Briefing April 2011

WAR, TERROR & POLITICAL VIOLENCE WTPV BRIEFING APRIL 2011

TABLE OF CONTENTS Transnational terrorism 2

Profile: Peru 3

Worldwide political violence 4 Africa Americas Asia Europe Middle East and North Africa

Rebels ride past a fuel-storage facility attacked during clashes with government forces near Sedra, eastern Libya AIRSTRIKES HIT LIBYA AS MIDDLE EAST UNREST CONTINUES The US, UK and France began airstrikes Ali Abdullah Saleh declared a state of and cruise missile attacks against Libyan emergency, suggesting that the government air-defence installations and ground forces had lost patience with mediation efforts. on 19 March. Explosions were reported However, his position weakened on 21 in the capital Tripoli on 23 March as the March with the defection of three senior coalition continued enforcing a no-fly zone generals, who declared support for the over eastern Libya. The strikes followed a opposition and reportedly positioned units in UN Security Council resolution authorising central Sanaa to protect protesters. Looting the use of ‘all necessary measures’ to and arson were reported in the southern For more information about Hiscox or protect Libyan civilians from pro-regime city of Aden on 22 March, while there were Control Risks, please contact: forces. Uncertainty persists over the exact clashes in Mukulla on 21 March. purpose of the military engagement; Stephen Ashwell proponents of intervention have pointed to Bahrain’s government on 15 March Tel: 020 7448 6725 the humanitarian need for such measures, imposed a state of emergency and on 16 1 Great St Helen’s, London EC3A 6HX though there are also some indications March forcibly removed demonstrators from [email protected] that regime change is the ultimate goal. Pearl Roundabout in the capital Manama. www.hiscox.com Government forces ended a siege of the Saudi troops were deployed as part of a opposition-dominated city of Benghazi regional mission on 14 March. Regime Peter Simpson after the first airstrikes, but clashes were hardliners appear to have gained the Tel: 020 7970 2373 later reported in Ajdabiya in the east, and upper hand, and prospects for a political Cottons Centre, Cottons Lane, Misrata and Zintan to the west. resolution appear poor. Meanwhile, in Syria London SE1 2QG five protesters were reportedly killed and 12 [email protected] The situation in Yemen deteriorated on 18 injured on 23 March in the south-western March with the killing of at least 45 unarmed city of Daraa as protests began to intensify, www.control-risks.com protesters in the capital Sanaa. President but faced a harsh security response.

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TWO DEAD IN FRANKFURT ATTACK ALGERIA CLASHES A lone gunman on 2 March attacked a bus carrying US Air Force personnel at Frankfurt airport, killing two people and injuring two others. Police arrested the assailant, a 21-year- Reports on 9 March indicated old Kosovo national resident in Germany, in the airport terminal building shortly afterwards. that the security forces had killed The suspect two suspected members of main reportedly fired domestic Islamist extremist group several shots before al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb fleeing into the (QIM) in a clash near Ighlil Ali, terminal building. on the border between the north- One report eastern provinces of Bejaia and suggests that the Bordj Bou Arreridj. The incident gunman shouted came a day after five civilians ‘Allahu Akbar’ were killed in a roadside bomb (‘God is great’) as attack near the city of Djelfa (Djelfa he boarded the province), approximately 170 miles bus. In common (270km) south of the capital Algiers. with much of the media coverage Recent and continuing clashes in in the aftermath of the north of the country highlight a terrorist attacks, seasonal uptick in activity on the the report may part of both the security forces and prove speculative QIM as weather conditions in QIM’s and unreliable. mountainous strongholds in northern Police investigate the US military vehicle following the attack in Frankfurt Nevertheless, and particularly north-eastern multiple reports Algeria improve. Nevertheless, suggest that the attacker’s Facebook page contained statements of Islamist extremist the security environment in such sympathies. Federal prosecutors are working on this basis, and the incident appears mountainous and rural areas has likely to have been a terrorist attack. The search for connections with other individuals in not significantly changed in recent Germany with similar beliefs is likely to produce many results, though this alone would not years, and the threat that QIM indicate a wider extremist network co-operating to plan terrorist attacks. poses remains high.

