EGYPT

EGYPT’S REVOLUTION 2.0

SPECIAL REPORT 1 EGYPT REVOLUTION 2.0

The first democratically elected president in Egypt began his last day at work as a free man and ended it as a prisoner of his own Republican Guard. Here’s how it happened BY YASMINE SALEH AND PAUL TAYLOR , July 5, 2013

or Egypt’s military chiefs, the final spur to rebellion came on June 26. FThat day top generals met Mohamed Mursi, the country’s first democratically elected president, and spoke bluntly, telling the Islamist leader what he should say in a major speech he planned as protests against him intensified around the country. “We told him it has to be short, respond to opposition demands to form a coalition government, amend the constitution and set a timeframe for the two actions,” an of- ficer present in the room told Reuters. “Yet he came out with a very long speech that said nothing. That is when we knew he had no intention of fixing the situation, and we had to prepare for Plan B.” The officer added: “We had prepared for NO MURSI: Anti-Mursi protesters in Tahrir Square on July 3 (front page), the day Egypt’s armed forces all scenarios, from street violence to mass removed the president and suspended the constitution. REUTERS/ SUHAIB SALEM; Mursi (above), just clashes, and had troops ready to handle before a speech at Cairo University on June 30 last year, the day he formally took charge of Egypt. both situations.” Like other serving officers REUTERS/STRINGER interviewed for this report, the person re- quested anonymity because of the sensitiv- ity of the situation. He came out with a very a popular uprising ousted veteran autocrat As tensions rose over the following long speech that said nothing Hosni Mubarak. days, Mursi remained defiant. In a final The ease and abruptness of Mursi’s over- telephone conversation with armed forces Military officer who met with Mursi throw underlines the fragility of the Arab commander General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi eight days before he was ousted Spring that toppled a string of Middle on Wednesday, the president laughed and East autocrats. Hopes that popular rebel- made light of mass demonstrations against lions might lead to democracy taking root him, a military source said. confining Mursi as a prisoner in his own remain largely unfulfilled, although the ex- “He just didn’t believe what was going Republican Guard compound, arresting periment is still in progress in Tunisia. on,” the source familiar with Sisi’s contacts key supporters in his Muslim Brotherhood Mursi’s downfall in Egypt, a strategic said. Any hope that the bearded, bespecta- and seizing control of parts of the media. hinge between the Middle East and North cled Mursi would call a referendum on his Thus ended the first attempt to graft po- Africa, makes plain the fractured nature of own future or go quietly, had evaporated. litical Islam and democracy onto the Arab the region and the lack of institutional depth Soon afterwards, as millions took to the world’s most populous and historically to sustain democracy when the tides of pop- streets, the military executed their plan, powerful state, two and a half years after ular opinion change. The result in Egypt and

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Mursi’s approval ratings elsewhere are deep divisions and instability. During his 12 months in office Mursi’s ouster has also renewed the debate around whether democracy and Approve Disapprove political Islam can co-exist. The Muslim Brotherhood’s first taste of power lasted lit- 100 tle more than a year. Muslim Brotherhood 90 members in Egypt point to the irony of 80 the West encouraging democracy but qui- etly supporting a military coup, even if few 70 61% Western leaders are calling it that. 60 The military’s move has also further 50 exposed the many ways in which the 40 Muslim Brotherhood struggled to govern. Egyptians and investors alike complained 30 32% that some ministries had descended into 20 chaos, with key positions filled by Muslim 10 Brotherhood stalwarts who knew little of 0 the workings of a modern economy. The 50 60 80 100 5 678910 11 12 Egyptian stock market rallied the day after days months Mursi’s overthrow. Mursi’s own shortcomings were stark, Survey sample size for the first 50 days to 11 months ranged between 1,000 to 2,000 Egyptians and stand in contrast to the way someone above 18 years old. Sample size for the 12th month (June 2013) was increased to more than 6,000 to allow performance indicators on governorates level. like Nelson Mandela, ailing at the other Source: The Egyptian Center for Public Opinion Research end of the continent, came to power with a message of unity and forgiveness.

