September 2012

Monthly Forecast

2 Status Update Overview 3 Peace and Security in the Middle East 3 Syria Germany will preside over the Council in Septem- Briefings in consultations are likely on: ber. A high-level meeting on the Council’s cooper- • issues of concern, under the “horizon scan- 5 Yemen ation with the League of Arab States and ways to ning” format, by the head of the Department of 6 Somalia strengthen this relationship is planned to coincide Political Affairs, Jeffrey D. Feltman; 8 Sudan and South Sudan with the start of the general debate of the General • Sudan and South Sudan (twice, in line with 11 Libya Assembly. In addition to German Foreign Minis- resolution 2046 requiring briefings every 15 days), 12 Mali ter Guido Westerwelle, who will preside, several most likely by the Special Envoy of the Secretary- other high level participants are expected. General, Haile Menkerios; 14 Guinea-Bissau An open debate on children and armed con- • the work of the Sudan Sanctions Committee 15 Sierra Leone flict is planned, with the new Special Represen- (1591 Committee) by its chair, Ambassador Nés- 17 Liberia tative of the Secretary-General for Children and tor Osorio (Colombia); 18 Afghanistan Armed Conflict, Leila Zerrougui, and the head • developments in the Sahel region, with a par- of UN peacekeeping, Hervé Ladsous, expected ticular focus on Mali, by the head of the Depart- 20 Iran as briefers. ment of Political Affairs, Jeffrey D. Feltman; 22 Children and Armed There is also a debate planned on Afghani- • the situation in Yemen, by Special Advisor of Conflict stan during which the head of the UN Assistance the Secretary-General Jamal Benomar; and 24 Notable Dates Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), Jan Kubiš, is • developments in and the latest Secretary- expected to brief. General’s report on Guinea-Bissau, by the head The chair of the Iran Sanctions Committee of the Department of Political Affairs, Jeffrey D. (1737 Committee), Ambassador Néstor Osorio Feltman. (Colombia), is due to provide his quarterly brief- In addition, consultations are possible on: ing to the Council. • developments in Syria; and Briefings, to be followed by consultations, are • the political transition process in Somalia. expected on: Formal sessions will be needed to adopt reso- • developments in Sierra Leone and the work lutions renewing the mandates of UNMIL and of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in UNIPSIL. Sierra Leone (UNIPSIL) by its head and Execu- It is also possible that, in line with Article 24(3) tive Representative of the Secretary-General Jens of the UN Charter, the Council will adopt its Anders Toyberg-Frandzen, and the chair of the annual report to the General Assembly in Sep- Sierra Leone country-specific configuration of the tember. • Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), Ambassador Guillermo Rishchynski (Canada); • developments in Liberia and the work of the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) by its head and Special Representative of the Secretary-Gen- eral Karin Landgren, and the chair of the Libe- ria country-specific configuration of the PBC, Ambassador Staffan Tillander (Sweden); 31 August 2012 This report is available online and • developments and the latest Secretary-Gener- can be viewed together with al’s report on the UN Support Mission in Libya research studies and Update Reports at securitycouncilreport.org. (UNSMIL), by the Secretariat; and • the Middle East, most likely by Special Coor- For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please dinator for the Middle East Peace Process, Robert subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” series at whatsinblue.org or follow Serry. @SCRtweets on Twitter.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 1 Status Update Since Our August Forecast

DRC Lebanon DPRK (North Korea) On 2 August, the Council released a press On 21 August, Council members met with A regular quarterly briefing by the chair of statement (SC/10736), condemning attacks UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) the 1718 Sanctions Committee, Ambassador by the M23 rebel group and calling for the troop-contributors in closed consultations. José Filipe Moraes Cabral (Portugal), took cessation of all outside support to M23. The In a letter to the Security Council dated 14 place on 21 August in consultations. It was statement followed a 30 July briefing by the August (S/2012/632), the Secretary-Gen- the first 90-day briefing since the renewal of Secretary-General’s Special Representative eral recommended extending the mission’s the mandate of the Panel of Experts, which and head of the UN Stabilisation Mission mandate for 12 months. Council members assists the Committee, on 12 June. There was in the DRC (MONUSCO), Roger Meece, met in further consultations to discuss the no outcome from the meeting. • via video-teleconference. On 27 August, the Secretary-General’s letter on 23 August. The Council was briefed by the Under-Secre- Security Council adopted resolution 2064, tary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, Val- extending UNIFIL for 12 months to 31 erie Amos, on the humanitarian effects of August 2013, on 30 August. the fighting in eastern DRC. On 28 August, the DRC Sanctions Committee met with the Kosovo Foreign Minister of Rwanda, Louise Mushi- On 21 August, Farid Zarif, Special Repre- kiwabo, concerning the report by the DRC sentative of the Secretary-General and head Group of Experts on Rwanda’s support of of the UN Interim Administration Mission the M23. On 29 August the Council held an in Kosovo (UNMIK), briefed the Council on informal interactive dialogue with the For- the latest UNMIK report and recent develop- eign Minister and then with DRC representa- ments in Kosovo (S/PV.6822). Zarif empha- tives about the situation in the region. sised the need for both Serbia and Kosovo to fully implement previously reached agree- UNRCCA (Central Asia) ments and to resume the Belgrade-Pristina On 7 August, Council members received dialogue. Serbia’s new Prime Minister, Ivica a briefing in consultations from Miroslav Dačić, said that resolving the final status of Jenča, the head of the UN Regional Centre what Serbia calls “Kosovo and Metohija” for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia was one of the government’s top priorities. (UNRCCA). The members of the Council He thanked the majority of member states reportedly reaffirmed the importance of pre- “which respect Serbia’s sovereignty and ter- ventive diplomacy and early warning mecha- ritorial integrity.” Kosovo’s Prime Minister nisms in the peaceful settlement of disputes Hashim Thaçi reaffirmed that Pristina was in the region. The importance of the role of committed to the dialogue with Serbia, but UNRCCA in facilitating the assistance by that the “territorial integrity of Kosovo” Central Asian states to normalising the situ- would never be put into question, describ- ation in Afghanistan, which affects the region ing his state as a “political and juridical fact.” more broadly, was also highlighted. Several members urged for a quick resump- tion of delayed talks between the two sides.

2 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 Peace and Security in the Middle East

Expected Council Action due—in addition to the fact that the Arab existing cooperation to jointly emphasise con- On 26 September, German Foreign Min- League itself was divided—to a more hard- flict prevention and resolution in the region. ister Guido Westerwelle will preside over a ened constellation of positions in the Coun- high-level meeting of the Security Council on cil vis-à-vis Syria compounded by the severe Underlying Problems peace and security in the Middle East. The fallout over the Libya intervention. It is likely that divisive political issues will meeting will have a particular focus on the Nevertheless, cooperation continued, and emerge, reflecting the disagreements over institutional relationship between the Secu- on 31 January 2012, Nabil al-Araby, the Sec- how the Council has handled the Libyan rity Council and the League of Arab States, retary-General of the Arab League, addressed and Syrian situations. However, Germany with the UN and Arab League Secretaries- the Council for the first time, speaking about is keen that the Security Council focus its General expected to address the Council. its efforts to reach a peaceful solution to the attention and consider how strategic coop- At press time it was unclear if there would Syrian crisis and urging the Council towards eration between the Security Council and the be an outcome. what in the Arab League’s view was effective Arab League could positively affect ongoing action. (The briefing came in the lead-up to political transitions in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia Background the 4 February veto of a Council draft reso- and Yemen and help to staunch the spread This meeting will be the key substantive lution [S/2012/77] condemning the violence of severe violence in Syria, which threatens event of Germany’s presidency of the Coun- in Syria and supporting the 22 January Arab regional security. cil in September. Its time on the Council League decision to facilitate a Syrian-led has largely coincided with the Arab Spring political transition.) Options and a period of unprecedented interactions The UN and Arab League have also coop- One option for the Council is to simply hold between the Security Council and the Arab erated by appointing Joint Special Envoy for the discussion. League, concerning both Libya and Syria. Syria Kofi Annan (who was appointed on Another option is for members to also Germany hopes for this meeting to be a first 23 February and resigned on 2 August) and explore Council practice regarding conflict step towards turning this experience into more recently a Joint Special Representative prevention and mediation and their positions practical modalities for future cooperation. for Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi. on developing a more robust Council role in In the case of Libya, the Arab League’s the Middle East. support was pivotal to the Council’s adoption Key Issues A further option is to establish a regular of resolutions 1970 and 1973 on 26 February A key issue is whether Council members see mechanism for contacts between the two and 17 March 2011, respectively, and secur- the cooperation with the Arab League as a bodies, perhaps along the lines of the prac- ing approval for concrete action against the promising tool for addressing challenges at tice the Council has forged with the AU’s regime of Muammar Qaddafi. hand. Peace and Security Council of holding regu- In the case of Syria, however, Arab League Furthermore, given that political develop- lar meetings in each other’s headquarters. • condemnation of the Bashar al-Assad regime ments are in flux in the Arab world, a key issue no longer had the same impact. This was for the Council would be how to strengthen

Syria

Expected Council Action core group of the “Friends of Syria” on the massacred in Daraya. The Secretary-General In the aftermath of the 19 August expiration margins of the General Assembly in late has condemned the crime and called for an of the mandate of the UN Supervision Mis- September. immediate investigation. sion in Syria (UNSMIS), at press time there At press time the Council was expecting The UN estimates 17,000 people have was no Syria-related activity scheduled for to have an interactive dialogue with Lakh- been killed since the crisis began in March the Security Council in September. However, dar Brahimi, the newly appointed UN-Arab 2011, while other sources indicate figures as it is highly probable that the Council will con- League Joint Special Representative for Syria, high as 23,000. Meanwhile, the UN High tinue to follow the situation in Syria closely. and it is possible that it may request a more Commissioner for Refugees reports more There are several opportunities during the formal briefing on the Syrian situation from than 200,000 registered Syrian refugees in month for the Council to be apprised of the him in September. Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and Iraq. OCHA situation, including the regular Middle East has reported that almost 2.5 million Syrians briefing and consultations or the monthly Key Recent Developments are in need of humanitarian assistance. “horizon scanning” briefing by the Depart- The overall level of violence in Syria has ment of Political Affairs. Although nothing continued to escalate, with fighting in urban had been announced, at press time it seemed areas increasing, particularly in Aleppo. possible that there might be a meeting of the On 25 August, hundreds of civilians were

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Syria (con't)

Human Rights-Related Developments could not agree on the statement, and it was al-Assad was collapsing and was in control of The 15 August Commission of Inquiry report on never issued.) only 30 percent of Syrian territory. Syria will be considered on 17 September during In remarks to the press following Mulet’s On 9 August, an international meeting on the next session of the Human Rights Council. briefing, Ambassador Gérard Araud (France), Syria was held in Tehran with lower-level par- The Commission reports that the Syrian govern- as the President of the Council in August, ticipants from nearly 30 countries, at which ment has perpetrated war crimes and crimes expressed the Council’s agreement with the Iran proposed a Syrian national dialogue. against humanity, including murder, extrajudicial killings and torture, gross violations of human Secretary-General’s proposal to establish There was no outcome from the meeting. rights and sexual violence. The report also notes a political liaison office in Damascus. The In a statement delivered on his behalf, the that more brutal tactics and new military capa- Secretary-General had highlighted in a 10 Secretary-General said Syria faces the grim bilities have been employed in recent months by August letter (S/2012/618) that such a flex- possibility of long civil war with tragic impli- both government forces and armed opposition ible presence in Syria would allow the UN cations for its people and regional stability. groups. While opposition forces have commit- ted war crimes, including murder and torture, to continue to play a reporting role, facili- Turkey and the US agreed on 11 August the report finds that these violations are not of tate the political track between stakeholders to set up a working group to plan a joint the same gravity, frequency and scale as those and provide support to mediation efforts. It response to the crisis—in particular regard- committed by government forces and its militia, seems the office will have approximately 20 ing support to Syrian opposition groups and the Shabiha. Regarding the 25 May el-Houleh to 30 staff with expertise in human rights and contingency planning concerning any poten- attacks, the Commission’s report concluded that government forces and Shabiha militia were political and civil affairs and will include a tial misuse of the stockpile of chemical weap- responsible. small number of military advisers. ons in Syria. On 17 August, the Secretary-Generals At an emergency meeting on 15 August, of the UN and the Arab League announced held in Mecca, the Organisation of Islamic Hervé Ladsous, the head of peacekeep- the appointment of Lakhdar Brahimi (Alge- Cooperation (OIC) suspended Syria. The ing, briefed Council members in consulta- ria) as the Joint Special Representative for Secretary-General of the OIC, Ekmeleddin tions on 2 August on the security situation Syria. The same day the Security Council Ihsanoglu, said the decision sent a strong in Syria and the implications for the future sent a letter (S/2012/654) to the Secretary- message from the Muslim world to the Syr- of UNSMIS. Also on 2 August, Kofi Annan, General reiterating support for his good ian regime. the joint UN-Arab League Special Envoy, offices and for the Joint Special Representa- resigned from his post. tive. On 21 August the Secretary-Generals Key Issue On 3 August, the General Assembly of the UN and the Arab Leagues announced The key issue for the Council remains that adopted a resolution (A/RES/66/253B) the appointment of Nasser Al-Kidwa as the Syria is in a state of civil war and has become deploring the Security Council’s failure to Deputy Joint Special Representative for Syria. militarised to such a degree that it seems act on Syria and calling for a political tran- On 29 August, Council members had there is little or no political space remaining sition. The resolution was penned by the an informal meeting with Brahimi which to negotiate a peaceful solution to the crisis. Arab Group, and 133 member states voted allowed for an exchange of ideas on his role Meanwhile, Council members, in particular in favour, with 12 against and 31 abstentions. as Special Representative. (Brahimi’s first the P5, have been unable to agree on an effec- Council members were briefed in con- official statement as Special Representative tive approach, leaving the Security Council in sultations on 16 August by Assistant Sec- is likely to be during the General Assembly the position of watching the situation—which retary-General for Peacekeeping Edmond meeting on Syria on 4 September.) is a clear threat to international peace and Mulet, who confirmed that the two condi- On 30 August, France organised a high- security—unfold from the side-lines. tions in resolution 2059 for a further renewal level meeting on the humanitarian situation of UNSMIS—cessation of the use of heavy in Syria. The meeting was chaired by French Options weapons and a reduction in violence by all Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius. Deputy Aside from following the Syrian situation sides—had not been achieved. (UNSMIS Secretary-General Jan Eliasson briefed the through briefings, including possibly by Bra- had been unable to exercise its key monitor- Council together with the High Commis- himi, Council options for September seem ing functions since 15 June.) These consulta- sioner for Refugees, António Guterres. For- limited. tions took place against the backdrop of an eign Ministers from Jordan and Turkey as However, if Brahimi were to specifi- increasing deterioration in the security situa- well as ministers from Iraq and Lebanon also cally request the Council to endorse a fresh tion in Syria. That same morning, Russia had participated. approach to mediating the crisis in Syria, an circulated a draft press statement responding In other developments, Syrian Prime option for the Council would be to issue a to a 15 August bombing in Damascus near a Minister Riyad Hajib defected on 6 August statement of support. (It seems his accept- hotel housing UNSMIS personnel and sev- after only two months in office. From Jordan, ance of the mediating role after Annan’s res- eral military buildings. (Council members Hijab claimed the regime of President Bashar ignation was conditioned on having unified

