www.africa-confidential.com 7 February 2003 Vol 44 No 3 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL SUDAN 3NIGERIA Saving salvation As all eyes are on Iraq, the A victory for the generals Khartoum government has again A soldier – serving or retired – will be running Nigeria by June after taken the Machakos peace talks to a hard fought election the brink. It wants to save its ‘Salvation Revolution’ yet avoid the Nigerians now have a choice of presidential candidates in the 19 April election which almost exactly fate of the Taleban. Western reflects the nation’s schisms and idiosyncrasies (AC Vol 43 No 25 & Vol 44 No 1). The four leading mediators have pushed for peace candidates in a field of 13 are all retired generals. The incumbent and former military head of state, at any price but US patience is Olusegun Obasanjo, is a proselytising evangelical Christian from the south-west. His most serious wearing thin. opponent, Muhammdu Buhari, is another former military head of state from the north-west and a fervent supporter of the Islamic (Sharia) criminal code and its penalties of amputation and stoning to death. SUDAN 4 From the east, come two more retired generals: former Biafra leader General Emeka Ojukwu is standing on an irredentist ticket. With stronger nationalist credentials but the least fancied of the quartet The oil offensive, is Gen. Ike Nwachukwu, whose father is Igbo, mother is Hausa and wife, Yoruba. He speaks all three continued languages. Lurking in the background is another former military leader and probably the wealthiest man in the country, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, whose voting intentions are a matter of consuming national The goverment’s month-long offensive in Upper Nile and attacks interest. However, in this political theatre, the voices of the growing civic organisations, human rights on relief operations flagrantly groups and trades unions have almost been completely marginalised. Nigerian politics is overwhelmingly violate last year’s accord with the an elite and money-centred pastime – even if the parents of many of today’s practitioners were themselves SPLA. And its military build-up poor farmers. elsewhere in the south undermines Last month’s primaries, to elect candidates for the presidential election, do not portend well. Almost prospects for serious negotiation. all the party elections were riven by intense competition, allegations of huge corrupt payments to senior party officials, promises of future ministerial office and threats of imprisonment or violence as the price AFRICA/ECONOMY 5 of countermanding the party leadership’s wishes. In the two leading parties, the People’s Democratic Party and the All Nigeria People’s Party, the successful candidates steamed ahead at the last minute and Rebel forces, market contrary to all expectations. forces Civil wars in Africa and war talk in Mysterious goings on the Gulf are shaking the markets. At a rancorous PDP convention on 5 January in Abuja, Obasanjo won 2,642 votes, his nearest rival, Higher cocoa and coffee prices former Vice-President Alex Ekwueme, won 661 votes. Then two days later, the ANPP elected Buhari will help some African economies as its flagbearer, almost by acclamation with 4,328 votes to nearest rival Yaya Abubakar’s 30 votes, after but higher oil prices will benefit the other five contenders mysteriously abandoned the contest. The previously emollient Ekwueme is the only the lucky few. With rich sorest loser. Convinced that he had secured Babangida’s support to replace Obasanjo as the PDP economies under pressure, hopes are fading that they may bring down flagbearer, as well as backing from a majority of PDP state governors, when he was trounced, Ekwueme barriers to African exports. dismissed the primaries as a charade. In fact, many outside Ekwueme’s camp at the PDP convention were also convinced he had the state governors’ backing. Just two days before the vote, eleven of the 21 PDP state governors met at the Liaison EQUATORIAL GUINEA 6 Office of the Delta State government. There, they agreed on a strategy to back Ekwueme and to persuade Oiling the palm trees the current Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar, to stand as his running mate. All the incumbent PDP state governors, except for Chinwoke Mbadinuju (Anambra State) who faces a legal challenge, won their Reform in Equatorial Guinea has primaries on 23 December and felt confident enough to challenge the President. hit the rocks. Last November Their plan was that Ekwueme, 70 years old this year, would promise to serve only one term before President Obiang said that the country’s oil earnings would stay a handing over to Atiku. Governors present included the long standing Obasanjo adversary Orji Uzor ‘state secret’, hidden from the Kalu (Abia State) and several others who had not been publicly antagonistic to the government, such as: International Monetary Fund and James Ibori (Delta); Diepreye Alamieyeseigha (Bayelsa); Victor Attah (Akwa Ibom); Ahmed everyone