HTTPS://COMMUNITY.APAN.ORG/WG/TRADOC-G2/FMSO/ Foreign Military Studies Office Volume 10 Issue #7 OEWATCH July 2020 FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT EURASIA 3 Russia’s Mi-28NM ‘Night Superhunter’ Attack Helicopter 6 Russian Armed Forces Purchasing New Airframes 7 Russian Aviation Increases Training 9 Russia’s A-50U Long-Range Radar Detection Aircraft 12 Going Blue by 2030: Upgrading and Refitting the Pacific Fleet 14 Training the Airborne for Mountain Combat 15 The Northern Fleet’s Combat Training with an Arctic Focus 18 Looking Beyond China: Asian Actors in the Russian Arctic (Part Two) 20 Russian Religious Patriotism 22 Expanding Russia’s Military Presence in Syria 23 Russian Arms Sales to Iran? 25 Russian Ministry of Defense: Battening Down the Information Hatches 26 Six Years On: The MH-17 Tragedy and Girkin’s Damning Interview 27 Ukrainian Capabilities Challenge Russian Superiority in the Black Sea 28 Chinese Security Assistance to Tajikistan 29 Azerbaijan’s Large-Scale Exercise Amid Coronavirus 31 Spanish Authorities Foil Weaponized Drone Attack by ISIS Sympathizer 32 Antifa in Spain INDO-PACIFIC 33 China Sees Itself Widening the Gap with the United States in 6G Technology 34 China: Will COVID-19 Slow Military Modernization? 36 Integrated-Strike Battalions in China’s Vision of Future Warfare 37 Breakthrough in Growing Crops on China’s South China Sea Outposts 39 China Tests Emergency Support Capabilities Along its Southern Border 41 74th Group Army Conducts Mobilization Exercise with Roll-on Roll-off Ships 43 Chinese Flying Boat Enters Next Stage of Development 45 The Philippines: Abu Sayyaf Factions and Coronavirus Cause Alarm 46 Indonesia: Debating the Military’s Role in Counter-Terrorism 47 An “Internship” in the Indian Army? 48 Increased Attacks in Afghanistan Post US-Taliban Peace Deal MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFRICA 50 Russia and Iran’s Competitive Relationship in Syria 52 Scenarios for the Future of Syria 54 Talks to Unify Kurds in Syria 55 Russian Power Projection in the Middle East and North Africa 57 Tension between Russia and Turkey over Libya 59 Turkey’s Naval Power and the Role of Domestic Firms 61 Why Did the Turkish Naval Chief Resign? 63 Egyptian TV Show Aims to Control the Narrative in the Sinai 65 Yemen’s South-South Divisions Continue to Plague the Saudi-Emirati Coalition 67 IRGC Navy Showcases Unmanned Underwater Vehicle 68 IRGC Navy Announces Construction of Two New Ships and Unveils New Speedboats 69 The Three Main Missions of the Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran 70 An Afghan Perspective: A New Phase in Afghanistan-Iran Relations AFRICA 72 China-Africa Relations in the Time of COVID-19 73 South Africa’s Military in Decline 74 Kenya’s Exit Plan from Somalia 75 Kenya Criticized for Law Enforcement Response to COVID-19 76 Funding and Logistics for West African Terrorists 77 Côte d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso Coordinate on Counter-Terrorism 78 Burkina Faso Faces Jihadists and Coronavirus 79 Germany Continues Military Support to Mali 80 France Publishes Updated Mali Security Assessment 81 Mozambican Government Perspectives on Insurgent Tactics 82 Zimbabwe: Amid Economic Crisis, President Tries to Strengthen Grip on Power LATIN AMERICA 83 More Iran in Venezuela 84 Iranian Gasoline Support to Venezuela Linked During Pandemic 85 Social Protests in Venezuela, in the Streets and Online 86 Gulf Cartel Conducts Psychological Operations During COVID-19 Pandemic 87 Coronavirus-Affected Trade Causes Challenges for the Sinaloa Cartel 88 Mexican Cartels Expanding Operations in Colombia 89 Colombia’s Pandemic Recovery 90 Former Colombian President Uribe in Social Media Crosshairs 92 Revolutionary Chile Dogs 93 Bolivia’s 2020 Elections APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION IS UNLIMITED The Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, is part of the US Army Training and Doctrine Command G-2, whose mission OEWATCH is to Understand, Describe, Deliver, and Foreign News & Perspectives Assess the conditions of the Operational of the Operational Environment Environment. For over 30 years, FMSO has conducted open source research Volume 10 | Issue 7 July | 2020 on foreign perspectives of defense and security issues, emphasizing those topics that are understudied or Regional Analysts and unconsidered. Expert Contributors Operational Environment Watch Eurasia Chuck Bartles provides translated selections with Ray Finch background from a diverse range Les Grau of foreign media that our analysts Adam Rodger Matthew Stein and expert contributors believe will Sergey Sukhankin give security professionals an added dimension to their critical thinking Indo-Pacific Cindy Hurst about the Operational Environment. Jerrilee Plude Matthew Stein Peter Wood Jacob Zenn The views expressed in each article are those of the author and do not represent the official policy or Middle East, North Africa Robert Bunker position of the Department of the Army, Department Ihsan Gündüz of Defense, or the US Government. Release of this Karen Kaya information does not imply any