SECURITY RISK A provincial engineering professor, Mursi was not a natural political leader. He had become the Muslim Brotherhood’s presi- dential candidate only when the party’s first choice was disqualified. Nevertheless, the novice president appeared decisive on tak- ing office, practising a winner-takes-all in- terpretation of power that alienated a wide swath of secular and Islamic opponents. Soon after he was elected in June 2012 with 51.7 percent of the vote, Mursi ordered Egypt’s two top generals to retire; one was Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi, a veteran who had served Mubarak for 20 years. It seemed a significant break with the past. Mursi’s choice as the new head of the army was General Sisi, 58, a career infan- try officer who had been groomed for a top OUTNUMBERED: Mursi poses with Egypt’s military leaders last October. To Mursi’s right stands role with spells as a field commander, stud- Defence Minister Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and to Mursi’s left is General Sedky Sobhi, chief of staff to ies at a U.S. war college and a stint as a mili- Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. REUTERS/Egyptian Presidency/Handout tary attache in Saudi Arabia. Sisi was also a

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Forced out The overthrew Mohamed Mursi on July 3, slightly more than a year a er he became Egypt’s first freely elected president.

February 11 June 24 July 3 President Hosni Mubarak Islamist Mohamed Mursi Army ousts Mursi steps down and a military is declared Egypt's first and announces council takes over. freely elected president. political transition.

2011 2012 2013 January 25 March 19 January 21 December 22 May 7 June 21 Anti-government In the first Islamist parties Egyptians vote Mursi Protests protests driven by post-Mubarak emerge as victors in referendum, reshules break out discontent over vote, Egyptians of drawn-out narrowly cabinet, in Egypt, poverty, corruption approve package parliamentary approving the brings in calling on and repression, of constitutional elections which constitution. more Mursi to erupt across Egypt. reforms. began on Nov. 28. Islamists. resign.

Source: Reuters devout Muslim and seemed a good fit with worried about putting important national loan deal with the International Monetary Mursi and his Muslim Brotherhood spon- security reports in front of someone we Fund for fear of sparking unrest. Tourism sors, who wanted the military to take a back perceived as a threat to national security,” and investment had dried up because of po- seat after decades of being the real power. the security source said. litical instability. But relations between Mursi and his The generals became equally alarmed Mursi’s bumbling, do-little administra- new generals deteriorated within months about political and sectarian polarisation tion only made things worse. While the of his inauguration. Even Mursi’s appar- in Egypt, against a backdrop of a sharply Muslim Brotherhood remained the most ent success in brokering a ceasefire between worsening economy. They had secured powerful political force and ran a social Israel and the Hamas Islamist movement their own position in an Islamist-tinged welfare network that provided services to that runs the Gaza Strip irked the military. constitution rammed through by Mursi’s the poor and needy, millions of Egyptians “Mursi’s intervention in the Gaza war allies last December, ensuring they would felt no one was representing their interests. made Egypt guarantee that Hamas would remain a state within a state, with limited REFERENDUM REJECTION not carry out attacks on Israel. Which parliamentary scrutiny of their economic threatens Egyptian national security, because privileges, armaments contracts and control Youth activists of the Tamarud – Rebel! what if Hamas did? It could prompt Israel to of the vital Suez Canal. But they were in- movement launched a petition on May 1 retaliate against us,” the security source said. creasingly concerned by what they saw as a demanding Mursi’s resignation; it snow- Mursi also talked loosely about possible risk of civil war. balled, receiving what they say were more Egyptian participation in a jihad (holy war) to By the time Mursi took office, Egypt’s than 22 million signatures. They called for overthrow Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, economy, which had boomed for the rich nationwide protests on June 30, the first and raised the prospect of military action over with scant improvement for the poor in anniversary of his inauguration. a Nile River dam in Ethiopia. As a result, dis- the late Mubarak years, was already in deep Angered by the Muslim Brotherhood’s trust of him grew in Egypt’s high command, trouble. The military council which ruled in perceived power-grabbing and econom- which saw him as recklessly risking their in- the 16-month transition from Mubarak’s ic incompetence, Egyptians turned out volvement in conflicts without properly con- overthrow to Mursi’s inauguration had in their millions to shout “Erhal!” (Get sulting and respecting the generals. failed to carry out long-overdue reforms out!). Counter-demonstrations by Mursi’s “It reached a point where we began to be of food and fuel subsidies or to negotiate a Text continues on page 6