UN DOCUMENTS Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2059 (20 July 2012) extended UNSMIS for a final period of 30 days.S/RES/2043 (21 April 2012) established UNSMIS and reaffirmed support for the six-point plan. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2012/6 (21 March 2012) supported the six-point plan for mediation of the Syrian crisis. Security Council Letters S/2012/654 (17 August 2012) was from the Security Council reiterating support for the Secretary-General’s good offices and for the Joint Special Representative for Syria.S/2012/618 (10 August 2012) was from the Secretary-General on the implementation of resolution 2059 and confirmed the conditions for a further renewal of UNSMIS had not been achieved. S/2012/522 (5 July 2012) was the final communiqué of the 30 June meeting of the Action Group for Syria in Geneva. General Assembly Document A/RES/66/253B (3 August 2012) was a resolution deploring the Security Council’s failure to act on Syria and calling for a political transition. Human Rights Council Document A/HRC/21/50 (15 August 2012) was a report by the Commission of Inquiry on Syria.

4 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 Syria (con't) support from the Security Council.) time being, any active management of the con- will affect mediation efforts on his part. It is An additional option for the Council is to flict has effectively passed from Council hands. possible that Brahimi may want a clear man- request a de-briefing from Annan and Gen. However, Council members continue to date from the Council to approach the issue Robert Mood, the former head of UNSMIS, be unanimous in their concern about the dev- of political transition without any precondi- in order to allow for a better understand- astating level of violence in Syria, and there tions. However, the P3 are keen to have this ing of the challenges that had been faced in is strong consensus regarding the importance issue dealt with outside the Council. Russia carrying out their respective mediation and of maintaining a UN presence in Damascus and China, however, may be open to giving observation tasks, as well as identifying possi- and similarly strong support for the Secre- Brahimi Council support on this approach. ble “lessons learned” for future UN missions. tary-General’s efforts in that regard. Most Council members are of the view that As the refugee situation continues to grow, It is as yet unclear how Council members the fundamental dynamics around the issue the possibility of neighbouring countries clos- might respond to Brahimi’s apparent reluc- of regime change are unlikely to shift. • ing their borders may mean that the Coun- tance to be bound by initiatives not of his cil may have to consider options to ensure own making, in particular the six-point plan, the safety of the civilian population trapped which the Council endorsed both in resolu- within Syria. tion 2043 and in a 21 March presidential statement (S/PRST/2012/6). In addition, it Council and Wider Dynamics seems Brahimi is concerned about the stale- Council members remain deadlocked on an mate in the Council over President al-Assad’s approach to the Syrian situation and, for the fate in any political transition and how this

Yemen

Expected Council Action challenges continued to hamper the tran- different regional commands. Other dissi- In September, the Council is expecting to sition process and described interference dent army units have also either been incor- hold consultations on the situation in Yemen from former President Ali Abdullah Saleh porated into the PPF or placed under other and to receive a briefing by the Secretary- and his kinsmen as a key obstacle to stabil- regional commands. The Republican Guard, General’s Special Adviser and UN Envoy ity. Benomar also updated the Council on until recently, has been under the command Jamal Benomar. preparations for the national dialogue confer- of Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh, son of the for- In addition, a donors’ conference on ence. (The outcome of the national dialogue mer President.) Yemen is expected to be held in Riyadh in conference will feed into the constitution- Benomar, in a statement issued on the early September, and the next Friends of making process that is to conclude in late next day, said that the issuance of the decrees Yemen ministerial-level meeting is expected 2013, enabling presidential and parliamen- marked an important step towards creating to take place on the margins of the General tary elections in February 2014.) On 16 July, “the necessary conditions and take the neces- Assembly in late September. (Saudi Arabia, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon noted in a sary steps to integrate the armed forces under the UK and Yemen jointly chair the Friends statement that “the national dialogue will be unified, national and professional leadership of Yemen, which includes key Persian Gulf an opportunity for all actors in Yemen to col- in the context of the rule of law.” countries, the G8 and intergovernmental lectively establish a new social contract and However, the ongoing interference from organisations.) achieve national reconciliation.” Saleh became apparent on 14 August when No Council action is expected at this point. Yemen’s transition process moved one Republican Guard troops under the com- step further when, on 6 August, President mand of his son attacked the Defence Min- Key Recent Developments Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi issued decrees istry in Sanaa, killing five people and wound- Benomar last briefed Council members on 17 concerning the restructuring of the security ing 17. July (under the terms of resolution 2014 the sector. (The decrees transferred the com- Council receives a briefing on Yemen every mand of some of the Republican Guard 60 days; these briefings have customarily units to a newly created force called Presi- been given in consultations). He noted that dential Protective Forces [PPF] and placed several political, humanitarian and security many other Republican Guard units under

UN DOCUMENTS Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2051 (12 June 2012) focused on the second phase of the transition and expressed the Council’s readi- ness to consider further measures, including under Article 41 of the Charter. S/RES/2014 (21 October 2011) endorsed the GCC initiative for a peaceful transition of power. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2012/8 (29 March 2012) noted Council members’ concern over the deterioration in the situation since the transfer of power to President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi on 25 February. Security Council Press Statements SC/10656 (21 May 2012) condemned the suicide attack that killed 96 soldiers in Sana’a on 21 May. SC/10571 (7 March 2012) condemned the terrorist attacks that occurred in Abyan province. SC/10553 (22 February 2012) noted the significance of presidential elections and encouraged further transitional steps to be taken promptly. SC/10460 (28 November 2011) welcomed the signing of the GCC initiative. SC/10296 (24 June 2011) expressed grave concern at the deteriorating security and humanitarian situation. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6776 (29 May 2012) S/PV.6744 (29 March 2012) Letters S/2012/470 (21 June 2012) was from the President of the Council noting the receipt of the Secretary-General’s 18 June letter. S/2012/469 (18 June 2012) was from the Secretary-General to the President of the Council noting his intention to establish a small office of the Special Adviser for an initial period of 12 months. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on Yemen and UN Envoy to Yemen Jamal Benomar (Morocco)

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Yemen (con't)

Human Rights-Related Developments Al-Qaida-affiliated militants killed 45 people in order to give credence to its readiness to On 24 July the government of Yemen and the and left dozens injured in Jaar on 5 August; consider further measures, including under UN Development Programme (UNDP) signed • suspected Al-Qaida militants attacked the Article 41 of the Charter; an agreement to carry on a project aimed at intelligence headquarters in Aden, killing 14 • visiting Yemen to send a strong signal strengthening human rights during the transition people on 18 August; and about its support for a peaceful and success- period in Yemen. The agreement commits the • a gunman opened fire on a mosque in ful transition; and UNDP and the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights to help establish an indepen- Aden during Eid prayers on 19 August, kill- • requesting briefings regarding the human dent national human rights body, develop civil ing nine people and injuring 11. rights situation and the humanitarian crisis society capacities in human rights and assist the from the relevant UN actors, as well as inter- Ministry of Human Rights to contribute effectively Key Issues national and regional organisations. to the transitional process. The key challenge for the Council is to deter- mine what further role it can play in assist- Council Dynamics The overall security situation in the coun- ing Yemen to foster a peaceful political tran- Council members seem to be in agreement try has been precarious, with several trou- sition that abides by the timetables of the that Yemen is a complicated situation, where bling incidents occurring recently: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Initia- the ongoing interference from Saleh and his • a suicide bombing in a police academy in tive and the accompanying Implementation relatives to undermine the transition process Sanaa killed at least six people and left several Mechanism. remains a key obstacle. injured on 11 July; A related issue for the Council is deal- Most Council members appear concerned • security forces discovered and defused a ing with the continuously precarious security, about the deteriorating security, human bomb at the entrance of an intelligence ser- human rights and humanitarian situation in rights and humanitarian picture in Yemen. vices building in Aden on 23 July; Yemen, which could undermine the new gov- They consider the recent increase in terrorist • clashes between government forces and ernment’s position and the prospects for the activity as strongly signalling the urgency of gunmen wearing police uniforms who were political transition process. political, military and security reforms. How- occupying the Interior Ministry in Sanaa left ever, most Council members seem encour- 15 dead and 43 injured on 31 July; Options aged by the progress in Yemen, which albeit • five people were reported dead whenAl- The Council’s options include: slow, seems promising in comparison to the Qaida-linked militants attacked a police sta- • keeping abreast of the developments in situation in Syria. tion in Jaar on 1 August; Yemen and receiving regular briefings from The UK has the lead in the Council on • at least six people were reported dead and Benomar and the Department of Political Yemen. • ten injured after a grenade attack in a market Affairs; in Taiz on 3 August; • adopting a clear message directed at • a suicide bombing allegedly carried out by spoilers, including former President Saleh,

Somalia

Expected Council Action receive the next 60-day report of the AU on chairperson of the AU Commission, Nkosa- The transition to permanent federal govern- the implementation of the AU Mission in zana Dlamini-Zuma. The meeting will focus ment institutions in Somalia that was under- Somalia’s (AMISOM) mandate. This report on issues of transparency, stability and secu- way at press time will be of primary concern will not be considered until October, when rity, while also establishing medium-term for the Council in September, as Council the 31 October expiration of the mandate goals for the new Somali administration. A members will be watching closely to see how approaches. communiqué following the meeting is likely. events on the ground continue to develop. A high-level mini-summit, involving rep- It is possible that the Council will request a resentatives of the new Somali government, Key Recent Developments briefing on the political situation in Somalia. key regional actors and financial institu- The period immediately preceding the sched- A press statement or presidential statement tions, is planned for 26 September on the uled deadline for transition to a provisional welcoming the transition is also possible. margins of the General Assembly. The Secre- government, originally set for 20 August, Also in September, the Council is due to tary-General will co-chair the event with the was plagued by delays as well as incidents of

UN DOCUMENTS Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2060 (25 July 2012) extended the mandate of the Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea for 13 months, as well as the humanitar- ian exemption to the Somalia sanctions regime for 12 months. S/RES/2036 (22 February 2012) authorised an increase in AMISOM’s troop strength as well as a further expansion of its UN support package and imposed a ban on importing or exporting Somali charcoal. Secretary General’s Report S/2012/643 (22 August 2012) was a report of the Secretary-General on Somalia. Security Council Press Statements SC/10749 (29 August 2012) was a press statement on Somalia. SC/10748 (24 August 2012) announced the addition of Abubaker Shariff Ahmed to the list of individuals subject to sanctions. SC/10740 (10 August 2012) was a press statement in support of the Somalia transition process. SC/10728 (25 July 2012) announced the addition of Aboud Rogo Mohamed to the list of individuals subject to sanctions. Security Council Letters S/2012/544 (11 July 2012) contained the final report on Somalia of the Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea. S/2012/468 (20 June 2012) contained the most recent 60-day AU report on AMISOM requested by resolution 2036. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia Augustine P. Mahiga (Tanzania) AMISOM Maximum Authorised Strength: 17,731 troops, plus maritime and air components Strength as of 2 June 2012: 16,660 troops Duration: February 2007 to present. Council authorisation expires on 31 October 2012; AU mandate expires on 16 January 2013.

