Filipino Public Opinion Bangsamoro Basic Law Mamasapano Incident

The 2011Survey on Good Local Governance

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Founded in 1985, Social Weather Stations is the Philippine’s leading survey research institute on Quality of Life, Public Opinion, and Governance. It deﬁnes its mission as generating new survey data along key social concerns for the three purposes of:

Education: So eyes may see social conditions Conscientization: So hearts may feel social problems Analysis: So minds may understand their solutions

SWS is a private, non-stock, non-profit, and politically non-partisan scientific institute engaged in research, analysis, training, and outreach activities; it is an officially accredited Donee Institution. SWS datasets and publications are available to the public at the SWS Survey Data Library. SWS represents the Philippines in the International Social Survey Programme, the World Values Survey, the Asian Barometer, and other cross-country survey networks.

Filipino Public Opinion on the Bangsamoro Basic Law and the Mamasapano Incident SWS FeB ruary, March and June 2015 SurveyS This publication is produced with support from The Asia Foundation (TAF). The opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Asia Foundation.

No parts of this monograph may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without, without prior permission from SWS.

The Asia Foundation Project Team

Country Representative Steven Rood Senior Program Coordinator Nadine Ragonjan Results and Monitoring Officer Derkie Alfonso Assistant Program Officer Christian Hope Reyes

Social Weather Stations Project Team

Project Director Vladymir Joseph Licudine Survey Consultant Mahar Mangahas SWR Program Manager Christian Michael Entoma Research Assistant Christine Belle Torres Field Manager Germelita M. Caron Data Processing Manager Gerardo A. Sandoval Data Processing Assistant Aileen Montibon Data Processing Assistant Joanne Evangelista

Photo credits

Nadine Ragonjan Karl Grobl BaSulTa Contact Group Col. Romulo Quemado Reynald Ocampo CONTENTS

I. Introduction ii II. Survey Findings 1 A. Effective Means of Dealing with the MILF 1 B. Views on Islam 2 C. Nationwide Disposition Toward the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro 5 (FAB) and the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) Approval of the Proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law 5 Agreement/Disagreement Regarding Some Proposals in the Framework 6 Agreement of the Bangsamoro D. Disposition within the Core Territory of the Bangsamoro Toward the 9 Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) and provisions of the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro E. Knowledge of the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) and Involvement in Meetings/ 12 Consultations on the Proposed BBL Knowledge of the Proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law 12 Extent of Reading Provisions of the Proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law 14 Participation in Meetings/Consultations on the Proposed Bangsamoro Basic 16 Law F. The Mamasapano Incident 17 Trust in Institutions/Groups Investigating the Mamasapano Incident to Give a 17 Fair Decision Regarding the Case Person/Group or Institution Who Should be Held Accountable for the 20 Mamasapano Incident G. Disposition Toward the Moro Islamic Liberation Front 21 Public Trust in the Moro Islamic Liberation Front 21 Sincerity of the Government and Moro Islamic Liberation Front in Following 22 the Provisions of the Signed Peace Agreement On MILF’s Acceptance of the Outcome of the Bangsamoro Elections 26 On the Moro Islamic Liberation Front’s Reliability on Selected Matters Once the 28 Bangsamoro Area is Established On Bangsamoro Representing the Interest of Lumads, Christians and 29 Muslims Whether the Fulfillment of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro 30 Will Curb the Spread of Terrorist Groups in the Country H. Effects of Peace Issues on Satisfaction with the National Administration 32 I. Hope for the Bangsamoro 33 Peace and Development with the New Bangsamoro Government 33 Perceived Benefit of the Peace Agreement with the MILF 35 Hope in the Passage of the Bangsamoro Basic Law Despite the 37 Mamasapano Incident Annexes: A. Survey Background 39 B. Socio-Demographic Profile of Adult Respondents 41 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident I. INTrO duCTION1

One of the dilemmas of peace negotiations is how to balance the need for confidentiality in the give-and-take of reaching a resolution with the need for consultation among stakeholders for the widest possible understanding of any agreement and endorsement of the result. This dilemma holds for consultation with elected officials, religious leaders, security forces, government employees – all of whom are important to a successful outcome of negotiations. And even then we are not sure if they represent ordinary citizens.

Beyond consulting leaders, how can the opinions of ordinary citizens be taken into account? One of the glories of working on social issues in the Philippines is that there is access to a great deal of high-quality data from scientific probability samples. Social Weather Stations has for 30 years regularly provided the public and analysts timely and relevant information on the opinions of citizens. In particular, over the past decade SWS has undertaken a number of special surveys in Mindanao so that citizens’ voices can be heard from that crucial arena for the Philippines’ peace and development.

The relation between individual opinions about public issues as aggregated in surveys and political outcomes can be a tricky one. For instance, in the 1982 Barangay Elections, I did a survey with the standard question, “if the election were held today, who would you vote for?” In the mountains of Northern Luzon, the Cordillera, where traditional indigenous culture is still strong, I frequently got the response, “I don’t know – the elders haven’t told us yet who to vote for.”

There are lots of further questions embedded in this topic, such as: is there such a thing as “public opinion” as a whole, rather than just a summation or average of individuals’ opinions? What is the relation between opinions expressed in an interview situation and those expressed on the street or in coffee houses? What is the relation between verbal opinions and actual actions of the individual?

This line of inquiry is particularly acute when dealing with organized political movements. Father Conrado Balweg, leader of the Cordillera People’s Liberation Army (CPLA), told me while I was preparing to do a survey on Autonomy for the Cordillera in 1987 (supported by a grant from The Asia Foundation to the University of the Philippines Baguio’s Cordillera Studies Center) that I was wasting my time – what mattered was the revolutionary analysis and action of the CPLA. At least in this case he was clearly mostly wrong, since Autonomy for the Cordillera that the CPLA has had (until now) as the centerpiece of its political platform depended on ratification in a plebiscite -- which ratification has failed twice thus far.

Since small numbers of activists are able to cause internal wars, the relationship in conflict between mass opinion and political outcomes can be particularly problematic. This ability of a few to carry on fighting is one of the reasons why so many of the sub-national conflicts we seeareso long-lasting. In Afghanistan,2 Southern Thailand,3 as well as in Mindanao, The Asia Foundation conducts sample surveys to get people’s opinions, and we wish to make them useful for improving development as well as being scientifically sound.

Polling can be seen as part of building an “inclusive enough” coalition for a peace settlement. The concept comes from the 2011 World Development Report4 and has been suggested for the GPH-MILF peace process. The notion that many officials may have that it is difficult to sell Mindanao peace to the average Filipino can be pernicious – better to ask the citizenry and then transmit that information to the political class. Of course, particular leaders of influence need to be involved: to gauge their reaction to the views of citizens, what they think about particular issues in the negotiations, and how consultations can improve a peace outcome. Both the government and the MILF have been assiduously talking to a wide variety of stakeholders in Mindanao and throughout the country.Negotiators and others involved in peace processes need not slavishly follow public opinion, but it is indeed best to take it into account.

1 Adapted in part from Steven Rood, “Polling for Peace in the Philippines” (InAsia blog of The Asia Foundation; May 30, 2012) http://asiafoundation.org/in-asia/2012/05/30/polling-for-peace-in-the-philippines/ 2 http://asiafoundation.org/publications/pdf/989 3 http://asiafoundation.org/publications/pdf/820 4 http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDRS/Resources/WDR2011_Full_Text.pdf ii Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

This particular publication comes at a crucial time in the peace process. The last five years saw both the government of the Philippines and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) take major steps in attaining a peace agreement that would benefit all Filipinos. In 2012, the government of the Philippines and MILF signed the initial agreement or Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro (FAB) that seeks an expanded autonomous area which will be called Bangsamoro. In 2014, the nation witnessed the signing of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) by the government of the Philippines and MILF and the submission of the draft Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) to Congress leaders in September by President Benigno Aquino III himself. Both houses of Congress had conducted hearings and were targeting passage of the bill in the first quarter of 2015. Then, on January 25 however, a clashin Mamasapano, Maguindanao occurred between the Special Action Force (SAF) of the Philippine National Police and some members of the MILF and Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) because of the SAF mission to kill/arrest two wanted terrorists. This tragic incident was extensively publicized, and caused Congress to postpone the passage of the BBL, thus endangering the timeframe of the peace process between the government and the MILF.

With all of these developments in mind, The Asia Foundation saw the need to continue to record the voice and opinion of Filipinos regarding the still ongoing peace process between the government and the MILF, as it has regularly since 2012. The Asia Foundation supported its longtime partner, Social Weather Stations (SWS) to conduct a special survey in: a) Core Bangsamoro territories and nearby areas in Mindanao; and to b) Implement rider questions in its first quarter nationwide Social Weather Survey, in light of the recent developments in the passage of the Bangsamoro Basic Law and the aftermath of the Mamasapano Incident.

The survey of core Bangsamoro territories and nearby areas had a total sample size of 1,900. The sample in Core Bangsamoro territories consisted of:

• 200 in Sulu, • 200 in Basilan, • 200 in Isabela City, • 200 in Tawi-Tawi, • 100 in Lanao del Sur, • 100 in Maguindanao, • 200 in Cotabato City, • 150 in Lanao del Norte near ARMM,5 and • 150 in North Cotabato near ARMM.6

The Nearby areas, meanwhile, had samples of 100 in Zamboanga City, 150 in the rest of Lanao del Norte, and 150 in the rest of North Cotabato province.

On the other hand, the First Quarter Social Weather Survey had its normal total sample size of 1,200, with 300 people each for Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao. This means that for some questions we can compare what the average Filipino adult throughout the entire country believes, as compared to the opinion of those in the Core Territory of the Bangsamoro.

The study of core Bangsamoro territories and Nearby areas was done from February 22-March 1, 2015 in selected Mindanao areas. The error margin for this survey is ±2% in total, at the 95% confidence level. On the other hand, the First Quarter Social Weather Survey was done from March 20-23, 2015 for the whole Philippines. The error margin for this survey is ±3% at the national level, at the 95% confidence level. Both surveys utilized face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire with visuals. (See Annex A.)

5 The municipalities of Baloi,Munai, Nunungan, Pantar, Tagoloa, and Tangkal in the province of Lanao del Norte. Residents voted in 2001 to join the expanded ARMM but these municipalities did not since the province as a whole did not vote to join. 6 Thirty-nine barangays in the municipalities of Kabacan, Carmen, Aleosan, Pigkawayan, Pikit, and Midsayap that voted for inclusion in the ARMM during the 2001 plebiscite

Social Weather Stations iii Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

iv Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

II. SurvE y FINd INg S

A. Effective Means of Dealing with the MILF

Filipinos prefer peaceful means of dealing with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

The June 2015 Social Weather Survey found that 48% of adult Filipinos said peaceful negotiations are more effective in dealing with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), 19% said military operations are more effective, and the balance of 33% said military operations and peaceful negotiations are equally effective. [Chart 1]

In the wake of the January 2015 Mamasapano incident, those who say peaceful negotiations are more effective declined by 17 points from 62% in March 2014, preference for military operations rose by 11 points from 9%, while those who said military operations and peaceful negotiations are equally effective rose by 6 points from 29%. We see these opinions are basically unchanged in June 2015, after three months.

Still, in 15 national surveys since December 1999, peaceful negotiations have consistently been seen as more effective in dealing with the MILF compared to military operations. Despite the recent drop in March 2015, the ratio of those who prefer peaceful negotiations to those who prefer military operations is 2 to 1. This finding is worth emphasizing the in face of any calls for “all-out war.”

Chart 1

EFFECTIVE MEANS OF DEALING WITH THE MORO ISLAMIC LIBERATION FRONT (MILF), DEC 1999 TO JUN 2015

Peaceful Negotiations 60

48%

40 Both are equally effective 33%

20 Military operations 19%

0 * '99 * '00 * '01 * '02 * '03 * '04 * '05 * '06 * '07 * '08 * '09 * '10 * '11 * '12 * '13 * '14 * '15 *

Q: Ano po sa palagay ninyo ang mas epektibong gawin ng gobyerno ukol sa MILF? (SHOWCARD) MAS EPEKTIBO ANG OPERASYONG MILITAR, MAS EPEKTIBO ANG USAPANG PANGKAPAYAPAAN, MAGKASING EPEKTIBO ANG OPERASYONG MILITAR AT USAPANG PANGKAPAYAPAAN

Social Weather Stations 1 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

B. Views on Islam

Nearly 3 out of 5 Filipinos nationwide have a good opinion of Islam.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that nearly three-fifths (57%) of Filipinos nationwide have a good opinion of Islam, 39% have a not good opinion of Islam, while 4% don’t know/refused/had no answer. [Chart 2]

From September 2005 to October 2008, roughly 2 out of 3 Filipinos nationwide have a good opinion of Islam. Those who have a good opinion of Islam nationwide peaked at 7 out of 10 in September 2010. Nationwide, those with a good opinion of Islam were highest at 71% in September 2010, and lowest at 57% in March 2015.

Chart 2

WHETHER THE RESPONDENT HAS A FAVORABLE OPINION OF ISLAM, PHILIPPINES, SEP 2005 – MAR 2015

Don’t Good Not good know Net* Sep 2005 63 32 5 +31

Sep 2006 66 29 5 +37

Sep 2007 64 31 5 +33

Oct 2008 64 29 7 +35

Sept 2010 71 27 2 +44

Mar 2015 57 39 4 +18

*Net favorable opinion = % Good minus % Not good, correctly rounded. Q. Sa kabuuan, MABUTI o HINDI MABUTI po ba ang inyong pagtingin sa Islam? MABUTI , HINDI MABUTI

2 Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

But this good opinion is least strong in the Visayas.

Interestingly enough, this good opinion is least strong in the Visayas, where it is sometimes negative. In Chart 2, we have computed the net favorable opinion about Islam by subtracting the not good percentage from the good. As an example, for the nationwide data in Chart 2, in March 2015 we would have 57% good minus 39% not good for a positive net favorable rating of +18.

In September 2010, 4 out of 5 in NCR have a good opinion of Islam. On the other hand, the proportion in NCR who have a good opinion of Islam was roughly 7 out of 10 in September 2005 and September 2006, about 2 out of 3 in September 2007 and October 2008, and nearly 3 out of 5 in March 2015. [Chart 3]

In NCR, those with a good opinion of Islam were highest at 80% in September 2010, and lowest at 56% in March 2015.

In September 2010, nearly 3 out of 4 in Balance Luzon have a good opinion of Islam. On the other hand, the proportion in Balance Luzon who have a good opinion of Islam was 7 out of 10 in September 2006 and October 2008, and about 2 out of 3 in September 2005, September 2007 and March 2015.

In Balance Luzon, those with a good opinion of Islam were highest at 73% in September 2010, and lowest at 63% in September 2007.

In September 2007 and September 2010, 1 out of 2 in Visayas have a good opinion of Islam. On the other hand, the proportion in Visayas who have a good opinion of Islam was roughly 2 out of 5 in September 2005, September 2006, October 2008 and March 2015.

In Visayas, those with a good opinion of Islam were highest at 53% in September 2007, and lowest at 37% in September 2006 and March 2015.

In September 2006 and September 2010, 4 out of 5 in Mindanao have a good opinion of Islam. On the other hand, the proportion in Mindanao who have a good opinion of Islam was roughly 3 out of 4 in September 2005, September 2007 and October 2008, and 3 out of 5 in March 2015.

In Mindanao, those with a good opinion of Islam were highest at 81% in September 2006 and September 2010, and lowest at 60% in March 2015.