else. Makarfi (Kaduna); George Akume (Benue); Bonnie Haruna (Adamawa); Sam Egwu (Ebonyi); Peter Odili (Rivers); Abdullahi Adamu (Nassarawa); Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano). POINTERS 8 Governors from the oil-rich Niger Delta (the ‘South-South’) still seethed at Obasanjo’s veto of legislation to give the eight south-east littoral states that make up the Niger Delta region a greater share Côte d’Ivoire, of revenue from offshore oil production. Initially, the bill had been drawn up by the Presidency, partly Namibia & Angola to appease the Delta States’ demands for ‘resource control’ but amendments approved in debate at the National Assembly meant that it would concede control of revenues from some of Nigeria’s most No deal; reluctant Herero; and is lucrative deepwater production to the littoral states. Gato going? 7 February 2003 Africa Confidential Vol 44 No 3 NIGER Lake from January 1984 to August 1985, he gaoled journalists for publishing Chad SOKOTO stories against the interests of the state, even if they were true; and he KATSINA detained dozens of politicians from the civilian Shehu Shagari’s ZAMFARA JIGAWA YOBE government. BORNO KANO KEBBI In spite of past quarrels with civilian northern politicians, Buhari BENIN has become a rallying point for northern opposition to Obasanjo. BAUCHI KADUNA GOMBE Buhari held back until 2000, when he spoke out strongly in favour of NIGER NIGERIA northern states introducing the Sharia criminal code. Some mystery PLATEAU ADAMAWA surrounds his emergence as flagbearer for the ANPP on 7 January. KWARA Abuja NASSARAWA Four strong northern civilian candidates, led by former security OYO TARABA EKITI director Umaru Shinkafi and Unipetrol Managing Director Yusuf OSUN KOGI BENUE Ali, pulled out of the nomination race on the day before; and five OGUN ONDO CAMEROON ENUGU EDO southern candidates, including former Information Minister John LAGOS ANAMBRA EBONYI Party affiliations of state governors: Nwodo and National Assembly Speaker Ume Ezeoke, waited until ABIA CROSS DELTA IMO RIVER People’s Democratic Party (PDP) the nominations before flouncing out of the convention centre, 300 kilometres RIVERS AKWA Alliance for Democracy (AD) BAYELSA IBOM complaining of a fix up. 150 miles All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) Northern swing In turn, powerful inland states, such as Kano, strongly opposed the Almost as curious is the ascetic and teetotal Buhari’s choice of running bill. Last April, the Supreme Court ruled that offshore resources mate: the hard-drinking Bohemian intellectual Chuba Okadigbo, belong to the Federal government, not the states. The Court also who was President of the Senate till he fell out with Obasanjo two questioned the current division of revenues under the ‘derivation years ago. Shrewder than he looks, Okadigbo may well be able to pull formula’, which entitled all oil-producing states to 13 per cent of the in substantial votes from his Igbo people in the south-east, whose government’s oil earnings in their particular state. The Court interpreted dissatisfaction with the Obasanjo government has grown sharply. that figure as the maximum allowable share of revenue rather than an That’s one reason why Obasanjo will want to keep the support of his automatic entitlement. party’s state governors in the south-east. Much bigger, however, is the threat to Obasanjo of the Buhari-Okadigbo ticket in the north. A Love and loathing critical factor here is the wooing of Babangida. The two have been at Insiders suggest that Obasanjo’s supporters brought Atiku into line odds since Babangida and his allies undermined Buhari’s military with a mixture of threats (the release of unhelpful information about leadership, overthrew it in August 1985 and restricted Buhari for four his businesses and lively personal life) and promises (control over a years. properly funded vice-president’s department and clearly defined The Buhari-Babangida reconciliation is in train. At a meeting executive responsibilities in Obasanjo’s second term. That view still hosted by Sultan Maccido of Sokoto on 12 January, they were urged doesn’t explain why Obasanjo decided to stick with Atiku when the to work together for northern Nigeria (that is, Buhari’s campaign). A two men loathe each other. Indeed, we hear that Atiku has made highly few days later, Shagari hosted the two generals who had overthrown derogatory comments about Obasanjo’s Yoruba people in a yet-to-be- and detained him: again, they were admonished to reconcile and both published interview. Their political relationship since 1999 has been apologised to Shagari. This is heavyweight support from the northern punctuated by furious rows and growing pressure on Atiku, from some establishment, which had been suspicious of Buhari. northern allies, to break away. In the end, the two decided to continue Buhari’s history and associations will present an obvious target for with the bad marriage and reap the benefits of incumbency, despite Obasanjo’s campaign team.