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Haftar's Calculus for Libya: What Happened, and What Is Next? ICSR Insight by Inga Kristina Trauthig
Haftar's Calculus for Libya: What Happened, and What is Next? ICSR Insight by Inga Kristina Trauthig In recent days, a battle for Tripoli has At the time of writing, fighting is been raging that bears the forlorn ongoing. On Sunday, 8 April, Tripoli’s possibility of regression for Libya as a only functioning civilian airport at Mitiga whole. A military offensive led by was forced to be evacuated as it was General Khalifa Haftar, commander of hit with air strikes attributed to the LNA. the so-called “Libyan National Army” These airstrikes took place the same (LNA) that mostly controls eastern day that the “Tripoli International Fair” Libya, was launched on April 3, to the occurred, signalling the formidable level dismay of much the international of resilience Libyans have attained after community. A few days after the launch eight years of turbulence following of the military campaign by Haftar, Qaddafi’s overthrow. some analysts have already concluded that “Libya is (…) [in] its third civil war since 2011”. The LNA forces first took the town of Gharyan, 100 km south of Tripoli, before advancing to the city’s outskirts. ICSR, Department of War Studies, King’s College London. All rights reserved. Haftar's Calculus for Libya: What Happened, and What is Next? ICSR Insight by Inga Kristina Trauthig What is happening? Haftar had been building his forces in central Libya for months. At the beginning of the year, he claimed to have “taken control” of southern Libya, indicating that he was prepping for an advance on the western part of Libya, the last piece missing. -
The Impact of Oil Exports on Economic Growth – the Case of Libya
Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Faculty of Economics and Management Department of Economics The Impact of oil Exports on Economic Growth – The Case of Libya Doctoral Thesis Author: Mousbah Ahmouda Supervisor: Doc. Ing. Luboš Smutka, Ph.D. 2014 Abstract The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate and measure the relationship between oil exports and economic growth in Libya by using advancement model and utilize Koyck disseminated lag regression technique (Koyck, 1954; Zvi, 1967) to check the relationship between the oil export of Libya and Libyan GDP using annual data over the period of 1980 to 2013. The research focuses on the impacts of oil exports on the economic growth of Libya. Being a developing country, Libya’s GDP is mainly financed by oil rents and export of hydrocarbons. In addition, the research are applied to test the hypothesis of economic growth strategy led by exports. The research is based on the following hypotheses for testing the causality and co- integration between GDP and oil export in Libya as to whether there is bi-directional causality between GDP growth and export, or whether there is unidirectional causality between the two variables or whether there is no causality between GDP and oil export in Libya. Importantly, this research aims at studying the impact of oil export on the economy. Therefore, the relationship of oil export and economic growth for Libya is a major point. Also the research tried to find out the extent and importance of oil exports on the trade, investment, financing of the budget and the government expenditure. -
Africa 1952-1953
SUMMARY OF RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN AFRICA 1952-53 Supplement to World Economic Report UNITED NATIONS UMMARY OF C T ECONOMIC EVE OPME TS IN AF ICA 1952-53 Supplement World Economic Report UNITED NATIONS DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS New York, 1954 E/2582 ST/ECA/26 May 1954 UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION Sal es No.: 1951\..11. C. 3 Price: $U.S. $0.80; 6/- stg.; Sw.fr. 3.00 (or equivalent in other currencies) FOREWDRD This report is issued as a supplement to the World Economic Report, 1952-53, and has been prepared in response to resolution 367 B (XIII) of the Economic and Social Council. It presents a brief analysis of economic trends in Africa, not including Egypt but including the outlying islands in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, on the basis of currently available statistics of trade, production and development plans covering mainly the year 1952 and the first half of 1953, Thus it carries forward the periodic surveys presented in previous years in accordance with resolution 266 (X) and 367 B (XIII), the most recent being lIRecent trends in trade, production and economic development plansll appearing as part II of lIAspects of Economic Development in Africall issued in April 1953 as a supplement to the World Economic Report, 1951-52, The present report, like the previous ones, was prepared in the Division of Economic Stability and Development of the United Nations Department of Economic Affairs. EXPLANATION OF SYMBOLS The following symbols have been used in the tables throughout the report: Three dots ( ... ) indicate that data -
Libya's Fight for Survival