Most recent incidents have taken the form of clashes between the KENYA WARNING security forces and QIM, though an attack in February on a convoy Somali Islamist insurgent group al-Shabab on 27 February renewed warnings of planned guarding employees of an Italian terrorist attacks in Kenya. The group’s spokesman, Sheikh Ali Mohamed Rage, said that company underlined QIM’s high al-Shabab would ‘no longer tolerate’ Kenyan efforts to intervene in the conflict in Somalia. intent and capability to attack foreign The warnings underscore the latent threat of transnational terrorism in the Horn and East companies active in such regions. Africa, which has long provided bases and transit routes for terrorist groups and operatives Meanwhile, the recent lifting of a but has not historically been a major theatre of terrorist activity. However, while the region is state of emergency in place since arguably becoming more vulnerable to attacks, threat levels are not rising rapidly. 1992 is unlikely to substantially alter East Africa is likely to remain vulnerable to a range of security risks as long as instability the security environment in such persists in Somalia. Al-Shabab recently accused Kenya of training soldiers for the Western- areas or lead to significant changes backed Somali transitional federal government and allowing Ethiopian forces to use Kenyan in practices regarding issues such border towns as staging posts for raids into Somalia. In addition, the pool of potential as military escorts for movement. recruits to extremist causes across the region is likely to increase in the coming years. However, such individuals are equally – if not more – likely to be mobilised for political violence and anti-democratic opposition activities as terrorism.

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Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach will lead to removal from the distribution list the destruction of at least 40 illegal dredgers on the Madre de Dios river. Meanwhile, informal miners in the south- eastern department of Madre de Dios have continued to observe a work stoppage in protest at a military operation to clear illegal mining posts in February. Miners in early March staged demonstrations and erected roadblocks in Puerto Maldonado, the departmental capital.

The indefinite strike called by informal miners is likely to attract significant participation because the issue of illegal mining remains emotive in the region. The industrial action by miners in Madre de Dios is likely to continue indefinitely, as the protesters have rejected the government’s suspension of military operations in the department on 1 March. The potential exists for further outbreaks of unrest in Puerto Maldonado and elsewhere in the lead-up Protesters run from tear gas fired by police during a protest in support of Amazon Indians in Lima in June 2009 to the work stoppage on 26 March. The industrial action has reportedly involved Peru is preparing for the April 2011 Despite strong and sustained economic several incidents of looting and violent presidential election against a backdrop of growth in recent years, Peru’s newly demonstrations in the departmental capital. unprecedented economic growth but also generated wealth has failed to trickle increasing dissatisfaction with mainstream down to the poorer sectors of society. High SHINING PATH politics. The country’s trajectory will be levels of inequality have fuelled social determined by two competing forces: the unrest, particularly in the poorer highland Despite recent attacks that stoked fears of desire to preserve economic growth and and jungle provinces where the lucrative the group’s resurgence, the Shining Path increasing pressure to spread the proceeds extractive industries are concentrated. The (SL) guerrilla group has been in steady of this growth more equitably. Overall authorities have avoided a repeat of the decline since 1992, when its leader Abimael continuity, both in terms of economic policy June 2009 events in the Amazonian town of Guzmán was arrested. Remaining SL cells and periodic outbreaks of unrest, remains Bagua, which culminated in the deaths of 33 are confined to remote areas of the central the most likely scenario. people, but there were large-scale protests highlands, where their primary focus is in 2010 over gas exports and mining on controlling the illegal drugs trade. This Peru’s political stability was illustrated by the projects. Maintaining economic growth while ensures a steady flow of revenue, meaning peaceful, transparent conduct of the 2006 improving wealth distribution will be a key that predictions of the group’s imminent presidential election and the October 2010 challenge for the new administration. demise are premature. However, the SL regional polls, and the presidential election lacks the capacity – and, arguably, the and transition to a new administration will STRIKE ACTION intent – to carry out a nationwide terrorist be equally smooth. Nevertheless, President campaign. Alan García’s government will leave office Informal miners’ union FMAP has called an with a mixed record; while García himself indefinite strike with effect from 26 March has confounded critics who expected him to demand that the government conduct to adopt the same populist policies as an investigation into the alleged murder during his first, disastrous term in 1985-90, by police in March 2010 of four activists, his term has also seen increased levels of which occurred during attempts to disperse social unrest because of the widespread protesting miners blocking the Interoceánica perception that Peru’s new wealth is not highway in Chala (Arequipa department). being equitably shared. The miners were demonstrating against

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Africa

Burkina Faso: Four people were killed on 27 February in clashes between police and protesters in the city of Koudougou. The demonstrations were provoked by the death in police custody of local student Justin Zongo.

Congo (DRC): An armed group on 27 February attacked the presidential palace and a TO WATCH military camp in the capital Kinshasa. At least six attackers were killed and eight reportedly arrested. Information Minister Lambert Mende described the attack as a coup attempt. Côte d’Ivoire: Weeks of violence and human-rights abuses are Madagascar: Interim President Andry Rajoelina of the High Authority for Transition (HAT) likely before the political situation on 3 March survived an assassination attempt in the capital Antananarivo. The HAT becomes clearer. Further blamed the incident on opposition groups opposed to the Southern African Development government interference in the Community (SADC)’s transition timetable. economy or a coup remain key threats. However, full-blown civil Nigeria: Two hand-held explosive devices were detonated at a ruling People’s Democratic war is unlikely. Party (PDP) rally in Suleja (Niger state) on 3 March, killing ten people and injuring around 20 others. An individual in possession of explosives was arrested shortly after the incident.