commitment or intent Alma Keshavarz on the part of the US Government to provide any Michael Rubin additional information on any topic presented herein. Lucas Winter The appearance of hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement by the US Army of the referenced site Africa Dodge Billingsley or the information, products, or services contained Robert Feldman therein. Users should exercise caution in accessing Jacob Zenn hyperlinks. Latin America Geoff Demarest The Operational Environment Watch is archived Brenda Fiegel and available at: https://community.apan.org/wg/ Stevie Lundell tradoc-g2/fmso/. Editor-in-Chief Tom Wilhelm Editor Karen Kaya Design Editor Thomas Tolare ON THE COVER: Soldiers of the Assam Regiment. Source: Defense Dept. photo by U.S. Air Force Tech. Sgt. Jerry Morrison via Wikimedia, https://en.wikipedia. org/wiki/Indian_Army#/media/File:IndianArmyDelhi.JPG, Public Domain EURASIA Russia’s Mi-28NM ‘Night Superhunter’ Attack Helicopter OE Watch Commentary: The Russian Federation currently fields two sole- purpose attack helicopters, the Ka-52 “Alligator” and the Mi-28N “Nochnoy Okhotnik (Night Hunter),” which are slated for modernization to the Ka- 52M/Mi-28NM standards respectively. As the excerpted article from the 7 May edition of Izvestia explains, although both are primary sole-purpose attack helicopters in the Russian inventory, they fill slightly different niches. Generally, the Ka-52s are more maneuverable and better suited for air-to-air combat than the more heavily armored Mi-28s. Izvestia reports that despite different manufacturers, the radios, on-board defense systems, and weapons of the Ka-52M and the Mi-28NM will be standardized as much as possible to simplify maintenance and lower costs. The accompanying excerpted article from the 12 May edition of Izvestia explains how the Mi-28NM “Nochnoy Superokhotnik (Night Superhunter)” is entering serial production and will be capable of employing Hermes-A [Гермес-А] air-to-surface missiles and Khrizantema-VM [Хризантема-вм] anti-tank guided missiles. The accompanying excerpted article from the 10 Mi-28. February edition of Izvestia discusses how the Mi-28NM strike helicopter Source: Vitaly Kuzmin, https://www.vitalykuzmin.net/Military/MAKS-2007/i-sWd9Phd/A, CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 will become a formidable air-to-air combatant, due to the capability to fire R-74М air-to-air missiles. As stated by Izvestia, The R-74М can target enemy aircraft, UAVs, and cruise missiles, and even fifth-generation aircraft. End OE Watch Commentary (Bartles) “The R-74M has a much higher range, sensitivity, and resistance to interferences. It packs more explosives, leaving no chances to any aerial target. That is why the Mi-28NM will easily shoot down an American AH-64 Apache, which will not even see it coming.” Source: Anton Lavrov and Roman Kretsul reporting development and production cycle of newest Russian attack helicopters: “Крадущийся «Аллигатор»: испытания Ка-52М завершатся через два года (The Stealthy ‘Alligator’: Testing of the Ka-52M and Mi-28NM Will End in Two Years),” Izvestia Online, 7 May 2020. https://iz.ru/1008123/anton-lavrov-roman-kretcul/kradushchiisia-alligator-ispytaniia-ka-52m- zavershatsia-cherez-dva-goda State testing of the newest Ka-52M strike helicopter will be completed at the end of 2022. At the present time the efforts of the military and the engineers are concentrated on accelerating the launch of its competitor, the Mi-28NM “Night Hunter” into series production…According to sources at the publication, for the time being the decision has been made to concentrate primary efforts on the Mi-28NM project. The development program for this craft will be finished sooner…The engineers’ plans also call for the automatic interfacing of the craft with the “Strelets” command, control and intelligence complex. Ground troops, spetsnaz and airborne troops will be able to exchange battlefield situation information in the automatic mode… Army aviation operates at relatively low altitudes and is to a large degree subjected to the danger of shelling from the ground. Therefore, recently an attempt has been made to adapt all helicopters for use during the night. It is simpler and faster to do this with the Mi-28NM, noted Distinguished Test Pilot Colonel Igor Malikov, the former deputy head of the State Flight Test Center. “It happens that under conditions of limited resources priority is initially given to craft that are at a greater degree of readiness and require less time and effort for upgrading,” the expert related to “Izvestiya.” “In another situation the Mi28NM and the Ka-52M would be developed in parallel. But in any event both craft will be completed and delivered to the troops.” As “Izvestiya” reported previously, following the modernization, the communications gear, on-board defense systems and weapons of the Ka-52M and the Mi-28NM will be standardized to the maximum extent. This is necessary to simplify and lower the cost of joint operations and technical maintenance of the two different types of helicopters…Everything depends on the mission that is assigned.