VYTAUTAS MAGNUS UNIVERSITETY FACULTY OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND DIPLOMACY DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
Vladislav Sazonov
RUSSIAN MEDIA AS A SOFT POWER TOOL IN POST-SOVIET COUNTRIES: CASE OF BELARUS AND LITHUANIA (2014-2019)
Bachelor Thesis
World Politics and Economics, State Code 612L20009 Political Science Study Field
Supervisor PhD, Andrei, Stsiapanau______(Researcg Desgree, Name, Surname)
Defended prof. dr. Šarūnas Liekis______
Kaunas, 2020 2 Vladislav Sazonov
Russian Media as a Soft Power Tool in Post-Soviet Countries: Case of Belarus and Lithuania (2014-2019)
Keywords: Belarus, Lithuania, Russia, international relations, bilateral relations, propaganda, soft power.
The object of this bachelor thesis is Communication of Russian Medias in countries, which are considered as near abroad, or post-Soviet countries, for the period between 2014 and 2019. The aim of the work is to analyse communication ways of Russian medias in near abroad, especially in two post-Soviet countries, that shall be compared in terms of Russian media sources existing in these countries, finding out and examining narratives. Thus, Belarus and Lithuania shall be studied in this work. The research conducted in this thesis shall define and explain the meaning of various political and societal significant topics concluded in frames. The outcome could be informative in the way of studying the issue of soft power in the Russian context.
3 Уладзіслаў Сазонаў
Расійскія медыя як інструмент мяккай моцы у пост-Савецкіх краінах: выпадак Белаурсі і Літвы (2014-2019)
Ключавыя словы: Беларусь, Літва, Расія, міжнародныя адносіны, дзвюхбаковыя адносіны, прапаганда, мяккая моц.
Аб’ект даследвання ў дадзенай працы ёсць каммунікацыя Расійскіх медыя ў яе бліжнім замежжы з 2014 да 2019 году. Асноўная мэта – дазнацца якім чынам Расійскія медыі вядуць камунікацыю з патэнцыйнай аўдыторыяй, параўноўваючы Беларусь і Літву ў сэнсе тлумачэння важных падзеяў ды вылучэння асноўных наратываў для даследвання. Даследванне будзе праведзена, выкарыстоўваючы наступныя метады: колькасны аналіз і якасны аналіз. Падчас колькаснага аналізу будзе вызначана прыблізная з улікам пагрэшнасці колькасць згадванняў вызначаных ключавых тэрмінаў у Расійскіх медыя крыніцах. Падчас якаснага аналізу будуць даследвацца асноўныя наратывы з фрагментамі артыкулаў аналізаваных медыя крыніц. Выкананае ў гэтай працы даследванне вызначыць ды патлумачыць значэнне розных палітычна- і сацыяльна важных тэмаў. Вынік даследвання можа быць інфармацыйным з пункту гледжання магчымасці даследвання згаданай тэмы працы.
4 Vladislav Sazonov
Rusijos medijos kaip minkštosios galios instrumentas pokomunistinise šalyse: lyginamasis Baltarusijos ir Lietuvos tyrimas (2014-2019)
Reikšminiai žodžiai: Baltarusija (Gudija), Lietuva, Rusija, tarptautiniai santykiai, šalių santykiai, propaganda, minkštoji galia
Šiame darbe nagrinėjamos Rusijos medijų komunikacijos užsienyje, tyrinėjami Baltarusijos ir Lietuvos atvejai 2014-2019 metais. Pagrindinis tikslas yra naratyvų testavimas bei aprašymas. Tyrimas įvyksta naudojant kiekybinį ir kokybinį metodą. Tyrinėsiant kiekybiniu metodu bus nustatytas apytikslis kiekvieno naratyvo minėjimo skaičius. Kokybinio metodo tyrinėjimo metu išnagrinėjamas su kiekvienu naratyvu susijusio straipsnio turinys naudojant tam tikro straipsnio fragmentą. Šiame darbe atliktas tyrimas pareikš ir paaiškins tiek bendruomenei tiek politikai svarbias temas. Tyrimo rezultatas gali būti informatyvūs bei naudingas tolimesniam studijuojamos temos mokymuisi.
5 Table of Contents
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ...... 6 INTRODUCTION ...... 7 1. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: MEDIA, PROPAGANDA, AND SOFT POWER) ...... 11 1.1. Methodology ...... 15 1.2. Frames ...... 19 2. INTERSTATE RELATIONS OF BELARUS, LITHUANIA, AND RUSSIA ...... 21 2.1. Bilateral relations of Belarus and Russia ...... 21 2.2. Bilateral relations of Lithuania and Russia ...... 23 2.3. Belarus-Lithuania Relations ...... 23 3. MEDIA ANALYSIS ...... 25 3.1. Russian medias in Belarus ...... 25 3.2. Belarus frames ...... 26 3.3. Russian medias in Lithuania ...... 31 3.4. Lithuania frames ...... 31 3.5. Qualitative Analysis ...... 35 3.6. Belarus ...... 36 3.7. Lithuania ...... 37 CONCLUSION; ...... 40 REFERENCES ...... 41 PUBLICATIONS ...... 44
6 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
ANPP Astravets Nuclear Power Plant BREXIT Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CSTO/ODKB Collective Security Treaty Organization EaP Eastern Partnership EEA European Economic Area EEU Eurasian Economic Union EHU European Humanities University EP European Parliament EU European Union IIHF International Ice Hockey Federation IMF International Monetary Fund KP Komsomolskaya Pravda LNG Liquefied natural gas MFA Ministry of Foreign Affairs NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NGO Non-Governmental Organization OSCE Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe ROSKOMNADZOR Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass media RT Russia Today UK The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland UN United Nations USA United States of America USSR Union of Soviet Socialistic Republics WTO World Trade Organization
7 INTRODUCTION
Since the World Politics faced such challenges, as the War in Syria, terrorist’s attacks in European countries, populists uprising in Europe, Brexit, Russian cyber-attacks and its attempts to make an impact on election campaigns in several subjects of international law, i.e. countries; the community of democratic and peaceful countries should pay attention as well as take respect measures to prevent any similar course of actions. The International community has faced the significant instability between several countries involved in bilateral conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2014 as well. The issue of war, medias, political campaigns, then their interconnectedness should be kept in mind. The situation inside the European Union (EU) in particular, that arose after the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 caused a series of public debates, discussions, disapprovals, and resonance positions worldwide. The annexation itself was caused by the Revolution in Ukraine of 2014, which is also called Euromaidan Revolution or the Revolution of Dignity. Such Russian government actions towards Ukraine were found inappropriate by the vast majority of international community and democratic peaceful countries decided to impose sanctions. Those imposed sanctions affected economic systems of two Global Actors, Russia and the EU. Considering this chain of events of the early 2014, it can be noticed that existing world order was destabilized and agreements were dismissed. Beside Ukraine or Russia, which suffered from the crisis most, the whole European Continent was affected in economic and political ways1. Moreover, any kind of destabilizations in the world could be considered by leading to economic crisis as the result of imposed sanctions. The way society evaluates news is usually determined by the way the relevant information is presented in mass media sources. We are not fenced off by the deceitfully given information, especially during the time, significant global or regional changes take place. In this terms, Russia as the USSR successor is widely known, because the propaganda was the main tool of the state for influencing masses. And until it collapsed, the USSR authorities had been withholding information from population on many significant events, such as Chernobyl Accident in 1986. However, in 2019 countries still face the problem of the external influence in various ways, such as media, culture, language, and so on. Mass media can be considered as an important tool for any state with the aim of informing people. Nevertheless, every media source can present any kind of information the way they think they should, i.e. media materials can be interpreted differently, both announcer can separate the intonation on the air on TV, either author can carefully express the position in a written article.
