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The Political Report
13th May 2021
From the Opinium/Observer polling series
1 4Fieldwork t h M a y 2021 13th to 14th May 2021
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One-minute takeaway
• The Conservative lead has risen from 5 to 13 points in a fortnight in the wake of the fallout from the local elections. o The Conservatives are up 2 points to 44%, while Labour has dropped 6 points to 31%. • Boris Johnson has taken a large lead of 17 points over Keir Starmer as best prime minister (40% for Johnson vs 23% for Starmer). • Keir Starmer’s ratings have taken a huge knock, with his net approval dropping to -11%. This is mainly driven by a 30-point drop in his net ratings amongst 2019 Labour voters, with a third (34%) of 2019 Labour voters now disapproving of his performance as Labour leader. • Only 29% now think Keir Starmer looks like a prime minister in waiting. • Of the 67% who think Labour did badly in last week’s local elections, 31% think Starmer is to blame, while 28% think others in the Labour Party are to blame. • Third of Labour voters want Starmer to resign • Despite this, a majority of the public (57%) think Starmer has been a better Labour leader than Jeremy Corbyn, while only 23% think Corbyn was better. • Andy Burnham has the highest net approval rating as a potential good leader of the Labour Party now, according to UK adults: 47% think he would be a good leader now while 19% think he would be bad. • Margaret Thatcher is the only past prime minister with a net positive perception by the public. Oddly this is true even in Labour-leaning Leave constituencies, where 39% think Thatcher did a good job while 38% think she did a bad job. • The government’s handling of the pandemic now has a net approval rating of +14%, the highest net approval rating since mid-April 2020. Now just under half (47%) approve of their handling, while 33% disapprove.
Voting intention since the 2019 general election
Con Lab LD Other
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021
Fieldwork 13th to 14th May 2021 | The Political Report | 13th May 2021 | 1
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Headline Trackers
Conservative lead rises to 13 points
After a short-term knock down to 5 points at the end of April, the Conservative lead has risen strongly to 13 points over Labour. This is the largest Conservative lead since Keir Starmer became leader of the Labour Party.
44%
31%
8% 7% 5% 4% 1%
Con Lab Lib Dem SNP Green Plaid Cymru Other
Latest polling 28th April
The leaders
Johnson way out on front Best PM as best prime minister Johnson Starmer None For most of this year Boris Johnson has had quite a narrow lead as best prime minister, but after the local 40% election results and the fallout from it, the situation is very different. 32% Two in five (40%) now think that Boris Johnson is best 29% as prime minister, up from only 32% a fortnight before. 24% 24% Similarly, the proportion who think Keir Starmer would 23% be the best PM has dropped from 29% to only 23%, below ‘none of the above’ on 24%.
28 Apr 13 May
Fieldwork 13th to 14th May 2021 | The Political Report | 13th May 2021 | 2
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Starmer approval rating falls to lowest level so far
Only 28% of UK adults now approve of Keir Starmer, the lowest figure we have recorded for him so far, while 39% now disapprove of the way he is handling being leader of the Labour Party, up from the highest level of disapproval we had for him in late March (when 35% disapproved).
In terms of the net approval rating, at -11%, this is only the second time we have seen him in the net negative approval. The other being the same poll in late March, when he was on net approval of -5%.
Keir Starmer approval rating
Approve Disapprove Neither
39%
28%
Apr 2020 Jun 2020 Aug 2020 Oct 2020 Dec 2020 Feb 2021 Apr 2021
This drop in rating is mainly because of a collapse in approval amongst 2019 Labour voters. Currently only 44% of 2019 Labour voters approve of his performance as Labour leader, down 15 points from 59% a fortnight ago. Disapproval is up the same amount from 19% to 34%. Hence his net approval rating amongst his own party’s voters has dropped 30 points from +40% to +10%.
2019 Conservatives 2019 Labour voters
Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove
59% 56% 51% 44%
34%
20% 19% 16%
28 Apr 13 May 28 Apr 13 May
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Only 29% now think Keir Starmer looks like a prime minister in waiting
As long with his overall approval ratings, many of Starmer’s ratings have tumbled, particularly those around his strength and ability to act. Starmer’s net approval has dropped on being a strong leader (+7% to -14%), looking like a prime minister in waiting (+4% to -12%) and being able to get things done (+5% to -11%). Even one of his key strong suits, being seen to be in touch with ordinary people, more now disagree (35%) that this applies to him than agrees (32%).
Strong leader Looks like a PM in Able to get things In touch with waiting done ordinary people
Approve Approve Approve Approve Disapprove Disapprove Disapprove Disapprove
41 40 39 40 36 36 35 32 33 32 29 29 28 26 27 27
28 Apr 13 May 28 Apr 13 May 28 Apr 13 May 28 Apr 13 May
However, on some other areas the hit has been more limited. A plurality still agree that Keir Starmer has the nation’s best interest at heart (41% agree vs 26% disagree), and a plurality still think he sticks to his principles (36% agree vs 29% disagree).
31% blame Starmer for result Who is to blame for Labour having done badly? Two thirds (67%) of the public think that Labour did badly in the local elections, and only 20% think they did well. Starmer to blame Others to blame This includes almost seven in ten (69%) 2019 Labour Noone is to blame voters that think Labour performed badly in the elections.
