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The Impact of Oil Exports on Economic Growth – the Case of Libya

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The Impact of Oil Exports on Economic Growth – the Case of Libya Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Faculty of Economics and Management Department of Economics The Impact of oil Exports on Economic Growth – The Case of Libya Doctoral Thesis Author: Mousbah Ahmouda Supervisor: Doc. Ing. Luboš Smutka, Ph.D. 2014 Abstract The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate and measure the relationship between oil exports and economic growth in Libya by using advancement model and utilize Koyck disseminated lag regression technique (Koyck, 1954; Zvi, 1967) to check the relationship between the oil export of Libya and Libyan GDP using annual data over the period of 1980 to 2013. The research focuses on the impacts of oil exports on the economic growth of Libya. Being a developing country, Libya’s GDP is mainly financed by oil rents and export of hydrocarbons. In addition, the research are applied to test the hypothesis of economic growth strategy led by exports. The research is based on the following hypotheses for testing the causality and co- integration between GDP and oil export in Libya as to whether there is bi-directional causality between GDP growth and export, or whether there is unidirectional causality between the two variables or whether there is no causality between GDP and oil export in Libya. Importantly, this research aims at studying the impact of oil export on the economy. Therefore, the relationship of oil export and economic growth for Libya is a major point. Also the research tried to find out the extent and importance of oil exports on the trade, investment, financing of the budget and the government expenditure. By conducting this research, there will be an attempt to investigate the positive and negative impacts of oil exports in Libya in terms of economic sustainability and development. Hence, in view of this, we tried to research on how oil export sector have contributed to economic growth in Libya. From the analysis, it can be concluded that oil industry has an imperatively significant role in Libya. Its economy entirely relies on this sector. Oil industry is playing a significant part in progress of the nation. It is the basic revenue source of Libya. Libyan GDP has profited from opportunities produced by increase in the oil exports. Nevertheless, the lagged impacts are balanced by the existing period contributions that could recommend that the investment openings produced are not fully subjugated. The relation between exports and GDP in the constant prices, however allowing for improvements in the terms of trade, suggests that the export coefficient is highly significant in all periods. Conversely, the lagged GDP variable (presenting all the lagged exports via the Koyck geometrically decreasing weight I assumption) was not significant in any period which may suggest a lack of investment opportunities in all periods. It is obvious that there is significant relationship between oil export and economic growth as can be seen from the result obtained and the variables respectively. Key Words: Oil Export, Economic Growth, Trade, Budget, Government Expenditure. Abstrakt: Cílem práce je ur čit a vyhodnotit vztah mezi exportem ropy a ekonomickým r ůstem v Libyi za pomoci Kyockova modelu s rozloženým zpožd ěním s užitím dat pro roky 1980 - 2013. Práce se zam ěř uje za zkoumání vlivu exportu ropy na ekonomický rozvoj Libye. HDP Libye se odvíjí p ředevším od výnos ů z vývozu ropy a uhlohydrát ů. V práci jsou testovány hypotézy spojené s růstem ekonomiky hnané vývozem. Práce je založena na testování hypotéz, které mají potvrdit kauzalitu a provázanost mezi HDP a exportem ropy v Libyi. Význam této práce tedy spo čívá ve studiu dopad ů vývozu ropy na ekonomiku. Práce je rovn ěž zam ěř ena na ur čení rozsahu a významu vývozu ropy na obchod, investice a financování státního rozpo čtu a ve řejných výdaj ů. Na základ ě této práce je tedy možné postihnout negativní a pozitivní dopady exportu ropy v Libyi v rámci udržitelného ekonomického rozvoje. Vzhledem k výše uvedenému je t řeba odpov ědět na otázku, jaký dopad má export ropy na ekonomický r ůst v Libyi. Na základ ě provedené analýzy pak m ůže být konstatováno, že ropný pr ůmysl je velice významný v Libyi, jejíž celá ekonomika se odvíjí od tohoto sektoru. Ropný pr ůmysl se významnou m ěrou podílí na rozvoji zem ě. Zpožd ěné dopady této závislosti na rop ě jsou vyvažovány sou časnými p řínosy, nicmén ě stávající možnosti investic nejsou zcela využité. Koeficienty potvrzující vztah mezi HDP a exportem ve stálých cenách vykazovaly významnost ve všech sledovaných obdobích, a to i přes prostor ke zlepšení podmínek pro obchod. Naopak, zpožd ěné HDP (p ředstavující zpožd ěný export na základ ě Kyockový geometrický klesajících vah) nebylo shledáno jako významné v žádném sledovaném období, což m ůže poukazovat na nedostatek investi čních p říležitostí. Je z řejmé, že zde existuje silný vztah mezi vývozem ropy a ekonomickým r ůstem, který je patrný ze