VYTAUTAS MAGNUS UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF POLITICAL SCIENCE AND DIPLOMACY DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCES

Gediminas Laskauskas

THE U.S. RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA'S INFLUENCE IN LATIN AMERICA: CASE OF BRAZIL

Master's thesis

Diplomacy and International Relations program, state code 621L20004 Political sciences study field

Supervisor Dr. Gerda Jakštaitė ______

Defended Prof. Dr. Šarūnas Liekis ______

Kaunas, 2015

CONTENT

SUMMARY ...... 3 SANTRAUKA ...... 5 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ...... 7 INTRODUCTION ...... 8 1. REALISM AND THE ROLE OF STRATEGY IN FOREIGN POLICY ...... 13 1.1. The theoretical background of realism ...... 13 1.2. Foreign policy strategy ...... 16 2. FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE U.S. POLICY IN LATIN AMERICA ...... 23 2.1. Historical background of US-Latin America relations ...... 23 2.2. Reasons for the US policy in bilateral relations with Brazil ...... 28 3. THE DECLARED U.S. AND CHINA'S NATIONAL INTERESTS IN LATIN AMERICA ..... 31 3.1. The declared US interests in Latin America and Brazil ...... 31 3.1.1. Formation of the US foreign policy ...... 31 3.1.2. The US interests declared in the National Security Strategy (NSS) documents ...... 33 3.1.3. The annual speeches of US president (2009-2015) ...... 39 3.2. The declared China's national interests in Latin America ...... 44 3.3. The intersection of the declared US and China's interests in Latin America and Brazil ...... 46 4. THE U.S. AND CHINA'S ACTIVITIES IN LATIN AMERICA REGION ...... 54 4.1. The US activities in Latin America in the case of Brazil ...... 54 4.1.1. The US practical actions in Latin America region (tools, formats) ...... 54 4.1.2. The US practical actions in relations with Brazil: political, economic and security areas ...... 61 4.2. China's activities in Latin America and in relations with Brazil ...... 73 5. THE EVALUATION OF U.S. POLICY IN LATIN AMERICA ...... 80 5.1. The evaluation of the practical implementation of US foreign policy in Latin America ...... 80 5.2. Relevant problems and the current course of US foreign policy ...... 82 5.3. The US-China competition for Latin America ...... 85 CONCLUSIONS ...... 90 LIST OF LITERATURE AND REFERENCES ...... 93 ANNEXES ...... 105

Laskauskas, G. The U.S. response to the development of China's influence in Latin America: case of Brazil: Master's Thesis in Diplomacy and International Relations / supervisor Dr. Gerda Jakštaitė; Vytautas Magnus University, Faculty of Political Science and Diplomacy, Department of Political Science. Kaunas, 2015. 104 p.

SUMMARY

This paper examines the U.S. response to the development of China's influence in Latin America and in Brazilian case in particular. Latin America is key to the US hegemony and in the last decade its influence in this region is declining. This is explained by global economic crisis and war on terror which distracted US focus on other matters. With the coming of President B. Obama in office, a new foreign policy course has been expected. It should be highlighted that relations with Brazil are very important for the US to pursue its interests in the context of Latin America and globally. However, recently the US economic dominance in Latin America is rivaled by China. Therefore, it is not clear whether the US succeeds in pursuing its strategic interests and opposing China's growing influence in Latin America. Thus the object of the research is U.S. national interests and policy in Latin America since 2009 and rivalry with China. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the pursuit of the U.S. interests in Latin America region and Brazil in strategic and actual terms in the context of its rivalry with China. The following tasks are raised in order to achieve this goal: to introduce to the theoretical background of political realism in international relations and the role of strategy in foreign policy; to discuss the factors that influence U.S. policy in Latin America and in Brazil in particular; to analyze U.S. and China's national interests in Latin America; to examine the U.S. and China's activities in Latin America region in pursuing its interests; to evaluate the U.S. foreign policy in Latin America and analyze the impact of growing China's influence in this region. The analysis of scientific literature revealed that the US-Latin America relationship historically has been marked by principles of inequality, economic disadvantages and political influence, where the US takes a dominant position. Nevertheless, the context is changing and poses new challenges - China's activities in the region (a clear example is Brazil, because China surpassed the US in trade). The problem is that the US does not reach FTA, despite that US-Brazil relationship include more aspects than with China. Generally, interests by China are more pragmatic, based on its own growth or reach for diplomatic support, while the US is interested in safe, democratic and prosperous neighborhood. It could be argued that US and China's interests collide mainly in economic area. The US response to China's activities is a broader, multi-faceted foreign policy, oriented not only to the presence in the region, but also to the resolution of various problems. Meanwhile China is preoccupied with its ambition to become more important player in the world, to secure a smooth

3 economic growth and etc. Actually, the US president B. Obama continues a controversial foreign policy, intervening into the affairs of Latin American countries, though, it moves toward equal treatment of its partners. The decline of US hegemony in region is likely to continue both for domestic and external reasons. The US and China so far have sought for cooperation rather than confrontation, but there is potential for escalation in future as China takes more firm positions.

4 Laskauskas, G. JAV atsakas į Kinijos įtakos plėtrą Lotynų Amerikoje: Brazilijos atvejis: Diplomatijos ir tarptautinių santykių magistro baigiamasis darbas / vadovė Dr. Gerda Jakštaitė; Vytauto Didţiojo universitetas, Politikos mokslų ir diplomatijos fakultetas, Politologijos katedra. Kaunas, 2015. 104 p.

SANTRAUKA

Šiame magistro darbe nagrinėjamas JAV atsakas į Kinijos įtakos plėtrą Lotynų Amerikoje, ypač Brazilijos atveju. Lotynų Amerika yra itin svarbi JAV hegemonijai, tačiau pastarąjį dešimtmetį jos įtaka šiame regione maţėja. Prie to prisidėjo pasaulinė ekonominė krizė ir karas su terorizmu, ši veiksniai nukreipė JAV dėmesį į kitus dalykus. Su B. Obamos atėjimu valdţią, buvo tikimasi naujo uţsienio politikos kurso. Verta pabrėţti, jog santykiai su Brazilija yra labai svarbūs JAV siekti interesų Lotynų Amerikos kontekste ir visame pasaulyje. Tačiau šiuo metu ekonominiam JAV dominavimui Lotynų Amerikoje sudaro konkurenciją Kinija. Todėl nėra aišku ar JAV pavyksta įgyvendinti savo strateginius interesus ir priešintis augančiai Kinijos įtakai Lotynų Amerikoje. Taigi, tyrimo objektas darbe yra JAV nacionaliniai interesai ir politika Lotynų Amerikoje nuo 2009 m. ir konkurencija su Kinija. Pagrindinis tikslas yra išanalizuoti JAV interesų įgyvendinimą Lotynų Amerikos regione ir Brazilijos atveju strateginiu ir realiu poţiūriu konkuruojant su Kinija. Šie uţdaviniai keliami pasiekti išsikeltą tikslą: pristatyti teorinį politinio realizmo kontekstą tarptautiniuose santykiuose ir strategijos vaidmenį uţsienio politikoje; atarti veiksnius, kurie daro įtaką JAV politikai Lotynų Amerikoje ir Brazilijoje; išanalizuoti JAV ir Kinijos nacionalinius interesus Lotynų Amerikoje; išnagrinėti JAV ir Kinijos veiksmus Lotynų Amerikos regione siekiant savo interesų; įvertinti JAV uţsienio politiką Lotynų Amerikoje ir augančios Kinijos įtakos šiame regione poveikį. Mokslinės literatūros analizė parodė, kad JAV ir Lotynų Amerikos santykiai istoriškai buvo paţymėti nelygybės, ekonominių kliūčių ir politinės įtakos principais, kai JAV uţima dominuojančią padėtį. Nepaisant to, kontekstas keičiasi ir kyla naujų iššūkių - pvz. Kinijos veiksmas regione (aiškus pavyzdys yra Brazilija, nes Kinija pralenkė prekyboje JAV). Problema yra ta, kad JAV nepasiekia Laisvosios prekybos sutarties, nepaisant to JAV ir Brazilijos santykiai apima daugiau aspektų nei su Kinija. Apskritai vertinant, Kinijos interesai yra labiau pragmatiški, paremti savo augimo strategija arba siekiu įgyti diplomatinę paramą, tuo tarpu JAV yra suinteresuota saugia, demokratiška ir klestinčia kaimynyste. Galima teigti, jog JAV ir Kinijos interesai daugiausia susikerta ekonominėje srityje. JAV atsakas į Kinijos veiklą yra platesnė, įvairiapusė uţsienio politika, orientuota ne tik į buvimą regione, bet ir įvairių problemų sprendimą. Tuo tarpu Kinija yra susirūpinusi savo ambicijomis tapti svarbesniu ţaidėju pasaulyje, uţsitikrinti sklandų ekonomikos augimą ir t.t. Iš esmės, galima pastebėti, kad JAV prezidentas B. Obama ir toliau vykdo prieštaringą uţsienio politiką, besikišančią

5 į Lotynų Amerikos šalių reikalus, vis dėlto, pereinama prie lygiaverčio poţiūrio į savo partnerius. JAV hegemonijos nuosmukis regione gali tęstis tiek dėl vidinių, tiek išorinių prieţasčių. JAV ir Kinija iki šiol stengėsi bendradarbiauti, o ne konfrontuoti, tačiau egzistuoja tam tikra eskalavimo galimybė ateityje, nes Kinija uţima vis tvirtesnes pozicijas.

6 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

BRICS - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa FTA - the Free Trade Agreement FTAA - the Free Trade Area of the Americas MERCOSUR - the Common Market of the Southern Cone NAFTA - the North American Free Trade Agreement NSA - the National Security Agency TPP - the Trans-Pacific Partnership UN - the United Nations UNASUR - the Union of South American Nations US - the United States WTO - the World Trade Organization

7 INTRODUCTION

Relevance of the topic. The United States of America (further – US) ability to cope with challenges of the XXIth century is inevitably related to the implementation of foreign policy where strategy and national interests play an important role. Historically, namely a selection of convenient instruments of foreign policy and expansion to other regions allowed embedding political and economic power of a state. A successful regional policy in Latin America largely accounted for this process. However, it is now acknowledged that the US influence has considerably decreased. A rapid growth of Latin American countries, the emergence of China's influence and US pragmatic position force to look up for new opportunities to achieve a beneficial cooperation with some of the main countries of the region. Latin America is key to the US hegemony. In 2011, US president B. Obama stated “I believe that Latin America is more important to the prosperity and security of the United States than ever before. With no other region does the United States have so many connections.”1 Given the gradual end of military operations in the Middle East, it can be seen as a higher priority for neighborhood policy. At the moment, the US tries to forge a stable trading relationship with a regional leader Brazil. It should be highlighted that relations with Brazil are very important for the US to pursue its interests in the context of Latin America and globally. However, in 2013 confidential information has been disclosed about US intelligence espionage of Latin American countries. Such actions show ambiguous behavior which does not ensure confidence and undermine the relationship. Moreover, some disputes over economic policies or military activities exist in bilateral US relations with Latin American countries. Not of secondary importance is the growing China's activities and influence in the region. Therefore, it is important to assess the context of relationship, main US priorities in the region and emerging problems. Relevance and originality of the topic. It can be emphasized that the 21st century offers a changing context of international system, with new powers emerging and issues that are discussed in bilateral, regional and international levels. At the same time there are new challenges posing threats to peace, prosperity and values. Currently, it is interested to follow the competition between the US and China in various fields. Traditionally, this kind of rivalry for influence between the US and China is viewed in the context of Asia region (the US supports South Korea, Japan, while China allies with North Korea), in Africa and other parts of the world. However, Latin America region as a possible starting point for analysis is rarely chosen and barely analyzed subject.

1 President Obama‟s Santiago Speech: "The Latin America That I See Today" (Santiago, Chile, March 21, 2011), The White House Blog. Found: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/03/22/president-obama-s-santiago-speech-latin- america-i-see-today; seen: 2014-07-18

8 Latin America as a region with its diverse background is little understood and researched in Lithuania. It is worth to mention that Dr. Gintarė Ţukaitė analyzed the clash of interests by the US and Latin American countries and social movements in this region. The topic of this final work of Masters studies focuses on the US policy in Latin America, its influence and Brazil has been selected as a particular case to illustrate that. Moreover, the increasing China's activities and presence in the region and its impact on the US influence in Latin America is assessed. In a broader academic context, a more detailed focus on this specific aspect of US foreign policy in Latin America is lacking. Therefore, it can be stated and expected that the analysis and outcomes of the research would contribute to the examination of the US foreign policy, Latin America (in general and case of Brazil) and features of China's growing influence. Problem of the thesis. Over the past decade, the US influence in Latin America region is gradually declining. This trend is associated with both internal and external causes – deep global economic crisis and wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. With the coming of President B. Obama to power, an adoption of new foreign policy strategy and course has been expected. And although some kind of improvement of US-Latin America relationship and more active economic cooperation can be seen, but there is still a variety of problems. The US is trying to get rid of a hegemonic approach to Latin American countries and aims to treat them as equal partners. Despite that, political realism approach still prevails. However, recently the US economic dominance in Latin America is rivaled by China. With the recently proactive China's actions in the region and lack of integrity in US policy towards Latin America, the future of control over this region is unclear. For these reasons, the actual question is whether the US succeeds in pursuing strategic interests and opposing China's growing influence in Latin America, particularly in bilateral relations with Brazil. Object of the research – U.S. national interests and policy in Latin America since 2009 and rivalry with China. That year mark the beginning of the presidency of Barack Obama. He was reelected for a second term in office in 2013. In this paper, a closer look is taken to the US bilateral relations with Brazil. This case has been chosen to illustrate the US policy instruments and general strategic approach towards Latin America region. According to the statistics, the US is a second trade partner for Brazil after China. The importance of Brazil is growing notably and the US seeks more comprehensive relations with this country. The vision of master's thesis is to choose one of the three major trading partners for US within Latin America and evaluate foreign policy methods applied by the US. The work does not include Mexico (neighboring country) which is the main US trading partner not only within Latin America, but in total places 3d after Canada and China. Colombia is the third trade partner for US from Latin American countries, but it is a key ally in the region. Namely, in this work a particular focus is given to Brazilian case. China and its interests has

9 been added to the analysis in this work due to its growing close economic ties with most of the Latin American countries and, in turn, creating an alternative to historically obvious US dominance in the region. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the pursuit of the U.S. interests in Latin America region and Brazil in strategic and actual terms in the context of its rivalry with China. In order to reveal the purpose of work, the following tasks of the research are being set: 1) to introduce to the theoretical background of political realism in international relations and the role of strategy in foreign policy; 2) to discuss the factors that influence U.S. policy in Latin America and in Brazil in particular; 3) to analyze U.S. and China's national interests in Latin America; 4) to examine the U.S. and China's activities in Latin America region in pursuing its interests; 5) to evaluate the U.S. foreign policy in Latin America and analyze the impact of growing China's influence in this region. Defensive statement/hypothesis. In this paper a statement that the US and China's interests in Latin America intersect chiefly in economic field is being assessed. The case of Brazil has been chosen to illustrate competition for influence. The two states - US and China pursue various interests and apply different methods in foreign policy, but the importance of economic cooperation is growing. Therefore, it is interesting to observe this aspect. Theoretical background, explanation of research and applied methods. Methods that are used in this work are the description of the theory of realism in international relations, the analysis of scientific literature about foreign policy strategy and discourse towards the US and China's policy in Latin America. Moreover, in the research part case study of US bilateral relations with Brazil is presented. Different types of methods have been applied such as document analysis (State of the Union Addresses in period 2009-2015 and National Security Strategy documents in 2010 and 2015), event-data set (to ascertain the bilateral agenda between the US and Brazil) and interview with experts (to illustrate and express the positions of countries). Prof. Thomas A. Breslin at Florida International University and Dr. Paul Bonicelli from Regent University, a former assistant administrator for the United States Agency for International Development's (USAID) Bureau of Latin America and the Caribbean were interviewed in written and verbal forms, by sending an email with prepared questions by making a Skype video call. It should be noted that Dr. Paul Bonicelli was a student of Henry Kissinger, worked in president G. W. Bush administration and also in the United Nations General Assembly, therefore, his insights reflect all-round material about the US foreign policy. This should allow to present objective, actual and corresponding to the reality information about the theoretical and practical aspects of this topic.

10 The classical realism perspective has been chosen to analyze current US bilateral relations with Latin American countries, because mainly the ideas of this particular theory historically shaped US foreign policy. Also, it is a good tool to explain the behavior of states in anarchic system. This final paper is composed of taking a general overview of US and China's interests in Latin America. More specifically, policy towards Latin America and case study of Brazil is taken to illustrate the main features. Aspect of China's growing influence in Latin America is considered, as it becomes main rival for US interests and dominance in the region. Generally, the US perspective is taken to view relations with Latin America. A more detailed explanation about how the research is done is provided in the following in an overview of 2d, 3d and 4th chapters, also in 4.1.2 and 5.3 subdivisions. Overview of the literature. Various authors analyze the US foreign policy in Latin America. They observe the changes in relationship, tendencies and the fact that future remains quite uncertain. The US is often criticized for intentions to dominate and impose rules. For example, author A. Rabasa maintains an idea that the US will likely remain engaged militarily in the region (but indirectly), he also agrees that the emergence of new power centers in Latin America is possible. On the contrary, J. S. Tulchin view the US foreign policy more positively and claims that cooperation in some fields reaches new level. Therefore, firstly it is advised to strengthen diplomatic ties. However, the aspect of US and China's competition for influence in Latin America is still not widely analyzed, therefore it is expected that this work will find its place among other papers regarding the US policy on Latin America. The thesis refers to various, valuable and relatively new literature. An article by Lithuanian political scientist Vaidotas Urbelis has been reviewed in detail on purpose to discuss features and the role of strategy in foreign policy. It is worth to mention the work of Stewart Brewer “Borders and Bridges: A History of U.S.-Latin American Relations“ which contains historical moments and features of relationship before the election of B. Obama. Meanwhile, for the examination of interests and problems of US foreign policy in Latin America, scientific articles and special reports, mainly Congressional Research Service Reports (CRS) have been used. It is worth to mention that A. R. Coll explains the US interests in Latin America quite coherently. Despite that, other sources were also used – encyclopedias, governmental websites (especially, the U.S. Department of State website where information about the releases pertaining to Brazil were found) and media reports. To support ideas with practical reasoning, a statistical data was provided. Several documents were analyzed such as the Constitution of the United States, National Security Strategy (NSS) and annual president speeches - State of the Union. Structure of the thesis. The research paper consists of five chapters. In the first, a theoretical background of political realism (particularly classical realism) in international relations and the role

11 of strategy in foreign policy are discussed. The second chapter includes the general background of US policy in Latin America and main factors that shape it (historical context, the importance of region for the US and situation in the selected cases). The third chapter of thesis is designed for the comparison of US and China's national interests in Latin America. In the fourth chapter, analysis of US activities in the Latin America region is made. In this part, a specific case of Brazil is analyzed. Finally, in the last chapter a general evaluation of US foreign policy in Latin America is presented. A work is finished by summarizing the findings.

12 1. REALISM AND THE ROLE OF STRATEGY IN FOREIGN

POLICY

Various theories and schools of thought historically played an important role in explaining the behavior of states and other actors in international arena. The theoretical background is said to be useful both for analyzing the interstate politics and reflecting the ideas or principles that prevail in the process of foreign policy-making. Political realism has a long tradition and is considered as one of the most influential theories. Namely a classical realism theory speaks about power, interests. It treats countries as important actors and use particular categories to explain international system. Concepts of balance of power, state centrism, self-interest, anarchy and other are analyzed in this theory. Therefore, in this chapter the theoretical background of realism (particularly classical realism) is discussed, paying attention to key concepts, history, types, main features and criticism. Also, the relevance of realism ideas in political agenda and political science are considered. Despite that the second part of this chapter is devoted for analyzing foreign policy strategies, instruments, and concept of national interest.

1.1. The theoretical background of realism

Analyzing realism is important to note that historically it is not a new theory in international relations having a tradition of nearly 2500 years. The main authors that contributed to the development of this approach are Thucydides, N. Machiavelli, and T. Hobbes. The modern and influential insights were provided by E. H. Carr and H. Morgenthau. Actually, realism is the foundational and other approaches are some kind of response to it. One should notice a diverse intellectual character that combines general theory, subschools like neorealism, and specific theories such as balance of power or security dilemma.2 Such scope shows the influence and importance of this theory. Defining the concept of realism, many scholars agree that it is the oldest and most frequently adopted theory of international relations. S. Burchill claims that “political realism is a tradition of analysis that stresses the imperatives states face to pursue a power politics of the national interest.”3 To be more precise, it is a view of international politics that highlights its competitive and conflictual nature. Traditionally, realism is contrasted with other influential theory – liberalism, which emphasizes cooperation. The distinctive feature realism contains is treating states as primary

2 Dunne, T. Foreign policy: theories, actors, cases, Oxford University Press, 2012. P. 52 3 Burchill, S. Theories of international relations, Palgrave Macmillan, 2005. P. 29

13 actors in the international system. Countries struggle for power, are concerned with own security and pursue their national interests.4 It is worth to mention that themes such as anarchy, the self- interest of actors, the priority of power and pragmatic behavior are common and prevailing in realism.5 These categories might help to study the foreign policy of states. Most popular branch of realism is classical one, which emerged in XXth century to oppose the idealist perspective. The collective attempts to maintain peace with the help of international organizations (the League of Nations and later United Nations) were not effective, therefore interstate relations in terms of security and power were analyzed. This approach recognized the central role of power of all kind, but also the limitations. According to R. Lebow, “it stresses ethical dilemmas and practical implications and the need to base influence, wherever possible, on shared interests and persuasion.”6 Later proponents of neorealism or structuralism added more levels of analysis (individual, state, international system, defensive/offensive realism). The general features of realism include the focus on power and engagement in practical science of politics. What is interesting is that study of international institutions or fields like economics and law is of secondary importance.7 Author T. Dunne gives three assumptions about realism, that it is related to phenomenons of groupism, egoism and power-centrism.8 One idea shows the need for cohesion in order to survive. Moreover, egoist human nature driven by self- interests is underlined, although some form of altruism is also possible. Lastly, power is a central element, usually expressed in social influence or control and possession of resources. Anarchy or absence of world government in international system is said to be an overarching feature, causing specific actions by national states. States are not equal, as a result, some kind of international hierarchy of power exist. Competition between the great powers itself can lead to different outcomes of empire (official political control), hegemony (leadership in the international arena) or balance of power. Such situation when no single state possesses more power than other significantly is beneficial for peace and security because it prevents from dominance.9 Actually, although international rules exist, but in practice in the face of conflictual relations between states due to security issues, it ineffectively restrain power. This shows a skeptical stance towards morality, however, according to classical realists this is not always the case.10

4 Political Realism in International Relations, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 2013. Found: http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/realism-intl-relations/#TweCenClaRea 5 Sutch, P. and Juanita, E. International relations: the basics, Routledge, 2007. P. 44 6 Dunne, T. International relations theories: discipline and diversity, Oxford University Press, 2013. P. 58 7 Sutch, P. Op. cit. P. 43 8 Dunne, T., 2012. Op. cit. P. 36 9 Jackson, R. and Sorensen, G. Introduction to international relations: theories and approaches. Oxford University Press, 2010. P. 71 10 Political Realism in International Relations, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 2013. Found: http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/realism-intl-relations/#TweCenClaRea

14 Values of national security and state survival constitute a normative foundation of realism. Moreover, it influences foreign policy strategies. There is an interesting phenomenon related to security. When countries seek national or global security, it faces with so called security dilemma. Developing the military strength to deter creates fear and threat for neighboring states.11 This situation in turn results in general increase of insecurity, arms race, provocations and escalation. Giving a more clear view of the main statements of classical realists, the ideas of H. Morgenthau should be taken into account. He defined political realism by six principles:12 1) politics works according objective laws that are rooted in fundamental human nature; 2) international relations are analyzed through the concept of interest defined in terms of power; 3) interests defined by power is a universally valid objective category; 4) national survival is more important than the principals of morality; 5) the moral laws of one nation do not govern in the whole system; 6) politic sphere is only for political realists. All these abovementioned points identify the tenets of realism. It is important to make some remarks about the relevance and applicability of realism today. It is evident that as long as conditions of anarchy will last, realism as such will be useful. A proper explanation why ideas of realism remain respected is given by Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy – “whereas classical realism was a theory aimed at supporting diplomatic practice and provided a guide to be followed by those seeking to understand and deal with potential threats, today's theories, concerned with various grand pictures and projects, are ill-suited to perform this task.”13 An interesting tendency in the mainstream of theories can be seen that in the context of globalization and growing political, social and economic interdependence between the states the ideas of liberalism become popular. Mutual cooperation and giving sovereignty to international organizations are important features of contemporary world, but in fact countries fail to sustain peace. When state interests and international obligations clash we can notice the pragmatic political behavior that is best explained by realism. Obviously, like every theory, realism receives criticism. On the one hand, some authors point to its static and amoral nature, on the other hand, theoretical simplicity and targeting only on state- centric system is being criticized. Realists focus on states as the principal actors in international system, also not much attention is paid to the fact that mutual interests are possible. Despite these negative qualities, realism is a substantial theory in explaining the actions of states in global context. Further, planning and formulating foreign policy in the form of strategy is being analyzed.

11 Kenji, O. Security, 2003. Found: http://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/security 12 Morgenthau, H. Politics among nations: the struggle for power and peace, 1985. P. 4-14 13 Political Realism in International Relations, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 2013. Found: http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/realism-intl-relations/#TweCenClaRea

15 1.2. Foreign policy strategy

Typically, every state bases its actions in foreign affairs and internal matters according to some principles, objectives. It has become totally ordinary for states to plan its foreign policy, budget strategically and systematically. The same applies for international organizations and global politics, when countries set global goals in common spheres like economics, trade, environment, security and etc. Generally, this process encompasses the evaluation and involvement of various factors such as threats and opportunities in order to achieve the wanted goals (for instance, the increase of power of a state). The concept of strategy includes different aspects. The online Oxford dictionary defines strategy as some kind of method or plan of action used to achieve a long-term or specific aim.14 It can also imply planning military or other operations. Nevertheless, it is also the art of controlling resources and using all the forces for positive and planned results. Looking to the historical perspective, strategies developed greatly and gained new features. The theory and practice adapted to the variations of relations between the states. In its initial usage, such authors like Sun Tzu or K. von Clausewitz perceived strategies as an art of conduct of war. Until the XXth century military power has been the main strategic component and political instrument for states in their foreign policies. An important development can be seen that later strategies in state planning included not only military aspects, but political, economic and other as well. It is worth to mention that strategy differs from doctrine, which is equated more with ideology, because it determines the main principles by which state politics are guided. Actually, there are different types of strategy. V. Urbelis names four levels of strategy, where the grand strategy takes a special place. A grand (total strategy) is explained as a plan for seeking political goals of war or peace while marshalling all state resources. Here coordination aspect has huge influence. The second level is general strategy which is a projection of national grand strategy according to different resources. Therefore, it can be diplomatic, military, economic, social and etc. strategies. Meanwhile operational level is a strategy of instruments for activities. It includes laws, materials, technologies, even human resources. The lowest level is tactics. In this strategy a full attention is paid to plan of battle or specific operation.15 The given table shows operable concepts used in documents and in practice. Lastly, strategies and planning is not limited to national level – it can be also regional and global.

14 The definition of word „strategy‟, the Online Oxford Dictionary. Found: http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/strategy?q=strategy 15 Urbelis, V. Strategija - jos elementai ir sąvokos evoliucija, Politologija, 2001/4 (24). P. 6; 7. Found: http://etalpykla.lituanistikadb.lt/fedora/get/LT-LDB-0001:J.04~2001~1367159110011/DS.002.0.01.ARTIC

16 Table No. 1. Levels of strategy. Strategy level Operable concepts Documents 1. Grand strategy containment, maintenance of US national security strategy, power balance, integration, Czech Republic security strategy neutrality 2. General strategy flexible response, expanded Lithuanian or US military deterrence, energy independence strategies, Lithuania energy strategy 3. Operational level frontal defense, public relations Schliefen or Barbaroso plans, campaign, collectivization, integration into the EU plan, plan denationalization of protecting cultural values 4. Tactics conduct of battle, certain means of a plan of conducting a battle of operation operation Source: Urbelis, V. Strategija - jos elementai ir sąvokos evoliucija, Politologija, 2001/4 (24). P. 7. Found: http://etalpykla.lituanistikadb.lt/fedora/get/LT-LDB-0001:J.04~2001~1367159110011/DS.002.0.01.ARTIC

The process of creating a strategy largely influences the foreign policy course. Various ways how to behave with other states are possible. Relations and strategies can be both symmetric and asymmetric, depending on resources and equality of power between two parties. Forms of grand strategies include threatening, indirect pressure, limited attacks, non-intensive fight and war. But apart from that, the most important strategy is indirect one, trying to impose control over other countries and achieve goals with minimal expenses. However, a conflictual nature of interstate relations remains significant and military strategies of deterrence, coercion, destruction and disruption are applied. Despite that, countries can strive for their goals with non-military means, but using constraint approach.16 Strategies encompass national interests and priorities which in foreign policy are of primary importance. A proper choice of a strategy allows selecting the right instruments for successful foreign policy. Analyzing foreign policy, two aspects have to be explained. Hegemonic stability theory within realism observes that powerful states seek dominance over all or parts of international system and favorable rules, institutions are sustained. Actually it is a situation when one great power is predominant in system or region and categories of cooperation, institution-norm construction and „order‟ are of first importance.17 The second point is about national interest concept. Basically, by diplomatic and other means states pursue various national interests related to security, economic and ideological fields (see Annex No. 1). J. Weldes states that national interests

16 Ibid., P. 13; 14; 22; 23 17 Dunne, T., 2012. Op. cit. P. 41; 50

17 can be both goals in foreign policy and rhetorical devices to justify the actions of a state.18 Because of it, it does greatly influence the political outcomes. The political control can be achieved by combining and involving both - national power of a state and appropriate foreign policy instruments. Every country has different capabilities, uses foreign policy strategies and this determines its position in international arena. Actually, political power can be understood as a relation between two sides – those who exercise it and those of whom it is exercised. It should be said that orders, threats or persuasion are used in order to influence other states. Such relation contains a psychological aspect and should be distinguished from force.19 Potential power and real possibilities differ. Another feature is that objectives of a foreign policy encompass the intention to control other state actions for various gains. Power can manifest itself in many ways and aspects. Author V. Urbelis notice that military, economic and social power gains different importance in different periods of history. For instance, in XXth century military powers dominated, now leverage leaned a bit more to economic powers (EU, Japan) and in future shift is possible towards countries possessing information or related to space developments. But the most important factor is the ability to handle with resources rationally.20 Particularly the last one is vital for success and superiority in the situation when there is lack of resources. The power has several elements and types. In fact, they are material and non-material. Another division of stable and changing factors is possible. H. Morgenthau claims that geography is the most stable. Location, size of territory, neighborhood and strategic importance are significant for country to achieve its political, economic strength and other goals. Different natural resources are essential for extending or sustaining national power. The most elemental among them is food, where self-sufficiency of a country to produce it (without a need to import) is an advantage. Resources for industrial production or military are valuable, as well as oil which gives big economic capabilities for countries. Industrial capacity is said to be crucial for a country to become a great power. The technology of modern warfare and communications shows the development of a state. Obviously, material strength, scale of industrialization, resources and standards of living has to be high in order to compete with other countries. The technological and industrial capacity shows both backwardness and supremacy of nation allowed being in front or pioneers in some fields.21 Despite that, there are more factors contributing to the whole image of country‟s power.