Chart 3

RESPONDENTS’ NET* FAVORABLE OPINION OF ISLAM, BY AREA, SEP 2005 – MAR 2015

40 Balance Luzon +34 Mindanao +23 20 Philippines +18 NCR +16 0

-20 Visayas -23

-40 * '05 * '06 * '07 * '08 * '09 * '10 * '11 * '12 * '13 * '14 * '15 *

*Net favorable opinion = % Good minus % Not good, correctly rounded. Q. Sa kabuuan, MABUTI o HINDI MABUTI po ba ang inyong pagtingin sa Islam? MABUTI , HINDI MABUTI

Social Weather Stations 3 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

A fifth of Filipinos nationwide have extensive or partial but sufficient knowledge on the teachings and beliefs of Islam.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that 5% of Filipinos nationwide have extensive knowledge on the teachings and beliefs of Islam, 11% have partial but sufficient knowledge, two-fifths (41%) have little knowledge, and the plurality of 43% have none or almost no knowledge. [Chart 4]

Since September 2005, Chart 4 roughly 1 out of 5 Filipinos nationwide EXTENT OF KNOWLEDGE OF THE TEACHINGS AND BELIEFS have extensive/partial but sufficient OF ISLAM, PHILIPPINES, SEP 2005 – MAR 2015 knowledge the teachings and beliefs Extensive Partial but Little No of Islam, while vast majorities have Knowledge sufficient Knowledge Knowledge little/no knowledge of them. Sep 2005 8 13 40 38

Nationwide, those with Sep 2006 6 15 37 42 extensive knowledge on the Sep 2007 6 13 37 43 teachings and beliefs of Islam was highest at 8% in September 2005, Oct 2008 3 11 42 44 and lowest at 3% in October 2008. Sept 2010 7 15 43 34

Nov 2010 7 17 43 32 Those with partial but sufficient knowledge on the Mar 2015 5 11 41 43 teachings and beliefs of Islam Q. Paano po ninyo ilalarawan ang inyong kaalaman tungkol sa mga aral at mga pinaniniwalaan ng relihiyong Islam? Kayo po ba ay may…(SHOWCARD) MALAWAK ANG KAALAMAN, BAHAGYA NGUNIT nationwide were highest at 17% in SAPAT ANG KAALAMAN, KAUNTING KAALAMAN, WALA O HALOS WALANG KAALAMAN November 2010, and lowest at 11% Filipino Public Opinion on Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) 14 in October 2008 and March 2015. and the Mamasapano Incident

Unsurprisingly, knowledge is greatest in Mindanao which is where most Muslims in the Philippines live (inside and outside the Core Territory of the Bangsamoro). In September 2005, September 2006, September 2007, September 2010 and November 2010, roughly 2 out of 5 in Mindanao have extensive/ partial but sufficient knowledge the teachings and beliefs of Islam. On the other hand, the proportion in Mindanao with extensive/partial but sufficient knowledge was 1 out of 4 in March 2015, and 1 out of 5 in October 2008. [Chart 5]

In Mindanao, those with extensive knowledge on the teachings and beliefs of Islam were highest at 25% in September 2005, and lowest at 6% in October 2008.

Those with partial but sufficient knowledge on the teachings and beliefs of Islam in Mindanao were highest at 29% in November 2010, and lowest at 11% in March 2015.

Chart 5

EXTENT OF KNOWLEDGE OF THE TEACHINGS AND BELIEFS OF ISLAM, MINDANAO, SEP 2005 – MAR 2015

Extensive Partial but Little No Knowledge sufficient Knowledge Knowledge Sep 2005 25 12 41 22

Sep 2006 14 26 29 31

Sep 2007 22 17 31 29

Oct 2008 6 15 43 36

Sept 2010 18 20 30 33

Nov 2010 15 29 40 16

Mar 2015 16 11 40 33

Q. Paano po ninyo ilalarawan ang inyong kaalaman tungkol sa mga aral at mga pinaniniwalaan ng relihiyong Islam? Kayo po ba ay may…(SHOWCARD) MALAWAK ANG KAALAMAN, BAHAGYA NGUNIT SAPAT ANG KAALAMAN, KAUNTING KAALAMAN, WALA O HALOS WALANG KAALAMAN

4 Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

C. Nationwide Disposition Toward the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro (FAB) and the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL)

Approval of the Proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law

Only about a fourth of Filipinos nationwide approve of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law; approval of the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro was greater in previous national surveys.

Beginning with the March 2015 Social Weather Survey, which was the first time respondents were able to be asked about the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law or BBL (since it was only submitted to Congress in September 2014), only about a fourth (23% or 24%) of Filipinos nationwide approve of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law or BBL, over a fourth (28%) are undecided, while nearly half (48% or 47%) disapprove of it, for a net approval (% approve minus % disapprove) of -24 or -23 in March and June 2015. [Chart 6]

On the other hand, previous national surveys from December 2012 to June 2014 show that approval of the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro or FAB had been prevailing over disapproval before the Mamasapano Incident of January 2015. Specifically, net approval of the FAB was +22 in both December 2012 and March 2013, rose to +26 in March 2014, and fell to +16 in June 2014. This general approval of the agreement within the peace process was abruptly lost in early 2015.

Disapproval of the proposed BBL in 2015 prevails across all areas of the country. One notable finding is that in Mindanao there are fewer “undecided” respondents than in the rest of the country. This is unsurprising, since residents throughout Mindanao are the most directly affected in the area. [Chart 7]

Chart 6

APPROVAL/DISAPPROVAL OF THE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT ON THE BANGSAMORO (FAB) AND THE PROPOSED BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW (BBL), PHILIPPINES, DEC 2012 TO JUN 2015

Approve Undecided Disapprove Net*

Dec 2012 45 30 23 +22

Mar 2013 39 43 17 +22 Approval of the FAB Mar 2014 49 28 23 +26

Jun 2014 44 29 27 +16

Mar 2015 23 28 48 -24 Approval of the BBL Jun 2015 24 28 47 -23

*Net figures (% Approve minus % Disapprove) correctly rounded.

Chart 7

APPROVAL/DISAPPROVAL OF THE PROPOSED BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW, BY AREA, MAR AND JUN 2015 Approve Undecided Disapprove Net* Mar 2015 23 28 48 -24 Philippines Jun 2015 24 28 47 -23 Mar 2015 23 26 50 -27 NCR Jun 2015 20 32 48 -28 Mar 2015 24 29 45 -21 Bal. Luzon Jun 2015 26 32 41 -15 Mar 2015 15 37 47 -33 Visayas Jun 2015 23 32 45 -22 Mar 2015 28 20 51 -23 Mindanao Jun 2015 23 16 60 -37 *Net figures (% Approve minus % Disapprove) correctly rounded. Q: Kayo po ba ay sang-ayon o hindi sang-ayon sa Bangsamoro Basic Law, ang panukalang batas na bubuo ng bago at mas pinalawak na lugar na awtonomiya na tatawaging Bangsamoro? (TALAGANG SANG-AYON, MEDYO SANG-AYON, HINDI TIYAK KUNG SANG-AYON O HINDI SANG-AYON, MEDYO HINDI SANG-AYON, TALAGANG HINDI SANG-AYON)

Social Weather Stations 5 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

Agreement/Disagreement Regarding Some Proposals in the Framework Agreement of the Bangsamoro

The 2015 nationwide negative shift in sentiments can be detected in disagreement with proposals in the Framework Agreement of the Bangsamoro.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that the previously neutral to positive attitudes have shifted negative with regard to proposals in the Framework Agreement of the Bangsamoro, namely: 1) The dissolution of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao or ARMM which will be replaced by an expanded autonomous area which will be called Bangsamoro, 2) Using Shari’ah not only in divorce and inheritance cases but also in other cases in the new and expanded autonomous area of the Bangsamoro, 3) Having an new police force for the Bangsamoro.

Disagreement with the FAB proposal The dissolution of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao or ARMM which will be replaced by an expanded autonomous area which will be called Bangsamoro prevails nationwide.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that 26% agree with the FAB proposal The dissolution of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao or ARMM which will be replaced by an expanded autonomous area which will be called Bangsamoro, another 26% are undecided, while nearly half (46%) disagree, for a net agreement (% agree minus % disagree) of -19. [Chart 8]

The net agreement of -19 fell by 24 points from +5 in March 2014

Disagreement with the FAB proposal Using Shari’ah not only in divorce and inheritance cases but also in other cases in the new and expanded autonomous area of the Bangsamoro prevails nationwide.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that nearly a fourth (23%) of Filipinos nationwide agree with the FAB proposal Using Shari’ah not only in divorce and inheritance cases but also in other cases in the new and expanded autonomous area of the Bangsamoro, over a fourth (27%) are undecided, while nearly half (46%) disagree, for a net agreement of -23.

Disagreement with the FAB proposal Having a new police force for the Bangsamoro prevails nationwide.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that nearly a third (31%) of Filipinos nationwide agree with the FAB proposal Having a new police force for the Bangsamoro, a fifth (21%) areundecided , while nearly half (46%) disagree, for a net agreement of -16.

The net agreement of -16 fell by 34 points from +18 in March 2014.

Chart 8

OPINION ON SOME PROPOSALS IN THE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT OF THE BANGSAMORO, PHILIPPINES, MAR 2014 AND 2015 Agree Undecided Disagree Net* The dissolution of ARMM which will be Mar 2014 39 26 33 +5 replaced by an expanded autonomous area which will be Mar 2015 26 26 46 called Bangsamoro -19 Using Shari’ah not only in divorce Mar 2014 35 32 31 +4 and inheritance cases but also in other cases in the Mar 2015 23 27 46 -23 Bangsamoro

Having a new Mar 2014 47 23 29 +18 police force for the Bangsamoro Mar 2015 31 21 46 -16

*Net figures (% Agree minus % Disagree) correctly rounded.

6 Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

Some important provisions of the Framework Agreement were only put to the nationwide respondent pool in March 2015, so we don’t have a comparison over time like we do with the previous table. All we have are the March 2015 results, which also tend to show negative opinion. Thus, the following two charts:

Disagreement with the FAB proposal Having own rules for all the government employees in Bangsamoro prevails nationwide.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that a fourth (26%) of Filipinos nationwide agree with the FAB proposal Having own rules for all the government employees in Bangsamoro, 24% are undecided, while nearly half (47%) disagree, for a net agreement of -21. [Chart 9]

Disagreement with the proposal prevails across all areas in March 2015. In particular, net agreement with the proposal is -18 in Balance Luzon, -21 in NCR, -22 in Mindanao and -27 in Visayas.

Chart 9

OPINION ON THE FAB PROPOSAL: Having own rules for all the government employees in Bangsamoro, BY AREA, MAR 2015

Agree Undecided Disagree Net*

Philippines 26 24 47 -21

NCR 30 16 51 -21

Bal. Luzon 28 25 45 -18

Visayas 19 29 46 -27

Mindanao 28 22 50 -22

*Net figures (% Agree minus % Disagree) correctly rounded.

Social Weather Stations 7 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

Disagreement with the FAB proposal The election of a leader who will be called Chief Minister who will be elected by the legislators instead of directly by the voters prevails nationwide. Disagreement is stronger than for the other proposals since Filipino respondents consistently reject a parliamentary system for the country.

One of the key innovations of the peace process with the MILF was that the FAB proposes that the Bangsamoro shall have a “ministerial” or a parliamentary form of government. This is one change that many advocates for autonomous regions in the Philippines have advocated: in the Cordillera the Cordillera Regional Consultative Commission thought that a parliamentary system for a Cordillera Autonomous Region (which has never been instituted) would be more in keeping with indigenous councils of leaders. In negotiations, the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) has long held that a parliamentary system is more in keeping with Muslims’ shura councils. However, it is only in the FAB concluded with the MILF (and the draft BBL) where this provision is found.

The March 2015 Chart 10 Social Weather Survey found that a fifth (21%) of Filipinos OPINION ON THE FAB PROPOSAL: The election of a leader who nationwide agree with the will be called chief minister who will be elected by the legislators FAB proposal The election of a instead of directly by the voters, BY AREA, MAR 2015 leader who will be called Chief Minister who will be elected Agree Undecided Disagree Net* by the legislators instead of Philippines 21 22 55 -34 directly by the voters, 22% are undecided, while over NCR 21 20 58 -37 half (55%) disagree, for a net agreement of -34. [Chart 10] Bal. Luzon 21 23 54 -33

Disagreement with Visayas 17 25 53 -36 the proposal prevails across all areas in March 2015. In Mindanao 25 18 56 -31 particular, net agreement with the proposal is -31 in *Net figures (% Agree minus % Disagree) correctly rounded. Mindanao, -33 in Balance Luzon, -36 in Visayas, and -37 in NCR.

In fact, advocates Chart 11 for nationwide constitutional change have also proposed PREFERRED SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT: PRESIDENTIAL OR a parliamentary system for PARLIAMENTARY?, PHILIPPINES, AUG 1994 TO SEP 2005 the Philippines as a whole. Over the course of ten years, Presidential Parliamentary while proposals for a shift Aug 1994 80 19 from presidential (separation of powers) to a parliamentary Sep 1995 81 18 system were being debated, Social Weather Stations has Jul 1998 87 13 asked about this. And by wide margins respondents prefer Mar 1999 79 21 the presidential system over the parliamentary. This can Mar 2003 77 23 explain why the response Sep 2005 69 28 to this proposal for the Bangsamoro at -34 is more *Don’t know/Can’t say and None not shown. negative than to the other proposals surveyed (-16 to -22): to skepticism about the proposal for the Bangsamoro is added skepticism about the specific proposal on the ministerial form of government. [Chart 11]

8 Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

D. Disposition within the Core Territory of the Bangsamoro Toward the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) and provisions of the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro

As noted in the introduction, a complement to the overall nationwide sample was a set of specific samples throughout the Core Territory of the Bangsamoro. Each province and city had a separate sample to represent them, as did 6 municipalities (grouped together as “Lanao Norte near ARMM”)7 in Lanao del Norte and 39 barangays (grouped together as “Cotabato near ARMM”)8 in North Cotabato.

In this way, we can examine the attitudes of those to whom the Bangsamoro Basic Law is sure to apply (inasmuch as they are to have a plebiscite to see whether they will join in any new Bangsamoro government).

In comparison to the overall nationwide results, in the Core Territories of the Bangsamoro, approval of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law ranges from pluralities to overwhelming majorities.

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that approval of the proposed BBL prevails in BaSulTa areas. In particular, net approval of the proposed BBL is higher in Basilan (+48) and Tawi-Tawi (+30) compared to Sulu (+18) and Isabela City (+18). However, it should be noted that the majority of 56% in Sulu are undecided on the issue, and therefore, the +18 net approval indicates the opinion of the minority. [Chart 12]

To a much greater degree, approval of the proposed BBL prevails in Central Mindanao areas. In particular, net approval of the proposed BBL is highest in Cotabato near ARMM (+91), followed by Lanao del Sur (+86), Maguindanao (+80), Lanao del Norte near ARMM (+77) and Cotabato City (+71).

So, we see that the citizens to whom the BBL will apply directly do indeed approve of it. And a pattern emerges, where Sulu and Isabela City are, while positive, the least strongly positive of all the areas in the Bangsamoro. Tawi-Tawi and the rest of Basilan island are more positive, and then those Core Territories on the mainland of Mindanao are overwhelmingly positive.

