WAR, TERROR & POLITICAL VIOLENCE WTPV BRIEFING APRIL 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS Transnational terrorism 2 Profile: Peru 3 Worldwide political violence 4 Africa Americas Asia Europe Middle East and North Africa Rebels ride past a fuel-storage facility attacked during clashes with government forces near Sedra, eastern Libya AIRSTRIKES HIT LIBYA AS MIDDLE EAST UNREST CONTINUES The US, UK and France began airstrikes Ali Abdullah Saleh declared a state of and cruise missile attacks against Libyan emergency, suggesting that the government air-defence installations and ground forces had lost patience with mediation efforts. on 19 March. Explosions were reported However, his position weakened on 21 in the capital Tripoli on 23 March as the March with the defection of three senior coalition continued enforcing a no-fly zone generals, who declared support for the over eastern Libya. The strikes followed a opposition and reportedly positioned units in UN Security Council resolution authorising central Sanaa to protect protesters. Looting the use of ‘all necessary measures’ to and arson were reported in the southern For more information about Hiscox or protect Libyan civilians from pro-regime city of Aden on 22 March, while there were Control Risks, please contact: forces. Uncertainty persists over the exact clashes in Mukulla on 21 March. purpose of the military engagement; Stephen Ashwell proponents of intervention have pointed to Bahrain’s government on 15 March Tel: 020 7448 6725 the humanitarian need for such measures, imposed a state of emergency and on 16 1 Great St Helen’s, London EC3A 6HX though there are also some indications March forcibly removed demonstrators from [email protected] that regime change is the ultimate goal. Pearl Roundabout in the capital Manama. www.hiscox.com Government forces ended a siege of the Saudi troops were deployed as part of a opposition-dominated city of Benghazi regional mission on 14 March. Regime Peter Simpson after the first airstrikes, but clashes were hardliners appear to have gained the Tel: 020 7970 2373 later reported in Ajdabiya in the east, and upper hand, and prospects for a political Cottons Centre, Cottons Lane, Misrata and Zintan to the west. resolution appear poor. Meanwhile, in Syria London SE1 2QG five protesters were reportedly killed and 12 [email protected] The situation in Yemen deteriorated on 18 injured on 23 March in the south-western March with the killing of at least 45 unarmed city of Daraa as protests began to intensify, www.control-risks.com protesters in the capital Sanaa. President but faced a harsh security response. 1 Prepared by for Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach will lead to removal from the distribution list Transnational groups and Islamist extremism TWO DEAD IN FRANKFURT ATTACK ALGERIA CLASHES A lone gunman on 2 March attacked a bus carrying US Air Force personnel at Frankfurt airport, killing two people and injuring two others. Police arrested the assailant, a 21-year- Reports on 9 March indicated old Kosovo national resident in Germany, in the airport terminal building shortly afterwards. that the security forces had killed The suspect two suspected members of main reportedly fired domestic Islamist extremist group several shots before al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb fleeing into the (QIM) in a clash near Ighlil Ali, terminal building. on the border between the north- One report eastern provinces of Bejaia and suggests that the Bordj Bou Arreridj. The incident gunman shouted came a day after five civilians ‘Allahu Akbar’ were killed in a roadside bomb (‘God is great’) as attack near the city of Djelfa (Djelfa he boarded the province), approximately 170 miles bus. In common (270km) south of the capital Algiers. with much of the media coverage Recent and continuing clashes in in the aftermath of the north of the country highlight a terrorist attacks, seasonal uptick in activity on the the report may part of both the security forces and prove speculative QIM as weather conditions in QIM’s and unreliable. mountainous strongholds in northern Police investigate the US military vehicle following the attack in Frankfurt Nevertheless, and particularly north-eastern multiple reports Algeria improve. Nevertheless, suggest that the attacker’s Facebook page contained statements of Islamist extremist the security environment in such sympathies. Federal prosecutors are working on this basis, and the incident appears mountainous and rural areas has likely to have been a terrorist attack. The search for connections with other individuals in not significantly changed in recent Germany with similar beliefs is likely to produce