By comparison, 72% think the Conservatives did well, 31% while only 14% think they did badly. 28% 27% 31% of those who think Labour did badly blame Starmer, 23% 20% while 28% blame others in the Labour Party. However, 17% 2019 Labour voters who think Labour did badly are more likely than the public as a whole to say nobody is to blame and the result was always going to be tough (20% vs 17% respectively). All UK adults 2019 Labour voter
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Third of Labour voters want Starmer to resign
Just under half (49%) of 2019 Labour voters think Keir Starmer should remain as Labour leader, but a third (33%) think he should resign.
Those opposed to Starmer have clearly begun to stop voting for Labour, as those who are currently intending to vote Labour want him to stay (57% remain as leader vs 28% resign).
A majority of the public (57%) think Starmer has been a better Labour leader than Jeremy Corbyn, while only 23% think Corbyn was better. 2019 Labour voters are more divided, with only half (50%) believing Starmer was the better leader while 35% think Corbyn was.
Burnham apparent public favourite as alternative Labour leader
Andy Burnham has the highest net approval rating as a potential good leader of the Labour Party now, according to UK adults: 47% think he would be a good leader now while 19% think he would be bad.
Of all the names tested, Tony Blair has the worst rating, with half (49%) believing Tony Blair would be a bad leader of the Labour Party now.
Would these be good or bad Labour leaders now?
Good leader Bad leader
Andy Burnham 19% 47%
Hilary Benn 23% 29%
Anas Sarwar 17% 19%
Lisa Nandy 23% 24%
Rachel Reeves 19% 20%
Sadiq Khan 35% 35%
Angela Rayner 26% 25%
Gordon Brown 45% 35%
Tony Blair 49% 36%
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Past leaders
Trying to find some sort of historical benchmark, we looked at how the public perceive of past prime minister and which of them did a good or bad job. Margaret Thatcher is the only prime minister with a net positive rating on this metric (42% think she did a good job vs 36% bad job).
Did these prime ministers do a good or bad job?
Good job Bad job
Margaret Thatcher 36% 42%
John Major 30% 26%
Tony Blair 40% 33%
Gordon Brown 39% 25%
David Cameron 50% 21%
Theresa May 51% 22%
To represent the difficult findings for the Labour Party, Labour-leaning Leave seats have a narrowly net positive perception of Margaret Thatcher (39% good job vs 38% bad job), while having a net negative perception of Tony Blair (32% good job vs 37% bad job).
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Coronavirus
Government maintains positive ratings
The government’s handling of the pandemic now has a net approval rating of +14%, the highest net approval rating since mid-April 2020. Now just under half (47%) approve of their handling, while 33% disapprove.
Approval of the governments handling of Coronavirus
Approve Disapprove
70% 60% 50% 47% 40% 30% 33% 20% 10% 0% Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021
There are other very positive ratings for the government. Just over half (51%) now think the government is acting proportionally to the crisis, only 28% now think they are underreacting, while 75% now approve of the government’s handling of the vaccine rollout.
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Parties vs. the public
We asked the public whether they not they agreed with a series of economic and cultural statements, and then asked them whether they thought Labour and the Conservatives agreed with the same statement.
On almost all of the economic statements, the Conservatives were seen to disagree with where most of the public were. On the cultural statements, with some differences, the Conservatives were judged to be much closer to where the public was.
Where the public stand, and view the parties as standing,
What UK adults agree with Labour agrees Conservatives agree
30% Government should redistribute income from the 46% better off to those who are less well off -39% 55% Big business takes advantage of ordinary people 41% -31% 54% Ordinary working people do not get their fair share 48% of the nation’s wealth -33% 52% There is currently one law for the rich and one for 45% the poor -32% 47% Management will always try to get the better of 33% employees if it gets the chance -24% 38% Young people today don’t have enough respect for 0% traditional British values 34% 12% For some crimes, the death penalty is the most -28% appropriate sentence 2% 38% Schools should teach children to obey authority 2% 37% 16% Censorship of films and magazines is necessary to 7% uphold moral standards 27% 42% People who break the law should be given harsher -6% sentences 31% 47% People in the UK should be proud to be British 20% 50%
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About Opinium
OPINIUM is an award winning strategic insight agency built on the belief that in a world of uncertainty and complexity, success depends on the ability to stay on pulse of what people think, feel and do. Creative and inquisitive, we are passionate about empowering our clients to make the decisions that matter. We work with organisations to define and overcome strategic challenges – helping them to get to grips with the world in which their brands operate. We use the right approach and methodology to deliver robust insights, strategic counsel and targeted recommendations that generate change and positive outcomes. www.opinium.com | [email protected] | 0207 566 3190
Opinium Research is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Under these rules we are required, when requested, to make information available from survey results that have entered the public domain. These include, but are not limited to, the name of commissioning client, fieldwork dates, methodology, size and composition of sample, and data tables showing the text of the questions asked, the order in which they were asked and the answers given to them. Fieldwork 13th to 14th May 2021 | The Political Report | 13th May 2021 | 9