6 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 Somalia (con't) violence and intimidation. On 1 August, the Monitoring Group (S/2012/544) identi- Key Issues 825-member National Constituent Assem- fied Aboud Rogo as the ideological leader The primary issue for the Council is seeing bly approved a provisional constitution that of Al Hijra, formerly known as the Muslim through the transition from the TFG to a new will provide the legal framework for the new Youth Centre, and accused him of covertly provisional government. Somali federal government. The nine-day funding the Islamist rebel group al-Shabaab A key issue will be whether or not spe- assembly session was the target of multiple while advocating the violent overthrow of the cific objectives agreed by signatories to the assaults, including a mortar attack on 28 July Government of Kenya and the derailment 6 September 2011 Roadmap to ending the and a suicide bombing on 1 August in which of the Somali peace process. A close associ- transition and in subsequent meetings fall by six security officers and the two bombers ate of Aboud Rogo also residing in Kenya, the wayside, such as the mandate that women were killed. Abubaker Shariff Ahmed, was added to the receive 30 percent of all seats in new federal According to news reports on 9 August, sanctions list on 23 August. institutions (as agreed in February as part of individuals dressed as Transitional Federal Three civilians (two boys aged 11 and the Garowe II Principles). (According to the Government (TFG) forces fired upon sup- 15, and a pregnant woman) were killed and most recent report of the Secretary-General, porters of presidential candidate and for- four injured in the port city of Kismayo, only 15 percent of new parliamentarians as mer Prime Minister Mohamed Abdullahi stronghold of al-Shabaab, following shell- of 15 August were women.) Farmajo, killing two people. In a 10 August ing of the town by Kenyan naval forces on Allegations of corruption within the new press statement (SC/10740), Council mem- 11 August. (Though Kenya provides troops Somali government are a major issue for bers reiterated that those selecting new par- and resources to AMISOM, Kenya operates Council members. liamentarians be able to do so “without fear outside of the mission’s mandate.) As a bat- As the new government continues to take of violence or intimidation.” tle for control of the town appeared immi- shape, an issue for Council members will be On 13 August, Special Representative of nent, the UN Humanitarian Coordinator for how closely it resembles the outgoing TFG. the Secretary-General Augustine Mahiga Somalia, Mark Bowden, expressed concern A key concern in September will be to issued a statement condemning the killings over the civilian casualties and reiterated his make clear to the new Somali administration of a journalist and a government official from call for parties to the conflict to minimise that past Security Council pronouncements the Ministry of Information. Invoking the kill- its impact on civilians. Ultimately, a planned addressed to the TFG continue to apply to ing of a Somali comedian two weeks earlier, assault on the town by AMISOM was post- the new authorities. Mahiga decried the culture of impunity pre- poned following the crash of three Ugandan A separate issue for the Council will be vailing in Somalia and called for the TFG to helicopters en route to Somalia to spearhead AMISOM’s attacks on civilians, in particular “strengthen its police investigative capacity.” the assault on 12 August. A spokesperson the likely impact of its forthcoming assault Press accounts on 17 August reported for AMISOM reported that the mission had on Kismayo. The outcome of this battle that the Technical Selection Committee taken the port city of Merca, near Mogadishu, may have consequences for the review of had rejected more than 60 potential legisla- from al-Shabaab forces on 27 August. AMISOM’s mandate in October. tors on the basis of their involvement with Security Council members have been groups accused of contributing to instability keeping abreast of developments in Somalia. Options in Somalia. On 20 August a new parliament On 7 August, they heard a briefing by the The Council has several options for marking was inaugurated and 215 (out of 275) par- Department of Political Affairs, in which the the end of the transition in Somalia. Follow- liamentarians were sworn in, enough to con- approval of the constitution and selection of ing presidential elections expected by early stitute a quorum and allow the new body to parliamentarians were discussed. September, the Council could: convene. In a statement the Secretary-Gen- On 28 August the Security Council was • request a briefing from the Department of eral described the inauguration as a “water- briefed in consultations by Mahiga (via vid- Political Affairs or the Special Representative shed moment.” The new parliament elected eoconferencing from Mogadishu) on the of the Secretary-General on the political situ- Mohamed Osman Jawari as its Speaker on political situation in Somalia and the Secre- ation in Somalia; 28 August. On 29 August, Jaylaani Nur Ikar tary-General’s most recent report on Somalia • adopt a statement welcoming Somalia’s and Mahad Abdalle Awad were elected first (S/2012/643). In his report, the Secretary- transition to a new government, expressing and second deputy speakers, respectively. General asserted his intention to conduct an concern over the reports of bribery, intimi- The election of a new President is currently inter-agency review of the UN presence in dation and corruption that accompanied the expected in early September. Somalia and present recommendations to the transitional process and making clear that the On 27 August in Mombasa, Kenya, Council by the end of 2012. In a press state- conclusion of the transition represents the the extremist Islamic cleric Aboud Rogo ment on 29 August, Council members wel- first step towards a permanent federal gov- Mohammed was killed by unknown assail- comed “recent landmark events in Somalia,” ernment; or ants. Aboud Rogo had been added to the condemned instances of intimidation and • adopt a resolution addressing similar Somalia and Eritrea Sanctions Commit- corruption and underlined that the parlia- issues, helping set out the parameters for the tee’s list of individuals subject to a travel ban, ment should “elect a President without fur- high-level mini-summit on the margins of assets freeze and targeted arms embargo on ther delays.” the General Assembly and articulating new 25 July. The report of the Somalia and Eritrea medium-term goals for Somalia.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 7 Somalia (con't)

Council Dynamics Somalia is indicative of the divisions that exist transition and the election of a new Presi- The Council remains in general agreement within the Council regarding approaches to dent and lay out some medium-term goals on most issues related to Somalia. For the corruption issues in Somalia. Some Council on stabilisation and transparency, but further time being, the Council shares the opinion members are reluctant to criticise key actors details have yet to emerge. that encouragement rather than criticism in Somalia on the subject of corruption, The UK is the lead country on Somalia in should characterise its approach to Somalia. while others feel that more forceful action on the Council, while India chairs the Sanctions However, the lack of any Council state- the issue is called for. Committee and Russia has taken the lead on ment specifically addressing many of the It seems Council members have also legal issues related to piracy. • charges laid out in the July report of the begun to discuss the possibility of a new res- Somalia and Eritrea Monitoring Group on olution on Somalia to mark the end of the

Sudan and South Sudan

Expected Council Action are the only outlets to the outside world for November 2011 Map Proposed In September, the Council expects to meet South Sudan’s oil). According to the agree- by the African Union twice on Sudan and South Sudan, in accor- ment, South Sudan would pay transport fees While South Sudan has accepted the map that dance with resolution 2046, which asks the of $11 per barrel for oil from Unity state and the AU proposed in November 2011 for nego- Secretary-General to inform the Council $9.10 per barrel for oil from Upper Nile state. tiations, Sudan has objected to the inclusion every two weeks about the status of compli- It would also pay an additional $3.028 billion in the map of a strip of land on South Sudan’s side of the temporary administrative line for the ance with the resolution. During one of these to help Sudan weather the financial impact of Safe Demilitarised Border Zone. This territory, meetings the Council is likely to review the losing South Sudan, which held 75 percent approximately 14 miles in width, is one of the five Secretary-General’s report, as requested by of Sudan’s oil deposits before its 9 July 2011 disputed regions along the Sudan-South Sudan resolution 2046, which is expected to focus independence. border (see adjoining map). A fertile grazing on the status of negotiations between Sudan Details about how and when the agree- area for the cattle of nomadic tribes, the area is south of the Bahr el-Arab River and west of and South Sudan. Haile Menkerios, Special ment would be implemented remain unclear. Abyei. Sudan has argued that this strip of land, Envoy of the Secretary-General for Sudan On 4 August, Nafie Ali Nafie, the Vice- also called the Munroe-Wheatley area, lies within and South Sudan, is expected to brief in President of the ruling National Congress its borders of 1 January 1956, the date Sudan these meetings. Party in Sudan, said that its implementation became an independent state. Ambassador Néstor Osorio (Colombia), was contingent on the resolution of security The AU placed the Munroe-Wheatley area chair of the Sudan Sanctions Committee, is issues separating the two countries. Also on below the temporary administrative line for the also expected to provide the quarterly report 4 August, Pagan Amum, South Sudan’s lead Safe Demilitarised Border Zone, and thus not in Sudan, to reflect the fact that South Sudan to the Council on the work of the Committee. negotiator in the talks, said that his country controlled this territory at the time the map was The mandate of the Sanctions Committee had been pressured into accepting the deal by issued last November. In its 3 August commu- expires on 17 February 2013. certain states, including the US and the UK. niqué, the AU reiterated that use of this map is In early August, Sudan and the Sudan designed to serve as a basis for separating the Key Recent Developments Peoples’ Liberation Movement-North armed forces of Sudan and South Sudan, and that it “in no way prejudices negotiations on the On 3 August, Thabo Mbeki, the chair of (SPLM-N) signed separate memoranda of final border between the two States or the status the AU High-Level Implementation Panel understanding with the AU, the UN and the of the disputed and claimed areas.” (AUHIP) on Sudan and South Sudan, Arab League agreeing to allow humanitarian announced that Sudan and South Sudan access to civilians in Blue Nile and South had reached a deal on oil and other finan- Kordofan states. However, in its memoran- the SPLM/North controlled areas,” as Sudan cial arrangements. (South Sudan shut down dum, the SPLM-N expressed the reserva- has asserted the right to oversee the delivery its oil production in January, after accus- tion that the delivery of aid to these two of aid on its sovereign territory. ing Sudan of stealing its oil. Pipelines that states “is dependent on the consent of the On 9 August, the Council held one of lead to Sudan’s Port Sudan on the Red Sea GoS (Government of Sudan) on access to its bimonthly meetings on Sudan and South

UN DOCUMENTS Security Council Resolution S/RES/2046 (2 May 2012) was on Sudan-South Sudan relations. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2012/19 (31 August 2012) expressed regret that the parties have not yet been able to resolve a number of critical issues. Security Council Press Statement SC/10677 (18 June 2012) underscored the importance of estab- lishing border-monitoring mechanisms. Security Council Letters S/2012/612 (8 August 2012) was from Sudan containing a report of the UN Mission in Sudan Joint Monitoring and Coordination Office with minutes of a meeting from January 2011 and arguing that Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Army were in Kiir Adim/Bahr el Arab, northern Sudan, in violation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. S/2012/591 (26 July 2012) was from Sudan accepting the AUHIP map except for a 14 mile area south of Bahr el Arab. S/2012/587 (27 July 2012) was from Sudan accepting the tripartite proposal on South Kordofan and Blue Nile. S/2012/568 (25 July 2012) was from Sudan alleging South Sudanese support for the Justice and Equality Movement. S/2012/569 (23 July 2012) was from South Sudan providing an update on the status of negotiations between Sudan and South Sudan. Other PSC/PR/COMM. (CCCXXIX) (3 August 2012) was a communiqué of the PSC on the status of negotiations between the parties. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Envoy of the Secretary-General on Sudan and South Sudan Haile Menkerios (South Africa) Chair of the AU High-Level Implementation Panel Thabo Mbeki (South Africa) Chair of the 1591 (Sudan) Sanctions Committee Ambassador Néstor Osorio (Colombia) USEFUL ADDITIONAL SOURCES Jenn Christian, “Negotiations between the Two Sudans: The Safe Demilitarised Border Zone Explained,” Policy Brief, The Enough Project, 19 June 2012. International Crisis Group, “Sudan: Defining the North-South Border,” Policy Briefing, Africa Briefing No. 75, 2 September 2010

8 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 Sudan and South Sudan (con't)

Disputed Areas along Sudan-South Sudan Border

Republic of Sudan

(1)    Renk-Jabalain

(2)  Jebel Megenis

(3)  Kaka

  (4 ) Bahr el Arab

   Hofrat en Nahas       Abyei (5)  Kafia Kingi Ethiopia

Central Republic of South Sudan African Republic

Source: SCR map based on Bing Maps and International Crisis Group, “Sudan: Defining the North-South Border,” Policy Briefing, Africa Briefing No. 75, 2 September 2010. The boundaries and names shown and the designations (black boxes) used on this map are for illustration purposes only. Final boundary between the Republic of Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan has not yet been determined. Final status of Abyei is likewise not yet determined.

Sudan. Mbeki and Menkerios participated agreement between the parties on oil and on Sudan and South Sudan on 23 August, in the meeting. Given the presence of Mbeki, other financial arrangements to be signed by with a briefing by Assistant Secretary-Gen- a representative of a regional organisation, the parties in the near future. eral for Peacekeeping Operations Edmond the meeting was held in the interactive dia- As for next steps, Mbeki alluded to the 3 Mulet. He noted that the parties are now logue format. Mbeki told Council members August communiqué in which the AU Peace expected to make an effort to resolve out- that the Safe Demilitarised Border Zone and Security Council (PSC) encourages fur- standing issues by 22 September, in accor- and Joint Border Verification and Monitor- ther engagement of the AUHIP with the par- dance with the AU’s decision to extend the ing Mechanism could still not be established ties, requesting a comprehensive report from original 3 August deadline. because Sudan was reluctant to accept the it by 22 September on the status of negotia- On 24 August, the Sudan Sanctions Com- map that the AU had proposed as the basis tions. He also noted that the AUHIP’s report mittee met in consultations to discuss the of negotiations on the border zone. (It seems would include proposals for resolving any interim report of the Panel of Experts (PoE). that Sudan is concerned that using the map outstanding matters between the parties. The report, due in mid-May, was submit- could prejudice future deliberations on bor- During the meeting, Menkerios indicated ted to the Committee in late July; it had der demarcation). He also noted that the two that a recently formed tripartite commit- been delayed because the PoE was unable parties had established a Panel of Experts to tee (made up of the AU, the UN and the to secure in a timely fashion visas to conduct craft non-binding recommendations regard- Arab League) would submit an action plan its investigations in Darfur. During the con- ing the status of five disputed areas along the to Sudan for the provision of aid in South sultations, it appears that the Committee also Sudan-South Sudan border. Mbeki added Kordofan and Blue Nile states. discussed the timing of a visit by Ambassador that he expected the document outlining the The Council met again in consultations Osorio and other Committee members to

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 9 Sudan and South Sudan (con't)