18 Weldes, J. Constructing National Interests, The European Journal of International Relations, 1996; 2. P. 276. Found: http://graduateinstitute.ch/files/live/sites/iheid/files/sites/political_science/users/jovana.carapic/public/Weldes_Construc ting%20national%20interests.pdf 19 Morgenthau, H. Politics among nations: the struggle for power and peace, 1948. P. 13; 14 20 Urbelis, V. Op. cit. P. 11 21 Morgenthau, H., 1948. Op. cit. P. 80; 82; 83; 87

18 Military preparedness, namely technological innovations, the quantity and quality of the armed forces (military leadership) has a decisive influence for national power. Historically these determinants of warfare were decisive to gain power and gave advantage. Furthermore, national power largely rests on the size of population which is important to maintain it and to be competitive. It is said that no country can become a first-rate power without being populous. At the same time demographic situation can also have negative causes, because of various problems (need for resources, infrastructure and etc.).22 Nonetheless, national character or more precisely human factor (morale, principles, qualities of intellect and character) is important for rational prognosis of a nation. It gives expectations how it would act in particular situations. Non-material elements of power such as national morale are also important. The nature of (non)cooperation, peace/war promotion, aggressive/friendly and other features largely influences prestige and acceptance of a country in the international arena. Moreover, the quality of government is relevant, because it represents the ideas, convictions and aspirations of people. The last, but actually most important factor is the quality of diplomacy. It is because as Morgenthau note, “diplomacy combines those different factors into an integrated whole, gives them direction and weight, and awakens their slumbering potentialities by giving them the breath of actual power. It helps to bring the maximum effect of elements in the international situations which concern the national interest.”23 Despite the previously mentioned elements, prestige and status and size and level of development of economy are important resources that countries dispose in interstate relations. The instruments of foreign policy and means to gain control vary. In general, democratic countries tend to use more peaceful tools such as diplomacy, whereas nondemocratic countries use violence, coercion to pursue their goals. Nowadays, there is a tendency that strategies intertwine, thus different interests are combined. Grand strategies can have various forms and war is one of them. Besides, such policies like trade blockade, embargo or propaganda have impact. It is important to note that every instrument has its different role and all help to seek for political goals.24 Therefore, a state should have strong capacity to set pragmatic, wise strategies and implement policies in order to be successful. At the same time it should be mentioned that economic power and proper use of economic instruments are becoming more important basis of foreign policy strategies among democratic states. In fact, it can serve both for sustaining and improving military power and generally advancing non-coercive economic strength of a state. Many authors note that international community has undergone significant changes in the recent decades, leaning more to a democratic

22 Ibid., P. 89-92 23 Ibid., P. 104; 105 24 Urbelis, V. Op. cit. P. 15

19 and peaceful approach of international relations. The growth of international organizations number, deepening economic and political cooperation and integration in turn affects the foreign policy planning process. In the context of relatively more peaceful period, principles of hard line power are being replaced by economic development. Actually, the states use similar practices, but there is a notable increase of economic importance in foreign policy agendas. Nevertheless, economic instruments are greatly interrelated with other power elements. Quite often these economic tools are targeted to gain influence in other countries. Of special importance is the example of the role of strategy in the United States foreign policy. During the Cold War, the US followed the grand strategy of containment. After the collapse of the main rival - the Soviet Union, the United States has become the main hegemonic player in international arena and such unipolar system allowed it to take a dominant position. The supremacy of national power of the US has been accepted among other actors in international arena. In its military strategy and actions the US stress peacetime engagement, deterrence and conflict avoidance. Conducting various operations it seeks to fight and win by using its technical, military and human resources. Currently, a rapid growth of developing countries can be noticed, but despite that the US still remains mostly capable country in many abovementioned factors of power. As a consequence, it can pursue its foreign policy by using various instruments. Some unique characteristics should be mentioned about the US and relation with realism. In his book, a representative of offensive realism notion, John J. Maersheimer claims that realism is harsh and not very popular, therefore it is often justified by moral ideas that hide reality. The US is a good example of such case. By nature, liberal ideas such as optimism and moralism drive American society and nation. The US foreign policy actions historically have been along realism ideas. Political leaders face with dilemma how to introduce these practices as 'liberal'. But this has been quite successful, because realist policies sometimes can coincide with principles of liberalism.25 For example, the US has fought against communism which was perceived as liberation of many countries, while in fact, the arms races (not to mention competition with USSR in every field) reached historical records. This general feature should be considered analyzing the context of US pursuit of interests. Discussing the strategic context, two aspects have to be pointed out. American foreign policy depends on the dynamics of choice where setting foreign policy strategy is the essence and foreign policy politics itself is a process. Bruce W. Jentleson in his book overviews the US foreign policy. The author finds that the US national interest can be generalized into four core goals – power,

25 Mearsheimer, J. J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, W. W. Norton & Company, 2001. Introduction

20 peace, prosperity and principles.26 All these objectives account for reaching peace. Power is believed to be the key qualification for self-defense of a country and preservation of national independence (and territory). Countries seeking for prosperity usually give priority for economic interests and even apply imperialist or neocolonialist policies. It can be explained by the need of various resources to supplement for factors of national power. The spread of country principles (values and ideas) abroad and can be beneficial if these are accepted as norms internationally. The might of US relies on achieving these four goals. Accordingly, in the given table a foreign policy strategy typology is provided. Generally, it can be assumed that core national interest goals, as categories linked with theoretical background, have influence for the conception of the international system and types of applied policies.

Table No. 2. A Foreign Policy Strategy Typology

Core national International Conception of the Main types interest goal relations theory international system of policies

Power Realism Competition for power Coercive Peace International World order Diplomatic Institutionalism Prosperity Economism, Global capitalism Economic Imperialism Principles Democratic Idealism Global spread of Political democracy Source: Jentleson, W. B. American foreign policy: the dynamic of choice in the 21st century. W. W. Norton & Company, 2014. P. 18

The features and importance of contemporary strategies can be explained by several aspects. First of all, it should be mentioned that the content of strategy widened not only geographically, but socially as well. At the moment, information resources in strategic idea and theory of war place a huge role. Various authors allege that dominance in information in the XXI century can in some cases even replace traditional weapons. This is mainly because of the powerful advantage that information allows to gain and prevent possible losses. Nowadays, military strategy cannot be totally without estimating economic, diplomatic or cultural aspects. In this respect, strategies have become complex. It may seem that the use of power strategy now is rare due to the process of globalization and interrelatedness of countries. It is

26 The strategic context: foreign policy strategy and the essence of choice, Chapter Review, Found: http://www.wwnorton.com/college/polisci/american-foreign-policy4/ch/01/review.aspx

21 extremely important to stress that it is otherwise. Unlike the popular belief that peace is settled, actually, significance of power politics and military power did not disappear. There are many frozen conflicts and countries engage into new interstate disagreements.27 It is obvious, that the need for strategic planning, including foresight of particular goals and instruments will remain. In overall, the foreign policy of countries depends on strategy, power, national interests and instruments. There should be a balance between power and diplomatic means. The character of strategy which determines the development and national power of a country constantly changes. Strategy has become an integral part of politics and other fields. The biggest change is related to the nature of threats. In the informational century is most important not to win against or defend from an enemy, but to foresee the possible crises and understand the reasons and consequences. The states have the same goals such as independence, welfare, and influence. Moreover, experts observe that now in the conduct of conflicts deterrence and coercion prevail instead of traditional offensive and defensive strategies. Also, the use of resources notably changed.28 Generally, a well prepared foreign policy strategy is a first, but very important, step towards a successful foreign policy. In the subsequent chapter, factors that influence U.S. policy toward Latin America are being analyzed.

27 Urbelis, V. Op. cit. P. 25 28 Ibid., P. 25-26

22 2. FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE U.S. POLICY IN LATIN

AMERICA

The historical context of relationship has huge influence towards the development of diplomatic, economic and cultural relations. Typically, biggest countries have strategies and control areas in order to maintain or strengthen their status. Latin America suffered for a long time from colonization by European nations, as a result its further regional development has been complicated. Meanwhile the US in international arena until these days is regarded as the only superpower. It is possible to view at the US actions in its neighboring region from different perspectives. Theory of classical realism is suitable to explain the US foreign policy in Latin America. Although economic cooperation is being developed, actually it is one of the instruments to keep authority in the region. But in this chapter a deeper look is taken to the historical background of US-Latin America relations, principles and problems. Moreover, bilateral US relations with Brazil features of cooperation in various field are analyzed. At the same time, the features of the US foreign policy towards Latin America are discussed. Different factors that have formed historically between the US and Latin America have impact for the regional and bilateral levels.

2.1. Historical background of US-Latin America relations

Whilst analyzing a certain region, it is essential to define or perceive the broadly used conception. According to the online Oxford dictionary, Latin America is defined as the region where Spanish and Portuguese languages are spoken among the nations of a continent.29 In addition, countries are united by a common religion and historical experience. Worth noting is that geographically the region contains all countries situated southward from the USA border. It is interesting that the term 'Latin America' is sometimes replaced by another definition 'Ibero America' in order to underline Portuguese and Spanish influence to the region's development during the colonization.30 Nevertheless, the colonial past of the region has caused a number of lasting issues, such as environmental crises, political instability, increased poverty and criminality. Therefore, negative connotations are avoided.

29 Latin America definition (Oxford Dictionaries). Found: http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/Latin- America; seen: 2013-11-20 30 History of Latina America (Britannica Online Encyclopedia). Found: http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/331694/history-of-Latin-America/; seen: 2013-11-20

23 A special relationship between the US and Latin America region has formed during a long period of time. As the authors M. LaRosa and F. O. Mora describe, the U.S.-Latin America relations have been marked by “tension, misperception, intervention, and cooperation.”31 Especially, it is important to mention that the growth of these two continents directly depended on internal processes and inevitably enforced to formulate foreign policy accordingly creating basis for relationship and choosing the right instruments. A political concept of hegemony best characterizes these relations, but its assessment is different. The US perceived and treated Latin America as being at a lower position, which needs help and control for the prosperity of the whole hemisphere. Meanwhile, Latin America saw the intention by the USA to interfere in the affairs of states and took a reluctant stance.32 Further, the main moments of the relationship are introduced, having implications to current US foreign policy. The political and economic US influence can be seen since XIX century. A form of political domination was introduced with the Monroe doctrine which meant the goal to separate two Americas from the influence of Europe.33 Later, the extension of this doctrine by T. Roosvelt allowed to oversee the region and this resulted in various military interventions.34 In fact, this principle of foreign policy serves as a good example of realism. Another aspect is that the US course shifted more to domination through economy (for instance establishing companies in Latin America) or other means. However, new reasons were invented in order to keep control over “America‟s backyard” – war on communism, drugs and terrorism. This shows a pragmatic and realism path that the US took to secure its primary goals. Another basic feature is that the strategic influence of the US in Latin America region is declining. Moreover, an interesting tendency is that the growing presence of China in region is seen as a peculiar counterbalance. It is worth to note that not trade, but China‟s intervention into political and military fields poses threats to the US. This creates a need to prevent possible influence by other states in Latin America. Furthermore, a wave of anti-Americanism is noticeable, which limits the current US role in the region. Nevertheless, foreign policy remains conducted along realism line. For instance, US military role due to security maintenance is not decreasing. Otherwise, many finances are provided for military equipment continuing unconstitutional war on drugs and strategy

31 LaRosa, J. M. and Mora, O. F. Neighborly Adversaries: Readings in U.S.-Latin American Relations. Rowman & Littlefield, 2007. P. 1. 32 Brewer, S. Borders and Bridges: A History of U.S.-Latin American Relations. Praeger Security International, 2006. P. 6-7. 33 Monroe Doctrine (1823), U.S. Department of State Office of the Historian. Found: http://history.state.gov/milestones/1801-1829/monroe; seen: 2015-01-04 34 Theodore Roosevelt's Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine (1905), A National Initiative on American History, Civics, and Service. Found: http://www.ourdocuments.gov/doc.php?doc=56; seen: 2015-01-04

24 is not reviewed.35 Also, a scandal of spying (intelligence) its allies gives a reality of cooperation with suspicion. Generally, the instruments used by US are diverse, but needs to be better coordinated. Analyzing more thoroughly the prominent approaches in US foreign policy towards Latin America, it could be stated that the US applied strategies which were not always rational and reasoned. To some extent, it is paradox that those strategies maintained actions with foundations of realism which should consider pragmatic evaluation, but country engaged into costly policies. Some authors notice that being very antagonistic and afraid of the spread of communism in the nearby areas, the US involved into the ideological fight against communism. Actually, it is even called the defining feature of US foreign policy during Cold War. One of the apparent examples of such ideological fight and manifestation of realism can be seen in Cuban crisis. It is an essential moment marking the shift of the US foreign policy under ideological grounding and distrust of Latin American countries governments for leftist deviation. The case of Cuba is interesting, because it was the first communist country in the region (a satellite state of the Soviet Union) and openly adversary to the US. Thus, since 1962 a commercial, economic and financial embargo for Cuba have been imposed by the US seeking “to promote a peaceful transition to a stable, democratic government and respect for human rights in Cuba.” However, such decision is controversial as the main goal has not been achieved yet (political rights are limited and country remains communist). Moreover, although the United Nations denounced embargo, the US keeps protecting these restrictions.36 Indeed, at the moment it should be one of the priorities and opportunity for the US to unite the region. The strategic decisions to engage in war on communism and also against guerilla movements in Latin American countries regardless economic and other interests caused irrational foreign policy. Despite that the US maintained hegemonic ambitions to expand its economic, political and culture influence in the whole region. The US holds hegemony in the world and this position obliges to take some commitments and responsibilities. Namely, the US should promote both self- interests and provide collective goods (defend universal values). Leadership in hegemonic system is maintained by more benevolent or ethical behavior of a dominating state. It is said that other countries with less power tend to emulate and adopt policies, values that a hegemonic power establishes. Therefore, the US needs to provide an international economic regime for greater prosperity. Also a democratic domestic and international political regime is needed which would

35 Newman, A. Obama Expands U.S. Military Role in Latin America, Again, The New American (Feb 12, 2013). Found: http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/foreign-policy/item/14492-obama-expands-us-military-role-in-latin- america-again; seen: 2015-01-04 36 National interest and the tools of foreign policy: a lesson plan for teachers, Close Up Foundation. P. 8. Found: https://www.closeup.org/lib/National%20Interest%20Foreign%20Policy%20Lesson%20Planvfinal.pdf; seen: 2015-01- 05

25 safeguard such values as self-determination, liberty and human rights.37 This would help to preserve its hegemony in Latin America. It is said that pure realism in the long-term would lead to a downfall of hegemony. Authors P. Sanchez and M. Sholar claim that there should be a balance between power and principles. They provide several recommendations for the US foreign policy makers. First of all, according to their view, the US should adopt a policy of non-intervention and non-interference. This would be cost- free allowing for US to save resources which are used for pursuing its goals, but often faces with anti-Americanism phenomenon. In this respect, such policy may guarantee the improvement of US- Latin American relations. Avoidance of military solutions would create a win-win situation with a better US image in the region. Moreover, the US is advised to refrain from using CIA covert operations and engaging in regime changes in democratic countries. Such practices are controversial, because they are directed to control political, economic and social development of Latin American countries and thus to maintain influence. Military coups in Venezuela and Honduras are clear examples of promoting pro-US regimes.38 Gathering of intelligence itself is positive and useful, but suggestion by authors is to use it more ethically. Another proposal is related to special operations in Latin America by the US military and CIA. Principles of sovereignty and independence without a breach of international law should be respected so that the US political and economic models would be accepted in Latin American countries. Lastly, the US should introduce a special socioeconomic development program for Latin America. Civilian institutions should be assisted in the region, also promotion of competitive capitalism is needed. It is believed that all these policies would enhance long-term US interests and improve relations and cooperation with Latin America.39 At the moment, in many works of scholars it is noted that some kind of renewal of relations and policy focus towards this particular region can be noticed. As it was shown before, the US foreign policy can be described following the political and economic means applied in respect of Latin America. Mostly, it occurred to be organization of military interventions, initiation and support of coups against unfavorable communist regimes. Also, Americans invested in fighting against drugs and terrorism, as well as in export and oil policy. However, these were not the only methods applied, particularly in the beginning of the latest century. At the moment, the US seeks to promote economic cooperation. US Trade Act of 2002 stipulates that "The expansion of international trade is vital to the national security of the US. Trade

37 Sanchez, P. and Sholar M. Power and Principle: A New US Policy for Latin America, International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Vol. 2 No. 23; 2012. P. 18; 19; 21. Found: http://www.ijhssnet.com/journals/Vol_2_No_23_December_2012/3.pdf; seen: 2015-01-05 38 Ibid., P. 24 39 Ibid., P. 25; 26

26 is critical to economic growth and strength of the US and its leadership in the world. <...> Trade Arrangements today serve the same purposes that security pacts played during the Cold War".40 Collaboration has been protractedly avoided, strictly following a doctrine of country sovereignty until it was realized that a certain reduction of sovereignty could lead toward a beneficial economic partnership. It was supported by administrations of the US presidents Bill Clinton and later G. W. Bush, especially by building the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). Countries became more open, the number of restrictions for trade decreased and investments grew. Also, in 2005 the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) was confirmed, supplementing previous and expanding the market. In fact, president G. W. Bush realized that the US needs to cooperate with Latin America in order to achieve its goals, but for this some strategies had to be adjusted.41 Despite that, the expansion of democracy remains an important aim. The view and policy of G.W. Bush is well reflected by his words:

''Those who ignore Latin America do not fully understand America itself,'' he said. ''And those who ignore our hemisphere do not fully understand American interests. This country was right to be concerned about a country like Kosovo, for example, but there are more refugees of conflict in Colombia. America is right to be concerned about Kuwait, but more of our oil comes from Venezuela. America is right to welcome trade with China, but we export nearly as much to Brazil.''42

In fact, it means a priority for closer relations with Latin America. The Independent Task Force launched by the Council on Foreign Relations in its report43 notes that Latin America has never been very important for the US as it is now. It supplies oil and is one of the fastest growing trade partners. However, attention should be drawn to the scale of illegal drugs and immigration. Nevertheless, these all features mean a stronger strategic, economic and cultural dependence. Thereby it is observed that "the long-standing focus on trade, democracy, and drugs, while still relevant, is inadequate."44 Experts advise to focus on such issues as poverty, inequality, public security, migration and energy security. Recently, various authors claim that the US loses its influence in Latin America. Countries have made an obvious economic progress and decide the future of region on their own. It also established contacts with China and India. Frederick Pike expresses his view that despite efforts to

40 US Trade Act of 2002: Title XXI. Found: http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-107hr3009enr/pdf/BILLS- 107hr3009enr.pdf 41 Pastor, R. Exiting the Whirpool: U.S. Foreign Policy toward Latin America and the Caribbean, 2001. P. 275; 284 42 Bruni, F. THE 2000 CAMPAIGN: THE TEXAS GOVERNOR; BUSH VOWS TO PUT GREATER U.S. FOCUS ON LATIN AMERICA, The New York Times (August 26, 2000). Found: http://www.nytimes.com/2000/08/26/us/2000- campaign-texas-governor-bush-vows-put-greater-us-focus-latin-america.html; seen: 2015-01-06 43 U.S.-Latin America Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality, Council on Foreign Relations, Independent Task Force Report No. 60. Found: http://i.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/LatinAmerica_TF.pdf; seen: 2013-12-02 44 Overview on Task Force Report about U.S.-Latin America Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality. Found: http://www.cfr.org/mexico/us-latin-america-relations/p16279; seen: 2013-12-03

27 control peace, security and prosperity in the hemisphere, the US is no longer a dominant figure. This impression is reinforced by a chosen phenomenon of 'radical neglect' for Latin American issues in foreign policy during these years.45 Such ignorance of adjacent area in the long-term might cost much or even become an irreversible action. Summarizing the context of relations, it may be said that the US historically has been seeking and found new pretexts to affect Latin America and maintain influence. Foreign policy on this vector was carried out quite successfully, but eventually hostile positions of other nations to the US interests formed and Latin America is no longer a 'backyard'. Therefore, inevitably there is a need to find new levers and instruments to operate. In order to cooperate through diplomatic channels, the US foreign policy guidelines have to change respectively. Evaluating the context of US-Latin America relations and various processes, it appears that all of the issues are interrelated. Those problems and their solutions accounted to a more controversial consideration of US foreign policy in the region. Some of the issues are relevant today and have impact for the success of US-Latin America relations. Further, bilateral relations of the US with Brazil are discussed.

2.2. Reasons for the US policy in bilateral relations with Brazil

One particular case has been chosen in this work to portray the practical US relationship with Latin America and securing its national interests. Namely, the attention is given to bilateral US and Brazil relations. It should be mentioned that US applies pragmatic policy to reach political, economic and security gains. But inevitably there is a need to adopt a slightly more even approach to maintain influence. It can be claimed that foreign policy of a state, behavior with neighbors and general framework of bilateral relations between countries is largely shaped by historical background - main events and perceptions. It accounts for the contemporary relations (features and tendencies) and gives opportunity to project future or formulate policy recommendations. The United States and Brazil shares a long history, marked by various positive and tense periods. The two countries evolved relations affected by both mistrust and pragmatic assistance, cooperation. Typically, the US-Brazil relations are explained by several key periods which had influence for the defining features of present relations. It is worth mentioning that both countries were allies during World War I and World War II. Since 1960 Brazil has leaned more to its own development, foreign policy goals. In post-Cold war era, Brazil criticized some of the US initiatives and actions (for instance War on Terror). It is interesting that the ruling Workers' Party (PT) in Brazil is in

45 Brewer, S. Op. Cit. P. 158.

28 nature anti-American. Despite that, since mid-2000s, there is a noticeable intensification of relations in areas such as trade, energy, security and environment.46 In economic field, the US and Brazil has strong commercial links. In 19th and early 20th centuries, the economic cooperation was controlled within the framework of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). But the end of World War II marks promotion of different growth strategies, namely, the US focusing on opening world markets (trade and investment), while Brazil sought industrialization through import substitution. Moreover, in the last two decades Brazil fearing influence opposed US economic initiatives (for instance the FTAA)).47 This partly explains why two states face problems in trade and economic cooperation has been tense. The general features of US-Brazil relationship include some important points. The disagreements between two parties were mainly due to unequal treatment, trade policies and US military involvement in Latin America. In fact, the US claimed a hegemonic stance in the Western Hemisphere and it limited the pursuit of national goals for Brazil. Also, experts highlight power diffusion tendency which changed the balance and rapidly rising states like Brazil and China pose various challenges for US.48 Different national interests and strategic goals largely affected the development of relations. As a consequence, Brazil saw the US as an "adversary". Former Brazilian ambassador to China, Germany and US Roberto Abdenur shared his experience that since 2004 there were significant changes in relationship as working groups were created and "strategic dialogue" started.49 However, the search for common ground was protracted. This is related to several disputes that both countries have had. Disagreements were over trade, cotton case in the World Trade Organization (WTO), protection of US agriculture and Brazilian industry. Also, Brazilian accord to regimes that US traditionally oppose or treat as problematic (Iran, Venezuela, Russia, Libya and Syria) raised concerns. Given the fact that espionage in 2013 by the National Security Agency (NSA) targeted to Brazilian top officials, national interests in military, security and trade fields were revealed, this makes relationship quite difficult and not fully trustworthy. Nevertheless, it is obvious that both sides need close relationship as the political and economic context has changed in the recent years. The US dominance has declined while some other power centers are emerging and Brazil is one of them. The main country in Latin America has undergone huge changes and deserves a firm place in

46 Brazil-U.S. Political Relations, Brazil-U.S. Business Council, 2013. P. 1. Found: http://www.brazilcouncil.org/sites/default/files/2%20Brazil-U.S.pdf; seen: 2015-01-06 47 Brazil-U.S. Economic and Commercial Relations, Brazil-U.S. Business Council, 2013. P. 1. Found: http://www.brazilcouncil.org/sites/default/files/1%20Brazil%20U.S.pdf; seen: 2015-01-06 48 Christensen, S. F. Brazil's Foreign Policy Priorities, 2013, Third World Quarterly, vol. 34, no. 2, pp. 271; 272. Found: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/01436597.2013.775785; seen: 2015-01-08 49 Abdenur, R. Brazil and its Strategic Relations with China, Germany, and the United States, 2011. Latin American Policy, Vol. 2 Issue 1. P. 66. Found: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2041-7373.2010.00008.x/pdf; seen: 2015-01-08

29 international arena. In this regard, the US already recognized Brazil as an important player and that 'special relationship' might be beneficial for the US interests. Actually, trade is often noted as the key area which should be developed more intensively to promote a closer relationship. There is a lack of Brazilian experts in US administration and language barrier also prevents from more reasoned decisions and agenda.50 Accordingly, this sometimes leads to failure to turn sound plans and commitments into actual policies. Apart from the abovementioned features of relationship, currently both countries are seeking a comprehensive approach towards partnership. Namely, they try to find a common ground and interests where cooperation could be enhanced. The areas of special importance are security matters, fight with drug-trafficking, negotiations on free trade and relationship itself.51 However, each country has its own strategic objectives that drive their foreign policy. Brazil-U.S. Business Council names Brazil's key goal to be recognized by the United States as a global power and gain support in reforming international institutions governance (permanent seat in UN Security Council, increase of Brazil's voting rights in the World Bank and IMF). The prospects for relationship with the US are in some particular fields - innovation, economic and social development. But the leading trade partner should remain China, as political elite express such priority. Meanwhile the US seeks that Brazil would guarantee political and economic stability in Latin America region (and partly in Africa). This also applies for BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and other formats. The US needs such partner where its influence is opposed. A deeper intention is to persuade Brazil to be a stakeholder of US interests, for example to counterbalance China's growing influence in Latin America. But the primary goal is to improve economic ties.52 These all features explain how the relations are conducted, but a more detailed view is presented in the following chapters. Further, it is important to look at the official US foreign policy, enshrined in the basic documents and declared official rhetoric.

50 O'Neil, Sh. Brazil as an Emerging Power: The View from the United States, SAIIA Policy Briefing, No 16, 2010. P. 1; 2. Found: http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/5ABEDF10d01.pdf; seen: 2015-01-08 51 Ibid. P. 3 52 Brazil-U.S. Political Relations, Brazil-U.S. Business Council, 2013. P. 2. Found: http://www.brazilcouncil.org/sites/default/files/2%20Brazil-U.S.pdf; seen: 2015-01-08

30 3. THE DECLARED U.S. AND CHINA'S NATIONAL

INTERESTS IN LATIN AMERICA

US foreign policy making process is complex, involving a variety of actors and institutional arrangements. This section deals with main documents of US foreign policy formation - the Constitution, the National Security Strategies (year 2010 and 2015). Also, it analyzes the annual speeches of president B. Obama about the state of the union during 2009-2015 period. All this background is an important basis and certain indicator how the United States acts in short and long perspectives, what values are being declared and what are the key priorities. Despite that, in this chapter a deeper look is taken to the main interests of the US and China in Latin America. The interests of the United States in the region are varying from security matters (narcotics, human trafficking, border control, insurgent groups) to economic issues (oil and other resources). It includes political dimension as well. China's interests in Latin America are mainly economic - to get access to resources, to foster trade and invest. But at the same time it uses economic means to reach political goals. By providing loans it wants to gain political and diplomatic support on various issues. Security matters has been somewhat less highlighted, but this field is likely to become a focus of interest for China.

3.1. The declared US interests in Latin America and Brazil

3.1.1. Formation of the US foreign policy

The US foreign policy is virtually a reflection of national interests and guidelines for interaction with other states. Since it is one of the most important countries in the world, affecting various processes, consequently, its foreign policy includes ambitious targets. Officially, the purpose is an attempt "to build and sustain a more democratic, secure, and prosperous world composed of well-governed states that respond to the needs of their people, reduce widespread poverty, and act responsibly within the international system."53 Principles of how foreign policy is formed and who is responsible for it are laid down in the main documents of the state.

53 Discover diplomacy: US foreign policy goals. Found: http://diplomacy.state.gov/discoverdiplomacy/diplomacy101/issues/170606.htm; seen: 2013-12-06

31 The US Constitution was adopted in 1787 September 17th after federalists and antifederalists reached a consensus.54 Meanwhile in 1971 it was complemented by so called the Bill of Rights, consolidating a broader list of civil rights. It is worth to note that the US according to the complexity of amending certain provisions (so far only 27 have been corrected) is regarded as 'solid'. This document is a good model of organization of main state institutions, government and consolidation of essential principles, moreover, it made a significant impact for the development of the doctrine of constitutionalism. The US Constitution consists of a preamble, seven chapters and amendments. Attention is paid to adjust the legislative, executive and judicial powers, determine the order of a state and federalism, also to regulate other technical issues. It may be noted that text is sufficiently distinguished by only 22 short articles and the very constitution can be characterized by "elevated" style of writing. Especially important is that it provides "checks and balances" system and include various protectors. Constitution does not speak directly about foreign policy, but it clearly identifies who is responsible for the official relations of America with the rest of world. It is president who together with the Congress has a right to formulate foreign policy. The two latter terms since 2009 are led by B. Obama. Constitutional authority of the president has a dual mandate - both as a head of the state and responsible for the government. However, it should be noted that in foreign policy his powers are not broad and somewhat limited (e.g. the right to declare a war belongs to the Congress). He appoints ambassadors, acts as a chief of military, may enter into agreements with other states and organizations. National defense specialist Richard F. Grimmet argues that president in his hand has such instruments as a response to international events, proposals to change laws, negotiations for international agreements, political statements and independent actions.55 However, one of the most important powers that he holds is a possibility to introduce a foreign policy course.56 A 3d article of the Constitution provides the principle of president's accountability - a requirement from time to time to give information to Congress about the situation in the US and provide recommendations for action. Foreign policy relies on other bodies and officials as well. Namely, the instructions of US president and his guidelines are implemented by the State Department, provided with the administrative capacity. The highest person in this structure, informally regarded as foreign

54 The Constitution of the United States. Found: http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/charters/constitution_transcript.html; seen: 2013-12-06 55 Grimmett, F. R. Foreign Policy Roles of the President and Congress. U.S. Department of State, 1999. Found: http://fpc.state.gov/6172.htm; seen: 2013-12-06 56 How U.S. Foreign Policy is made, Foreign Policy Association, 2011. Found: http://www.fpa.org/features/index.cfm?act=feature&announcement_id=45&show_sidebar=0; seen: 2013-12-06

32 minister, is Secretary of State. Currently, this position is taken by John Kerry. His functions include advising the president, representation in negotiations at international conferences. Also, the mandate is oriented to direct (daily) and actual questions for the US citizens - issuance of citizenship, migration and other.57 Secretary of State himself is a kind of chief of diplomacy but under the authority of the president. Meanwhile the Department of Defense (Pentagon) and the National Security Council58 are responsible for defense and security. In the recent years, due to threat of terrorism, the Department of Homeland Security has been established which works with the issues of trade, border and immigration. Finally, an important place in US foreign policy system is take by the "intelligence community"59 that performs a variety of intelligence collection activities (e.g. about foreign country armaments) and carrying out secret missions.60 It is worth noting that in the process of foreign policy execution, local government actively engages (via trade and agriculture form). Moreover, strong non-governmental organizations and think tanks are operating which involve experts to shape foreign policy.61 It is therefore clear that the circle of actors participating in the decision making of external affairs is abundant. Summarizing the US foreign policy making process, it has to be admitted that it is difficult and requiring the cooperation and consensus of all branches of government. However, the president is a person representing the interests of a nation, who expresses the most important issues and priorities of that time. Therefore, the following part of work analyzes Latin America region in the National Security strategies and annual president speeches.

3.1.2. The US interests declared in the National Security Strategy (NSS) documents

Usually, the US leaders express their vision of a state, goals and national security affairs in a periodically published document Nation Security Strategy. In this section, the internal and external analysis of US president B. Obama administration adopted strategies in year 2010 and 2015 is made, according to which the US foreign policy was conducted.

57 Duties of the Secretary of State, U.S. Department of State. Found: http://www.state.gov/secretary/115194.htm; seen: 2013-12- 07 58 The National Security Council is composed of officials responsible for the US foreign policy - the president, vice- president, secretaries of state, defense, energy and other. This cabinet helps the president to manage and coordinate foreign policy on important issues. 59 The so-called "intelligence community" is made up of the Central Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency and the Defense Information Agency and it carries out both public and covert operations to ensure US national security interests. 60 How U.S. Foreign Policy is made, Foreign Policy Association, 2011. Found: http://www.fpa.org/features/index.cfm?act=feature&announcement_id=45&show_sidebar=0; seen: 2013-12-06 61 Foreign Policy 101: Who Makes U.S. Foreign Policy? Found: http://usforeignpolicy.about.com/od/backgroundhistory/a/whomakesforpol.htm; seen: 2013-12-06

33 The analysis of National Security Strategy (2010)

Adoption time of a document

It has to be noted that historically the administrations of presidents did not meet a requirement to provide a formal report to a Congress on strategic questions annually. For instance, G. W. Bush did this in 2002 and 2006. With the coming of B. Obama in office, there were expectations of major changes in the US executive politics, more balanced economy and rational choices in foreign policy. In 2010 May 27th the National Security Strategy was released.62 It is important to take a look into the foreign policy course that was set and Latin America's place in it.

