Leadership Turnovers and Their Electoral Consequences: A Social Democratic Exceptionalism? Zeynep Somer-Topcu* Daniel Weitzel† *Associate Professor, Department of Government, University of Texas at Austin;
[email protected]. †Postdoctoral Researcher, Department of Government, University of Vienna;
[email protected]. Introduction When Martin Schulz was elected as the leader of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) of Germany in March 2017, the media and the public were in awe of him. In the first weeks of the campaign, Schulz helped the battered and beaten SPD to regain confidence, mem- bers, and support in the polls. Initial gains in the polls of over ten percentage points let the Guardian ask if, after three devastating election defeats, “Germany’s Social Democrats [have] found a winner in Martin Schulz?” (Connolly 2017). Others even called the nom- ination of Schulz as the chancellor candidate and party leader “a tectonic shift” and pre- dicted that “Angela Merkel must prepare for a real fight” (Bartsch et al. 2017). Der Spiegel described Schulz as radiating confidence and having a hunger for power, while his prede- cessor Sigmar Gabriel was characterized as a politician who struggles and dithers (Bartsch et al. 2017). It was a change that BBC classified as “an attempt to improve the party’s chances” in the upcoming election (”Germany election” 2019). In March 2017, the scene seemed to be set for an exciting and close election with the party that finally found its stride and was ready to challenge the chancellor, Angela Merkel. Alas, the excitement lasted only a few months, and on the election day in September 2017, the SPD suffered further election losses.