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Security of the Baltic Sea Region Revisited Amid the Baltic Centenary

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Security of the Baltic Sea Region Revisited amid the Baltic Centenary Security of the Baltic Sea The Latvian Institute of International Affairs is the oldest Latvian think tank specializing in global and regional affairs. LIIA was established in 1992 as an independent research institue with an aim of providing Latvia’s Region Revisited amid decision-makers, experts, and the wider public with analysis, recommendations, and information about important international and regional developments the Baltic Centenary and foreign policy strategies and choices. The Institute’s research has been focused on Euro-Atlantic security, developments in the European Union, relations with Russia, the Eastern Partnership and Central Asia, cooperation with China as well as transport diplomacy and energy security. EDITORS: Andris Sprūds, Māris Andžāns Latvian Institute of International Affairs Pils iela 21, Riga, LV-1050, Republic of Latvia, [email protected], www.liia.lv This project is supported by Āboltiņš Kudors Sokolsky Braw Leuprecht Šešelgyte Conley Lucas Vanaga Daugulis Melino Vilpišauskas Derow Melyantsou Vīķe-Freiberga Felgenhauer Rácz von Hlatky Geffs Rinkēvičs Voyger Howard Sherr Security of the Baltic Sea Region Revisited amid the Baltic Centenary Revisited Security of the Baltic Sea Region The Rīga Conference Papers 2018 Security of the Baltic Sea Region Revisited amid the Baltic Centenary. The Rīga Conference Papers 2018 The Rīga Conference Papers 2018 offer a collection of articles reflecting on the security of the Baltic Sea region amid the Baltic Centenary. Authors from the region and beyond discuss the transforming regional security policies and realities. Particular attention is devoted to the Transatlantic link, as well as the role of Russia in the regional security constellation. Last but not least, issues beyond the traditional regional security challenges are also addressed. Editors: Andris Sprūds, Māris Andžāns Authors: Reinis Āboltiņš, Elisabeth Braw, Heather Conley, Mārtiņš Daugulis, Jayson Derow, Pavel Felgenhauer, Holly Geffs, Glen Howard, Andis Kudors, Christian Leuprecht, Edward Lucas, Matthew Melino, Dzianis Melyantsou, András Rácz, Edgards Rinkēvičs, James Sherr, Joel Sokolsky, Margarita Šešelgyte, Nora Vanaga, Ramūnas Vilpišauskas, Vaira Vīķe-Freiberga, Stéfanie von Hlatky, Mark Voyger Coordinator: Sintija Broka Language editor: Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova Cover design: Mārtiņš Bērziņš Layout: Oskars Stalidzāns The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, any of the sponsors, any governmental or other entity. This project is managed by the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, supported by the Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and NATO Public Diplomacy Division. The Rīga Conference is co-organised by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Latvia. ISBN 978-9934-567-25-4 © Authors of the articles, 2018 UDK 327(474)(062) © Cover design: Mārtiņš Bērziņš, 2018 Se063 © Latvian Institute of International Affairs, 2018 Note by the Director of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs The Latvian Institute of International Affairs and its partners are pleased to offer you a publication of articles on the security developments in the Baltic Sea region as the Baltic states celebrate their Centenary. Rīga Conference Papers 2018 build on the success of previous annual contributions to the Rīga Conference, endeavour to assess changing realities, and outline the prospects for regional security. An outstanding group of distinguished international experts provide their insights on the transforming regional security policies and realities, the Transatlantic link, the role of Russia, as well as on the issues beyond the traditional security challenges. We acknowledge the generous support provided by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Latvia and the NATO Public Diplomacy Division. As this publication demonstrates, solidarity and strong partnerships remain instrumental to successfully navigate times of uncertainty and transform regional security landscapes. We hope you enjoy reading this volume! Andris Sprūds Director, Latvian Institute of International Affairs Content EDGARS RINKĒVIČS Address to the Participants of the Rīga Conference 2018 .....10 VAIRA VĪĶE-FREIBERGA Preface. Baltic Security at the Centenary: Democracies and Modernities . 12 Transforming Regional Security Policies and Realities ANDIS KUDORS Regional Security of the Baltic States: Challenges and Solutions .................................18 NORA VANAGA NATO’s Conventional Deterrence Posture in the Baltics: Strengths and Weaknesses ................................ 