A consideration of the structure of a document

The document being analyzed is composed of four parts in which different issues are addressed respectively. In the first chapter, the whole National Security Strategy is covered, meanwhile the second deals with its strategic approach. Attention is drawn to the current world, its problems and from this a certain and unique US vision appears - a world, which a country seeks. In addition, areas that needs to be strengthened in order to pursue interests are identified. Among those, several can be mentioned - defense, diplomacy, the development economy, homeland security, intelligence, strategic cooperation and the American people (private sector). The third chapter called "Advancing our interests" is the most important in the document, because main priorities are named such as security, prosperity, values and international order. Finally, in the conclusions there is an encouragement to execute this strategy in individual, institutional, state and even international levels. Moreover, there is an appeal to the American nation, its features and need to fight against challenges of XXIst century. It may be said that the strategy itself is not very long - in total 52 pages, but it is a well structured and cohesive document. Attention is drawn to the uplifting writing style about self- confident American nation interests. The structure of this document is basically characterized similar to political declaration.

Internal analysis of a document: content and meaning

62 National Security Strategy by the U.S. President Barack Obama, 2010 May 26. Found: http://nssarchive.us/NSSR/2010.pdf; seen: 2013-12-05

34 In 2010 National Security Strategy, a phenomenon of globalization is emphasized which causes a variety of consequences (both positive and negative) and force countries to respond and change. Despite the current estimation of declining US power, this country remain a leader in international system. Therefore, it has to commit itself to become actively involved in various international processes in order to maintain its status. The main principle enshrined about US activity in the world is - "Building at Home, Shaping Abroad".63 Partly, this means an objective to restore its might and capabilities, but the state has to come in line with an increased global interdependence and new challenges. This document includes the information about US interests. Altogether there are four of them. That is, 1) the security of the US, its citizens and allies; 2) welfare - strong, innovative and growing US economy and open international economic system; 3) respect for universal values inside the country and in the world and finally 4) international order, meaning the US leadership and promotion for peace, security and opportunities through a closer cooperation to overcome global challenges. For every interest, the administration prepared a series of measures and guidelines. In order to ensure the safety, a priority of fighting against Al-Qaeda (but in other means) is maintained, attention is paid to the development of Middle East region, fight with the creation and use of nuclear or biological weapons (p. 17-27). In other field, trying to reach economic prosperity and social equality, a focus is on better conditions, investments to education and science. By this, it is expected to see new economic reforms and to strengthen economic connections by the initiative of international forums (p. 28-35). In turn, the spread of values is further named as one of the key sources of US national security and there is an aim to promote democracy and human rights in foreign countries, to take into account a social side - support by food, fight against poverty (p 35- 40). Finally, it is expected to have strong alliances (especially in security field and economics) in to maintain international order (p. 40-41). In the political declaration a vision of international community is expressed. It is a world where "a just and sustainable order" prevail.64 Such claim has a normative basis inside - responsibility, common values and collective actions. To US attempts to make such order by using various means. One of them is a strategic partnership with North American countries - Canada and Mexico (the latter is regarded as part of Latin America). It takes into account important trade links because of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), also the ability to preempt threats from Latin America, fight against illegal drug and arms trade and to regulate immigration policy.65 But it is noted that in this strategy important place is left for relations with such countries like

63 Ibid. P. 2. 64 Ibid. P. 12. 65 Ibid. P. 42-43.

35 China, India and Russia which are some kind of centers of influence. In the 21st century new countries emerge that are strong politically and economically and this has to be taken into account. Latin America in the document is considered a region that has strong historical and cultural connections with the US which as noted formed because of the geographical location in the hemisphere. Common obligations for democracy and rule of law, energetic dependence and integrated markets are perceived as necessary conditions for equal partnership. Therefore, in the text the US officially commit "to advance economic and social inclusion, safeguard citizen safety and security, promote clean energy, and defend universal values of the people of the hemisphere."66 These are the main priorities in this region. In fact, the US seeks to cooperate actively with Argentina and Brazil. Namely, the latter's growth and efforts to stop North-South cleavage are welcome - this country is said to have a significant role in environmental protection, energy security and economic development fields.67 In a special mentioning of Brazil, the US welcomes its leadership and admits that Brazil might be an example for other countries in the Americas and Africa in dealing with macroeconomic issues. G-20 and Doha could be the platforms to promote economic development. Moreover, the US positively views the efforts by Brazil against illicit transnational networks. This only confirms the trend that the US focuses on rising powers as potential partners. Despite the already mentioned things, the US is concerned about the responsibility of other countries while dealing with global challenges. For example, united fight against climate change it is expected from Latin America. In a broad sense peace keeping and military conflicts (avoiding genocide and mass atrocities and promoting international justice), pandemics and infectious diseases, transnational crime threats and risk management are considered as challenges of these days, as a result, the US support efforts of international organizations or separate states. It is interesting that the US puts a significant focus on its role to protect common and defines interests in the Arctic. This step can be understood as n expression of global leadership and at the same time the expansion of influence zones, keeping other countries away. Essentially, in this document the US returns to its basics. This is done to emphasize economic growth. There is also a noticeable change in the use of military - to engage into war a rational consideration is needed and only as a 'last resort' case. In this way, the US president administration puts diplomatic instruments in conflict resolution process above the use of force. Important is the reduction of tension in particular regions (like Central America). Samuel R. Berger notes that the

66 Ibid. P. 44. 67 Ibid. P. 44-45.

36 US goal to double export to Panama and Colombia was not successful enough.68 The document per se can be criticized for some strange moments, for example, a scarce mentioning of Latin America or negation that Venezuela and neo-Bolivarianism poses a threat for the US interests.69 It can be argued that the document establishes a clear concept of US foreign policy, which allows to assess the current policy.

The latest National Security Strategy document (2015)

In 2015, a new National Security Strategy70 has been released which lays out what needs to be done at present in order to secure US long-term goals. Basically, it covers a 6 years period of progress that country has made in various fields. National security advisor Susan Rice pinpointed to the main idea of strategy that "a strong and sustainable American leadership is key to building greater peace and prosperity throughout the world".71 The structure clearly shows what are the key areas that US focus on - it is security, prosperity, values and international order. In the document the US is portrayed as having strongest positions in the world. It bases its national security and influence on the growing economic strength. A key goal for the US is to lead and sustain international order. Among the challenges for national security, violent extremism and terrorism are noted in the summary, while cyber security, aggression, impacts of climate change and infectious diseases are additionally attributed to global security (p. 1). An important feature is that the US acts not solely, but also effectively using collective methods - through coalitions and partners in international forums. This document reveals that the US has global commitments regarding such areas as nuclear weapons, energy security and climate change, cyber security, poverty and sustainable development. Moreover, some significant tendencies and developments are indicated. First, there is a new approach towards several regions like Asia and the Pacific to strengthen commercial ties and investment. In Africa and the Americas there is a necessity for cooperation in agriculture and energy. Worth mentioning is the fact that US relations with China reached high level, although there are concerns about its growing military capabilities due to modernization. In the hemisphere,

68 Berger, S. R. Obama's national security strategy: A little George Bush, lots of Bill Clinton, The Washington Post (May 30, 2010). Found: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/28/AR2010052804466.html; seen: 2013-12-06 69 Feaver, P. Obama‟s National Security Strategy: real change or just „Bush Lite?' Foreign Policy, 2010. Found: http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/05/27/obama_s_national_security_strategy_real_change_or_just_bush_lite #sthash.fMaskR00.dpbs; seen: 2013-12-06 70 National Security Strategy by the U.S. President Barack Obama, 2015 February. Found: http://nssarchive.us/wp- content/uploads/2015/02/2015.pdf; seen: 2015-01-15 71 Somanader, T. President Obama's National Security Strategy in 2015: Strong and Sustainable American Leadership (February 06, 2015). Official website of the White House. Found: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2015/02/06/president-obamas-national-security-strategy-2015-strong-and-sustainable- american-lea; seen: 2015-02-24

37 opening to Cuba is treated as a priority to reach accelerate democratic changes, peace, prosperity and energy security (p. 1). In total, six principles of US foreign policy are outlined of which the first declares that US will lead with purpose. Here it is important to mention that main US interests remained the same as in 2010 strategy. Apart from that, strategic threats are coherently presented - that is catastrophic attack, threats against US citizens and allies, global economic crisis, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, infectious diseases, energy market disruptions and weak and failing states (p. 2). Another principle of US foreign policy is its strength, relying on economic, military and values-based dimensions. Thirdly, it is declared that the US will lead by showing example (promoting values). Furthermore, it will lead together with partners to maintain global security and welfare and norms of international governance (p. 3). What is more, pursuing its interests the US promise to use its all instruments – military power, diplomacy, economic means and etc. Lastly, there is a clear message that US seeks long-term goals perspective. Despite that, historical transitions and several recent tendencies (especially in security field) are highlighted in the document which influence US stance (position) and actions. Generally, it can be observer that power among states now becomes more dynamic. Especially the rise of Asia and China in particular, the growth of Latin America regions are very important factors. Moreover, power shifts beyond the nation-state and there is an increasing interdependence of the global economy and technological development linked with different levels of actors (p. 4). Notable are manifestations of struggle for power in many states of Middle East and North Africa. In addition, the global energy marked has changed over the years. Lastly, a strategic environment is called “fluid” (p. 5). This is a broad overview of situation that the US witness. More specifically, security is viewed as the biggest responsibility and forces the US to prevent both national and global threats. And this has to be done in all spaces – air, space, oceans and cyber. NATO is given a special notice as preeminent multilateral alliance. Regarding prosperity, the US claims to be the largest economy with features of openness and innovations. Now the focus leans to more responsible economy with social aspect. President B. Obama expresses strong reliance on values in his strategy, especially democracy and human rights. With reference to international order, it is marked that control will be maintained and diplomacy together with other resources will be used for this purpose (p. 7; 15; 19; 23). A special attention is drawn to China to rebalance relations, seeking a constructive partnership. The US welcomes the rise of China and wants to see it stable, peaceful and prosperous. The cooperation includes such working areas as economic growth, public health, climate change and denuclearization. However, it is admitted that there are some tensions, competition between two states. But there is will to avoid confrontation. Nevertheless, the US plans to oversee China‟s compliance to international norms (in security, trade,

38 human rights). In addition, China‟s military modernization will be on US focus, as well as possible threats for cyber security (p. 24). So in fact the US takes a twofold position toward China – seeks cooperation, admits its rise and growing influence, but at the same time two parties have some elements of competition. A separate section in 2015 strategy is left for the Americas. Hemispheric relations are based on shared goals to reach prosperity, democracy and security. The US at least publicly supports an idea to give more weight in international arena for Latin American countries. Despite that some significant regional problems remain - weak institutions, drugs, organized crime, economic inequality and so forth. All the countries of the region are mentioned as important for the US in different ways. For instance, with Mexico agenda includes economic competitiveness and advancing prosperity, also the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). With Brazil the US seeks to reinforce economic partnership, reduce poverty and higher standards of public services. Colombia is considered to be a key ally in the region, strong partnership. This is mainly because it takes serious commitments for international peace and security. With other countries, the US forges close political, economic relations which expands into fields of development, culture, sport and various initiatives. Apart from that, the US pursues human rights culture and rule of law principles in this region. (p. 27; 28). Generally, in this document the US president declared basic principles of domestic and foreign policy, emphasizing the leadership. Worth noting is that interests in Latin America and in general remain the same as declared in the previous strategy. However, some of the priorities have changed. There is a development in dealing with different regions. Asia and the Pacific becomes more important area for commercial ties and investment, whereas Latin America attracts the US because of cooperation in agriculture and energy. Brazil is only partially noted in the text and this shows that the US still lacks a serious focus on Latin America, despite some of the processes in this region that distort relations in the neighborhood.

3.1.3. The annual speeches of US president (2009-2015)

As it was mentioned previously, an address about the state of the union the US president delivers in the Congress. Not only the most relevant and current political, economical and social conditions are presented, but also there is a chance for a president to draw guidelines for legislative agenda. In this way, these speeches acquire a significant role in shaping the domestic and foreign policies. Gerhard Peters which investigated the annual speeches by US president and their effect observe that in academic literature there is a false perception that this message has to be presented

39 orally during a session of Congress. In fact, looking retrospectively, a written form of a speech prevailed in practice. Franklin D. Roosevelt began a modern tradition of providing an oral message. Another important insight that analyst find is that the last five presidents within a short time after their inauguration tended to speak at the Congress (including B. Obama's speech in 2009), but such speeches are not considered as messages about the state of the union. Despite that, because of the influence for the society, media and the expression of presidential leadership and power in the Congress it can be assigned to this category for scientific purposes.72 Therefore, the speeches of B. Obama during 2009-2015 have been chosen for the analysis. A message delivered in 200973 reflects extremely poor economic situation at that time and this as a crucial factor affected all other areas of state organization (which also have impact on foreign policy). Credits and loans are considered as the main problem. It is mentioned in the speech what actions have been taken to stop the crisis - it is an American recovery law act, financial stability plan. Three areas important for the future - energy, health care and education. The president encourages a nation to unite. While assessing the foreign policy it is agreed that war requires heavy costs. Having in mind a fact that the US fought wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, its policies have to be reviewed. It should be noted that fight against terrorism (more specifically against Al-Qaeda) and extremism remains important. B. Obama expressed his opinion about the challenges of the 21st century - that is terrorism, nuclear disarmament, diseases, cyber threats and poverty. It is a target to strengthen old alliances and promote emergence of new ones, by using all US capacity for this purpose. Meanwhile in 2010 January 27th in his speech74, B. Obama highlighted economics, claiming that the worst passed away, but a devastation can be seen. A goal to maintain the leading positions in the world are noticeable and a search for new markets is welcomed. Nevertheless, trade agreements with Panama, Colombia are treated as very important. In addition, security in a report is addressed many times. In operations outside the borders, a promise is given to end wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and withdraw troops. Despite security in general, one of the biggest threat is nuclear weapons. In this field the US aims to cooperate with Russia and other states. At the same time, the US a clear positions to impose sanctions for countries that fail to comply with international norms. Lastly, the president talks about

72 State of the Union Addresses and Messages: research notes by Gerhard Peters. Found: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/sou.php; seen: 2013-12-02 73 Barack Obama: "Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress," February 24, 2009. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project. Found: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=85753; seen: 2013-12-04 74 Barack Obama: "Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress on the State of the Union," January 27, 2010. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project. Found: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=87433; seen: 2013-12-04

40 the fundamental US values - human dignity and freedom, which he offers to actively support. It can be noticed that this speech by its nature is similar to the previous one. Analyzing the speech in 201175, it can be noted that in it the US interests are expressed better, as well as a global vision of a world and for the first time a special attention is given to Latin America as a separate unit (not only for bilateral relations). As noted, the exclusive feature of the US is democracy. Economic recovery, development of trade relations, especially new agreements with China and India are highlighted in this review. Though, Panama and Colombia are once again mentioned as economic partners. Notably, the Security Department decided to reduce spending and this is a positive example of efficient performance The US president claims that the US leadership is renewed and authority is retrieved. Promises that were made in the previous reports to end wars are repeated, also attention is drawn to a faced pressure by terrorist groups and a global vision to create a peaceful and prosperous world is offered by US leader. This can be understood as an attempt to implement a principle "building at home, shaping abroad". A reference to Latin America is also made, namely visits to Brazil, Chile and Salvador in order to create new alliances. This show increased efforts to improve relations. The US supports the responsibility by the countries of the region which help for farmers, doctors and fight with corruption which is detrimental to the development of society. A broader context of relations is a positive step and the US administration seeks that. Typically, in the second half of the term in office some results and the effectiveness of applied instruments should be measured. President B. Obama in his speech in 201276 does that and emphasizes achievements in foreign policy. In particular, there are no troops in Iraq anymore and Al Qaeda loses its influence (leader Osama bin Laden and other leaders were killed), changes in Arab countries are mentioned and positively appreciated. International isolation as a measure is proposed to apply for regimes that are dangerous, although a possibility to return to a appropriate way is left for these countries. Meanwhile talking about the progress in relations with Latin America, the president claims that it became more closer. However, some critics say that cooperation does not bring tangible results and in the speech there is only a laconic mentioning of this region.77 Partially, it is possible to agree with such comments. As the power of other countries of world rise, the US receives criticism. B. Obama responds to the assessment by skeptics about a declining US authority - "Yes, the world is changing. No, we

75 Barack Obama: "Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress on the State of the Union," January 25, 2011. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project. Found: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=88928; seen: 2013-12-04 76 Barack Obama: "Address Before a Joint Session of Congress on the State of the Union," January 24, 2012. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project. Found: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=99000; seen: 2013-12-03 77 Latin America Largely Lost in Obama‟s State of the Union Address, The Latin American Herald Tribune. Found: http://laht.com/article.asp?CategoryId=12394&ArticleId=465491; seen: 2013-12-06

41 can't control every event. But America remains the one indispensable nation in world affairs, and as long as I'm President, I intend to keep it that way."78 For this purpose, a new defense strategy has been proposed and there is a strong confidence expressed concerning the US power. Basically, the economic recovery helps to soften other processes. It should be noted that from now on the focus is on industry. It is worth to mention that representatives of Latin America are the residents of different countries, especially those that are close to the US borders in 2013 before B. Obama delivered an address, expressed their hope that focus on migration barriers, regional problems and appropriate proposals will be included in it.79 That speech about the state of the union, given on February 12th80 is special in the sense that it was delivered after the elections, starting the second term. President B. Obama had an opportunity to reassure his ability to adequately manage the administration and formulate both domestic and foreign policies. Therefore, a progress is stressed in a speech - the end of war in Iraq, recession, newly created 6 million job places and decreasing energy dependence from foreign oil reserves. This report pinpoints one relevant problem in the US of illegal immigration and reforms are proposed because for it. The work of administration can be evaluated quite positively recently, because it seeks to adopt long term legal and political practice and structure of fight against terrorism. Among the new guidelines for policy makers, there is an instruction to deal with cyber attacks and improve defense. Despite various economic hardships which are already in the past, the US having a strategy gradually builds its status from the beginning. This country remain loyal to its principles and freedoms and democratic values that are propagated (continues to promote the spread of them in different regions, including in Latin America). Moreover, such global challenges as poverty, openness for problems of other states and development assistance are one of the priorities that B. Obama has published. Delivering the State of the Union 2014, president B. Obama mainly stressed the general achievements and some changes in foreign policy. Worth noting are two tendencies. Firstly, China is not treated as the most favorable place for investment - the US retook this status. Secondly, B. Obama claims that after 5 years of hard work the US maintain its strong positions for the 21st century. In the address, the creation of jobs (to prevent crises), focus on small-businesses, further

78 Barack Obama: "Address Before a Joint Session of Congress on the State of the Union," January 24, 2012. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project. Found: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=99000; seen: 2013-12-03 79 State of the Union: Latinos Hope President Obama Prioritizes Their Top Interests, Fox News Latino (February 12, 2013). Found: http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2013/02/12/state-union-latinos-hope-president-obama-prioritizes-their-top- interests/; seen: 2013-12-07 80 Barack Obama: "Address Before a Joint Session of Congress on the State of the Union," February 12, 2013. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project. Found: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=102826; seen: 2013-12-03

42 development of Trans-Pacific Partnership are marked as important goals. Moreover, energy independence, cleaner energy economy and women rights (their role) are significant areas. Talking about the foreign policy, several points were noted. First of all, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that largely shaped US foreign policy in the recent decade had been almost finished. Related to this was an idea was expressed that the US should not engage into costly wars that waste resources and encourages extremism. Constant state of war is harmful and non-military methods, especially diplomacy should become a significant pillar of US power. Therefore, the use of drones for intelligence programs is justified, but it is not allowed to violate the privacy of ordinary people.81 The State of the Union 2014 address reveals what global goals the US pursue. Namely, it seeks "to forge greater cooperation, to expand new markets, to free people from fear and want. And no one is better positioned to take advantage of those opportunities than America."82 A remark that European countries are one of the strongest allies partly show some kind of change in treatment. Regarding the Americas, B. Obama specifies commerce, cultural and education exchanges as common agenda. Basically, the main message of this speech was that the US remain the most powerful state and balance of power in international arena has not changed despite economic crisis and other factors (like wars abroad and etc.). In 2015 address83, president B. Obama sought to make some amendments on both domestic and external policy. He laid down three priorities - economy with opportunities for everyone, "smart leadership" using whole US power and potential and lastly a focus on common purpose. It was noted that economy is growing, the US leads in oil, gas and wind sectors, mission in Afghanistan is over. However there are various fields to improve performance. China seeks to gain status of fastest growing region and control the system, but as B. Obama claimed the US cannot allow this and should defend its interests. He admitted some mistakes previously moving businesses and manufacturing capacity abroad, for ex. in China. Now focus should lean on middle-class economics and not only free, but also fair trade agreements with other states. In foreign policy, a 'broader strategy' should be applied avoiding meaningless conflicts. President talked about four crucial areas. That is, a fight against terrorism and there is some progress concerning ISIS. Moreover, he highlighted the US diplomacy and strength that it will not allow for big states to undermine smaller (the case of Russia and Ukraine). Also, a breakthrough in diplomatic and economic US-Cuban relations have been noted where Pope Francis and Vatican

81 Barack Obama: "Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress on the State of the Union," January 28, 2014. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project. Found: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=104596; seen: 2015-01-19 82 Ibid. 83 Barack Obama: "Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress on the State of the Union," January 20, 2015. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project. Found: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=108031; seen: 2015-02-14

43 contributed as well. Furthermore, president names various issues and challenges in different regions. One of them is cyber-attacks. West-Africa needs help in reducing poverty and improving health care. In Asia-Pacific, the US modernizes alliances, fosters trade, and also oversees nonproliferation, commitments to climate change and how maritime disputes are solved. Namely, climate change is given a special importance. The US cooperates with many countries on that, including China. At the same time the US in its foreign policy highlights principles and “soft power”. Such values like human dignity, justice and civil rights are significant. However, notably there is no mentioning of Latin America in this latest address. This shows that little attention for this particular region continues. In general, all the speeches of period 2009-2015 are characterized by the fact that a higher place in presidential rhetoric is occupied with domestic affairs. This was influenced by the economic crisis and a need to turn to the functioning of the state initiating reconstructions. Despite that the president gives a significant attention to the status of the US in the world and its foreign policy. Meanwhile Latin America as such is just slightly mentioned. However, there are attempts to implement the principles of democracy and states of the region are treated as important trade partners for the US.

3.2. The declared China's national interests in Latin America

Understanding the interests of China in Latin America and to what extent it diverge from the US, it is essential to look at its National security strategy. On January 23d the Politburo of the Communist Party of China declared the outline of this document. Although not disclosing full text, some priorities can be seen. That is, China seeks to ensure its own national interests and will promote the common prosperity of all countries. Despite the fact that mainly China's goals remain centered inwards (on domestic issues), in foreign policy it focuses on three main points: 1) great power relations; 2) security environment in China's immediate neighborhood and 3) cooperation among developing countries. The underlying feature is that China will "proactively participate in regional and global governance".84 This last point can be applied for China's more active engagement in world matters through various institutions, like APEC, BRICS and etc. It is now clear that China has become an important player in international arena. It is also an observer in the OAS and has a peacekeeping mission in Haiti. But more interesting tendency is that its behavior now include elements of an imperialist state expanding influence in various regions (especially in developing nations) by using its "soft power", economic and diplomatic means. This

84 Tiezzi, S. China's National Security Strategy, The Diplomat (Jan 24, 2015). Found: http://thediplomat.com/2015/01/chinas-national-security-strategy/; seen: 2015-02-27

44 is apparent in Latin America's context as well. For instance, in 2010 it reached 100 billion USD per year volume of trade (in comparison the US - 560 billion USD and the EU - 250 billion USD). Apart from that the relations are developed by maintaining political, cultural, trade and military contacts. Generally, China uses a twofold strategy for its policy on Latin America - political and economic. It seeks to gain access to materials and goods, ensure its economic growth. Moreover, support for its political ideas, multipolar world vision and on issues like Taiwan is substantial for China.85 Basically, this strategy shapes the pursuance of contemporary China's goals in Latin America. One of the main pillars of China's policy in this particular region are economic ties and trade. It has strategic interests for energy, agricultural imports and other resources. In order to reach benevolence among Latin American states, China wisely invest in South American infrastructure and use it not only as an economic boost, but also as a diplomatic tool. Moreover, China seeks goodwill and spread of its culture. This in fact mean that China while providing economic support and using its soft power wants political backing and cooperation on various issues.86 In this respect, it is somewhat similar what the US does, although under other circumstances and the two states have different backgrounds of presence in the region. There are some features of China's strategic engagement in Latin America that have to be noted. In a discussion organized by the Inter-American Dialogue there was a statement that China does not pose a direct threat for the US and Latin America itself, but rather have implications for regional geopolitics and security issues. Despite that, it is expected that China's pursuit of interests will lead to transformations in bilateral relations with the US. Regarding China's military presence in the region, so far it is limited (small-scale relations). A bigger problem noticeable at the moment is the increasing number of criminal activities having links with China.87 The most apparent place where China's and the US interests clash is the former's investments in strategic sectors like telecommunications and space industries. The problem is that Chinese firms apply less standards. Another feature is that China although willing to engage actively, perceives Latin America as a risky investment destination. Therefore, future China's plans are unclear and will be motivated by its own needs. The last conclusion provided by Margaret Mayers is that China pays attention to the US reaction on its increasing presence.88 China's activities in the region have to be analyzed more in detail.

85 Siega, V. What is China's interest in Latin America? International Viewpoint online magazine (June 7, 2010). Found: http://www.internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?article1883; seen: 2015-03-01 86 Tiezzi, S. China's Goals in South America, The Diplomat (Jul 18, 2014). Found: http://thediplomat.com/2014/07/chinas-goals-in-south-america/; seen: 2015-02-17 87 China's Strategic Engagement with Latin America, Inter-American Dialogue (January 13, 2014). Found: http://chinaandlatinamerica.com/2014/01/13/chinas-strategic-engagement-in-latin-america/; seen: 2015-03-02 88 Ibid.

45 Generally, China has clear and pragmatic interests in Latin America. Due to the fact that China is growing economy and needs many resources to feed its huge population, improve infrastructure and manufacturing, lean more towards a key player in world affairs, it seeks cooperation with different regions. Latin America is a good destination for trade (mainly) and political goals. Despite that it has some potential to improve relations in other areas. China uses rather different approach and practices than the US dealing with Latin America. For the US, Latin America still associates as a neighboring region with close historical ties, giving priority for regional stability and security matters rather than economic interdependence (although priorities are gradually changing). Meanwhile China is more practical, focus on trade and investment and does that in a favorable manner for many Latin American states (with less strict rules, familiar ideological affinities and common goals of development and growth).

3.3. The intersection of the declared US and China's interests in Latin America and Brazil

In order to understand the interests of a country, various elements have to be taken into account. Quite often US-Latin American territorial proximity is mentioned as an important factor. Close economic, cultural ties determines the nature of relationship and interdependence, also causes some threats. More than a decade before, the US-Latin American cooperation was in high level and very promising, now this tendency has become doubtful. The strategic interests by US could be generalized into three categories – military, economic and political. These are the fields where US gives most of its priority. As it was previously noted, the declared interests usually become a real basis for certain policies. Militarily, the US has a twofold interest – to supervise possible rise of military threats to US territory from Latin America and also prevent hostile powers from gaining influence in the region. Especially, there is a fear that it would diminish US political and economic interests. In economic sphere, the US seeks to promote the economic development of Latin America in the ways that match with US economic interests. Meanwhile, politically, there is an interest in democratic political regimes of Latin American countries, respecting rule of law and international human rights standards.89 However, author S. Gilbert unveils that historically the promotion of democratic values has not been a key policy concern for the US (it supported dictatorships and promoted technocratic elite). Instead, economic and socials factors (like protection of resources for extraction) have been

89 Coll, A. R. United States Strategic Interests in Latin America, Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs Vol. 39, No. 1, 1997. P. 45; 46. Found: http://www.jstor.org/stable/166495; seen: 2015-03-15

46 much more important. But democracy promotion has been used to cover US imperialism in Latin America.90 This feature can be seen up to these days. Actually, it is said that in the Post Cold-War period, the US has three main interests: (1) to maintain its supremacy and leadership; (2) to ensure its technological lead and military superiority; and (3) to create an economic environment favorable to American business.91 Besides, there are more interests by US, but more specifically in regional security. That is, peaceful settlement of disputes, transparency in arms acquisitions and development of security and confidence-building measures. But most importantly, the US seeks to enhance regional cooperation on transnational problems such as terrorism, drug trafficking, international crime and illegal migration.92 It is worth to note that secure neighborhood gives an opportunity for the US to concentrate its resources, power to act worldwide. But despite that J. Tulchin notice that the Obama administration wish “to move away from the unilateralism of the Bush administration and to adopt a more collegial approach to the hemisphere presents an opportunity for the nations in the region to take a more protagonist approach to hemispheric affairs.”93 Equal cooperation would be definitely beneficial for both sides. The current US president B. Obama in key document – National Security Strategy (2010) has declared main priorities in Latin America. That is, to “work in equal partnership to advance economic and social inclusion, safeguard citizen safety and security, promote clean energy, and defend universal values of the people of the hemisphere.”94 These areas at the moment shape the political agenda. Despite that, the present foreign policy course has several basic features. Firstly, due to interference and ambiguously applied democratic principles, it can be evaluated as controversial. Namely, cases of not preventing of Honduran coup d'état95, violations of WTO regulations because of Bolivia and Brazil, threatening of democratically elected government in Haiti96 and etc. proves this notion. A contrary view to a popular belief is demonstrated in a policy brief presented by Brookings this March. Authors claim that although traditional US instruments of influence are not effective, nevertheless its core interests in Latin America are largely secured. Basically, the US policy toward this region is organized around general interests and regional institutions like IDB, OAS and

90 Gilbert, S. The U.S. Policy of Democracy Promotion in Latin America, Senior Honor Theses, Paper 148, 2008. P. 1; 42. Found: http://commons.emich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1147&context=honors; seen: 2015-03-15 91 Ibid., P. 43 92 Rabasa, A. Challenges to Security in the Hemishpere, Center for Hemispheric Policy, 2010. P. 1. Found: https://umshare.miami.edu/web/wda/hemisphericpolicy/Rabasa_Security.pdf ; seen: 2015-03-06 93 Tulchin, J. S. United States Policy and Security Interests in Latin America, Freidrich Ebert Stiftung, 2010. P. 1. Found: http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/la-seguridad/07424.pdf; seen: 2015-02-16 94 National Security Strategy by the U.S. President Barack Obama, 2010 May 26. P. 44. Found: http://nssarchive.us/NSSR/2010.pdf; seen: 2015-02-23 95 Buxton, J. Forward into History: Understanding Obama's Latin American Policy, Latin American Perspectives, 2011 38: 29. P. 36. Found: http://lap.sagepub.com/content/38/4/29.full.pdf+html; seen: 2015-02-23 96 Weisbrot, M. Obama‟s Latin America Policy: Continuity Without Change, Latin American Perspectives, 2011. P. 4- 7. Found: http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/obamas-latin-america-policy-2011-05.pdf; seen: 2015-02-23

47 Summits of the Americas are used for this purpose. It is important to mention that the US in its policy on Latin America makes a distinction between wealthier states, smaller developing states and non-cooperative states. Brazil is included in the list of prosperous democracies and from these states the US expect collaboration on global governance and issues such as climate change, public health or international trade. In addition, on regional basis it seeks cooperation on free trade, education, innovation, infrastructure and energy security. Despite that, it is noted that security issues will remain significant.97 This latest brief reveals that main US interests are (1) progressive, resilient political democracies with respect for human rights; (2) reasonably well-managed, market-oriented economies open to global trade and investment; (3) inter-state peace among nations; and (4) the absence of credible threats to the United States from international terrorism or weapons of mass destruction.98 This in fact show an intention to keep the same line along its core interests. At the moment, the US foreign policy agenda is directed to four different problems in Latin America that affect the relationship with this region - immigration; trade; civil conflicts and drugs. These issues determine the use of instruments. It is important to stress that all these factors contribute to the economic development and cooperation of the US and Latin America. In fact, namely economic cooperation is becoming more important recently. But it is inevitably related to other interests - a broader goal to maintain political and military dominance in the region (by creating beneficial economic structure). The development and safety of Latin America region has a direct impact for the US national security, prosperity. As the US position and level of dominance historically changes, country needs to adapt to the current situation and arising challenges. Looking from a historical perspective the US has faced with various threats while pursuing its foreign policy objectives. The main challenges have been political, economic and military (security) by nature. It should be mentioned that in parallel with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the threat from communist Cuba have also declined, given the recent developments of US policy on Cuba. It no longer can incite insurgencies in Latin America. However, authors mention a possibility of a collapse of regime in the form of catastrophic violence and disorder which could pose a threat to the US security. Moreover, Cuba might engage in biological warfare if it would develop the capability for that. The second problem the US faces is the spread of weapons of mass destruction and of missile technologies, but this issue is being resolved. For instance, the biggest countries of the region like Brazil or Argentina has reduced its capacities to some extent. But the most persistent problem is export of illegal drugs from Latin