LIBYA’S FIGHT FOR SURVIVAL DEFEATING JIHADIST NETWORKS September 2015 ! ! ! TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD 3 ESSAY ONE COMPETING JIHADIST ORGANISATIONS AND NETWORKS 6 Islamic State, Al-Qaeda, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and Ansar al-Sharia in Libya Stefano Torelli and Arturo Varvelli ESSAY TWO POLITICAL PARTY OR ARMED FACTION? 31 The Future of the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood Valentina Colombo, Giuseppe Dentice and Arturo Varvelli ESSAY THREE MAPPING RADICAL ISLAMIST MILITIAS IN LIBYA 53 Wolfgang Pusztai and Arturo Varvelli ESSAY FOUR THE EXPLOITATION OF MIGRATION ROUTES TO EUROPE 73 Human Trafficking Through Areas of Libya Affected by Fundamentalism Nancy Porsia ABOUT THE AUTHORS 87 BIBLIOGRAPHY 89 2 LIBYA’S FIGHT FOR SURVIVAL DEFEATING JIHADIST NETWORKS LIBYA’S FIGHT FOR SURVIVAL 3 DEFEATING JIHADIST NETWORKS FOREWORD ! ! This publication is a compilation of four different essays, edited by Dr. Arturo Varvelli PhD, which from part of a series of studies undertaken by EFD to analyse the nature and spread of the phenomenon of radicalisation in the European Eastern and Southern neighbourhoods. It focuses on Libya and assesses the current situation on the ground through a number of diverse and varied prisms. It identifies patterns and trends as well as specific local and regional developments in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the situation of radicalisation in post-Ghadaffi Libya and the extent to which this may be contributing to regional as well as international instability Months of acute political turmoil in Libya following the fall of the Qaddafi regime, compounded by a weak national identity as well as legacies from the civil war in 2011 which ended Qaddafi’s 42-year rule, have resulted in Libya becoming a failed state with a strong radical Islamist presence. -
LONCHENA-THESIS-2020.Pdf
FAILED STATES: DEFINING WHAT A FAILED STATES IS AND WHY NOT ALL FAILED STATES AFFECT UNITED STATES NATIONAL SECURITY by Timothy Andrew Lonchena A thesis submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Global Security Studies Baltimore, Maryland May 2020 2020 Timothy Lonchena All rights reserved Abstract: Failed States have been discussed for over the past twenty years since the terrorist attacks of the United States on September 11th, 2001. The American public became even more familiar with the term “failed states” during the Arab Spring movement when several countries in the Middle East and North Africa underwent regime changes. The result of these regime changes was a more violent group of terrorists, such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). This thesis will address how to define failed states to ensure there is an understood baseline when looking to determine if a state could possibly fail. Further, this thesis will examine the on-going debate addressing the question of those who claim failed states can’t be predicted and determine if analytic modeling can be applied to the identification of failed states. The thesis also examines the need to identify “failed states” before they fail and will also discuss the effects certain failed states have directly on United States national security. Given this, the last portion of this paper and argument to be addressed will determine if there are certain failing states that the United States will not provide assistance to, as it is not in the best interest of our national security and that of our allies. -
The Right to Asylum Between Islamic Shari'ah And
The Right to Asylum between Islamic Shari’ah and International Refugee Law A Comparative Study Prof. Ahmed Abou-El-Wafa Produced and Printed by Printing Press of Naif Arab University for Security Sciences Riyadh - 2009 (1430 H.) The Right to Asylum between Islamic Shari’ah and International Refugee Law A Comparative Study Prof. Ahmed Abou-El-Wafa Riyadh - 2009 (1430 H.) “Those who believed and emigrated, and strove in the cause of GOD, as well as those who hosted them and gave them refuge, and supported them, these are the true believers. They have deserved forgiveness and a generous recompense.” (Quranic Surat al-Anfal, "The Spoils of War" [Chapter 8 verse 74]) “Everyone has the right to seek and to enjoy in other countries asylum from persecution.” (Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Article 14) "Every man shall have the right, within the framework of the Shari'ah... if persecuted, is entitled to seek asylum in another country. The country of refugee shall be obliged to provide protection to the asylum seeker until his safety has been attained, unless asylum is motivated by committing an act regarded by the Shari'ah as a crime". (Article 12 of the Declaration on Human Rights in Islam) United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Regional Office in the Regional Office in the Arab Republic of Egypt GCC Countries E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Arabic Website: English Website: www.unhcr.org.eg www.unhcr.org First Edition 2009 This book is written, on behalf of UNHCR by Prof. Dr. Ahmed Abou-El-Wafa, Chief of the Department of Public International Law, Faculty of Law, Cairo University. -
United Nations A/HRC/17/44
