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LONCHENA-THESIS-2020.Pdf FAILED STATES: DEFINING WHAT A FAILED STATES IS AND WHY NOT ALL FAILED STATES AFFECT UNITED STATES NATIONAL SECURITY by Timothy Andrew Lonchena A thesis submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Global Security Studies Baltimore, Maryland May 2020 2020 Timothy Lonchena All rights reserved Abstract: Failed States have been discussed for over the past twenty years since the terrorist attacks of the United States on September 11th, 2001. The American public became even more familiar with the term “failed states” during the Arab Spring movement when several countries in the Middle East and North Africa underwent regime changes. The result of these regime changes was a more violent group of terrorists, such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). This thesis will address how to define failed states to ensure there is an understood baseline when looking to determine if a state could possibly fail. Further, this thesis will examine the on-going debate addressing the question of those who claim failed states can’t be predicted and determine if analytic modeling can be applied to the identification of failed states. The thesis also examines the need to identify “failed states” before they fail and will also discuss the effects certain failed states have directly on United States national security. Given this, the last portion of this paper and argument to be addressed will determine if there are certain failing states that the United States will not provide assistance to, as it is not in the best interest of our national security and that of our allies. Saudi Arabia and Venezuela will be studied throughout the thesis. One is close to failing, if it has not already failed (Venezuela) while another is far from being a failed state (Saudi Arabia). Venezuela is failing, but this failure has had little to no impact on the United States from a national security perspective. However, Saudi Arabia given their importance as a Middle Eastern ally, would never be allowed to fail given the potential security and economic consequences if that were to happen. ii Acknowledgments: This paper would never be possible if it wasn’t for the best parents someone could ask for, they believed this was possible long before I ever could. Thank you to my amazing wife and son who sacrificed their time to allow me to pursue this idea. iii Dedication: To my children, this paper is to show you that a lot of people may tell you that you can’t do something, but if you work really hard and believe in what you are doing, amazing things can happen. iv Table of Contents Abstract: ................................................................................................................................. ii Acknowledgments: ................................................................................................................ iii List of Tables ..........................................................................................................................vii List Of Figures .......................................................................................................................viii Chapter 1 Introduction: ........................................................................................................... 1 Literature Review: .................................................................................................................. 3 Chapter 2: How We Define Failed States Today: ...................................................................... 9 Literature Review: ....................................................................................................................... 10 Data Presentation: ....................................................................................................................... 15 Venezuela .................................................................................................................................... 15 Economy in Venezuela: ................................................................................................................................. 15 Foreign Allies For Venezuela : ....................................................................................................................... 21 Saudi Arabia ................................................................................................................................ 24 Social Climate in Saudi Arabia: ..................................................................................................................... 24 Economy in Saudi Arabia: ............................................................................................................................. 25 Strength of Military and Government in Saudi Arabia: ................................................................................ 27 Foreign Allies for Saudi Arabia:..................................................................................................................... 29 Analysis/Discussion: ............................................................................................................. 31 Venezuela ..................................................................................................................................................... 31 Economy in Venezuela: ................................................................................................................................. 31 Social Climate in Venezuela: ......................................................................................................................... 32 Strength of Military in Venezuela: ................................................................................................................ 32 Foreign Allies Supporting Venezuela: ........................................................................................................... 33 Saudi Arabia ................................................................................................................................ 33 Economy in Saudi Arabia: ............................................................................................................................. 33 Social Climate of Saudi Arabia: ..................................................................................................................... 33 Strength of Military in Saudi Arabia: ............................................................................................................ 34 The Potential for Venezuela to Become a Failed State: .................................................................. 35 The Potential for Saudi Arabia to Become a Failed State: .............................................................. 35 Chapter 3 The Need to Identify Failed States Before They are Going to Fail: .......................... 38 Methodology/Data- Case Studies: ................................................................................................ 38 Fragile State Index Model: ............................................................................................................ 40 Quantitative Data: ........................................................................................................................................ 41 Qualitative Review: ...................................................................................................................................... 41 Data Presentation: ........................................................................................................................................ 42 Analysis/Discussion: ..................................................................................................................................... 43 Venezuela ..................................................................................................................................................... 49 Chapter 4: Direct Effects Failed States have on United States Security .................................. 54 v Examination of Failed States in the Middle East ............................................................................ 58 Syria .............................................................................................................................................................. 58 Yemen........................................................................................................................................................... 62 The United States and its Allies Response to Failed States in Yemen and Syria. .............................. 63 Yemen........................................................................................................................................................... 63 Syria .............................................................................................................................................................. 66 Examination of Failed States in Africa ........................................................................................... 67 Libya ............................................................................................................................................................. 67 Somalia ......................................................................................................................................................... 70 The United States and Its Allies Response to Failed States in Africa. .............................................. 72
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