Arab Uprisings and Armed Forces: Between Openness and Resistance
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Omar-Ashour-English.Pdf
CENTER ON DEMOCRACY, DEVELOPMENT, AND THE RULE OF LAW STANFORD UNIVERSITY BROOKINGS DOHA CENTER - STANFORD PROJECT ON ARAB TRANSITIONS PAPER SERIES Number 3, November 2012 FROM BAD COP TO GOOD COP: THE CHALLENGE OF SECURITY SECTOR REFORM IN EGYPT OMAR ASHOUR PROGRAM ON ARAB REFORM AND DEMOCRACY, CDDRL FROM BAD COP TO GOOD COP: THE CHALLENGE OF SECURITY SECTOR REFORM IN EGYPT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY gence within the police force of a cadre of reform- ist officers is also encouraging and may help shift Successful democratic transitions hinge on the the balance of power within the Ministry of Interi- establishment of effective civilian control of the or. These officers have established reformist orga- armed forces and internal security institutions. The nizations, such as the General Coalition of Police transformation of these institutions from instru- Officers and Officers But Honorable, and begun to ments of brutal repression and regime protection push for SSR themselves. The prospects for imple- to professional, regulated, national services – secu- menting these civil society and internal initiatives, rity sector reform (SSR) – is at the very center of however, remain uncertain; they focus on admira- this effort. In Egypt, as in other transitioning Arab ble ends but are less clear on the means of imple- states and prior cases of democratization, SSR is mentation. They also have to reckon with strong an acutely political process affected by an array of elements within the Ministry of Interior – “al-Ad- different actors and dynamics. In a contested and ly’s men” (in reference to Mubarak’s longstanding unstable post-revolutionary political sphere, the minister) – who remain firmly opposed to reform. -
Hosni Mubarak and the Future of Democracy in Egypt
Hosni Mubarak and the Future of Democracy in Egypt Hosni Mubarak and the Future of Democracy in Egypt Alaa Al-Din Arafat HOSNI MUBARAK AND THE FUTURE OF DEMOCRACY IN EGYPT Copyright © Alaa Al-Din Arafat, 2009. All rights reserved. First published in hardcover as The Mubarak Leadership and Future of Democracy in Egypt in 2009 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN® in the United States—a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above compa- nies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-0-230-33813-5 ISBN 978-1-137-06753-1 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9781137067531 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data ‘Arafat, ‘Ala’ al-Din. Hosni Mubarak and the future of democracy in Egypt / Alaa Al-Din Arafat. p. cm. Pbk. ed. of: The Mubarak leadership and future of democracy in Egypt. New York : Palgrave Macmillan, 2009. With a new preface. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978–0–230–33813–5 (alk. paper) 1. Mubarak, Muhammad Husni, 1928– 2. Mubarak, Gamal. 3. Egypt—Politics and government—1981– 4. Egypt—Politics and government—1970–1981. 5. Hizb al-Watani al-Dimuqrati (Egypt)— History. 6. Political leadership—Egypt—History. -
EGYPT-PROTESTS-DOWNFALL.Pdf
EGYPT EGYPT’S REVOLUTION 2.0 SPECIAL REPORT 1 EGYPT REVOLUTION 2.0 The first democratically elected president in Egypt began his last day at work as a free man and ended it as a prisoner of his own Republican Guard. Here’s how it happened BY YASMINE SALEH AND PAUL TAYLOR CAIRO, July 5, 2013 or Egypt’s military chiefs, the final spur to rebellion came on June 26. FThat day top generals met Mohamed Mursi, the country’s first democratically elected president, and spoke bluntly, telling the Islamist leader what he should say in a major speech he planned as protests against him intensified around the country. “We told him it has to be short, respond to opposition demands to form a coalition government, amend the constitution and set a timeframe for the two actions,” an of- ficer present in the room told Reuters. “Yet he came out with a very long speech that said nothing. That is when we knew he had no intention of fixing the situation, and we had to prepare for Plan B.” The officer added: “We had prepared for NO MURSI: Anti-Mursi protesters in Tahrir Square on July 3 (front page), the day Egypt’s armed forces all scenarios, from street violence to mass removed the president and suspended the constitution. REUTERS/ SUHAIB SALEM; Mursi (above), just clashes, and had troops ready to handle before a speech at Cairo University on June 30 last year, the day he formally took charge of Egypt. both situations.” Like other serving officers REUTERS/STRINGER interviewed for this report, the person re- quested anonymity because of the sensitiv- ity of the situation. -
Introduction