United Nations A/HRC/17/44 General Assembly Distr.: General 12 January 2012 Original: English Human Rights Council Seventeenth session Agenda item 4 Human rights situation that require the Council’s attention Report of the International Commission of Inquiry to investigate all alleged violations of international human rights law in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya* Summary Pursuant to Human Rights Council resolution S-15/1 of 25 February 2011, entitled “Situation of human rights in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya”, the President of the Human Rights Council established the International Commission of Inquiry, and appointed M. Cherif Bassiouni as the Chairperson of the Commission, and Asma Khader and Philippe Kirsch as the two other members. In paragraph 11 of resolution S-15/1, the Human Rights Council requested the Commission to investigate all alleged violations of international human rights law in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, to establish the facts and circumstances of such violations and of the crimes perpetrated and, where possible, to identify those responsible, to make recommendations, in particular, on accountability measures, all with a view to ensuring that those individuals responsible are held accountable. The Commission decided to consider actions by all parties that might have constituted human rights violations throughout Libya. It also considered violations committed before, during and after the demonstrations witnessed in a number of cities in the country in February 2011. In the light of the armed conflict that developed in late February 2011 in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya and continued during the Commission‟s operations, the Commission looked into both violations of international human rights law and relevant provisions of international humanitarian law, the lex specialis that applies during armed conflict. -
Gaddafi Supporters Since 2011
Country Policy and Information Note Libya: Actual or perceived supporters of former President Gaddafi Version 3.0 April 2019 Preface Purpose This note provides country of origin information (COI) and analysis of COI for use by Home Office decision makers handling particular types of protection and human rights claims (as set out in the basis of claim section). It is not intended to be an exhaustive survey of a particular subject or theme. It is split into two main sections: (1) analysis and assessment of COI and other evidence; and (2) COI. These are explained in more detail below. Assessment This section analyses the evidence relevant to this note – i.e. the COI section; refugee/human rights laws and policies; and applicable caselaw – by describing this and its inter-relationships, and provides an assessment on whether, in general: • A person is reasonably likely to face a real risk of persecution or serious harm • A person is able to obtain protection from the state (or quasi state bodies) • A person is reasonably able to relocate within a country or territory • Claims are likely to justify granting asylum, humanitarian protection or other form of leave, and • If a claim is refused, it is likely or unlikely to be certifiable as ‘clearly unfounded’ under section 94 of the Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002. Decision makers must, however, still consider all claims on an individual basis, taking into account each case’s specific facts. Country of origin information The country information in this note has been carefully selected in accordance with the general principles of COI research as set out in the Common EU [European Union] Guidelines for Processing Country of Origin Information (COI), dated April 2008, and the Austrian Centre for Country of Origin and Asylum Research and Documentation’s (ACCORD), Researching Country Origin Information – Training Manual, 2013. -
A Strategy for Success in Libya
A Strategy for Success in Libya Emily Estelle NOVEMBER 2017 A Strategy for Success in Libya Emily Estelle NOVEMBER 2017 AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE © 2017 by the American Enterprise Institute. All rights reserved. The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, 501(c)(3) educational organization and does not take institutional positions on any issues. The views expressed here are those of the author(s). Contents Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................1 Why the US Must Act in Libya Now ............................................................................................................................1 Wrong Problem, Wrong Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 2 What to Do ........................................................................................................................................................................ 2 Reframing US Policy in Libya .................................................................................................. 5 America’s Opportunity in Libya ................................................................................................................................. 6 The US Approach in Libya ............................................................................................................................................ 6 The Current Situation -
