Unhappy New Year

NOT FOR PUBLICATION WITHOUT WRITER'S CONSENT

INSTITUTE OF CURRENT WORLD AFFAIRS BSg-24 "Hoe To" Pil Creek, Feock Truro, England Unhapy New Year Jnury I0, 1981 Mr. Peter Bird Martin Institute of Current World Affairs Wheelock House 4 West Wheelock Street Hanover, New Hmpshire 03755 Der Peter,

1980 was bad 2-ear for West Africa. Coups overturned govern- ments in three countries, rumors of coups unsettled leders in several other ntions. Drought continued to plague the economies of the sehelian countries, while inflation and rising oil prices put II West African ntionl budgets, with the exception of Nigeria's, into the red. Politically, Ii is not glooms,. Democracy. continued its come- back in two former British colonies, while two fr&ncophone states dealt with bhe sensitive question of succession in their autocratic civilian governments. Economic decy in most of the region, however, mas spoil chances for political improvements. This survey of the past year begins with the four Countries I visited in 1980--Senegal, The Gambit, Sierr Leone and Liberia--and concludes with the four countries on my itinerary for 1981--Ivory Coast, Ghana, Guinea and Nigeria. Senegalese President Leopold Senghor at "[4 set wht many hope will be a precedent for African leders by resigning. Although he groomed his successor, Abdou Diouf, in the role of prime minister, Senghor surprised people with the suddenness of his withdrawal. He announced his pl&ns only a few months before stepping down December 31. He has removed himself completely from tae political scene, resigning his post as secretrs-generl of the Parti Socialist nd hs said he will devote his remaining years to poetry. With a'home in France and French wife, he my not spend much time in his native land. Sengior left Diouf with country in the worst shape of its twent years of indep@ndence. Again lst year, rain_&ll was erratic and insufficient, reducing grain yields and livestock herds. The peanut crop, the bsis of Senegal's agricultural nd industril economies, has fa'len to less than half of normal production. More than ever, Senegal depends oll France's largesse for survival. Economic weakness has eroded the government's polltical base in the peanut-growing areas. Angered bjz low prices as well as corrup- tion and mismanage,,ent in the government's produce-marketing agency, some farmers have refused to grow peanuts and have returned to sub- sistence agriculture. In this atmosphere of mistrust and insecurity, political opposi- tion parties legal and illegal are demanding a role in the govern-