Chart 12

APPROVAL OF THE PROPOSED BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW (BBL), PHILIPPINES (MAR 2015) AND CORE TERRITORIES (FEB 2015) Approve Undecided Disapprove Net* Philippines 23 28 48 -24

Sulu 31 56 14 +18 Basilan 59 29 12 +48 Isabela City 38 40 20 +18 Tawi-Tawi 52 26 22 +30 Lanao del Sur 90 6 4 +86 Maguindanao 83 14 3 +80 Cotabato City 76 18 6 +71 LDN near ARMM 83 11 6 +77 Cot. Near ARMM 93 5 2 +91 *Net figures (% Approve minus % Disapprove) correctly rounded. Q: Kayo po ba ay sang-ayon o hindi sang-ayon sa Bangsamoro Basic Law, ang panukalang batas na bubuo ng bago at mas pinalawak na lugar na awtonomiya na tatawaging Bangsamoro? (SHOWCARD) (TALAGANG SANG- AYON, MEDYO SANG-AYON, HINDI TIYAK KUNG SANG-AYON O HINDI SANG-AYON, MEDYO HINDI SANG- AYON, TALAGANG HINDI SANG-AYON)

7 The municipalities grouped together as Lanao Norte near ARMM are Baloi, Munai, Nunungan, Pantar, Tagoloan and Tangcal. 8 The municipalities and barangays grouped together as Cotabato near ARMM are Carmen: Manarapan, Nasapian; Kabacan: Nanga-an, Sanggadong, Simbuhay; Midsayap: Damatulan, Kadigasan, Kadingilan, Kudarangan, Central Labas, Malingao, Olandang, Tugal; Pigkawayan: Balacayon, Lower Baguer, Lower Pangangkalan, Patot; Pikit: Bagoaingud, Balatican, Balong, Balungis, Batulawan, Buliok, Gokoton, Kabasalan, Lagunde; and Aleosan: Dunguan, Lower Mingading, Tapodoc, Upper Mingading.

Social Weather Stations 9 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that pluralities to majorities in Core territories agree with seven proposals in the Framework Agreement of the Bangsamoro, namely:

1) The dissolution of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao or ARMM which will be replaced by an expanded autonomous area which will be called Bangsamoro, 2) Using Shari’ah not only in divorce and inheritance cases but also in other cases in the new and expanded autonomous area of the Bangsamoro, 3) Implementing an own banking system like Islamic banking, 4) Having own rules for all the government employees in Bangsamoro, 5) The election of a leader who will be called Chief Minister who will be elected by the legislators instead of directly by the voters, 6) Having an new police force for the Bangsamoro, and 7) Reducing the number of Armed Forces of the Philippines or AFP soldiers in the Bangsamoro area.

We see this overall result in the following table, which contain the net results (computed as in Chart 12) for each of the separately sampled parts of the Core Territory [Table 1]. This table demonstrates two things. First, opinion in the Core Territories are much more favorable than is opinion nationwide (the nationwide results are included in the leftmost column for comparison’s sake). Second, the same pattern noted in overall approval of the Bangsamoro Basic Law is found in approval for various proposals from the framework:

• Sulu and Isabela City, though positive, are the least so; • Tawi-Tawi and Basilan are more positive; and • Areas of the Core Territories on mainland Mindanao are overwhelmingly positive.

Table 1

NET AGREEMENT WITH FAB PROPOSALS: PH (MAR 2015) AND CORE TERRITORIES (FEB 2015) Tawi- Basi- Is LD LN Cot Cot N PH Tawi Sulu lan City Sur ARMM City Mag ARMM The dissolution of ARMM which will be replaced by an expanded autonomous area called Bangsamoro -19 +72 +44 +60 +42 +83 +68 +82 +84 +84 Using Shari’ah not only in divorce and inheritance cases but also in other cases in the Bangsamoro -23 +59 +43 +52 +40 +74 +74 +80 +84 +76 Implementing an own banking system like Islamic banking NA +60 +26 +50 +32 +78 +73 +70 +80 +77 Having own rules for all the government employees in Bangsamoro -21 +52 +24 +51 +34 +78 +69 +68 +75 +73 The election of a Chief Minister by legislators instead of directly by voters -34 +50 +28 +44 +23 +72 +60 +45 +75 +76 Having a new police force for the Bangsamoro -16 +40 +24 +48 +20 +81 +77 +66 +72 +78 Reducing the number of AFP soldiers in the Bangsamoro area NA +34 +20 +44 +40 +64 +60 +62 +76 +77 *Net figures (% Agree minus % Disagree) correctly rounded.

Here in one table we see a range of proposals from the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro that are generally endorsed by residents of the Core Territory, in contrast to the skepticism of the nationwide public that we previous saw in Charts 8, 9, and 10.

A fundamental issue in the crafting of the Framework Agreement was the relationship between the existing Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao and any political arrangement that would come from agreements reached between the MILF and the government. President Aquino himself had

10 Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS pronounced the ARMM a “failed experiment,” and the MILF said that they had repeatedly rejected being anointed heads of the ARMM as part of a settlement. Thus, it was agreed that the ARMM would be abolished and replaced by a new entity to be established under a Bangsamoro Basic Law. As we’ve seen, when asked about this after the January 25 Mamasapano incident, the general Filipino response is negative. Here, in Table 1, we see that those actually in the ARMM (or surrounded by it in the case of Isabela and Cotabato cities) have a positive response.

Since 1977 there has been in effect a Code of Muslim Personal Law (PD 1083) for the Philippines. In negotiations it was agreed that part of the establishment of the Bangsamoro could be the expansion of the jurisdiction of such Muslim law to encompass commercial and criminal subjects. As we see, while this is negatively viewed for the Philippines as a whole, within the Core territories respondents tend to have a favorable response.

Closely connected to the issue of Shari’ah Law in the eyes of Muslims is the issue of Islamic Banking. Muslims are not allowed to accept or pay interest (as in mainstream savings accounts or loans) and should shun companies engaging in anything having to do with alcohol or pork (among other things). There is only one Islamic Bank in the Philippines, Al-Amanah Bank, and negotiators propose to institute a broader system to increase access by Muslims to Islamic Finance. This question was not asked of the broader nationwide public, but we can see that it is endorsed throughout the Core Territories of the Bangsamoro.

One of the controversial questions in discussions of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law is the provision, derived from the FAB, is that “The Bangsamoro Government shall develop and administer a professional civil service corps… without prejudice to the power, authority, and duty of the national Civil Service Commission.” This is one of the provisions that is often cited in legislative debates as being unconstitutional, although the Citizens’ Peace Council9 did not feel it was unconstitutional. In any case, in a general survey of ordinary citizens, the question put was whether they agreed with “Having own rules for all the government employees in Bangsamoro.”As we have seen, nationwide the responses are negative, but in the Core territories of the Bangsamoro the response is positive.

Noted above (Chart 10) was that the opinion of the general public is negative about having a Chief Minister elected by legislators instead of directly by the citizens. This is connected to a general nationwide disapproval of the parliamentary form of government. Yet, as with all the proposals from the FAB being discussed, respondents in the Core territories of the Bangsamoro do approve of this proposal.

One of the last provisions of the FAB to be agreed upon was for a police force for the Bangsamoro. In drafts of the Basic Law, it is clear that such a police force is part of the overall Philippine National Police. We saw in Chart 8 that while nationwide opinion had in the past been favorable to this provision, after the Mamasapano tragedy involving the Special Action Forces of the PNP, opinion turned negative in 2015. However, in Core territories of the Bangsamoro, we see that the opinion is positive throughout.

Finally, with regard to the Armed Forces of the Philippines, the FAB does not actually call for a reduction in the number of AFP troops in the Bangsamoro, but does call for “redeployment.” When asked about reduction in numbers, the Philippine public nationwide is negative. In the Core territories, by contrast, the opinion is positive. However, it can be noted that in several areas (Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, and Lanao del Sur) this is the provision that is least positively received. Though still agreeing with reducing the AFP presence in the region, agreement is less strong than for other provisions of the Bangsamoro.

9 On 27 March 2015, exactly a year after the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) was signed by the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Philippine Government, President Benigno S. Aquino III invited five citizens known for their wisdom and integrity to take a close look at the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) now pending in Congress. Manila Archbishop Luis Antonio Cardinal Tagle, former Chief Justice Hilario Davide, Jr, businessman Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala, former Philippine Ambassador to the Holy See and Malta Howard Dee, and founder of Teach Peace, Build Peace Movement Bai Rohaniza Sumndad-Usman accepted the invitation and gathered 27 other responsible and respected leaders from all sectors of society. There were Christians, Muslims, Indigenous Peoples, religious leaders for various faiths, civil society representatives, businessmen, academics, researchers, and youth. Resource persons were also invited. Through cluster meetings and a National Peace Summit, they independently looked into the provisions of the BBL and offered their collective views and recommendations, each accordingto his/her knowledge, experience, and expertise. According to the Conveners, the summit served as “an avenue for dialogue between and among independent-minded citizens who believe in the importance of understanding the BBL and to discuss its implications for peace and development in our country in a fair and reasonable manner.” – excerpted from the Executive Summary of the Report of the Peace Council on the Bangsamoro Basic Law. http://www. opapp.gov.ph/sites/default/files/peace-council-report-bbl.pdf

Social Weather Stations 11 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

E. Knowledge of the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) and Involvement in Meetings/ Consultations on the Proposed BBL Knowledge of the Proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law

Nearly 1 out of 5 of Filipinos nationwide have extensive/partial but sufficient knowledge of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that a mere 4% of Filipinos nationwide have extensive knowledge of the Bangsamoro Basic Law or BBL, over a tenth (13%) have partial but sufficient knowledge, nearly half (47%) have only a little knowledge, and over a third (36%) have almost nothing or nothing at all. Three months of extensive media coverage of Congressional debates, and some attention to the Peace Council, did not lead to any greater knowledge of the BBL: the June results were essentially the same. [Chart 13]

National surveys from December 2012 to March 2015 show that percentages of those with extensive knowledge of the Framework Agreement of the Bangsamoro or FAB had ranged from only 4% to 6%, while those with partial but sufficient knowledge ranged from 13% to 21%. Those with extensive/ partial but sufficient knowledge of the FAB had declined in June 2014 and March 2015 compared to March 2014.

Meanwhile, previous national surveys in March 2014 and June 2014 show that percentages of those with extensive/partial but sufficient knowledge of the FAB Annexes were near the level of knowledge of the FAB itself. Those with extensive knowledge of the FAB Annexes dropped from 3% to 2%, while those with partial but sufficient knowledge dropped from 20% to 14%.

Within the variations in percentages, it certainly does seem that the public is not overall becoming more familiar with these agreements or proposals resulting from the peace process.

Chart 13

EXTENT OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT ON THE BANGSAMORO (FAB), THE ANNEXES AND THE PROPOSED BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW (BBL), PHILIPPINES, DEC 2012 TO JUN 2015

Partial Extensive but sufficient Only a little Almost none

Dec 2012 5 20 42 32

Mar 2013 5 19 41 35

Knowledge Mar 2014 6 21 45 27 of the FAB Jun 2014 4 16 49 31

Mar 2015 4 13 47 36

Knowledge Mar 2014 3 20 45 33 of the Annexes Jun 2014 2 14 44 40

4 13 47 36 Knowledge Mar 2015 of the BBL Jun 2015 3 16 44 37

12 Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

By area, those with extensive Chart 14 knowledge of the BBL in March 2015 are higher in Mindanao (9%) EXTENT OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE PROPOSED compared to Visayas (3%), NCR BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW (BBL), BY AREA, MAR AND JUN 2015 (2%) and Balance Luzon (2%). Partial Meanwhile, those with partial but Extensive but sufficient Only a little Almost none 4 13 47 36 sufficient knowledge are higher in Mar 2015 Philippines NCR (18%) and Balance Luzon (15%) Jun 2015 3 16 44 37 compared to Visayas (10%) and Mar 2015 2 18 47 33 NCR Mindanao (10%). However, by June Jun 2015 4 26 39 31 of 2015 those in NCR with partial but Mar 2015 2 15 49 34 Bal. Luzon sufficient knowledge has grown to Jun 2015 3 16 46 35 26%, perhaps reflecting the media Mar 2015 3 10 40 47 Visayas coverage available in Metro Manila. Jun 2015 4 14 37 44 Mar 2015 9 10 48 33 Mindanao In the Visayas, consistently Jun 2015 3 13 48 36 higher proportions purport to have Q: Paano po ninyo ilalarawan ang inyong kaalaman tungkol sa panukalang batas na ito? Kayo po ba ay may… (MALAWAK, BAHAGYA NGUNIT SAPAT, KAUNTI LAMANG, HALOS WALA O WALA) na kaalaman? almost no knowledge of the BBL. [Chart 14]

Knowledge of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law is higher in the Core Territories, ranging up to slight majorities having extensive/partial but sufficient knowledge of the proposed law.

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found minorities to slight majorities in Core territories who have extensive/partial but sufficient knowledge of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law or BBL.

The percentage Chart 15 of those with extensive knowledge of the BBL in EXTENT OF KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE PROPOSED BANGSAMORO BaSulTa areas is higher BASIC LAW (BBL), PHILIPPINES (MAR 2015) AND at 11% in Tawi-Tawi, CORE TERRITORIES (FEB 2015) followed closely by 9% Partial Extensive but sufficient Only a little Almost none in Basilan, 8% in Sulu Philippines and 4% in Isabela City. 4 13 47 36 Meanwhile, there are Sulu 8 18 38 35 more with partial but Basilan 9 32 35 23 sufficient knowledge Isabela City 4 30 46 20 of the BBL in Basilan (32%), Isabela City (30%) Tawi-Tawi 11 26 30 32 and Tawi-Tawi (26%) Lanao del Sur 32 20 44 4 compared to Sulu (18%). Maguindanao 5 24 47 24 [Chart 15] Cotabato City 8 26 42 24

On the other LDN near ARMM 11 25 46 19 hand, the percentage Cot. Near ARMM 21 33 41 6 of those with extensive Q: Paano niyo po ilalarawan ang inyong kaalaman tungkol sa panukalang batas na ito? Kayo po ba ay may… knowledge of the BBL in (SHOWCARD) na kaalaman? (MALAWAK, BAHAGYA NGUNIT SAPAT, KAUNTI LAMANG, HALOS WALA O WALA) Central Mindanao areas is highest at 32% in Lanao del Sur, followed by 21% in Cotabato near ARMM, 11% in Lanao del Norte near ARMM, 8% in Cotabato City and 5% in Maguindanao. Meanwhile, there are more with partial but sufficient knowledge of the BBL in Cotabato near ARMM (33%) compared to Cotabato City (26%), Lanao del Norte near ARMM (25%), Maguindanao (24%) and Lanao del Sur (20%).

In sum, while knowledge is more extensive in the Core Territories of the Bangsamoro than it is nationwide, only in a couple of localities do a majority of the respondents have sufficient or extensive knowledge of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law.

Social Weather Stations 13 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

Extent of Reading Provisions of the Proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law

About a fourth of Filipinos nationwide have read all/some of the provisions of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that only 3% of Filipinos nationwide have read all of the provisions of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law or BBL, a fifth (21%) have read some of them, while the majority of three-fourths (76%) have not yet read any of them. [Chart 16]

By area, percentages of those Chart 16 who have read all/some provisions of the proposed BBL in March 2015 EXTENT OF READING THE PROVISIONS OF THE PROPOSED are higher in Balance Luzon (28%) BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW (BBL), BY AREA, MAR AND JUN 2015 and Mindanao (25%) compared to Visayas (19%) and NCR (14%). Only Read all Read some Not yet read any 3 21 76 8% in Mindanao have read all of Mar 2015 Philippines 1 23 76 the provisions of the proposed BBL Jun 2015 14 86 compared to 1% in Balance Luzon, Mar 2015 NCR 1 0.3% in Visayas and none in NCR. Jun 2015 19 79 Mar 2015 1 27 72 Meawhile, over a fourth in Balance Bal. Luzon Luzon (27%) have read some of the Jun 2015 1 23 76 Mar 2015 0.3 19 81 provisions of the proposed BBL Visayas compared to nearly a fifth in Visayas Jun 2015 1 26 73 (19%) and Mindanao (17%) and over Mar 2015 8 17 75 Mindanao a tenth in NCR (14%). But we see Jun 2015 1 23 75 in Slide 56 no increase over time in Q: Tungkol naman po sa mga probisyon sa panukalang Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL), ang mga ito po ba ay inyo nang (NABASA NANG LAHAT, ILAN PA LANG ANG NABASA, WALA PANG NABASA)? reading provisions between March and June 2015.

More in Core territories compared to have read all/some of the provisions of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law.

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that more Filipinos in Core territories compared to the nation as a whole have read all/some of the provisions of the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law.