97 Better Than You Think: Reframing Inter-American Relations, Brookings Policy Brief (March, 2015). P. 14. Found: http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2015/03/inter-american-relations-feinberg-miller- trinkunas/better-than-you-think--reframing-interamerican-relations.pdf; seen: 2015-02-23 98 Overview of Brookings Policy Brief (March, 2015). Found: http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2015/03/reframing-inter-american-relations; seen: 2015-02-23

48 America.99 Actually, the US has to adopt sound strategies in order to control the situation and diminish security threats in the region. Apart from that, strategic political and economic interests are important. The US seeks stability in Latin America and the improvement of democracy in this region is noticeable. But in some countries human rights protection is not sufficient enough and democracy is not stable. This creates a worrying signal and distorts the relationship. Meanwhile in economic field, there are more positive marks. Particularly, the spread of economic liberalism, formation of NAFTA and inclusion of Mexico deserves to be noted. It allowed maintaining the idea of a more close hemispheric ties and free-trade area. But it also strengthened US position in negotiations and persuasion of governments to take various reforms in Latin American societies. Notwithstanding, the US has some problems in reaching its economic goals, especially due to the huge poverty and high rates of unemployment in the region. Likewise, a failure to bring incremental dividends in short term and evident economic benefits might impel Latin American countries to revert to previous economic order.100 But despite negative aspects, there are efforts for intensification of economic cooperation. The main challenges to US interests are generalized by author A. Rabasa. These include the ongoing drug war in Mexico which has impact for regional security, the emergence of Brazil as a regional power, the rise of neo-populist regimes and movements in Latin America (particularly in Venezuela). Moreover, transition in Columbia and fight against insurgent groups, new forms of illegal drug trade and energy security issues are noted. Not of secondary importance is the interference of other powers like China, Russia, and Iran.101 US national and hemispheric security is highlighted. Actually, the US deals with Latin American power centers where Brazil surpasses other states in the region and possibility of Mexico to become a failed state. To prevent that, the agenda of US-Mexico relationship is marked with issues of NAFTA, immigration reform and drug traffic issues. Brazil has complex relations both with its neighbors and with the US. Therefore, an appropriate strategy on cooperation is needed. By explaining security concerns J. S. Tulchin claims that the structural asymmetry of power and capabilities is the major difficulty of US foreign policy in Latin America. In strategic terms, the region is without coherent collective regional stance towards international security issues. First of all, it turns out that regime in Venezuela is not a threat, but more likely a challenge to which a proper diplomatic response is essential. Secondly, the US does not recognize any serious threat from within the region at the moment. Of course, there are fields like drugs and organized crime, border security. But more importantly trade as vital interest due to economic crisis came to a lesser degree in recent years. Talking about potential threat by such countries like China, Russia or Iran, it

99 Coll, A. R. Op. cit. P. 46-50 100 Ibid., P. 51-55 101 Rabasa, A. Op. cit. P. 2

49 can be stated that only China via trade and investments can create enduring challenge for US influence in the region.102 The US should adopt counterbalance instruments for such countries and at the moment closer relationship is emphasized resulting in more frequent visits, dialogue to solve common problems. Apart from these general tendencies, there are several specific fields of cooperation and challenges between US and Latin America. Here the promotion of democracy, trade liberalization can be mentioned. However, D. P. Taylor sees a trend that there is an erosion of euphoria regarding security issues and about democratic and economic reforms in Latin America. The development has not been significant. In addition, different level of perception of security threats (for US the main concern after 2001 is terrorism) makes relationship not fully collaborative by Latin American countries.103 What is more, an exceptional feature of Latin America region is that various indigenous movements have emerged during last decades. This has been welcomed with suspicion by US politicians fearing that these movements would threaten US interests, undermine democracy and exacerbate ethnic polarization.104 Nonetheless, it has been found that all of these points have been exaggerated, because movements in some cases even facilitated to democratic development of states or at least had legitimate reasons to oppose initiatives by US. It is possible to lay down some recommendations for US foreign policy makers. First of all, a more friendly and equal approach should be applied towards Latin America. Only by adding elements of soft power instead of increasing power would give prospects for securing US interests. Given the current situation, in fact, Brazil might be the sole strategic opportunity to safeguard own interests. The US should try to support leadership of Brazil in the region.105 Consequently, agreements in military, economic and other fields would let to control the situation. L. R. Madrid notes that the US should try to engage indigenous movements in Latin America. Moreover, it should reorient its controversial counternarcotics policy by limiting eradication method.106 There are various fields where more efforts should be put to strengthen ties in order to achieve national interests. This decade of US foreign policy in Latin America reflects incomplete approach, thus, new actions should be taken to foster the relationship. In general, several key points illustrate the current level of US-Latin America relationship. In fact, no country in the Hemisphere can pose a serious military threat to US territory. The main

102 Tulchin, J. S. Op. cit. P. 3-5 103 Taylor, P. D. Latin American Security Challenges: A Collaborative Inquiry from North and South, 2004. P. 1. Found: https://www.usnwc.edu/Publications/Naval-War-College-Press/-Newport-Papers/Documents/21-pdf.aspx; seen: 2015-03-14 104 Madrid, R. L. Indigenous Movements, Democracy, and U.S. Interests in Latin America, Western Hemisphere Security Analysis Center, Paper 26, 2011. P. 1. Found: http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1025&context=whemsac; seen: 2015-02-26 105 Tulchin, J. S. Op. cit. P. 10-11 106 Madrid, R. L. Op. cit. P. 21

50 security threat, though, is illegal drugs. However, the economic and political view is puzzling and needs reliable instruments to ensure US national interests in the context of cooperation.107 Various challenges and opportunities force to create a sound strategy towards Latin America region. A. Rabasa provides a vision about two possible future scenarios. He instills that at minimum, the US will continue engaging militarily in the region. This will be done by irregular warfare – supporting friendly states and also facing with insurgencies. However, as author claims there is a possibility that Latin America might emerge as a new strategic center of gravity. New power center would try to reduce US influence.108 In both cases, the US should have a clear and active role so that it could maintain its power and achieve strategic interests in the region. Having analyzed both the US and China's declared interests in Latin America, it is important to make some generalizations about the intersection of them and what themes/topics prevail in bilateral and regional agenda. A table provided below shows what kind of interests the two countries have in this particular region. Three categories of political, economic and security/military areas have been chosen to compare them.

Table No. 3. US and China's interests in Latin America. The United States China Political level (1) promotion of democracy, (1) diplomatic support for "One China" human rights and rule of law; policy and in territorial disputes; (2) political support for regional (2) to reach ignorance of various human and global initiatives (security, rights violations and flawed conditions economic growth, environment and for democracy; etc.) (3) disregard to the fact that China does (3) cooperation through OAS, not apply many international rules and Summits of the Americas; standards; (4) to maintain dominance in the (4) idea of multipolar world and support region for China's rise of power; (5) counterbalance for the US influence in region and contacts with countries of similar communist or leftist ideology (like Cuba, Venezuela) Economic level (1) energy (promotion of (1) trade (to secure access to natural renewable resources or alternative resources, commodities and energy - types of energy (clean energy)); seek for its own economic growth); (2) trade; (2) investments (to gain economic and (3) loans; political benefits); (4) investments; (3) loans and economic assistance (5) economic assistance (for (directed to infrastructure and other various areas - political, economic, fields, to contribute to Latin America's security reforms) development and reach benevolence for further China's activities and presence

107 Coll, A. R. Op. cit. P. 55-56 108 Rabasa, A. Op. cit. P. 9-10

51 in the region) Military/security (1) to maintain military presence in (1) support for its allies and regimes of level the region (various military bases similar ideology and capabilities for intelligence) supervising the rise of military threats or hostile powers; (2) prevention of other threats (insurgent groups, terrorism), regional instability; (3) fight against criminal activities (narcotics, human trafficking, illegal immigration) Source: Composed by an author of the Master's thesis by using a collected information preparing Chapter 3 about the declared US and China's interests in Latin America.

Basically, it can be said that the US seeks cooperation with Latin American countries to achieve broader goals. It wants to maintain leadership (power) and preserve international system directed to global economic growth (prosperity), security (peace) and democratic values (principles). However, in the present the US faces four main problems such as immigration, trade (inefficient), civil conflicts and drugs. Therefore, its policy is based on various and all-round interests. Whereas China's engagement in the region is predominantly motivated by an objective to become important, essential player in the world. For this purpose it puts efforts to foster close ties in different regions. Despite that, it was mentioned that China in its strategy focus more on cooperation among developing countries. It tries to be active in world matter through various institutions (e.g. BRICS). As it is shown in the table, although there is similar willingness to use international or regional forums to conciliate Latin American countries, however interests contrast in political level. That is because China and the US seek different goals. For China, political consent is needed to support its flawed democracy and various violations of international law, also to ensure smooth adjustments in international arena reacting to China's rise of power (more important role). As for the US, it wants to reform Latin America into a democratic, peaceful and cooperative region. But for this purpose it indirectly needs to maintain dominance which would allow to ensure its own national interests and to make impact on processes and development in the region. Viewing the economic dimension, it can be noted that China's policy is primarily based on economic ties and trade. It seeks to get resource security for its own growth, to invest, to avoid some barriers. Therefore, China has serious ambitions in trade, getting access to natural resources, food and etc. The US has a bit different goals, not only to secure economic benefits, but also to promote issues of global concern (for example clean energy). Unlike China which contributes to the economical, social development of the region, the US provides economic assistance willing to make

52 reforms in different areas (political, economic and security). This is done to ensure democratic changes, more peaceful and more prosperous environment in Latin America. At the same time, the US is concerned more than China in security/military field, because of the geographic proximity, possible military and other threats given some unfavorable countries like Cuba, Venezuela and issues of terrorism, criminal activities (drugs, human trafficking) and so forth. The US has reasons to be motivated to keep more focus on this dimension rather than China. Generally, some differences in the interests of China and the US lie because of distinct experiences and backgrounds of relations with this particular region. The US is linked with Latin America by historical ties, neighborhood, as a consequence, it gives priority for regional stability and security matters, though trade becomes increasingly more important. While China without having different factors influencing its foreign policy and engaging into Latin American matters very late in terms of time, prioritizes different issues and aspects. It focus on trade, investment, loans and development (infrastructure). Apart from that, there are additional levels that influence agendas in dealing with Latin America. The US is interested in cooperation in fields like telecommunications, academic exchange, tourism. It also gives importance on the preservation of ethnic traditions, cultural ties (language, family ties), immigration and other aspects. China notably has less fields of interest, but it finds ways to cooperate in telecommunications and promote its own culture. In this way, one more difference can be mentioned. The US policy in relations with Latin America relies on both hard and soft powers, while China now is only capable to pursue soft power. China already is cooperating with Cuba, Venezuela and small-scale arms deals are made. In addition, it can be said that both countries have some unofficial or not publicly declared interests in the region. In the following chapter the US and China's activities in the region are emphasized.

53 4. THE U.S. AND CHINA'S ACTIVITIES IN LATIN AMERICA

REGION

It is quite obvious that the US has strong presence in Latin America and historical ties with particular countries have been close. Mainly the cooperation is conducted in political, economic and security fields. Especially at the moment economic issues prevail in order to seek prosperity. Despite that, as the US and countries from Latin America face with regional and global challenges, they are involved in solving various problems and cooperation encompass more aspects. However, in the recent decade, China takes a more proactive role and its activities could be seen. In this chapter a special case study analysis of Brazil is made in order to reveal the US activities in the region in pursuing its interests. This is done by providing the general context of US bilateral relations with the abovementioned country and also analyzing the official record of event data set in the period of year 2009-2014. At the end of the chapter a comparison with China's actions in Latin America is made.

4.1. The US activities in Latin America in the case of Brazil

4.1.1. The US practical actions in Latin America region (tools, formats)

The United States as a country having long-term and far-reaching national interests, which are oriented not only to domestic situation in the country, but concerned with global issues, acts in different fields. It applies methods and instruments at the same time in political, economic and security/military fields. It should be said that attempt to create alliances, to keep strategic partners in the region and persuade to act in the security field is of vital importance for the US. Issues like drugs, migration, possible military threats, civil conflicts and other are in the agenda. In political area, the US attempts to use its diplomatic channels through the OAS, Summits of the Americas and bilateral format. It is worth to take a deeper look at the economic dimension, because the US puts various efforts to strengthen economic ties. Economic policy of a country takes an important place in its development, allows maintaining power and ensuring resources. At the same time, rational choice of economic instruments and initiatives might help to achieve foreign policy goals. It was mentioned previously that the US now bases its security and power on economic strength. Basically, economic policy includes such aspects as trade, creation of forums, award of special status to certain entities or partner countries,

54 corporations and etc. Moreover, economy is interrelated with politics, various forms of security and for this reason it should be considered in a broader context when analyzing the general foreign policy course. Therefore, in this section the US economic policy in Latin America and particularly in Brazil is being discussed. The pursuit of economic interests has always been of central importance in the US-Latin America relations. In fact, it is possible to say that US foreign policy in this region was oriented mainly to support its economic interests. Since the very 19th century the US maintained its economic dominance and political influence. It was the main economic trade partner for countries of this region (export reached very high numbers). Furthermore, in oil sector "Standard Oil" company provided oil to the neighboring continent and was the monopoly. Other US company that dominated in Latin America was "The United Fruit" which grew, collected and exported fruits. There are more examples in history of US-Latin America relations. The end of 19th and beginning of 20th period was called "Banana Wars". Central America economy was based on raw materials and fruit industry. Therefore, the US sought to secure its commercial interests in the region and control objects of strategic importance for trade or other gains (e.g. the Panama Canal). Later, President Theodore Roosevelt extended Monroe doctrine by giving a right for state to military intervention in Latin America if countries are unstable or there is a threat for US economy or security.109 That is to say that US gained international police power. This helped to use such situation and US actively interfered in the matters of Latin American. This can be seen up to these days, as military bases in the Pacific Ocean are established in order to guarantee a safe access of trade markets for the US fleet. Various important international processes in political and economic order, growth of institutions, regulations influenced the balance of power and US being hegemony pursued its economic interests not only regionally in Hemisphere, but globally. It had double effects. On the one hand, the promotion of free trade and globalization allowed imposing its economic model. On the other hand, it created conditions for other countries or regional blocs (like European Union) to emerge as important players and limit US actions. It is also important to have in mind new challenges and threats that arose such as communism, drugs trafficking, terrorism and anti-Americanism. At the same time US engagement in external conflicts (Afghanistan, Iraq and other) and economic crises distracted the US attention from Latin America region, its economic development and had implications for previously successful economic policy. Contemporary economic relations have evolved from several initiatives that shaped the general environment of economic integration and trade features between US and Latin America. Actually, just before a decade there were no signs of US disengagement from the regional matters.

109 Theodore Roosevelt's Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine (1905), A National Initiative on American History, Civics, and Service. Found: http://www.ourdocuments.gov/doc.php?doc=56; seen: 2015-03-18

55 In fact, ambitious economic policy was pursued to sustain the dominance. One of its examples is the FTAA initiative to create a deep economic integration between the US and Latin America. Also, implicitly it meant a virtual binding of Latin American economies to the US and limitations for other regions to have commercial relations with this area. Some authors claim that US proposal of the FTAA is a clear example of hegemonic stability or "divide and conquer" strategy.110 Basically, it included two goals. First of all, it was part of global US trade strategy to reduce barriers to trade and investment. Secondly, it had implication for the promotion of closer cooperation in the hemisphere to deal with economic, social and economic problems. The US was interested in trade and also safe, prosperous and democratic neighborhood. Thus, the US projected economic policy in a broader context - by using economic means to pursue its other foreign policy goals. And this was the divergent vision, because Brazil and other partners of the Common Market of the Southern Cone (MERCOSUR) only focused on economic cooperation.111 This created tensions and led not only to the failure of this initiative but also to various disputes. The US and Brazil filed complaints to the WTO, including cotton case.112 In this respect Brazil was more successful proving US discriminatory economic practices. Mario Carranza gives an example comparing Brazil and Mexico bargaining powers in two different US-led economic initiatives (FTAA and NAFTA). Brazil is a regional leader within Mercosur bloc, also during FTAA negotiations countries of the region started to challenge the US over agricultural subsidies. And last advantage is that Brazil as a global trader was less dependent on the US market.113 It is possible to claim that having all economic leverage the US offered a more flexible trade model for Latin American states and negotiations between two regional leaders - the US and Brazil in principle represented the future of regional economic development and trade relations. Raul Hinojosa-Ojeda is convinced that this project would have been beneficial for both sides. Particularly it applies for Brazil which would gain not only by free trade with the US, but with extra-regional markets as well.114 It would provide most gains. The outcome of FTAA failure is unknown and now different instruments are being applied.

110 Carranza, M. E. Mercosure, The Free Trade Area of the Americas, and the Future of U.S. Hegemony in Latin America, Fordham International Law Journal, Volume 27, Issue 4, 2003. P. 1032; 1034; 1058. Found: http://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2270&context=ilj; seen: 2015-03-12 111 Schott, J. J. US-Brazil Trade Relations in a New Era, Institute for International Economics, 2003. P. 18; 19. Found: http://www.iie.com/publications/papers/schott1103-2.pdf; seen: 2014-11-12 112 Ibid., P. 13 113 Carranza, M. E. Mercosure, The Free Trade Area of the Americas, and the Future of U.S. Hegemony in Latin America, Fordham International Law Journal, Volume 27, Issue 4, 2003. P. 1060. Found: http://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2270&context=ilj; seen: 2014-11-12 114 Hinojosa-Ojeda, R. A. Brazil and the United States at the Gateway of the FTAA: A CGE Modeling Approach to Challenges and Options, North American Integration and Development Center, 2000. P. 22; 24; 26. Found: http://www.cap.lmu.de/transatlantic/download/Hinojosatext.PDF; seen: 2014-11-12

56 Instruments

Making an overview of US economic policy, it should be mentioned that the success of it depends on various instruments - NAFTA, FTAA, the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and TPP and other initiatives. The rally point is that different formats (bilateral, regional, and multilateral) are being used to achieve US economic goals. This can be explained by the fact that Latin America is a diverse region and each country has different preferences. NAFTA is an instrument for the US to have essentially close relations with its neighboring two big countries - Canada and Mexico. FTAA was an extended model for other Latin American countries, but it received opposition. Therefore, the most reliable option was to strengthen economic ties with every country in the region. By now the US has entered into six FTAs which involve 11 countries115, but there are many trade agreements within Latin America that excludes the US. Consequently, the US tries to find new ways to gain influence and economic benefits from this region. It does so by negotiating for Trans-Pacific Partnership trade integration which involves some substantial areas like labor rights, intellectual property rights (IPR) and environmental protection aspect.116 Barbara Kotschwar and Jeffrey J. Schott provide three possible scenarios of this initiative. That is, (1) the status quo forward (Latin America left out); (2) the coalition of the willing (only interested countries would participate) and (3) the multilateral booster (all inclusive free-trade agreement). In fact, the latter seems to be most attractive and positive for both US and Latin America, but least likely, because of the remaining important challenge of US-Brazil negotiations and regional division in trade policies.117 Generally, FTAs or other form of US trade agreements can be viewed as impressive achievements. It should be noted that free trade agreements as an instrument began to provide benefits and trade with Latin America has increased significantly (especially export). Also, positively is seen Trans-Pacific Partnership initiative to respond to the growing Chinese trade and financial power. Namely because of the growing competition from other countries, the US has to find ways to improve the current FTA format to offer advantage and new boost for economic cooperation. As a result, B. Obama is trying to engage into more intensive relations with such countries like Brazil, Chile, Peru and Mexico. Another interesting change in US foreign policy is that it now seeks economic development rather than fight against drug trafficking which is really

115 The US has signed The Free Trade Agreements (FTA) with Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Ncaragua, Panama and Peru. Unfortunately, such type of agreement has not been reached with Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela (key Latin American countries). 116 Sullivan, M. P. Latin America and the Caribbean: Key Issues for the 113th Congress, CRS Report, 2014. P. 19-20. Found: http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/231778.pdf; seen: 2014-11-12 117 Kotschwar, B. and Schott, J. J. The Next Big Thing? The Trans-Pacific Partnership & Latin America, Americas Quarterly, 2013. Found: http://americasquarterly.org/next-big-thing-trans-pacific-partnership; seen: 2014-11-12

57 difficult and inefficient. This can be viewed positively, because namely the economic cooperation is the basis of US-Latin America relations.

Trade and investment

Trade is one of the most enduring issues between the US and Latin America, thus, a successful development of it largely determines the solution of other problems. This region is far from being the most important regional US trade partner, but trade has been growing considerably for a long time. Looking at the statistics, it can be noted that during 1998-2009 period volume of total US trade with Latin America grew by 82 %.118 US sales and import between 2000 and 2012 nearly doubled and the share increased from 19 to 22 percent (see Annex No. 2 and Annex No. 3). What is interesting that numbers of remittances are quiet high (around $60 billion). Trade trends (see Annex No. 4 and Annex No. 5) show that clearly the main trade partner is Mexico. It amounts to 54 percent of US exports and 62 percent of US imports. With other partners in comparison the US has lower trade rates. Regional leader Brazil is a second trade partner. In 2012, US export to Brazil reached 43.7 US$ billions (with Mexico - 215.9 US$ billions) and import from Brazil comprised 32.1 US$ billions (with Mexico - 277.6 US$ billions). Other partners of similar volume (see Annex No. 4 and Annex No. 5) are Colombia, Venezuela and Chile.119 This shows that differences are vast, but economic cooperation with Latin America, especially with Brazil is steadily increasing. Foreign direct investment tendencies and financial assistance is another field which supplements economic cooperation. During 2000 and 2012 period the US FDI increased by 83%. This indicates that the US holds interest in this region, while Latin American FDI fluctuates and is not so significant (see Annex No. 6). It is needless to say that US investments are mostly successful in strategically important states - Mexico and Brazil. In fact, the US and Brazil uses this form of cooperation as a substitute to circumvent restrictions on commercial exchange.120 This makes investments via private sector more essential. But despite that, the US is active in financial support for Latin America region. Since 1946, the United States has provided over $160 billion (constant 2012 dollars) in assistance to the region. Recently it helped to restore after 2010 earthquake in Haiti. Foreign assistance is one of the tools to advance US interests in the region, but due to internal economic

118 Hornbeck, J. F. U.S.-Latin America Trade: Recent Trends and Policy Issues, CRS Report for Congress, 2011. P. 2. Found: http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/98-840_20110208.pdf; seen: 2014-11-14 119 Hornbeck, J. F. US-Latin America Trade and Investment in the 21st Century: What‟s Next for Deepening Integration? Inter-American Dialogue Working Paper, 2014. P. 3-5. Found: http://www10.iadb.org/intal/intalcdi/PE/2014/13718.pdf; seen: 2014-11-18 120 Ibid., P. 8; 11

58 problems it decreases. Also, changes can be seen in Latin America itself as poverty level has declined and democracy has been consolidated. A very interesting fact is that Latin American countries have started to provide financial aid to other countries, which adds new feature to the US- Latin America economic cooperation. Generally, the US assistance is concentrated to few countries in Latin America (mainly Colombia, Mexico, and Haiti), because there are several central issues that the US has to address and focus on - drugs, antiterrorism, security and environment.121 The US president in his State of the Union speech in 2012 highlighted several very important things. In the trade section he named main priority - to double US exports over five years. This ambitious goal will be sought by intensifying visits to reach new markets, especially in Latin America. But most interestingly, B. Obama emphasized that some of the competitors do not play according to the rules. Particularly against China the US brought cases twice more often than previously. Even a Trade Enforcement Unit was created to investigate unfair trade practices and to use this instrument to fight with Chinese rivalry.122 There is an important tendency that although total trade between the US and Latin America is growing, however the occupied share of market with individual states is decreasing.

Challenges and recent tendencies

Trade between the US and Latin America faces with several challenges in 21st century which are related to the recent tendencies. In fact, three transition periods can be mentioned that shape current trade agenda. First of all, a recovery from the 2008-2009 economic crisis leaves a trace of downturns in global growth, trade and investment. There are concerns about new possible crises. Moreover, a composition of the US government is also important, because this aspect affects orientation towards trade policy. The political changes with the Republicans in office might bring not a very favorable environment, because the US will focus more on security matters and pragmatic policy. Although publicly trade and economic partnerships with Latin American countries is a priority, in practice it is difficult to achieve. In addition, a transition in direction of the trading system can be seen as negotiations in the WTO are not successful and this creates more tension. There is a tendency that trade with countries that have trade agreements with the US is relatively low. But Latin America helped to restore trade indexes, as export with this region is increasingly steady in comparison to European or Asian markets. Generally, US foreign direct

121 Meyer, P. J. U.S. Foreign Assistance to Latin America and the Caribbean: Recent Trends and FY2015 Appropriations, CRS Report, 2014. P. 1; 4; 8. Found: http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/231792.pdf; seen: 2014-11-17 122 Barack Obama: "Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress on the State of the Union," January 24, 2012. Found: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=99000; seen: 2014-11-17

59 investment in Latin America is off-setting the deficits on trade in goods.123 This shows that US- Latin America trade has potential, but several important factors account for general state of cooperation in this field. However, the future for deepening regional economic integration seems to be uncertain. That is because trade with different countries of LA does not reach high-level (except the case of Mexico). Also, instruments that the US is using in its economic policy are not fully working - FTA model provides both economic gains and economic problems (such as asymmetrical negotiation power). Actually, different goals as not satisfied expectations have negative impact for economic relations. The US seeks to maintain bargaining leverage in the WTO, while for Latin America reducing barriers to agricultural trade is a top goal. Lastly, the fact that some of the most important Latin American countries (Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela and other) are not willing to join FTAA model system raises problems. Basically, there are three underlying challenges that strain economic cooperation. First and probably foremost is that there is little progress and success in negotiations between Brazil and US over trade relations. Moreover, multiple FTAs create a sophisticated trading system with many different requirements and rules. Not of secondary importance is that Latin America region is expanding its trade with other countries.124 Michael Shifter, a president of Inter-American Dialogue, also admits that the US is no longer the only economic actor in Latin America and that China and EU take an important share. But contrary to the popular assumption, the US remains the key partner for nearly all countries in this region. He provides statistics that since 2000 trade flows between the US and Latin America more than doubled reaching $850 billion. Despite other powers presence in the region, total US trade with Latin America is three times bigger than that of China's. Close ties are particularly seen in investment trends. In fact, the US is largest investor in the region - in 2012 it constituted nearly a quarter of total $175 amount. Respectively, China only focused on tax havens for its FDI and in general showed weak rates. But an impressive finding is that trade and economic cooperation is close regardless political confrontation. For instance, US exports to Brazil grew about 200% in 2000-2012. But at the same time the US provides security assistance in Latin America. Initiatives like Plan Colombia, Merida Initiative or regional projects such as the Central America Regional Security Initiative (CARSI), the Caribbean Basin Security Initiative (CBSI) or Just the Facts can be

123 U.S. economic relations with Latin American and Caribbean countries in a time of transition, SELA SP/Di No. 4 - 12, 2012. P. 3-4. Found: http://www.sela.org/attach/258/default/Di- 4_US_economic_relations_with_LAC_countries_in_a_time_of_transition.pdf; seen: 2014-11-17 124 Hornbeck, J. F. U.S.-Latin America Trade: Recent Trends and Policy Issues, CRS Report for Congress, 2011. P. 2; 5-7. Found: http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/98-840_20110208.pdf; seen: 2014-11-17

60 mentioned.125 These previously mentioned tendencies and challenges in trade are relevant at the moment.

4.1.2. The US practical actions in relations with Brazil: political, economic and security areas

Both countries have close ties in various fields. Historically, cooperation has been strong regarding political, military and economic issues. However, different processes in international arena (globalization, new threats), changes in balance of power (geopolitical context) and economic situation influence the contemporary state of relations. There are two opinions - some experts are more optimistic that the US and Brazil will inevitably forge close strategic partnership126, while others believe that relations are deteriorating. Further, the information and analysis about the areas of US-Brazil cooperation is provided.

Political ties

In fact, a poll conducted in 2013 shows that Latina America becomes more fraternal towards the US, especially Brazil with 73 percent of correspondents viewing the US favorably is one of the most pro-American states.127 This has implications for a general framework of cooperation. The cordial relationship has been maintained by relatively close contacts between political leaders. Despite that, the two states have distinct political visions. There is a tendency that relations are warming, but current presidents Barack Obama and Dilma Rousseff are more preoccupied with domestic issues.128 Quite unique format is used to cooperate on presidential level. This is done by dialogues: 1) The Global Partnership Dialogue (GDP) on foreign policy; The Economic and Financial Dialogue (EFD); The Strategic Energy Dialogue (SED); and The Defense Cooperation Dialogue (DCD).129 Basically, it implies the priorities of both countries. In 2011 the US president B. Obama showed a more friendly approach and attention to Latin America by organizing several

125 Shifter, M. U.S. Influence in Latin America, LACC/ARC/U.S. Southern Command Policy Roundtable Series (March 5, 2014). Found: http://lacc.fiu.edu/research/publications/commissioned-paper-2014-michael-shifter.pdf; seen: 2014-11- 19 126 In international relations a concept 'strategic partnership' is quite ambiguous, although more often used. In fact, nations aim for deep cooperation with some states and highlight new level of relations by strategic partnerships. This type of format includes a wide range of issues and areas of cooperation. These partnerships show balancing of contradictory interests. 127 Latin America Views The United States Favorably, Pew Says, The Huffington Post (July 29, 2013). Found: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/29/latin-america-views-the-u_n_3672000.html; seen: 2015-02-22 128 Politics put to one side in sign of closer ties between Brazil and the US, Financial Times (May 16, 2013). Found: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9f9d81c6-b883-11e2-869f-00144feabdc0.html; seen: 2015-02-22 129 Brazil-U.S. Political Relations, Brazil-U.S. Business Council, 2013. P. 2. Found: http://www.brazilcouncil.org/sites/default/files/2%20Brazil-U.S.pdf; seen: 2015-02-22

61 visits to create new alliances.130 Brazil and the US maintain close diplomatic relations and bilateral meetings often end with agreements regulating different issues. What makes this relationship special and important is not only bilateral level, but also dealing with regional and global issues on multilateral basis. In particular, cooperation is close in different organizations. The US sought to maintain hemispheric influence through Organization of American States, although official goals are to promote democratization and ensure security. However, this initiative is limited by other more recent organizations due to high anti-Americanism trend within Latin America and globally. For instance, the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) was built for trade and economic policy while ALBA organization is a regional bloc for political and ideological integration of region. After the death of Venezuela's president Hugo Chavez who was the main motivator for vast changes in the region, the blocs are becoming quite dysfunctional.131 Brazil also expresses such concerns and plans to focus in global forums. Apart from that there is a BRICS formation, composed of large and potential economies from different regions. Actually, it emphasizes global economic governance and coordination of global affairs. The main task is to reform the IMF.132 Projecting the second term of Brazil president Dilma's Rousseff, it is likely that BRICS will remain a "strategic forum in which Brazil can definitely gain a steady voice in the world order".133 But because of different political weight and security positions among members, this economic bloc itself has little capabilities to become more than economic alliance. Independent Task Force provides several recommendations for US foreign policy in order to reach positive outcomes from relationship with Brazil. Firstly, countries should maintain regular communication (official contacts in all levels). Second proposal is to reorganize National Security Agency by creating a separate department specifically designed for functional issues with Brazil. Also quite rational is a suggestion to expand trade policy, mainly with China. It does competitive actions and there are concerns about China's currency (monetary) challenges. It is possible to view this as a geopolitical game - the US should engage in close relationship with biggest players in Latin America, especially Brazil in order to counterbalance China's competition and possible threats to US security. Another field where US should show support for Brazil is initiative to provide a

130 Barack Obama: "Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress on the State of the Union," January 25, 2011. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project. Found: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=88928; seen: 2015-02-22 131 Alba alliance ambitions lay bare Latin trade confusion, BBC (August 1, 2013). Found: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23515979; seen: 2015-02-22 132 Christensen, S. F. Brazil's Foreign Policy Priorities, 2013, Third World Quarterly, vol. 34, no. 2, pp. 280. Found: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/01436597.2013.775785; seen: 2015-02-22 133 Meacham, C. and Kalout, H. Brazil‟s Presidential Elections: Expectations for Foreign Policy, A Report of the CSIS Americas Program, 2014. P. 13. Found: http://csis.org/files/publication/141001_Meacham_BrazilPresElections_Web.pdf; seen: 2015-02-22

62 permanent UN Security Council seat.134 Brazil is aspiring for it, and to some extent such claims are legitimate as the present composition is relatively outdated (since World War II). However, it is hard to foresee these institutional changes in the near future. One interesting and promising tendency is seen that relations between the US and Brazil are better not in official level, but in private sector and social contacts. Civil society and cultural links are important and helps to create a positive nature for cooperation in various fields, for instance between trade unions and organizations. Unfortunately, in 2013 information was revealed about NSA spying activities and it was destructive. This scandal can be evaluated as a proof of pragmatic US actions following principles of realism. Mutual confidence has to be restored.