Borden (uinn is an Overseas Journalism Fellow of the Institute studing colonial influences on West African nations. BS-24 -2.- r, en%. Senegal's political stabilitj in 98 may depend on Diouf's wil!ingness nd ability to answer these demands. The Gambia Iso faces another bleak economic year. The country's economy depends on peanuts and tourists. As n neigh- boring Senega, l, the penut crop suffered Item adverse weather con- ditions. Tourists, with less money %o spend, have discovered resorts in southern Europe re cheaper and better run %hen hoels in Africa. The number of tourists visiting The (smbia fell in 1950 and early reports of this winter's tourist season indicate a fur%her drop in 1981. Last year The Oambia's political stability was shaken for the first time since independence when the commander of the country's aramiliary police force was murdered by one of his men. In this peaceful countrs the effect on the populace was traumatic. Soon after the nurder, Senegalese soldiers appeared in the capital guarding key installations. Rumors .,f a coup attempt were later denied by President Sir Dawda Jawara, but he did accuse Libya's Col. Gadafy of training Gambians %0 overthrow the government, The Gambian president also banned two leftist political groups, claiming they sought to subver the democratic process. Although Jawara's explanation of events has not been completely satisfactory-, the arrival of the Sene- gaiese troops may have been only an overreaction to events. By the end of the year, The Gambia seemed calm and relaxed once again. Such was not the case in Sierra Leone. That country is in tur- moil and the possibility of a coup is on everyone's mind. President Siaka Stevens, conservatively said to be 75, may retire when his term s chairman of the Organization of African Unity ends in July. Unlike Senghor, he has not designated a successor. The most likely candidate, the first vice president, has just gone on indefinite leave from his duties. The oficial explanation is ill health, and he is known to have needed extensive medical attention since a 977 car accident. However, the suspicion remains that Stevens punished his deputy for ,ishandling a student protest over a teachers' strike at the national university, unnecessaril putting the government in confrontation with he students. No heir to Stevens' rule is now apparent. The second vice president has lost support in his home constituency and Seems incapable of leadin a country that has been split in two by tribalism since independence. Sierra Leone's economic outlook is dismal, and unlike its nor- thern neighbors it can't use the weather as an excuse. Bad planning, misms.nagemen% and corruption are responsible for many of the coun- %r,sr's economic problems During t, he retr, Stevens raised %he sala- ries of public emploes and other -ages are supposed to follow suit. Aitemp/s a% price control %o keep the raises from merely fueling fur- %her infl%ion have not been successful. The result of %he govern- ,neni action will probbl be . greater disparit in %he, earnings of r.ich and poor, and harder imes for those a% the lower en of %he scale. SLevens seems %o be aware %h&t in light of the worsening econ- omr, he cano% let %he political situation remain as it is. A% year's end, he shook up his cabine% but he has no% made i% clear he%her he will allow greater political freedom or make his men% more repressive. Liberia made the b].gest headlines of any West African s%.o%e in 190 with its blood coup in April. Neighboring states joined in outcr against %he execu-bions of deposed government officials. of %he. four capitals I visited, onl/ in Monrovia did I find an %ti- %ude of pride in country and hope for %he future amon %he young BSQ-24 people. They accUsed other governments of hypocrisy in condemning the executions but ignoring the oppression of former President William Tolbert's regime. If other West African leaders ant to avoid Tel- bert's fate, they ,lust reapond to their peoples' discontent, not make self-serving statements abo u t peaceful change The coup's lead or, Mas ter Sergeant Samuel Doe, has shown more control over the ,ov ernment and more earnestness n seekn to lle- viate hardships than many p eople expected. .Uo'ever, hs belief in imple and direct so lutions to complex problems illustrates why military governments in Wes t Africa ha;re turned national economies nto ntional disast era. O oe's latest attempt to rid the country of its blance-of-pa.yments def icit was an edict appropriating two months' pay from highly pid work er s and one month's pay from other workers in mardatory nationa 1 s avings-bond plan. More than any other country in West Africa, Liberia's course in 1981 depends on anothe r countr#. That country is the United States. The U.S. government wi II have to provide millions of aoliars in aid to keep Liberia afloat. U.S. support may also be essential to Doe's future. The Reagan administration would fina no lack of applicants for the top job if it decides Doe is not to its liking. With an agriculturally based ree-mrket economy and the highest income per capita in West Africa Inot counting thinly populated, oil- rich Gabon), the ]vo ry Coast has oeen the pet of estern governments, but la.st year it ran into trouOle. The world's leading cocoa exporter, the country lost its gamble t o force up prices by keeping its cocoa, beans off the market Fo r th e first time in years %he