In BaSulTa areas, the percentage of those who have read all of the provisions of the proposed BBL is higher at 9% in Tawi-Tawi, followed closely by 8% in Basilan, 6% in Isabela City and 4% in Sulu. Meanwhile, there are more who have read some of the provisions of the proposed BBL in Isabela City (42%) and Basilan (39%) compared to Sulu (23%) and Tawi-Tawi (23%). Chart 17 [Chart 17] EXTENT OF READING THE PROVISIONS OF THE PROPOSED BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW (BBL), PHILIPPINES (MAR 2015) AND In Central Mindanao areas, CORE TERRITORIES (FEB 2015) the percentage of those who have Read all Read some Not yet read any read all of the provisions of the Philippines 3 21 76 proposed BBL is highest at 22% in 23 Lanao del Sur, followed distantly by Sulu 4 73 39 8% in Cotabato near ARMM, 4% in Basilan 8 53 Isabela City 42 Cotabato City, 3% in Lanao del Norte 6 51 Tawi-Tawi near ARMM and 2% in Maguindanao. 9 23 69 Meanwhile, there are more who Lanao del Sur 22 46 32 have read some of the provisions of Maguindanao 2 31 67 the proposed BBL in Cotabato near Cotabato City 4 41 56 ARMM (52%), Lanao del Sur (46%) LDN near ARMM 3 31 65 and Cotabato City (41%) compared Cot. Near ARMM 8 52 40 Q: Tungkol naman po sa mga probisyon sa panukalang Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL), ang mga ito po ba ay to Maguindanao (31%) and Lanao del inyo nang (READ OUT) NABASA NANG LAHAT, ILAN PA LANG ANG NABASA, WALA PANG NABASA? Norte near ARMM (31%).

14 Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

Nearby areas to the Core Territory resemble the nationwide readership of the proposed law, less readership than the Core territories.

As noted in the Introduction, some areas nearby the Core Territories were also sampled. Residents of those areas are unlikely to become part of the Bangsamoro10 but they will be affected by its establishment and their opinions are important.

We can see that, unlike those in the Core Territories, much smaller percentages in Nearby areas have read all/some of the provisions of the proposed BBL. In particular, those who have read all of the provisions of the proposed BBL is merely 3% in the Rest of Lanao del Norte, 1% in the Rest of Cotabato and none in Zamboanga City. Meanwhile, those who have read some of the provisions of the proposed BBL is 13% in Zamboanga City, 13% in the Rest of Cotabato and 8% in the Rest of Lanao del Norte. [Chart 18]

Chart 18

EXTENT OF READING THE PROVISIONS OF THE PROPOSED BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW (BBL), PHILIPPINES (MAR 2015) AND NEARBY AREAS (FEB 2015)

Read all Read some Not yet read any

Philippines 3 21 76

Zamboanga City 0 13 87

Rest of Lanao Del Norte 3 8 89

Rest of Cotabato Province 1 13 86

Q: Tungkol naman po sa mga probisyon sa panukalang Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL), ang mga ito po ba ay inyo nang (READ OUT) NABASA NANG LAHAT, ILAN PA LANG ANG NABASA, WALA PANG NABASA?

10 Zamboanga City, under Philippine jurisprudence, is not “contiguous” to any part of the Core Territory, so no part of the city is eligible to join the plebiscite establishing the Bangsamoro. Depending on the exact provisions of the law as passed by Congress, some areas of Lanao del Norte (other than the 6 municipalities included in the Core Territory) and some areas of North Cotabato (aside from the 39 barangays included in the Core Territory) may or may not be eligible to petition to join the plebiscite.

Social Weather Stations 15 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

Participation in Meetings/Consultations on the Proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law

More in Central Mindanao areas compared to BaSulTa areas have been to any meeting or consultation regarding the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law.

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that more Filipinos in Central Mindanao areas compared to BaSulTa areas have been to any meeting or consultation regarding the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law.

In BaSulTa areas, the percentage of those who have been to any meeting or consultation regarding the proposed BBL is higher at 16% in Basilan compared to 10% in Isabela City, 6% in Sulu and 6% in Tawi-Tawi. [Chart 19]

On the other hand, larger percentages in Central Mindanao areas have been to any meeting or consultation regarding the proposed BBL. In particular, those who have attended any meeting or consultation are higher at 51% in Lanao del Sur, 45% in Cotabato near ARMM and 40% in Lanao del Norte near ARMM compared to 24% in Cotabato City and 22% in Maguindanao.

Chart 19

EXPERIENCE OF GOING TO ANY MEETING OR CONSULTATION REGARDING THE PROPOSED BANGSAMORO BASIC LAW (BBL), CORE TERRITORIES, FEB 2015 Have attended Have not attended

Sulu 6 90 Basilan 16 83 Isabela City 10 89 Tawi-Tawi 6 92 Lanao del Sur 51 48 Maguindanao 22 78 Cotabato City 24 76 LDN near ARMM 40 60 Cot. near ARMM 45 55

Q: Kayo po ba ay personal nang nakapunta sa kahit na anong pagpupulong o konsultasyon tungkol sa panukalang Bangsamoro Basic Law? NAKAPUNTA NA SA KAHIT NA ANONG PAGPUPULONG O KONSULTASYON, HINID PA NAKAPUNTA SA KAHIT NA ANONG PAGPUPULONG O KONSULTASYON

Interestingly, it is those areas that most approve of the proposed Basic Law that have the highest percentage of respondents who say they have been to meetings or consultations about the law. As often happens in social science, we are not sure whether those who go to meetings are persuaded to approve, or those who already approve are more likely to go to meetings or consultations. In all likelihood, it is a mixture of both effects.

16 Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

F. The Mamasapano Incident

On January 25, 2015, a raid by Special Action Force of the Philippine National Police, aimed at a wanted terrorist known as Marwan, tragically resulted in the deaths of 44 of the Special Action Force, 17 Moro Islamic Liberation Front fighters, and 7 civilians. This event generated enormous coverage in the media, and a number of investigations were launched to understand what happened. In the March survey after some of the reports11 had come out, respondents nationwide were asked about the incident, including their judgment on those undertaking investigations12, and who should be held responsible.

Trust in Institutions/Groups Investigating the Mamasapano Incident to Give a Fair Decision Regarding the Case

In giving a fair decision in their respective investigations of the Mamasapano incident, BOI of the PNP and the Senate are trusted by Filipinos, opinion is mixed toward the House of Representatives, while the MILF is distrusted.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that, in giving a fair decision regarding their respective investigations of the Mamasapano incident, the Board of Inquiry of the PNP and the Senate are trusted by Filipinos, opinion is mixed toward the House of Representatives, while the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is distrusted. [Chart 20]

While this question was only put to those respondents who were aware of the institutions or groups, on this subject 98 or 99 percent are indeed aware. This is testimony to the widespread media attention given to the incident.

In fact, the March 2015 Social Weather Survey shows that 70% of Filipinos nationwide followed the news of the Mamasapano clash very/somewhat closely. In addition, those who followed the news of the Senate and House investigation on the SAF deaths in the Mamasapano clash very/somewhat closely were 66%. Meanwhile, only 46% followed the news of the Legislation of the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) very/somewhat closely.

Chart 20 TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS/GROUPS INVESTIGATING THE MAMASAPANO INCIDENT TO GIVE A FAIR DECISION REGARDING THE CASE, PHILIPPINES, MAR 2015 Much trust Undecided Little trust Net* PNP Board of +25 Inquiry (BOI) 50 24 24

Senate investigation 50 18 30 +21

House of Rep. investigation 40 26 32 + 8

MILF investigation 25 26 46 - 21

*Net figures (% Much Trust minus % Little Trust) correctly rounded. Q: Maaari po bang pakisabi ninyo kung gaano KALAKI o KALIIT ang inyong pagtitiwala sa mga institusyon o grupong ito na makapagbibigay ang mga ito ng makatarungang desisyon ukol sa kasong ito. Masasabi po ba ninyo na kayo ay may NAPAKALAKING PAGTITIWALA, MEDYO MALAKING PAGTITIWALA, HINDI TIYAK KUNG MALAKI O MALIIT ANG PAGTITIWALA, MEDYO MALIIT NA PAGTITIWALA, NAPAKALIIT NA PAGTITIWALA O WALA PA KAYONG NARINIG O NABASA KAHIT NA KAILAN TUNGKOL SA (INSTITUSYON/GRUPO)?

11 The Philippine National Police Board of Inquiry released The Mamasapano Report on March 13, 2015 - http://pnp.gov.ph/ portal/images/boimamasapano/boi_final.pdf; The Senate Report on the Mamasapano Clash was made public on March 17, 2015 - http://www.gracepoe.ph/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/FINAL-MAMASAPANO-COMMITTEE-REPORT.pdf; and The Moro Islamic Liberation Front Special Investigative Commission submitted their Report on the Mamasapano Incident on March 23, 2015 to the Committee on Public Order and Dangerous Drugs - https://themanilajourno.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/ milf-mamasapano-report-march-2015.pdf. 12 The February special survey in Core Territories of the Bangsamoro and Nearby Areas was undertaken too soon after the Mamasapano incident to have questions about investigations included.

Social Weather Stations 17 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

Among Filipinos aware of the Board of Inquiry of the Philippine National Police, 1 out of 2 have much trust that it can give a fair decision regarding its investigation of the Mamasapano incident.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that, among the 98% of Filipinos nationwide who are aware of the Board of Inquiry of the Philippine National Police, half (50%) have much trust that they can give a fair decision regarding their investigation of the Mamasapano incident, 24% are undecided, while another 24% have little trust, for a moderate net trust of +25. [Chart 21]

By area, net trust in the investigation of the Board of Inquiry of the Philippine National Police is higher in Mindanao (+29), NCR (+28) and Balance Luzon (+25) compared to Visayas (+19).

Chart 21

TRUST IN THE PNP BOARD OF INQUIRY TO GIVE A FAIR DECISION REGARDING THE MAMASAPANO INCIDENT, BY AREA, MAR 2015

Much trust Undecided Little trust Net*

Philippines 50 24 24 +25

NCR 53 21 25 +28

Bal. Luzon 49 25 24 +25

Visayas 44 29 24 +19

Mindanao 54 21 25 +29

Among Filipinos aware of the Senate, 1 out of 2 have much trust that it can give a fair decision regarding its investigation of the Mamasapano incident.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that, among the 99% of Filipinos nationwide who are aware of the Senate, half (50%) have much trust that they can give a fair decision regarding their investigation of the Mamasapano incident, 18% are undecided, while 30% have little trust, for a moderate net trust of +21. [Chart 22]

By area, net trust in the investigation of the Senate is slightly higher in Visayas (+25), NCR (+23) and Mindanao (+21) compared to Balance Luzon (+18).

Chart 22

TRUST IN THE SENATE INVESTIGATION TO GIVE A FAIR DECISION REGARDING THE MAMASAPANO INCIDENT, BY AREA, MAR 2015

Much trust Undecided Little trust Net*

Philippines 50 18 30 +21

NCR 53 15 31 +23

Bal. Luzon 50 17 32 +18

Visayas 49 25 24 +25

Mindanao 51 18 29 +21

18 Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

Among Filipinos aware of the House of Representatives, 2 out of 5 have much trust that it can give a fair decision regarding its investigation of the Mamasapano incident.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that, among the 98% of Filipinos nationwide who are aware of the House of Representatives, two-fifths (40%) have much trust that they can give a fair decision regarding their investigation of the Mamasapano incident, 26% are undecided, while 32% have little trust, for a neutral net trust of +8. [Chart 23]

By area, net trust in the investigation of the House of Representatives is higher in Visayas (+15) and Mindanao (+12) compared to Balance Luzon (+5) and NCR (+2).

Chart 23

TRUST IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES INVESTIGATION TO GIVE A FAIR DECISION REGARDING THE MAMASAPANO INCIDENT, BY AREA, MAR 2015 Much trust Undecided Little trust Net*

Philippines 40 26 32 +8

NCR 39 22 37 +2

Bal. Luzon 38 26 34 +5

Visayas 39 33 25 +15

Mindanao 44 22 32 +12

Among Filipinos aware of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, 1 out of 4 have much trust that it can give a fair decision regarding its investigation of the Mamasapano incident.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that, among the 98% Filipinos nationwide who are aware of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, a fourth (25%) have much trust that they can give a fair decision regarding their investigation of the Mamasapano incident, 26% are undecided, while nearly half (46%) have little trust, for a poor net trust of -21. [Chart 24]

Distrust in the investigation of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front prevails across areas in March 2015. In particular, net trust is -14 in Mindanao, -16 in Visayas, -24 in Balance Luzon and -29 in NCR.

Chart 24

TRUST IN THE MILF INVESTIGATION TO GIVE A FAIR DECISION REGARDING THE MAMASAPANO INCIDENT, BY AREA, MAR 2015

Much trust Undecided Little trust Net*

Philippines 25 26 46 -21

NCR 25 19 54 -29

Bal. Luzon 23 29 47 -24

Visayas 23 33 39 -16

Mindanao 31 19 45 -14

Social Weather Stations 19 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

Person/Group or Institution Who Should be Held Accountable for the Mamasapano Incident

Nearly half of Filipinos nationwide cited President Noynoy Aquino as the one who should be held accountable for the Mamasapano incident.

When asked about the person/group or institution who should be held accountable for the death of the 44 SAF members of the PNP, 18 members of the BIAF of the MILF and 3 civilians in Mamasapano, Maguindanao, nearly half (47%) of Filipinos nationwide cited Pres. Noynoy Aquino, a fourth (27%) cited Gen. Alan Purisima and 10% cited the MILF. Smaller percentages cited Gen. Getulio Napeñas (7%), the SAF/Police (6%), the BIFF (3%), the National Government (3%), the PNP Chief (3%), Sec. Mar Roxas (1%), the AFP/Military (1%), Gen. Leonardo Espina (1%), Muslims/Muslim Rebels (1%) and Others (6%). There are 2% who said that no one is accountable, while 12% Don’t know/Refused/Can’t say. [Table 2]

Across areas, Pres. Aquino is the most cited person who should be held accountable for the Mamasapano incident, followed by Gen. Alan Purisima. Percentages of those who cited Pres. Noynoy Aquino are higher in Balance Luzon (53%) compared to Mindanao (44%), Visayas (42%) and NCR (41%). On the other hand, those who cited Gen. Alan Purisima are higher in Balance Luzon (32%) and Visayas (28%) compared to NCR (20%) and Mindanao (17%).

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that, in Core territories, nearly a fifth (18%) cited Pres. Noynoy Aquino as the one who should be held accountable for Mamasapano incident, 15% cited the SAF/Police, 11% cited Gen. Alan Purisima and 11% cited the National Government. Smaller percentages cited Gen. Getulio Napeñas (5%), the MILF (3%), the PNP Chief (3%), the AFP/Military (3%), Sec. Mar Roxas (1%) and Others (7%), while a fourth (25%) Don’t know/Refused/Can’t say. This high level of nonresponse may reflect a reluctance to express an opinion in the areas most immediately affected by the tragic incident.

In Nearby areas, meanwhile, two out of five (41%) cited Pres. Noynoy Aquino as the one who should be held accountable for Mamasapano incident, 15% cited Gen. Alan Purisima, 14% cited the MILF and 12% cited the National Government. Smaller percentages cited the SAF/Police (6%), Gen. Getulio Napeñas (3%), the BIFF (3%), the PNP Chief (1%), Sec. Mar Roxas (1%), the AFP/Military (1%), Gen. Leonardo Espina (1%) and Others (8%), while 9% Don’t know/Refused/Can’t say.