1 Europa.eu. European Union. 8 There is also fake news, which can possess the threat for any society. As for 2019, the fake news phenomenon is a broadly studied subject. Among possible fake news interactions and consequences with society, the most obvious and significant fact is that fake news chains may cause the maleficent effect on society, that shall be highlighted in the theoretical framework of the thesis. In its turn, this effect may result in turning points for society. Consequently, in society media can play both informative, communicative role either be a falsely informative or didactic aspect. In general, fake news along with other expressions of falsely provided information will be studied and generalized as the information disorder. Fake news and misinformation, as well as using narratives shall be considered as soft power components. In the thesis, media sources of Belarus and Lithuania, in particular tied with Russia or Russian speaking medias, shall be studied by counting and anatomizing their material on topics which are related to such global or regional events, as the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Belarus-Russia relations, relations between the EU and Lithuania, problems that occur between countries, the existence and functioning of political groups in Belarus, and others. Belarus and Lithuania, however, are in different international political, economic, and military positions. However, it could be important for Russia to exert influence on both of these countries, as well as on other countries in Europe through the media. And it can be explained by the ambitions of Russia as a global actor to have as many allies as it is possible. Background: The variety of notable events occurred in the European continent in 2010s. One of events is the Revolution in Ukraine, which started with Ukrainian society was not quite satisfied with its President Viktor Yanukovič. And, following his refuse to sign the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU, Ukrainian people began to publicly express their position and opinion. This led to Revolution in country, Yanukovič resignation, and Azarov Government demission. Following the Revolution in Ukraine and the fresh protests against newly formed government, there began protests in the South-Eastern region of Ukraine, and autonomous region Crimea. Crimea was annexed by undefined troops, which are supposed to be Russian military. Moreover, this fact is quite obvious considering the proximity of Crimea with Russia. After the Annexation of Crimea occurred, there was the Crimean Referendum held. Absolute majority of UN countries have not recognized the result of the Referendum in Crimea, supporting territorial integrity of Ukraine. Soon after the exposed Russian aggression, the democratic countries have imposed sanctions against Russia. These events led to the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. Moreover, relations deteriorated between Western countries and Russia. This confrontation was manifested itself in such kinds, as military, civic, political, economic, medias, 9 and others. Such events made the Russian authorities think about their image in the eyes of the population of Western countries, and the countries of nearest abroad2. The example and the special role of Ukraine in this part of the thesis is explained by its significance in the field of politics, economics, military, and international relations. Events occurred in Ukraine in the first half of 2014 caused main tensions in World Politics3. Russian media exist in many countries all over the world. One of the well-known television channels, Russia Today, is broadcasting in many countries. Such countries, as ones, that are compared in the study, Belarus and Lithuania also have Russian-speaking and pro-Russian media. The positions and presence of Russian media in these countries may differ, as countries have different international policies. Although in both countries there are discussions in society regarding the relevance of broadcasting of Russian television channels, in particular. Since the Russian aggression against Ukraine was unexpected, either the annexation reason was explained by Russian authorities, as the need to “protect” Russian-speaking population of Crimea, it’s can be logically grounded that other countries with Russian-speaking population or minorities should consider the issue of Crimea drawing relevant possible consequences on themselves. Soon after annexation, Russia started making leveraging attempts over post-Soviet countries by means of propaganda, i.e. media. Relevance of the topic: Countries of the former Soviet Union, in particular, the Baltic region, can be quite important for Russia. During their being as a parts of the Soviet Union, the Russification policy made a strong impact on them. Currently, Russian-speaking minority population in Baltic States can be seen by Russia as a tool for influencing just based on the fact of their existence. Considering Belarus with its Russian speaking population in the majority, this region could be the most crucial value for Russia. However, the vast majority of population of Belarus is Belarusians, but the objective is the extreme spread of Russian language usage. In the thesis, the Russian speaking population along with native inhabitants and other minorities will be considered as the subjects of impact for Russian authorities. The aim of the work: The aim of the work is to find out how have Russian media campaigns been describing relevant events since 2014, comparing Belarus and Lithuania. The aim is either to prove that these campaigns can be considered as a threat, or soft power tool. The comparative case is not as ordinary as comparison of two EU member states, for example. However, Belarus and Lithuania are in various political and military alliances, such as the EU and EEU, NATO and CSTO, what makes the analysis of the case much more complicated.
2 Vladimir Sazonov, Russian Information Campaign Against The Ukrainian State And Defence Forces. C. 4-8. 3 Piotr Buras. Ten global consequences of the Ukraine crisis. 2014. 10 Object: Communication role of Russian medias in the near abroad between 01.2014 and 12.2019; Subject: Content of Russian media campaigns abroad, particularly in Belarus and Lithuania; Hypothesis: Russian medias are using the misinformation as a tool in news campaigns; Objectives: - To find out and describe pro-Russian media sources, their ways of origin, the main issues and problems they write about, and the analytical content of information; - To define and test the main narratives toward the EU, NATO, and pro-Western countries presented in Russian medias; - To determine the threat of Russian media campaigns in region; Research question refers to “How does Russian propaganda media describe the essence and deliver a news content, possessing a threat to the public?” Structure of the work: The thesis contains three chapters, apart the introduction and conclusion parts. The first chapter includes the methodology and general descriptions of the methods, theories, and literature, that shall be applied in the thesis. In methodology chapter, there is a framing of selected topics to be tested and analysed. There shall be frames chosen to be tested in the research part of the thesis. The next chapter, numbered as the second, contains the description and analysis of the trilateral relations of Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia. Moreover, the chapter explains how are these states interconnected and how do they interact. The analysis of Belarus-Lithuania bilateral relations shall describe the brief history of these countries, including their common history, as well as chapter also contains the sum up of the current problems of two countries’ relations as for 2019. After the research methods are listed and explained, and the prehistory is clear, there shall be the quantitative and qualitative research conducted. The quantitative research in the thesis implies the obtaining data about the frames mentioning and frequency over google and in-website search. After collecting the necessary data, the quantitative research shall be conducted using charts. This research in the thesis shall imply the more detailed analysis of frames which are tested. For the analysis, fragments taken from articles shall be cited and their content shall be analysed. As a conclusion, there shall be listed frames that were mentioned by medias more often. These frames and the most often used narratives shall be shortly explained. 11 1. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: MEDIA, PROPAGANDA, AND SOFT POWER)