1 Introduction Dennis Blair The second volume of Military Engagement relates the stories of how democratic civil-military relations developed in five world regions and fourteen individual countries. This introduction pro- vides some background on those who authored these stories and describes the patterns observed and the lessons that can be drawn from them. The Authors The regional summaries were written by a team of coauthors, almost all having both practical experience in armed forces or defense ministries of their countries and subsequent careers with security think tanks. They also contributed ideas and criticisms of the analysis and recommendations in the companion volume. Juan Emilio Cheyre, while chief of staff of the Chilean army, took the final steps to bring his service out of the Pinochet era. Matthew Rhodes is a professor at the Marshall Center in Germany, an insti- tution at the center of military-military relations among countries around the world. Istvan Gyarmati, who participated in the early brainstorming sessions for the handbook, was deputy defense minister of Hungary during the Hungarian armed forces’ transi- tion from its Warsaw Pact organization to meet NATO standards. Muthiah Alagappa, a general in the Malaysian Army, has become the foremost scholar of Asian civil-military relations subsequent to 1 01-2478-0 ch1.indd 1 5/16/13 6:03 PM 2 Dennis Blair his retirement. Tannous Mouawad served as Lebanon’s military attaché to the United States and the chief of Lebanon’s military intelligence service. Martin Rupiya was an officer in the Zimbabwean National Army and now heads a security affairs think tank in South Africa Each of the regional coauthors recruited additional authors to write the indi- vidual case studies; two of them wrote a case study as well. -
Sudan a Country Study.Pdf
A Country Study: Sudan An Nilain Mosque, at the site of the confluence of the Blue Nile and White Nile in Khartoum Federal Research Division Library of Congress Edited by Helen Chapin Metz Research Completed June 1991 Table of Contents Foreword Acknowledgements Preface Country Profile Country Geography Society Economy Transportation Government and Politics National Security Introduction Chapter 1 - Historical Setting (Thomas Ofcansky) Early History Cush Meroe Christian Nubia The Coming of Islam The Arabs The Decline of Christian Nubia The Rule of the Kashif The Funj The Fur The Turkiyah, 1821-85 The Mahdiyah, 1884-98 The Khalifa Reconquest of Sudan The Anglo-Egyptian Condominium, 1899-1955 Britain's Southern Policy Rise of Sudanese Nationalism The Road to Independence The South and the Unity of Sudan Independent Sudan The Politics of Independence The Abbud Military Government, 1958-64 Return to Civilian Rule, 1964-69 The Nimeiri Era, 1969-85 Revolutionary Command Council The Southern Problem Political Developments National Reconciliation The Transitional Military Council Sadiq Al Mahdi and Coalition Governments Chapter 2 - The Society and its Environment (Robert O. Collins) Physical Setting Geographical Regions Soils Hydrology Climate Population Ethnicity Language Ethnic Groups The Muslim Peoples Non-Muslim Peoples Migration Regionalism and Ethnicity The Social Order Northern Arabized Communities Southern Communities Urban and National Elites Women and the Family Religious -
How Can We Explain the Arab Spring? by Satoshi Ikeuchi Author Satoshi Ikeuchi
SPECIAL ANALYSIS How Can We Explain theArab Spring? By Satoshi Ikeuchi Author Satoshi Ikeuchi The Intellectual Challenge of the Arab Spring opposition parties and civil society movements due to severe restrictions imposed on them; the skillful tactics of the rulers, The Arab Spring shook the social consciousness, values and alternating between oppression and co-optation; the firm grip that political regimes of the Arab countries and vastly altered their hopes those regimes had over the massive and multifaceted military and for the future. At the same time, the existing framework for security forces; the economic rent pouring in to the oil-producing understanding the Arab world received a serious jolt. Experts on countries that made it possible to govern without regard to public Arab politics are now going through a period of fundamental soul- opinion; the existence of the United States and other outside searching. As a scholar of Arab politics, the author’s aim is to supporters of these regimes; the ability of the regimes to exploit provide a new conceptual framework that will help explain the existing regional and sectarian conflicts to claim and justify the present and anticipate the future, albeit broadly. need for a police state, effectively stultifying dissent — the list Does the term Arab Spring make sense in the first place? What goes on. caused the chain of rapid changes in society? What were the The views of political scientists in the Arab world had been a little immediate outcomes in those countries? How did the individual Arab more nuanced. They made a more detailed analysis of the regimes respond to widespread social protest? And what were the undemocratic governance of the Arab regimes, subjected them to reasons for the different responses? What were the factors that led political and ethical criticism and value judgments, and argued for to different outcomes in individual countries? Where did the critical the indispensability and inevitability of change. -