Senegal: Three soldiers on 26 February were killed and three others injured in clashes with members of the separatist Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance (MFDC) in the southern Casamance region. The skirmishes came amid a large-scale security operation against rebels in the area.

Americas

Chile: A small explosive device detonated late on 20 March outside the Chilean-North American Institute in the coastal city of Viña del Mar (Region V), shattering windows but causing no injuries. A similar attack occurred early on 7 March, when a small homemade bomb detonated in the La Reina residential neighbourhood of the capital Santiago.

Colombia: Four suspected members of leftist guerrilla group the Revolutionary Armed KEY DATE Forces of Colombia (FARC) on 20 March were killed in clashes with government forces 17 Apr - Brazil: Rallies and land in a rural area near Neiva, the capital of the south-western department of Huila. The invasions are likely nationwide government claimed the dead rebels were members of FARC leader Alfonso Cano’s as land activist groups led by the personal security team. Landless Workers’ Movement commemorate the killing by the Honduras: One person was killed and two others injured on 18 March during clashes police of 19 landless demonstrators between police and teachers participating in a rally in the capital Tegucigalpa. The teachers in Eldorado de Carajás (Pará state) had been on strike since 28 February in protest at legislation centralising elements of the in 1996. education system and were demanding the return of ousted president Manuel Zelaya.

Peru: Activists affiliated to the Liga Nacional de Carperos (LNC), an organisation supporting landless farmers, on 7 March broke into and occupied private farms in San Pedro department, including in the departmental capital San Pedro del Ycuamandiyú and the districts of Nueva Germania Tacuatí, Santa Rosa del Aguaray and Gen Isidro Resquín.

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Indonesia: Three small explosive devices on 15 March were sent to the addresses of three prominent local individuals in the capital Jakarta. One device exploded after a police officer attempted to defuse it, seriously injuring him and several bystanders. KEY DATES Pakistan: A suicide bombing on 9 March outside Peshawar, the capital of Khyber 4-11 Apr - India: Separatist militant Pakhtunkhwa province, killed at least 38 people. The attack occurred a day after a car groups in the north-eastern state bombing at a petrol (gas) station in Faisalabad in Punjab killed at least 20 people. of Asom (Assam) may attempt to stage low-intensity attacks during Philippines: At least 40 suspected members of the rebel New People’s Army (NPA) on state-level elections due to be held 19 March attacked the local police headquarters in Panabo City, 16 miles (27km) north of in two stages. Davao City (Davao region, Mindanao island). A police officer was killed and four others were injured in an ensuing 30-minute gunfight.

Thailand: The secretary-general of the National Security Councili on 8 March said that violence was escalating in the southern-most provinces of Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani, as well as several districts in neighbouring Songkhla. The announcement came a day after insurgents detonated a 110lb (50kg) device in a pickup truck in front of a police hostel in Si Sakhon district in Narathiwat, killing one person and injuring a passer-by.

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Croatia: A series of demonstrations were staged in the capital Zagreb in late February and early March, some of which turned violent. Young protesters rallied on several occasions to demand the government’s resignation and early elections.

France/Spain: Police in northern France on 10 March arrested four suspected members KEY DATE of the military high command of Basque separatist terrorist group ETA. One of the four, Alejandro Zobarán Arriola (‘Xarla’), was reportedly the most recent head of the group’s 8-9 Apr - Georgia: Demonstrations military operations. Previously, police in the Spanish province of Vizcaya on 1 March are likely in the capital Tbilisi to arrested four people on suspicion of forming ETA’s so-called Otazua cell, believed to have mark the anniversary of the killing of been responsible for the murders of a senior police officer and an army officer in 2008. demonstrators in the city by Soviet troops in 1989. Kyrgyzstan: Several hundred ethnic Kyrgyz on 1 March set fire to an ethnic-Uzbek businessman’s residence in the south-western town of Nookat, 18 miles (30km) south of the provincial capital Osh city. Reports indicated that at least two other residences in the town may also have been attacked.

Russia: A bomb on 9 March exploded at a bus stop near the Federal Security Service (FSB) Academy in south-west Moscow. The explosion did not cause any casualties but damaged the bus stop and nearby vehicles.