many results, though this alone would not years, and the threat that QIM indicate a wider extremist network co-operating to plan terrorist attacks. poses remains high. Most recent incidents have taken the form of clashes between the KENYA WARNING security forces and QIM, though an attack in February on a convoy Somali Islamist insurgent group al-Shabab on 27 February renewed warnings of planned guarding employees of an Italian terrorist attacks in Kenya. The group’s spokesman, Sheikh Ali Mohamed Rage, said that company underlined QIM’s high al-Shabab would ‘no longer tolerate’ Kenyan efforts to intervene in the conflict in Somalia. intent and capability to attack foreign The warnings underscore the latent threat of transnational terrorism in the Horn and East companies active in such regions. Africa, which has long provided bases and transit routes for terrorist groups and operatives Meanwhile, the recent lifting of a but has not historically been a major theatre of terrorist activity. However, while the region is state of emergency in place since arguably becoming more vulnerable to attacks, threat levels are not rising rapidly. 1992 is unlikely to substantially alter East Africa is likely to remain vulnerable to a range of security risks as long as instability the security environment in such persists in Somalia. Al-Shabab recently accused Kenya of training soldiers for the Western- areas or lead to significant changes backed Somali transitional federal government and allowing Ethiopian forces to use Kenyan in practices regarding issues such border towns as staging posts for raids into Somalia. In addition, the pool of potential as military escorts for movement. recruits to extremist causes across the region is likely to increase in the coming years. However, such individuals are equally – if not more – likely to be mobilised for political violence and anti-democratic opposition activities as terrorism. 2 Prepared by for Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach will lead to removal from the distribution list the destruction of at least 40 illegal dredgers on the Madre de Dios river. Meanwhile, informal miners in the south- eastern department of Madre de Dios have continued to observe a work stoppage in protest at a military operation to clear illegal mining posts in February. Miners in early March staged demonstrations and erected roadblocks in Puerto Maldonado, the departmental capital. The indefinite strike called by informal miners is likely to attract significant participation because the issue of illegal mining remains emotive in the region. The industrial action by miners in Madre de Dios is likely to continue indefinitely, as the protesters have rejected the government’s suspension of military operations in the department on 1 March. The potential exists for further outbreaks of unrest in Puerto Maldonado and elsewhere in the lead-up Protesters run from tear gas fired by police during a protest in support of Amazon Indians in Lima in June 2009 to the work stoppage on 26 March. The industrial action has reportedly involved Peru is preparing for the April 2011 Despite strong and sustained economic several incidents of looting and violent presidential election against a backdrop of growth in recent years, Peru’s newly demonstrations in the departmental capital. unprecedented economic growth but also generated wealth has failed to trickle increasing dissatisfaction with mainstream down to the poorer sectors of society. High SHINING PATH politics. The country’s trajectory will be levels of inequality have fuelled social determined by two competing forces: the unrest, particularly in the poorer highland Despite recent attacks that stoked fears of desire to preserve economic growth and and jungle provinces where the lucrative the group’s resurgence, the Shining Path increasing pressure to spread the proceeds extractive industries are concentrated. The (SL) guerrilla group has been in steady of this growth more equitably. Overall authorities have avoided a repeat of the decline since 1992, when its leader Abimael continuity, both in terms of economic policy June 2009 events in the Amazonian town of Guzmán was arrested. Remaining SL cells and periodic outbreaks of unrest, remains Bagua, which culminated in the deaths of 33 are confined to remote areas of the central the most likely scenario. people, but there were large-scale protests highlands, where their primary focus is in 2010 over gas exports and mining on controlling the illegal drugs trade. This Peru’s political stability was illustrated by the projects. Maintaining economic growth while ensures a steady flow of revenue, meaning peaceful, transparent conduct of the 2006 improving