SPECIAL REPORT 4 EGYPT REVOLUTION 2.0

PEOPLE POWER: On July 1 Egypt’s powerful military urged the president to accept a roadmap for the country’s future even as protesters in Cairo (above) called for him to go. REUTERS/SUHAIB SALEM; Islamists, members of the Muslim Brotherhood, and supporters of Mursi (below left), shout slogans during a protest in Cairo in late June. REUTERS/MOHAMED ABD EL GHANY; A looter in the Muslim Brotherhood’s headquarters (below right) after it was ransacked by protesters on July 1. REUTERS/AMR ABDALLAH DALSH

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supporters drew a few hundred thousand Street on Wednesday, July 3 – the day the Economic pain people but were clearly outnumbered by ultimatum was set to expire – to thrash out High inflation, high unemployment, and the malcontents. a roadmap for the country’s second attempt a balance of payment crisis troubled Egypt The day after the June 30 protests, Sisi at a transition to democracy. The meeting long before Mursi took oice. issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Mursi: ei- lasted about six hours, short by Egyptian ther yield to the protesters’ demands that he standards. The army effectively adopted the INFLATION USD/EGP Percent y/y Egyptian pounds share power with the opposition, or make blueprint put forward by Tamarud and en- way for the military to impose a solution. In dorsed by the NSF. 15 5 two private meetings with the president on “General Sisi tried to contact the July 1 and 2, the armed forces chief was even Muslim Brotherhood leader to suggest a more blunt with the president, but met with referendum option, but he along with oth- 10 6 incomprehension and rejection, a military ers refused to come,” the military source source briefed on the meetings said. said. “He also offered it to the politicians “General Sisi went to him and told us and others, but Tamarud members refused 5 7 when he came back, ‘He was in denial, it, and the others agreed to almost every- MUBARAK MURSI he said the protesters are just 130,000 to thing Tamarud suggested.” OUSTED ELECTED 160,000, but I told him ‘No, sir, they are far The twentysomething activists who con- 0 8 more than that and you must listen to their trolled the street were calling the shots. 2010 2011 2012 2013 demands’’, the source said. FOREIGN ADVICE “In the second meeting, General Sisi UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Percent qtr/qtr went with a video recording of the pro- Outsiders were also concerned, not least tests the army had made and told him ‘Sir, because Egypt receives significant U.S. 14 13.2% the situation is out of hand and your sug- aid and Mursi represented a rare beacon gestions to change the government or the of democracy in the region. U.S. President constitution are now too late and will not Barack Obama, on a visit to Tanzania, tele- 12 satisfy the street. I suggest you call a refer- phoned Mursi on Monday July 1 and urged endum on your continued rule.’ But he re- him to respond to the demands of the pro- fused and said this is unconstitutional and testers, the White House said. 10 illegitimate,” the source said. John Kerry, U.S. Secretary of State, told Faced with the president’s refusal, reporters while travelling in the Middle Sisi intensified contacts with Mohamed East last week: “We have made many rec- 8 ElBaradei, the senior liberal politician ommendations to our friends in Egypt. We 2010 2011 2012 2013 nominated by the National Salvation Front are trying to help, as other countries are (NSF) opposition coalition as their nego- trying to help, to create a place for the op- BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (GOODS) tiator with the army, and with the coun- position to be part of the political process Billions of dollars, quarterly try’s revered Muslim and Christian leaders, in order to create some economic reforms 0 Grand Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb of the al- that will help attract business and capital Azhar Islamic institute and Pope Tawadros and begin to move their economy.” -2 of the Coptic Church. Both had publicly Yet senior U.S. officials doubted Mursi’s blessed the protest movement. ability to unite the country and resolve -4 The army chief also made the savvy move the looming crisis. Behind the scenes, of including the young founders of Tamarud Chuck Hagel, the U.S. Defense Secretary, -6 -$7.03 – Rebel! and a leader of the second largest was talking to Sisi, the Pentagon later Islamist party, the ultra-conservative Salafist said. It declined to say what the two men -8 Nour party, an open rival of the Brotherhood discussed, but mutual interests abound: -10 for Muslim hearts and minds. Egypt controls the Suez Canal, through 2010 2011 2012 2013 They all met at the headquarters of mili- which large amounts of oil travel to the tary intelligence on El-Thawra (Revolution) West; the United States provides $1.3 Source: Thomson Reuters.

