WHITE PAPER
UNDERSTANDING MILLENNIAL MOVIEGOERS A Data-Driven Playbook CONTENTS
ARE MILLENNIALS THE FUTURE OF MOVIE-GOING? 03 THE MILLENIALS’ SHARE 04 WHEN DO MILLENNIALS GO TO THE MOVIES? 06 DON’T BE AFRAID OF MILLENNIALS 07 INVEST IN MILLENNIALS TO CAPITALIZE ON THEIR LOYALTY 10 WHO SAID MILLENNIALS WERE ALL THE SAME? 12 APPENDIX: SUPPORTING FIGURES 13
Copyright © 2016 Movio Limited. All Rights Reserved. Ltd. International Group A company of Vista About The Author
Bryan Smith, Chief Data Scientist
Dr. Smith has a B.S.E. degree in Biomedical Engineering and Mathematics from Tulane University and Masters’ and Ph.D. degrees in Applied Mathematics from Northwestern University in Chicago. He heads research in statistics, science, and analytics at Movio, concentrating on the development of new products that utilize Movio’s global moviegoer database to generate analytical insights.
2 ARE MILLENNIALS THE FUTURE OF MOVIE-GOING?
ARE MILLENNIALS THE FUTURE OF MOVIE-GOING?
Millennials, also known as Generation Y, are the generation commonly understood to be born between the early 1980s and late 1990s, now aged between 20 and 35. They are one of the largest generations in American history and are now moving into their prime spending years, making them particularly important to cinemas, studios, and advertisers.
The conventional wisdom has been that Millennials are not as engaged with the cinema industry as previous generations. As the largest aggregator of cinema loyalty data in the world, Movio is well placed to analyze Millennials’ behaviors at the movies, which is quite topical at the moment as recent research published by National CineMedia1 contradicted the above assessment. 20-35 YEARS OLD So in the end, what do we know about Millennials at the movies? Millennials are men and women How often and when do they go to the theater? aged 20 to 35 years old Which film genres do they prefer? Do they interact with cinema loyalty programs? How much do they spend on box office and concessions? Do they exhibit a consistent behavior as a group? Copyright © 2016 Movio Limited. All Rights Reserved. Ltd. International Group A company of Vista 1 ‘Now Showing: Millenials’ Movie-going Experience’, National CineMedia, May 2016
3 THE MILLENNIALS‘ SHARE
THE MILLENNIALS’ SHARE
To compare Millennial behavior with the movie-going audience as a whole, we selected a sample of 1,000,000 loyalty members between the ages of 14 and 80 31% from across the United States that attended at least one movie in 2015. First, we LOYALTY POPULATION consider the demographics of loyalty programs versus the wider population. As shown in Figure 1, middle-aged women (30-50 yo) are vastly overrepresented in Millennials make up 31% of the loyalty programs, particularly compared with teenagers. Millennial women are cinema loyalty population somewhat overrepresented, making up 17% of loyalty members but only 14% of the US population, whereas Millennial men are slightly underrepresented, at 13% and 14%. Overall, Millennials make up 31% of the loyalty population and 28% of the US population.
Interestingly, while women are more likely to join loyalty programs, length of tenure suggests that men are somewhat more likely to remain engaged, with Millennial men over 30 having spent ~24 days longer in the loyalty program than Millennial women. Figure 2 shows the average number of days active in the loyalty program for each demographic group. It’s important to note that the majority of the data analyzed for this research only goes back to 2014, so it is likely that the true average length of tenure for older moviegoers is higher. 24 DAYS LONGER Copyright © 2016 Movio Limited. All Rights Reserved. Ltd. International Group A company of Vista Millennial men over 30 spend 24 days longer in a cinema loyalty program than Millennial women
4 THE MILLENNIALS‘ SHARE
Next we consider the number of movies seen in 2015. In order to account for the fact that the number of days in the program is dependent on age, we prorate the number of movies for each member by the length of time in the loyalty program. As 6.2 shown in Figure 3, Millennials tended to average between five and seven visits, with men averaging about one visit more than women. As a group, Millennials averaged MOVIES ANNUALLY 6.2 visits in 2015, which is about 7% below the overall loyalty average of 6.6. They Millennials see on average were therefore slightly underrepresented at the box office, accounting for 29% of 6.2 movies annually box office spending while representing 31% of the loyalty population.
Interestingly, the number of visits drops off as the population moves through the 20s and begins to pick up again in the 30s, as Millennials under 25 average 6.5 visits, Millennials over 30 average 6.0, and younger members of Generation X (36-40 yo) average 6.2. This suggests that Millennials may be at an age where they’re going through a transition in their movie-going habits, and this is something to consider throughout the rest of the whitepaper. 29% Copyright © 2016 Movio Limited. All Rights Reserved. Ltd. International Group A company of Vista OF BOX OFFICE Millennials make up on average 29% of the box office
5 WHEN DO MILLENNIALS GO TO THE MOVIES?
WHEN DO MILLENNIALS GO TO THE MOVIES?