Darfur. The trip has been tentatively planned the signing of the memoranda of understand- Council should characterise the 20 July aerial for October. ing by Sudan and the SPLM-N on humani- bombardment along the border that South Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, tarian access to civilian populations in South Sudan says occurred in its Northern Bahr el whose country has been hosting the peace Kordofan and Blue Nile. Ghazal state, as was later verified by the UN talks between Sudan and South Sudan, died Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). Some on 20 August. Zenawi had reportedly been Options members believed that this aspect of the following the negotiations closely, talking Options for the Council include: statement needed to be more objective and often with Mbeki. US Special Envoy for • taking a low-key approach until it has condemn any support for armed rebel groups Sudan and South Sudan, Princeton Lyman, time to study carefully the Secretary-General by the parties. (Sudan has contended that it said that Zenawi “played a very dramatic role report on the status of negotiations (expected was targeting an armed rebel group during in helping bring about stability in Sudan and by 2 September) and also review the AUHIP the 20 July bombardment). South Sudan,” alluding in particular to the report (expected by 22 September); Several Council members seem encour- fact that Ethiopia provides peacekeepers to • dispatching a Council mission to the aged that members of the Sanctions Com- the UN mission in Abyei. (The resumption region to impress upon the parties the impor- mittee will likely visit Darfur in the upcoming of talks between Sudan and South Sudan, tance of resolving the remaining differences months. However, there is some difference of originally planned for 26 August, was delayed between them; and opinion on the Council about the degree of until after the state funeral on 2 Septem- • considering the imposition of mea- transparency that the Council should accord ber. At press time, it appeared that the par- sures under article 41 of the UN Charter to the PoE’s work. Some members are con- ties would reconvene in Addis Ababa on 4 (i.e. sanctions) if the parties fail to make cerned that last year’s final PoE report, which September.) significant progress in resolving remain- was circulated to Council members in late On 24 August, a spokesperson for the UN ing issues separating them by the AU- January, has not been publicly released. Oth- High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), extended deadline of 22 September. ers, however, believe that it is not the Coun- expressed alarm at the health condition of cil’s obligation to release the report, as they 170,000 refugees from Sudan residing in Council Dynamics think that it contains inaccuracies. Differ- camps and settlements in Unity and Upper Several members are encouraged that Sudan ent perspectives regarding whether or not to Nile states in South Sudan. He noted that the and South Sudan have made some prog- make public the report is relevant to Council rainy season and the cold weather have pre- ress, particularly given that there has been a sanctions regimes more generally; for exam- cipitated diarrhoea, malaria and respiratory- reduction of violence between them and that ple, the final reports of the PoEs for the 1718 tract ailments among refugees. The spokes- an agreement has been reached on oil and Sanctions Committee (North Korea) and person also said that the dramatic increase other financial arrangements. However, there the 2010 final report of the 1737 Sanctions in refugees in recent months has taxed the is concern among some members that the Committee (Iran) were not published. capacity of UNHCR and other agencies to agreement has yet to be signed and questions The US is the lead country on Sudan- address hygiene and sanitation concerns in remain among some members about the South Sudan issues. • the camps. commitment of the parties to its implemen- tation. More broadly, there is also uneasiness Key Issues among several Council members about the The key issue for the Council is how to cali- various other significant issues that remain to brate an approach that recognises progress be resolved by the parties, such as establish- made in the negotiations but compels Sudan ing a buffer zone between the two countries, and South Sudan to continue to negotiate in border demarcation, the final status of Abyei good faith and resolve their remaining differ- and the status of each country’s citizens liv- ences in a sustainable way. ing on the other side of the border. Other important issues for the Council It also appears that the negotiations on include: the presidential statement of 31 August at • how to overcome the deadlock in estab- least mildly disturbed the delicate unity that lishing the border mechanisms that has had been building over the past few months been created in part by Sudan’s unwilling- in the Council on Sudan-South Sudan ness to accept the AU map as a basis for issues. One area of difference in negotiat- negotiations; ing the statement was how to characterise • how to support the parties’ efforts to final- Sudan’s unwillingness to accept the AU map ise and implement their agreement on oil and proposed as a basis for negotiations on the other financial arrangements; boundaries of the Safe Demilitarised Bor- • how to support negotiations on political der Zone. Some seemed to prefer to use issues between Sudan and the SPLM-N; and language less critical of Sudan than oth- • how to build on the progress made with ers. Another area of difference was how the

10 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 Libya

Expected Council Action elected Mohammed Magarief as its President Human Rights-Related Developments In September, the Council expects a briefing on 9 August with, among others, the task of In an interview on 6 August with the UN News on developments in Libya and the upcom- appointing a new government. (The GNC Service, Martin highlighted human rights, transi- ing report of the Secretary-General provid- must also decide on how to press ahead with tional justice and the rule of law as being among ing the six-month review of the UN Support the drafting of a new constitution. There the key areas of work of UNSMIL. A major legacy Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), requested by remains speculation about how the 60-mem- of the past that had to be resolved was miss- ing persons, he said. Martin added that another resolution 2040. ber constitutional committee will be formed. ongoing problem was the continued detention In addition, Ambassador José Filipe The GNC must also define the powers of of those imprisoned at the end of the conflict, Moraes Cabral (Portugal), chair of the Libya the new President and vote for his deputies when capacity to screen those cases and deal Sanctions Committee, is also expected to before full parliamentary elections can be with them properly within the law did not yet provide a regular update to the Council on held next year.) exist. Subject to the views of the new govern- ment, Martin anticipated that human rights would the Committee’s work, including an interim In other developments, four staff mem- continue to be a prime focus for the work of report by its Panel of Experts. bers from the International Criminal Court UNSMIL. UNSMIL’s mandate expires on 12 March (ICC) were released during a visit to Libya 2013. by ICC President Sang-Hyun Song on 2 July. (The four-person ICC defence team was A bomb exploded near the vehicle of an Key Recent Developments detained in Zintan on 7 June following its Egyptian diplomat in Benghazi on 20 August, On 2 July, UN High Commissioner for visit to Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, son of deposed but no one was hurt. Human Rights Navi Pillay briefed Council Col. Muammar Qaddafi. Defence counsel The military has been targeted repeat- members in consultations on Libya. Pillay Melinda Taylor was accused of clandestinely edly in bomb attacks. On 1 August, a bomb focused on the issue of civilian casualties passing Qaddafi a coded letter from a fugitive damaged the building housing the depart- resulting from NATO’s air campaign in 2011, former aide, Mohammed Ismail.) On 6 July, ment of military intelligence in Benghazi. as well as on the detainees currently being Taylor said during a press conference that On 4 August, a car bomb exploded near the held by different revolutionary brigades. On her actions in Libya were “consistent” with offices of the military police in Tripoli. On 19 10 July, members of the Council issued a her legal obligations and that “these recent August, twin car-bomb blasts detonated near press statement (SC/10704) welcoming the events have completely underscored that it the Military Academy and the Interior Min- 7 July elections for the new General National will be impossible for Mr. Qaddafi to be tried istry in Tripoli, killing two people. Congress (GNC). On 18 July, UNSMIL’s in an independent and impartial manner in Targeted killings of prominent figures also then head, Ian Martin, briefed the Council Libyan courts.” continued. On 10 August, Gen. Mohamed and said that the elections were an “extraor- On 31 July, according to a filing by his Hadia al-Feitouri, a senior defense ministry dinary accomplishment” marred by some defence lawyers, Qaddafi asked to be tried at official, was shot dead by unknown gunmen violent incidents, mostly in the east. Ibrahim the ICC instead of in Libya. Ahmed al-Jehani, in Benghazi. Dabbashi, Libyan deputy permanent repre- the Libyan representative to the ICC, said on sentative, also addressed the Council, stating 20 August that the trial would begin in Libya Key Issues that “according to all observers, the elections in September. An overarching issue for the Council contin- were free and fair and met all international A number of security-related incidents ues to be determining UNSMIL’s long-term standards.” The briefing was followed by continued to highlight various challenges. role in Libya, in particular following the elec- consultations. Foreigners were the target in several cases. tion of the GNC. There were several notable electoral, On 31 July, seven Iranian relief workers The Council’s role in the implementation political and constitutional developments. were abducted by a group of armed men in of resolution 1970 with regard to its refer- According to the official results of the 7 July Benghazi soon after they started a mission for ral of the situation in Libya to the ICC and election, former interim Prime Minister the Libyan Red Crescent Association. any referral-related trials is another impor- Mahmoud Jibril’s National Forces Alliance The International Committee of the Red tant issue. took 39 out of the 80 seats reserved for politi- Cross (ICRC) has suspended its operations Preventing large-scale reprisals and kill- cal parties. (The remaining 120 seats were in Misrata and Benghazi after unknown indi- ings in a post-conflict Libya, as well as con- reserved for independent candidates.) On viduals attacked its office in Misrata on 5 cerns about human rights violations and the 8 August, the National Transitional Coun- August. (This was the fifth time in less than reported torture of detainees, are closely cil (NTC) ceased to exist when it handed three months that the ICRC had been tar- related issues for the Council. power to the newly elected GNC. The GNC geted in Misrata or Benghazi.) Preventing heavy weaponry from

UN DOCUMENTS Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2040 (12 March 2012) extended the mandate of UNSMIL and the Panel of Experts by 12 months, with a requirement to review and adjust the mandate within six months. S/RES/1973 (17 March 2011) authorised all necessary measures to protect civilians in Libya and enforce the arms embargo, imposed a no-fly zone, strengthened the sanctions regime and established a Panel of Experts. S/RES/1970 (26 February 2011) referred the situation in Libya to the ICC, imposed an arms embargo and targeted sanctions and estab- lished a sanctions committee. Security Council Press Statement SC/10704 (10 July 2012) welcomed the holding of the 7 July elections. SC/10674 (15 June 2012) expressed concern at the detention of the ICC staff members. Latest Secretary-General’s Report S/2012/129 (1 March 2012) Panel of Experts Report S/2012/163 (17 February 2012) Meeting Records S/PV.6807 (18 July 2012) was Martin’s briefing to the Council.Other S/2012/471 (20 June 2012) was from the Permanent Representative of Libya to the Secretary-General and the Council President, convey- ing information regarding the arrest of the ICC delegation. S/2012/440 (13 June 2012) was the Secretary-General’s letter transmitting the President of the ICC’s letter to the Council President. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Chair of the Sanctions Committee José Filipe Moraes Cabral (Portugal) Sanctions Committee’s Panel of Experts Simon Dilloway, UK (finance) Theodore M. Murphy, US (regional) Giovanna Perri, Italy (finance) Salim Raad, Lebanon (heavy weapons) Savannah de Tessières, France (small arms and light weapons)Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNSMIL Ian Martin (UK)

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 11 Libya (con't) proliferating in Libya, as well as its continu- current mandate of UNSMIL. with parts of the text, in particular the fact ing spillover in the Sahel region is an ongoing Regarding human rights, rule of law that the draft text was referring to the elec- issue for Council members. and transitional justice in Libya, the Coun- tions as “successful”. Some other Council cil could ask for regular briefings from members also felt that this was not entirely Underlying Problems UNSMIL and other relevant UN actors on appropriate as the voting process was not The pre-election divisions that existed within issue-specific developments. incident free. Moreover, Russia was uncom- Libya’s political and military elite are likely to With regard to the ICC, the Coun- fortable with the inclusion of reference to the remain a cause for concern in post-election cil could ask for a briefing from the role of UNSMIL in the forthcoming consti- Libya. ICC Prosecutor to receive an update. tutional process before the Council had held Instances of settling old disputes between an in-depth discussion regarding UNSMIL’s anti and pro-Qaddafi forces, often accompa- Council Dynamics post-election role. nied by human rights violations, continue to Council members appear to be in agree- Some Council members are alarmed by pose serious challenges. ment in supporting the soon-to-be new gov- the decision to commence the trial of Qad- ernment and are satisfied for UNSMIL to dafi in Libya. To them, it is a clear violation Options remain under the same mandate for the time of Libya’s obligations under international law An option for the Council could be to await being. They are mindful that any changes and resolution 1970 that referred the situa- the formation of the new government and to UNSMIL’s mandate would have to take tion in Libya to the ICC. then reconsider UNSMIL’s long-term role into account the views of the new authorities The UK is the lead country on Libya. • according to the recommendations presented and that any revision before then would be in the Secretary-General’s report. premature. Another option for the Council could be But differences over Libya have continued to encourage, through a presidential state- within the Council. During the preparation ment, the GNC to recommit to long-term of the press statement welcoming the elec- state-building and to re-emphasise the tions, Russia broke silence due to concerns

Mali

Expected Council Action the request of the Economic Community of restoring constitutional order in the country. In September, the Council will likely be West African States (ECOWAS) for a Secu- “Mali’s socio-political forces remain divided briefed in consultations by Jeffrey Feltman, rity Council mandate authorising the deploy- over support for the transitional arrange- the head of the Department for Political ment of an ECOWAS stabilisation force. The ments and, more broadly, over future pros- Affairs, on an integrated strategy for the Sahel briefers included Secretary-General Ban pects for the country,” he said. “The military region encompassing security, governance, Ki-moon and Salamatu Hussaini-Suleiman, junta reportedly maintains a strong influence development, human rights and humanitar- Commissioner for Political Affairs for Peace over the transitional process. It has retained ian issues, as requested in resolution 2056. and Security of ECOWAS. The Secretary- control over the security and defence forces (On 26 September, at the margins of the General’s language was bleak: “a regional pil- and continues to violently repress fellow General Assembly, the Secretary-General will lar of democracy has completely fallen away soldiers suspected of having supported the host a high-level meeting on developments in from the constitutional path, undermining attempted counter-coup of 30 April.” He the Sahel, including Mali.) years of progress.” He furthermore noted added: “I strongly encourage the government A Council press statement will be the that “an already terrible food and nutrition of Mali to develop an overarching political likely outcome. emergency [has grown] even worse, exposing strategy to return the country to constitu- thousands more people to severe shortages of tional order and re-establish state authority Key Recent Developments food, water and basic services. In areas where in the north. The strategy should clearly spell On 8 August, the Council was briefed on there was previously stability and peaceful out responses to genuine socio-economic and developments in Mali since a military coup coexistence, extremism, criminal activity political grievances, the modalities for politi- overthrew the democratically-elected govern- and violations of human rights have gained cal dialogue and negotiations, and the aims ment of the country on 22 March and on the ground”. of eventual military action against extremist ongoing strategic planning efforts following Limited progress has been made in forces in the north.”

UN DOCUMENTS Security Council Resolution S/RES/2056 (5 July 2012) was a resolution expressing the Council’s full support for the joint efforts of ECOWAS, the AU and the transitional authorities in Mali in trying to re-establish constitutionality and territorial integrity.Presidential Statement S/PRST/2012/9 (4 April 2012) strongly condemned assaults by rebels in northern Mali and the seizure of power in the capital by elements of the armed forces in Bamako. Press Statement SC/10741 (10 August 2012) was after statements by the Secretary-General, representatives of ECOWAS and the AU, and by the Permanent Representative of Mali. Meeting Record S/PV.6820 (8 August 2012) was a meeting on Peace and security in Africa focusing on Mali. Letter S/2012/444 (13 June 2012) was from Ambassador Baso Sangqu (South Africa) containing the joint communiqué issued after the sixth consultative meeting between the UN Security Council and the AU Peace and Security Council. Secretary General’s Reports S/2012/510 (29 June 2012) was the Secretary-General’s latest report on the UN Office for West Africa (UNOWA). S/2012/42 (17 January 2012) was the UN interagency assessment mission report on the Sahel.