Ivory Coast finds itsel f dependent on Fre nch finncil support. On the politica I front, 1980 promised much change but gave little. President F e lix Houphouet-Boign:f, at 76 iso on the edge of re%ire- ment, began the year by callin for constitutionl changes %o insure a smooth tr ansi ti on. He also promised more democrc for his one- ps.,rt.. state The re sults of %llese initiatives by ear's end have not. lived up to people' s expectations. After contradictory hints on how successor wuld b e chosen, the president took the decision fully in+:o his own hands i%h the creation of the office of vice president to be filled oy pros iden%ial ap],ointmen%. The electoral process ws opened up to l]ow greter prticipa%ion in elections for n&tional assembly seats. Th e people resi.onded b voting out of office 54 of the $.0 deputies up for reelecbion. Al%houh he nationl ssemblr is non a different and on ti,e whole younger roup, the influence of fancily associations and wealth does not seem to have altered. The only good thing one can sa5 about Gan % tile end of 1980 is that its r-old democraticallj" elected government ns not been ousted b. the m ili tary. Jerry Rawlins, the popular leader of the last coup, h,s repeatedly criticized the government of President Hill Limann. The Linann governent responds nervously, warning I{awlins th8 t the people won't stand for another military takeover. The try's economy rmains tie s ickest in West Africa. The government has done little to raise public confidence in its abilit>" to deal with the financi al problems, it mishandled a strike by officers of.the nJtio,8 ]. sh ip.in compaiy, botched plans for agricultural develop.:ent, made a mess of its dealings with the domes bic press and ranted lar,ge increases i n parliamentary salaries while calling on other citizens to make sac rifices for the good of the country. 1981 o fflers little hope for improvement. Ghana can count itself luck,y if it still has a civilian Movernment this time next year. Since leading Guinea to independence in 1958, President Ahmed Sekou Toure has allowed little of what goes on there o reach the. out- BSQ-24 .4- side world. ::"::'.This much'is known: %he economy is weak and poIitical opposition iS ruthlessly suppressed. Recently, Sekeu Toure opened up his country a bit, seeking the aid of Western industry in ex- ploiting Guinea's mineral wealth. Once a hero of African natienal- iss he Guine.an president's reputation has tarnished. Historian Basil. Davidson accused him of post-colonial imperialism after Guinea claimed erritorial rights to much of the ocean off neighboring Guinea-Bissau: Nany people wonder if Sekou Toure had anything o do with the November coup in Guinea-Bissau. tie lost no time in recog- nizing the ne government, after his relations ith the former regime had worsened almost to he point of conflict. In J930, Sekou Toure survived an assassination tempt one of several he has lived through. What ill happen in Guinea in J98J is anybody' s .o.uess The one exception to the litany of econo$ic fai!ur e and political uncertainty in West Africa is Nigeria here democracy has thrived in a comfortable climate of oil ealtho In 0ctober, he .:afion celebrated its twentieth anniversary as an independen% state and its first as a constitutional republic fashioned on the American model, Nierians took justifiable pride in a ear %ha% saw an independent judiciary reprimanding President Shehu Shagari, opposition parties in control of state governments fighting for a larger share of federal oil revenues and the miiitar] watching quietly from the. brracks after thirteen years of rule. Nigeria has plent of problems. Corruption, violent crime, %he gap be'een rich and poor are all orse than in other eSt African countries. The difference is that Nigeria has money. -Many Nigerians feel they are no longer part of the Ttiird World. Shagari has not been bashful about assuming a role in world affairs, end he has his country's oil to back him up. More ominously, his defense minister hss talked of making Nigeria a nuclear power. In 198 news from Nigeria will not be about CoUps or famines. A resurgeuce of Islamic fundamentalism in est Africa, linked with Gadafy's expansionist ambitions, promises to be an important external factor for West African states in 1981. Leders in the sahelin states of Niger nd Mli are worried bout th e colonel's support for the no'adic Tuareg people in taeir countries. Libya's merger with Clad &t year's end will increase worries about its future plans. (The war in Chad will probabl3, resume because the Chadian vice .resident a southerner and the commnder of the national army is unlikel# to welcome the Libyan presence.) Senegal and }.igeri have much to fear from Gadaf's support for revolutionary Isl&mic fundmenhalists. In Nigeria, government offi- cials blamed, a fundamentalist sect for riots that snook the northern city of Kano for several days in December, although the sect may not have had an5 connection with Libya. Gadafy has sheltered a Sane galese religious lea.dot who wants %o make his country an Islamic republic. A fundamentalist revival in Senegal could result in civil war. The Mouride brotherhood, a large and influential minorityin the country, reveres its founder, Amadou Bamba, almost as a which more orthodox sects must view aS heresy. The situation seems ripe for more meddling O.y %he Libyan leader.

Quinn Received in Hanover 1/19/81 Borden