Economic cooperation

Analyzing the general framework of the US-Brazil economic cooperation, the legal basis and an overview of treaties should be taken into account. The US proposed economic policy model is viewed in Brazil as a form of realism or annexation.135 Independent Task Force experts pinpoint to the absence of a bilateral tax treaty (BTT) as the main obstacle for more fruitful relations. It is quite odd situation in the context of other US trade partners, which has greater than $1 trillion GDP.136 Together with a missing free trade agreement (FTA) it creates unwanted barriers. Others believe that achievements in economic cooperation are satisfactory anyway. The two sides have disagreements over regulatory issues and mutual trade concept, but business leaders introduce bilateral strategic cooperation agreements in targeted areas. One of them is US-Brazil CEO Forum to improve business relationship. Another initiative is Bilateral Economic Partnership Agreement (BEPA) which might work as a model instead of FTA. It should be mentioned that US trade strategy at the moment includes and focuses on mega-agreements.137 Therefore, the exclusion of Brazil virtually would mean a failure and continuation of incremental trade. But situation is quite the opposite as both countries cooperate. For instance, in 2011 Agreement on Trade and Economic Cooperation (ATEC) for trade and investment was signed which provides significant opportunities. In 2007 Tax Information Exchange Agreement (TIEA) was reached to move towards BTT. There are some government-to-government dialogues, but it is

134 Global Brazil and U.S.-Brazil Relations, Independent Task Force Report No. 66, Council on Foreign Relations, 2011. P. 4-6; 75. Found: http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Brazil_TFR66.pdf; seen: 2015-02-23 135 Brazil and the United States: Trade Agendas and Challenges of the Bilateral Relationship, Brazil Institute Special Report, 2008. P. 6; 7. Found: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/brazil.us.tradereport.pdf; seen: 2015-02-23 136 Global Brazil and U.S.-Brazil Relations, Independent Task Force Report No. 66, Council on Foreign Relations, 2011. P. 68. Found: http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Brazil_TFR66.pdf; seen: 2015-02-25 137 Hornbeck, J. F. US-Latin America Trade and Investment in the 21st Century: What‟s Next for Deepening Integration? Inter-American Dialogue Working Paper, 2014. P. 17-18. Found: http://www10.iadb.org/intal/intalcdi/PE/2014/13718.pdf; seen: 2015-02-25

63 worth to note that in National Export Initiative (NEI) Brazil is set as a priority market.138 Additional agreements to expand air services (Memorandum of Consultations) or to cooperate in security and safety fields (Memorandum of Understanding) obviously strengthen US-Brazil economic ties.139 The recently reached agreements already give benefits. The White House officially claims that it contributes to two-way goods and services trade which in 2013 exceeded $100 billion. Moreover, positive numbers - around $80 billion were recorded in 2012 of US FDI flows in Brazil.140 However, a tendency can be noticed that Brazil invests several times less. In fact, the US- Brazil economic relations at the moment are marked by some trends. First of all, generally trade decreased or at least loses positions, because China has become the main trade partner for Brazil downgrading historically strong positions of the US. The main products that both countries trade with are similar. According to the data in 2010, Brazil export petroleum, iron ore, coffee and automobile tires, while the US exports diesel, coal, engine parts and airline components. At the moment, one can notice that namely business companies of both countries try to reach markets. For example, Brazil companies Gerdau and Banco do Brasil due to economic crisis situation managed to engage in the US market. Certainly, it is harder for Brazil companies to compete with well- established local US businesses, because of various restrictions. On the US side, there are many subsidiaries working in Brazil.141 Basically they are related to food, cars, and technologies industry. A report presented by Congressional Research Service this year provides information that despite various tensions over trade rules, tariffs and not fully prepared legal basis, the US-Brazil trade has grown considerably. Actually, as Figure 2 show (see Annex No. 7) in 2004-2013 period trade increased by 105% ($71.7 billion in total). Also, it can be seen that US export is way bigger than import from Brazil. In general, Brazil is just ninth trade partner for the US. Though, the most notable growth is seen in services rather than trade. Between period of 2004-2012 it increased by 356% (in 2012 comprised $30.7 billion).142 As it was mentioned before, the US-Brazil has cotton dispute and currently there is a shift towards its settlement.

138 Brazil-U.S. Economic and Commercial Relations, Brazil-U.S. Business Council, 2013. P. 1; 2. Found: http://www.brazilcouncil.org/sites/default/files/1%20Brazil%20U.S.pdf; seen: 2015-02-25 139 Strengthening the U.S.-Brazil Economic Relationship, the White House Office of the Press Secretary (March 19, 2011). Found: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/uploads/Strengthening_the_US- Brazil_Economic_Relationship.pdf; seen: 2015-02-25 140 FACT SHEET: The U.S.-Brazil Bilateral Relationship, The White House Office of the Vice President (June 17, 2014). Found: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/06/17/fact-sheet-us-brazil-bilateral-relationship; seen: 2015-02-25 141 The US companies that successfully run business in Brazil - General Motors $11.3 bln; Wal-Mart $8.6 bln; Ford $8.4 bln; Cargill $8.4 bln; AES $7.4 bln; Whirlpool $3.8 bln; Bunge $3.3 bln; Kraft Foods $2.7 bln; IBM $2.6 bln; Sprint Nextel $2.4 bln. Information found: Winter, B. Factbox: U.S.-Brazil relations and business ties, Reuters (March 15, 2011). Found: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/15/us-brazil-obama-ties-idUSTRE72E5SI20110315; seen: 2015-02-25 142 Meyer, P. J. Brazil: Political and Economic Situation and U.S. Relations, CRS Report, 2014. P. 13; 14. Found: http://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33456.pdf; seen: 2015-02-25

64 Apart from trade where the US is seen as a partner with which free trade agreement can be potentially signed, there are some other significant areas on which the whole relationship rests. One of them is energy. As Brazil has capabilities and resources to become important oil producer in the coming years, the US has an interest to import oil from a partially close country. Especially shale gas sector is perspective. Another field is competitiveness, innovation and technology. This is where Brazil lags behind and US could offer its advices, technologies. The third field for mutual cooperation could be environment. Brazil is a very good example of renewable energy resources. The US and Brazil could act globally to raise environmental concerns.143 In practice, these areas of cooperation are currently being developed and take an important place in agenda. For instance, both countries are working to preserve Amazon forest from cutting. The US should take more responsibility in environment issues through multilateral post-Kyoto climate change initiatives. Biofuel and alternative resources are very important. The US seeks hemispheric energy security and should cooperate with Brazil in oil and gas markets.144 Regional energy integration is not sufficient, so this area should be elevated more. As mentioned, energy is an important part in economic cooperation. To maintain these ties both countries share national resources in trade. Biofuel is one of such fields. In 2007 the US and Brazil signed a memorandum to promote greater cooperation on ethanol by sharing technology, providing assistance in biofuel industries and ensuring multilateral efforts of global biofuels development. Having large oil reserves countries expanded oil trade considerably. It is apparent in the Figure No. 3 (see Annex No. 8) that after steady growth of oil import from Brazil in the recent years it declined. But important shift was registered as US crude products exports to Brazil exceeded imports and experts claim this tendency will continue in the coming years.145 In overall, the trade perspectives are not used to the full and there is a room for better economic cooperation. For Brazil, the US is a partner that it prefers and needs, mainly because of particular goods that US can offer. Also, it provides transparent practices and focuses on innovation and intellectual property - a field which can Brazil help to move to leading economies. Notably, although China has become main economic partner for Brazil, eventually the side effects of this relationship are seen.146 Therefore, the economic US-Brazil partnership remains of special importance in the future.

143 Meacham, C. and Kalout, H. Brazil‟s Presidential Elections: Expectations for Foreign Policy, A Report of the CSIS Americas Program, 2014. P. 15-17. Found: http://csis.org/files/publication/141001_Meacham_BrazilPresElections_Web.pdf; seen: 2015-03-11 144 The United States and Brazil: Two perspectives on dealing with partnership and rivalry, Center for American Progress Report, 2009. P. 8-9. Found: http://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp- content/uploads/issues/2009/03/pdf/brazil.pdf; seen: 2015-03-11 145 Ibid., P. 16-18 146 Politics put to one side in sign of closer ties between Brazil and the US, Financial Times (May 16, 2013). Found: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9f9d81c6-b883-11e2-869f-00144feabdc0.html; seen: 2015-03-11

65 Military and security issues

Security is one of the most important fields of cooperation between the US and Brazil, including such specific areas as counternarcotics, counterterrorism, defense. Brazil is mainly drugs consuming, not producing country and to combat that in 2008 the US and Brazil has signed a memorandum of understanding which created special investigation units. Of special concern is a Tri-Border Area (TBA) shared with Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay which is known for illegal actions and fear of spread of terrorism is obvious. There are no groups acting at the moment, but illegal goods are diverted for terrorist purposes. Due to that, various initiatives are offered to strengthen preparation in this matter. At the moment, both countries more intensively cooperate in defense and military issues. In 2010 a Defense Cooperation Agreement has been signed and now countries share not only technology, research data, but engage in defense procurement. Arms deals are mainly related to air force.147 It is possible to say that these developments have regional and global consequences. Looking to broader context and implications, the US has many challenges in other regions. Therefore, hemispheric security means global security and should be a vital part of foreign policy. Given that China and other players like Iran are engaging into regional matters more actively shows a lack of US actions to prevent it. But it is neither US, nor Brazil's interest to see a reprise of regional arms race. Accordingly, the US and Brazil should agree on the need for better communication. One case is the US decision to reinstate the Fourth Fleet in the South Atlantic Ocean without prior consultations.148 Nuclear security has been an issue, but it is solved, although Brazil has strong relations with countries that are controversial in this matter (Iran). The main problem typical for this relationship is that no comprehensive mechanism exists to coordinate US policy towards Brazil and region itself. Despite that, as Joseph S. Tulchin claims that mutual "confidence in dealing with drug trafficking, terrorism, and international crime has reached historic levels."149 It is a positive result of US foreign policy in Latin America. Although US never relied on any strategic partner, relations with Brazil are seen as the only option.

The US-Brazil event data set on important issues

147 Meyer, P. J. Brazil: Political and Economic Situation and U.S. Relations, United States Congressional Research Service, 2014. P. 20-22. Found: http://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33456.pdf; seen: 2015-03-11 148 The United States and Brazil: Two perspectives on dealing with partnership and rivalry, Center for American Progress Report, 2009. P. 7-8. Found: http://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp- content/uploads/issues/2009/03/pdf/brazil.pdf; seen: 2015-03-11 149 Tulchin, J. S. United States Policy and Security Interests in Latin America, Freidrich Ebert Stiftung, 2010. P. 5. Found: http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/la-seguridad/07424.pdf; seen: 2015-04-15

66 In order to have a clear and reasoned image about the US role and actions in Latin America region, it is important to analyze the official information about the recent events that have been on bilateral US-Brazil agenda during year 2009-2014 period. Current year was not included, because the events are ongoing and general tendencies could be seen from period spanning six years. It was decided to analyze official record of events, not information published in the media. The official website of the U.S. State Department provides releases pertaining Brazil. Therefore, it is a good source for observing the main trends and topics that are raised. It should be noted that the events cover various issues in bilateral, regional and global formats. The very analysis was conducted by reading information about all the events that happened in 2009-2014 period, but only the most important ones were selected to review the situation (see Annex No. 9). Basically, the focus of this part of work is to find information about visits and meetings, agreement and initiatives, issues and problems and relations itself. There is a common tendency that mainly security and defense issues were highlighted in the first phase of bilateral relations between the US Brazil. This shows that US maintained its priority to keep control over Latin America by security means. Nevertheless, the context of cooperation and working areas gradually expanded and focus on economic growth, trade could be noticed in the middle of two B. Obama's terms in office. In the recent years different initiatives cover more specific areas. These gradual changes in bilateral relations context mean that there is a shift in US policy toward this region by combining different instruments, adapting to new global political, economic context and applying this to bilateral format. Also it is essential to mention that the US is interested in supporting its ideas, initiatives for regional and global actions in various fields. Especially this is seen in intention to gain support for international peacekeeping missions, reaching consent over important issues (global security, cybercrimes, environmental policy, preventing economic crises and improving trade conditions). On the other hand, in some parts it can be seen that the US does not do enough in order to maintain its influence and secure interests, although at least publicly it declares ambitious goals. More focus and attention is needed to this particular region. In the following part, a case of US cooperation with Brazil is analyzed. US-Brazil relations can be defined by different and distinct features - both cooperation on broad agenda and having many disagreements. In 2009 on 187th anniversary of independence the US being the first country to recognize it, highlighted closeness and called partnership 'durable and dynamic'. Importantly, the US admits Brazilian regional and global leadership.150 B. Obama in a meeting with L. Lula emphasized namely this kind of partnership in three dimensions. Both countries fight against challenges, focus on energy, social inclusion, peace and development. One of

150 Brazilian Independence Day (09/06/09), Releases Pertaining Brazil. The official website of the U.S. State Department. Found: http://www.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2009a/09/128678.htm; seen: 2015-04-15

67 the most important principles of the Inter-American system are a full diplomatic dialogue, equality and mutual respect.151 Later in 2013 J. Kerry in a meeting with Brazilian Foreign Minister claimed that the significance of relationship between US and Brazil is growing, the US seeks to improve cooperation in areas of law enforcement, food security, science and etc.152 Regarding the NSA scandal, transparency and accountability were promised by J. Kerry who maintained idea that the US has to provide security and prevent serious attacks. The two partners have various disagreements. Despite that, both countries share dynamic partnership in areas of economy, human rights, environment, peace and security, democracy. Furthermore, the US has interest in the OAS and invites Brazil to engage more actively.153 In 2014 one of the major events was the reelection of Brazilian president D. Rouseff. The US greeted and J. Kerry said meaningful words that "It's a strategic relationship bigger than any differences".154 He attempted several times to encourage advancement of the relationship by talking about common interests like peace and security in Haiti or Ebola, increasing various exchanges, economics and trade and etc.155 That year there were efforts to discuss business, civil society cooperation and regional challenges. Generally, the US has quite pragmatic interests regarding relationship with Brazil - to use its huge potential in regional leadership, mutually solving global problems. In 2011 there was a Washington Conference on the Americas which was important, because US position towards Latin America could be seen. The US claims that this particular region is vital to its interests (a major development in foreign policy), especially in the 21st century. The partnership means not only geographical proximity, but also mutual economic interests, values, culture and challenges.156 A clear example of attempts to foster all-round relations is bilateral US-Brazil agenda and adopted agreements. In 2009 both countries reached Joint Action plan on racial and ethnic equality. Year 2010 marked new stage of relations due to the presidency of D. Rouseff. An agreement on defense cooperation was reached which includes sharing experience and technologies. That year H. Clinton met with Brazilian Foreign minister. Cooperation for advancement of women role was proposed to promote full participation of women in the society. Another initiative was a cooperation on climate

151 Preview of President Barack Obama's Meeting With Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (03/13/09), Releases Pertaining Brazil. The official website of the U.S. State Department. Found: http://www.state.gov/p/wha/rls/rm/2009/120337.htm; seen: 2015-04-16 152 Remarks With Foreign Minister of Brazil Antonio de Aguiar Patriota Before Their Meeting (05/20/13), Releases Pertaining Brazil. The official website of the U.S. State Department. Found: http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2013/05/209664.htm; seen: 2015-04-16 153 Remarks With Brazilian Foreign Minister Antonio de Aguiar Patriota After Their Meeting (08/13/13), Releases Pertaining Brazil. The official website of the U.S. State Department. Found: http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2013/08/213105.htm; seen: 2015-04-16 154 Elections in Brazil (10/27/14), Releases Pertaining Brazil. The official website of the U.S. State Department. Found: http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2014/10/233396.htm; seen: 2015-04-16 155 Ibid. 156 Remarks at the 41st Washington Conference on the Americas (05/11/11), Releases Pertaining Brazil. The official website of the U.S. State Department. Found: http://www.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2011/05/163025.htm; seen: 2015-04-16

68 change to take care about global climate and clean energy. Finally, a trilateral development cooperation as a broader initiative to provide development assistance and to maximize resources to fight poverty. In 2011 a new interesting initiative was raised - Open Government Partnership, which is multilateral and aims to secure commitments for transparency, empower citizens, fight corruption and etc. One promising tendency have been observed that the issuance of US visas, mainly in China and Brazil grew considerably (by 17 percent in total). A goal was set to expand capacity up to 2,2 million in China and 1,8 million in Brazil by 2013. Meanwhile 2012 were exceptional in terms of intensity of relations accompanied by various visits. Also notable is the fact that the capacity and conditions of diplomatic and consular service have been extended, the cooperation is developing and encompass more fields. In addition, there were many initiatives announced and special importance given to solve global issues. Brazil-US Global Partnership Dialogue (GDP) is an initiative on which bilateral relations will rely. Also Partnership for the 21st century conference gave motivation for more thorough cooperation. Numerous documents have been adopted on cooperation in Education Partnership for the 21st Century, Cooperation for Social Inclusion, Health Cooperation, Space Cooperation, Trilateral Cooperation. As a specific event is that a pilot program "Jobs Diplomacy" was launched to promote America's economic renewal and in this regard visa regime has been facilitated (in surge, waiting time and new consulates). Worth noting is that in 2013 president Obama started an initiative "100,000 Strong in the Americas". It was influenced by large Hispanic population in the US, huge potential market (over a billion people). Moreover, it is expected that until 2060 population in the Americas will exceed China's and will have close trade, cultural, family ties (more than any other region). Therefore, this initiative seeks to enlarge the number of students in both continents (around 100,000 each) by 2020.157 This future planning is very important and to some extent shows a change comparing to prior policy (which has been more of a reactive nature). A different program Fullbright NEXUS was initiated in order to create strategies for improvement of life quality in changing climate conditions. Having analyzed US-Brazil bilateral agenda, it is essential to make some generalizations about the relationship.

A review of bilateral US-Brazil relations and regional trends

Brazil is significant for the US general policy on this region and also for pursuing its interests in various fields. It is needless to say that there are some peculiar features in US-Brazil relationship.

157 100,000 Strong in the Americas (09/13/13), Releases Pertaining Brazil. The official website of the U.S. State Department. Found: http://www.state.gov/p/wha/rls/fs/2013/214201.htm; seen: 2015-04-18

69 Nevertheless, it is worth to take a broader look at this partnership. A comparison of the Brazilian case with two other Latin American countries - Mexico and Colombia is made while analyzing the intensity of relations. This was done by following an official record of the events on important issues in bilateral agenda in the same period (2009-2014). These are the top three trading partners for the US, thus, need a special attention. As the numbers in Table No. 3 show, certainly the relations between the US and Mexico are developed mostly. Regarding Brazil, the number of events is quite considerable, but given the fact that Brazil is a regional power and its potential strategic importance is bigger than any other country in Latin America, then this intensity of relations is not satisfactory and needs more US focus. Whereas with Colombia the track of events probably indicate the most corresponding situation to possibilities and features of relations. Two facts are worth noting that 2012 were exceptional in terms of number of events between US and Brazil (62), a total record among all three countries during 2009-2014 period. At the same time in 2013 Colombia performed well outpacing other countries in contacts with the US.

Table No. 4. Intensity of relations (bilateral events per year). US-Colombia US-Brazil US-Mexico 2009 11 16 28 2010 10 17 29 2011 15 16 33 2012 30 62 34 2013 21 13 18 2014 15 9 26 In total 102 133 168 Source: Releases pertaining Colombia, Brazil and Mexico. The official website of the U.S. State Department. Found: http://www.state.gov

Colombia faces a conflict and its consequences are various socioeconomic problems and security issues within the society. The US and Colombia has a strategic partnership and Colombia can be treated as the main US ally in the region. Bilateral agenda is leaning more to trade facilitation (from security field). What makes this partnership special is also the fact that both Colombia and the US faces Atlantic and the Pacific. Generally, the interests or scope of cooperation is more narrow comparing to other countries, but it is reciprocal rather than only pragmatic. It is worth to note that according to the realistic expectations for the US policy, Latin American states see their interests rather different and try to avoid violation of sovereignty. A good example of such tendency is the case of Brazil. It aligned with BRICS bloc and for its divergence as

70 some authors state, there are two implications for the US. For a wide hemispheric agenda that US fosters there should be a compliance with the foreign policy of Brazil, which at the moment is missing. Furthermore, Brazil should be treated not just as a big country in Latin America, but as another rising power shaping the international order.158 As mentioned it is a regional leader and its importance in global arena is increasing. Therefore, the US necessarily has to seek close ties with Brazil in order to secure its interests and maintain influence in Latin America. So far the two countries had disagreements over trade and security issues, but recently there are attempts to move forward in different areas and create a far-reaching agenda. The relations are projected into future where perspectives are quite good, but failures in foreign policy are possible. Nevertheless, the most intensive and obvious relationship not only from these three states, but in Latin America as well is established with Mexico. Mainly border issues, migration and illegal drugs create challenges for both neighboring countries. The relations are very close, practical and interrelated due to historical, geographic reasons. Although objectively possible strong partnership with Brazil (as a leader of region) would be more important in the longer perspective, however, it is a concurrent part of US foreign policy, because Mexico belongs to North America (the only state belonging to this continent and format). Despite that, for the US relations with Brazil are crucial for the future, as its power is rising and Brazil participates in blocs that pursue a multipolar world vision (for ex. BRICS). The US cooperation with Latin America is determined by close geography, trade and investment ties, demographic links and shared values. Researchers of the Heritage Foundation named out several important processes or issues that have to be taken more seriously in the US policy. A way to increase trade includes trade liberalization process by seeking long-term economic recovery, growth and prosperity. The US should use less stringent policies. The second question is harmonizing relations and approach toward Brazil. Apart from this, a significant impact for the success (especially in security field) of US in Latin America would be strengthening relations with its neighbor Mexico. Help for the poorest countries like Haiti should be a continued priority as well. Despite that a welcome outcome for regional peace and favorable environment for US interests is dealing with post-Chavez regime in Venezuela and ensuring liberty in Cuba. Lastly, in the longer perspective the US has to create a new coalition mechanism in Latin America (replacing the Summit of the Americas) to reach consent on its ideas about how to deal with various issues (such as trade, drugs, energy and security).159 These processes are still ongoing and require many efforts.

158 Better Than You Think: Reframing Inter-American Relations, Brookings Policy Brief (March, 2015). P. 16. Found: http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2015/03/inter-american-relations-feinberg-miller- trinkunas/better-than-you-think--reframing-interamerican-relations.pdf; seen: 2015-04-18 159 Roberts, J. M. and Walser, R. Latin America and the Caribbean: A Wish List for 2013. Issue Brief #3817 on Latin America (January 7, 2013), The Heritage Foundation. Found: http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/01/us- foreign-policy-wish-list-for-latin-america-and-the-caribbean-in-2013; seen: 2015-04-18

71 In a study conducted by Hunton & Williams, different economic, legal and political trends of Latin America in 2014 are presented. In economic field, the US companies notice some risk factors such as business and currency regulations in Venezuela; exchange, import authorizations or pricing controls (especially in Venezuela and Argentina); high levels of currency, compliance and economic risk (especially in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico) and violence and crime in Mexico. Moreover, there are difficulties with regulatory requirements meeting anti-corruption laws. Despite that the US pursues demands for compliance with standards and removing corrupt practices. This is done by enforcing corresponding acts and rules (liabilities for corporations and individuals). It can be said that for example Colombia still remain a very corrupt state (94th in 2013 according to International Corruption Perception Index).160 Despite that, worth noting is that ideological divide and regional violence in Latin America diminishes the US abilities to improve its political influence. There are two implications of US energy production that it becomes more self- sufficiency and less reliant on the effects posed by region. Also, cheaper energy will likely boost its manufacturing capabilities and this means more opportunities for production sharing with Latin America in the future.161 These trends are important and will shape regional cooperation in the coming years. Also worth mentioning are two important factors that might have serious implications for the US foreign policy. That is, a considerably growing number of Latino population in the US. This phenomenon inevitably needs attention and will lead to closer ties with Latin America as such. It is observed that Hispanic and non-Hispanic respondents support strong US leadership (including its military superiority), a dialogue with Cuba. Also both sides share views on threats like terrorism, cyber-attacks and nuclear weapons. One of the priorities should be creating jobs. Basically these features mean favoring a multidimensional approach. However, as report discloses Latinos have different position on immigration (softer attitude), climate change, hunger (are more concerned) and about the UN (view it more positively).162 Another aspect of tendency is that the US sees China as a public enemy. According to Gallup poll in 2015, 12 percent of respondents named China as a rival, placing it in third place after Russia (due to events in Ukraine) and North Korea. Importantly, in 2014 China was treated as the main competitor, because of its growing economy and influence in the world affairs. This year the US recovered while China‟s economic potential slowed down,

160 Latin America 2014: Economic, legal and political trends, Hunton & Williams. P. 2; 6. Found: http://www.hunton.com/files/Publication/3c311f96-3546-450c-97ba- 5e8709cdb827/Presentation/PublicationAttachment/78dc412f-9f8f-4d4d-828e- 68bbf2f72bea/2014_LatAm_Economic_Trend_Report.pdf; seen: 2015-04-18 161 Ibid., P. 4; 5; 6 162 Irgil, E. Latinos‟ Views on U.S. Foreign Policy, Inter-American Dialogue, Feb 24, 2015. Found: http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3739&s; seen: 2015-04-20

72 making it less threatening.163 Nevertheless, China‟s factor in US foreign policy toward different regions is very important. Generally, the US policy and bilateral context of relations with Brazil in fact reflect the pursuit of its interests in Latin America. The policy is not consistent, has some deviations, but efforts can be seen in financing and supporting various initiatives. Recently the nature of relations include more new topics and issues, as the global political, social and economic situation changes and creates new challenges. In particular, it can be noticed that the US applies slightly different models of cooperation with abovementioned three states, but this is understandable because of different features and conditions. Despite that, regional or global level is maintained. The US interests and areas of cooperation with Latin America traditionally involve political, social and economic aspects. The spread of democratic values, political nature and emphasizing fight against different security threats, focusing on socioeconomic problems and trade promotion is a priority. Moreover, the US takes interest in energy, protection of environment and many specific areas (like tourism, technology, education and etc.). This is accompanied by generating new ideas for better cooperation. However, in official record provided from the US perspective some kind of overestimation of the results and achievements in bilateral agenda with Brazil can be noticed. It is important to note that the focus on China's engagement in Latin America is not addressed sufficiently. At least in political level, little is made to make impact for such tendencies. Private business sector facing daily a competition from other actors (especially China) takes respective actions to prevent that, but in public there is some lack of attention to the growing China's activities in Latin America. In the last section, more focus is given to the growth of China's influence and pursuit of interests in Latin America, area of historical US dominance.

4.2. China's activities in Latin America and in relations with Brazil

In the recent decade China has enjoyed a considerable economic growth which automatically strengthened its positions in international arena, expanding its role not only locally or regionally, but also globally. It is even expected to overtake the US economy in the coming years. This change presupposes corresponding consequences for special relationship of the US, Brazil and China. Antônio Carlos Lessa and Henrique Altemani de Oliveira claims that the rise of China has some features. First of all, this country gained more weight and power and it becomes more assertive in its actions. Secondly, the very actions of US are changing in nature. It now uses policy of

163 Francis, D. Meet America‟s New Public Enemy No. 1, Foreign Policy (Feb 27, 2015). Found: http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/27/meet-americas-new-public-enemy-no- 1/?utm_content=buffer1768a&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer; seen: 2015- 04-10

73 engagement and expansion, engaging new important players into common responsibility of world matters mechanism (a need to share burden) rather than relying on containment. Authors also notice some uncertainty of US policy makers how to treat China - as a competitor and threat (for strategic and economic security) or not. Finally, the relationship and balance of power between China and US is changing - US influence is declining while China's increases. Moreover, in total there are more powers rising, including Brazil, India.164 And because of these factors the US-China relationship becomes more interdependent and stable, requiring a need to cooperate. One can observe the growing China's involvement in Latin America (a kind of counterbalance to the US). The reasons for this lie in China's goal to have access to natural resources and commodities. Also, China is prone to reach an agreement to its "one China" policy (non-recognition of Taiwan and other territories). In addition, it seeks to gain support in multilateral forums and institutions. And finally, China is interested in trade relations with Latin America - Chinese goods are potentially in demand.165 Another important factor that should be noted is the declining US strategic influence in the region. It is a natural consequence of US policy implementation or a pragmatic stance taken by Latin American countries. This might have a direct impact on US foreign policy in Latin America. It is important to understand that China looks attractive for Latin American countries due to the fact that, unlike the US, it does not apply high standards for relations such as restrictions and conditions to ensure democracy or market economy. This simply corresponds to the region's capabilities and expectations. In addition, China can provide financial support. Therefore, some countries, especially Brazil tends to closely cooperate (China has become the key commercial partner). But it can be noted that it has side effects to Brazil. Its manufacturing sector is affected by goods specialization and certain geopolitical variation has taken place - Brazil retreats from its hegemonic ambitions in the region.166 Some experts even predict that Latin America will be divided into two spheres of influence - northern part closer to the US and the southern under Chinese care.167 It is worth noting that Chinese commercial ties with individual less developed countries are not dangerous, but its penetration into the military and political areas poses a threat to the US. China's economic cooperation with Latin America has been growing greatly. For instance, trade in 1999 was approximately $8 billion and in 2010 reached $180 billion (increased 22 times).

164 The Rise of China – a special issue of the Revista Brasileira de Politíca Internacional. SciELO in Perspective, 2014. Found: http://blog.scielo.org/en/2014/11/26/the-rise-of-china-a-special-issue-of-the-revista-brasileira-de-politica- internacional/; seen: 2015-04-10 165 Vadell, A. J. The North of the South: The Geopolitical Implications of “Pacific Consensus” in South America and the Brazilian Dilemma, Latin American Policy, Vol. 4 Issue 1., 2013. P. 39-40. Found: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/lamp.12004/pdf; seen: 2014-06-20 166 Ibid. P. 51; 53. 167 De Santibañes, F. An End to U.S. Hegemony? The Strategic Implications of China's Growing Presence in Latin America, Comparative Strategy, 28:1, 2009. P. 33. Found: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/01495930802679728; seen: 2014-07-17

74 In is worth to note one unique characteristic that China for Latin American countries in trade relations is a buyer, seller and competitor at the same time. Although most of its investments are targeted to natural resources companies, but the form of investments widely vary. It ranges from greenfield projects - purchase of exploration and product concessions to taking minority or control equity positions. And investors themselves are different from state-owned or private companies. Basically, the driving motives for economic cooperation are the resource security for China, as well as the possibility to sidestep trade barriers. Moreover, China seeks to diversify its global trade and ensure portfolio investment. But making business, because Latin America is a large market and achieving diplomatic support is also very important.168 In sum, China has big ambitions in the region. China has strong trade relations with most of Latin America countries. In this respect it is only comparable to the US which still keeps dominance in trade. In the period 2000-2012 China's total exports to this region shifted from 2.9 to 6.6 percent. It should be noted that China mainly exports manufactured goods which in turn is one of the reasons why Latin American countries have a trade deficit in some cases. In terms of import, the change is similar - from 2.4 to 6.9 percent. It reflects the growing Chinese demand and Inter-American Dialogue notices that China, unlike the US, imports large amount of agricultural goods (especially soy and corn).169 The future projection of trade is ambitious and long-term as China plans to double its trade volume in the coming decade. Notably, China's banks increased investments by 71 percent last year. It is worth to mention that for example FDI by the US fell by nearly 20 percent since 2011 and this shows a relatively low priority on region.170 At the moment it is interesting to observe changing tendencies in trade, development. Despite Cuban issue which is treated as some kind of future guarantee of stability in Latin America, experts notice a vacuum in the US policy regarding this region. This is why China stepped in to look for various gains. Some of its activities could be seen in examples of China's help for Argentina to build nuclear power plant, to launch first satellite for Bolivia or even is said to contribute to Venezuelan drone program.171 Generally, China takes interest in economic, strategic and political fields. It is worth to mention that statistics in China-Latin America Finance Database show that since 2005 China provided around 119 billion of USD loans to Latin American countries and firms. Notably, in 2010 China's loans surpassed those by the World bank, Inter-American

168 Mellor, T. Partner and Sogol, B. China‟s Investment in Latin America: Themes, Challenges and Future Trends, Global Infrastructure, 2012. P. 60-64. Found: http://www.bingham.com/Publications/Files/2012/01/Chinas- Investments-in-Latin-America-Themes-Challenges-and-Future-Trends; seen: 2015-04-13 169 Hornbeck, J. F. US-Latin America Trade and Investment in the 21st Century: What‟s Next for Deepening Integration? Inter-American Dialogue Working Paper, 2014. P. 13. Found: http://www10.iadb.org/intal/intalcdi/PE/2014/13718.pdf; seen: 2015-04-13 170 Gillespie, P. China's big chess move against the U.S.: Latin America, CNN Money (March 4, 2015). Found: http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/04/news/economy/china-latin-america-relations-united-states/; seen: 2015-04-13 171 Ibid.