12 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 Mali(con't)

For her part, Hussaini-Suleiman noted of the State (CNRDRE), the military junta multifaceted problems of the Sahel, in par- that “terrorists and criminal networks” were that staged the 22 March coup, “cease their ticular the growing spread of terrorist groups trying to consolidate, and were committing continuous interference in the political pro- and terrorist activities in the region. “atrocious war crimes” in the north of the cess.” The statement called on the transi- In this context, restoring constitutional- country. She said that the “objective of those tional authorities of Mali to “ensure the full ity in Mali and re-establishing its territorial terrorist groups and transnational organized restoration and preservation of the consti- integrity is a particularly pressing issue. criminals is clear, namely, to create a safe tutional order, including effective civilian Tackling the perennial humanitarian cri- haven and a coordinating centre in the north control over the security and Armed Forces.” sis in the Sahel region, as well as the massive of Mali for continental terrorist networks, Members took note of the ECOWAS techni- human rights violations, especially against including Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, cal assessment mission that visited Mali from women and non-Muslims in the Islamist- MUJAO, Boko Haram and al-Shabaab.” If 6-18 July 2012, with the participation of the controlled parts of Mali, are further key that objective is realised, she added, then “no UN and the AU, and encouraged ECOWAS issues of concern. country in Africa, or indeed outside the con- to have the transitional government “clarify tinent, will be safe.” its position”. Options Prior to the briefing, Council members In this regard, a clear request from the Options for the Council include: had received a note verbale from the Perma- government of Mali has been the key for • issuing a press statement after the briefing nent Mission of Côte d’Ivoire—the current Council support of the ECOWAS mission. welcoming the Secretary-General’s initiative chair of ECOWAS—containing a detailed This, however, was put in doubt during a in organising the high-level meeting on the ECOWAS concept paper for deploying a sta- 9-13 August meeting of ECOWAS military Sahel; or bilisation force in Mali. According to the note commanders and the government of Mali • issuing a presidential statement requesting verbale, ECOWAS proposes to deploy a force in Bamako. While transitional President the appointment by the Secretary-General of 3,245 troops— to which Nigeria (694), Dioncounda Traoré is open to the idea and of a Special Envoy for Mali as a first step Togo (581), Niger (541) and Senegal (350) is making progress towards a new politi- towards forging a more effective approach to would be the biggest contributors—in three cal consensus in the country, the military the complex issues facing the country. phases. The objectives of these phases would appears hostile. The transitional Defense be, respectively, securing the transitional gov- Minister, Col. Yamoussa Camara, an ally of Council Dynamics ernment in the capital, Bamako; restructur- coup-leader Capt. Amadou Sanogo, told Though there is consensus among Council ing and retraining the Malian army; and then ECOWAS commanders that the stabilisa- members on the need for urgent action to launching an operation on radical Islamist tion force should not be deployed in Bam- tackle the multiple crises in the Sahel region, forces in order to regain control of northern ako and should not take the lead over the including re-establishing constitutional order Mali. The note verbale stated that the over- Malian army in reconquering the north. (The in Mali and ensuring the re-establishment riding legal basis for the stabilisation force ECOWAS note verbale described the army as of the state’s authority over the northern is the restoration of sovereignty and regain- having a “collapsed command and control half of the country, there is little agreement ing territorial integrity in the north of Mali, system” and low morale. It is, according to yet on practical action. ECOWAS proposed where 10 percent of Mali’s population of 15 the note, infiltrated by “extremist elements” that its stabilisation force begin to deploy to million live. The note verbale put the cost of and is crippled by “misplaced professional Bamako and other towns in southern Mali the operation—which involves both military ego/pride.”) in October or November, with the build-up and humanitarian aspects—at about $410 The problems in the wider Sahel region— of a strike force to be complete by January million. (The note verbale is not exact about which spans some 8 million square kilo- 2013 and the campaign to recover the north the mission’s duration, stating only that the metres between Mauritania and Libya to be launched in February. Some Council humanitarian component will be tackled in in the north and Burkina Faso and Nige- members fear those four months could eas- six months, and the entire mission will tran- ria in the south—were examined by a UN ily become extended, allowing the Islamists sition “after an acceptable level of stability inter-agency assessment mission from groups, Mouvement pour l’unicité et le jihad en has been achieved.” By that time, ECOWAS 7-23 December 2011. The mission’s report Afrique de l’Ouest, Ansar Dine and Al-Qaida in will hand over responsibility to the AU and (S/2012/42), which described the impact of the Islamic Maghreb, enough time to become the UN.) the return of about 420,000 migrant work- entrenched in the difficult semi-arid terrain. On 10 August, Council members issued ers to Mali, Niger and Mauritania, predicted Other Council members fear that a prema- a press statement (SC/10741) encouraging serious instability in the region also because ture offer of military aid to the regime in ECOWAS to prepare “detailed options for weapons from Libya are finding their way Bamako, in which the coup members appear the objectives, means and modalities” of the into the hands of separatist and jihadist to be influential, could be a retreat from the proposed regional stabilisation force and guerrillas. AU’s and the Security Council’s policy of indicating that the note verbale did not clarify zero tolerance for military coups. crucial issues. The statement demanded that Key Issues Council members also want any military the members of the National Council for the The key issue for the Council is to devise operation in Mali and the region to include Recovery of Democracy and the Restoration an overarching strategy to tackle the non-ECOWAS neighbours, specifically

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 13 Mali(con't)

Algeria, Mauritania and Morocco, who peace operations—the RECAMP initiative— see a clear attempt at negotiation with some would have clear strategic interests in such with pre-positioned supplies at a base in Sen- of the elements in the north, since outright an operation. France, which has taken the egal, and is the most robust in advocating military victory by ECOWAS in the north is lead on Mali in the Council, has a long-estab- support for ECOWAS. It appears that both doubtful. • lished programme of support for African France and Morocco, though, would want to

Guinea-Bissau

Expected Council Action million plan to build a mine and deep-water nuts was forecast to drop to about 100,000 In September, the Council will likely be port in Guinea-Bissau to handle bauxite. tonnes “as a result of the April 12 coup.” This, briefed in consultations by Jeffrey D. Felt- Coup leaders cited Angola’s military pres- he said, “is particularly disturbing” consider- man, the head of the Department for Politi- ence in the country, which they claimed was ing that cashew production accounts for 90 cal Affairs, on the latest Secretary-General’s meant to protect former Prime Minister and percent of the national income and the sec- report (S/2012/554) on the UN Integrated presidential candidate Carlos Gomes Júnior, tor employs almost 80 percent of the labour Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau as the key reason for the 12 April coup. force. (UNIOGBIS). The transitional government, which Four days after the briefing, on 30 July, No outcome is expected from the briefing. includes two army officers, is led by Ser- Council members, in a press statement The mandate of UNIOGBIS expires on ifo Nhamadjo as President and Rui Duarte (SC/10734), called on all political and civil 28 February 2013. Barros as Prime Minister. The ECOWAS society actors in Guinea-Bissau to engage brokered deal which created the transitional in a consensual, inclusive and “nationally Key Recent Developments government resulted in the military formally owned” process to restore constitutional On 21 July, the transitional government in retreating to the barracks and the reinstate- order in the country. The statement under- Guinea-Bissau set up on 23 May as a result ment of the elected Parliament, though there lined the need for “concrete measures in of a deal brokered by ECOWAS following is no obvious role for it in the transition key areas for long-term stability in Guinea- the 12 April coup, elaborated a four-point phase. ECOWAS has since deployed a 629- Bissau, among those the reform of the secu- program of action focusing on the following: man police and army contingent, called the rity sector, the fight against impunity and • preparing for and conducting presidential ECOWAS Mission in Bissau (ECOMIB). the fight against drug-trafficking.” Coun- and legislative elections in April 2013; It replaced the Angolan military mission, cil members condemned the “continu- • strengthening the rule of law, including MISSANG, which completed withdrawal ing interference of the military in politics” combating impunity and reforming the jus- from Guinea-Bissau on 9 June. ECOMIB and expressed concern about “reports of tice sector; is to assist in security-sector reform and an increase in drug trafficking since the 12 • combating organised crime, corruption help steer the country through the transi- April coup d’état.” The statement stressed and drug trafficking; and tion to civilian rule following the April 2013 the importance of coordination of interna- • embarking on security sector reform. elections. tional efforts to address the crisis in Guinea- That same month, the country experi- On 23 August, the West African Economic Bissau and called on the Secretary-General enced a crippling strike by health workers and Monetary Union announced a loan of to consider “the convening of a […]high- protesting unpaid salaries. $28.5 million to Guinea-Bissau to be used level meeting, bringing together the UN, On 23 August, the transitional govern- for security sector reforms. AU, ECOWAS, CPLP, EU and other inter- ment announced that it will renegotiate a deal The Council last discussed Guinea-Bis- national partners, as well as all relevant with a mining company, Angola Bauxite, as sau on 26 July when Joseph Mutaboba, the national stakeholders in order to produce the current agreement, signed by the ousted Secretary-General’s Special Representa- a comprehensive and integrated strategy for civilian government, is unfair. Angola Baux- tive and head of UNIOGBIS, said that the the full restoration of constitutional order in ite was jointly created in 2007 by the gov- humanitarian and economic situation in the Guinea-Bissau, the promotion of democracy ernments of Angola and Guinea-Bissau and country had deteriorated further. He cited and rule of law.” On 13 June, the Council various private investors to carry out mining the Guinea-Bissau Farmers’ Association as announced the appointment of Ambassa- operations and investments, including a $500 saying that the 2012 production of cashew dor Mohammed Loulichki (Morocco) as

UN DOCUMENTS Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2048 (18 May 2012) imposed travel bans on coup leaders and set up a new sanctions committee. S/RES/2030 (21 December 2011) renewed the mandate of UNIOGBIS until 28 February 2013. S/RES/1949 (23 November 2010) renewed the mandate of UNIOGBIS until 31 December 2011. Presidential Statement S/PRST/2012/15 (21 April 2012) was on the coup in Guinea-Bissau. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2012/554 (17 July 2012) was the Secretary-General’s report on UNIOGBIS covering developments since 21 October 2011. S/2012/280 (30 April 2012) was a special report of the Secretary-General on the latest developments in Guinea-Bissau. S/2011/655 (21 October 2011) covered major developments in Guinea-Bissau since June 2011. Security Council Press Statements SC/10734 (30 July 2012) was issued after 26 July briefing by Mutaboba, Viotti, and representatives of ECOWAS and CPLP. SC/10721 (20 July 2012) was issued after six more army officers were subjected to foreign travel ban by the Sanctions Committee. SC/10640 (8 May 2012) was issued after the 7 May briefing by Joseph Mutaboba and Ambassador Maria Luiza Viotti (Brazil). SC/10521 (13 January 2012) was issued after the briefing by B. Lynn Pascoe, head of the Department of Political Affairs, on 10 January. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6818 (26 July 2012) was on the situation in Guinea-Bissau. S/PV.6755 (21 April 2012) was on the situation in Guinea-Bissau. S/PV.6743 (28 March 2012) was a briefing on the situation in Guinea-Bissau by Mutaboba and Viotti. S/PV.6648 (3 November 2011) was a briefing on the situation in Guinea-Bissau. Letter S/2012/254 (5 April 2012) was from Kadré Désiré Ouedraogo, President of the ECOWAS Commission. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNIOGBIS Joseph Mutaboba (Rwanda) Duration From 21 December 2011 until 28 February 2013. Chair of the Guinea-Bissau Configuration of the PBCAmbassador Maria Luiza Viotti (Brazil)

14 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 Guinea-Bissau (con't)

Human Rights-Related Developments organised-crime networks on the military and prominent role in the Council on this issue— UNIOGBIS held a two-day colloquium on justice political elite, as well as undertaking a com- it drafted the last statement, as well as reso- attended by 60 representatives of the country’s prehensive security-sector reform process. lution 2048—wants to see a greater role for criminal justice institutions (judges, prosecu- the CPLP, which has been neutralised in tors and police investigators). At the end of the Options Guinea-Bissau by ECOWAS. Togo, which 1 August event, Prosecutor-General Edmundo Options for the Council include: leads on Guinea-Bissau in the Council, has Mendes underlined the need for greater coordi- nation among justice institutions in the delivery • issuing a press statement calling for the stuck to the line adopted by ECOWAS, of justice and upholding basic human rights. The convening of a meeting of all international which is to allow the transitional govern- participants recommended, among other issues, players on Guinea-Bissau and reiterating the ment one year to conduct elections and to that the government improve formal communica- call for clear steps towards constitutionality avoid any reference to the legitimacy of the tion among the various institutions of justice and by the transitional government; or elections of 18 March or that of front-run- provide additional training for judges and justice officials. • taking no action at this moment. ner Gomes Júnior. There is, in other words, a stalemate on Council and Broader Dynamics this issue, and this is unlikely to be broken chair of the new Sanctions Committee on Though there is unanimous agreement about in the foreseeable future. An indication of a Guinea-Bissau. The Committee was estab- the need for restoring constitutional order in new approach could be when, as is envisaged, lished by resolution 2048, adopted on 18 Guinea-Bissau, the Council remains divided the authorities in Guinea-Bissau appoint a May. On 18 July, the Committee added on some key approaches. Most Council new Permanent Representative to the UN. six individuals—all of them Guinea-Bissau members reject the idea of dealing directly If the credentials of the new representative army officers—to be subjected to foreign with the transitional government, which is the are accepted by the Secretary-General, then travel ban, in addition to five senior offic- product of a deal with an illegitimate military it might send a signal to many countries that ers already subjected to the sanctions under junta, and they have not recognised it. There currently do not accept the legitimacy of the resolution 2048. is considerable anxiety within the Council transitional regime—including members of around giving the impression of endorsing the EU and some key members of the Secu- Key Issues the 12 April coup or rewarding in any way rity Council—that there is perhaps need for a The key issue for the Council remains the the coup leaders, who—though retreated to new approach towards Guinea-Bissau. • restoration of constitutional order and the the barracks—remain influential in the gov- prevention of further military incursions in ernment, with two of their handpicked allies politics. (military officers) being part of the transi- Other issues include combating the tional government. stranglehold of drug-trafficking and Portugal, which has been playing a