Separately, a television channel on 1 March reported that citizens in the Kabardino Balkaria region in the North Caucasus had formed a militia group called the Black Hawks to target Islamist militants and their families in revenge for local terrorist acts. The organisation claimed responsibility for several attacks in February.

within SPF, and that the other three terrorist group operating in Greece for In-depth people arrested provided logistical most of the 2000s. With the exception support. The raid in Athens concerned a of a spate of parcel bombs carried out supposed SPF safe-house in the city. The by SPF in November 2010 against operation is the most recent in a series of embassies in Athens and various public interdiction efforts against SPF, for which figures, the number of terrorism incidents the capacity to carry out further attacks since mid-2010 has decreased notably. must now be in question. The loss of Nevertheless, a significant base of ultra- human and material resources will prove leftists and anarchists remain, particularly GREECE a major blow for SPF, even if it is not within the university systems in Athens Police on 14 March arrested seven completely eradicated. and Thessaloniki. As a result, new violent groups similar to SPF, EA or the original people on suspicion of links to domestic The arrests were the most recent in a Revolutionary Organisation 17 November terrorist group Conspiracy of Fire series of successful police operations (N-17) are certain to eventually emerge, Nuclei (SPF), though they released one against SPF, which have brought though greater police efficiency will detainee almost immediately. The arrests the group potentially close to being impede the process. followed raids in the capital Athens and eradicated. In any case, SPF is much the city of Volos, 125 miles (200km) to weaker than it was at its height in 2009 the north. Police recovered 11 weapons and early 2010. The focus on SPF follows in the raids, including three assault rifles. the seeming eradication in April 2010 Officials believe that two of those of Revolutionary Struggle (EA) – the arrested in Volos were significant figures most significant ultra-leftist/anarchist

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Bahrain: Crown Prince Sheikh Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa on 15 March announced a state of emergency. The following day, police and military forces cleared protesters from Pearl Roundabout in Manama amid unconfirmed reports of gunfire and casualties. Previously, members of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC)’s Peninsula Shield security force were sent to the kingdom on 14 March at the request of King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa to restore ‘security and domestic safety’. TO WATCH Bahrain: Political tensions remain At least ten people, including six soldiers, on 3 March were killed and 26 others Iraq: elevated following the deployment injured in a suicide bombing outside a bank in Haditha (Anbar province), around 120 miles to the kingdom of forces from Saudi (190km) north-west of the capital Baghdad. The victims were waiting to collect their salaries Arabia and the UAE. While the when the explosion occurred at around midday (local time). situation on the ground is currently calm and protesters’ capabilities At least 2,000 people affiliated to Shia movement Hizbullah on 16 March rallied Lebanon: remain limited, feelings are running peacefully near the UN building in the Riad el-Solh area of the capital Beirut to show high and further clashes are support for anti-government protesters in Bahrain. Participants criticised the governments of possible. Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates for deploying military personnel to the Gulf state.

Saudi Arabia: Around 100 people on 20 March rallied outside the interior ministry in the capital Riyadh amid tight security calling for release of activists arrested by the police during recent anti-government protests; during the event, the police detained around 15 demonstrators. Reports indicate that around 2,000 security force personnel and 50 police vehicles had fortified the area prior to the protest, which was organised via social networking websites.

Yemen: At least 45 people were reportedly killed on 18 March when pro-government gunmen opened fire on a protest camp in the capital Sanaa. Most of those killed were shot in the head or neck; several others were reportedly injured. President Ali Abdullah Saleh subsequently declared a state of emergency in a televised address.

long-time confidante of Saleh, could deal deterioration in the security environment; In-depth a decisive blow to the president; much there have been worrying signs in recent of the army is reportedly loyal to Ahmar days of the potential for violent clashes. and could now side with the opposition. If Saleh does not step down of his own However, other key military units, many accord, he may be forced to resort to of which are commanded by relatives of more widespread violence to retain his Saleh, remain loyal to the president. tenuous grip on power. Saleh is rapidly haemorrhaging support In the event that Saleh’s opponents and the prospects for his survival appear manage to unseat him, the prospects YEMEN increasingly precarious. Tribal allegiances for an orderly transition to democracy Three senior army generals on 21 March are particularly important in Yemen and would remain slender. The country’s defected from the government, declaring this latest loss of support could prove institutions are extremely weak, while the their support for the opposition and crucial; all three generals are members mainstream opposition does not have reportedly positioning their units in the of the Hashid. However, other elements particularly strong democratic credentials. centre of Sanaa to protect protesters. of the confederation, as well as other The young activists who have been The development followed a wave groups, remain loyal to Saleh, indicating the driving force behind the protests of defections from the government, that Saleh’s departure, while apparently would also struggle to stand up to tribal including elements of the key Hashid increasingly likely, is not inevitable. interests. tribal confederation. The divided nature of the army, as well as The defection of leading generals, divisions among tribes that remain loyal including Maj-Gen Ali Mohsen Ahmar, a to Saleh, raises the prospect of a rapid

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