This chapter shall include main research methods along with their description, that will be used in the thesis, and the literature analysis. Since the thesis shall contain the analysis of media sources, and their role as a tool for impact, the attention is drawn toward such concepts, as soft power, propaganda, fake news, and the psychological perspective of mass medias. The literature listed in this chapter covers such topics, as bilateral relations of Belarus and Lithuania, Belarus and Russia, and Lithuania and Russia, analysing their geopolitical role. Selected sources describe Russian narratives in medias as well what is crucial for the topic. Considering all possible impact, there is the substantial thing to be taken into account. The thing is the psychological perspective, in other word, the attention should be drawn to some psychological factors, which are also used in the media and can affect population by its permanent use of media. For example, Enikolopov and Petrova explains the cases when access to the mass media sources had affected the elections in Brazil, where districts covered by the particular radio differed from other electoral units over the elections. The same was noticed in the case of Russian Parliamentary elections, in 1999. The particular case nature was defined by the availability of state-controlled TV channels compared to NTV, which was meant to be opposition. This study determines the impact of mass media in general, or as the research named, Mass media and its influence on behaviour4. Authors make evidences of how do mass medias make influence on population and various societal challenges, such as immigration, abortion, nationalism, economics and other. In terms of the impact of the mass medias, main kinds and forms of fake news or propaganda, these definitions have to be explained first. According to Wardle and Derakhshan, there is the general concept of Information Disorder, which is qualified by false and harmful types. In their turn, false information can be expressed by misinformation, meaning false connection and misleading content, while harmful information can be expressed by leaks or hate speech. However, these two types in conjunction draw the disinformation, which implies false and manipulated context with the aim of harm5. Russian medias in Belarus can be defined and exampled in various ways. In the research published by Yeliseyeu, the issue of Anti-Belarusian segment in Russian medias is studied. Authors explored the most used narratives, stereotypes, and disinformation in the analysed media
4 Enikolopov. Mass media and its influence on behaviour. C. 1-3, 15. 5 Claire Wardle. INFORMATION DISORDER: Toward an interdisciplinary famework for research and policy making C. 4-6. 12 sources. Among another broadcasters, Russian medias in this research refers to mass media sources which depend on Russia or they are financed by Russia. In the research, all medias are studied in case of each region of Belarus6. The Sputnik, in particular, was registered by Russian Federation authorities and its establisher is Federation Agency “Rossiya Segodnya”, also known as Russia Today or RT7. Another example of existent Russian interest in Baltic States audience is the Baltnews.lt and Rubaltic.ru. Both are registered as mass media by Russian authorities’ agency “Roskomnadzor”8,9. Propaganda generally refers to the course of action in mass media sources with the aim of misinforming local population in various countries. Considering the separate kind of propaganda, the Russian Propaganda, which also refers to Kremlin’s narrative spin, the feature is its prevalence over the world. As Todd S. Helmus et al. in their report for RAND corporation mention, the Russian Propaganda is not only about its existence in Eastern Europe. However, it’s also spread across the world, in variety of languages. Author also refers to the impact of Russian Propaganda during the actions, made by Russian government toward another states’ sovereignty and integrity10. Threat to democracy in this thesis generally refers to the expanding the impact on another state by promoting one’s state values to another state population, with such possible consequences as the impact on election campaigns or regulating public opinion. Soft Power is the definition used for the description of state intension to make a cultural impact instead of implementing force. Comparing to hard power, which were used to be implemented before 21st century, the soft power itself is more sophisticated course of action. In the research regarding Russia and its soft power tools, post-Soviet countries, which are also members of EaP are considered and examined. The research covers such topics and tools of Russian soft power, as Russian Orthodox Church, the concept of Russkiy Mir in medias11. Research was prepared by the group of analytics representing each EaP country. Since Belarus and Lithuania mentally and geographically proximate one to another, the topics regarding the same region and the continent problems can be relevant while implementing them to these two countries comparison. The most known and consequent occurrence was the
6 Andrei Yeliseyeu. Fundamental Shifts in anti-Belarusian disinformation and propaganda: analysis of quantitative and qualitative changes. EAST center, 2019. 7 Sputnik. About. 8 Baltnews.lt 9 RuBaltic.ru About. 10 Todd C. Helmus. Russian Social Media Influence. RAND, 2018. C. 8-11. 11 Antoaneta Dimitrova. The Elements of Russia’s Soft Power: Channels, Tools, and Actors Promoting Russian Influence in Eastern Partnership Countries. EU-STRAT, 2017. C. 10-11. 13 Ukrainian Crisis in general, meaning all the events occurred in its frames, beginning with Maidan, and continuing to the Armed Conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Russian authorities’ course of actions aimed for making an impact in Western countries is discussed by Todd C. Helmus, Elizabeth Bodine-Baron, and oth in the research prepared for Rand Corporation. This research shall be used to define and describe the essence of the Russian propaganda and influence. In the research, countries of the Eastern Europe are analysed in terms of Russian medias is social media for those countries12. The research shall not be used in full, but the methodology and some features shall be considered. Since the purpose of the paper is to encompass the soft power and its features with the following aim to apply this theory on the examined problem, there was the review of Nye’s published Soft Power theory research, selected for the comparison of soft power and hard power, written by Li Lin in 2013. In the review, it is discussed the written by Nye concept as a strategically new feature in the International Relations system. It is highlighted the role of culture and dialogue between countries instead of the main hard power features, such as the force, stress, and command13. Generally, the point of view in the research is related to the Information War, Lucas and Pomeranzev highlight the possibility of Russian Propaganda to target the Polish-Russian ethnic minority audience in Lithuania. There are two ways chosen and studied. The first method of Russian Propaganda refers to attempts of making cooperation between Russian and Polish politicians in Lithuania, where Lithuania itself is considered as an actor, which behaves burdensomely towards Polish-speaking ethnic minority. The main narratives, published by pro- Kremlin sources, are addressed towards NATO, and Lithuania membership in NATO. Authors describe negative events mentioning in Russian medias14. The history of Belarusian nation is described in the Per Anders Ruding 2015 review in The Journal of Belarusian Studies on the issue of Belarus history. The review describes the appearance and the beginning of statehood in Belarus. In the particular chapter, author includes the issue of Belarusian Nationalism comparing it to Ukrainian Nationalism, and, as a result, he underlines the main development distinction feature. This feature is the difference between Belarusian and Ukrainian languages, which refers to the earlier popularization of Ukrainian language in comparison with Belarusian language. Moreover, author describes the problematic of the Belarus as a state for the period after the end of the 1st World War. Research fragment contains the
12 Todd C. Helmus. RAND, 2018. C. 10-12. 13 Li Lin. Joseph Nye’s Soft Power Theory and Its Revelation Towards Ideological and Political Education. SciencePG, 2017. C. 69-70. 14 Edward Lucas. Winning the Information War. CEPA, 2016. C. 28-30. 14 information regarding the formation of Independent Belarus state. In the thesis, this research shall explain the essence of Belarusian nationalism and also reflects the its issue and discussion in Russian medias15. The different perspective on the history of Belarus is discussed in Shraibman summary on the issue of Lukašenka regime. In this research, author describes and discovers feature of Belarusian government, the regime, with evidences made in view of opinion polls and infographics. Shraibman refers to IISEPS conducted opinion polls on such topics, as the foreign policy of Belarus in terms of joining international organizations, and views on the USSR16.
15 Per Anders Rudling. The Beginnings of Modern Belarus: Identity, Nation, and Politics in a European Borderland. 2015. C. 116-118. 16 Artyom Shraibman. The House That Lukashenko Built. Carnegie Moscow Center, 2018. C. 4,11,14-16. 15 1.1. Methodology
The listed medias were selected by the such factors, as language, the content origin, comments available, and the how are they tied with Russia. Media: Applied for Belarus: • Sputnik is Russian state-owned mass media channel which broadcasts in many countries, especially in the Eastern Europe region17,18; Sputnik is available in Belarus in Belarusian and Russian languages. The fact of Sputnik availability in Belarus in each state official language makes possible to cover both native speakers and Russian speaking population. In the thesis, Russian language versions of Belarusian versions of Sputnik shall be analysed. The website is sputnik.by (Sputnik). • RuBaltic.ru is also the Russian media network registered by Roskomnadzor. This media source was created in 2012. Beside Russian speaking population, the media channel targets also Belarusian, Latvian, Lithuanian, and Polish speaking population of respective countries19. Rubaltic.ru shall apply for Belarus through articles published in Russian language regarding topics related to Belarus. • Komsomolskaya Pravda is the Roskomnadzor registered mass media channel in Belarus20. While studying in the research, KP.BY applies for Belarus. Applied for Lithuania: • Sputniknews.lt is registered by Roskomnadzor, which is Russian authorities’ organization, controlling medias. Lithuanian version is available in Lithuanian and Russian languages. • RuBaltic.ru has the same origin as the Sputnik, and is also registered by Roskomnadzor. Moreover, the obvious fact is that website belongs to Russian domain zone. • Baltnews.lt is another mass media website registered by Roskomnadzor. In contrast, this media source is available in Russian language only.