The Joint National Bureau of Investigation - National Table 2 Prosecution Service Special Investigation Team (NBI-NPS SIT) PERSON/GROUP OR INSTITUTION THAT SHOULD BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE FOR THE MAMASAPANO INCIDENT, PHILIPPINES submitted its Report on the January (MAR 2015) AND CORE AND NEARBY AREAS (FEB 2015) 25, 2015 Mamasapano Incident Mar 2015 Feb 2015 to Secretary Leila De Lima of The Core Nearby Department of Justice (DOJ) on PH NCR Luz Vis Min Territories Areas Pres. Noynoy Aquino 47% 41% 53% 42% 44% 18% 41% April 16, 2015. After reviewing the Gen. Alan Purisima 27 20 32 28 17 11 15 MILF 10 9 10 10 11 3 14 report, Sec. De Lima gave the go Gen. Getulio Napeñas 7 9 9 5 6 5 3 signal to release the same to the SAF/Police 6 9 3 2 13 15 6 BIFF 3 3 4 1 5 0 3 public on April 22, 2015. Below is National Government 3 3 2 2 5 11 12 13 PNP Chief 3 3 2 2 5 3 1 an excerpt from the news article Sec. Mar Roxas 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 on the DOJ website: AFP/Military 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 Gen. Leonardo Espina 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 Don't Know/Can't Say 12 12 13 14 8 25 9 “…the NBI-NPS SIT has Others 6 9 4 6 7 7 8 No One Is Accountable 2 3 2 4 1 -- -- recommended the filing of charges Muslims/Muslim Rebels 1 1 1 1 1 -- -- Q: Sino po sa tingin ninyo ang dapat managot sa pagkamatay ng 44 na miyembro ng Special Action Force o SAF of Direct Assault complexed with ng Philippine National Police (PNP), 18 miyembro ng Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces o BIAF ng MILF at sa 3 na Murder or the Complex Crime of sibilyan sa Mamasapano, Maguindanao? (OPEN-END; ALLOW MULTIPLE RESPONSE) Direct Assault with Murder under Article 148, in relation to Article 248 of the Revised Penal Code (RPC), as well as Theft under Article 308, RPC for the taking of the firearms, other fighting equipment and various personal belongings of the SAF commandos, against ninety (90) suspects…”

13 Excerpted from The Department of Justice news article dated 22 April 2015. The full text of the MamasapanoNBI-NPSSITReport is available to the public at: http://www.doj.gov.ph/files/news/Mamasapano_NBI-NPS_SIT_Report_REDACTED.pdf

20 Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

In addition, a press release14 from the Office of the Ombudsman dated July 22, 2015 reads in part:

“Ombudsman Conchita Carpio Morales approved the recommendation of the special panel of field investigators to initiate administrative adjudication and preliminary investigation against former PDG Alan Purisima, PDir. Getulio Napeñas and nine other police officers in relation to what is known as the “Mamasapano incident.”

Purisima, Napeñas and PCSupt. Fernando Mendez Jr. face charges of Grave Misconduct, and violation of Section 3(a) of the Anti-Graft and Corrupt Practices (Republic Act No. 3019). Purisima also faces a charge of Usurpation of Official Functions under Article 177 of the Revised Penal Code (RPC).

Purisima and Napeñas are likewise charged with Neglect of Duty along with PCSupt. Noli Taliño, PSSupt. Richard Dela Rosa, PSSupt. PSSupt. Edgar Monsalve, PSSupt. Abraham Abayari, PSSupt. Raymund Train, PSSupt. Michael John Mangahis, PSSupt. Rey Ariño and PSInsp. Recaredo Marasigan.”

G. Disposition Toward the Moro Islamic Liberation Front

Public Trust in the Moro Islamic Liberation Front

Among Filipinos aware of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF, nearly 1 out of 5 have much trust in them, while 3 out of 5 have little trust.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that, among the 100% of Filipinos nationwide who are aware of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF, nearly a fifth (16%) havemuch trust in them, 19% are undecided, while three-fifths (61%) have little trust, for a bad net trust of -45. [Chart 25]

Net trust in the MILF fell by 15 points to -45 in March 2015, from -30 in September 2014. In 28 survey rounds from March 1995 to March 2015, net trust in the MILF had been poor (-10 to -29) 7 times, bad (-30 to -49) 15 times, and very bad (-50 to -69) 6 times. The negative trust rating was least negative just after the late 2012 signing of the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro, and was lessened in September 2014 when the draft Basic Law was submitted to Congress. However, after Mamasapano it plunged once again and did not recover by June 2015.

Chart 25

TRUST IN THE MORO ISLAMIC LIBERATION FRONT (MILF), MAR 1995 TO JUN 2015

80% Little trust 60% 57% 40% Much trust 20% 15% 0% Net* trust -20%

-40% -42 -60%

-80% * '95 * '96 * '97 * '98 * '99 * '00 * '01 * '02 * '03 * '04 * '05 * '06 * '07 * '08 * '09 * '10 * '11 * '12 * '13 * '14 * '15 *

*Net figures (% Much trust minus % Little trust) correctly rounded.

14 Excerpted from the Office of the Ombudsman press release dated 22 July 2015 - http://www.ombudsman.gov.ph/index. php?home=1&pressId=Njg4

Social Weather Stations 21 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

Sincerity of the Government and Moro Islamic Liberation Front in Following the Provisions of the Signed Peace Agreement

Nearly 3 out of 5 Filipinos nationwide think that the government is very/somewhat sincere in following the provisions of the peace agreement it signed with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that nearly a fifth (17%) of Filipinos nationwide think that the government is very sincere in following the provisions of the peace agreement it signed with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, two-fifths (41%) think they aresomewhat sincere, 23% think they are a little sincere, while 17% think they are insincere. [Chart 26]

Majorities across areas think that the government is very/somewhat sincere in following the provisions of the peace agreement it signed with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

In particular, those who think that the government is very sincere are higher in Mindanao (27%) and NCR (23%) compared to Visayas (16%) and Balance Luzon (12%).

Those who think that the government is somewhat sincere are higher in Balance Luzon (44%) and Visayas (44%) compared to NCR (35%) and Mindanao (35%).

On the other hand, those who think that the government is a little sincere are slightly higher in Balance Luzon (24%) and Mindanao (24%) compared to Visayas (20%) and NCR (19%).

Those who think that the government is insincere are slightly higher in NCR (21%), Balance Luzon (18%) and Visayas (18%) compared to Mindanao (14%).

Chart 26

OPINION ON THE SINCERITY OF GOVERNMENT IN FOLLOWING THE PROVISIONS OF THE PEACE AGREEMENT IT SIGNED WITH THE MORO ISLAMIC LIBERATION FRONT (MILF), BY AREA, MAR 2015

Very Somewhat A little sincere sincere sincere Insincere

Philippines 17 41 23 17

NCR 23 35 19 21

Bal. Luzon 12 44 24 18

Visayas 16 44 20 18

Mindanao 27 35 24 14

Q: Sa inyong palagay, ang PAMAHALAAN po ba ay TAPAT NA TAPAT, MEDYO TAPAT, TAPAT NANG KAUNTI, o HINDI TAPAT sa pagsunod nito sa mga probisyon ng pinirmahang kasunduang pangkapayapaan sa Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)? (SHOWCARD)

22 Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that, in BaSulTa areas,majorities in Basilan, Tawi-Tawi and Isabela City think that the government is very/somewhat sincere in following the provisions of the peace agreement it signed with the MILF, while the reverse pattern is observed in Sulu. [Chart 27]

Those who think that the government is very sincere is higher in Basilan (18%) and Tawi-Tawi (18%) compared to Sulu (14%) and Isabela City (11%).

Those in who think that the government is somewhat sincere is higher in Basilan (42%), Isabela City (41%) and Tawi-Tawi (41%) compared to Sulu (31%).

On the other hand, those who think that the government is a little sincere is higher in Sulu (46%) and Isabela City (40%) compared to Basilan (31%) and Tawi-Tawi (28%).

Those who think that the government is insincere hardly differ between Tawi-Tawi (12%), Sulu (10%), Basilan (10%) and Isabela City (8%).

Majorities across Central Mindanao areas think that the government is very/somewhat sincere in following the provisions of the peace agreement it signed with the MILF.

In Central Mindanao areas, those who think that the government is very sincere is much higher in Lanao del Sur (54%) compared to Lanao del Norte near ARMM (35%), Cotabato near ARMM (31%), Maguindanao (15%) and Cotabato City (14%).

Those who think that the government is somewhat sincere is much higher in Maguindanao (55%), Cotabato near ARMM (55%), Cotabato City (52%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (47%) compared to Lanao del Sur (29%).

On the other hand, those who think that the government is a little sincere is higher in Cotabato City (22%) compared to Maguindanao (15%), Lanao del Norte near ARMM (10%), Lanao del Sur (7%) and Cotabato near ARMM (6%).

Those who think that the government is insincere is slightly higher in Maguindanao (15%) compared to Cotabato City (12%), Lanao del Sur (10%), Lanao del Norte near ARMM (8%) and Cotabato near ARMM (7%).

Overall we see the familiar pattern where Sulu and Isabela City are the most skeptical, Basilan and Tawi-Tawi less so (resembling the nationwide results), and Core territories in mainland Mindanao the most positive. Chart 27

OPINION ON THE SINCERITY OF GOVERNMENT IN FOLLOWING THE PROVISIONS OF THE PEACE AGREEMENT IT SIGNED WITH THE MILF, PHILIPPINES (MAR 2015) AND CORE TERRITORIES (FEB 2015) Very Somewhat A little sincere sincere sincere Insincere Philippines 17 41 23 17

Sulu 14 31 46 10 Basilan 18 42 31 10 Isabela City 11 41 40 8 Tawi-Tawi 18 41 28 12 Lanao del Sur 54 29 7 10 Maguindanao 15 55 15 15 Cotabato City 14 52 22 12 LDN near ARMM 35 47 10 8 Cot. Near ARMM 31 55 6 7 Q: Sa inyong palagay, ang PAMAHALAAN po ba ay TAPAT NA TAPAT, MEDYO TAPAT, TAPAT NANG KAUNTI, o HINDI TAPAT sa pagsunod nito sa mga probisyon ng pinirmahang kasunduang pangkapayapaan sa Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)? (SHOWCARD)

Social Weather Stations 23 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

Nearly 3 out of 10 Filipinos nationwide think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is very/somewhat sincere in following the provisions of the peace agreement it signed with the government.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that 7% of Filipinos nationwide think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is very sincere in following the provisions of the peace agreement it signed with the government, a fifth (21%) think they are somewhat sincere, 27% think they are a little sincere, while over two-fifths (43%) think they are insincere. [Chart 28]

Majorities across areas think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is a little sincere/insincere in following the provisions of the peace agreement it signed with the government. In fact, pluralities across all areas think that the MILF is insincere.

In particular, those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is very sincere are higher in Mindanao (16%) compared to Visayas (5%), NCR (4%) and Balance Luzon (4%).

Those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is somewhat sincere are higher in NCR (25%), Balance Luzon (23%) and Visayas (20%) compared to Mindanao (16%).

On the other hand, those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is a little sincere are higher in Balance Luzon (33%) compared to Visayas (24%), NCR (22%) and Mindanao (21%).

Those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is insincere are higher in Visayas (49%), NCR (47%) and Mindanao (46%) compared to Balance Luzon (38%).

Chart 28

OPINION ON THE SINCERITY OF THE MILF IN FOLLOWING THE PROVISIONS OF THE PEACE AGREEMENT IT SIGNED WITH THE GOVERNMENT, BY AREA, MAR 2015 Very Somewhat A little sincere sincere sincere Insincere

Philippines 7 21 27 43

NCR 4 25 22 47

Bal. Luzon 4 23 33 38

Visayas 5 20 24 49

Mindanao 16 16 21 46

Q: Sa inyong palagay, ang Moro Islamic Liberation Front o MILF po ba ay TAPAT NA TAPAT, MEDYO TAPAT, TAPAT NANG KAUNTI, o HINDI TAPAT sa pagsunod nito sa mga probisyon ng pinirmahang kasunduang pangkapayapaan sa gobyerno? (SHOWCARD)

24 Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that, in BaSulTa areas, majorities in Basilan and Tawi-Tawi think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is very/somewhat sincere in following the provisions of the peace agreement it signed with the government, while opinion is split in Sulu and Isabela City. [Chart 29]

Those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is very sincere is higher in Basilan (26%) and Tawi-Tawi (25%) compared to Sulu (13%) and Isabela City (12%).

Those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is somewhat sincere hardly differ between Basilan (40%), Tawi-Tawi (38%), Isabela City (37%) and Sulu (36%).

On the other hand, those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is a little sincere is higher in Sulu (38%) and Isabela City (37%) compared to Basilan (24%) and Tawi-Tawi (24%).

Those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is insincere hardly differ between Isabela City (14%), Sulu (13%), Tawi-Tawi (13%) and Basilan (10%).

Large majorities across Central Mindanao areas think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is very/somewhat sincere in following the provisions of the peace agreement it signed with the government.

In Central Mindanao areas, those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is very sincere is higher in Cotabato near ARMM (83%) and Lanao del Sur (76%) compared to Maguindanao (65%), Cotabato City (62%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (60%).

Those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is somewhat sincere is higher in Maguindanao (29%), Cotabato City (24%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (24%) compared to Lanao del Sur (18%) and Cotabato near ARMM (16%).

On the other hand, those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is a little sincere is higher in Cotabato City (12%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (10%) compared to Lanao del Sur (3%), Maguindanao (3%) and Cotabato near ARMM (1%).

Those who think that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is insincere is slightly higher in Lanao del Norte near ARMM (6%) compared to Lanao del Sur (3%), Maguindanao (3%), Cotabato City (2%) and Cotabato near ARMM (1%).

Chart 29 OPINION ON THE SINCERITY OF THE MILF IN FOLLOWING THE PROVISIONS OF THE PEACE AGREEMENT IT SIGNED WITH THE GOVERNMENT, PHILIPPINES (MAR 2015) AND CORE TERRITORIES (FEB 2015) Very Somewhat A little sincere sincere sincere Insincere Philippines 7 21 27 43

Sulu 13 36 38 13 Basilan 26 40 24 10 Isabela City 12 37 37 14 Tawi-Tawi 25 38 24 13 Lanao del Sur 76 18 3 3 Maguindanao 65 29 3 3 Cotabato City 62 24 12 2 LDN near ARMM 60 24 10 6 Cot. Near ARMM 83 16 11 Q: Sa inyong palagay, ang Moro Islamic Liberation Front o MILF po ba ay TAPAT NA TAPAT, MEDYO TAPAT, TAPAT NANG KAUNTI, o HINDI TAPAT sa pagsunod nito sa mga probisyon ng pinirmahang kasunduang pangkapayapaan sa gobyerno? (SHOWCARD)

In Chart 29 we see the familiar pattern of Sulu and Isabela City being the most skeptical, but in this instance even those areas have a higher opinion of the sincerity of the MILF than does the nationwide citizenry. Social Weather Stations 25 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

On MILF’s Acceptance of the Outcome of the Bangsamoro Elections

Pluralities of Filipinos nationwide do not believe that the MILF will accept the outcome of the elections for the Bangsamoro even if they do not win.

This is a crucial question in considering the draft Bangsamoro Basic Law, and the peace process more generally, since the MILF has repeatedly asserted that their negotiations are not for the organizational benefit of the MILF but rather to solve the Bangsamoro problem more generally. In particular, the MILF has offered assurances that should they lose elections in the Bangsamoro, they would accept the result and step down from any office they held.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that one-fifth (21%) of Filipinos nationwidebelieve that the MILF will accept the outcome of the elections for the Bangsamoro even if they do not win, 35% are undecided, while over two-fifths (44%) do not believe, for a net score of -23. [Chart 30]

Pluralities across areas do not believe that the MILF will accept the outcome of the elections for the Bangsamoro even if they do not win. In particular, net scores are -21 in Balance Luzon, -22 in Mindanao, -25 in Visayas and -30 in NCR.

