The Search for Stability in Libya

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The Search for Stability in Libya IAI Research Studies Established in June 2014, New-Med is a research network of Mediterranean 1 IAI Research Studies are monographs written by one or experts and policy analysts with a special interest in the complex social, IAI Research Studies more authors (IAI or external experts) on key global issues, T 1. Andrea Dessì, Ettore Greco (edited by), The Search for Stability in Libya. political, cultural and security-related dynamics that are unfolding in the HE mainly linked to international politics and international OSCE’s Role between Internal Obstacles and External Challenges, 2018 Mediterranean region. The network is developed by IAI, in cooperation with S EARCH relations. The aim is to promote greater and more up to date the OSCE Secretariat in Vienna, the Compagnia di San Paolo of Turin, the knowledge of emerging issues and trends and help prompt Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, and the FOR public debate. German Marshall Fund (GMF) of the United States. At the core of the S New-Med activities stands the need to rethink the role of multilateral, regional TABILITY IAI is a private, independent non-profit think tank, founded and sub-regional organisations, to make them better equipped to respond to in 1965 on the initiative of Altiero Spinelli. IAI seeks to fast-changing local and global conditions and to address the pressing demands IN L promote awareness of international politics and to contribute coming from Mediterranean societies all around the basin. IBYA to the advancement of European integration and multilateral . OSCE’ cooperation. Its focus embraces topics of strategic relevance This volume examines the goals and prospects of the OSCE’s growing such as European integration, security and defence, engagement in the Mediterranean region and, more specifically, with the S international economics and global governance, energy, OSCE’s six Mediterranean Partners for Cooperation (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, R OLE climate and Italian foreign policy; as well as the dynamics of Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia). The volume’s four chapters focus on the OSCE’s potential role in international efforts to stabilize Libya, a country which has BETWEEN cooperation and conflict in key geographical regions such as been ravaged by a prolonged and destructive civil war, becoming the epicentre the Mediterranean and Middle East, Asia, Eurasia, Africa and the Americas. of conflict dynamics with far-reaching implications for both neighbouring I countries and Europe. Each chapter addresses a particular theme, or level of NTERNAL analysis, tied to the current conflict in Libya. Beginning with an introductory chapter outlining the OSCE’s growing engagements in the Mediterranean O region and Libya’s abortive requests to joint the OSCE Mediterranean BSTACLES Partnership, subsequent chapters delve into the minute details of the major internal and external obstacles to peace-building and stabilization in Libya, AND addressing the role of regional, European and international actors involved in E the country. A final chapter delivers a Russian viewpoint of these themes and XTERNAL traces Moscow’s evolving policy and interests in Libya while addressing the broader role of the OSCE in the Mediterranean. C HALLENGES SEARCH FOR STABILITY IN LIBYA Book cover: Benghazi, 14 April 2012. OSCE’s Role between Internal Obstacles edited by Andrea Dessì and Ettore Greco Dessì and Ettore Andrea edited by and External Challenges edited by Andrea Dessì and Ettore Greco 9788833650609_112_LM_3 SEGUICI SUI SOCIAL NETWORK 11.00 EURO IAI Research Studies THE SEARCH FOR StaBILITY IN LIBYA OSCE’s Role between Internal Obstacles and External Challenges edited by Andrea Dessì and Ettore Greco in collaboration with Edizioni Nuova Cultura This edited volume was written with the financial support of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation (contribution awarded under Article 2 Law No. 948/82). The opinions expressed and arguments employed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, the OSCE, its participating States or the institutional _________________________partners of the New-Med Research Network. Series Editor Lorenzo Kamel First published 2018 by Edizioni Nuova Cultura www.iai.itFor Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) Via Angelo Brunetti 9 - I-00186 Roma Copyright © 2018 Edizioni Nuova Cultura - Roma ISBN: 9788833650609 Cover design: Luca Mozzicarelli. Cover photo: Thomas Koch/Shutterstock Graphic Composition: by Luca Mozzicarelli The unauthorized reproduction of this book, even partial, carried out by any means, including photocopying, even for internal or didactic use, is prohibited by copyright. Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................ ..................................................................................................................... 9 List of ContributorsEttore Greco and Nicolò Russo Perez ........................................................ 7 List of Abbreviations Foreword, by 11 Andrea Dessì .................................................... 1. The OSCE Mediterranean Partnership, Libya and the MENA Crisis: ............ Potential, Limits and Prospects, by 15 1.1.1 The OSCE Mediterranean Partnership for Cooperation ....................... 1.1 The OSCE area and outlaying regions: An evolving relationship 17 ...... 19 .............................................. 1.2 Post-2011 OSCE Mediterranean engagements and the crisis in Libya 27 ...... 1.3 A Helsinki-like process for the Mediterranean? 35 1.4 Fostering the OSCE’s Mediterranean role and the question of Libya 41 Mohamed Eljarh ..................................................... 2. The Libyan Crisis: Internal Barriers to Conflict Resolution and the Role ............................................................................. 48 of Multilateral Cooperation, by 47 2.1.1 Libya’s hastened return to elections ............................................................ 2.1 The path to failed state in Libya ............................................ 51 2.2.1 Foreign meddling in Libya ................................................................................ 2.2 The Skhirat Agreement: key actors and failures 54 ........................ 57 2.3.1 Internal barriers .................................................................................................. 2.3 Barriers to the implementation of the Skhirat Agreement 58 2.3.2 External barriers ................................................................................................. 59 ......................................................................................................................... 61 2.4 Conclusion 64 Wolfgang Mühlberger ........................................................ 3. External Actors in Libya: International Organizations at Odds with Global .................. and Regional Players, by 67 .... 3.1 Fragmented statehood: Libya’s brittle structures torn apart 67 3.2.1 International and regional organizations: the fragmentation 3.2 Libya divided: external players between diplomacy and military logic 70 of diplomacy ........................................................................................................... 3.2.2 Immediate Arab neighbours: positions from non-intervention 72 to proxy warfare .................................................................................................. 75 TABLE OF CONTENTS 3.2.3 The wider Middle East: clashing geopolitical ambitions ...................... 3.2.4 European involvement: shared vision, different approaches ............. 77 3.2.5 International and global players: potential post-Cold War frictions 79 over Libya ................................................................................................................ .................... 81 ......................................................................................................................... 3.3 Negotiating peace: the UN-led process and ancillary tracks 83 3.4 Conclusion 87 4. Ekaterina Stepanova .................................................. 89 Russia’s Approach to the Conflict in Libya, the East-West Dimension ....................................................................... and the Role of the OSCE, by 4.1.1 Background ............................................................................................................ 4.1 Russia’s policy on the Libyan crisis 90 4.1.2 Russia and Haftar: security and counterterrorism ............................... 94 90 4.1.3 From counterterrorism to peacemaking: Russia as a facilitator of intra-Libyan dialogue? .................................................................................. 98 ....... 4.2.1 The East-West dimension .............................................................................. 4.2 Russia and multilateral cooperation on Libya: a role for the OSCE? 103 4.2.2 The North-South/Mediterranean dimension .......................................... 104 ......................................... 106 4.3 In lieu of conclusion: Russia, the OSCE and Libya 108 6 List of Contributors Andrea Dessì is Research Fellow in the Mediterranean and Middle East Programme at the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI). He is PhD Candi- date, International Relations, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). Mohamed Eljarh is
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