17 Sputnik. About 18 Sputniknews.lt. About. 19 Rubaltic.ru. 20 Komsomolskaya Pravda. 16 Quantitative research Article selection and search All necessary and suitable for the research information in terms of articles shall be searched via google.com using the searching operator for the functionalization in the following view: the search phrase_site:
Qualitative research The research shall be conducted the qualitative research which encompasses Documentary analysis; this kind of analysis shall help to find out various studies, researches, and observations, on the studied issue. Documentaries which shall be used are kinds of literature studying or describing the issue of the examined problem. Content-analysis of the material (e.g. articles, analytical texts, summaries, reviews) published in Russia sponsored and pro-Russian medias. This analysis is necessary for defining the main topics discussed by these medias. The full research shall be conducted by obtaining the approximate or certain number of the particular topic. Mass medias which shall be analysed in this thesis are following ones: Sputnik, Rubaltic, Baltnews, as the main international medias owned by Russia. The research in the thesis includes analysing narratives in reviewed medias for the following topics: Ukraine after 2014, Political Groups in Belarus, Belarus-Russian Relations, NATO, EU membership. Timeframe: The issue of the existing problems in bilateral relations between Russia and Baltic, and even between Belarus foreign relations with Lithuania and Russia, has been around for years after the collapse of the USSR. However, the most notable decline occurred after the Conflict between 17 Russia and Ukraine started. The most relevant events are dated starting from 2014. In the table below the significant geopolitical events took place will be listed for each country.
Timeframe table: Belarus Lithuania Ukraine/Russia/Rest Europe/Rest World 2014 Signing the Minsk Protocol May: Presidential Ukraine: Annexation of between Ukraine government, elections; LNG Crimea; War in Donbass; Russian government, OSCE, terminal launching; Presidential and Legislative and rebels Elections; MH17; 2015 Accession to the EEU; Accession to the Terrorists’ attacks in Europe; Presidential elections; eurozone (euro area); 2016 Legislative elections; Legislative elections; US Presidential elections; Russian Legislative elections; 2017 Military trainings Zapad-2017; Germany: Legislative 2017 Belarusian protests; elections; 2018 100th anniversary of the 100 years of Russia: Presidential elections; Belarusian People’s Republic Lithuanian (BNR); Independency; 2019 Legislative elections; Presidential Ukraine: Presidential and December protests in Minsk elections; EP Legislative elections; against integration with Russia; elections; EU: EP elections;
18 2014; Generally describing Belarus in 2014, its key role could be defined as the mediator country in Russia-Ukraine relations. The year the Annexation of Crimea occurred, for Belarus was the possibility to draw attention of various countries by holding the IIHF World Championship. This Championship occurred in May 2014. Apart this event in Minsk, Belarus, country also provided Russia-Ukraine Conflict sides the platform for dialogue. During the official talks between France, Germany, OSCE, rebels, Ukraine, and Russia in Minsk, two presidents of the two last listed countries had their first ever meet. During the meeting, the Minsk Protocol on establishing peace in East Ukraine was signed. 2014 was the year the Russia-Ukraine Conflict occurred, MH17 was shot down at the territory the Conflict took place21. 2015; 2015 began for both Belarus and Lithuania with joining international economic units. Thus, Belarus joined the EAEU, and Lithuania became a member of the Eurozone. For both countries it meant the large reform in field of economics. Indeed, for Lithuania beside the fiscal reform, the introduction of euro currency meant the more closed integration with the EU. However, Belarus did not change its currency while being integrated with EEU. For the EU, the same year turned into massive terrorists’ attacks, that has the significant meaning for societies and their integrity22. 2016; This year could be described as the elections’ year, based on the fact of held elections in Belarus, Lithuania, Russia, and the USA. Usually, the time before elections, or so-called electoral campaign, is actively used by mass media to describe the participants of the campaign. 2017; For Belarus, during 2017, military trainings called Zapad-2017 occurred and took place on the territory of Belarus. In the EU, 2017 was the year the largest country by population in the EU had a legislative elections. After the Migrant crisis, it was the first elections that were held in Germany. The main objective was the relatively fresh party for German politics, named Alternative for Germany. As the most powerful economic system in the whole Europe, Germany as a global actor has a meaning both for Belarus, and Lithuania. Moreover, mass media used to write and inform about various global events23. 2018;
21 Mario Damen. Three Eastern Partnership neighbours: Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus. European Parliament, 2019. 22 Ольга Савкив. «Мир» в 2015 году: ИГ, мигранты, волна терактов, стихийные бедствия и нефтяное пике. TUT.by, 2015. 23 Ультраправую AfD активно поддержали в большинстве земель экс-ГДР. Sputnik, 2017.
19 In 2018 Belarus and Lithuania celebrated their 100 anniversary since their national independent states appeared. Lithuania celebrated independence anniversary first, in the middle of February, then Belarusian society marked the anniversary with the numerous mass events. A week before the celebrations in Belarus, Russia held the Presidential elections, where the result was the victory of Vladimir Putin and his 2nd term in a row since 2012. In fact, his term which has started after 2018 elections, was the 4th in his life as a President of Russia 24. 2019; Belarus and Russia had started official talks to each other on the issue of the Integration implementation in terms of the Union State of Belarus and Russia. The talks and the intension to sign “road maps” by the end of 2019, caused protests in Minsk, where people massively tried to express their disagree with the possible integration.
1.2. Frames
Considering all events listed in the timeframe for 2014-2019 period, there shall be chosen such global and regional actors, as the EU, NATO, Belarus, Lithuania, Russia, and Ukraine. In terms of the framing Belarus case, the Belarus-EU relations shall be framed as “Belarus-EU”, the Integration of Belarus with Russia is framed as “Belarus Russia Integration”, the opposition in Belarus is framed as “Belarus Opposition”, the construction of the Nuclear Power Plant in Astravets is framed as “ANPP”, and the search form is “Belarus NPP”/«БелАЭС», the War in Ukraine is framed as “War in Ukraine”. For the Lithuanian case, the issue of Lithuania-EU related topics is framed as “Lithuania EU”, the issue of internal relation between Lithuania and NATO is framed as “Lithuania NATO”, narratives search related to the nationalism in Lithuania is framed as “Lithuania Nationalism”, and the issue of the War in Ukraine is framed as “War in Ukraine”.
24 Olga Loyko. Жесткий 2018-й. Горькие потери, яркие победы, громкие скандалы и большие маневры уходящего года. TUT.by, 2018. 20 Framing Belarus case: “Belarus EU” Describing and analysing Bilateral relation of Belarus and the EU; “Belarus Russia The keyword refers to proceeding the integration of Union State Integration” between Belarus and Russia; “Belarus Opposition” The frame analyses the mentioning and description of the Opposition in Belarus by Russian media; “ANPP”/ “NPP The frame refers to the search of articles related to the construction Belarus” of NPP in Belarus; “War in Ukraine” The frame describes the Sputnik narratives toward the War in East Ukraine;
Framing Lithuania case:
“Lithuania EU” Internal relations between the EU and Lithuania; “Lithuania NATO” Internal relations and cooperation between NATO and Lithuania; “Lithuania The frame “nationalism” shall be tested, because Russia often mentions Nationalism” and describes the nationalism in Lithuania; “ANPP”/ “NPP The frame refers to the search of articles related to the construction of Belarus” NPP in Belarus; “War in Ukraine” The frame describes the Sputnik narratives toward the War in East Ukraine;
The framing of events and keywords implies the hypothesis study on how does Russian propaganda use the particular word or phrases to deliver information. The frequency of used keywords was chosen by the way Russian medias used to imagine Baltic states region.