One of the major findings in the NCM report on Millennials was that the motivation Finally, we consider day of the week. As we noted in Breaking the Blockbuster Code2, for in-theater viewing is largely to satisfy their need for instant gratification for content. middle-aged moviegoers (30-50 yo) generally attend most often on the weekend, As shown in Figure 4, their behavior on opening weekend confirms this assessment, and young adults (15-30 yo) are particularly likely to take advantage of cheap Tuesday as greater than 47% of their cinema visits take place on opening weekend, which is deals or attend Thursday night film openings. Here the data confirms this finding, 12% greater than loyalty members as a whole. It also shows that men are much more with Millennials shifting their weekday preferences away from Tuesday and towards likely than women to ensure that they see a film as soon as possible. the weekend as they age, as shown in Figures 6a and 6b. 57% of cinema visits by Millennials under 25 take place during the weekend, 17% on Tuesdays and 11% Next we consider time of day. As above, Figure 5 suggests that Millennials are on Thursdays, whereas 66% of visits by Millennials over 30 take place during the undergoing a transition in their movie-going habits as they age, with nearly 60% weekend, 13% on Tuesdays and 9% on Thursdays. of visits by Millennials under 25 taking place after 6pm, but only 49% of visits by Millennials over 30. This can be compared with 42% of visits by program members overall.
OPENING WEEKEND BEFORE 6PM AFTER 6PM TUESDAYS WEEKENDS
Copyright © 2016 Movio Limited. All Rights Reserved. Ltd. International Group A company of Vista 47% 51% 60% 17% 66% 47% of visits by 51% of visits by 60% of visits by 17% of visits by 66% of visits by Millennials under 25 yo are Millennials over 30 yo Millennials under 25 yo Millennials under 25 yo Millennials over 30 yo on opening weekend are before 6pm are after 6pm are on Tuesdays are on weekends
2 ‘Breaking the Blockbuster Code: Audience Evolution Patterns Revealed’, Movio, March 2016
6 DON’T BE AFRAID OF MILLENNIALS
Animation Art-House DON’T BE AFRAID Christian OF MILLENNIALS Drama Dystopian Horror In order to better understand Millennials’ viewing habits, Indie we used our members’ movie-going history to divide Tentpole 325 major releases between January 1, 2014 and May Thriller 1, 2016 into eleven different clusters3. Figure 7 shows a Urban map of these eleven clusters, with the size of each circle Young-Adult Comedy representing the degree to which Millennials were over- or under-represented at a particular title.
Animation Art-House Christian Drama Dystopian Horror Indie Tentpole Thriller Urban
Copyright © 2016 Movio Limited. All Rights Reserved. Ltd. International Group A company of Vista Young-Adult Comedy
3 Animation: Zootopia, Inside Out, Minions. Art House: Birdman, Whiplash, Chef. Christian: Miracles from Heaven, War Room, Risen. Drama: The Hundred-Foot Journey, Joy, The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel Dystopian: Ex Machina, Sin City: A Dame to Kill For, 10 Cloverfield Lane. Horror: Annabelle, Ouija, Insidious: Chapter 3. Indie: Theory of Everything, Spotlight, The Imitation Game. Tentpole: Captain America: Civil War, Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens, Jurassic World. Thriller: London Has Fallen, Sicario, Taken 3. Urban: Straight Outta Compton, Ride Along 2, Barbershop: The Next Cut. Young Adult Comedy: How To Be Single, Ted 2, Trainwreck
7 DON’T BE AFRAID OF MILLENNIALS
REPRESENTATION OF MILLENNIALS PER GENRE VS ALL MOVIEGOERS
+47%
Compared with other demographic groups, Millennials are much more likely to see horror films (+47%), urban films (+23%), young-adult comedies (+18%), and tentpole (+13%) films, and significantly less like to watch dramas (-45%), indie +23% films (-52%), or art-house (-35%) movies. +18% +13% Art-house Dramas Indie Urban Horror Horror Tentpoles Tentpoles Copyright © 2016 Movio Limited. All Rights Reserved. Ltd. International Group A company of Vista Young adult comedies Young
–35%
–45% –52%
Over Representation Under Representation
8 DON’T BE AFRAID OF MILLENNIALS
It is also worth noting that Millennials’ genre preferences can change quite These shifts are probably driven by Millennials in their late 20s and early 30s beginning dramatically as they get older, providing further evidence that this is a transitional to have children and introducing them to the cinema. This hypothesis is supported stage. For example, Figure 8 shows the decline in horror film preference, and Figure 9 by the trend in the number of tickets purchased per visit, with Millennials over 30 shows the increase in preference for animated movies. Figure 10 shows that Tentpole averaging 17% more tickets per visit than Millennials under 25, as shown in Figure 11. films remain popular with the entire cohort.
EVOLUTION OF GENRE PREFERENCE