Chart 30

BELIEF THAT THE MILF WILL ACCEPT THE OUTCOME OF THE BANGSAMORO ELECTIONS EVEN IF THEY DO NOT WIN, BY AREA, MAR 2015

Believe Undecided Do not Believe Net*

Philippines 21 35 44 -23

NCR 19 31 49 -30

Bal. Luzon 21 37 42 -21

Visayas 17 41 42 -25

Mindanao 25 29 46 -22

*Net figures (% Believe minus % Do Not Believe) correctly rounded. Q: Kayo po ba ay… (SHOWCARD) na tatanggapin ng Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) ang magiging resulta ng halalan sa bago at pinalawak na lugar na may awtonomiya na tatawaging Bangsamoro, kahit na hindi sila ang mananalo dito? (LUBOS NA NANINIWALA, MEDYO NANINIWALA, HINDI TIYAK KUNG NANINIWALA O HINDI, MEDYO HINDI NANINIWALA, LUBOS NA HINDI NANINIWALA)

26 Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

Pluralities to majorities in most of the Core territories believe that the MILF will accept the outcome of the elections for the Bangsamoro even if they do not win; majorities in Nearby areas do not believe this.

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that pluralities to majorities in most of the Core territories believe that the MILF will accept the outcome of the elections for the Bangsamoro even if they do not win. [Chart 31]

Opinion in BaSulTa Chart 31 areas leans toward believing that the MILF BELIEF THAT THE MILF WILL ACCEPT THE OUTCOME OF THE BANGSAMORO ELECTIONS EVEN IF THEY DO NOT WIN, will accept the outcome PHILIPPINES (MAR 2015) AND CORE TERRITORIES (FEB 2015) of the elections for the Do not Bangsamoro even if they Believe Undecided believe Net* do not win. In particular, Philippines 21 35 44 -23 the net score is higher in Sulu Basilan (+44) compared 33 55 12 +21 Basilan to Tawi-Tawi (+26), Isabela 58 28 14 +44 City (+22) and Sulu (+21). Isabela City 43 36 21 +22 However, it should be Tawi-Tawi 47 31 22 +26 noted that the majority of Lanao del Sur 72 8 20 +52 55% in Sulu are undecided Maguindanao 65 24 11 +54 on the issue, and therefore, Cotabato City 58 32 10 +48 the +21 net score indicates LDN near ARMM 49 31 20 +29 the opinion of the minority. Cot. Near ARMM 69 11 20 +49 *Net figures (% Believe minus % Do not believe) correctly rounded. Q: Kayo po ba ay… (SHOWCARD) na tatanggapin ng Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) ang magiging resulta To a greater ng halalan sa bago at pinalawak na lugar na may awtonomiya na tatawaging Bangsamoro, kahit na hindi sila ang extent, opinion in Central mananalo dito? Mindanao leans toward believing that the MILF will accept the outcome of the elections for the Bangsamoro even if they do not win. In particular, net scores are higher in Maguindanao (+54), Lanao del Sur (+52), Cotabato near ARMM (+49) and Cotabato City (+48) compared to Lanao del Norte near ARMM (+29).

In contrast, opinion in Nearby areas leans toward not believing that the MILF will accept the outcome of the elections for the Bangsamoro even if they do not win. In particular, the net scores are -21 in the Rest of Lanao del Norte, -43 in the Rest of Cotabato and -53 in Zamboanga City. [Chart 32]

Chart 32

BELIEF THAT THE MILF WILL ACCEPT THE OUTCOME OF THE BANGSAMORO ELECTIONS EVEN IF THEY DO NOT WIN, NEARBY AREAS, FEB 2015

Do not Believe Undecided believe Net*

Philippines 21 35 44 -23

Zamboanga City 13 21 66 -53

Rest of Lanao -21 Del Norte 22 35 43

Rest of Cotabato Province 16 25 59 -43

*Net figures (% Believe minus % Do not believe) correctly rounded. Q: Kayo po ba ay… (SHOWCARD) na tatanggapin ng Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) ang magiging resulta ng halalan sa bago at pinalawak na lugar na may awtonomiya na tatawaging Bangsamoro, kahit na hindi sila ang mananalo dito?

Social Weather Stations 27 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

On the Moro Islamic Liberation Front’s Reliability on Selected Matters Once the Bangsamoro Area is Established

Over two-fifths of Filipinos nationwide disagree with the statement The Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF can be relied upon to take care of non-Muslims once the Bangsamoro area is established.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that a fourth (25%) of Filipinos agree with the statement The Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF can be relied upon to take care of non-Muslims once the Bangsamoro area is established, 29% are undecided, while a plurality of over two-fifths (44%) disagree, for a net agreement of -18. [Chart 33]

Across areas, disagreement with The Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF can be relied upon to take care of non-Muslims once the Bangsamoro area is established prevails among pluralities in March 2015. In particular, net agreement is -15 in Balance Luzon, -21 in NCR, -21 in Visayas, and -21 in Mindanao.

Chart 33

TEST STATEMENT: “The Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF can be relied upon to take care of non-Muslims once the Bangsamoro area is established”, BY AREA, MAR 2015

Agree Undecided Disagree Net*

Philippines 25 29 44 -18

NCR 25 28 46 -21

Bal. Luzon 26 31 41 -15

Visayas 22 34 42 -21

Mindanao 27 24 48 -21

*Net figures (% Agree minus % Disagree) correctly rounded. Q: Gaano po kayo sumasang-ayon o hindi sumasang-ayon sa pangungusap na ito: “Ang Moro Islamic Liberation Front o MILF ay maasahan na pangangalagaan ang kapakanan ng mga hindi Muslim kapag nabuo na ang lugar ng Bangsamoro.”? (SHOWCARD)

28 Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

On Bangsamoro Representing the Interest of Lumads, Christians and Muslims

On the special survey undertaken in the Core territories of the Bangsamoro and Nearby Areas a similar question was put – whether all residents of the area will have their interests represented by the Bangsamoro.

More in Core territories compared to Nearby areas believe that the Bangsamoro will represent the interest of all residents of the area, like Lumads, Christians and Muslims.

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that more Filipinos in Core territories believe that the Bangsamoro will represent the interest of all residents of the area, like Lumads, Christians and Muslims compared to Nearby areas.

Those in BaSulTa areas Chart 36 lean toward believing that the Bangsamoro will represent the BELIEF THAT THE BANGSAMORO WILL REPRESENT THE INTEREST OF ALL RESIDENTS OF THE AREA, LIKE LUMADS, CHRISTIANS AND interest of all residents of the MUSLIMS, CORE TERRITORIES, FEB 2015 Do not area, like Lumads, Christians Believe Undecided Believe Net* and Muslims. In particular, Sulu 29 63 9 +21 net scores (% believe minus % Basilan do not believe) are higher in 61 30 10 +51 Basilan (+51) and Tawi-Tawi Isabela City 43 34 22 +22 (+38) compared to Isabela City Tawi-Tawi 57 25 19 +38 (+22) and Sulu (+21). However, Lanao del Sur 86 8 6 +80 it should be noted that the Maguindanao 82 14 4 +78 majority of 63% in Sulu are Cotabato City 82 16 2 +80 undecided on the issue, and therefore, the +21 net score LDN near ARMM 77 16 7 +70 indicates the opinion of the Cot. near ARMM 92 7 1 +91 minority. [Chart 34] *Net figures (% Believe minus % Do Not Believe) correctly rounded. Q: Kayo po ba ay… (SHOWCARD) na ang bago at pinalawak na lugar na may awtonomiya na tatawaging Bangsamoro ay kakatawan sa interes ng lahat ng mga residente sa lugar na iyon tulad ng mga Lumad, Kristiyano at mga Muslim? (LUBOS NA NANINIWALA, MEDYO Those in Central NANINIWALA, HINDI TIYAK KUNG NANINIWALA O HINDI, MEDYO HINDI NANINIWALA, LUBOS NA HINDI NANINIWALA) Mindanao areas lean toward believing that the Bangsamoro will represent the interest of all residents of the area, like Lumads, Christians and Chart 35 Muslims. In particular, the net score is higher in Cotabato BELIEF THAT THE BANGSAMORO WILL REPRESENT THE INTEREST OF near ARMM (+91) compared to ALL RESIDENTS OF THE AREA, LIKE LUMADS, CHRISTIANS AND Lanao del Sur (+80), Cotabato MUSLIMS, NEARBY AREAS, FEB 2015

City (+80), Maguindanao (+78) Do not and Lanao del Norte near Believe Undecided Believe Net* ARMM (+70). Zamboanga City 23 26 51 -28 In Nearby areas, those in Zamboanga City and Rest of Lanao + 9 the Rest of Cotabato lean Del Norte 39 31 30 toward not believing that the Rest of Cotabato -24 Bangsamoro will represent the Province 25 27 49 interest of all residents of the area, like Lumads, Christians and Muslims, while opinion is *Net figures (% Believe minus % Do Not Believe) correctly rounded. somewhat divided in the Rest of Q: Kayo po ba ay… (SHOWCARD) na ang bago at pinalawak na lugar na may awtonomiya na tatawaging Bangsamoro ay kakatawan sa interes ng lahat ng mga residente sa lugar na iyon tulad ng mga Lumad, Kristiyano at mga Muslim? (LUBOS NA NANINIWALA, MEDYO Lanao del Norte. In particular, NANINIWALA, HINDI TIYAK KUNG NANINIWALA O HINDI, MEDYO HINDI NANINIWALA, LUBOS NA HINDI NANINIWALA) net scores are +9 in the Rest of Lanao del Norte, -24 in the Rest of Cotabato and -28 in Zamboanga City. [Chart 35]

Social Weather Stations 29 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

Over two-fifths of Filipinos nationwide disagree with the statement The Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF can be relied upon to arrest whoever violates the law, whether MILF members or not, once the Bangsamoro area is established.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that over a fourth (28%) of Filipinos agree with the statement The Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF can be relied upon to arrest whoever violates the law, whether MILF members or not, once the Bangsamoro area is established, 28% are undecided, while a plurality of over two-fifths (42%) disagree, for a net agreement of -14. [Chart 36]

Across areas, disagreement with The Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF can be relied upon to arrest whoever violates the law, whether MILF members or not, once the Bangsamoro area is established prevails among pluralities in March 2015. In particular, net agreement is -11 in Balance Luzon, -16 in NCR, -16 in Mindanao, and -19 in Visayas.

Chart 36

TEST STATEMENT: “The Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF can be relied upon to arrest whoever violates the law, whether MILF members or not, once the Bangsamoro area is established”, BY AREA, MAR 2015

Agree Undecided Disagree Net*

Philippines 28 28 42 -14

NCR 30 23 46 -16

Bal. Luzon 29 30 40 -11

Visayas 22 35 41 -19

Mindanao 30 23 46 -16

*Net figures (% Agree minus % Disagree) correctly rounded. Q: Gaano po kayo sumasang-ayon o hindi sumasang-ayon sa pangungusap na ito: “Ang Moro Islamic Liberation Front o MILF ay maasahan na huhulihin ang sinumang magkasala sa batas, miyembro man ng MILF o hindi, kapag nabuo na ang lugar ng Bangsamoro.”? (SHOWCARD)

Whether the Fulfillment of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro Will Curb the Spread of Terrorist Groups in the Country

More in Core territories compared to Nearby areas agree that The fulfillment of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro or CAB will curb the spread of terrorist groups like the Abu Sayyaf in the country.

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that more Filipinos in Core territories compared to Nearby areas agree that The fulfillment of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro or CAB will curb the spread of terrorist groups like the Abu Sayyaf in the country.

Agreement with The fulfillment of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro or CAB will curb the spread of terrorist groups like the Abu Sayyaf in the country prevails in BaSulTa areas. In particular, net agreement (% agree minus % disagree) is higher in Tawi-Tawi (+38), Basilan (+33) and Sulu (+32) compared to Isabela City (+20). However, it should be noted that significant percentages are undecided on the issue in Sulu (50%), Basilan (44%) and Isabela City (42%). [Chart 37]

30 Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

Agreement with The fulfillment of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro or CAB will curb the spread of terrorist groups like the Abu Sayyaf in the country also prevails in Central Mindanao areas. In particular, net agreement is higher in Cotabato near ARMM (+81) and Lanao del Sur (+72) compared to Cotabato City (+62), Maguindanao (+56) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (+50).

Chart 37

TEST STATEMENT: “The fulfillment of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro or CAB will curb the spread of terrorist groups like the Abu Sayyaf in the country”, CORE TERRITORIES, FEB 2015 Agree Undecided Disagree Net* Sulu 41 50 8 +32 Basilan 44 44 12 +33 Isabela City 39 42 19 +20 Tawi-Tawi 53 31 16 +38

Lanao del Sur 81 10 9 +72 Maguindanao 63 30 7 +56 Cotabato City 67 28 4 +62 LDN near ARMM 64 22 14 +50

Cot. near ARMM 83 15 2 +81

*Net figures (% Agree minus % Disagree) correctly rounded. Q: Gaano po kayo sumasang-ayon o hindi sumasang-ayon sa pangungusap na ito: “Ang ganap na katuparan ng Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro o CAB ay pipigil sa pagdami ng mga teroristang grupo tulad ng Abu Sayyaf sa bansa.”? (SHOWCARD)

In contrast, disagreement with The fulfillment of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro or CAB will curb the spread of terrorist groups like the Abu Sayyaf in the country prevails in Nearby areas. In particular, net agreement is -16 in the Rest of Lanao del Norte, -31 in the Rest of Cotabato and -40 in Zamboanga City. [Chart 38]

Chart 38

TEST STATEMENT: “The fulfillment of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro or CAB will curb the spread of terrorist groups like the Abu Sayyaf in the country”, NEARBY AREAS, FEB 2015

Agree Undecided Disagree Net*

Zamboanga City -40 19 22 59

Rest of Lanao -16 Del Norte 29 25 45

Rest of Cotabato -31 Province 21 27 52

Social Weather Stations 31 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

H. Effects of Peace Issues on Satisfaction with the National Administration

After a sharp slide in March 2015, Net satisfaction with the National Administration bounced back to a Good +31 nationwide in June.

The June 2015 Social Chart 39 Weather Survey found 55% of adult Filipinos satisfied, 20% NET* SATISFACTION WITH GENERAL PERFORMANCE neither satisfied nor dissatisfied, OF THE NATIONAL ADMINISTRATION, FEB 1989 – JUN 2015 and 24% dissatisfied with the general performance of the C. AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO B. AQUINO

National Administration, for a +70 net satisfaction rating15 of +31 Net* Satisfaction (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied), +50 classified by SWS as good. [Chart +30 +31 39] G +10

We can see from the -10 slide that for the first three years of this national administration, -30 until 2013, satisfaction with the -50 national administration was at all- 1986 1992 1998 2001 2004 2010 2015 time highs. Since that time there * Net figures (% Satisfied minus % Dissatisfied) correctly rounded. has been a downward trend, which bottomed out in March 2015, with a rebound in June.

The decline in the March 2015 ratings were focused on issues of peace and security.

The 15 point decline between December 2014 and March 2015 was led by just a few issues. Compared to December 2014, we have:

• down by 18 points from +40 on Defending the country’s territorial rights, • down by 18 points from +15 on Reconciliation with Muslim rebels, and • down by 20 points from +17 on Reconciliation with Communist rebels. [Table 3]

Out of 16 specific Table 3 performance issues rated in both the December 2014 and March NET* SATISFACTION WITH THE NATIONAL ADMINISTRATION 2015 Social Weather Surveys, ON SPECIFIC ISSUES, DEC 2014 AND MAR 2015 the National Administration’s net Dec14 Mar15 Drop/Rise satisfaction ratings declined on Overall performance rating +34 +19 -15 12 specific issues, is unchanged Fighting inflation -12 -8 +4 Fighting crimes +5 +9 +4 on 1 specific issue, and rose on 3 Helping the poor +33 +34 +1 specific issues. But only on these Helping victims of disasters +42 +42 0 three issues was the decline in Ensuring that no family will ever be hungry -9 -11 -2 Preparing for climate change +31 +29 -2 the double digits. Foreign relations +33 +30 -3 Eradicating graft and corruption +6 +2 -4 On the other hand, when Promoting the welfare of OFWs +38 +34 -4 Ensuring oil firms don’t take advantage of oil prices -8 -13 -5 satisfaction with the national Providing jobs +17 +11 -6 administration rebounded Resolving the Maguindanao massacre case with justice -41 -50 -9 in June 2015, there were no Fighting terrorism +15 +6 -9 particular leading issues. On Defending the country's territorial rights +40 +22 -18 Reconciliation with Muslim rebels +15 -3 -18 none, including those about Reconciliation with Communist rebels +17 -3 -20 peace and security, did net * Net figures (% Satisfied minus % Dissatisfied) correctly rounded. satisfaction increase by double digits.