21 2. INTERSTATE RELATIONS OF BELARUS, LITHUANIA, AND RUSSIA
The chapter shall analyse the historical background features, and the nature of modern relations between Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia as for 2019. Firstly, Belarus and Lithuania shall be compared with Russia, and then there will be a brief description of Belarus-Lithuania relations. Among countries which use soft power tool for promoting their culture, language, and other values, Russia does the same. However, there is a distinction between the promoted values to be examined in the thesis as well, and in the particular chapter. While studying the material in Russian medias, the attention should be drawn and the hypothesis tested, whether the mission of Russian medias is to promote its culture, language or the point of view on the most discussed and societal meaningful topics. Based on the reason of necessity to support the Russian culture abroad, the plenty of various Russian broadcasting mass medias exist. Both Russian-speaking population either the intension of Russian authorities to make Russian language and culture more common are the causes for these medias to exist. This set of actions could be equated to the BBC, Deutsche Welle, or Al Jazeera existence and functioning. These medias are owned by the UK, Germany, and Quatar respectively. For example, there is a possibility to learn English and German languages on the BBC and Deutsche Welle accordingly. In this case, language could be defined as a tool of the particular country to expand the amount of people speaking this language. This chapter generalizes the relation between three countries which are studied in the thesis. Generally considering the Russian medias existence in Belarus, the political proximity of these countries should be kept in mind. However, according to Thinktanks.by the most viewed source in online mass media is Tut.by, as for august, 2017. The KP, also known as Komslomolskaya Pravda was ranked the 4th. The KP is the Russian media source registered by Roskomnadzor. The Sputnik was ranked the 11th 25.
2.1. Bilateral relations of Belarus and Russia
Bilateral relations analytical description of Belarus with Russia, included in the research, could be the indicator of the main problems, their reasons, causes, and features. The purpose is to analyse the relations in general, highlighting main features and correctly assume the research problem.
25 Рейтинг посещаемости белорусских интернет-СМИ в августе. Thinktanks.by, 2017. 22 Reviewing the history of Belarus as a sovereign and independent state, since the beginning of 1990s, Belarus-Russia relations can be divided into two specified periods. The first period refers to the very outset of Belarus after the sovereignty was declared on 27 June 1990, and the ending of this period can be dated between the first Presidential elections and the 1995 Referendum. During this period Belarus began establishing its independency, and the main features were such, as the restoration of historical symbols, introduction of Belarusian language as the only official language in Republic, establishment of citizenship institute, obtaining the international recognition and making steps toward comprehensive cooperation with other subjects of International Law by establishing the diplomatic missions26. The critical juncture was the introducing the Constitution of Belarus, with the article regarding the requirement for presidential candidate age, that equals 35 years and over. This paragraph in the Constitution allowed A.Lukašenka to be the candidate in the Belarusian Presidential Election, in June 1994. Elections result was the Lukašenka victory in the first and second round, gaining 44% and 81% accordingly. The leader of the Belarusian People’s Front Zianon Pazniak and the Ex-speaker of Parliament Stanislau Shuškevič defeated in the first round, with the respective 10% and 12%, and the Prime-minister Viačaslau Kebič in the second round gaining 14% of those who voted27. These elections are referred by some analysts to be the only democratic and transparent over the history of Belarus. Since A. Lukašenka had entered office in 1994, in its foreign policy, Belarus has chosen Russia as the main international partner. This choice occurred as a result of a referendum initiated by Lukashenko. Moreover, the Referendum results were not recognized by the opposition, neither by international actors, such as OSCE and USA. Belarus and Russia form the Union State since 1995, but in the fact they are both sovereign states. The first Presidential elections in Belarus matters because they can be also defined as the turning point in the history of Belarus, which caused a lot of consequences for Belarus and its role in International Relations system. The whole chain of political events in Belarus after the first Presidential elections had defined the way of the development in Belarus. The result of those elections reflected the position in Belarusian society and became the reason for Belarus to turn into the authoritarian power in Eastern Europe28. As for 2019, there are still efforts made to unify Belarus and Russia into the one state, which is going to be called as Union State. However, there are no clear objectives for this process to be completed, neither sides can agree on the basic principles of how would this political and
26 Steven M. Hoffman. LITHUANIAN AND BELARUSIAN NATIONAL IDENTITY IN THE CONTEXT OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION. Vytautas Magnus University, 2018. C. 34. 27 Сведения об итогах выборов Президента Республики Беларусь. 28 Artyom Shraibman. 2018. C. 1. 23 economic Unit function. Considering the societal aspect, it is almost impossible to find the clear research of the public opinion on the Unification issue.
2.2. Bilateral relations of Lithuania and Russia
In contrast, Lithuania and Russia have more complicated relations, mostly because of political and historical reasons. During the first Soviet occupation in 1941, and after the 2nd World War, Soviet Authorities decided to carry out deportations from their new regions in the western part. Lithuania was not the only country with population that was sentenced to deportation. There were also inhabitants sent to far Russian regions from Latvia, Estonia, West Belarus, West Ukraine, and Crimea. However, Belarus has more Russian-speaking population, especially among ethnic Belarusians. In terms of today’s Russian politics to take after the USSR as its assignee, Lithuania is not satisfied with it, keeping in mind that the course of actions made by USSR in Lithuania damaged its statehood and culture29. After the restoration of independence, Lithuania had chosen the way to integrate itself into Western Community. Since Lithuania has the common border with Russian enclave, that is Kaliningrad region, and is a member state of NATO at the same time, Russia does not appreciate such a neighbourhood. These positions of two states do not allow them to develop bilateral relations in a friendly way. Another obstacle, that makes economic perspective and complicates trade relations is membership of both countries in the various economic organizations. Indeed, for Belarus it’s much easier make a trade with Russian comparing to Lithuania. In contrast, for Lithuania it is more convenient to proceed the trade with Poland or Latvia. The main difference, considering Belarus and Lithuania in their relations with Russia, is the language spoken in both countries. Belarus has two official languages, Belarusian and Russian, when Lithuania has Lithuanian language as the only official language.
2.3. Belarus-Lithuania Relations
Belarus and Lithuania have a lot in common, and especially measuring the historical perspective. For centuries these two countries were the parts of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, forming the large territorial unit in the Eastern Europe, and connecting two seas, the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. Belarus and Lithuania proclaimed their statehood first in 1918, following the end of the 1st World War30. But Lithuania succeeded in building its own state more, while Belarus was soon after declared independence occupied by Second Polish Republic and USSR31. In terms of
29 Lithuania. Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs. 30 Steven M. Hoffman. Vytautas Magnus University, 2018. C. 71. 31 Steven M. Hoffman. Vytautas Magnus University, 2018. C. 79, 82-83. 24 reviewing Belarus and Lithuania as the parts of the USSR, the difference to be highlighted is the time frames. Three out of five current Belarusian regions joined the USSR from 20 to 25 years earlier than other two and whole Lithuania, so this is the reason to assume the fact that Belarus was “sovietised” more and the Russification policy had a bigger impact than Lithuania in general32. Both Belarus and Lithuania proclaimed their sovereignty and independence again in the late 1980s, early 1990s, restoring their historical symbols. Formal relations between countries were stablished by the end of 199233. Since Lithuania had a clear objective to join the EU and NATO, while Belarusian authorities could not distinctly form the foreign policy strategies, two countries had started diverging. In this way, Belarus gave rise to the Union State with Russia in 199634. Indeed, Lithuania joined the EU and NATO in 2004. NATO membership provides the guarantee to be protected by the alliance in case of attack on this state, according with the article no. 5 of the Treaty of NATO. The integration of Lithuania into the Western community was obvious. Considering these events, the outcome can be presented by the current political positions of these countries and their being in various political and economic unions. In 2010s the relations worsen for the reasons of human rights violation in Belarus and the Astravets Nuclear Power Plant construction proximately to the Lithuanian border and its capital, Vilnius. Obviously, it may seem strange that Belarusian government decided to build the nuclear power plant in the extreme proximity to the state border, which is also the EU external border. The diversity of Belarus and Lithuania as global actors is obvious enough. Belarus has more ties with Russia, and is the member of same international organizations as Russia is, e.g. CIS, CSTO, EEU. Lithuania, in its turn, is integrated into Euro Atlantic organizations, such as the EU, and NATO. This position of each state makes the diversity clear. Two states either have a various relations with Russia, basically because of their foreign policy principles.