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billion a year to Egypt’s military. Let’s call what is happening al-Sherbeny, demonstrating near a Cairo How much the United States knew in by its real name: Military coup mosque, said: “The world always thought we advance about the Egyptian military’s in- Islamists didn’t believe in democracy. Now tentions is uncertain. Essam El-Haddad Islamists are teaching Egyptians democracy In recent months U.S. Ambassador Mursi’s national security adviser while the liberals are giving up democracy. Anne Patterson had nudged Mursi publicly And where is the world’s reaction to that?” and privately to be more inclusive, but she The world’s public reaction was muted. continued to stress that he was a legitimate In private, U.S. Defense Secretary Hagel leader, fuelling a widespread perception in again spoke to Sisi, the Pentagon said. Egypt that the United States was backing Another Egyptian general also spoke to the the Brotherhood, and its Qatari sponsors, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, who lent Cairo some $7 billion to keep the General Martin Dempsey. economy afloat. “We understood from some communi- What is clear is that despite Patterson’s cation exchanged between top officials from public statements underlining Mursi’s demo- MILITARY MAN: Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, seen here our side and the Americans and Saudis, and cratic legitimacy – which drew sharp criticism in May, took the decision that Mursi had to go. intelligence reports, that the Americans will in Egyptian media – there was no red light REUTERS/Stringer not be very happy with our intervention, but from Washington against military takeover. we did not care,” an Egyptian army source briefed on the conversation said. “We knew THE ULTIMATUM of Cairo. Police and fire fighters were no- that we have the people’s support.” Last Sunday as at least 500,000 people where in sight. The protesters smashed The linguistic contortions to which the massed in and around Cairo’s Tahrir Square windows, looted the furniture and set fire U.S. administration resorted to avoid call- – and millions more around the country – to the building – a moment that recalled ing the military takeover a coup – President a remarkable repositioning of sympathies the destruction of the state security head- Barack Obama described it as “the decision was taking place. quarters when Mubarak fell. of the to remove In 2011 when protesters sought the After months of trying in vain to get the President Mursi and suspend the Egyptian downfall of Mubarak, a former air force president to reach a power-sharing accom- constitution” – made clear Washington was commander, the crowds had feared the mil- modation with his liberal, nationalist and unwilling to condemn it. itary would attack them. Instead, the army left-wing opponents, Sisi acted. Egypt’s The public and private stance of regional had sided with “the people” and forced their armed forces gave Mursi 48 hours to strike allies was more enthusiastic about the ar- autocrat out. a deal with his opponents or have the army my’s move. Now, as an army helicopter flew over the impose its own road map for the country. “The countries most supportive are crowd in Tahrir Square dropping Egyptian On state television Sisi declared: “If Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab flags, protesters roared approval. The mili- the demands of the people are not realised Emirates because they understand Egypt’s tary said the move was intended to encour- within the defined period, it will be in- strategic importance to the Arab and age patriotism, not signify political support, cumbent upon (the armed forces) ... to an- Islamic world and fear the expansion of but the implication was clear: the protesters nounce a road map for the future.” the Brotherhood,” another security source confronting Mursi need not fear the army. The army said it would oversee the imple- said. “They also know that the end of the The military supplied aerial video of mentation of the road map “with the partici- Brotherhood in Egypt is the end of the the vast throngs of anti-Mursi demonstra- pation of all factions and national parties, in- Brotherhood in the Arab world.” tors to television stations to demonstrate cluding young people,” but it would not get LAST POST the sheer scale of support for his removal. directly involved in politics or government. “What we have now is an information war Mursi did not immediately respond. But When Mursi finally reacted to Sisi’s ul- with the Muslim Brotherhood,” the mili- the bitter irony was clear: the army that the timatum, he rebuffed the army and said tary source said. 2011 revolutionaries had hoped would stay he would pursue his own plans for na- That night militant protesters targeted out of politics was presenting an ultimatum tional reconciliation. the Muslim Brotherhood’s national head- to the elected president. Mursi’s support- “The president of the republic was not quarters, a four-storey building in a suburb ers were quick to make the point. Hassan consulted about the statement issued by