Sierra Leone

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments trip to the Council on 31 May Ambassador The Council is expected to renew the man- On 23 May, Council members, led by Sangqu noted that the Council delegation date of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Ambassadors Sir Mark Lyall Grant (UK) and got “a clear and welcome commitment to a Office in Sierra Leone (UNIPSIL), which Baso Sangqu (South Africa), visited Sierra free, fair and transparent [electoral] process” expires on 15 September. Jens Anders Toy- Leone as part of a three-country visit to West from President Koroma. He also felt reas- berg-Frandzen (Denmark), the Executive Africa. The Sierra Leone leg was intended to sured after discussions with all political par- Representative of the Secretary-General “encourage continued efforts to consolidate ties and the NEC that “good progress was in Sierra Leone and head of UNIPSIL, as peace and national reconciliation.” being made in preparing” for the elections well as Ambassador Guillermo Rishchyn- During the trip, Council members met on 17 November. ski (Canada), the chair of the Peacebuild- with President Ernest Bai Koroma and other Sangqu mentioned, however, that the ing Commission’s configuration for Sierra cabinet members, as well as with representa- “political environment in the country con- Leone, will likely brief the Council. Joseph B. tives from all registered political parties, the tinues to be dominated by intense rivalry Dauda, Sierra Leone’s Foreign Minister, is National Electoral Commission (NEC) and and mistrust between the two major also expected to make a statement. members of civil society. Reporting on the political parties”—the ruling All Peoples’

UN DOCUMENTS Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2005 (14 September 2011) extended the mandate of UNIPSIL until 15 September 2012. S/RES/1941 (29 September 2010) extended the mandate of UNIPSIL until 15 September 2011. S/RES/1688 (16 June 2006) requested the Secretary-General to assist in the transfer of former Liberian President Charles Taylor to The Hague. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2011/554 (2 September 2011) covers the period from 1 March to 31 August 2011. S/2011/119 (9 March 2011) covers the period from 1 September 2010 to 28 February 2011. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6777 (31 May 2012) was on West Africa. S/PV.6739 (22 March 2012) was on UNIPSIL. S/PV.6609 (12 September 2011) was on UNIPSIL. Other A/66/675–S/2012/70 (30 January 2012) was the report of the PBC on its fifth session. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Executive Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNIPSIL Jens Anders Toyberg-Frandzen (Denmark) Size and Composition of Mission Staff strength (as of 31 March 2011): 34 international civilians, 29 local civilians and 6 UN volunteers.Duration 4 August 2008 to present Chair of the Sierra Leone Configuration of the PBC Ambassador Guillermo Rishchynski (Canada)

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 15 Sierra Leone (con't)

Developments in the Peacebuilding The forthcoming elections in Novem- minimise fraud. But the 2,701,299 voters it Commission (PBC) ber remain the Council’s key interest in registered is only slightly higher than the fig- On 22 June, the chair of the PBC country-spe- Sierra Leone. Council resolution 2005 had ure for 2007 (2,621,313), and there was a cific configuration on Sierra-Leone, Ambassador underlined the “importance of the govern- decrease in voter numbers in the stronghold Guillermo Rishchynski (Canada), chaired an ment and the international community in of the SLPP in southern and eastern Sierra informal meeting of the PBC on Sierra Leone in continuing efforts to foster an environment Leone, prompting the opposition to assert New York to discuss preparations for the forth- coming elections. The NEC chair, Christiana that is conducive to the holding of peace- that the NEC neglected some areas to give Thorpe, attended the meeting. Toyberg-Frandzen ful, transparent, free and fair elections by the governing party and President Koroma and Sierra Leone government officials—includ- strengthening the national electoral and an undue advantage. ing the Inspector-General of Police, the head of democratic institutions, providing security, On the wider socioeconomic front, devel- the Political Parties Registration Commission, ensuring political access by the contestants opments were largely positive. Two Brit- and several representatives from civil society— participated in the meeting from Freetown via to all regions of the country, making avail- ish companies—African Minerals (AML) video link. Participants noted progress that had able forums for mediation and dialogue and and London Mining—began exporting been made in the electoral process, including the assuring the credibility of the electoral pro- iron ore from recently opened mines early completion of voter registration, and Rishchynski cess, and in doing so, contribute to the insti- in the year; one of these mines is believed announced that the basket fund set up by the tutional development and continued stabil- to have one of the largest iron ore deposits UN Development Programme has been fully subscribed. The Inspector-General of Police ity of the country.” in the world. This, coupled with reports of announced that 6,500 police officers would be The electoral process, however, remains significant offshore oil finds, led the Inter- trained in crowd control for the elections. Thorpe contentious. On 31 July, the chair of the national Monetary Fund (IMF) to proj- called attention to the logistical constraints of NEC, Christiana Thorpe, announced sig- ect an extraordinary growth of 35.9 per- fully servicing 3,000 polling stations across nificant increases in nomination fees for cent in gross domestic product in 2012. the country, noting that the NEC needed more vehicles. presidential and parliamentary elections. On 2 April, a Chinese company, Shan- The fee for presidential candidates was dong Iron and Steel, announced it would Rishchynski briefed the Security Council on 22 March (S/PV.6739) on his visit to Sierra Leone increased from 1 million leones (about invest $1.5 billion in AML’s Tonkolili mines. from 21-31 January. “There is a clear need to $230) to 100 million leones ($23,057.40) encourage more open dialogue, both among the and for parliamentary candidates from Key Issues political parties and with the national electoral 100,000 leones ($23) to 25 million leones The key issue for the Council is to ensure institutions,” he told Council members. “As elec- (about $5,764.35). Thorpe argued that the a smooth transition of UNIPSIL to a UN toral campaigning begins in earnest, all parties increases were to constitute about 23.5 per- country team in 2013. must redouble their efforts to implement their commitments under the joint communiqué of cent of the cost of the elections. A closely related critical issue is to ensure 2009.” Resolution 2005 encouraged the PBC Eight opposition parties condemned the that the November elections are conducted to “provide support to the government of Sierra increases, which are far above the regional peacefully, and that the results are broadly Leone and UNIPSIL in preparation for the 2012 average, in a joint statement issued on 3 accepted and seen as legitimate. elections, including the potential to mobilise August. On 10 August, Thorpe announced A further related issue is to ensure a rea- support from international partners, and in the implementation of the government’s Agenda for that the fees for parliamentary candidates sonably even field during the electoral period, Change and the UN Joint Vision Strategy and had been reduced to 10 million leones with the opposition being able to access the in that regard to advise and keep the Council (about $2,300) but that those for presiden- Sierra Leone Broadcasting Corporation updated, including on progress made in meeting tial candidates will remain unchanged. On (SLBC), which was jointly inaugurated by core peacebuilding objectives, as necessary.". 14 August, the Human Rights Commission the Secretary-General and President Koroma of Sierra Leone (HRCSL) issued a state- in June 2010. Congress (APC) and the opposition Sierra ment condemning the increases, including Another important issue is the setting up Leone Peoples’ Party (SLPP)—though he the lowered figure for parliamentary candi- of an Independent Police Complaints Com- felt “encouraged by the signing, by all the dates, noting that they constitute “a poten- mission, which was recommended by the political parties, of a declaration agreeing to tial ground for discrimination against low April 2009 Joint Communiqué, signed by contest the elections fairly and not to resort income earners and vulnerable groups […] the APC and the SLPP with the UN acting to violence.” On the contentious issue of the as only the rich and affluent will be able to as moral guarantor. purchase of weapons worth millions of dol- contest.” HRCSL rejected Thorpe’s argu- lars for the paramilitary police, which was ment that candidates should contribute to Options raised in the Council by outgoing UNIP- meeting the overall cost of conducting the The Council could: SIL head Michael von der Schulenburg on elections as “untenable” because funding • renew the mandate of UNIPSIL for 22 March, Sangqu reported that President elections is the constitutional responsibility another year, without modifications; Koroma “reassured us that those weap- of the government. • adopt a resolution extending the mandate ons were transferred to the armed forces Earlier, on 29 March, the NEC announced of UNIPSIL by six months with a strong of Sierra Leone in the presence of interna- voter registration figures. It used the biomet- political message on the need for fair and free tional observers.” ric voter registration system to eliminate or elections and a mandate to provide electoral

16 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 Sierra Leone (con't) assistance; or Council Dynamics a UN country team in early 2013. • adopt a resolution extending UNIPSIL’s Council members appear united in their The UK is the lead country in the Council mandate by one year and making UNIPSIL resolve to assist Sierra Leone through the on Sierra Leone. • transition to a UN country team contingent elections, and there is a general feeling on the free and fair conduct of the Novem- among Council members that once the elec- ber polls and overall peace and security after. tions are over, UNIPSIL should transition to

Liberia

Expected Council Action troops in three phases between August 2012 Human Rights-Related Development In September, the Council will consider the and July 2015, leaving the mission’s mili- On 3 August, the Office of the High Commissioner Secretary-General’s latest report on the UN tary strength at approximately 3,750 troops for Human Rights (OHCHR) expressed concern Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) and will likely for the foreseeable future. (UNMIL’s total about draft legislation currently being consid- renew the mission’s mandate. Karin Land- troop strength in April was 7,950.) The spe- ered by Liberia’s House of Representatives that gren, the Secretary-General’s Special Rep- cial report also recommended the addition would broadly criminalise homosexual behaviour. The legislation has already been passed by the resentative in Liberia and head of UNMIL, of three formed police units to UNMIL’s Senate. OHCHR called on Liberia to implement and Ambassador Staffan Tillander (Sweden), police component over the same period the international human rights treaties that it Chair of the Peacebuilding Comission (PBC) (UNMIL police’s current strength is 498 has ratified, including the Covenant on Civil and country-specific configuration for Libe- advisers and 845 officers in seven formed Political Rights, observing that laws criminalis- ria, are expected to brief, to be followed by units). ing homosexual acts between consenting adults violated individuals’ rights to privacy and to free- consultations. The special report was submitted to dom from discrimination. OHCHR said that laws UNMIL’s mandate expires on 30 Council members before their visit to Libe- criminalising homosexuality can have a negative September. ria on 19-20 May, and its recommendation impact not only on gay and lesbian people but concerning UNMIL troop numbers was also on vulnerable populations such as people Key Recent Developments clearly on Council members’ minds during living with HIV who might be in need of treat- ment but will not come forward because of fear th The Secretary-General’s 24 progress their meeting with President Ellen Johnson of prosecution, stigmatisation and discrimination. report on UNMIL (S/2012/641) submitted Sirleaf and members of the cabinet, as well to Council members on 15 August, added to as during their visit to the National Police two other recent reports on Liberia: the Sec- Training Academy. Reporting the trip to The 15 August report of the Secretary- retary-General’s special report on UNMIL the Council on 31 May, Ambassador Susan General highlights some of these challenges, of 16 April 2012 (S/2012/230) and the 20 Rice (US), who led the delegation, said that noting that though the security situation in June midterm report of the Panel of Experts members focused on security and rule-of- Liberia “remains generally stable” it is still (PoE) of the Liberia Sanctions Committee law institutions, reconciliation and position- fragile. It reported a 13 June incident in (S/2012/448). Both were discussed on 29 ing for the drawdown of UNMIL. Council which police investigating an alleged rubber June, when Assistant Secretary-General for members were particularly concerned at that theft in Buchanan, in the interior of the coun- peacekeeping, Edmond Mulet, briefed the point by the security challenges on the Libe- try, came under fire, probably from ex-com- Council on the former report and Coun- rian-Ivorian border, which they visited. Rice batants operating in the area. It also reported cil members then held consultations also reported that President Sirleaf briefed the the eruption of violence during a student pro- addressing the PoE report. Council members on national priorities and test march in Monrovia, the capital, on 18 The three reports amplify a key anxiety: called for greater international support for July, and the more troubling developments though UNMIL has been in operation since the Liberian National Police in line with an at the border with Côte d’Ivoire in which 2003, there are still critical gaps in Liberia’s expected decrease in UN security personnel. seven UN peacekeepers and at least 27 civil- governance and security apparatuses. The Council members were aware of the “chal- ians were killed on 8 June. The incidents, the Secretary-General has determined, how- lenges to improving” internal security, with report said, led to the closure of the Liberian ever, that none of the “current and projected Rice noting that these involved “financial border with Côte d’Ivoire on 9 July. The bor- threats facing Liberia” are of a military limitations, staffing and supporting remote der remained closed at press time. nature, and in the most recent report, reit- security outposts, and the threat posed by The report appears unusually sharply erated the recommendation of his 16 April international drug traffickers and organised critical of the Liberian government’s short- special report for the repatriation of 4,200 criminals.” comings in the areas of governance and

UN DOCUMENTS Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2025 (14 December 2011) renewed the sanctions regime and the mandate of the PoE for 12 months. S/RES/2008 (16 September 2011) extended the mandate of UNMIL until 30 September 2012. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2012/641 (15 August 2012) was the Secretary-General’s report on UNMIL providing an update on devel- opments since 16 April. S/2012/230 (16 April 2012) was the special report on UNMIL requested by resolution 2008. Meeting Records S/PV.6777 (31 May 2012) was the Council’s meeting on West Africa. Panel of Experts Report S/2012/448 (20 June 2012) was the midterm report of the PoE of the Liberia Sanctions Committee. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS UNMIL Special Representative of the Secretary-General Karin Landgren (Sweden) UNMIL Force Commander Maj. Gen. Muhammad Khalid (Pakistan) Chairman of the Sanctions Committee Abdullah Hussain Haroon (Pakistan) Panel of Experts on Liberia Augusta Muchai, Kenya (arms and coordinator); Caspar Fithen, UK (natural resources) and Christian Dietrich, US (finance).