75 Development Bank and US Export-Import Bank combined. Meanwhile in 2014 Brazil received 22 billion, Mexico - 2,4 billion and Colombia 75 million of loans.172 This show for which countries it gives priority and a general trend of significant financial contributions by loans. A "second wave" of China's investments and trade can be already noticed as political, economic and social situation has changed. Traditionally China's activities were motivated by its domestic consumption needs. Now there is a gradual shift in China's economic model and political and economic issues overlap. Given the fragile context. It is expected that this stage of China's engagement will make a smaller impact on macroeconomics, also will contribute less to "deindustrialization" in Latin America. In political sphere, its goals are still not fully clear but China's engagement might work as an alternative to widespread populism in this region.173 Basically, China's activities can be seen in bilateral relations with most of Latin American countries. With some of them it is more intensive and increasing cooperation, with other states relations are not developing that much. Brazil is probably the most visible example of China's influence in Latin America which poses concerns for the US. In the latest meeting of two leaders of these countries, ties in transportation, energy and trade fields (especially mining and agricultural sectors) were strengthened. Also, Two-Ocean Railway project was discussed.174 In general, China pursues its goals in developing countries by using similar strategy which has direct and indirect aspects (see Annex No. 10). Rhys Jenkins marks that in short term Brazil benefitted from high prices of commodities, but there are long term consequences as the loss of export markets to China. Particularly this is seen in manufactures and has clearly negative aspects on Brazil.175 But this is not the only feature of economic cooperation between these two countries. Actually, both China and Brazil enjoys bilateral trade and has benefits from large flows. For instance, in 2011 overall trade with China reached $77.1 billion and investments from China were $17 billion.176 The trading products reflect the same tendency as in regional trade with China - Brazil exports basic goods and raw materials, while imports from China were capital or manufactured goods. However, this relationship ipso facto is ambiguous problems and has side effects. First of them is asymmetrical trade which creates threat. Namely, China leads the economy

172 China-Latin America Finance Database, Inter-American Dialogue. Found: http://www.thedialogue.org/map_list; seen: 2015-04-13 173 Veiga, P. China's "Second Wave" in South America, Issue Brief (02.09.15), Baker Institute for Public Policy. P. 2; 3; 4. Found: http://bakerinstitute.org/files/8777/; seen: 2015-04-20 174 Hakim, P. and Myers, M. China and Latin America in 2014: Deepening Relations, China Policy Review, January 12, 2015. Found: http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3719; seen: 2015-04-20 175 Jenkins, R. (2012), China and Brazil: Economic Impacts of a Growing Relationship, Journal of Current Chinese Affairs, 41, 1. P. 24. Found: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/40406/1/jcca_2012_01_Jenkins_Brazil_A5.pdf; seen: 2015-04- 20 176 Sweig, J. E. and Herrero, D. Brazil As an Emerging Global Power: Implications for US-Brazil Relations, The Aspen Institute, 2012. P. 5. Found: http://www.aspeninstitute.org/sites/default/files/content/docs/congressional/Sweig%20Essay_0.pdf; seen: 2015-04-20

76 of Brazil to deindustrialization - its demand and trade rates undermine Brazil's industrial capacity and potential. In 2009, this sector share of Brazil's GDP fell to 15.5 percent (lowest numbers since 1947).177 Moreover, there are some strategic hurdles that this relationship offers. One of the problems is currency manipulation and China's undervalued yuan. This sometimes is even called a "currency war" having effects not only for Brazil, but for the US as well.178 Therefore, economic relations between Brazil and China turn into competition. The US and Brazil both experience unfair economic practices by China. Analyzing the state of relations between China and other countries of the region, it should be mentioned that cooperation is not always win-win situation. This is mainly because China takes interest in exporting manufactured goods and this undermines industrial capabilities of Latin American countries. Also even though foreign direct investments by China seem large, but in reality in many cases it works as offshore tax havens. Mexico is important case, because it trades with the US significantly and China became the main destination for the US export in 2003. Therefore, there are two negative effects for Mexico of China's presence in Latin America - close ties with the US economy and overlap between Chinese and Mexican exports. An open competition is mark in more than half of main exporting sectors.179 Although two states try to deepen cooperation, some disagreements remain. For example, in 2014 to halt an agreement of China-Mexico rail deal (worth 3,75 billion USD) which could have been the first such type investment of infrastructure in Mexico worsened the situation. Such Mexican decision was condemned and perspectives for future mutual projects are less promising.180 There are some controversial activities like canal project in Nicaragua. Generally, China allies mostly with Venezuela, Cuba and Argentina and maintains pragmatic and necessary relationship with Brazil. Colombia suffers from terrorism and inner conflict. Recently its president announced a suspension of bombings of FARC guerilla camps. Peace talks continue since it started in Cuba in 2012 and already there are improvements on land reform, reaching a strategy fighting drug trafficking and allowing participation of ex-rebels in politics. However, there are legal issues with persecution of leaders of guerrilla groups.181 It is worth to mention that China extends its relations with Cuba and it does not only in sustaining Cuba's economy, but its military as well. For instance,

177 Global Brazil and U.S.-Brazil Relations, Independent Task Force Report No. 66, Council on Foreign Relations, 2011. P. 16. Found: http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Brazil_TFR66.pdf; seen: 2015-04-20 178 Sweig, J. E. and Herrero, D. Brazil As an Emerging Global Power: Implications for US-Brazil Relations, The Aspen Institute, 2012. P. 6. Found: http://www.aspeninstitute.org/sites/default/files/content/docs/congressional/Sweig%20Essay_0.pdf; seen: 2015-04-20 179 Siega, V. What is China's interest in Latin America? International Viewpoint online magazine (June 7, 2010). Found: http://www.internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?article1883; seen: 2015-04-21 180 On the China-Mexico Rail Deal, Inter-American Dialogue (November 11, 2014). Found: http://chinaandlatinamerica.com/2014/11/11/on-the-china-mexico-rail-deal/; seen: 2015-04-22 181 Colombia announcing halt to bombings of FARC rebel camps, Vatican Radio (11/03/2015). Found: http://en.radiovaticana.va/news/2015/03/11/colombia_announcing_halt_to_bombings_of_farc_rebel_camps/1128519; seen: 2015-04-23

77 this March, Colombia detained China's vessel transporting illegal arms to Cuba.182 But despite these bilateral agendas and China's attempts to find ties with particular countries, a momentous event in Sino-Latin American relations is a first meeting of new China-CELAC forum. Actually, this bloc of 33 members does not include the US and Canada. As trade statistics are positive, economic cooperation is at the forefront, but cultural and political links are increasing as well. China shows a bit interest in this region and two presidential visits can attest this fact. China also wants support for multipolar world idea. But basic interest is to secure resources for its development.183 Nevertheless, experts evaluate China's engagement in Latin America differently. Margaret Myers notice that at the moment there are three directions where cooperation is most visible. That is trade, investments and financial assistance (loans). China has ambitious plans to increase trade up to 500 billion USD per year by the end of this decade. Anton Edmunds claims that China acts wisely and will soon begin to use its agreements selectively with Latin America. So far it has signed around 150 bilateral treaties. This might give weight to have some influence in the region. However, activities can be limited given the diversity in Latin America itself. It is expected that due to a worsening economic situation in China, now it will cooperate only with large or middle economies of Latin America leaving other states aside. Basically, China's interests in Latin America can be summarized as a attempt to maintain presence in the region, together (China and Latin America) to act and balance the US dominance. Also, the two sides share some kind of non- interference model which is not acceptable to the West. Meanwhile support for Taiwan issue is said to be less important.184 Regarding rivalry between China and the US, one group of authors sees no interest by China to damage its strategic, economic and political relations with the US. Also, there is an unequal relationship between China and Latin America in terms of economy and its structure, needs and potential. Another feature is that Chinese investments do not include high social labor and environmental conditions.185 Nevertheless, there are other views on China's interests. A vice president of American Foreign Policy Council Ilan Berman sees China's rise as a direct threat towards US interests. He maintains idea that a void that the US currently caused in international arena by being less engaged, created a situation that allows for China to diminish US hegemony and pursue "multipolar world" model. Economic policy in Brazil is one of such successful examples. However, there are no consent over this tendency, some experts think otherwise. Asked about US zero-versus China zero-sum game over Brazil, Julia E. Sweig thinks

182 Colombia detains China Cosco Shipping vessel over illegal arms, REUTERS (March 4, 2014). Found: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/04/us-colombia-china-arms-idUSKBN0LZ29W20150304; seen: 2015-04-23 183 China, CELAC, and the State of China-Latin America Relations, Inter-American Dialogue (January 8, 2015). Found: http://chinaandlatinamerica.com/2015/01/08/china-celac-and-the-state-of-china-latin-america-relations/; seen: 2015-04- 23 184 Ibid. 185 Siega, V. What is China's interest in Latin America? International Viewpoint online magazine (June 7, 2010). Found: http://www.internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?article1883; seen: 2015-04-26

78 that tension between China and US over Brazil and other Latin American countries exists, but it is quite pragmatic and reasonable. Former US ambassador to Brazil, Donna J. Hrinak highlights the complexity of trilateral or bilateral relationships rather than competition. In her view, these three countries have to be analyzed not only in regional context, but in broader terms as global players. Therefore, the interaction of different models and instruments used for economic cooperation represent a complex global relationship.186 Such positions and explanation sounds persuasive given the current state and features of these relationships. Making the final remarks, it should be said that Latin America is key to the US hegemony. Various political, economic and security initiatives and instruments of its foreign policy are targeted to maintaining dominance in this strategically important region. Close cooperation with main actors such as Brazil will remain to be the focus in the coming years. It is significant for the US which experiences a declining power an idea to have a reliable partner in Latin America. However, other competitors - particularly China limits such ambitions. The problem is that the US continues to use realism practices in bilateral trade and security field. National Security Agency espionage scandal and trading rules model unfavorable to Brazil proposed by the US proves this statement. In this context, it could be predicted that US-Brazil relationship will remain quite tense, but there are prospects for more appropriate and beneficial partnership for both sides. One of them might be a mutual response to China's engagement in Latin America. Brazil has created strong ties with this country, but gradually it experiences negative consequences of such relationship. This is especially seen in asymmetric trade balance undermining Brazil's industry and, thus, its power potential. The last chapter is designed for the evaluations of US policy in Latin America and aspect of rivalry with China for influence.

186 Sweig, J. E. and Hrinak, D. J. Findings of a CFR Task Force Report on Global Brazil and U.S.-Brazil Relations, Transcript of interview by Council on Foreign Relations (July 14, 2011). Found: http://www.cfr.org/brazil/findings-cfr- task-force-report-global-brazil-us-brazil-relations/p25484; seen: 2015-04-26

79 5. THE EVALUATION OF U.S. POLICY IN LATIN AMERICA

In the 21st century, it becomes clear that the continued preservation of US status will inevitably depend on its regional policy or success of maintained alliances. In the last chapter, an official US foreign policy making principles and priorities in relation with Latin America have been analyzed. In this part, it is appropriate to examine the foreign policy that was carried out by two B. Obama's administrations (during his first and second terms in office) and evaluate it. As well, to make some recommendations for the assurance of an improved US-Latin America relations.

5.1. The evaluation of the practical implementation of US foreign policy in Latin America

After electing the president B. Obama for the first term, a new policy course was expected. During the election campaign, documents of "Blueprint for change" and “A New Partnership for the Americas” were released and it promised more encouraging relations with the closest region - Latin America. However, it should be noted that in the last decade there were many changes which had influence for US foreign policy formulation and implementation. First of all, it can be said that US-Latin America relations became outer - efficiency (quality) and intensity decreased. A research center analyzing matters of Western Hemisphere note that significant changes led to this situation. That is, a rise of Brazil as a dominant state in Latin America, uncertainty about Mexican role, a rapid economic and social development of Latin American countries. Also, it is possible to see pragmatic politics by some countries, typically starting new regional initiatives (e.g. UNASUR, MERCOSUR or ALBA) and existing security problems in the region (drug trafficking, the number of homicides and other crimes).187 But perhaps mostly economic problems and toward fight against terrorism in the Arab world directed foreign policy accounted to the current situation. The facts show that US foreign policy during first term of B. Obama's presidency was ambiguous. One the one hand, officials of administration argue that priorities are based on the desire to help Western countries to become stable, prosperous and democratic188, but the US itself did not comply with democratic principles. For instance, in 2009 a democratically elected president of Honduras Manuel Zelaya was brutally ousted from the office and despite knowing about this

187 Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America: An Inter-American Dialogue Policy Report, 2012. P. 4-6. Found: http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf; seen: 2013-10-02 188 Valenzuela, A. U.S.-Latin American Relations: A Look Ahead, Remarks Pertaining to Western Hemisphere Affairs, 2011. Found: http://www.state.gov/p/wha/rls/rm/2011/154105.htm; seen: 2013-12-04

80 coup, president B. Obama and Secretary of State H. Clinton did not take any actions.189 And this is not the only similar case. It should be noted that the US indiscreetly interfered in the affairs of other states. Previously suspended reliefs for Bolivia were not returned and thus violated rules of World Trade Organization. Venezuela's decision to terminate relations with Trinidad in ambassadorial level had a response by the US as it withdrawn Venezuelan ambassador from the US. This confirms a long lasting confrontation with Venezuela. Another example of intervention is Haiti. Here, because of unfavorable electoral outcome, the US sought that results would be changed and even threatened the government to stop supporting the victims of earthquake.190 All this shows quite strange and controversial side of US foreign policy. It may be noted that although the US president promised to restore the position of Special Representative for the Americas, this has not been done. However, as the vice president of the Council of the Americas Eric Farnsworth says, the necessity of such position is obvious.191 Meanwhile in the national security field, the agenda includes similar issues as in the past. US military presence in the region remains and is based on "hard power" dimension. Interestingly, the US signed a security cooperation agreement with Colombia in 2009 under which US military personnel gains access to Colombian military bases.192 However, this was perceived in the whole region as a disregard of the principle of state sovereignty and attracted a large opposition. The first Obama's term has been marked by continuation of foreign policy of the former president G. W. Bush. Basically, this was manifested by insufficient willingness to cooperate (which was dictated by many conditions), a persistent unfavorable view on Latin America or in other words, to expression of paternalism. In addition, the standards of the Cold War and media were used to maintain them. The absence of serious changes in B. Obama's foreign policy can be associated with a number of reasons. It is believed that historical reasons and institutional constrains can be explain that.193 In fact, Mark Weisbrot offers a slightly different possible reason that the possibilities for reelection of B. Obama for the second term depended solely on economic conditions.194 In other words, the change of foreign policy course does not have big influence for that (unless it worsens the economic situation of a state, for example due to a started wars).

189 Buxton, J. Forward into History: Understanding Obama's Latin American Policy, Latin American Perspectives, 2011 38: 29. P. 36. Found: http://lap.sagepub.com/content/38/4/29.full.pdf+html; seen: 2013-12-07 190 Weisbrot, M. Obama‟s Latin America Policy: Continuity Without Change, Latin American Perspectives, 2011. P. 4- 7. Found: http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/obamas-latin-america-policy-2011-05.pdf; seen: 2013-12-02 191 Jackobson, L. Administration engages Latin America, but not with a special envoy, The Obameter, 2011. Found: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/obameter/promise/220/reinstate-special-envoy-for-the-americas/; seen: 2013-12-05 192 Weisbrot, M. Op. Cit. P. 3. 193 Buxton, J. Op. Cit. P. 38. 194 Weisbrot, M. Op. Cit. P. 8.

81 Peter Hakim argues that rhetoric of B. Obama's administration remained linked with concepts of partnership and shared commitments with Latin America, but it is inadequate response to the regional context which has changed. The author also believes that contrary to the former presidents, B. Obama has not presented a clear and ambitious strategy for US policy in the hemisphere.195 It can be agreed on that but just partly, because in the halfway of his first term, president Obama gradually began to give more focus on Latin America. This change is mainly noticeable by visits of high-ranking officials to particular countries in abundant numbers and more open policy. During one official visit to Chile in 2011, president B. Obama defined this region: "the Latin America that I see today -- a region on the move, proud of its progress, and ready to assume a greater role in world affairs.”196 This explanation is supported by Ricardo Zuniga, a head of Latin America policy for the White House‟s National Security Council. He claims that “We‟re running into each other in more parts of the world and in more multilateral organizations.”197 From now on, no longer a paternalistic view is dominating, but based on a principle of partnership. It is interesting that data of a survey conducted in 2013198 shows that most of the Latin American countries views the US positively (e.g. in Salvador - 79 percent, in Brazil 73 percent respectively). However, one of the most anti-American countries is Argentina where 73 percent of respondents believe that the US does not respect their interests. Thus, although there are different opinions about the US role in the region, but an overall trend is encouraging for the development of relations.

5.2. Relevant problems and the current course of US foreign policy

The second term of B. Obama's presidency began in 2013. It is still difficult to evaluate the works that have been done, but it is useful to look at the initiatives and observable changes in foreign policy on Latin America. It may be noted that in the end of 2013 the US president administration worked actively regarding Latin America trying to achieve goals that were set and compensate not fully

195 Hakim, P. The United States and Latin America: The Neighbourhood has Changed, Italian Journal of International Affairs, 46:4, 63-78. P. 64; 74. Found:http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/03932729.2011.628094; seen: 2013-12-05 196 President Obama‟s Santiago Speech: "The Latin America That I See Today" (Santiago, Chile, March 21, 2011), The White House Blog. Found: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/03/22/president-obama-s-santiago-speech-latin- america-i-see-today; seen: 2013-09-20 197 A qoute by Ricardo Zuniga, the head of Latin America policy for the White House„s National Security Council. Cituota iš: Lindegren, R. Obama Forges Closer Ties with Latin America, International Relations Online Blog, July 1st, 2013. Found: http://ironline.american.edu/obama-forges-closer-ties-with-latin-america/; seen: 2013-12-07 198 ”Latin America Views The United States Favorably, Pew Says”, The Huffington Post (07/29/2013). Found: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/29/latin-america-views-the-u_n_3672000.html; seen: 2013-12-08

82 implemented policy. This is confirmed by the words of Vice-president Biden said that "the narrative is shifting from what we can do for Latin America, to what we can do with Latin America".199 At the same time it is the most active period of high level commitment to this region. One may observe that free trade agreements began to provide benefits and trade with Latin America (especially export) grew significantly. Also, the TPP initiative is considered perspective and it is one of the measures to respond to China's growing trading and financial power. B. Obama attempts to include in this projection Chile, Peru and Mexico.200 Another interesting change is that now the focus is more on economic development rather than on fight against narcotics which has been really difficult and inefficient.201 This can be viewed positively, because namely economic cooperation is the basis of US-Latin America relations. However, in other fields policy is continued along a similar line. For example, for the maintenance of security and control, the US military presence in the region is not decreasing. Conversely, huge financial support is provided for military, particularly for the unconstitutional war on drugs. Moreover, there are no attempts to review this strategy.202 Despite that, the US is looking for ways to deflect possible influence of other countries in the region. Iran is investing in such countries like Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela. That is why B. Obama signed a law which delimits Iran influence.203 This shows that the US is afraid of not only Chinese impact. Despite a certain boom of relations between the US and Latin America, they are obscured because recently it was discovered that the US conducts a two-sided foreign policy. Information has been revealed that the US intelligence was spying various countries of the region and their leaders. It can be only predicted that by this the aim was to gather some information about future plans of those states, which would allow later to blackmail or use it for other purposes. It may be noted that this reasonably causes discontent in Latin America and countries condemned these actions directed against democratically elected governments.204 In addition, this incident undermined the

199 Lindegren, R. Op. Cit. 200 Ibid. 201 Shear, D. M. ir Archibold , C. R. In Latin America, U.S. Focus Shifts From Drug War to Economy, The New York Times, 2013 m. geguţės 4 d. Found: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/05/world/americas/in-latin-america-us-shifts- focus-from-drug-war-to-economy.html?_r=1&; seen: 2013-12-08 202 Newman, A. Obama Expands U.S. Military Role in Latin America, Again, The New American (Feb 12, 2013). Found: http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/foreign-policy/item/14492-obama-expands-us-military-role-in-latin- america-again; seen: 2013-12-06 203 JAV prezidentas pasirašė įstatymą prieš Irano įtaką Lotynų Amerikoje, Kauno diena, 2012-12-29. Found: http://kauno.diena.lt/naujienos/ekonomika-ir-politika/jav-prezidentas-pasirase-istatyma-pries-irano-itaka-lotynu- amerikoje#ixzz2nRONkrWC; seen: 2013-12-01 204 Stea, C. Latin America Condemns US Espionage at United Nations Security Council, Global Research, August 17, 2013. Found: http://www.globalresearch.ca/latin-america-condemns-us-espionage-at-united-nations-security- council/5346120; seen: 2013-12-02

83 improvements of relations with Brazil.205 In 2013 a first official visit since 1995 of Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff was organized, but due to spying scandal it was cancelled. It is worth mentioning that in 2013 the main fighter against US imperialism - Venezuelan president H. Chavez died. He was a symbol of anti-Americanism who changed not only bilateral but the entire region's relations with the US. Namely, he initiated the establishment of various economic and political unions as a counterbalance for US influence.206 It is interesting to follow the period of post-Chavez Venezuela and developments of relations with the US. It was expected that hostility will decrease and the successor president Nicolas Maduro will rely on military trying to retain power and continue policy of the predecessor.207 However, so far there have not been any major changes or softening of relations between these two countries, although in general terms, better relations with one of the most antagonist countries in the region would contribute to the success of US foreign policy. However, it can be mentioned that there are various remaining problems, which have to be addressed by the US president administration. One of the priorities is a warming of relations with Cuba. Actually, in the beginning Obama took unpopular position of defending embargo and various prohibitions for this country. Nevertheless, there were intentions from the society to begin a diplomatic dialogue and lift these barriers.208 This is mainly because united Latin America undoubtedly could be more beneficial in trade and other fields for the US. Long lasting confrontations are additional risk factor for positive environment in economic, political relations. The Secretary of State J. Kerry states that era of Monroe doctrine has passed and time of cooperation with treatment of other countries as equals has come. He proposes for both continents (North and South Americas) to responsibly strengthen ties in energy, because it has impact on the entire world supply.209 In fact, this area could serve as a basis for enhanced cooperation. However, quite a significant place is taken by a contribution to the international climate protection regime. In this field Latin American countries sometimes act more actively than the US. Preservation of nature and clean energy issues are highlighted by the US president at the moment, because they are directly related to the possible emergence of global problems in the long run.

205 Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff calls off US trip, BBC (September 17, 2013). Found: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin- america-24133161; seen: 2013-12-02 206 LaFranchi, H. Hugo Chavez legacy: a wedge between US, Latin America, The Christian Science Monitor, March 5, 2013. Found: http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2013/0305/Hugo-Chavez-legacy-a-wedge-between-US- Latin-America-video; seen: 2013-12-04 207 Latin America, after Chávez and the US? Future Foreign Policy, May 9, 2013. Found: http://www.futureforeignpolicy.com/latin-america-after-chavez-and-the-us/; seen: 2013-11-25 208 Goodman, A. The problems with U.S. foreign policy in Latin America, April 19, 2012. Found: http://rabble.ca/columnists/2012/04/problems-us-foreign-policy-latin-america; seen: 2013-11-17 209 Kerry, J. Remarks on U.S. Policy in the Western Hemisphere, November 18, 2013. Found: http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2013/11/217680.htm; seen: 2013-12-04

84 According to the current foreign policy course in Latin America, some recommendations and suggestions can be made. First of all, the US should improve the use of diplomatic measures, specifically, maximize the "soft power dimension. This would allow to find a the overall atmosphere of relations and reduce anti-American phenomenon. A strategy abandoning hegemonic ambitions would be more in line with the real situation. Quite unique is a proposal to let Brazil administrate the region, but it would informally improve benevolence. As well, possible amendments in migration policy and issuance of US citizenship for many emigrants from Latin America which are without documents might lead to positive outcomes.210 It is likely that this would bring back the legality of US actions in the region. In the action plan211 presented by American Enterprise Institute there is an idea that practical decisions are more important for collective benefit rather than nicely used rhetorical devices. It is therefore proposed to promote trade, mutual energy dependence, development of technologies and economic growth. Other important initiative is a fight with threats - crime near borders, radical populism. Regional leaders have to be involve in the dialogue and seek to ensure the rule of law. A proposal made by UNASUR to declare South America a free trade zone is quite interesting and worth considering. It was expressed once again by Latin American Studies Association.212 Lastly, it is worth to deepen relations with the main Latin American countries. Bilateral relations could become the reason for successful foreign policy, bringing together countries a different levels.

5.3. The US-China competition for Latin America

In this last subdivision of the thesis, it is important to note and cover China's factor for the US foreign policy in Latin America. Although China and the US experience a new period of closer cooperation, a divergent understanding of world governance, attitude toward global issues remain. This is especially seen in applying different values, norms and dealing with particular regions. At the moment there is an increasing competition between the US and China for influence in Latin America. For both countries this region is important for its natural resources, opportunities for trade. But there are other interests as well. It could be observed that two countries seek benevolence by organizing visits of their leaders or officials to Latin American countries. The frequency of such visits is increasing.

210 Grandin, G. Empire's Senescence: U.S. Policy in Latin America, New Labor Forum, Vol. 19, No. 1, 2010. P. 15; 17. Found: https://muse.jhu.edu/journals/new_labor_forum/v019/19.1.grandin.html; seen: 2013-12-08 211 Noriega, F. R. ir Cárdenas, R. J. An action plan for US policy in the Americas, American Enterprise Institute, 2012. P. 1. Found: http://www.aei.org/files/2012/12/06/-an-action-plan-for-us-policy-in-the-americas_091631523856.pdf; seen: 2013-12-05 212 The Obama Initiative, Latin American Perspectives 2011 38: 5. P. 7. Found: http://lap.sagepub.com/content/38/4/5.full.pdf+html; seen: 2013-11-24

85 There is a tendency that the US tone and stance is now more welcome for economic relations than in the first term of B. Obama's presidency. Latin America itself has become more confident, able to choose partners and avoids being patronized by any powers. Therefore, it balances between the US, China and even other countries. The US is not fully concerned, it is just partly afraid that China might gain economic benefits in Latin America like it did Africa. In general, the success of reaching influence for both countries depend on their approach toward Latin America. The US maintains its historical regional interference and legacy, while China's policy is not driven by ideological line and is mainly focused on commercial.213 However, Robert Valencia claims that China aligns more easily with countries that propagate a leftist ideology, especially for technology and infrastructure. China's presence in the region is seen more notably since 2009. Nonetheless, the US did not lose this region as it remains the main trade partner with most of the countries and ties in other fields are relatively strong. Both China and the US uses various instruments to secure its interests - by diplomacy, trade as leverage and investments.214 But obviously there are differences in the way two countries use their methods. Ariel Armony provides several very interesting insights about US-China rivalry, the development of Latin America and features of hemispheric relations. A parallel with Japan's activities in Latin America in 1970s can be made. It was similarly fast growing economy, but China now has a feature of self-conscious assertiveness. An author takes a different approach telling that it is better to avoid a 'decline' category analyzing the US influence in Latin America. The concept is not very clear. He maintains idea that although its influence has declined, but the US still has hegemony and this fact is very important. However, it is worth to admit that the US has made a mistake by reducing the strategic role of this region for its interests to a zone of 'relative insignificance'. Therefore, neither Bush nor Obama administrations produce a coherent policy and focused on domestic issues.215 In this respect China's foreign policy is also oriented according to this principles, but it needs to focus on foreign markets (the US needs that to a lesser extent). Due to the fact that single issue or united policy is hardly applicable for Latin America, China takes several roles in this region. It acts as a consuming country of its commodities and also as a lender and investor. And although China's ambitions are not clear and its role is still being formed, the US is afraid of China's state-controlled investments, large labor flows and also military presence. But as author suggest, a nationalist reaction from Latin American countries is more likely

213 Regenstreif, G. The looming U.S.-China rivalry over Latin America, Reuters (June 12, 2013). Found: http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/06/12/the-looming-u-s-china-rivalry-over-latin-america/; seen: 2015-04-24 214 US and China: The Fight for Latin America, World Policy Blog (June 24, 2013). Found: http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2013/06/24/us-and-china-fight-latin-america; seen: 2015-04-24 215 Armony, A. C. Setting the Agenda: Asia and Latin America in the 21st Century, Center for Latin American Studies, 2012. P. 20; 21. Found: http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Setting_the_Agenda- _Asia_and_Latin_America_in_the_21st_Century.pdf; seen: 2015-04-24

86 than response from the US. Among several scenarios as how to deal with the emerging powers and actors in the region such as China, the most likely scenario is that countries will formulate a joint policy with regard to the impact of FCI on the environment. In a broader context, other issues that would combine domestic and international norms would push China to act more fairly and justly. But in general, there are little prospects for normal and all-round hemispheric politics as it is still more an idea than practical and multidimensional actions.216 Such environment and features make difficulties to pursue national interests for major powers. In order to make the generalizing remarks, opinion of some important researchers or policy makers were asked. Thomas A. Breslin217, a professor at Florida International University shared his view on this topic. According to him, the US interests in Latin America have been mainly corporate. Its actions are driven by corporate investments and intentions. The US holds strong influence and economic rivalry between the US and China is likely to increase. What professor noted is an interesting idea that the US has willingness to link up with oppressive governments in Latin America. Due to the religious and racial superiority the region welcomes outside competitors to the US and has begun small-scale switches from dollar-based trade to yuan. This is an important sign. Breslin believes that B. Obama administration have failed to significantly improve US relations with Latin America and even has intentions to foster a coup in this region. As for China, mostly it wants to have trade relations without arming its partners, but it can be noted that China has not been a reliable partner. Dr. Paul Bonicelli, a former assistant administrator for the United States Agency for International Development's (USAID) Bureau of Latin America and the Caribbean has agreed to be interviewed (see Annex No. 11) and share his theoretical and practical experience on this topic.218 Asked about the theoretical explanation of the US foreign policy in Latin America, respondent noted that it acts in a combination of idealism and realism. The US promotes democratic values, principles of international law, but when stakes are high it defends its security interests and does all what is needed - joins coalitions, balance power and etc. Discussing the US interests, the respondent emphasized that in general interests are great and largely dictated by a territorial proximity, thus, close commercial, family and cultural ties can be noticed. The problem is that on the most part the US governments regardless of their political views

216 Ibid. P. 22; 23. 217 An interview has been carried by email, asking nine questions about the US-Latin America relations and China's factor in this context. The answers received from professor Thomas A. Breslin are summarized and some parts of the answers are presented in the text. 218 An interview has been carried out by Skype video call on March 30th, 2015. In total nine questions were asked about the US and China's interests in Latin America; factors that influence US policy on Latin America; activities in the region (case of Brazil and other); aspect of US-China competition for influence, features of B. Obama's foreign policy; recent development related with Cuba and Venezuela; future prospects for regional and global cooperation; initiatives and finally about the theoretical explanation of US policy in Latin America.