32 Artyom Shraibman. Carnegie Moscow Center,2018. C. 10. 33 Steven M. Hoffman. Vytautas Magnus University, 2018. 34 Artyom Shraibman. Carnegie Moscow Center, 2018. C. 4,8.
25 3. MEDIA ANALYSIS In the chapter, the quantitative and qualitative researches themselves shall be conducted, and then, the frequency and fragments of articles inside the frame shall be described. Each of the frame for particular country shall be tested in the five years period, i.e. starting from 1 Jan 2014, and ending at 31 Dec 2019. First of all, there is a quantitative research conducted, which is divided into the general analysing of frames frequency in particular media sources, and then there is a comparison of all frames used for each mass media. After, the qualitative research shall be done by detailed analysing of each frame using fragments from the most popular articles in the search results. In the obtained results, there shall be main narratives highlighted and discussed for each selected frame.
3.1. Russian medias in Belarus
There are plenty of medias in Belarus which could be called Russian. They are supposed to be either sponsored by Russian authorities or created by pro-Russian groups in Belarus. This chapter analyses published content in those media sources. The most common Russian registered source is Sputnik, owned by Rossiya Segodnya, as it was determined in the theoretical part. The Sputnik broadcasts both in Belarusian and Russian languages. Other media sources proclaiming Russian values shall be analysed beside Sputnik. The information and publications analysis to be sequentially delivered in the quantitative analysis by the year;
26 3.2. Belarus frames
Belarus mentions in Sputnik.by 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 "Belarus-EU" "Belarus "Opposition in "Astravets "War in Russia Belarus" Nuclear Power Ukraine" Integration" Plant"
Belarus/ Sputnik.by
Chart 3.1. The Chart 3.1. shows that Russian language version of Belarusian Sputnik covers barely even all crucial topics for the chosen period, according to the methodology selection. Indeed, the EU was mentioned more often than other topics, even the War in the South-Eastern part of Ukraine. The EU related frame is not only about the communication of Belarus with the EU, but also could cover other topics, which even not related to their bilateral relations. The EU is a global actor of enormous size in terms of economics and politics, and this means the broad variety of issues which can be tied to this frame.
Belarus related mentions in Sputnik.by by year 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 "Belarus EU" "Belarus Russia "Belarus "ANPP" "War in Ukraine" Integration" Opposition"
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Chart 3.2. In the chart it is clear, that three selected frames have a stable growth, especially for the period since 2015 to 2019. These are “Belarus EU”, “Belarus Russia Integration”, and “Belarus Opposition” frames. “ANPP” frame has an unstable dynamics, where the most active periods for publications were in 2017 and 2019. The frequency of publications related to the EU, the 27 Integration, and the opposition in Belarus in 2019 exceeds indicators of all previous years gathered together.
Belarus-related frames mentions in KP.BY 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 "Belarus EU" "Belarus Russia "Opposition in Astravets "War in Ukraine" Integration" Belarus" Nuclear Power Plant
Belarus/ in KP.BY
Chart 3.3 The Chart 3.3. shows the local newspaper, which is considered as one among the most read, mostly covers the topics of Belarus foreign policy, depicting the Conflict in East Ukraine and bilateral relations of Belarus and the EU
8000
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0 "Belarus EU" "Belarus Russia "Belarus Opposition" "ANPP" "War in Ukraine" Integration" 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Chart 3.4. Results obtained by the detailed search of the certain frames for the KP.by media source explicates the significance of topics related to external actors and events, e.g. the Conflict in Eastern region of Ukraine, or the EU. 28
Belarus-related frames mentions in RuBaltic.ru 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 "Belarus EU" "Belarus Russia "Belarus Astravets Nuclear War in Ukraine Integration" Opposition" Power Plant
Belarus mentioned in rubaltic.lru
Chart 3.5. The Chart 3.5. shows the frequency of frames studied regarding the media source RuBaltic.ru. As the result, this media primarily covers the topics of Belarus-Lithuania relations, and the problem of the Conflict in East Ukraine.
Belarus-related frames mentions in RuBaltic.ru 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 "Belarus EU" "Belarus Russia "Belarus Opposition" "ANPP" "War in Ukraine" Integration"
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Chart 3.6. The chart analyses the frequency of mentioning Belarus-related frames by year for 2014- 2019 period. RuBaltic.ru has some similarities in mentions frequency with KP.by. In this way, RuBaltic.ru mentions “Belarus EU” and “War in Ukraine” frames almost as often as KP.by.
29
Summarized mentions of Belarus-related frames in Russian medias 16000
14000
12000
10000 8000
6000
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2000 0 "Belarus EU" "Belarus Russia "Belarus "Astravets NPP" "War in Ukraine" Integration" Opposition"
Sputnik.by KP.by Rubaltic.ru
Chart 3.7. The chart with summarized results of how frequent are frames used in the examined media can have a following explanation: Media sources which exist in Belarus and can be considered either pro-Kremlin or Russian follow objectives of informing local Russian-speaking population about the globally significant events. The topic of the Conflict in Ukraine drew the attention most. The content of this and other frames shall be discussed in the qualitative research. One more crucial and often mentioned frame refers to Belarus and the EU. The issue of Belarus-EU bilateral relations has both public and geopolitical significance and it is obvious, that mass media sources will try to deliver this topic to the targeted audience. The amount of mentions of “Belarus EU” analysed frame in Sputnik.by has grown from 6 in 2014 to 1800 in 2019. KP.by amount of mentions “Belarus EU” grows from 197 to 1560 in 2014 and 2019 accordingly. The similar can be seen as RuBaltic.ru mentions this frame 75 times in 2014, and 1600 in 2019. Considering the proposed integration of Belarus and Russia, or the frame “Belarus Russia Integration”, the number of mentions by various media is pretty different. For example, Sputnik.by mentions the frame 1 time in 2014, and 983 times in 2019. While Rubaltic.ru started mentioning this frame 28 times in 2015, and increased to 119 in 2019. KP.by had a growth from 189 to 385 mentions in 2015 and 2019 accordingly. The frame “Belarus Opposition” which refers to the functioning of opposition structures, such as political parties in Belarus, was actively mentioned in all three analysed media sources since 2014 to 2019. Considering Sputnik.by, the frame was mentioned 1 time in 2014, and 878 in 2019, and had the tendency of growth. The similar can be observed in KP.by articles relating to 30 the frame, where the amount of mentions grew from 68 to 601 from 2014 to 2019 accordingly. In rubaltic.ru, this frame was not actively mentioned during the selected period of time. The only exception can be shown in 2019, when the amount of mentions reached the 104 times. The Issue of Belarusian Nuclear Power Plant, which is framed as “ANPP” or “БелАЭC“ is more common in Sputnik.by. Other media sources mention this topic more rarely. For the specified period, in 2014, Sputnik.by has mentioned Ukraine only five times. Probably, because the media was just established, what can be proved by fact of publishing articles in December, 2014. For 2015 and 2016, the amount of mentions was 200 and 350 respectively. In 2017, 2018, and 2019, Sputnik.by mentioned “War in Ukraine” 636, 471, and 1320 times respectively.
31 3.3. Russian medias in Lithuania
The key difference of Lithuania, comparing to Belarus, is the number of Russian speakers, and, consequently, the necessity of having Russian speaking medias. In spite of barely the same percent of Russians as an ethnic minority in Lithuania and Belarus, appr. 5% and 7% respectively, Belarus suffered more than Lithuania during the Soviet occupation, when most of people underwent the russification politics. Still, in 2019 mass media market of Lithuania is available for the Russian-speaking audience as well, what is the logical reason for the existence of Russian media resources, especially those registered in Russia. As it was written in the methodology, three sources of information are considered in the case of Lithuania.