Egypt Presidential Election Observation Report
EGYPT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OBSERVATION REPORT JULY 2014 This publication was produced by Democracy International, Inc., for the United States Agency for International Development through Cooperative Agreement No. 3263-A- 13-00002. Photographs in this report were taken by DI while conducting the mission. Democracy International, Inc. 7600 Wisconsin Avenue, Suite 1010 Bethesda, MD 20814 Tel: +1.301.961.1660 www.democracyinternational.com EGYPT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OBSERVATION REPORT July 2014 Disclaimer This publication is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of Democracy International, Inc. and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. CONTENTS CONTENTS ................................................................ 4 MAP OF EGYPT .......................................................... I ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................. II DELEGATION MEMBERS ......................................... V ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ....................... X EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.............................................. 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................ 6 ABOUT DI .......................................................... 6 ABOUT THE MISSION ....................................... 7 METHODOLOGY .............................................. 8 BACKGROUND ........................................................ 10 TUMULT -
Europe, Not the United States, Pays the Price of Failure in Syria Europe
Jadal ! ! ! October 2015 Europe, not the United States, pays the price of failure in Syria Bassma Kodmani* Russian President Putin has decided that Syria is part of Russia’s near abroad, no less than Ukraine it seems, a territory where some vital national interests are at stake. He has predicted the fecklessness of Western powers well. Whether he is deploying his arsenal in Syria to fight Daesh or to bolster Assad, by moving massive military presence into Syria he has made himself the one player that counts and has put himself in a position to call the shots. He does not have a strategy to end the conflict. But he has one that he thinks will guarantee Russia’s influence in this pivotal country while the West !has no strategy to confront him. Europeans have been waiting for American leadership on Syria for the last four years. Some were ready to move against Assad after he used chemical weapons against civilians. The French were most committed to Obama’s red line, but Kerry and Lavrov found a way out with the agreement on Assad’s chemical arsenal, which was welcomed by all as a relief. The fact that Assad was saved and his ability to continue striking remained intact was deemed regrettable, but European countries thought they could live with the problem. Daesh was a minor concern back then which a few brave fighters from the Free Syrian Army could deal with. But this inaction had consequences, which are now felt acutely across Europe. ! The debate in Europe has since revolved around all the “good reasons” for keeping Assad in place and containing the conflict. -
The Adaptive Transformation of Yemen?S Republican Guard
The Adaptive Transformation of Yemen's Republican Guard By Lucas Winter Journal Article | Mar 7 2017 - 9:45pm The Adaptive Transformation of Yemen’s Republican Guard Lucas Winter In the summer of 1978, Colonel Ali Abdullah Saleh became president of the Yemeni Arab Republic (YAR) or North Yemen. Like his short-lived predecessor Ahmad al-Ghashmi, Saleh had been a tank unit commander in the YAR military before ascending the ranks.[1] Like al-Ghashmi, Saleh belonged to a tribe with limited national political influence but a strong presence in the country’s military.[2] Three months into Saleh’s presidency, conspirators allied with communists from the Popular Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY), or South Yemen, staged a coup and briefly seized key government installations in the capital Sana’a. The 1st Armored Brigade, North Yemen’s main tank unit at the time, was deployed to quell the insurrection. The 1st Armored Brigade subsequently expanded to become the 1st Armored Division. Commanded by Saleh’s kinsman Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar, it became North Yemen’s premiere military unit and took control of vital installations in the capital. The division played a decisive role in securing victory for Saleh and his allies in Yemen’s 1994 Civil War. Although the 1st Armored Division functioned as President Saleh’s Praetorian Guard, his personal safety was in the hands of the Yemeni Republican Guard (YRG), a small force created with Egyptian support in the early days of the republic.[3] YRG headquarters were in “Base 48,” located on the capital’s southern outskirts abutting the territories of Saleh’s Sanhan tribe. -
Syrian Foreign Policy and the United States: from Bush to Obama