15 SWS terminology for Net Satisfaction Ratings: +70 and above, “excellent”; +50 to +69, “very good”; +30 to +49, “good”; +10 to +29, “moderate”, +9 to –9, “neutral”; –10 to –29, “poor”; –30 to –49, “bad”; –50 to –69, “very bad”; –70 and below, “execrable”. A single-digit net satisfaction is considered not significantly different from zero.

32 Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

I. Hope for the Bangsamoro

Peace and Development with the New Bangsamoro Government

Nearly 2 out of 5 Filipinos nationwide are hopeful that the new Bangsamoro government in the expanded autonomous area will bring peace and development in its areas after May 2016.

The March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that nearly two-fifths (37%) of Filipinos nationwide are hopeful (10% very hopeful and 27% somewhat hopeful) that the New Bangsamoro Government in the expanded autonomous area will bring peace and development in its areas after May 2016, while the majority of 62% are not hopeful (27% somewhat not hopeful and 35% not hopeful at all). [Chart 40]

Majorities across all areas in March 2015 are not hopeful that the New Bangsamoro Government in the expanded autonomous area will bring peace and development in its areas after May 2016. In fact, pluralities across all areas are not hopeful at all.

In particular, the percentage very hopeful is higher in Mindanao (16%) compared to NCR (10%), Visayas (8%) and Balance Luzon (7%).

Those somewhat hopeful is higher in Balance Luzon (30%) and NCR (29%) compared to Visayas (24%) and Mindanao (21%).

On the other hand, those somewhat not hopeful is higher in Balance Luzon (30%) and NCR (27%) compared to Visayas (23%) and Mindanao (23%).

Those not hopeful at all is higher in Visayas (43%) and Mindanao (39%) compared to NCR (33%) and Balance Luzon (31%).

Chart 40

HOPE THAT THE NEW BANGSAMORO GOVERNMENT IN THE EXPANDED AUTONOMOUS AREA WILL BRING PEACE AND DEVELOPMENT IN ITS AREAS AFTER MAY 2016, BY AREA, MAR 2015 Somewhat Not Very Somewhat Not hopeful hopeful hopeful hopeful at all

Philippines 10 27 27 35

NCR 10 29 27 33

Bal. Luzon 7 30 30 31

Visayas 8 24 23 43

Mindanao 16 21 23 39

Q: Kayo po ba ay… (SHOWCARD) na ang magiging bagong gobyerno ng Bangsamoro na pinalawak na lugar na may awtonomiya ay magdudulot ng kapayapaan at kaunlaran sa mga lugar na sakop nito makalipas ang Mayo 2016? (TALAGANG UMAASA, MEDYO UMAASA, MEDYO HINDI UMAASA, TALAGANG HINGI UMAASA)

Social Weather Stations 33 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

Majorities in most of the Core territories are hopeful that the new Bangsamoro government in the expanded autonomous area will bring peace and development in its areas after May 2016.

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that majorities in most of the Core territories are hopeful that the new Bangsamoro government in the expanded autonomous area will bring peace and development in its areas after May 2016. [Chart 41]

In BaSulTa areas, majorities in Basilan, Taw-Tawi and Isabela City are hopeful that the new Bangsamoro government in the expanded autonomous area will bring peace and development in its areas after May 2016. In particular, the percentage very hopeful is higher in Basilan (34%) and Tawi-Tawi (33%) compared to Isabela City (18%) and Sulu (15%).

Those somewhat hopeful are slightly higher in Basilan (40%) and Isabela City (38%) compared to Tawi-Tawi (36%) and Sulu (34%).

On the other hand, those somewhat not hopeful are higher in Sulu (46%) and Isabela City (35%) compared to Basilan (24%) and Tawi-Tawi (22%).

Those not hopeful at all are slightly higher in Tawi-Tawi (10%) and Isabela City (8%) compared to Sulu (6%) and Basilan (4%).

To a much greater extent, majorities in Central Mindanao areas are hopeful that the new Bangsamoro government in the expanded autonomous area will bring peace and development in its areas after May 2016. In particular, the percentage very hopeful is higher in Cotabato near ARMM (83%), Lanao del Sur (74%) and Maguindanao (71%) compared to Cotabato City (58%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (58%).

Those somewhat hopeful are higher in Cotabato City (31%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (29%) compared to Maguindanao (18%), Lanao del Sur (17%) and Cotabato near ARMM (13%).

On the other hand, those somewhat not hopeful are higher in Cotabato City (11%), Maguindanao (10%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (8%) compared to Lanao del Sur (5%) and Cotabato near ARMM (3%).

Those not hopeful at all are slightly higher in Lanao del Norte near ARMM (5%) and Lanao del Sur (4%) compared to Cotabato City (2%), Maguindanao (1%) and Cotabato near ARMM (1%).

Chart 41

HOPE THAT THE NEW BANGSAMORO GOVERNMENT IN THE EXPANDED AUTONOMOUS AREA WILL BRING PEACE AND DEVELOPMENT IN ITS AREAS AFTER MAY 2016, PHILIPPINES (MAR 2015) AND CORE TERRITORIES (FEB 2015) Somewhat Very Somewhat Not Not hopeful hopeful hopeful hopeful at all Philippines 10 27 27 35

Sulu 15 34 46 6 Basilan 34 40 24 4 Isabela City 18 38 35 8 Tawi-Tawi 33 36 22 10 Lanao del Sur 74 17 5 4 Maguindanao 71 18 10 1 Cotabato City 58 31 11 2 LDN near ARMM 58 29 8 5 Cot. Near ARMM 83 13 31

Again, while these results follow the familiar internal pattern of the greatest skepticism in Sulu and Isabela City, even these areas are considerably more hopeful than the nationwide response.

34 Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

Perceived Benefit of the Peace Agreement with the MILF

2 out of 5 Filipinos nationwide think that there is much or moderate benefit to the Filipinos in the peace process with the MILF.

To the question, “Sa inyong palagay, ang mga isinasagawa bang prosesong pangkapayapaan o “peace process” sa MILF ay magbubunga ng MALAKING KABUTIHAN, KATAMTAMANG KABUTIHAN, MALIIT NA KABUTIHAN O WALANG KABUTIHAN para sa mga Pilipino? [In your opinion, will the peace process with the MILF give MUCH BENEFIT, MODERATE BENEFIT, A LITTLE BENEFIT OR NO BENEFIT AT ALL to the Filipinos?],” the March 2015 Social Weather Survey found that two-fifths (42%) of Filipinos nationwide think that there is much or moderate benefit to the Filipinos in the peace process with the MILF (16% much benefit and 26% moderate benefit), while the majority of 56% think there is a little or no benefit (21% a little benefit and 35% no benefit at all). [Chart 42]

By area, those who think there is much or moderate benefit to the Filipinos in the peace process with the MILF in March 2015 are higher in Balance Luzon (49%), NCR (47%) and Mindanao (40%) compared to Visayas (27%). On the other hand, majorities in Visayas (70%) and Mindanao (58%) and half in NCR (51%) and Balance Luzon (50%) think that there is a little or no benefit at all to the Filipinos in the peace process with the MILF.

In particular, those who think there is much benefit are higher in Mindanao (20%), Balance Luzon (17%) and NCR (15%) compared to Visayas (11%).

Those who think there is moderate benefit are higher in NCR (32%) and Balance Luzon (32%) compared to Mindanao (20%) and Visayas (17%).

On the other hand, those who think there is a little benefit are slightly higher in NCR (23%), Balance Luzon (22%) and Visayas (21%) compared to Mindanao (18%).

Those who think there is no benefit at all are higher in Visayas (49%) and Mindanao (39%) compared to NCR (29%) and Balance Luzon (28%).

Chart 42

EXTENT OF BENEFIT OF THE PEACE TALKS WITH THE MILF TO THE FILIPINOS, BY AREA, MAR 2015 No Much Moderate A little benefit benefit benefit benefit at all

Philippines 16 26 21 35

NCR 15 32 23 29

Bal. Luzon 17 32 22 28

Visayas 11 17 21 49

Mindanao 20 20 18 39

Q: Sa inyong palagay, ang mga isinasagawa bang prosesong pangkapayapaan o "peace process" sa MILF ay magbubunga ng MALAKING KABUTIHAN, KATAMTAMANG KABUTIHAN, MALIIT NA KABUTIHAN O WALANG KABUTIHAN para sa mga Pilipino? (SHOWCARD)

Social Weather Stations 35 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

Majorities in Core territories think that there is much or moderate benefit to the Filipinos in the peace talks with the MILF.

The question was worded differently in the February 2015 survey of special areas in Mindanao. It asked, “Sa inyong palagay, ang mga isinasagawa bang usap-pangkapayapaan o “peace talks” sa MILF ay magbubunga ng MALAKING KABUTIHAN, KATAMTAMANG KABUTIHAN, MALIIT NA KABUTIHAN O WALANG KABUTIHAN para sa mga Pilipino? [In your opinion, will the peace talks being negotiated with the MILF give MUCH BENEFIT, MODERATE BENEFIT, A LITTLE BENEFIT OR NO BENEFIT AT ALL to the Filipinos?],” and the February 2015 Mindanao survey found that majorities in Core territories that there is much or moderate benefit to the Filipinos in the peace talks with the MILF.

Majorities in BaSulTa areas think that there is much or moderate benefit to the Filipinos in the peace process with the MILF. In particular, those saying that there is much benefit are higher in Basilan (36%) and Tawi-Tawi (36%) compared to Isabela City (23%) and Sulu (20%). [Chart 43]

Those saying that there is moderate benefit do not differ much between Basilan (43%), Isabela City (41%), Tawi-Tawi (40%) and Sulu (39%).

On the other hand, those saying that there is little benefit are higher in Sulu (33%) and Isabela City (28%) compared to Tawi-Tawi (17%) and Basilan (15%).

Those saying that there is no benefit at all do not differ much between Sulu (9%), Tawi-Tawi (7%), Isabela City (6%) and Basilan (5%).

Much larger majorities in Central Mindanao areas think that there is much or moderate benefit to the Filipinos in the peace talks with the MILF. In particular, those saying that there is much benefit are higher in Lanao del Sur (84%), Cotabato near ARMM (80%) and Maguindanao (76%) compared to Cotabato City (63%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (63%).

Those saying that there is moderate benefit are higher in Cotabato City (31%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (28%) compared to Maguindanao (21%), Cotabato near ARMM (17%) and Lanao del Sur (11%).

On the Chart 43 other hand, those saying that there EXTENT OF BENEFIT OF THE PEACE TALKS WITH THE MILF TO THE is little benefit do FILIPINOS, PHILIPPINES (MAR 2015) AND CORE TERRITORIES (FEB 2015) not differ much between Cotabato Much Moderate A little No benefit benefit benefit benefit at all City (4%), Lanao del Norte near ARMM Philippines 16 26 21 35 (4%), Lanao del Sur Sulu 20 39 33 9 (3%), Cotabato near Basilan 36 43 15 5 ARMM (3%) and Maguindanao (1%). Isabela City 23 41 28 6 Tawi-Tawi 36 40 17 7 Those Lanao del Sur 84 11 31 saying that there Maguindanao 76 21 12 is no benefit at all do not differ much Cotabato City 63 31 4 2 between Lanao del LDN near ARMM 63 28 4 5 Norte near ARMM Cot. Near ARMM 80 17 30

(5%), Maguindanao Q: Sa inyong palagay, ang isinasagawa bang usap-pangkapayapaan o “peace talks” sa MILF ay magbubunga ng (2%),Cotabato City MALAKING KABUTIHAN, KATAMTAMANG KABUTIHAN, MALIIT NA KABUTIHAN O WALANG KABUTIHAN para sa mga Pilipino? (2%) and Lanao del Sur (1%), while there were none in Cotabato near ARMM.

36 Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

Hope in the Passage of the Bangsamoro Basic Law Despite the Mamasapano Incident

Majorities in most of the Core territories are hopeful that Congress can still pass the Bangsamoro Basic Law or BBL despite the death of the 44 members of the Special Action Force of the Philippine National Police in Mamasapano, Maguindanao.

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that majorities in most of the Core territories are hopeful that Congress can still pass the Bangsamoro Basic Law or BBL despite the death of the 44 members of the Special Action Force of the Philippine National Police in Mamasapano, Maguindanao. [Chart 44]

In BaSulTa areas, majorities in Basilan, Tawi-Tawi and Isabela City are hopeful that Congress can still pass the BBL despite the death of the 44 SAF members of the PNP in Mamasapano. In particular, those very hopeful are higher in Basilan (23%) and Tawi-Tawi (22%) compared to Isabela City (12%) and Sulu (8%).

Those somewhat hopeful are higher in Basilan (46%) compared to Isabela City (42%), Tawi-Tawi (40%) and Sulu (36%).

On the other hand, those somewhat not hopeful are higher in Sulu (50%) compared to Isabela City (37%), Tawi-Tawi (28%) and Basilan (26%).

Those not hopeful at all is slightly higher in Tawi-Tawi (10%) and Isabela City (9%), compared to Sulu (6%) and Basilan (5%).

Much larger majorities in Central Mindanao areas are hopeful that Congress can still pass the BBL despite the death of the 44 SAF members of the PNP in Mamasapano. In particular, those very hopeful are higher in Cotabato near ARMM (79%) and Lanao del Sur (70%) compared to Maguindanao (54%), Cotabato City (48%) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (41%).

Those somewhat hopeful are higher in Cotabato City (34%), Lanao del Norte near ARMM (33%) and Maguindanao (28%) compared to Lanao del Sur (21%) and Cotabato near ARMM (15%).

On the Chart 44 other hand, those somewhat not HOPE THAT CONGRESS CAN STILL PASS THE BANGSAMORO hopeful are higher BASIC LAW (BBL) DESPITE THE DEATH OF THE 44 PNP-SAF, in Lanao del CORE TERRITORIES, FEB 2015 Norte near ARMM Very Somewhat Somewhat not Not hopeful (19%), Cotabato hopeful hopeful hopeful at all City (14%) and Maguindanao Sulu 8 36 50 6 (13%) compared Basilan 23 46 26 5 to Lanao del Sur 12 42 37 9 (4%) and Cotabato Isabela City near ARMM (4%). Tawi-Tawi 22 40 28 10 Lanao del Sur 70 21 4 5 Those not Maguindanao 13 hopeful at all are 54 28 5 slightly higher in Cotabato City 48 34 14 2 Lanao del Norte LDN near ARMM 41 33 19 8 near ARMM (8%), Cot. Near ARMM Lanao del Sur (5%) 79 15 4 3 and Maguindanao Q Kayo po ba ay… (SHOWCARD) na maipapasa pa ng Kongreso ang Bangsamoro Basic Law o BBL sa kabila ng pagkamatay ng 44 na miyembro ng Special Action Force o SAF ng Philippine National Police (PNP) sa Mamasapano, (5%) compared Maguindanao? TALAGANG UMAASA, MEDYO UMAASA, MEDYO HINDI UMAASA, TALAGANG HINDI UMAASA to Cotabato near ARMM (3%) and Cotabato City (2%).

Social Weather Stations 37 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

Pluralities to majorities in most of the Core territories believe that the Peace Agreement between the Government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front can still be successful despite the death of the 44 members of the Special Action Force of the Philippine National Police in Mamasapano, Maguindanao.