získaných výsledk ů a parametr ů. Klí čová slova: Vývoz ropy, ekonomický r ůst, obchod, rozpo čet, vládní výdaje II Acknowledgements I would like to say thanks my supervisor doc. Ing. Lubos Smutka, Ph.D., at Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, who has been essential in supporting me through this research, encouraging me through the problems I faced throughout the research and aggravated me to work hard. III Dedication I dedicate this research to my family for their time, energy, and assistance which was essential to the completion of my study. I would like to thank all of my family who supported me in completing this thesis. I learned about the enthusiasm, energy, and inspiration that one can acquire from achievement of someone else. I hope to perform this research with me long after current study has expanded our understanding of incidental education. IV TABLE OF CONTENTS page Abstract i Acknowledgements iii Dedication iv Table of contents v List of abbreviations viii CHAPTER ONE: (Introduction) 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 problem of the study 5 1.3 Important of the study 8 1.4 Objectives of the study 9 1.5 Hypotheses of the Study 9 1.6 Methodology 10 1.7 Thesis structure 16 CHAPTER TWO: (Review of Literature) 2.1 Introduction 18 2.2 Conceptual Literature 22 2.2.1 The concept of export 22 2.2.2 Crude oil export 22 2.2.3 Types of crude oil export in Libya 22 2.2.4 The concept of economic growth 22 2.2.5 Types of growth 24 2.2.6 Types of gross domestic product 24 2.3 Economic growth th eories 25 2.4 The causality between export and economic growth 26 2.5Literature related to the positive effect of export on economic growth 27 2-6Literature related to disadvantages with Over-reliance on oil exports 29 2-7Literature review on impact of oil exports on trade of oil-producing 31 countries CHAPTER THREE: (Libyan Economy Development Characteristics) 3.1. Introduction 34 3.2 Libya geography and climate 35 3.3 Population 36 V 3.4 Libyan economy before discovering the oil at glance 38 3.5 Libyan economy after discovering the oil 42 3.5.1 Agriculture sector 42 3.5.2 Tourism services sector 44 3.5.3 The energy sector 45 3.5.4 Financial services sector 47 3.5.5 Investment 49 3.5.6 Trade in Libya 51 3.6 The macroeconomic in Libyan economic 53 3.6.1 Libyan gross domestic product GDP 54 3.6.2Goverment Revenue 58 3.6. 3 Government expenditure 61 3.7Exports and Imports 63 3.8 Fiscal Policy 67 3.9 Monetary Policy 70 CHAPTER FOUR: (The Libyan Oil Sector) 4-1-Introduction 73 4-2 oil as a source of the world energy power 74 4.3 History of crude oil and gas industry 75 4.3.1 Oil exploration and discovering 1952-1969 76 4.3.2 The Libyan oil industry Pre-1969 78 4.4 The boom period 80 4.5 Libya’s membership of OPEC 82 4.6 Sanctions against Libya 83 4.7 Contribution of oil industry in Libya 84 4.8 Oil Production in Libya 86 4.9 Oil Export in Libya 90 4.10 Libya’s export Performance 94 4.11 Impact of oil exports on Libya economy 95 4.12 Oil and GDP relationship 96 4.13 Relationship between export and economic growth in Libya 97 VI 4.14 Libyan economy depends on oil exports 98 4-15 Challenges in the oil sector 102 CHAPTER FIVE : (Oil performance and Libyan economy ) 5.1 Oil development 104 5.2 Oil and Libyan macroeconomic 106 5.2.1 Government budget 106 5.2.2 Government expenditure 107 5.2.3 Gross domestic product 108 5.2.4 Trade 109 5.2.5 gross investment 110 5.2.6 Export and current account 111 5.2.7 Exchange rate 111 CHAPTER SIX: (Practical framework and macroeconomic model ) 6.1 Introduction 118 6.2 Impact of Oil export s on Libyan economic growth 119 6.2.1 Rate of growth of Libyan oil export s 119 6.2.2 Relationship between exports and economic growth 122 6.3 Impact of oil exports on trade in the Libyan economy 128 6.4 Impact on exports and imports of goods and services 131 6.4 Impact of oil export on Libyan government budget and government 132 expenditure 6.5 Impact of oil exports on investment 135 CHAPTER SEVEN (Conclusion and Recommendation) 7.1: Conclusion 137 7.2 problem facing Libyan economy 141 7.3 Recommendation 143 References 146 Appendix 1 159 Appendix 2 160 Appendix 3 161 Ap pend ix4 162 VII List of Abbreviations ELG Export-Led Growth GLE Growth Led Export GDP Gross Domestic Products IEA International Energy Agency IMF International Monetary Fund MENA Middle East and North African (MENA) OECD Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD GCC Cooperation Council for the Arab state of the Golf (EEC) European Economic Community ) OECD African Development Bank UNDP United Nation Development Program CIA Central Intelligence Agency Btu British thermal units OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries FTA Foreign Trade Association FDI Foreign direction Investment GAFTA Greater Arab Free Trade Area NBC National Banking Corporation COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa AMU Arab Maghreb Union(AMU VIII CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction The relationship between export growth and economic growth has been a popular subject of debate among development economists.
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