SYRIAN FOREIGN POLICY AND THE UNITED STATES: FROM BUSH TO OBAMA By Raymond Hinnebusch, Marwan Kabalan, Bassma Kodmani and David Lesch St Andrews papers on Contemporary Syria, 2010 1 2 Syrian Foreign Policy Foreword Raymond Hinnebusch These four analyses look at Syrian foreign policy, and particularly the ups and downs in Syria’s relationship with the US since Bashar al-Asad and George W. Bush nearly simultaneously came to power. One of the most striking and puzzling aspects of this relation is why a Syrian leader keen to improve relations with the West was soon the object of a concerted attempt to demonize and isolate him. Arguably this had more to do with the American politics than with Syria and had Kerry won the 2000 US election US-Syrian relations would almost certainly have taken a much different tangent and the history of the Middle East would have turned out very differently. The focus of the analyses is however on what makes Syria tick and how this explains its strategies in dealing with the hostile, aggressive and powerful US under Bush. The analysis by Hinnebusch looks particularly at the continuities from the Hafiz period, showing how Syria was in the late nineties on course for a peace settlement with Israel under US auspices. The failure of the peace negotiations set entrain a series of moves and countermoves that contributed to a crisis in Syrian- US relations, with Iraq and Lebanon the foci of their clashing agendas. The article finishes with a look at the fresh start between the two states at the beginning of the Obama administration. -
Briefing April 2011
WAR, TERROR & POLITICAL VIOLENCE WTPV BRIEFING APRIL 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS Transnational terrorism 2 Profile: Peru 3 Worldwide political violence 4 Africa Americas Asia Europe Middle East and North Africa Rebels ride past a fuel-storage facility attacked during clashes with government forces near Sedra, eastern Libya AIRSTRIKES HIT LIBYA AS MIDDLE EAST UNREST CONTINUES The US, UK and France began airstrikes Ali Abdullah Saleh declared a state of and cruise missile attacks against Libyan emergency, suggesting that the government air-defence installations and ground forces had lost patience with mediation efforts. on 19 March. Explosions were reported However, his position weakened on 21 in the capital Tripoli on 23 March as the March with the defection of three senior coalition continued enforcing a no-fly zone generals, who declared support for the over eastern Libya. The strikes followed a opposition and reportedly positioned units in UN Security Council resolution authorising central Sanaa to protect protesters. Looting the use of ‘all necessary measures’ to and arson were reported in the southern For more information about Hiscox or protect Libyan civilians from pro-regime city of Aden on 22 March, while there were Control Risks, please contact: forces. Uncertainty persists over the exact clashes in Mukulla on 21 March. purpose of the military engagement; Stephen Ashwell proponents of intervention have pointed to Bahrain’s government on 15 March Tel: 020 7448 6725 the humanitarian need for such measures, imposed a state of emergency and on 16 1 Great St Helen’s, London EC3A 6HX though there are also some indications March forcibly removed demonstrators from [email protected] that regime change is the ultimate goal. -
The Role of Armed Forces in the Arab Uprisings
The Role of Armed Forces in the Arab Uprisings 9 Derek Lutterbeck I. Introduction1 As popular uprisings, demanding greater political freedoms and in several countries even regime change, swept across much of the Arab world, a crucial role has been played by the armed forces of these countries in confronting the pro-reform movements. Practically all Arab countries can be described as military-based regimes, where the armed forces have been at the core of the political system, even though the status and role of the military has varied significantly from one country to the next. Moreover, powerful military forces, as well as a robust security apparatus more generally, have been seen by many, as one, if not the main, obstacle to political reform and democratization in the region.2 However, military forces have responded quite differently across the region to pro-democracy movements, ranging from openness to protest movements, to internal fracturing, to firm support for the regime in power. These different responses, in turn, have been crucial in determining the outcome of the popular uprisings, and whether authoritarian leaders were eventually overthrown. The aim of this paper is to discuss the role the armed forces have played in six Middle Eastern countries, which have 1 A more extensive study on this topic has been published as Lutterbeck, Derek, 2011: Arab Uprisings and Armed forces: between openness and resistance. DCAF SSR Paper 2. 2 See, e.g., Cook, Steven A., 2007: Ruling But Not Governing. The Military and Political Development in Egypt, Algeria and Turkey (Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press, 2007); Bellin, Eva, 2004: “The Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East.