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 17 Liberia (con't)

reconciliation, both of which bear directly “Limited commitment to comply with the contributions to the special account for on security. Notwithstanding a commit- minimum standards of the Kimberley Pro- UNMIL amounted to $142.6 million, and ment President Sirleaf reportedly made to cess Certification Scheme for Rough Dia- that the appropriation for the mission by the opposition last year to create “an inclu- monds remains apparent. The Presidential the General Assembly on 21 June 2012 was sive administration”, the report said that by Task Force on Diamonds has not met in $496.4 million, compared to $525.6 million 1 August only 11 out of the 447 persons she a year, while its technical committee con- for the period from 1 July 2011 to 30 June had appointed to the cabinet and other gov- vened in early July for the first time in seven 2012. ernment positions were not publicly affili- months. The Government’s capacity to con- ated to the governing party. Even members trol diamond mining and trade, a vital part Options of the governing Unity Party have protested of the certification scheme, continues to be Options for the Council include Sirleaf’s apparent nepotism, with her sons weak, with the network of regional offices • adopting a resolution renewing the man- and other relatives appointed to top posi- of the Government Diamond Office lack- date of UNMIL that incorporates the Sec- tions in the government. The report also ing basic capacity to monitor the movement retary-General’s recommendation regard- states that although the Anti-Corruption of diamonds out of affected counties. The ing the drawing down of UNMIL’s military Commission has investigated 25 high-profile US Agency for International Development component; cases since March 2009, and has submitted has indicated that it will discontinue fund- • adopting a resolution renewing the man- six to the Ministry of Justice for prosecu- ing for the property rights and artisanal dia- date but making the drawing down of the tion, “no prosecution has been completed mond development programme established military component of the mission contin- and there have been no convictions.” In fact, in 2010 to assist the Government to improve gent on the security situation in the country, the report said, the Sirleaf administration compliance, partially owing to insufficient particularly on the border with Côte d’Ivoire; “remains unresponsive to audits of public commitment.” and institutions,” and so far “no action has been • in either case, including a strong mes- taken to implement the recommendations Key Issues sage to the Liberian authorities regarding the contained in 45 audit reports prepared over The key issue for the Council is to carefully acute need for institutional reforms is a fur- the past three years by the General Auditing manage a smooth transition of UNMIL from ther option. Commission.” a large peacekeeping mission to an eventual Furthermore, the report says that despite successor presence, probably a small political Council Dynamics a phenomenal growth in the country’s fiscal office similar to the UN Integrated Peace- While Council members are generally situation—the 2012/13 budget amounted building Office in Sierra Leone. impressed by the performance of Liberia’s to $649 million, representing an increase of Striking a balance between the need to economy since 2006, there are growing con- about 25 percent over the previous year’s— wind down the mission and doing it when the cerns that critical governance and security the government has proposed reduction in gains from UNMIL’s work have taken root is areas in the country are being overlooked. funding for the police and immigration. This a key related issue, particularly in view of the While some fear that the timeline set by the in spite of “an overall increase of $3 mil- developments on the Liberia-Côte d’Ivoire Secretary-General for UNMIL’s military lion for the security sector, mainly in sup- border. drawdown may be unrealistic, there is a feel- port of the Armed Forces” of Liberia, the ing that a strong message ought to be sent to report said. On the critical issue of control- Underlying Problems the Liberian authorities to make important ling the exploitation of natural resources— Financing is a critical problem. The Secre- political decisions, and to start taking over which was a key factor in the country’s tary-General’s 15 August report notes that security responsibilities across the country. civil war—the report notes the following: as of 26 July 2012, the unpaid assessed The US leads on Liberia in the Council. •

Afghanistan

Expected Council Action to the meeting was anticipated. a roadside bomb killed five Afghan police The Council is scheduled to hold its quar- The mandate of UNAMA expires on 23 officers in Bamyan province in the centre terly debate on the UN Assistance Mission March 2013. of the country. On the same day, insurgents in Afghanistan (UNAMA) in September. attacked several targets in Kandahar city in Jan Kubiš, the Special Representative of the Key Recent Developments the south, including a bank and the police Secretary-General and head of UNAMA, is A spate of violent incidents occurred through- headquarters; media reported that three expected to brief. At press time, no outcome out Afghanistan in July and August. On 9 July, police officers and 14 insurgents were killed

UN DOCUMENTS Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2041 (22 March 2012) renewed UNAMA’s mandate until 23 March 2013. S/RES/2011 (12 October 2011) extended ISAF’s mandate until 13 October 2012. S/RES/1401 (28 March 2002) created UNAMA. Security Council Press Statements SC/10745 (17 August 2012) condemned attacks on civilians. SC/10722 (24 July 2012) wel- comed the Tokyo Conference on Afghanistan. Latest Secretary-General’s Report S/2012/462 (20 June 2012) Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6793 (27 June 2012) is the record of the most recent debate on Afghanistan.

18 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 Afghanistan (con't) in the fighting, while numerous others were after an argument occurred in the midst of a percent of the world’s opiates are pro- also wounded. Also on 9 July, a motorcycle joint US-Afghan patrol. duced in Afghanistan. He added that he bomb was detonated near the base of a mili- On 21 August, insurgents fired two rock- had told Afghan President Hamid Karzai tia force supported by NATO in Helmand ets into the Bagram US airbase. Shrapnel that addressing this problem needed to province, killing five people and wounding from the rocket fire hit and damaged a cargo be a “national priority” and that Karzai another 13. plane that had been carrying US General concurred. Afghan security forces and NATO on 10 Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint On 3 July, US Secretary of State Hill- July launched a series of operations through- Chiefs of Staff, who was visiting the base ary Clinton apologised for the cross-border out the country that led to the death of 12 at the time. A helicopter was also hit. It is aerial bombardment in November 2011 in insurgents and the detention of 20 suspected unclear whether General Dempsey was the which US forces pursuing insurgents from insurgents. target of the attack. Afghanistan into Pakistan accidentally killed A suicide bomber killed 23 people and Two other violent incidents occurred in 24 Pakistani troops. Following that incident, wounded 60 others at the 14 July wedding of Helmand on 26 August. Insurgents shot and Pakistan closed two key NATO supply routes the daughter of Ahmad Khan Samangani, an killed 10 Afghan troops in Washir District at into Afghanistan, which it reopened only in Afghan parliamentarian from the Uzbek eth- a checkpoint. A spokesperson for the provin- the aftermath of Clinton’s statement. On 8 nic group who had fought against the Taliban cial governor said that the attack had been July, several thousand protestors in Islam- in the 1990s, in northern Samangan prov- planned by insurgents who had infiltrated abad and other Pakistani cities rallied against ince. Samangani was one of several promi- Afghan security forces. In a separate incident, the reopening of the supply lines. nent figures killed in the attack, which also 17 civilians were killed while holding a party An international conference on Afghani- led to the deaths of Saeed Ahmad Sameh, a in a Taliban stronghold. Media reports indi- stan was held in Tokyo on 8 July. Donors prominent police official, and Muhammed cate that the victims, who either had their pledged more than $16 billion in civilian Khan, the provincial head of the intelligence throats slit or were decapitated, may have assistance to Afghanistan through 2015, services. been targeted because they worked for the as well as committed to provide support The Taliban carried out coordinated local government. through 2017 at or close to levels of the past attacks on 14 and 15 August. In Zaranj, the The Council held its last debate on decade. Afghanistan and its international capital of Nimroz province in the south- Afghanistan on 27 June. Briefing the Coun- partners agreed to a “mutual accountabil- west corner of the country, suicide bombers cil, Under-Secretary-General for Peace- ity framework” through which Afghanistan killed 30 people and wounded 60. (During keeping Operations Hervé Ladsous urged affirmed its commitment to the rule of law, the attacks, three additional suicide bombers members to support the “Solutions Strat- human rights, effective financial manage- were killed and four others captured before egy for Afghan Refugees”, the outcome of ment and good governance while the inter- they could set off their explosives.) In north- the May International Conference on the national community promised to enhance the ern Kunduz province, 10 civilians died and Solutions Strategy for Afghan Refugees effectiveness of its aid delivery. (Improved 30 were injured when an explosive device (with the support of the UN High Com- aid effectiveness includes such measures was remotely detonated. In a press statement missioner for Refugees, Afghanistan, Iran as increasing the percentage of aid aligned issued on 17 August (SC/10745), the Coun- and Pakistan held this meeting in Geneva). with Afghan government-established priori- cil condemned the attacks “in the strongest The resulting strategy is designed to sup- ties, as well as of contributions directly to the terms”. port the voluntary return and reintegration national budget.) The Council welcomed the A series of so-called “green on blue” of Afghan refugees in a sustainable manner conference in a press statement issued on 24 attacks have occurred in recent weeks and and, according to the joint communiqué July (SC/10722). months in which Afghan security forces have issued at the conference, rests on three pil- On 22 July, the World Bank made a shot their NATO trainers. More than 40 of lars: “continued support for voluntary repa- grant of $125 million to the government these attacks have occurred thus far in 2012. triation, investment in sustainable reintegra- of Afghanistan to help improve roads and After six NATO troops were killed in such tion in Afghanistan and assistance to host build bridges in rural areas of the country. “green on blue” violence in two separate inci- countries.” Ladsous also expressed concern The grant will support the Afghanistan Rural dents on 10 August in Helmand province, about the rise in targeting of civilians, not- Access Project, which strives to make basic NATO instituted measures to enhance the ing that insurgents were “responsible for services more readily available to the popu- protection of its trainers. NATO troops are up to 80 percent of civilian casualties.” He lation by increasing the number of Afghans now expected to have a loaded magazine further cautioned that, given budgetary residing within two kilometres of all-weather in their guns at all times. Additionally, one constraints, UNAMA’s 2013 budget “will roads. or more NATO soldiers—whose identities reflect the overall need for cuts that have will not be disclosed—are expected to watch been requested by member states.” closely the actions of Afghan trainees dur- Yuri Fedotov, Executive Director of ing joint activities. Nonetheless, in spite of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, also these efforts, an Afghan soldier killed two US addressed the Council during the debate. troops on 27 August in Helmand Province Fedotov noted that approximately 90

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Afghanistan (con't)

Human Rights-Related Developments implications to peace and security of the budget cuts to UNAMA and the possible UNAMA released its mid-year report on the pro- production and distribution of opiates within impact this could have on the mission’s tection of civilians in armed conflict on 8 August. and outside Afghanistan. effectiveness. Covering the first six months of 2012, the report A further key issue is how the Council The difficult security environment, the documented 1,145 civilians killed and 1,954 injured can most effectively support the Solutions drug trade and Afghan refugees are among in conflict-related violence. Of the 3,099 civilians Strategy for Afghan Refugees, building on the key concerns of Council members. Sev- killed or wounded, 925 were women or children. The report also recorded 34 attacks against Geneva conference held in early May. eral Council members, concerned with vio- schools and closures of schools, particularly lence resulting from insurgent attacks, have those for girls. Commenting on the findings, UN Options emphasised the importance of strengthen- High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay Options for the Council include: ing the Afghan security forces, especially as stressed the importance of holding human rights • listening to the briefing without taking the International Security Assistance Force violators accountable in efforts to bring down the number of civilian casualties. Pillay observed that action at the current time; (ISAF) draws down its military commitment. impunity for human rights abuses only embold- • inviting a representative of the UN High Russia has argued that inappropriate behav- ened the perpetrators. Commission for Refugees to brief the Coun- iour by foreign troops and accidental civilian cil on the implementation of the Solutions deaths caused by airstrikes have fuelled insta- Strategy for Afghan Refugees; bility in Afghanistan. It also notes that com- Key Issues • inviting the High Commissioner for batting the production and distribution of A key issue for the Council is how to address Human Rights to brief on protection of civil- drugs should be a key priority of the govern- the extremely challenging security situation ians issues; and ment. Pakistan, which hosts approximately in Afghanistan, especially the targeting of • requesting from the Secretary-General a 1.7 million Afghan refugees, highlights the civilians by insurgents. A related issue is strategic plan for UN support for reconcili- importance of the “Solutions Strategy for how to curtail the recent attacks on inter- ation efforts. Afghan Refugees”. national troops by Afghan security forces Germany is the lead country in the Coun- whom they are training. Another related Council Dynamics cil on Afghanistan. • issue is the need to reinvigorate reconcili- There is widespread support within the ation efforts between the government and Council for promoting good governance, the Taliban. human rights, reconciliation and devel- An additional key issue is how best opment in Afghanistan, issues key to to encourage international actors to stay UNAMA’s mandate. Council members engaged with rebuilding Afghanistan and to also broadly recognise that the meaningful ensure that both Afghanistan and its inter- long-term support of the international com- national partners fulfil commitments made munity will be necessary to help Afghani- through the Tokyo conference’s mutual stan overcome its economic, political and accountability framework. security challenges in the years to come. An ongoing important issue is the In light of the needs of Afghanistan, Paki- need to address the national and regional stan has expressed concern with potential

Iran

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments identical to the previous year’s resolution: it In September, the Council is due to receive On 7 June, the Council adopted resolution requests a midterm report to the Council by a quarterly briefing from Ambassador Nés- 2049, extending the mandate of the Panel of 9 December and a final report to the Coun- tor Osorio (Colombia), the chair of the Iran Experts (PoE) assisting the 1737 Commit- cil following the completion of its mandate Sanctions Committee (1737 Committee), on tee for thirteen months (until 9 July 2013). (after the report has first been discussed at its work since the last briefing (12 June). In the resolution the Council expressed its the Committee level). The Council does not usually take action intention to review the PoE’s mandate at In a 6 July letter to the President of the following these regular briefings. least one month before its expiry. The word- Council (S/2012/521), the Secretary-General ing of the mandate renewal and the report- reappointed the eight members of the PoE. ing requirement for the PoE is essentially (The experts each have discrete expertise,

UN DOCUMENTS Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2049 (7 June 2012) extended the mandate of the PoE that supports the 1737 Committee until 9 July 2013. S/RES/1929 (9 June 2010) imposed the fourth and most recent round of sanctions on Iran and established the PoE. S/RES/1737 (23 December 2006) was the first round of sanctions on Iran, which also established the Sanctions Committee. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6786 (12 June 2012) was the quarterly briefing by the chair of the 1737 Committee. Security Council Letters S/2012/521 (6 July 2012) was from the Secretary-General, reappointing the eight experts on the PoE. Secretary-General’s Report A/HRC/21/29 (2 July 2012) on “The Question of the Death Penalty”, raised several concerns about Iran. Other S/2012/395 (12 June 2012) was the final report of the PoE, submitted pursuant to resolution 1984 (2011).

