilac( owering (average advances of 7.5 days forlilacand (averageowering advancesof7.5days by theCascade c Northwest ischaracterized c Northwest c Northwest towarmer is changewasattributed and L. korolkowii Syringa vulgaris e Northwest is also highly eNorthwest isalsohighly ) showed atrend toward Oncorhynchus nerka ) and honeysuckle ) andhoneysuckle ere hasalready c )

Observed Changes in Phenology Across the United States - Pacifi c Northwest MARCH 2013 al. “An-image-based Key tothe Zooplankton of theNortheast, USA”version 4.0 released 2010. UNHCenter forFreshwater Biology. Photo Credits: SaraN.Schaff Western toads( Temperature aff andsnowaccumulation Temperature infl

3 In a 12-year study of Northern Flickers ( In a12-year Flickers studyofNorthern Case Study:Predator-Prey Mismatch inLake pulicaria, water stratifi Spring watertemperatures inLake WashingtonSpring increased the Cascade Mountains of Oregon are breeding earlier are MountainsofOregon breedingthe Cascade earlier this period. Algalbloomsinthe lake paralleledthistrend, Washington period [6]. period population of infl in years [7]. withlesssnowpack MeanMarch andApril herbivore, laying. thestudy during eggsearlier Birds alsobeganlaying consequences forthelakeecosystem, withfuture algal thisperiod. during dramatically Th out-of-sync withthetimingof,out-of-sync itsalgalfoodsource. Th along themigrationroute rose. Temperatures atthe air temperatures aff indirectly algal bloomtime. However, anotherherbivore, advancing 27 days from theonsetofstudy.advancing 27days Onealgae an average of1.4°C(2.5°F)between 1962—2002, and breeding intoads breeding sitecorrelated withinitiationofegg- positively atbreeding siteswhentemperaturesbirds earlier arrived blooms becoming more severe [9]. uencing therateofsnowmelt. did not follow this trend and became increasingly didnotfollowthistrend increasingly andbecame Keratella cochlearis attheendof earlier occurred 21days cation

Daphnia uences timing of birdbreedingbehavior of uences timing Anaxyrus boreas Anaxyrus and policy review and approval.and policy Fundamental complies Survey This withUS Geological report Science Practice standards. has undergone peer It Any useoftrade namesisfor descriptive purposesonlyanddoesnot implyendorsementby theU.S. Government Network &U.S. Survey Geological Jake F. Weltzin, USANational Phenology PhenologyNetwork & The Wildlife Society Carolyn A.F. Enquist, USANational Research Center, U.S. Survey Geological Leicht-Young,A. Stacey Patuxent Wildlife PREPARED BY: er,National Peter Geographic Society; Essick, UNH,Centerfor FreshwaterBiology Phytoplankton Key,Haney,J.F. et 1 in Lake inLake Washington hasdeclined

, thechangein tracked closely ect theonsetofbreeding by , formerly, , formerly, iscouldhave negative Colaptes auratus of ect timing Bufo boreasBufo 2

Daphnia ) in e ), 127:917-925. Ecology 85:2100-2106. Ecology New York. Impacts intheUnitedStates. Press, University Cambridge Biol 17:622-625. University Press,University Cambridge, UK. Consequences ofClimate Variability andChange, Report Change ImpactsontheUnitedStates: Th Clim19: 6209-6220. 82:399-415. [2] National Assessment Synthesis [2] National AssessmentSynthesis Team. 2000. Climate [1] Karl, T. R., etal. (eds). 2009. GlobalClimateChange [5] Cayan, D. R., etal. 2001. Changesintheonsetof [4] Crozier, L. G., etal. 2011. Using analysis timeseries [3] Mote, P. W. 2006. and variability Climate-driven [9] Winder, M. andD. E. Schindler. 2004. Climatechange [6] Wiebe, K. L. andH. Gerstmar. 2010. Infl [8] Corn, P. S. 2003. Amphibianbreeding andclimate [7] Blaustein, A. R., etal. 2001. Amphibianbreeding and to characterize evolutionary andplasticresponses to evolutionary to characterize inwesterntrends America. North inmountainsnowpack J timing and success in a migratory woodpecker.timing andsuccessinamigratory Th for theUSGlobalChangeResearch Program. Cambridge environmental change: a case study of a shift toward earlier environmental toward change: earlier studyofashift acase change: ofsnowinthemountains. Importance Conserv change.climate Biol15:1804-1809. Conserv migration dateinsockeye salmon. AmNat 178:755-773. uncouples trophic interactionsinanaquaticecosystem. spring inthewestern UnitedStates.spring BAmMeterol Soc spring temperaturesspring andindividualtraitsonreproductive References USA National PhenologyNetwork & The Wildlife Society Carolyn A.F. Enquist, Science Coordinator 1955 East6thStreet, Tucson, 85721 AZ E-mail: [email protected] Phone: 520-792-0571 e Potential e CONTACT: une of uence e Auk

Observed Changes in Phenology Across the United States - Pacifi c Northwest MARCH 2013