31 HEATHER CONLEY, MATTHEW MELINO, HOLLY GEFFS A Need for Greater Air Defence in the Baltic Region .........43 MARGARITA ŠEŠELGYTE Giving CSDP a Chance: a Position of “Pragmatic Scepticism” in Lithuania ........................56 ELISABETH BRAW Germany, the Sleeping Giant of European Defence ..........64 Transatlantic Link and the Baltic Sea Region RAMŪNAS VILPIŠAUSKAS Transatlantic Security and Trade Relations: Implications for the Baltic Sea Region ......................74 GLEN HOWARD Enabling Deterrence: U.S. Security Policy Toward the Baltic ...83 CHRISTIAN LEUPRECHT, JOEL SOKOLSKY, JAYSON DEROW Paying it Forward: Sustaining the Transatlantic Relationship through Canada’s Renewed Commitment to NATO’s eFP ...............................99 STÉFANIE VON HLATKY NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence Battlegroup in Latvia: Canada’s Ticket to Fairer Burden-Sharing in NATO? ..........112 Russia in the Baltic Sea Region and Beyond JAMES SHERR Strategic Restlessness: the Latest Stage of Russian Policy? .......................................124 ANDRÁS RÁCZ The Role of Military Power in Russia’s New Generation Warfare Arsenal in Ukraine and Beyond ...................134 MARK VOYGER Mapping Russian Lawfare as a Pivotal Russian Hybrid Warfare Domain: Implications for the Region and Policy Recommendations ..................146 PAVEL FELGENHAUER The Pros and Cons of a Russian Push into the Baltics. As Seen from Moscow ....................163 DZIANIS MELYANTSOU Evolution of the Belarusian Foreign and Security Policy: from Isolation to a Diplomatic Hub ........................ 174 Beyond the Traditional Regional Security Challenges MĀRTIŅŠ DAUGULIS Returning Strength in Storyline: NATO, Strategic Communication, and Double-faced Narrative of 2018 . .188 REINIS ĀBOLTIŅŠ Prospects of the American Shale Gas and LNG Export to the Baltic States .......................197 EDWARD LUCAS Postface. Security Gap: Reflections on a Turbulent Decade ........................207 Authors ................................................ 217 Address to the Participants of the Rīga Conference 2018 Edgars Rinkēvičs Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Latvia Welcome to Rīga Conference 2018 in our beautiful metropolis of the Baltics – Rīga! Launched in 2006 at the NATO Summit, the Conference has become a meeting point for all those who have the interest to contribute to prosperity and security of the Baltic Sea region. This year is a long awaited year. Latvia alongside with her closest neighbours Estonia and Lithuania is celebrating the Centenary of the statehood. Whatever lessons we learn from this time of national sovereignty, one is clear – to exercise independence is not easy and this is a never ending task. A hundred years` historical experience and memory has strengthened our resolve to ensure that Latvia today and in the future is a trustworthy and a reliable member of the international community. We live in times when a rules-based and predictable international order is getting more and more paramount for the peace, security, and wellbeing of a small or a medium size country. Latvia’s history experience clearly tells that this is a pill against global Hobbesian future. I should note that the first Rīga conference organised in 2006 under the patronage of President Vaira Vīķe-Freiberga was titled “Transforming NATO in a New Global Era”. Transformation is still relevant, as are other questions from the previous gatherings in Riga like “Europe at the Crossroads” or “Europe Whole and Free” pulling and sharing our experiences, judgements and thoughts. The main conclusion from debates in previous Conferences is that Europe and its transatlantic partners must spare no effort and explore every avenue to stay united, to protect our common values and shared interests. It is especially important in modern times when we are faced with growing number of pressures brought by current geopolitical change. 10 By responding to security needs of every NATO ally, the Alliance until now has demonstrated readiness to act and provide its collective defence umbrella irrespective of geography. It has demonstrated that it is guided by a strategic interest to ensure Europe stays whole, free, and at peace and that its doors are open to any nation that is willing and able to contribute to the security of the Euro-Atlantic family. Answering to a changing global geopolitics, NATO allies have started to increase their defence budgets in order to upgrade their military capabilities. Latvia already spends 2% of GDP for her defence needs with a clear emphasis on capability building and permanent readiness to host appropriate size NATO contingents in the Baltic region of NATO. I encourage all Allies to follow our example and increase their defence spending at least to 2% of GDP. This is a way to make the Alliance relevant
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