87 did not pay enough attention to this region and did not consider the extent of significance of such relations. Interesting idea was pointed out that the US is also linked with Latin America by religious ties (surprisingly, it is more protestant than catholic region). Dr. Paul Bonicelli illustrated the relations between US and Latin American countries by a tendency that France has stronger ties with its former colonies rather than the US which maintained friendly and supportive relations. And this is basically an indication that something is wrong. In his assessment, Bonicelli supports an idea that the US has a 'tremendous influence' in region and operates as a guarantor of security (not only in this region, but worldwide). Despite that, the US foreign policy can be viewed as not successful, because of several reasons. In his view, events of 9/11 and wars afterwards distracted US attention from Latin America, although president Bush wanted closer relations. Also the fact that US did not appoint best diplomats for this region, did not create a position of special envoy contributed to the current state of partnership. But most importantly, the inefficiency in dealing with some hostile countries and their leaders is was an undermining factor. President B. Obama does not respond to verbal, diplomatic and other attacks. Namely, talking about legacy of B. Obama for regional cooperation, Bonicelli called him a worst president in relations with Latin America in history. This is mainly because he prioritizes not the right or essential things and tries to create human contacts with the wrong people (efforts for Cuba are criticized by a respondent who gives analogy to a flawed US policy in supporting Iran in the Middle East). At the same time, dr. Paul Bonicelli expressed his hopes that new president will get back to basics and will forge pragmatic relations. He revealed his view about the ideal model for the hemisphere - "it's democracy, it's Catholicism, it's close relationship". A growing China's influence in the region and aspect of competition with the US was also addressed during an interview with the US official. In fact, the respondent agrees that to some extent China has a broader goal to defeat the US and rule the world, but more realistic and actual is an interest to secure its growth. He claims that China acts very wisely to pursue its two main goals. It needs resources, energy and works actively in this field to secure this interest. At the same time China seeks diplomatic support for Taiwan issue. Nevertheless, countries of the region and even from other parts of the world (e.g. Africa) leaders notice that China uses relations only to get resources and it is not interested in mutual benefit or long term outcomes (making democratic reforms). It can be argued that China does engage into socioeconomic development of Latin American countries, contributes by building infrastructure in this region, but China's activities are pragmatic and focused on achieving its goals. Although more themes were discussed in an interview, but the last notice should be made about the case of Brazil. Actually, Dr. P. Bonicelli has a skeptical view about its economic development of Brazil, because growth is artificial and can change. Also he sees a crucial problem

88 of corruption in this country that impedes to boom economically. He notes that a logic for Brazil to maintain close ties with Cuba, Venezuela and to oppose the US initiatives is also not a well-founded step. Basically, perspectives for regional cooperation are complicated. In the last paragraphs of the work, it is important to make some final remarks. In one of the latest Brookings policy briefs regarding Inter-American relations, the US is advised to take several important steps that could make its foreign policy more successful. First of all, there is a need to direct Latin America toward collaboration on global governance. Some of the countries have become important international players and their positions and actions are significant. Also, to acknowledge the lack of hemispheric consensus as there are many disagreements. In specific field, the US should rethink its counternarcotics policy, focusing more on US jurisdiction and control. More transparency and accountability on various assistance programs is needed. Particular attention has to be paid for regional leader Brazil and challenges in relations with this country. One of the most important recommendations for the US is to ensure that China's economic presence would not diminish political and social achievements in Latin America. The US should focus on its core interests - peace, democracy and markets.219 These recommendations cover the main aspects of current US-Latin America relations and implementing them may strengthen it. The topic that has been covered in this work can be analyzed in different perspectives as well, adding more variables or cases to illustrate more detailed situation. However, the main features between China and the US in rivalry for influence over Latin America (and leading country Brazil) is that interests match chiefly in economic field. The clash of ideas about world governance, international system exist in political field as well, but economic instruments differ more obviously. It can be said that competition is not seen apparently in state level, but in private sector it is. Nevertheless, it is expected that China will become more engaged in the coming years. Despite that, the US holds strong positions and its policy is guided not by single issue, but by multilevel cooperation on various issues. But the fact is that US has to make positive amendments in its policy and treatment of Latin American countries in order to preserve a historically significant relationship in bilateral and regional terms.

219 Better Than You Think: Reframing Inter-American Relations, Brookings Policy Brief (March, 2015). P. 18. Found: http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2015/03/inter-american-relations-feinberg-miller- trinkunas/better-than-you-think--reframing-interamerican-relations.pdf; seen: 2015-05-02

89 CONCLUSIONS

1. Political realism has been one of the most influential theories of international relations. The general features are the focus on power as central element, statism, survival and self-help. H. Morgenthau maintained the idea that states are the most important actors and that they struggle for power and security in anarchic international system. Some of the US activities in Latin America include elements of political realism. It is important to note that foreign policy depends on strategy, power, national interests and instruments. Strategy can be defined as a plan of action used to achieve a long-term or specific aim. It encompasses the main principles, priorities, capabilities of a country, also includes possible challenges and threats. Actually, influence can be achieved by involving both – national power and appropriate foreign policy instruments. In fact, the US is the only hegemonic power in contemporary international system. Its foreign policy strategy can be generalized into four main goals – power, peace, prosperity and principles. The might of US relies on the success in achieving these goals. Recently, the importance of economic factors is increasing. 2. Different factors influence the US policy in Latin America. The US-Latin America relationship historically has been marked by principles of inequality, economic disadvantages and political influence, where the US takes a dominant position. The state pragmatically used foreign policy instruments to increase control over the region – with special documents delimited colonialism by European countries, held a monopoly in important fields of Latin American economy, engaged in military interventions. Also, an interesting feature is that the US constantly invents various new security threats (like communism, narcotics and terrorism). Currently the background is changing as the US tries to renew cooperation with Latin American countries, but some of the features and long lasting issues remain. Regarding Brazil, it should be said that the both countries have established strong relations despite periods of disagreements, but there are challenges for future to strengthen ties in various fields. Basically, Latin American countries became more developed, independent and the US has to adjust its policy accordingly. 3. The strategic US interests in Latin America can be summarized into three categories – military, economic and political. US government actively involves in regional security matters and prevention of hostile powers, it also attempts to foster economic development and ensure political stability. Moreover, it seeks for greater regional cooperation on various transnational problems and encourage Latin American countries to engage in dealing with global challenges. At the moment, such problems as immigration, trade, civil conflicts and drugs are the main issues in the agenda of US policy on Latin America. Whereas China pursues primarily economic interests in trade, investments and lending. It contributes to the development of Latin America countries and in turn

90 wants political support to disregard its violations of the international law and rules. Generally, interests by China are more pragmatic, based on its own growth or reach for diplomatic support, while the US is interested in safe, democratic and prosperous neighborhood. 4. Brazil as the leading country in Latin America is very important for the US to maintain its influence in the region. The analysis of bilateral relations shows that countries mainly cooperate in political, military/security and economic areas. The US tries to involve Brazil into global forums to give more political weight. Security cooperation includes efforts in specific areas such as counternarcotics, counterterrorism, and defense. However, the recent NSA spying scandal undermines relationship. The main problem in economic cooperation is the lack of free trade agreement and settlement of taxes issue. There is little success in negotiations over trade. Moreover, the US and Brazil has several disputes over cotton, WTO rules. Another challenge is that China overtook the US in trade with Brazil. Actually, China cooperates with Brazil mostly because of trade (resources, food, energy) and to pursue its multipolar world idea (in BRICS). It is essential to note that China's activities makes harm for industrial potential of Brazil. Generally, the US and Brazil should focus more on mutual interests - energy, environmental issues. This approach might help to foster closer economic relationship. 5. It has been found that despite big expectations, the US president B. Obama continues a controversial foreign policy, intervening into the affairs of Latin American countries. However, in a broader sense, little attention has been given to this region, as a consequence, relationship has deteriorated and the US influence decreased. Nonetheless, the fact that acceptance among Latin American countries increased, the ineffective foreign policy was improved by B. Obama's administration visits, higher trade volume and raised initiatives. In addition, worth mentioning is the change in treatment of Latin America in rhetoric of public officials (from paternalism to partnership categories). All this determines the increased integration and coordination of actions in response to global problems or preventing them. 6. Discussing the growing influence of China in Latin America, three implications should be emphasized. First of all, the decline of US hegemony in region is likely to continue both for domestic and external reasons. The US and China so far have sought for cooperation rather than confrontation, but there is potential for escalation in future as China takes more firm positions. In economic terms, although China showed remarkable indexes in trade and investment with Latin American countries, it is nonetheless free times that of the US. In security and military field, the US moderately stress the fact that China begins such actions but in the near future no threat is seen as China's interests are primarily non-military (economic, ideological and etc.). However, in general interactions between these three countries - US, Brazil and China should be perceived as a complex global relationship with elements of rivalry and cooperation at the same time.

91 7. It could be argued that US and China's interests collide mainly in economic area where Chinese firms gain a competitive advantage by avoiding to apply various international standards. But even though some of the initiatives proposed by the US encounter disapproval, the US economic relations in the region are still better developed. However, the pursuit of political influence in Latin America can be observed. The US response to China's activities is a broader, multi-faceted foreign policy, oriented not only to the presence in the region, but also to the resolution of various problems. Meanwhile China is preoccupied with its ambition to become more important player in the world, to secure a smooth economic growth and etc. Although the US has lost some of its influence in the region over the last decade, nevertheless, it has enough instruments to act and maintain it.

92 LIST OF LITERATURE AND REFERENCES

1. LITERATURE

Monographies and books

1. Brewer, S. Borders and Bridges: A History of U.S.-Latin American Relations. Praeger Security International, 2006. 2. Burchill, S. Theories of international relations, Palgrave Macmillan, 2005. 3. Dunne, T. Foreign policy: theories, actors, cases, Oxford University Press, 2012. 4. Dunne, T. International relations theories: discipline and diversity, Oxford University Press, 2013. 5. Jackson, R. and Sorensen, G. Introduction to international relations: theories and approaches. Oxford University Press, 2010. 6. LaRosa, J. M. and Mora, O. F. Neighborly Adversaries: Readings in U.S.-Latin American Relations. Rowman & Littlefield, 2007. 7. Mearsheimer, J. J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, W. W. Norton & Company, 2001. 8. Morgenthau, H. Politics among nations: the struggle for power and peace, 1985. 9. Morgenthau, H. Politics among nations: the struggle for power and peace, 1948. 10. Pastor, R. Exiting the Whirpool: U.S. Foreign Policy toward Latin America and the Caribbean 11. Sutch, P. and Juanita, E. International relations: the basics, Routledge, 2007.

Articles in periodic scientific journals

1. Abdenur, R. Brazil and its Strategic Relations with China, Germany, and the United States, 2011. Latin American Policy, Vol. 2 Issue 1. P. 58–71. 2. Buxton, J. Forward into History: Understanding Obama's Latin American Policy, Latin American Perspectives, 2011 38: 29. P. 29-45. 3. Carranza, M. E. Mercosure, The Free Trade Area of the Americas, and the Future of U.S. Hegemony in Latin America, Fordham International Law Journal, Volume 27, Issue 4, 2003. P. 1029-1065. 4. Christensen, S. F. Brazil's Foreign Policy Priorities, 2013, Third World Quarterly, vol. 34, no. 2, P. 271-286. 5. Coll, A. R. United States Strategic Interests in Latin America, Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs Vol. 39, No. 1, 1997. P. 45-57.

93 6. De Santibañes, F. An End to U.S. Hegemony? The Strategic Implications of China's Growing Presence in Latin America, Comparative Strategy, 28:1, 2009. P. 17-36. 7. Grandin, G. Empire's Senescence: U.S. Policy in Latin America, New Labor Forum, Vol. 19, No. 1, 2010. P. 14-23. 8. Hakim, P. The United States and Latin America: The Neighbourhood has Changed, Italian Journal of International Affairs, 46:4, 63-78. 9. Jenkins, R. (2012), China and Brazil: Economic Impacts of a Growing Relationship, Journal of Current Chinese Affairs, 41, 1. P. 21-47. 10. Sanchez, P. and Sholar M. Power and Principle: A New US Policy for Latin America, International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Vol. 2 No. 23; 2012. P. 19-27. 11. The Obama Initiative, Latin American Perspectives 2011 38: 5. P. 5-13. 12. Urbelis, V. Strategija - jos elementai ir sąvokos evoliucija, Politologija, 2001/4 (24). P. 1-29. 13. Vadell, A. J. The North of the South: The Geopolitical Implications of “Pacific Consensus” in South America and the Brazilian Dilemma, Latin American Policy, Vol. 4 Issue 1., 2013. P. 36-56. 14. Weisbrot, M. Obama‟s Latin America Policy: Continuity Without Change, Latin American Perspectives, 2011. P. 1-11. 15. Weldes, J. Constructing National Interests, The European Journal of International Relations, 1996; 2. P. 275-318.

Articles in other scientific publications

1. Hinojosa-Ojeda, R. A. Brazil and the United States at the Gateway of the FTAA: A CGE Modeling Approach to Challenges and Options, North American Integration and Development Center, 2000. Found: http://www.cap.lmu.de/transatlantic/download/Hinojosatext.PDF; seen: 2014-11-12 2. Rabasa, A. Challenges to Security in the Hemishpere, Center for Hemispheric Policy, 2010. Found: https://umshare.miami.edu/web/wda/hemisphericpolicy/Rabasa_Security.pdf ; seen: 2015-03-06 3. Schott, J. J. US-Brazil Trade Relations in a New Era, Institute for International Economics, 2003. Found: http://www.iie.com/publications/papers/schott1103-2.pdf; seen: 2014-11-12 4. Shifter, M. U.S. Influence in Latin America, LACC/ARC/U.S. Southern Command Policy Roundtable Series (March 5, 2014). Found: http://lacc.fiu.edu/research/publications/commissioned- paper-2014-michael-shifter.pdf; seen: 2014-11-19 5. Sweig, J. E. and Herrero, D. Brazil As an Emerging Global Power: Implications for US-Brazil Relations, The Aspen Institute, 2012. Found: http://www.aspeninstitute.org/sites/default/files/content/docs/congressional/Sweig%20Essay_0.pdf; seen: 2015-04-20

94 6. Taylor, P. D. Latin American Security Challenges: A Collaborative Inquiry from North and South, 2004. Found: https://www.usnwc.edu/Publications/Naval-War-College-Press/-Newport- Papers/Documents/21-pdf.aspx; seen: 2015-03-14 7. Tulchin, J. S. United States Policy and Security Interests in Latin America, Freidrich Ebert Stiftung, 2010. Found: http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/la-seguridad/07424.pdf; seen: 2015-04-15 8. U.S. economic relations with Latin American and Caribbean countries in a time of transition, SELA SP/Di No. 4 - 12, 2012. Found: http://www.sela.org/attach/258/default/Di- 4_US_economic_relations_with_LAC_countries_in_a_time_of_transition.pdf; seen: 2014-11-17

2. REFERENCES

Law acts and documents

1. National Security Strategy by the U.S. President Barack Obama, 2010 May 26. Found: http://nssarchive.us/NSSR/2010.pdf; seen: 2013-12-05 2. National Security Strategy by the U.S. President Barack Obama, 2015 February. Found: http://nssarchive.us/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/2015.pdf; seen: 2015-01-15 3. The Constitution of the United States. Found: http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/charters/constitution_transcript.html; seen: 2013-12-06 4. Theodore Roosevelt's Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine (1905), A National Initiative on American History, Civics, and Service. Found: http://www.ourdocuments.gov/doc.php?doc=56; seen: 2015- 01-04 5. US Trade Act of 2002: Title XXI. Found: http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS- 107hr3009enr/pdf/BILLS-107hr3009enr.pdf

Speeches and interviews

1. An interview has been carried by email, asking nine questions about the US-Latin America relations and China's factor in this context. The answers received from professor Thomas A. Breslin are summarized and some parts of the answers are presented in the text. 2. An interview has been carried out by Skype video call on March 30th, 2015. In total nine questions were asked about the US and China's interests in Latin America; factors that influence US policy on Latin America; activities in the region (case of Brazil and other); aspect of US-China competition for influence, features of B. Obama's foreign policy; recent development related with Cuba and

95 Venezuela; future prospects for regional and global cooperation; initiatives and finally about the theoretical explanation of US policy in Latin America. 3. Barack Obama: "Address Before a Joint Session of Congress on the State of the Union," January 24, 2012. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project. Found: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=99000; seen: 2013-12-03 4. Barack Obama: "Address Before a Joint Session of Congress on the State of the Union," February 12, 2013. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project. Found: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=102826; seen: 2013-12-03 5. Barack Obama: "Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress on the State of the Union," January 27, 2010. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project. Found: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=87433; seen: 2013-12-04 6. Barack Obama: "Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress on the State of the Union," January 25, 2011. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project. Found: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=88928; seen: 2013-12-04 7. Barack Obama: "Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress on the State of the Union," January 28, 2014. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project. Found: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=104596; seen: 2015-01-19 8. Barack Obama: "Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress on the State of the Union," January 20, 2015. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project. Found: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=108031; seen: 2015-02-14 9. Barack Obama: "Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress," February 24, 2009. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project. Found: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=85753; seen: 2013-12-04 10. President Obama‟s Santiago Speech: "The Latin America That I See Today" (Santiago, Chile, March 21, 2011), The White House Blog. Found: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/03/22/president-obama-s-santiago-speech-latin-america-i- see-today 11. State of the Union Addresses and Messages: research notes by Gerhard Peters. Found: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/sou.php; seen: 2013-12-02 12. Sweig, J. E. and Hrinak, D. J. Findings of a CFR Task Force Report on Global Brazil and U.S.- Brazil Relations, Transcript of interview by Council on Foreign Relations (July 14, 2011). Found: http://www.cfr.org/brazil/findings-cfr-task-force-report-global-brazil-us-brazil-relations/p25484; seen: 2015-04-26

Electronic media

96

1. ”Latin America Views The United States Favorably, Pew Says”, The Huffington Post (07/29/2013). Found: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/29/latin-america-views-the-u_n_3672000.html; seen: 2013-12-08 2. Alba alliance ambitions lay bare Latin trade confusion, BBC (August 1, 2013). Found: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23515979; seen: 2015-02-22 3. Berger, S. R. Obama's national security strategy: A little George Bush, lots of Bill Clinton, The Washington Post (May 30, 2010). Found: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp- dyn/content/article/2010/05/28/AR2010052804466.html; seen: 2013-12-06 4. Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff calls off US trip, BBC (September 17, 2013). Found: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-24133161; seen: 2013-12-02 5. Bruni, F. THE 2000 CAMPAIGN: THE TEXAS GOVERNOR; BUSH VOWS TO PUT GREATER U.S. FOCUS ON LATIN AMERICA, The New York Times (August 26, 2000). Found: http://www.nytimes.com/2000/08/26/us/2000-campaign-texas-governor-bush-vows-put-greater-us- focus-latin-america.html; seen: 2015-01-06 6. Colombia announcing halt to bombings of FARC rebel camps, Vatican Radio (11/03/2015). Found: http://en.radiovaticana.va/news/2015/03/11/colombia_announcing_halt_to_bombings_of_farc_rebel _camps/1128519; seen: 2015-04-23 7. Colombia detains China Cosco Shipping vessel over illegal arms, REUTERS (March 4, 2014). Found: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/04/us-colombia-china-arms- idUSKBN0LZ29W20150304; seen: 2015-04-23 8. Feaver, P. Obama‟s National Security Strategy: real change or just „Bush Lite?' Foreign Policy, 2010. Found: http://shadow.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/05/27/obama_s_national_security_strategy_real_chang e_or_just_bush_lite#sthash.fMaskR00.dpbs; seen: 2013-12-06 9. Foreign Policy 101: Who Makes U.S. Foreign Policy? Found: http://usforeignpolicy.about.com/od/backgroundhistory/a/whomakesforpol.htm; seen: 2013-12-06 10. Francis, D. Meet America‟s New Public Enemy No. 1, Foreign Policy (Feb 27, 2015). Found: http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/27/meet-americas-new-public-enemy-no- 1/?utm_content=buffer1768a&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=b uffer; seen: 2015-04-10 11. Gillespie, P. China's big chess move against the U.S.: Latin America, CNN Money (March 4, 2015). Found: http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/04/news/economy/china-latin-america-relations- united-states/; seen: 2015-04-13

97 12. Goodman, A. The problems with U.S. foreign policy in Latin America, April 19, 2012. Found: http://rabble.ca/columnists/2012/04/problems-us-foreign-policy-latin-america; seen: 2013-11-17 13. JAV prezidentas pasirašė įstatymą prieš Irano įtaką Lotynų Amerikoje, Kauno diena, 2012-12-29. Found: http://kauno.diena.lt/naujienos/ekonomika-ir-politika/jav-prezidentas-pasirase-istatyma- pries-irano-itaka-lotynu-amerikoje#ixzz2nRONkrWC; seen: 2013-12-01 14. LaFranchi, H. Hugo Chavez legacy: a wedge between US, Latin America, The Christian Science Monitor, March 5, 2013. Found: http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2013/0305/Hugo- Chavez-legacy-a-wedge-between-US-Latin-America-video; seen: 2013-12-04 15. Latin America Largely Lost in Obama‟s State of the Union Address, The Latin American Herald Tribune. Found: http://laht.com/article.asp?CategoryId=12394&ArticleId=465491; seen: 2013-12-06 16. Latin America Views The United States Favorably, Pew Says, The Huffington Post (July 29, 2013). Found: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/29/latin-america-views-the-u_n_3672000.html; seen: 2015-02-22 17. Newman, A. Obama Expands U.S. Military Role in Latin America, Again, The New American (Feb 12, 2013). Found: http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/foreign-policy/item/14492-obama- expands-us-military-role-in-latin-america-again; seen: 2015-01-04 18. Politics put to one side in sign of closer ties between Brazil and the US, Financial Times (May 16, 2013). Found: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9f9d81c6-b883-11e2-869f-00144feabdc0.html; seen: 2015-02-22 19. Regenstreif, G. The looming U.S.-China rivalry over Latin America, Reuters (June 12, 2013). Found: http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/06/12/the-looming-u-s-china-rivalry-over-latin- america/; seen: 2015-04-24 20. Shear, D. M. ir Archibold , C. R. In Latin America, U.S. Focus Shifts From Drug War to Economy, The New York Times, 2013 m. geguţės 4 d. Found: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/05/world/americas/in-latin-america-us-shifts-focus-from-drug- war-to-economy.html?_r=1&; seen: 2013-12-08 21. State of the Union: Latinos Hope President Obama Prioritizes Their Top Interests, Fox News Latino (February 12, 2013). Found: http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2013/02/12/state-union-latinos-hope- president-obama-prioritizes-their-top-interests/; seen: 2013-12-07 22. Stea, C. Latin America Condemns US Espionage at United Nations Security Council, Global Research, August 17, 2013. Found: http://www.globalresearch.ca/latin-america-condemns-us- espionage-at-united-nations-security-council/5346120; seen: 2013-12-02 23. Tiezzi, S. China's Goals in South America, The Diplomat (Jul 18, 2014). Found: http://thediplomat.com/2014/07/chinas-goals-in-south-america/; seen: 2015-02-17

98 24. Tiezzi, S. China's National Security Strategy, The Diplomat (Jan 24, 2015). Found: http://thediplomat.com/2015/01/chinas-national-security-strategy/; seen: 2015-02-27 25. Winter, B. Factbox: U.S.-Brazil relations and business ties, Reuters (March 15, 2011). Found: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/15/us-brazil-obama-ties-idUSTRE72E5SI20110315; seen: 2015-02-25

Reports

1. Armony, A. C. Setting the Agenda: Asia and Latin America in the 21st Century, Center for Latin American Studies, 2012. Found: http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Setting_the_Agenda- _Asia_and_Latin_America_in_the_21st_Century.pdf; seen: 2015-04-24 2. Better Than You Think: Reframing Inter-American Relations, Brookings Policy Brief (March, 2015). Found: http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2015/03/inter-american- relations-feinberg-miller-trinkunas/better-than-you-think--reframing-interamerican-relations.pdf; seen: 2015-02-23 3. Brazil and the United States: Trade Agendas and Challenges of the Bilateral Relationship, Brazil Institute Special Report, 2008. Found: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/brazil.us.tradereport.pdf; seen: 2015-02-23 4. Brazil-U.S. Economic and Commercial Relations, Brazil-U.S. Business Council, 2013. Found: http://www.brazilcouncil.org/sites/default/files/1%20Brazil%20U.S.pdf; seen: 2015-01-06 5. Brazil-U.S. Political Relations, Brazil-U.S. Business Council, 2013. Found: http://www.brazilcouncil.org/sites/default/files/2%20Brazil-U.S.pdf; seen: 2015-01-06 6. Gilbert, S. The U.S. Policy of Democracy Promotion in Latin America, Senior Honor Theses, Paper 148, 2008. Found: http://commons.emich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1147&context=honors; seen: 2015-03-15 7. Global Brazil and U.S.-Brazil Relations, Independent Task Force Report No. 66, Council on Foreign Relations, 2011. Found: http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Brazil_TFR66.pdf; seen: 2015-02-23 8. Hornbeck, J. F. U.S.-Latin America Trade: Recent Trends and Policy Issues, CRS Report for Congress, 2011. Found: http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/98-840_20110208.pdf; seen: 2014-11-14 9. Hornbeck, J. F. US-Latin America Trade and Investment in the 21st Century: What‟s Next for Deepening Integration? Inter-American Dialogue Working Paper, 2014. Found: http://www10.iadb.org/intal/intalcdi/PE/2014/13718.pdf; seen: 2014-11-18 10. Latin America 2014: Economic, legal and political trends, Hunton & Williams. Found: http://www.hunton.com/files/Publication/3c311f96-3546-450c-97ba-

99 5e8709cdb827/Presentation/PublicationAttachment/78dc412f-9f8f-4d4d-828e- 68bbf2f72bea/2014_LatAm_Economic_Trend_Report.pdf; seen: 2015-04-18 11. Madrid, R. L. Indigenous Movements, Democracy, and U.S. Interests in Latin America, Western Hemisphere Security Analysis Center, Paper 26, 2011. Found: http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1025&context=whemsac; seen: 2015-02- 26 12. Meacham, C. and Kalout, H. Brazil‟s Presidential Elections: Expectations for Foreign Policy, A Report of the CSIS Americas Program, 2014. Found: http://csis.org/files/publication/141001_Meacham_BrazilPresElections_Web.pdf; seen: 2015-02-22 13. Mellor, T. Partner and Sogol, B. China‟s Investment in Latin America: Themes, Challenges and Future Trends, Global Infrastructure, 2012. Found: http://www.bingham.com/Publications/Files/2012/01/Chinas-Investments-in-Latin-America- Themes-Challenges-and-Future-Trends; seen: 2015-04-13 14. Meyer, P. J. Brazil: Political and Economic Situation and U.S. Relations, CRS Report, 2014. Found: http://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33456.pdf; seen: 2015-02-25 15. Meyer, P. J. U.S. Foreign Assistance to Latin America and the Caribbean: Recent Trends and FY2015 Appropriations, CRS Report, 2014. Found: http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/231792.pdf; seen: 2014-11-17 16. Noriega, F. R. ir Cárdenas, R. J. An action plan for US policy in the Americas, American Enterprise Institute, 2012. Found: http://www.aei.org/files/2012/12/06/-an-action-plan-for-us-policy-in-the- americas_091631523856.pdf; seen: 2013-12-05 17. O'Neil, Sh. Brazil as an Emerging Power: The View from the United States, SAIIA Policy Briefing, No 16, 2010. Found: http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/5ABEDF10d01.pdf; seen: 2015-01-08 18. Overview of Brookings Policy Brief (March, 2015). Found: http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2015/03/reframing-inter-american-relations; seen: 2015- 02-23 19. Overview on Task Force Report about U.S.-Latin America Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality. Found: http://www.cfr.org/mexico/us-latin-america-relations/p16279; seen: 2013-12-03 20. Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America: An Inter-American Dialogue Policy Report, 2012. Found: http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf; seen: 2013-10-02 21. Roberts, J. M. and Walser, R. Latin America and the Caribbean: A Wish List for 2013. Issue Brief #3817 on Latin America (January 7, 2013), The Heritage Foundation. Found:

100 http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/01/us-foreign-policy-wish-list-for-latin-america-and- the-caribbean-in-2013; seen: 2015-04-18 22. Sullivan, M. P. Latin America and the Caribbean: Key Issues for the 113th Congress, CRS Report, 2014. Found: http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/231778.pdf; seen: 2014-11-12 23. The United States and Brazil: Two perspectives on dealing with partnership and rivalry, Center for American Progress Report, 2009. Found: http://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp- content/uploads/issues/2009/03/pdf/brazil.pdf; seen: 2015-03-11 24. U.S.-Latin America Relations: A New Direction for a New Reality, Council on Foreign Relations, Independent Task Force Report No. 60. Found: http://i.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/LatinAmerica_TF.pdf; seen: 2013-12-02 25. Veiga, P. China's "Second Wave" in South America, Issue Brief (02.09.15), Baker Institute for Public Policy. Found: http://bakerinstitute.org/files/8777/; seen: 2015-04-20

Vocabularies and encyclopedias

1. History of Latina America (Britannica Online Encyclopedia). Found: http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/331694/history-of-Latin-America/; seen: 2013-11-20 2. Latin America definition (Oxford Dictionaries). Found: http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/Latin-America; seen: 2013-11-20 3. Political Realism in International Relations, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, 2013. Found: http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/realism-intl-relations/#TweCenClaRea 4. The definition of word „strategy‟, the Online Oxford Dictionary. Found: http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/strategy?q=strategy

Official websites of institutions

1. 100,000 Strong in the Americas (09/13/13), Releases Pertaining Brazil. The official website of the U.S. State Department. Found: http://www.state.gov/p/wha/rls/fs/2013/214201.htm; seen: 2015-04- 18 2. Brazilian Independence Day (09/06/09), Releases Pertaining Brazil. The official website of the U.S. State Department. Found: http://www.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2009a/09/128678.htm; seen: 2015-04-15 3. Discover diplomacy: US foreign policy goals. Found: http://diplomacy.state.gov/discoverdiplomacy/diplomacy101/issues/170606.htm; seen: 2013-12-06

101 4. Duties of the Secretary of State, U.S. Department of State. Found: http://www.state.gov/secretary/115194.htm; seen: 2013-12-07 5. Elections in Brazil (10/27/14), Releases Pertaining Brazil. The official website of the U.S. State Department. Found: http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2014/10/233396.htm; seen: 2015-04- 16 6. FACT SHEET: The U.S.-Brazil Bilateral Relationship, The White House Office of the Vice President (June 17, 2014). Found: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/06/17/fact- sheet-us-brazil-bilateral-relationship; seen: 2015-02-25 7. Grimmett, F. R. Foreign Policy Roles of the President and Congress. U.S. Department of State, 1999. Found: http://fpc.state.gov/6172.htm; seen: 2013-12-06 8. Kerry, J. Remarks on U.S. Policy in the Western Hemisphere, November 18, 2013. Found: http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2013/11/217680.htm; seen: 2013-12-04 9. Monroe Doctrine (1823), U.S. Department of State Office of the Historian. Found: http://history.state.gov/milestones/1801-1829/monroe; seen: 2015-01-04 10. Preview of President Barack Obama's Meeting With Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (03/13/09), Releases Pertaining Brazil. The official website of the U.S. State Department. Found: http://www.state.gov/p/wha/rls/rm/2009/120337.htm; seen: 2015-04-16 11. Remarks at the 41st Washington Conference on the Americas (05/11/11), Releases Pertaining Brazil. The official website of the U.S. State Department. Found: http://www.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2011/05/163025.htm; seen: 2015-04-16 12. Remarks With Brazilian Foreign Minister Antonio de Aguiar Patriota After Their Meeting (08/13/13), Releases Pertaining Brazil. The official website of the U.S. State Department. Found: http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2013/08/213105.htm; seen: 2015-04-16 13. Remarks With Foreign Minister of Brazil Antonio de Aguiar Patriota Before Their Meeting (05/20/13), Releases Pertaining Brazil. The official website of the U.S. State Department. Found: http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2013/05/209664.htm; seen: 2015-04-16 14. Somanader, T. President Obama's National Security Strategy in 2015: Strong and Sustainable American Leadership (February 06, 2015). Official website of the White House. Found: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2015/02/06/president-obamas-national-security-strategy-2015- strong-and-sustainable-american-lea; seen: 2015-02-24 15. Strengthening the U.S.-Brazil Economic Relationship, the White House Office of the Press Secretary (March 19, 2011). Found: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/uploads/Strengthening_the_US- Brazil_Economic_Relationship.pdf; seen: 2015-02-25

102 16. Valenzuela, A. U.S.-Latin American Relations: A Look Ahead, Remarks Pertaining to Western Hemisphere Affairs, 2011. Found: http://www.state.gov/p/wha/rls/rm/2011/154105.htm; seen: 2013-12-04

Other resources

1. China, CELAC, and the State of China-Latin America Relations, Inter-American Dialogue (January 8, 2015). Found: http://chinaandlatinamerica.com/2015/01/08/china-celac-and-the-state-of-china- latin-america-relations/; seen: 2015-04-23 2. China-Latin America Finance Database, Inter-American Dialogue. Found: http://www.thedialogue.org/map_list; seen: 2015-04-13 3. China's Strategic Engagement with Latin America, Inter-American Dialogue (January 13, 2014). Found: http://chinaandlatinamerica.com/2014/01/13/chinas-strategic-engagement-in-latin-america/; seen: 2015-03-02 4. Hakim, P. and Myers, M. China and Latin America in 2014: Deepening Relations, China Policy Review, January 12, 2015. Found: http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3719; seen: 2015-04-20 5. How U.S. Foreign Policy is made, Foreign Policy Association, 2011. Found: http://www.fpa.org/features/index.cfm?act=feature&announcement_id=45&show_sidebar=0; seen: 2013-12-06 6. Irgil, E. Latinos‟ Views on U.S. Foreign Policy, Inter-American Dialogue, Feb 24, 2015. Found: http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3739&s; seen: 2015-04-20 7. Jackobson, L. Administration engages Latin America, but not with a special envoy, The Obameter, 2011. Found: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/obameter/promise/220/reinstate-special- envoy-for-the-americas/; seen: 2013-12-05 8. Kenji, O. Security, 2003. Found: http://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/security 9. Kotschwar, B. and Schott, J. J. The Next Big Thing? The Trans-Pacific Partnership & Latin America, Americas Quarterly, 2013. Found: http://americasquarterly.org/next-big-thing-trans- pacific-partnership; seen: 2014-11-12 10. Latin America, after Chávez and the US? Future Foreign Policy, May 9, 2013. Found: http://www.futureforeignpolicy.com/latin-america-after-chavez-and-the-us/; seen: 2013-11-25 11. Lindegren, R. Obama Forges Closer Ties with Latin America, International Relations Online Blog, July 1st, 2013. Found: http://ironline.american.edu/obama-forges-closer-ties-with-latin-america/; seen: 2013-12-07

103 12. National interest and the tools of foreign policy: a lesson plan for teachers, Close Up Foundation. Found: https://www.closeup.org/lib/National%20Interest%20Foreign%20Policy%20Lesson%20Planvfinal. pdf; seen: 2015-01-05 13. On the China-Mexico Rail Deal, Inter-American Dialogue (November 11, 2014). Found: http://chinaandlatinamerica.com/2014/11/11/on-the-china-mexico-rail-deal/; seen: 2015-04-22 14. Siega, V. What is China's interest in Latin America? International Viewpoint online magazine (June 7, 2010). Found: http://www.internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?article1883; seen: 2015-03-01 15. The Rise of China – a special issue of the Revista Brasileira de Politíca Internacional. SciELO in Perspective, 2014. Found: http://blog.scielo.org/en/2014/11/26/the-rise-of-china-a-special-issue-of- the-revista-brasileira-de-politica-internacional/; seen: 2015-04-10 16. The strategic context: foreign policy strategy and the essence of choice, Chapter Review, Found: http://www.wwnorton.com/college/polisci/american-foreign-policy4/ch/01/review.aspx US and China: The Fight for Latin America, World Policy Blog (June 24, 2013). Found: http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2013/06/24/us-and-china-fight-latin-america; seen: 2015-04-24

104 ANNEXES

Annex No. 1. Handout: National Interest.