3.4. Lithuania frames
Lithuania related frames mentioning in Sputniknews.lt 1200
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0 "Lithuania EU" Lithuania NATO" "Lithuania "ANPP" "War in Ukraine" Nationalism"
Lithuania mentions in Sputniknews.lt
Chart 3.8. The Chart 3.8. shows the frequency of each frame used in Russian language version of Lithuanian website of Sputnik media source. The most frequent frames are the EU and NATO. Since the Sputnik tries to cover as many topics as possible, such topics as ANPP construction and the Conflict in East Ukraine can be also met in the examined source, but less than the assessment geopolitical role of Lithuania in terms of its membership in the EU and NATO. 32
Lithuania related frames mentioning in Sputniknews.lt
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 "Lithuania EU" "Lithuania "Lithuania "ANPP" "War in Ukraine" NATO" Nationalism"
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Chart 3.9. This chart contains the outcome of the search split by years for the Lithuanian Russian language version of Sputnik. Obviously, for Sputnik the issue was Lithuanian foreign policy, and sometimes the informing about Nuclear Power Plant in Astravets and the Conflict in Ukraine.
Lithuania related frames mentioning in Rubaltic.ru 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 "Lithuania EU" "Lithuania NATO" "Lithuania "ANPP" War in Ukraine Nationalism"
Lithuania mentions in Rubaltic.ru
Chart 3.10. The media source RuBaltic.ru over the 2014-2019 period used to describe the Conflict in Ukraine and the EU related issues more often than others. Frames, such as “Lithuania NATO”, “ANPP” were met rarer in comparison with Sputniknews.lt. However, the frame “Lithuania Nationalism” was mentioned more often than in all other media sources. 33
Lithuania related frames mentioning in RuBaltic.ru 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 "Lithuania EU" "Lithuania NATO" "Lithuania "ANPP" "War in Ukraine" Nationalism"
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Chart 3.11. This chart underlines the importance of the EU and the War in Ukraine related frames for RuBaltic.ru. However, such frames as NATO-related issue is also sometimes mentioned in the analysed media source.
Lithuania-related mentions in baltnews.lt 3000
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0 "Lithuania EU" "Lithuania NATO" "Lithuania "ANPP" "War in Ukraine" Nationalism"
Lithuania mentions in baltnews.lt
Chart 3.12. The chart 3.12. can refer to the inclination of the particular Russian media to describe relations of Lithuania and NATO more active and often than other topics. 34
Lithuania-related mentions in baltnews.lt 3500
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0 "Lithuania EU" "Lithuania NATO" "Lithuania "ANPP" "War in Ukraine" Nationalism"
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Chart 3.13. The Table 3.13., indicates that Baltnews.lt was active in publishing articles related to studied frames in 2019, and less active in 2018. During the other examined period, this media source was not that active.
Summarized mentions of Lithuania-related frames in Russian Media 6000
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0 "Lithuania EU" "Lithuania NATO" "Lithuania "ANPP" "War in Ukraine" Nationalism"
Sputniknews.lt RuBaltic.ru Baltnews.lt
Chart 3.14. This chart makes a conclusion for examining frames chosen for case of Lithuania. The amount of articles published by RuBaltic.ru exceeds the amount of Sputniknews.lt, in particular. Baltnews.lt is mostly concerned about the issue of NATO. 35
In the Lithuania case, Russian media sources were quite active while describing the foreign policy of Lithuania, with pretty high number of mentions for such frames, as “Lithuania EU”, and “Lithuania NATO”. Thus, Sputniknews.lt mentioned both EU and NATO almost equally in terms of frequency, while Rubaltic.ru and Baltnews.lt specified the particular frame. EU was mentioned mostly in Rubaltic.ru, and NATO in Baltnews.lt. Considering the frame “War in Ukraine”, each media mentioned it often, especially Rubaltic.ru. Analysis, that was conducted by quantitative method and mentions of certain events, showed that the importance of studied events or assessment of situation may be taken into account in different ways in various media sources. Russian media in Belarus pays not as much attention to the opposition as they mention the conflict in eastern Ukraine. To the contrary, Russian sources in Lithuania mostly concerned about Lithuania relations with the EU or NATO.
3.5. Qualitative Analysis
Before examining each country by selected frames, there are common frames for both countries. The first frame refers to the construction of power plant in Belarus next to Belarus- Lithuania border in Astravets, and this issue is relevant for both countries, especially for Lithuania, based on the fact of NPP proximity to the capital of Lithuania, Vilnius. Frames matched for RuBaltic.ru mass media source. There is an article found in RuBaltic.ru in-website search. The article title refers to advantages of Nuclear Power Plant and questions the position of Lithuania. Moreover, the article argues the reason of unsatisfaction coming from Lithuania, discussing two obstacles on the construction of NPP in Astravets. First, there is a narrative stating the possible consequences of accident, in case it is, that vast part of Lithuanian territory could be polluted. However, the following narrative questions the first one and states that Lithuanian government uses the fact of Russian nuclear organization Rosatom involvement in the project, that is the reason of dissatisfaction. Certainly, the issue of location matters. Since two states are various by their interdependence with other states, the negotiation process between each other can be complicated. The issue of the Conflict in Ukraine also matched in RuBaltic.ru media source. Considering this frame, the media cites ex-President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovič, and his statement on the reason of the Armed Conflict in Ukraine. In fact, he blames the newly assigned authorities for the causing the Armed Conflict.
36 3.6. Belarus
EU Belarus and the EU have a complicated bilateral relations for series of reason, e.g. the EU countries, regarding Belarus, do not recognize elections as transparent or legitimate, criticize the death penalty status, blame authorities for the lack of freedom and violating of human rights. Belarus, in its turn, does not make any attempts for development of bilateral relations with the EU. Listed actions can be a respect reason for describing and interpreting bilateral relations in medias. Thus, there was made an exception in the research, when Belarusian language search was implemented. As a result, the narrative “Western curators” (originally: Заходнія куратары) was found while searching articles related to Belarus and the EU, and refers to international democratic organizations and funds supporting democratic initiatives; The article also includes the narrative “zmagar”. In the material published, there are plenty information which covers various topics related to opposition in Belarus, describing many fonds and their role in Belarus. The following narrative which was met in the article was related to EHU, Belarusian university in exile, and the reference was that the University is “the most powerful structure of the opposition”35. According to the search results on Sputnik.by media source website, the 2nd most viewed article for the “Belarus EU” frame refers to the statement of Russian ambassador in Belarus, mr. Surikov in the end of 2015. Thus, he concluded the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement results as totally tragic for Belarus and its agriculture field. Such public statements and its publication in mass media were not proven by the certain facts neither additional information was provided. Moreover, the opinion poll results published in Shraibman study about the Lukašenka regime, evidences the wish of Belarusians to be closer with the EU. Integration There are several reasons to Russian authorities, political and public figures, various media, including media propaganda, consider Belarus as part of Russia. Facts such as the status and position of the Russian language in Belarus, the lack of borders between the two states, as well as a dubious joint history make Belarus and Russia closer countries. However, this proximity is not enough for Russian authorities, and attempts to persuade population of both countries to unite take place. Russia used to portray Belarus as “the younger brother” of Russia 36. Beside the imaging Belarus as the younger brother, Russian medias often use the narratives relating to the indisputability of Belarus-Russia Union. When RuBaltic.ru criticizes the opposition in Belarus, the Sputnik portal gently hints the advantage of the common tax code of Belarus and
35 Aliaksandr Nasovič. Хто за кім стаіць: заходнія куратары «іншай Беларусі». Rubaltic.ru, 2019. 36 Andrei Kazakevich. Bell BelarusInfoLetter. EESC, 2013. C. 4. 37 Russia. The argument is presented, assures that Belarusian officials regularly come up with new taxes (originally: Стоит ли напоминать о том, как белорусские чиновники умеют вводить новые сборы и платежи?) 37. Opposition According to Belarusian journalist, A.Shraibman, the Lukashenko regime tolerates the pro- Western opposition, despite the fact that other opposition parties exist in Belarus. Moreover, the opposition in Belarus does not possess any threat to Lukashenko38. However, in all conducted searches, media sources did not have that many views on their news articles related to the “Belarus Opposition” frame.