20 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 Iran (con't) such as in “customs enforcement” and “mis- • remove all stockpiles of 20-percent- Human Rights-Related Developments sile technology.” All the P5 have a national on enriched uranium in a swap agreement; and The Secretary-General’s report on “The Question the PoE, the other three are from Germany, • shut down the Fordow uranium-enrich- of the Death Penalty,” which will be considered Japan and Nigeria.) ment facility. by the Human Right Council (HRC) in September, On 9 July, Ambassador Osorio, as chair Iran on the other hand says it seeks rec- raises several serious concerns about Iran. It high- of the 1737 Committee, and Salomé Zour- ognition of its “inalienable rights” to peace- lights the high number of executions and the new anti-narcotics law that came into force in 2011, abichvili (France)—the coordinator of the ful nuclear energy and the right to enrich expanding the application of the death penalty PoE—briefed interested member states on uranium. Tehran also seeks, inter alia, a to new drug-related offences. (The HRC’s special the activities of both the Committee and the lifting of sanctions against it. (Since 1 July, rapporteur on human rights in Iran has reported PoE. In remarks to the press afterwards, Oso- an EU oil ban against Iran has been in that there were 670 executions in Iran in 2011, of rio said that it had been important to reach effect and— together with ever-tightening which 81 percent were of drug offenders, includ- ing people believed to be under 18 at the time the out to the membership at large, as members’ US sanctions—the current restrictions are offence was committed.) The report acknowl- strong support made the Committee’s work the toughest that have ever been in place edges that the new Islamic Penal Code, adopted more effective and allowed the wider mem- against Iran. In August, Standard Chartered by the parliament in January, states that juveniles bership to better understand the provisions Bank, which has its headquarters in Lon- below 18 years of age will not be sentenced to set out in Council resolutions. don, agreed to pay a $340 million fine to death if the court decides that the offender did not have adequate mental maturity and ability to Additionally, Osorio said that while he New York State regulators following allega- reason. The report notes, however, that despite was encouraged that some states had sub- tions that the bank had broken US sanctions this limitation, the new code has retained the mitted national implementation reports on Iran. Several other European financial death penalty in almost all instances that were concerning sanctions on Iran (as required institutions are also reportedly being inves- punishable under the previous measure and has by Council resolutions), more needed tigated by US authorities for possible illicit expanded its scope in some cases. to be done to improve the reporting rate. transactions with Iran.) (For example, the Committee had received Following speculation this year as to Key Issues reports from only 80 member states under whether Israel was considering unilateral The key issue for Council members is finding the most recent round of sanctions on Iran, strikes against Iran, President Shimon Peres a diplomatic solution to the present impasse resolution 1929.) said in a 16 August television interview in vis-à-vis Iran’s nuclear programme. In political developments, discussions Israel that the country could not success- Related issues for the Council are Iran’s with Iran about its nuclear programme have fully undertake such a mission alone. The inconsistent cooperation with the IAEA and been downgraded to the technical level since interview was reportedly broadcast hours ensuring that Iran fulfils its responsibilities the high-level talks in Moscow on 18-19 June after Defence Minister Ehud Barak told the as a non-nuclear-weapon state under the between the P5+1 (the permanent members Knesset that the risks of dealing with Iran Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). and Germany) and Iran ended without a today would be smaller and less costly than A further issue for the Council, particu- breakthrough. Iranian and EU officials met dealing with a nuclear Iran further down larly given that two elected members border in Istanbul on 3 July and on 24 July. the track. While the presidential office is Iran (Azerbaijan and Pakistan), is ensuring On 2 August, EU High Representative largely ceremonial, Peres’ remarks were that tensions in the region do not escalate for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Cath- interpreted as criticism of the conservative to the point where coercive measures are erine Ashton, who leads the P5+1 delegation, government’s rhetoric concerning a strike employed. spoke for the first time since the Moscow against Iran. talks with her counterpart, Saeed Jalili, Sec- On 24 August, talks between the Inter- Options retary of Iran’s Supreme National Security national Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Due to the dynamics among its permanent Council. In a statement following the tele- Iran in Vienna did not result in an agreement members, it is unlikely that the Council itself phone conversation, Ashton said that she concerning access to Iran’s Parchin mili- will take steps aimed at further pressuring impressed on Iran the need to address the tary site, nor did the two sides set another Tehran to reach a negotiated settlement. issues raised “in order to build confidence,” meeting date. Access to the site has been an At the Committee level, however, mem- and that the two agreed to talk again by the ongoing priority for the IAEA as it believes bers could follow up on the 11 recommen- end of August. Iran may have conducted tests there rele- dations in the PoE’s final report, including Since negotiations recommenced this vant to the development of nuclear weapons the designation of an Iranian cargo airline year in April in Istanbul, it seems the gap capability. and Iran’s SAD Import-Export Company for that separates the two sides in terms of their In late August, Secretary-General Ban engaging in prohibited arms exports activity demands has not narrowed substantially. Ki-moon attended the Non-Aligned Move- with Iran. The P5+1’s request in the negotiations has ment (NAM) summit in Tehran after much Another recommendation by the PoE that essentially been three-fold, namely that Iran debate about his attendance. (Iran assumed the Committee could act upon is addressing should: the rotating presidency of the grouping for the discrepancies between the lists of indi- • halt all 20 percent uranium enrichment; three years during the summit.) viduals originally designated under Council

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 21 Iran (con't) resolutions (such as the leadership of the being imposed outside UN auspices by the they emphasise that sanctions are important Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and US and EU, as part of a dual-track approach in hastening a negotiated solution. those who currently hold those positions to both apply pressure and engage diplomati- Several Council members emphasise the identified in the designations. cally, are not welcomed by some members. need for Iran to abide by earlier resolutions Furthermore, the Committee could work China in particular has publicly voiced con- and for it to cooperate with the IAEA. Ensur- with the Secretariat to look into how the PoE cerns at recently introduced US sanctions ing effective implementation of existing mea- could cooperate with other groups of experts that target foreign banks—including Chinese sures against Iran is likely to be a primary assisting other sanctions committees. banks—that deal with blacklisted Iranian focus. institutions. Russia, too, has warned of the The US is the lead in the Council on Iran. • Council and Wider Dynamics “extraterritorial effect” of such sanctions. Sev- Despite the fact that the P5+1 are repre- eral members, including China, consistently sented as one group in the ongoing talks with reiterate that sanctions ought not to be an Tehran, deep divisions exist among them on end in themselves. Although others—includ- Iran. The increasingly stringent sanctions ing EU members—agree with that principle,

Children and Armed Conflict

Expected Council Action been listed in the annexes of the Secretary- encouraged the Council to put increas- In September the Council is expected to hold General’s annual reports on children and ing pressure on persistent perpetrators and an open debate on children and armed con- armed conflict for more than five years for to consider applying targeted sanctions, flict. (Germany, the Council president for committing grave violations against children, expanding designation criteria for grave vio- September, is also the chair of the Working parties otherwise known as persistent perpe- lations against children to all relevant Secu- Group on Children and Armed Conflict.) trators. The briefers at the “Arria formula” rity Council sanctions committees and study- The new Special Representative for Children meeting were the then Special Representa- ing ways of imposing sanctions when there and Armed Conflict, Leila Zerrougui, and tive for Children and Armed Conflict, Rad- is no existing sanctions committee. He also Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping hika Coomaraswamy, Prof. Cecile Aptel from suggested that greater cooperation between Operations Hervé Ladsous are expected to Tufts University and Dr. Bijaya Sainju from the Working Group and national and interna- brief. It is also possible that a representative Partnerships to Protect Children in Armed tional courts may help address the problem from civil society may speak. Conflict (PPCC), an NGO network from of persistent perpetrators. The debate is expected to focus on the Nepal. The Working Group has been deadlocked Secretary-General’s recent report on children The 11th Secretary-General’s report on on the conclusions for the report on chil- and armed conflict (S/2012/261) with par- children and armed conflict for the first time dren and armed conflict in Sudan since ticular attention being given to the issue of listed parties for attacks on schools and hos- the beginning of 2012. While the Working accountability and persistent perpetrators of pitals in its annexes in accordance with reso- Group was able to come to an agreement violations against children in armed conflict. lution 1998 adopted on 12 July 2011. It also on conclusions for South Sudan relatively Germany is planning to circulate a back- removed three parties from and added five easily, this was not the case for the Sudan ground note ahead of the debate. A presiden- new parties to its annexes. Among the groups conclusions. The main problem appears tial statement is a likely outcome. listed in the two annexes are nine government to be a lack of consensus on the issue of (For a more detailed analysis of the Coun- security forces (Afghanistan, Chad, Demo- humanitarian access. At press time, discus- cil’s recent work on protection of children cratic Republic of Congo, Myanmar, Somalia, sions were continuing but no agreement had both thematically and in country-specific South Sudan, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) and been reached. In the meantime, the Working situations, please refer to our 27 August 42 non-state armed groups. (Secretary-Gen- Group has begun negotiating the conclu- Cross-Cutting Report on Children and Armed eral’s reports contain two annexes: Annex I sions for Colombia. Conflict.) lists armed conflict situations that are on the Council’s agenda while Annex II consists of Key Issues Key Recent Developments armed conflict situations not on the Coun- The key issue for the Council is how to On 9 July, France and Germany co-chaired cil’s agenda but considered situations of con- address accountability, particularly in rela- an “Arria formula” meeting to discuss ways cern for children.) tion to persistent perpetrators. of dealing with parties to conflicts that have In the report, the Secretary-General A related issue is whether there is a need

UN DOCUMENTS Security Council Resolutions S/RES/1998 (12 July 2011) was the children and armed conflict resolution that expanded the trigger for inclusion in the Secretary-General’s annexes to include attacks against schools and hospitals. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2010/10 (16 June 2010) Secretary-General’s Reports on Children and Armed Conflict S/2012/365 (25 May 2012) was on the Lord’s Resistance Army. S/2012/261 (26 April 2012) was the 2012 annual report. S/2012/171 (21 March 2012) was on Colombia. Security Council Meeting Record S/ PV.6581 and Res. 1 (12 July 2011) Conclusions of the Security Council Working Group S/AC.51/2011/6 (3 October 2011) was on Iraq. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict Leila Zerrougui (Algeria) Chair of the Working Group on Children and Armed ConflictAmbassador Peter Wittig (Germany)

22 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 Children and Armed Conflict (con't) to review the tools currently used to put pres- the adoption of the corresponding conclu- sure on the groups on the annexes to the sions by the Working Group have been con- Secretary-General’s reports. siderably slowed down by the lack of consen- A further issue is ensuring that more prog- sus over the Sudan conclusions. ress is made on adopting action plans con- A number of the issues raised during the cerning killing and maiming, sexual violence last debate, including “mandate creep” and and attacks on schools and hospitals. the definition of “situations of concern” are A longer-term issue is maintaining likely to come up again. Given the current momentum on the progress in the work of dynamics, most members do not have an the Working Group, in particular the adop- appetite for any new decisions on this issue tion of its conclusions. and do not appear to be looking for more than a reiteration of points made in previ- Options ous Council decisions and a request for the The most likely option is a presidential state- next report. ment addressing the issue of persistent per- There does, however, seem to be a degree petrators, reinforcing the need for account- of consensus that more needs to be done to ability and requesting a report in 12 months. put pressure on persistent perpetrators. Sev- As a follow-up to the debate, the Council’s eral Council members believe that the first options include: step could be to ensure that all relevant sanc- • holding a meeting in the near future on tions regimes include violations of applica- the issue of persistent perpetrators; ble international law involving children and • adding violations against children as cri- armed conflict as grounds for designation teria for imposition of sanctions to relevant for targeted measures. But there is likely sanctions regimes; to be disagreement over the idea of impos- • ensuring relevant sanctions committees ing sanctions on parties in Annex II, that designate violators against children as targets is, on actors in situations that are not on for sanctions; the Council’s agenda. Most members also • considering ways of increasing interac- do not seem comfortable with the idea of tion on the issue of children in armed con- a thematic sanctions regime or committee. flict between the Council, the Secretariat, The idea of involving the ICC and national national courts and the International Crimi- courts may also meet with resistance from nal Court (ICC); some members although no clear positions • requesting the Secretary-General to have emerged as yet. • encourage governments to enforce national legislation to ensure there is no impunity for those accused of perpetrating violations against children; and • requesting the Working Group to include a section with recommendations concerning persistent perpetrators in any conclusions it adopts.

Council Dynamics Germany, which has been chair of the Work- ing Group since January 2011, has worked with great efficiency, leading to the adop- tion of a record number of conclusions in the first half of 2011. However, the difficult negotiations leading to resolution 1998 were a warning sign of a more challenging time ahead for the children in armed conflict agenda. Over the last year, efforts made to close the time gap between the publication of the Secretary-General’s country-specific reports on children and armed conflict and

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 23 Notable Dates for September Security Council Report Staff Bruno Stagno Executive Director REPORT DUE REPORTS FOR CONSIDERATION IN SEPTEMBER* REQUESTING DOCUMENT Joanna Weschler Deputy Executive Director & 1 September. . . . . SG report on Guinea-Bissau...... S/RES/2048 Director of Research

Amanda Roberts 1 September. . . . . SG report on UNMIL (Liberia)...... S/RES/2008 Coordinating Editor & Senior Research Analyst

1 September. . . . . SG report on UNIPSIL (Sierra Leone)...... S/RES/2005 Shamala Kandiah Thompson What’s in Blue Editor & 14 September. . . . .SG report on UNAMA (Afghanistan)...... S/RES/2041 Senior Research Analyst Astrid Forberg Ryan mid-September. . . .SG report UNSMIL (Libya) ...... S/RES/2040 Research Analyst & Development Officer late-September. . . .SG report on Mali and Integrated Sahel Strategy ...... S/RES/2056 Lansana Gberie Research Analyst

Zeeshan Hashmi MANDATES EXPIRE RELEVANT DOCUMENT Research Analyst 15 September ��������������� UNIPSIL (Sierra Leone)...... S/RES/2005 Paul Romita Research Analyst 30 September ������������� UNMIL (Liberia)...... S/RES/2008 Eran Sthoeger Research Analyst

OTHER IMPORTANT DATES Nicholas Walbridge Research Analyst 19 September ��������������� The Council is expected to hold an open debate on Children and Armed Conflict. Robbin VanNewkirk 25 September ��������������� The General Assembly general debate will open. Publications Coordinator Dahlia Morched 26 September ������������� The Council is expected to hold a high-level meeting on peace and security in the Middle East. Research Assistant

26 September ������������� A high-level summit on Somalia is planned on the margins of the General Assembly. Laura Coquard-Patry Junior Research Assistant

26 September ������������� The Secretary-General will host a high-level meeting on developments in the Sahel, James Reed Ball III including Mali, on the margins of the General Assembly. Junior Research Assistant Maritza Tenerelli Administrative Assistant

Tim Caughley *For regular updates on the reporting cycles please refer to http://www.un.org/Docs/sc/SC-RMcycles.pdf Research Consultant

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24 securitycouncilreport.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast September 2012