National Interest Breakdown Chart: A Partial List Things that may be essential to the survival and wellbeing of the nation as a whole.

Security Interests include such Economic Interests Ideological Interests Include things as: include such things as: such things as:

 protecting national borders  protecting and/or promot-  protecting and/or  ensuring the safety of citizens ing an adequate promoting a just/moral way from harm by foreign enemies standard of living for of life  protecting allies domestic citizens  protecting and/or  protecting areas of military  protecting and/or promoting a just/moral importance (military supply promoting adequate system of politics, law, and routes, allies that host military levels of domestic government bases, etc.) employment  protecting and/or  protecting bases and sources of  ensuring economic promoting a just/moral national power development and growth economic system  preventing foreign intrusions into  establishing trade  protecting and/or your national territorial regions relations with other promoting the cultural  maintaining military power and nations and/or religious values of a capacity to project power where  protecting economic nation or a people and as needed to protect national investment abroad and  advancing and protecting a sovereignty and security interests at home universal conception of  maintaining knowledge regarding  protecting the means freedom, justice, progress potential threats to national and routes of trade and/or human dignity security  protecting the competive- ness of key domestic industries  maintaining economic power to ensure economic self- determination

Source: National interest and the tools of foreign policy: a lesson plan for teachers, Close Up Foundation. P. 7. Found: https://www.closeup.org/lib/National%20Interest%20Foreign%20Policy%20Lesson%20Planvfinal.pdf

105 Annex No. 2. US Direction of Merchandise Trade, 2000 and 2012.

Source: Hornbeck, J. F. US-Latin America Trade and Investment in the 21st Century: What‟s Next for Deepening Integration? Inter-American Dialogue Working Paper, 2014. P. 3. Found: http://www10.iadb.org/intal/intalcdi/PE/2014/13718.pdf

Annex No. 3. US-Latin America and Caribbean Merchandise Trade, 2000-2012.

Source: Hornbeck, J. F. US-Latin America Trade and Investment in the 21st Century: What‟s Next for Deepening Integration? Inter-American Dialogue Working Paper, 2014. P. 4. Found: http://www10.iadb.org/intal/intalcdi/PE/2014/13718.pdf

106

Annex No. 4. US Merchandise Exports to Latin America and the Caribbean, 2000-2012.

Source: Hornbeck, J. F. US-Latin America Trade and Investment in the 21st Century: What‟s Next for Deepening Integration? Inter-American Dialogue Working Paper, 2014. P. 4. Found: http://www10.iadb.org/intal/intalcdi/PE/2014/13718.pdf

107 Annex No. 5. US Merchandise Imports from Latin America and the Caribbean, 2000-2012.

Source: Hornbeck, J. F. US-Latin America Trade and Investment in the 21st Century: What‟s Next for Deepening Integration? Inter-American Dialogue Working Paper, 2014. P. 5. Found: http://www10.iadb.org/intal/intalcdi/PE/2014/13718.pdf

108 Annex No. 6. US-LAC Foreign Direct Investment, 2000-2012*.

Source: Hornbeck, J. F. US-Latin America Trade and Investment in the 21st Century: What‟s Next for Deepening Integration? Inter-American Dialogue Working Paper, 2014. P. 8. Found: http://www10.iadb.org/intal/intalcdi/PE/2014/13718.pdf

109 Annex No. 7. U.S. Trade with Brazil: 2004-2013.

Source: Meyer, P. J. Brazil: Political and Economic Situation and U.S. Relations, CRS Report, 2014. P. 14. Found: http://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33456.pdf

Annex No. 8. U.S. Oil Trade with Brazil 2004-2013.

Source: Meyer, P. J. Brazil: Political and Economic Situation and U.S. Relations, CRS Report, 2014. P. 19. Found: http://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33456.pdf

110 Annex No. 9. Important events in the bilateral US-Brazil agenda. Year Important events 2009 - President Barack Obama's had a meeting with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (03/14/09) - U.S.-Brazil signed Joint Action Plan on Racial and Ethnic Equality (03/18/09) - Brazil celebrated its 187th Independence Day (09/06/09) 2010 - Secretary of State Hilary Clinton had a meeting with Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Luiz Nunes Amorim and both countries signed several agreements (e.g. “Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation Regarding Climate Change” and “Memorandum of Understanding for the Advancement of Women” and “Memorandum of Understanding for the Implementation of Technical Cooperation Activities in Third Countries,”) (03/03/10) - U.S.- Brazil signed a Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) (04/12/10) - Elections took place in Brazil and Dilma Rousseff was elected as president of this country (11/01/10) 2011 - The 41st Washington Conference on the Americas (05/11/11) - Remarks at the Open Government Partnership High-Level Meeting (07/12/11) - Information was provided about the growing demand for U.S. visas in China and Brazil (11/08/11) 2012 - 2012 were exceptional in terms of intensity, various visits and events - Numerous documents have been adopted on cooperation in Education Partnership for the 21st Century, Cooperation for Social Inclusion, Health Cooperation, Space Cooperation, Trilateral Cooperation (04/09/12) - A conference about the U.S.-Brazil Partnership for the 21st Century was organized (04/09/12) - Brazil-US Global Partnership Dialogue (GDP) initiative was launched (04/18/12) - a pilot program "Jobs Diplomacy" was launched to promote America's economic renewal (04/18/12) 2013 - Secretary of State John Kerry met with Brazilian Foreign Minister Antonio de Aguiar Patriota (08/13/13) - the president B. Obama started an initiative of academic mobility "100,000 Strong in the Americas" (09/13/13) - U.S.-Brazil started cooperation on Fulbright NEXUS program on climate change (12/19/13) 2014 - Dilma Roussef was reelected as the president of Brazil for a second term (10/27/14) Source: Prepared by analyzing various events betwen the US and Brazil in the period of 2009-2014. Releases Pertaining Colombia, the U.S. State Department official website. Found: http://www.state.gov/p/wha/ci/co/rls/

111 Annex No. 10. Economic Impacts of China on Other Developing Countries.

Source: Jenkins, R. (2012), China and Brazil: Economic Impacts of a Growing Relationship, Journal of Current Chinese Affairs, 41, 1. P. 24. Found: https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/40406/1/jcca_2012_01_Jenkins_Brazil_A5.pdf

112 Annex No. 11. Information transcribed from two interviews.

ATLIKTI INTERVIU

Questions

Dear Sir/Madam,

I am Gediminas Laskauskas, a second year student of Diplomacy and International Relations MA programme in Vytautas Magnus University (Lithuania). Currently I am preparing a final master thesis on topic "The U.S. response to the development of China's influence in Latin America: cases of Mexico, Brazil and Colombia". For my research part I need some practical information about the recent events and developments of relations between these states from experts and members of diplomatic corps. Therefore, I have decided to contact you and kindly ask for help to answer the following questions:

1. What kind of interests, in your opinion, does the US have in Latin America?

2. Does the US hold strong influence in Latin America? Is the rivalry over this region noticeable between the US and China? Looking to future tendencies, is it likely that competition will increase?

3. What are, in your view, the main reasons that affect and shape the US foreign policy towards Latin America? Is it historical context, the importance of region for the US or other factors?

4. How could you evaluate the general actions by the US in Latin America? Can the US foreign policy be called successful in pursuing its interests?

5. How important is the role by US president B. Obama in solving regional problems, strengthening Hemispheric cooperation? In what ways does his presidency contribute to the improvement of US- Latin American relations?

6. What are the core interests by China in Latin America? Do the methods used by China differ from the ones that US applies for relations with Latin American states?

7. From three Latin American states - Brazil, Mexico and Colombia with which country does the US develop relationship most notably?

8. What kind of particular events in the period of year 2009-2015 show the context and features of relations between the US and Brazil, Mexico and Colombia?

9. Could you describe the relationship between the US and Brazil, Mexico and Colombia in political, economic and security fields?

Thank you very much for help and response. Should you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me.

Yours faithfully, Gediminas Laskauskas, Vytautas Magnus University Faculty of Political Science and Diplomacy Email: [email protected]

113 Phone number: +37068128171

Pirmas interviu. ATSAKYMAI I INTERVIU KLAUSIMYNA Dear Mr. Laskauskas,

US interests in Latin America have been mainly corporate for many, many decades. Consequently, nationalization, whether called fascism or socialism by the corporate interests and their political allies, has been the great enemy.

The US has strong influence in Latin America. There is economic rivalry between he US and China and it will increase, provided the Chinese economy does not implode.

US actions in Latin America are driven by US corporate investments and intentions.

The willingness of the US to link up with oppressive governments in Latin America is recurrent . Its clumsiness and brutality reflects a sense of religious and racial superiority. As a result, the region welcomes outside competitors to the US and has already begun small-scale switches from dollar- based trade to yuan-based trade.

The Obama administration seems to have failed to significantly improve US relations with Latin America and appears to be fostering a coup in Latin America.

China, so far, has been willing to invest and trade without overtly strong arming its trade partners--it has done so covertly. China mostly wants to sell industrial goods and obtain raw materials. It has not been an altogether reliable trade partner or investment partner--more talk than follow through.

US --Mexico relations are the most important US relations with Latin America.

Good luck with your work.

Thomas A Breslin Professor, Politics and International Relations Florida International University Miami FL

Antras interviu.

INTERVIU TRANSKRIBAVIMAS

Atlikimo data: 2015 m. kovo 30 d.

Respondentas: Dr. Paul Bonicelli from Regent University, a student of Henry Kissinger, had an extensive academic and practical career. He is a former assistant administrator for the United States Agency for International Development's (USAID) Bureau of Latin America and the Caribbean (he worked in president G. W. Bush administration), also he was an official delegate to the United Nations General Assembly

114 Interviu atliktas naudojant programą Skype vaizdo pokalbio funkciją. Svarbu paţymėti, kad kai kurių atlikto interviu vietų nepavyko transkribuoti dėl prastos garso kokybės ar kitų techninių kliūčių. Tos vietos tekste paţymėtos laiko intarpais arba kitais ţenklais.

TEKSTAS

Gediminas Laskauskas: Good morning, Sir.

Dr. Paul Bonicelli: Good morning, how are you?

Gediminas Laskauskas: Im fine thank you.

Dr. Paul Bonicelli: Can you see me?

Gediminas Laskauskas: Yeah I do

Dr. Paul Bonicelli: Okay tell me how to say your first name

Gediminas Laskauskas: Gediminas

Dr. Paul Bonicelli: Gediminas

Gediminas Laskauskas: Yes alright

Gediminas Laskauskas: Okay, nice to meet you

Dr. Paul Bonicelli: How did you hear about me?

Gediminas Laskauskas: Well I read some... I've been looking for experts and I thought that particularly your work about USAID would be very interesting to hear insights from you

Dr. Paul Bonicelli: Okay and which university are you in? at

Gediminas Laskauskas: Vytautas Magnus University

Dr. Paul Bonicelli: Okay, i hope to visit your country one day

Gediminas Laskauskas: You should definitely

Dr. Paul Bonicelli: Well I know that now there is a paralyze time and I don't have enough confidence greatest confidence in the current administration of the United States I hope you could all hold out for a 20 months and hopefully there will be a new president that will take much more seriously out NATO commitments and just in general our commitment to people who want to be free.

Gediminas Laskauskas: Yeah that is true and that's why i wanted to talk with you with you, because you belong to president Bush administration so for me it's very interesting to hear insights from critical perspective in a way. yeah. so

Dr. Paul Bonicelli: Good. okay

So yeah. I thought i could ask more or less the same questions is that okay for you or no?

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Dr. Paul Bonicelli: absolutely that's fine

Gediminas Laskauskas: okay perfect

1 KLAUSIMAS

Gediminas Laskauskas: So basically i wanted to know what kind of interests in your opinion does the united states have in Latin America? i mean what are the pillars on which its policy rests towards this region?

Dr. Paul Bonicelli: mm I have few answers. if you look at what the US interests are in Latin America from the perspective of a political scientist, from a perspective of realist or an idealist the interests are great. it is our neighborhood this is a hemisphere we live in. and you don't need to look at Monroe doctrine anything else, it's just a geographic fact. however those administrations republican and democrats conservative liberal we never do pay attention even though it is our interest we do not treat it though it is our important interest. when things are good and peaceful we ignore it when things are really ugly we are not prepared to engage the way we should. i can tell you that as Hugo Chavez rose to power we did not pay attention. i was working at the congress at that time and Bill Clinton was president at that time and we raised a lot of alarms from a congress about the fact this person not a democrat he would be demand (???) and years later I'm in Bush administration I'm working with some of the same state department officials and they were readily admitting that they are dealing with this terrible problem. and you know it didn't have to be this way. people like Hugo Chavez take advantage of great powers that aren't paying attention to the international system 3:47 one of the reasons that Latin America is such an important for the US interests. it is because of commercial ties, family ties, religious ties and general cultural ties. we forget the incredible influence the united states has had on every country in the hemisphere. because particularly for the united states it is all of the emigrants and 4:21 and all of the businesses from that way and massive amount of religious interconnectedness. you know the protestant even gelico 4:33 movement has been so tremendously in Latin America that's what i did my dissertation on. and it's more protestant than catholic although the catholic church is strong yeah but it's a penicostal 4:48 movement among the Catholics that makes it even stronger and that's American phenomenon that's not really roman phenomenon. so its extremely important and one we don't pay enough attention. and I'll say one last thing the intensity of concern between France and its former colonies in Africa is sometimes greater than the intensity of concern the united states has for countries it never colonized but just had you know friendly supportive relationships with. so it's something we had. i guess I'll say one more thing on that question. i believe if 9/11 had not happened George Bush would have had a much closer relationship and more cooperation with Latin America. he truly wanted that as a person he had handle made it very.

Gediminas Laskauskas: yeah i believe that those wars distracted from this region

2 KLAUSIMAS

Gediminas Laskauskas: My second question was - do you believe, could you state that the US has strong influence in this region. and is it possible to say that there is a rivalry some kind of between the US and China because Chinas influence has been growing in the last decade. and is it likely that the competition will increase at some point?

Dr. Paul Bonicelli: Yes i think. i do think that the united states has tremendous influence for those reasons i mentioned before. one another bit of influence is the region is well aware as it the whole world when the sovereignty of any nation state is threatened. even one that we even barely even can

116 find it on the map in the united states. it is only the united states that will come to rescue. the Europeans will not, the united nations will not, everyone know that the international emergency phone number is the united states. Latin America knows that better than anybody. and so the bill of the united states help is obvious and that's why people treated that way. however, the Chinese and i would add the Iranians. you may have been reading about the influence of the Iranians in certain Latin American countries particularly Venezuela, probably Ecuador and that has to do with i guess i would use my former boss's term the "Axis of Evil". the Iranians don't need in Latin America so much as they want to have an influence in our neighborhood, but China is different. China is a country that some of my conservative friends think China is trying to defeat us and run the world. I'm sure there is an element of that in the Chinese military and political circles. but more than anything China is a gigantic country full of people that are hungry and need things and it does not have enough natural resources to supply itself. and it is looking for arrangements in the developing world where it can have access to energy, access to food stuffs that kind of thing. and so i think that China has a big interests. and the other interest they have is diplomatic. they have a final ... 8:18 with Taiwan and that is to be another province of Peoples Republic of China and to get that one way to do is to have commercial relations that support your diplomatic maneuvers at the united nations and other world bodies. and so the Chinese has been very adept at working with governments in the region. learning from the Taiwan example your are probably aware that Taiwan for a long time has had relationships in Latin America its been losing some of them over the years as they switched over to mainland China but yeah China has been very smart. i think in the end though the united states paid attention to this region and 9:13 and relationships 9:18 particularly those that are the leaders of Latin America like the united states know good and well that the Chinese government has no positive interest in their country. they don't want to see them be strong democracies, they see them only as economic resources and diplomatic resources. so if we did our job better we had a fewer of those countries wanting to get closer to China. you probably seen there are a number of African countries for example where it is pretty widespread opposition to the role China is playing in their countries, because they know that they are treated as just a place to get resources and work for labor to death.

Gediminas Laskauskas: to some extent it is the same with Brazil. China cooperates a lot and now it sees the consequences of that relation.

3 KLAUSIMAS

Gediminas Laskauskas: So basically getting back to the united states position you have mentioned some of the main reasons what shapes its foreign policy and historical context is very important, the geographic proximity and other factors. i want to ask you how could you evaluate the general actions by the United states in Latin America. can this foreign policy be called successful in pursuing its interests or not?

Dr. Paul Bonicelli: i think would answer that (long pause) it has not been successful and probably in overall for the Bush administration as well in a sense that we have not drawn closer together, we have not made it possible for for example several countries of the region feel bold enough to reach out to the Castro brothers and to try to have normal relations and treat Cuba normally which in bolden (???) president Obama even furthered recently there are you know when you judge these things, when you have countries that do not favor us, do not think that we are positive influence and we all know that (???) that's been a part of that. I think there are two reasons for that - one, we haven't paid attention well we haven't done the work of drawing ourselves (???) closer we haven't had some of our strongest diplomats in position at the state department some of the best ambassadors to make those connections and keep things strong, but. also we had a war on terrorism that has been going on for years and has taken our attention away from the region. but also I think we have not stood up to the troublemakers in the region. you know before during Reagan

117 administration for example if you were an anti-US leader whether you are on the left or on the right you knew the united states opposed you everyone knew that we opposed you. we offered no accommodation. and that has not been the case especially in the Obama administration but also a part of Bush administration. i don't think that in last couple of years we were tough 12:52 (???) and calling it up. (???) there has been such a focus on terrorism and the Iraq war in the Afghanistan. but this administration, the Obama administration has tolerated verbal, diplomatic, another kinds of attacks on the united states without answering and i think that has been a mistake.

4 KLAUSIMAS

Gediminas Laskauskas: So i don't know how maybe you could evaluate the current presidents figure and role in solving regional problems, strengthening hemispheric cooperation and how does his presidency contribute to the improvement of US-Latin American relations?

Dr. Paul Bonicelli: I think this presidencies has been one of the worst presidencies in our history for relations with Latin America, precisely because he reaches out to the wrong people to make them feel like they're a welcome partner in building hemispheric security and peace and he alienates all the good guys. for example allowing Chavez to go on for years opposing us publicly, making outrageously violent statements and fomenting unrest and anti-Americanism in other countries has been a huge mistake. and i think the president did that not because he thought that was good for the US i think it's like everything else in foreign policy. the president doesn't want foreign policy to bother his domestic goals. he had a very clear purpose to change the united states domestically, economically and socially, and the only foreign policy issue he has ever cared is to make a deal with Iran so that Iran could have a place in power in the Middle East. Because he thought that better, the president thinks the less the US is involved in shaping world affairs the better. and logic told him Iranians needed to have more influence. i think of course that's flawed and foolish. but I believe that's why the presidents people never focused on Latin America, because that would be paying attention to problems he did not acknowledged. the downside of these two is the democratic opposition in places like Nicaragua, it's our friends in Salvador, our friends in Colombia, our friends all these places that just like Saudi's and Jordanians and the Egyptians they throw their hands up and say who sorry you are? i mean i thought it was clear there are people who are for the US and who against the US, but you seemed to act like none of that matters. so that's what I think it's been very damaging and I think the next president which of course personally I hope is a republican is going to go in and shore up all those relationships based on commerce, based on culture, based on religion, based on family ties and to say here is the model of hemisphere that we think is the best. its democracy, its Catholicism, its close relationship. if you want to be a part of that the united states is ready to be supportive of anyone who wants to. if you don't want to businesses usually is over. united states will oppose those who oppose us.

5 KLAUSIMAS

Gediminas Laskauskas: Hm. I see. you have mentioned Hugo Chavez, i know and Cuba case and quite successful example. I don't know how does the fact that Hugo Chavez has passed away in 2013 and there have been some expectations that relations will be get closer and now Cuba as some even say it's a final issue for regional security and i want to ask how do you think these two factors are favorable for the US pursuing its interests or not?

Dr. Paul Bonicelli: I have always thought once Chavez came to power and revealed who his true self that things in Venezuela will get much worse before they get better and that includes unfortunately, Hugo Chavez dead makes is it worse, because Nicolas Maduro is not a skilled politician he is a union leader, you know leader of a bus drivers. he had zero experience with anything with other than that. so that means strong armament tactics, revolutionary politics. that's

118 all he knows. i don't know how intelligence. he doesn't have the support of leaders. there are those willing him to be removed. and so that means everything he does will get worse. he knows only one thing - rally people rally his base against external threat of the United States. so i think it will gets worse before it gets better. as far as Cuba and by the way Venezuela's democratic opposition has finally grown up. in the last five years these folks who were before nothing but elite to cause a lot of their own problems by ignoring their the need for real democracy have finally begun to improve, to mature. there are leaders like Leopoldo Lopez and Capriles who love their country and they truly want democratic republic Venezuela. and their movement is not going to go away. In Cuba the president i understand the desire to have normal relations with Cuba. the opponents of Castro have always wanted normal relations with Cuba. the problem has always been for more than 50 years a regime that persecutes its political opposition, that beats up women who walk to church and support their husbands and their sons and their brothers. and the president demonstrated that even he is a horrible negotiator which i think they are pretty bad negotiators, but also they are not interested in anything except proclaiming we achieved a deal, we achieved rapprochement. well, anybody can achieve a deal or rapprochement with a dictator if you are willing to say that you don't have to change, you don't have to do anything that we want you to do, we'll do anything you want us to do and now we have a deal. and that is not bad just for the united states. this is really bad for all the people of the region and world who believed that human being should live in freedom, in dignity, and should be able to choose their leaders and its working economy whether they want fair, I'll add one thing. the president could have made his rapprochement with Cuba a little more power to pull if he had at least said - we won't insist on democracy, we won't insist you release political prisoners, we won't insist you (???) but at least allow every Cuban to participate in the economy freely. and he did not do that. nothing have changed in the way economy works in Cuba. either you told them that the regime are you have to use worthless Cuban pace (???) and that means economy is still a communist economy.

6 KLAUSIMAS

Gediminas Laskauskas: In my research part I focus also on the three specific cases - Brazil, Mexico and Colombia. So I wanted to ask from theses state with which country does the US develop relationship the most in your opinion?

Dr. Paul Bonicelli: I think because of the geographic position there is no option except Mexico. I wrote a column about Peña Nieto when he came to power trying to encourage some of my more conservative friends. give a guy a chance. every part grows and changes and the pre (???) has certainly grown up and changed and learned its lessons. it still will take time for it to mature fully as a democratic party particularly in the various states of Mexico, but give him a chance. Because there are far too much that unites Mexico and the United states than divides it. and there is no reason why we cannot have a better relationship with one million proofs (???) one million cooperate. especially when the united states would make it fundamentally clear once what out immigration policy is which i believe should be number 1. secure border number 2 the united states immigration reflects the needs and interests of the united states, that's the way every country including Mexico operates its immigration policy with Guatemala. That is we let in labor as we need those labors and what we do know provide permanent or citizenship to anybody we don't think is in our interest. even though there would be Mexicans who don't like it, at least it would establish firmly what that is and you can stop this argument over and over. Colombia i think after Mexico is the most important country in Latin America. that is it has been pro-US ally for years and because Colombian people have demonstrated their commitment to democracy, to freedom and capitalism more than any country in some ways. they held on through a 45 year war and even now under president that i think is making mistake by letting Havana host peace talks, they still manage to elect their leaders and maintain their democratic standing. so we need to be supportive in their (???) 22:59 and that goes back to Venezuela, The United States under B. Obama made it look like

119 we kind buy balance but for Colombia and Venezuela, i think we should be very clear - Colombia is a model for the future. As to Brazil, i had a lot of high hoped during Bush administration, because we had a leftist who came into power Silva. who had shown that had grown up and now we have with Rousseff someone who doesn't appear to be able to i don't think she's quite as capable as he was combined with the fact that we've seen a "Brazilian miracle economy" is like every other miracle that fades. it's mostly based on commodities, it's based on time when commodity prices are good and once those times began to change, they began to suffer and the number one reason why that is hurting Brazil so much, it's because of the corruption and because of there is not a nation why a commitment to a free market and to a you open and transparent activity if they can fix that problem there is no reason why Brazil can be fabulously wealthy and prosperous certainly compared to as it is now. And to maintain their leftist credentials they keep favoring Venezuela and Cuba and it's just foolishness. You know foreign policy predicated on whatever the US is for we are against is never gonna be a successful one.

7 KLAUSIMAS

Gediminas Laskauskas: Mh, I see. Maybe you could name some kind of particular events from I would say I focus on starting the presidency of Obama, from 2009 to 2015, up to the recent times. Maybe you can name some particular events in the relationship with Brazil, Mexico and Colombia that are very important for the future of the relations in political, economical or security fields. If you think of that.

Dr. Paul Bonicelli: Well, I guess I think I would what I would point to is a lack of activity, a lack of interest. For example, I think that it would have been smart for the president after a years of Bush where everyone said president Bush did not pay enough attention, you know, even if they gave him excuse of terrorism and more it would have been very smart for president Obama to name a high level envoy. Someone that paid attention to these issues and regularly brought it up before him, made sure that there regional summits and meetings and activities that would show our concern, show our interest picking an initiative of two to focus on I would pick on security as well as something commercial, something economic. You know I worked USAID I cared about education for goals and clean water and all that, but those things are secondary to the kinds of things that bring about prosperity and stability, because at the end of the day the United States does not want provide foreign assistance forever. Some people do I guess, but most of don't. We want to help countries become independent so that they dont need other people. And the president did none of those things. Now there is a reason why he wasnt interested in foreign policy he did not want to focus on anything like that, he did posture of the united states should not be more involved, it should be less involved. he sat back in hope that Brazil would take the leader something like that. and the last thing he would be focused on is security. you know the last we had an administration that tried to have a serious integration of military was probably the Reagan administration, you know serious effort among diplomats appointed by the president of the united states to say how do we coordinate our activities so that people understand may be not a NATO here but this region will be united in preventing external threats from coming to bear. No one does that the Obama administration certainly didn't do that and I think that's a mistake.

8 KLAUSIMAS

Gediminas Laskauskas: Mhm. I would say maybe one of the last questions - what kind of possibilities do you see for cooperation over various issues in international, regional organizations and do various initiatives for assistance, development for example you have worked in USAID lead to the wanted outcomes or it doesn't.

120 Dr. Paul Bonicelli: You are breaking up a little bit is the question based on what kinds of initiatives in the next 20 months could happen in the international form.

Gediminas Laskauskas: Well recently the US is promoting for example Brazil's stance in the international more, giving it more leadership and so on, for example for other countries there are other aspects and it raises a lot of initiatives like Plan Colombia, like various issues. So what do you see the perspectives for regional and international cooperation as well? Not only on bilateral basis, but in regional and international level.

Dr. Paul Bonicelli: Yeah. I dont see any prospect for there to be anything significant other than the president ignoring the region, because he ignores policy on the most part. and whenever Brazil or someone raises their hand and says we want to have a stronger role in the IMF or we want that seat in the Security Council whatever the Obama administration is likely to be supportive, because that looks like were diminishing the US and raising some another power I think its theatrics, i don't they are serious about that. and of course it is contrary to my view, which is the president should have and it is too late for him now, but the president of the United States should have a very clear set of principles by which he thinks the hemisphere up to come together. and then you say if you like that you can be a part of what we're doing and well be a part of what you are doing. if you don't like that then as far as we are concerned you are shut out, were not interested in cooperation, cooperate with a government like Cuba, a government like Maduro's, Like Careas, this is impossible. So I don't think you will see more than theatrics. And if i would be Brazil i would push as hard as i could to do those things, because the united states will be likely helpful in that, but it won't be in a lot i think i don't think.

9 KLAUSIMAS

Gediminas Laskauskas: Mh, I see. And in general there are some authors that claim that the US foreign policy towards Latin America have been along realism line. What kind of theory do you think would explain the US relations with Latin America? Is it more liberalism, based on prosperity, I don't know, maybe you could explain is it more along realism or liberalism or other aspects.

Dr. Paul Bonicelli: I am student of a Henry Kissinger and i think his book Diplomacy explains well the role that the United States plays in the world which is that combination of our idealism and realism. The nature of the United States is that it cannot be anything other than idealistic in the way it looks at the world, basic principles international law that kind of thing. The same token the way it works, because we are powerful, because of our position geographic and otherwise in the world, we have to accept realism as the final arbiter and i think we dealt with Latin America the same way. Wherever we can practice idealism we have, but at the end of the day when the stakes are high then the United States is gonna act as any other power - defend its sovereignty, defend its interests and join coalitions, balance power, whatever is necessary for our security interests. there are presidents that take longer to 31:44 like Carter, like Obama, but at the end of the day they line up the way they should. and i think that's common around the world for us.

Gediminas Laskauskas: So basically these were the questions that i wanted to ask you. I really wanted to thank you for devoting your precious time and willingness to help me I really appreciate that.

Dr. Paul Bonicelli: You are very welcome, I am happy to do it and if you wanna follow up I will be happy to do that

Gediminas Laskauskas: Okay, thank you very much. Have a nice day

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Dr. Paul Bonicelli: Alright.

Gediminas Laskauskas: Thank you

Dr. Paul Bonicelli: Buy.

122