3.7. Lithuania
The fact Lithuania is a full member of the EU and NATO is realized by Russia. Possible tensions between two countries as it was already mentioned can be caused by the Ukrainian Conflict and historical reasons. Nevertheless, Lithuania as well as other Baltic states cannot get rid of the caused disorder in bilateral relations with Russia. After few articles were analysed, the following topics and narratives were met, which Russia use quite actively introducing and determining situation in Baltic States’ region. EU Lithuania is the full EU member since 2004. For Russian propaganda, Lithuania as the EU member is seen as the dependent state requiring financial assistance of the EU. It can be proved in citations in Russian owned Sputnik. For the results on the Russian propaganda opinion about bilateral relations of the EU and Lithuania, the google search operator used: (Литва ЕС site:sputniknews.lt), and for Lithuanian language (Lietuva ES site:sputniknews.lt). The result obtained in Russian languages refers to the article published in 2018, and tilted as “Development in Lithuania as EU member state became impossible” (originally: Членство в ЕС лишило Литву перспективы развития). Author evaluated membership of Lithuania in various international organizations as “the policy of joining whatever organization is possible”. The article body contains criticism towards Lithuania as the EU member state, the advantages were not bothered author attention, when disadvantages are pointedly revealed39. The Lithuanian version analogue, published one year later, in 2019, and titled as “Lithuania in the EU: the last among equal states” (originally: Lietuva Europos Sąjungoje – paskutinė tarp lygių). The article message refers to
37 Stanislav Androsik. Что на самом деле сулит углубленная интеграция Беларуси и России. Sputnik, 2020. 38 Artyom Shraibman. Carnegie Moscow Center, 2018. C. 8-9. 39 Andrei Starikov. Членство в ЕС лишило Литву перспективы развития. Sputnik, 2018. 38 Lithuania as the state which has changed Moscow for Brussels, implying the right to rule and dictate for Lithuania40. This narrative used by Russian propaganda is not the kind of something novel, but another attempt to disinform the media auditory, Lithuanian speaking in particular. The fact to discredit the particular narrative is the commonly known official status of Lithuanian language in Lithuania, which is the only official language while during USSR, Lithuanian obliged to have both Russian and Lithuanian languages as official ones. Apart the narratives about the planning European federalization and Lithuanian role in the EU, the propaganda also refers to nationalists’ uprising in Europe and determines the future of Lithuania as a choice with two options, to live in federalized Europe or to exist independently. Obviously, the propaganda is interested in discord throughout Europe, using the old and common narratives, such as discussing the population decrease, EU financial assistance suspending, uselessness of Lithuania in the EU, and so on. The section can be concluded that Russian authorities are worried about the EU financial assistance to Lithuania most, and propaganda tries to disinform, imaging the Lithuanian EU membership as the possibility to require financial assistance.
NATO Bilateral relation of Russia and NATO have always been complicated enough. There can be listed a plenty of reasons for the discourse. For example, Russian authorities are not satisfied with many European countries joining the military alliance because of the proximity to Russia. Here is crucial to make contradiction attempts, by the evidences of the right to choose, applying it to Baltic States as well. Whatever Russian authorities wishes on whether Russian neighbour countries should become members of various international organizations, the right to self- determination is left for the countries themselves41. During the 2018 Russian Presidential Elections campaign, candidate Vladimir Zhirinovsky stated in interview to Sputnik, that Lithuania shall be demolished in case of the war in Europe. He added, that Lithuania has still the opportunity to save itself by withdrawing NATO troops and introducing the neutrality42. In the particular case the threat is quite obvious, and it comes from Russia, the state thinks it can interfere in other states’ affairs. Nationalism During 13th January events in Vilnius, there was a confrontation between Lithuanians who wished their state became independent from USSR and the Red Army. Consequently, 14 people were killed and 52 injured in result. Those political groups in Russia, who respects the preservation
40 Andrius Petrinis. Lietuva Europos Sąjungoje — paskutinė tarp lygių? Sputnik, 2019. 41 Stephen Blank. 151. Russian Policy on NATO Expansion In The Baltics. Wilson Center, 1998. 42 Dmitrij Mart. Vladimiras Žirinovskis: Lietuva bus sunaikinta karo Europoje atveju. Sputnik, 2017. 39 of USSR and criticises independency of post-Soviet countries used to criticise the ratification of the Declaration of Independence by each post-Soviet country. In the media publications by RuBaltic.ru, Lithuanian Independence is questioned, the evidence is the mentioned in the article restoration of independence is marked as quoted. While describing the advantages of Lithuania as one of Soviet Republics, author used the narratives “after the independence was restored and nationalists came to power..” (originally: После «восстановления независимости» и прихода к власти националистов)43. Obviously, two countries as independent global actors and subjects of international law may have different opinion on which fields should be developed in their countries, but in the mentioned case the narrative comes from the certain media supported by certain country, i.e. Russian media and Russia accordingly. The particular case, including the opinion of author, refers to the difference of views on Soviet Union politics in Lithuania which implies industrialization. Obviously, one side advocates the right to self-determination and independency, and the other side which is addicted to advocate the actions made by its predecessor.
43 Aleksandr Filej. Литва высоких технологий: взлет и падение «Силиконовой долины» СССР. Rubaltic.ru, 2019. 40 CONCLUSION;
The thesis contains the analysis of frequency of mentioning the particular topics in the various media which are considered to be Russian, pro-Russian, or pro-Kremlin in Eastern European countries. In particular, countries which are considered as post-Soviet states were examined in this work. Belarus and Lithuania are two independent but interdependent global actors and they are also members of particular international organizations. Belarus is integrated with Russia and EEU countries in terms of political, economic, and military cooperation. Indeed, Lithuania is integrated with Western community, Euro-Atlantic countries in the same fields. Analysed topics are called frames in the thesis and are studied, using google and in-website searching tools. The searching result showed the meaning of each tested value of the analysed frames. The main advantage of the conducted research could refer to the study, that encompass the diversity of societal crucial topics. Two studies countries, Belarus and Lithuania are regionally significant actors, that are located in the Eastern Europe. These countries are in various political, economic, and military organizations. However, there are still tensions between them, as well as between Russia and each of the compared states. Belarus is still important for Russia as the ally, what makes Russia proceed popularizing of its political culture in Belarus. At the same time, the opposition structures in Belarus are criticized in many ways by Russian media, and values the opposition shares is also criticized by Russia. The example is shown in Sputnik article regarding the statement of mr. Surikov, which is Russian Ambassador in Belarus, who considered Ukraine- EU Assocoation Agreement in the extremely negative way for Belarus in terms of agriculture. Still, around 35% Belarusians expressed their wish to become closer with the EU. Two conjunct analysis, quantitative and qualitative made it possible to go through frames, specifying each of them. The approximate number of articles published was obtained by two searching options, that are google and in-website search using specially selected frames. Quantitative analysis in the research also summarized all mentions of each frame by every mass media source. Qualitative analysis contains the sum up of most popular articles for each frame with the following narrative selection. Soft Power and the style, Russia communicates through its owned media sources in the near abroad are two different things. The way and forms of narratives usage do not have anything in common with the promotion one’s culture values, until these values refer to the conflict making in neighbour states. Russian media campaigns studied are mostly related to propaganda and the kind of informative war.
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