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The Impact of Arab Spring Throughout the Middle East and North Africa

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The Impact of Arab Spring Throughout the Middle East and North Africa A MODEL OF REGIME CHANGE: THE IMPACT OF ARAB SPRING THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts By OMAR KHALFAN BIZURU BA, Al Azhar University, Egypt, 1996 MA, Institute of Arab Research and Studies, Egypt, 1998 Ph.D. Nkumba University, Uganda, 2019 2021 Wright State University WRIGHT STATE UNIVERSITY GRADUATE SCHOOL April 21st, 2021 I HEREBY RECOMMEND THAT THE THESIS PREPARED UNDER MY SUPERVISION BY Omar Khalfan Bizuru ENTITLED A Model of Regime Change: The Impact of Arab Spring Throughout the Middle East and North Africa BE ACCEPTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF Master of Arts. Vaughn Shannon, Ph.D. Thesis Director Laura M. Luehrmann, Ph.D. Director, Master of Arts Program in International and Comparative Politics Committee on Final Examination: _________________________________ Vaughn Shannon, Ph.D. School of Public and International Affairs ___________________________________ Liam Anderson, Ph.D. School of Public and International Affairs ___________________________________ Awad Halabi, Ph.D. Department of History ___________________________________ Barry Milligan, Ph.D. Vice Provost for Academic Affairs Dean of the Graduate School ABSTRACT Bizuru, Omar Khalfan, M.A., International and Comparative Politics Graduate Program, School of Public and International Affairs, Wright State University, 2021. A Model of Regime Change: The Impact of the Arab Spring Throughout the Middle East and North Africa. This study examined the catalysts for social movements around the globe; specifically, why and how the Arab Spring uprisings led to regime change in Tunisia, why they transformed into civil war in some countries of the Middle East and North Africa (Syria), and why they did not lead to significant change at all in other places (Bahrain). The overall results of the study confirmed that political and socio-economic grievances caused the Arab uprisings in Tunisia, Bahrain, and Syria. Tunisian protesters succeeded in regime change because of a united and structured social movement leading to an effective transitional democracy in the country, whereas Syria and Bahrain used their coercive apparatus, with the help of foreign intervention, to suppress demonstrators. Thus, on the Syrian side, protests transformed into civil war. Keywords: Arab Spring; Bahrain; Middle East and North Africa; Protests; Regime change; Social Movements; Syria; Transition Democracy; Tunisia. iii Table of Contents Chapter One ...................................................................................................................... 1 General introduction ........................................................................................................ 1 Background ..................................................................................................................... 2 Problem statement and research questions ...................................................................... 4 Hypotheses ...................................................................................................................... 5 Assumptions .................................................................................................................... 6 Research design and methodology...................................................................................... 6 Research design ............................................................................................................... 7 Research methodology .................................................................................................... 9 Significance of the study ..................................................................................................... 9 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 11 Chapter Two .................................................................................................................... 13 Theory and literature review ............................................................................................. 13 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 13 The theories of social movements and their conceptual framework ............................. 13 Aggregate psychological theories .............................................................................. 15 The systems/value-consensus theory ......................................................................... 16 The political conflict perspective .............................................................................. 16 Deprivation or relative deprivation theory (DT/RDT) .............................................. 17 Resource mobilization theory (RMT)........................................................................ 18 Political process theory (PPT) ................................................................................... 18 The structural strain theory ........................................................................................ 19 The Arab Spring as an action of social movements ...................................................... 20 iv The Middle East and North Africa region in the aftermath of World War I ................. 23 Great Powers Patronage and their respective influences toward the Middle East and North Africa .................................................................................................................. 25 Structural realism ...................................................................................................... 26 Offensive realism and maximizing power ................................................................. 27 Is International trade conditioned to the stability of the Middle Eastern region? ......... 27 External influences in the Middle East and North Africa region. ................................. 29 Russia and China as the US major challenger at international level ............................. 36 Israeli politics toward its neighboring Middle Eastern countries and its response to the Arab Spring ................................................................................................................... 37 The concept of waves of democratization ..................................................................... 39 Democracy, political and economic incentives in the Middle East and North Africa .. 43 Democratic institutions and other key elements of democracy ..................................... 44 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 50 Chapter Three ................................................................................................................. 52 Bahrain’s historical overview and political governance ................................................... 52 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 52 Power patronage, regional major powers’ ties and rivalries in Bahrain ....................... 57 U.S. military ties with Bahrain and Iranian policies towards Bahrain .......................... 62 Bahraini civil liberties and political rights .................................................................... 63 Political pluralism and participation .......................................................................... 65 Inclusiveness, political rights, and electoral opportunities ........................................ 66 Functioning of government and corruption ............................................................... 66 Freedom of association, CSOs and rights of organizations ....................................... 67 Rule of law, individual rights .................................................................................... 67 v Bahrain’s economy ........................................................................................................ 68 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 71 Chapter Four……………………………………………………………………………73 Syria’s historical political governance .............................................................................. 73 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 73 Sunni and Shia Alawite rivalries ................................................................................... 75 Syrian post independence era ........................................................................................ 77 The reasons for the Syrian uprising and civil war ......................................................... 80 Was the Syrian economic crisis the cause of the Syrian civil war? Are socioeconomic grievances the root cause of the Syrian uprising? ............................................................. 80 Syrian civil liberties and political rights ....................................................................... 81 Functioning of government ....................................................................................... 82 Transparency, freedom, and fairness of elections ..................................................... 83 Political pluralism and participation .........................................................................
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