After Gaddafi 01 0 0.Pdf
Benghazi in an individual capacity and the group it- ures such as Zahi Mogherbi and Amal al-Obeidi. They self does not seem to be reforming. Al-Qaeda in the found an echo in the administrative elites, which, al- Islamic Maghreb has also been cited as a potential though they may have served the regime for years, spoiler in Libya. In fact, an early attempt to infiltrate did not necessarily accept its values or projects. Both the country was foiled and since then the group has groups represent an essential resource for the future, been taking arms and weapons out of Libya instead. and will certainly take part in a future government. It is unlikely to play any role at all. Scenarios for the future The position of the Union of Free Officers is unknown and, although they may form a pressure group, their membership is elderly and many of them – such as the Three scenarios have been proposed for Libya in the rijal al-khima (‘the men of the tent’ – Colonel Gaddafi’s future: (1) the Gaddafi regime is restored to power; closest confidants) – too compromised by their as- (2) Libya becomes a failing state; and (3) some kind sociation with the Gaddafi regime. The exiled groups of pluralistic government emerges in a reunified state. will undoubtedly seek roles in any new regime but The possibility that Libya remains, as at present, a they suffer from the fact that they have been abroad divided state between East and West has been ex- for up to thirty years or more. -
Dissenting Opinion of Judge Sette-Camara
DISSENTING OPINION OF JUDGE SETTE-CAMARA 1 regret that 1 have been unable to agree with the Court's majority in the present Judgment in its appraisal of the facts, in its reasoning and in its conclusions, and therefore feel under the obligation to explain why 1 see this case differently. The disputed zone is the so-called Libya-Chad borderlands, bounded to the north-east by the east-south-east line of the Anglo-French Conven- tion of 8 September 1919, to the south by the 15" north latitude parallel, to the West by the 24" E meridian and to the east by the 16" E meridian. It covers an area of some 530,000 km' and encompasses the Borkou- Ounianga, the Ennedi and the Tibesti, what Chad refers to as the BET (excluding northern Kanem). The population of the area is under 100,000, compared with Chad's population of some 5.4 million, including the BET. The area contains 2 per cent of Chadian local population and it is a poor, bare and inhospitable region. In spite of the desertic nature of this zone, that we shall for conven- terra nullius. ience continue to cal1 the borderlands. it was never a , ouen. to occupation according to international law. The two Parties concur as to that, and echo herein the analogous finding of the Court in the Western Sahara case. The land was occupied by local indigenous tribes, confed- erations of tribes, often organized under the Senoussi Order. Further- more, it was under the distant and laxly exercised sovereignty of the Ottoman Empire, which marked its presence by delegation of authority to local people. -
Devising New European Policies to Face the Arab Spring
Papers presented 1 to Conference I and II on Thinking Out of the Box: Devising New European Policies to Face the Arab Spring Edited by: Maria do Céu Pinto Lisboa 2014 With the support of the LLP of the European Union 2 Table of Contents Introduction 4 EU´s Policy Responses: Exploring the Progress and Shortcomings 6 The EU “Paradigmatic Policy Change” in Light of the Arab Spring: A Critical Exploration of the “Black Box” 7 Iole Fontana Assessing European Mediterranean Policy: Success Rather than Failure 18 Marie-Luise Heinrich-Merchergui, Temime Mechergui, and Gerhard Wegner Searching For A “EU Foreign Policy” during the Arab Spring – Member States’ Branding Practices in Libya in the Absence of a Common Position 41 Inez Weitershausen The EU Attempts at Increasing the Efficiency of its Democratization Efforts in the Mediterranean Region in the Aftermath of the Arab Spring 53 Anastasiia Kudlenko The Fall of Authoritarianism and the New Actors in the Arab World 62 The Arab Uprisings and its Impact on Islamist actors 63 Sandra L. Costa The Arab Uprisings through the Eyes of Young Arabs in Europe 75 Valeria Rosato and Pina Sodano Social Networking Websites and Collective Action in the Arab Spring. Case study: Bahrain 85 Seyed Hossein Zarhani The Contradictory Position of the EU towards Political Islam and the New Rapprochement to Islamist Governments 100 Sergio Castaño Riaño THE NEW SECURITY AND GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT 110 3 Lebanon and the “Arab Spring” 111 Alessandra Frusciante Sectarianism and State Building in Lebanon and Syria 116 Bilal Hamade Civil-Military Relations in North African Countries and Their Challenges 126 Mădălin-Bogdan Răpan Turkey’s Potential Role for the EU’s Approach towards the Arab Spring: Benefits and Limitations 139 Sercan Pekel Analyzing the Domestic and International Conflict in Syria: Are There Any Useful Lessons from Political Science? 146 Jörg Michael Dostal Migration Flows and the Mediterranean Sea.