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the armed forces,” said Mursi’s office. “The presidency confirms that it is going forward on its previously plotted path to promote comprehensive national reconciliation.” With protesters besieging the main Ittihadiya presidential palace, Mursi had been moved for his own safety to the nearby Qubba palace, once the official residence of King Farouk who himself was toppled by a mili- tary coup in 1952. On Wednesday, Mursi was driven to his reserve office in the Republican Guard compound near Cairo airport. On his last day at work there, apparently oblivious to his impending downfall, Mursi conferred with aides and carried on with business as usual as the clock ticked down. “The president is still the president and he is still sitting in his office, with his team,” said CLEAR SKY: Egyptian military helicopters trailing national flags circle over an anti-Mursi protest on Yaser Haddara, a communications adviser July 1. REUTERS/Suhaib Salem to Mursi, speaking by mobile phone from inside the compound at around 6 p.m. on Wednesday, an hour after the army ultima- ,” the military source throughout the Muslim world loud and tum expired. “The general mood is actually said, adding that the army had been upset clear: democracy is not for Muslims. Many quite comfortable. People are working, be- at seeing Mubarak, a former airforce com- have seen fit in these last months to lecture lieve it or not.” mander, paraded behind bars in a court- us on how democracy is more than just the Most of his staff were ushered out of the room cage after he was ousted. ballot box. That may indeed be true. But building shortly afterwards. The last that many Egyptians saw of the what is definitely true is that there is no de- At around 7 p.m., Sisi called Mursi man who won 13 million votes in the first mocracy without the ballot box.” and asked him one last time if he would free presidential election just a year earlier agree to a referendum on his continuation was a shaky video clip posted on YouTube Additional reporting by Asma Alsharif, Alastair in office or to hand over to the speaker of showing Mursi, seated at his desk, de- Macdonald, Tom Perry and Shadia Nasralla in parliament, the source said. The president nouncing the military takeover and calling Egypt, Lesley Wroughton in Kuwait, and Phil demurred and the general told him he was for peaceful resistance. Stewart in Washington no longer president. Mursi and his closest While Mursi was his usual repetitive, Writing by Paul Taylor; Editing by Richard aide, national security adviser Essam El- long-winded self in his final broadcast, Woods and Simon Robinson Haddad, were effectively placed in deten- Haddad posted a forensic 885-word anal- tion at the compound and told they could ysis of his boss’s downfall on his official FOR MORE INFORMATION not leave for their own safety. Facebook page. Yasmine Saleh, Correspondent, Cairo “He was treated with respect because “As I write these lines I am fully aware [email protected] we don’t want to destroy his image as a that these may be the last lines I get to post Paul Taylor, European Affairs Editor on this page,” the Birmingham-trained [email protected] REUTERS VIDEO doctor wrote. “For the sake of Egypt and Richard Woods, Senior Editor, Enterprise for historical accuracy, let’s call what is hap- and Investigations, EMEA TIMELINE: pening by its real name: Military coup.” [email protected] The fall of Mohamed Mursi: Michael Williams, Global Enterprise Editor http://link.reuters.com/zes49t If the army intervention prevailed, he wrote, “the message will resonate [email protected]

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