The February 2015 survey of special Mindanao areas found that pluralities to majorities in most of the Core territories believe that the Peace Agreement between the Government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front can still be successful despite the death of the 44 members of the Special Action Force of the Philippine National Police in Mamasapano, Maguindanao.

Those in BaSulTa areas lean toward believing that the Peace Agreement between the Government and the MILF can still be successful despite the death of the 44 SAF members of the PNP in Mamasapano. In particular, net scores (% believe minus % do not believe) are higher in Basilan (+38) and Tawi-Tawi (+31) compared to Sulu (+24) and Isabela City (+20). However, it should be noted that the majority of 52% in Sulu are undecided on the issue, and therefore, the +24 net score indicates the opinion of the minority. [Chart 45]

To a greater degree, those in Central Mindanao areas lean toward believing that the Peace Agreement between the Government and the MILF can still be successful despite the death of the 44 SAF members of the PNP in Mamasapano. In particular, net scores are higher in Cotabato near ARMM (+83) and Lanao del Sur (+75) compared to Cotabato City (+62), Maguindanao (+55) and Lanao del Norte near ARMM (+47).

Chart 45

BELIEF THAT THE PEACE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT AND THE MILF CAN STILL BE SUCCESSFUL DESPITE THE DEATH OF THE 44 MEMBERS OF THE PNP-SAF, CORE TERRITORIES, FEB 2015 Do not Believe Undecided believe Net* Sulu 36 52 12 +24 Basilan 52 34 14 +38 Isabela City 42 36 22 +20

Tawi-Tawi 49 32 18 +31 Lanao del Sur 84 7 9 +75 Maguindanao 66 23 11 +55 Cotabato City 68 25 6 +62 LDN near ARMM 63 21 16 +47

Cot. near ARMM 87 8 5 +83 *Net figures (% Believe minus % Do not Believe) correctly rounded. Q: Kayo po ba ay… (SHOWCARD) na magiging matagumpay pa din ang kasunduang kapayapaan ng pamahalaan at ng Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) sa kabila ng pagkamatay ng 44 na miyembro ng Special Action Force o SAF ng Philippine National Police (PNP) sa Mamasapano, Maguindanao? (LUBOS NA NANINIWALA, MEDYO NANINIWALA, HINDI TIYAK KUNG NANINIWALA O HINDI, MEDYO HINDI NANINIWALA, LUBOS NA HINDI NANINIWALA)

38 Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

A NNEx A: SurvE y BACkgrO u N d

The last five years saw both the government of the Philippines and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front or MILF take major steps in attaining a peace agreement that would benefit all Filipinos. In 2012, the government of the Philippines and MILF signed the initial agreement or Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro or FAB that seeks an expanded autonomous area which will be called Bangsamoro. In 2013, the nation witnessed several significant events: a) the synchronization of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao or ARMM Elections with the May 13 general elections for the first time, b) the signing of the FAB Annexes by the government of the Philippines and MILF, and c) the Zamboanga Siege by the Moro National Liberation Front or MNLF that threatened the peace negotiations. In 2014, the nation witnessed the signing of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro or CAB by the government of the Philippines and MILF and the submission of the draft Bangsamoro Basic Law or BBL to Congress leaders by President Benigno Aquino III himself. In 2015, however, a clash in Mamasapano, Maguindanao occurred between the Special Action Force (SAF) of the Philippine National Police and some members of the MILF and Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) because of the SAF mission to kill/arrest two wanted terrorists. This incident caused Congress to postpone the passage of the BBL, thus endangering the peace process between the government and the MILF.

With all of these Table 1 developments in mind, The Asia Foundation saw the need to record Special Mindanao Survey, Feb 2015 the voice and opinion of Filipinos Fieldwork Sample Error regarding the still ongoing peace Dates Sizes Margins process between the government Total : Feb 22-Mar 1 1,900 ± 2% and the MILF. The Asia Foundation Core Territories : Feb 22-Mar 1 1,500 ± 3 supported its longtime partner, Sulu : Feb 22-Mar 1 200 ± 7 Social Weather Stations (SWS) to Basilan : Feb 22-Mar 1 200 ± 7 Isabela City : Feb 22-Mar 1 200 ± 7 conduct a special survey in: a) Tawi-Tawi : Feb 22-Mar 1 200 ± 7 Core Bangsamoro territories and Lanao Del Sur : Feb 22-Mar 1 100 ± 10 nearby areas in Mindanao; and b) Maguindanao : Feb 22-Mar 1 100 ± 10 Cotabato City : Feb 22-Mar 1 200 ± 7 Implement rider questions in its Lanao Norte near ARMM : Feb 22-28 150 ± 8 first quarter Social Weather Survey, Cotabato near ARMM : Feb 22-28 150 ± 8 in light of the recent developments Nearby Areas : Feb 22-28 400 ± 5 in the passage of the Bangsamoro Zamboanga City : Feb 22-28 100 ±10 Rest of Lanao Norte : Feb 22-28 150 ± 8 Basic Law and the aftermath of the Rest of Cotabato : Feb 22-28 150 ± 8 Mamasapano Incident.

The survey of core Bangsamoro territories and nearby areas had a total sample size of Table 2 1,900. The Core Bangsamoro territories consisted of 200 in Sulu, 200 in Basilan, 200 in Isabela City, First Quarter 2015 200 in Tawi-Tawi, 100 in Lanao del Sur, 100 in Maguindanao, 200 Social Weather Survey in Cotabato City, 150 in Lanao del Norte near ARMM, and 150 in Fieldwork Sample Error Cotabato near ARMM. The Nearby Dates Sizes Margins areas, meanwhile, consisted of 100 Philippines : Mar 20-23 1,200 ± 3% in Zamboanga City, 150 in the rest of Lanao del Norte, and 150 in the rest Metro Manila : Mar 20-23 300 ± 6 of Cotabato. On the other hand, the Balance Luzon : Mar 20-23 300 ± 6 First Quarter Social Weather Survey Visayas : Mar 20-23 300 ± 6 had a total sample size of 1,200, with Mindanao : Mar 20-23 300 ± 6 300 people each for Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao. [Tables 1-2]

Social Weather Stations 39 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

The survey questionnaire for the core Bangsamoro areas and nearby areas in Mindanao, as well as the rider questions in the first quarter Social Weather Survey were developed in collaboration with TAF. Relevant questions to the subject were also included through SWS’ own initiative. The surveys included the following topics:

Satisfaction with the National Administration and Effective Means in Dealing with the MILF: This section asked about public satisfaction with the general performance of the national administration, as well as on selected peace issues: defending the country’s territorial rights, reconciliation with Muslim rebels, and reconciliation with communist rebels. In addition, it asked about effective means in dealing with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, whether peaceful means, military operations, or both.

Views on Islam: This asked about whether one has a favorable opinion of Islam or not, and extent of one’s knowledge of the teachings and beliefs of Islam.

Disposition Toward the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro and the Bangsamoro Basic Law: This asked about one’s approval or disapproval of the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro (FAB), and the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL). It also asked about one’s agreement or disagreement regarding specific FAB proposals such as: the dissolution of ARMM which willbe replaced by an expanded autonomous area which will be called Bangsamoro, using Shari’ah not only in divorce and inheritance cases but also in other cases in the Bangsamoro, implementing an own banking system like Islamic banking, having own rules for all the government employees in Bangsamoro, the election of a leader who will be called Chief Minister who will be elected by the legislators instead of directly by the voters, having a new police force for the Bangsamoro, and reducing the number of AFP soldiers in the Bangsamoro area. This section also asked about the extent of one’s knowledge about the FAB, FAB’s Annexes, the proposed BBL, extent of reading the BBL’s provisions, and experience of going to any meeting/consultation regarding the BBL. In addition, it asked about belief on whether the Bangsamoro will represent the interest of all residents of the area like Lumads, Christians and Muslims, and whether the fulfillment of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) will curb the spread of terrorist groups like the Abu Sayyaf in the country.

The Mamasapano Incident: This section probed into public trust in institutions/groups investigating the Mamasapano Incident to give a fair decision regarding the case: the PNP Board of Inquiry or BOI, the Senate investigation, the House of Representatives investigation, and the MILF investigation. It also asked about persons/groups/institutions that should be held accountable for the Mamasapano Incident.

Disposition Toward the Moro Islamic Liberation Front: This asked about public trust in the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, and opinion on the sincerity of government and the MILF in following the provisions of their signed peace agreement. It also asked about one’s belief on whether the MILF is not helping any terrorist group believed to be operating in the country, whether the MILF will give up its armed struggle and join the democratic process of governance through elections for the Bangsamoro, whether the MILF will accept the outcome of the Bangsamoro elections even if they do not win, reliability of the MILF to take care of non-Muslims once the Bangsamoro area is established, and reliability of the MILF to arrest whoever violates the law, whether MILF members or not, once the Bangsamoro area is established.

Hope for the Bangsamoro: SWS and TAF also included questions on the extent of hope that the new Bangsamoro government will bring peace and development in its areas after May 2016, the extent of benefit of the peace talks with the MILF to Filipinos, level of hope that Congress can still pass the Bangsamoro Basic Law despite the death of the 44 PNP-SAF, and finally, belief that the peace agreement between the government and the MILF can still be successful despite the death of the 44 members of the PNP-SAF.

40 Social Weather Stations SWS February, March aND JuNe 2015 SurveyS

A NNEx B: S OCIO- dEm O grA phIC p rOFIl E OF AdulT rESp ONd ENTS

In the March 2015 Social Weather Survey, after applying census weights, 13% of the adult respondents are youth (18-24), 19% are intermediate youth (25-34), 24% are middle-aged (35-44), 18% are 45 to 54 years old, and 27% are 55 years old and above. [Table 3]

In the February 2015 special Mindanao survey, 16% are youth (18-24), 24% are intermediate youth (25-34), 26% are middle-aged (35-44), 17% are 45 to 54 years old, and 17% are 55 years old and above.

In March 2015, 77% are class D or the masa, 17% are class E, and 5% are class ABC.

In February 2015, 55% are class D or the masa, 41% are class E, and 4% are class ABC.

In March 2015, 14% had at most some elementary education; 29% finished elementary education/ had some high school education; 44% finished high school/completed vocational school/attended some college, and 13% graduated from college or took post-graduate studies.

In February 2015, nearly a third (32%) of respondents have at most some elementary education, 26% either finished elementary education or have some high school education, 31% either finished high school, completed vocational school, or attended some college, and 12% either have a college degree or post-graduate studies.

Table 3

AGE, CLASS, EDUCATION, AGE, CLASS, EDUCATION, SPECIAL PHILIPPINES, MAR 2015 MINDANAO SURVEY, FEB 2015

Age Age 18-24 13% 18-24 16% 25-34 19 25-34 24 35-44 24 35-44 26 45-54 18 45-54 17 55 and above 27 55 and above 17

Economic Class Economic Class ABC 5 ABC 4 D 77 D 55 E 17 E 41

Education Education None/Some elem. 14 None/Some elem. 32 Elem. grad./Some HS 29 Elem. grad./Some HS 26 HS/Voc. grad./Some coll. 44 HS/Voc. grad./Some coll. 31 Coll. grad./Post coll. 13 Coll. Grad./Post coll. 12

Social Weather Stations 41 Filipino public opinion on the bangsamoro basic law and the mamasapano incident

Thirty-nine percent say they read Arabic, 35% write Arabic, 31% understand spoken Arabic, 24% speak Arabic, and 24% think in Arabic. A majority of 52% say none of these apply to them. [Table 4]

Seventy-seven percent say they read English, 71% write English, 67% understand spoken English, 56% speak English, and 48% think in English. Only 16% say none of these apply to them.

Among non- Table 4 Muslims, 56% are regular churchgoers, of which 17% ARABIC AND ENGLISH PROFICIENCY, AND ATTENDANCE AT attend religious services RELIGIOUS SERVICES, SPECIAL MINDANAO SURVEY, FEB 2015 several times a week, and 39% attend once a week. The balance of 44% are Arabic Proficiency Attendance at Religious Services Reads Arabic 39% (Base: Non-Muslims) occasional churchgoers, Writes Arabic 35 Several times a week 17% of which 19% attend Understands spoken Arabic 31 Once a week 39 religious services 2-3 Speaks Arabic 24 2-3 times a month 19 times a month, 11% attend Thinks in Arabic 24 Once a month 11 None applies 52 Several times a year 3 monthly, 3% attend several Once a year 3 times a year, 3% attend English Proficiency Less frequently 8 once a year, and 8% attend Reads English 77 Never - less frequently. Writes English 71 Understands spoken English 67 Speaks English 56 Among non- Thinks in English 48 Muslims, 29% pray several None Applies 16 times a day, 29% pray once a day, 13% pray several times a week, 15% pray every week, 5% pray nearly every week, 3% pray 2-3 times a month, 2% pray about once a month, 1% pray several times a Table 5 year, 1% pray about 1-2 times a year, 1% pray less FREQUENCY OF PRAYING, READING THE BIBLE, PRAYING THE SALAH, than once a year, and 0.2% AND READING THE QUR’AN, SPECIAL MINDANAO SURVEY, FEB 2015 never do. [Table 5] Frequency of Praying Frequency of Praying the Salah (Base: Non-Muslims) (Base: Muslims) Of the non- Several times a day 29% Five times everyday 46% Once a day 29 Muslims, 9% read the bible Several times a week 13 A few times everyday 20 daily, 29% read weekly, Every week 15 Sometimes 29 Nearly every week 5 Only during Ramadan 3 13% read monthly, 12% 2-3 times a month 3 More than a year ago 1 read a few times a year, About once a month 2 Never 1 Several times a year 1 17% read once a year, and About once or twice a year 1 Frequency of Reading the Qur’an 19% read less frequently. Less than once a year 1 (Base: Muslims) Never 0.2 Daily 19 Weekly 19 Among Muslims, Frequency of Reading the Bible (Base: Non-Muslims) Monthly 9 46% pray the Salah five Daily 9 A few times a year 9 times every day, 20% pray Weekly 29 Once a year 12 Monthly 13 Less frequently 31 the Salah a few times A few times a year 12 Never/Can’t read 1 Once a year 17 every day, 29% pray the Less frequently 19 Salah sometimes, 3% pray Never/Can’t read - the Salah only during Ramadan, and 1% never pray. Only 1% say they last prayed the Salah more than a year ago.

Of the Muslims, 19% read the Qur’an daily, 19% read weekly, 9% read monthly, 9% read a few times a year, 12% read once a year, 31% read less frequently, and 1% never/cannot read.

42 Social Weather Stations T h E STAk E h O ldE r S OF BANg SAm O rO

Social Weather Stations 52 Malingap Street, Sikatuna Village Steven Rood Diliman, Quezon City Nadine Ragonjan 1101 Philippines Derkie Alfonso Christian Hope Reyes Tel: (632) 942-4465/56; (632) 924-4458 Fax: (632) 920-2181 Website: http://www.sws.org.ph socialweatherstations socialweatherph Vladymir Joseph Licudine Mahar Mangahas Founded in 1985, Social Weather Stations is the Philippine’s leading survey research Christian Michael Entoma institute on Quality of Life, Public Opinion, and Governance. It defines its mission as Christine Belle Torres generating new survey data along key social concerns for the three purposes of: Germelita M. Caron Gerardo A. Sandoval Education: So eyes may see social conditions Aileen Montibon Conscientization: So hearts may feel social problems Joanne Evangelista Analysis: So minds may understand their solutions

SWS is a private, non-stock, non-profit, and politically non-partisan scientific institute engaged in research, analysis, training, and outreach activities; it is an officially accredited Donee Institution. SWS datasets and publications are available to the public at the SWS Survey Data Library. SWS represents the Philippines in the International Social Survey Programme, the World Values Survey, the Asian Barometer, and other cross-country survey networks.