IPSOS MORI POLITICAL MONITOR April 2021

Home , Keir Starmer, Rishi Sunak

Headline voting intention All giving a voting intention

Conservative 40% Conservative 40%

Labour 37% Labour 36%

Lib Dems 8% Lib Dem 8%

Green 5% Green 5%

Other 10% Other 9%

Conservative lead = +3 Conservative lead = +4

Base: 1,090 British adults 18+, 16-22 April 2021; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 798. Margin of error is displayed Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.

3 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Headline voting intention: Since the 2015 General Election How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?

% Corbyn elected May as PM Johnson as PM Starmer elected (Sept 15) (July 16) (July 19) (Apr 20) 60 April 2021 50 40% Conservative 40 37% 30 Labour

Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20

Apr 21 Apr

Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21

Mar16 Mar17 Mar18 Mar19 Mar20 Mar21

Nov 20 Nov Sep15 Nov15 Sep16 Nov16 Sep17 Nov17 Sep18 Nov18 Sep19 Nov19 Sep20

May May 15 May 18 May 16 May 17 May 19 May 20 General Election

Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019

4 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – April ‘21 How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?

% Cameron elected Brown as PM Miliband elected Corbyn elected May as PM Johnson as PM Starmer elected (Dec 05) (June 07) (Sept 10) (Sept 15) (July 16) (July 19) (Apr 20) 60

April 50 2021

40% Conservative 40 37% Labour

8% Lib Dem 10 5% Green 1% Brexit Party/Reform UK

0 1% UKIP

Jul 17 Jul Jul04 Jul05 Jul06 Jul07 Jul08 Jul09 Jul10 Jul11 Jul12 Jul13 Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20

Oct 10 Oct 16 Oct 17 Apr Apr04 Oct 04 Apr05 Oct 05 Apr06 Oct 06 Apr07 Oct 07 Apr08 Oct 08 Apr09 Oct 09 Apr10 Apr11 Oct 11 Apr12 Oct 12 Apr13 Oct 13 Apr14 Oct 14 Apr15 Oct 15 Apr16 Oct 17 Apr18 Oct 18 Apr19 Oct 19 Apr20 Oct 20 Apr21

Jan 10 Jan Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan Jan 04 Jan General Election

5 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 SATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is running the country / doing his job as Prime Minister /Leader of the Labour Party?

Boris Johnson Keir Starmer The Government Dissatisfied

46% 50% 51%

Don’t know 6% 18% 5%

44% 36% 44%

Satisfied Net= -6% Net= -10 Net= -7 +0.5% swing -0.5% swing +0% swing from March 2021 from March 2021 from March 2021

Base: 1,090 British adults 18+, 16-22 April 2021. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

7 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Boris Johnson: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?

April 2021 July 2019 – April 2021 100 44% 90 Satisfied 80 70 44% 6% 60 50% Don’t know Dissatisfied 50% 50

40 44% 50% Satisfied Dissatisfied 30 6% 20 Net = -6 10

Base: 1,090 British adults 18+, 16-22 April 2021

Jul-19 Jul-20

Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21

Jan-19 Jun-20 Jan-21

Feb-19 Mar-20 Feb-21 Mar-21

Nov-20 Dec-19 Dec-20

Sep-19 Aug-20 Sep-20 May-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

8 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Boris Johnson: Satisfaction among Conservative supporters Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?

April 2021 July 2019 – April 2021 100

90 13% 82% 82% Satisfied 80 Satisfied 6% 70 6% 60 Don’t know 50

40 82% 13% Dissatisfied 30 20

Net = +69 10 13% Dissatisfied 0

Base: 345 Conservative party supporters aged 18+, 16-22 April 2021.

Jul-19 Jul-20

Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21

Jan-20 Jun-20 Jan-21

Mar-20 Mar-21

Feb-20 Feb-21

Nov-20 Dec-19 Dec-20

Sep-19 Aug-20 Sep-20 May-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

9 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2021)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as prime minister?

Johnson

Blair

May

Cameron Net Net satisfaction Major

Brown

Thatcher

Johnson

Number of months after becoming prime minister

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

10 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2021)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country?

Johnson’s Gov

Blair’s gov

Cameron’s gov

May’s gov Net satisfaction

Thatcher’s gov

Brown’s gov

Major’s gov

Johnson’s gov

Number of months after assuming government

11 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Keir Starmer: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

April 2021 June 2020 – April 2021 100 36% 90 Satisfied 80 70 36% 46% 18% 60 Don’t know 46% 50 Dissatisfied 46% 40 36% Dissatisfied 30 Satisfied 18% 20

Net = -10 10

Base: 1,090 British adults 18+, 16-22 April 2021

Jul-20

Oct-20 Apr-21

Jun-20 Jan-21

Feb-21 Mar-21

Nov-20 Dec-20

Aug-20 Sep-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

12 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2021) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

Starmer

Starmer Cameron

Corbyn Howard

Miliband Duncan-smith

Blair Hague Net satisfaction Net Smith

Kinnock

Foot

Number of months after becoming opposition leader

13 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Keir Starmer: Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

April 2021 June 2020 – April 2021 100 51% 90 Satisfied 80 70 39% 10% 60 Don’t know 51% 51% 50 Satisfied 40 39% 39% Dissatisfied 30 Dissatisfied 10% 20

Net = +12 10

Base: 328 Labour party supporters aged 18+, 16-22 April 2021

Jul-20

Oct-20 Apr-21

Jun-20 Jan-21

Feb-21 Mar-21

Nov-20 Dec-20

Aug-20 Sep-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

14 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Keir Starmer: Net satisfaction

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

% Net satisfied 75 +66% 65 +56% 55 +51% +50%

45 +31% +33% 35 +31% Among +22% 25 +19% Labour +16% +15% +12% 15 voters +5% +5% 5 +14% Among all +9% -5 -9% -10% -1% Among -5% -15 -6% Conservative -12% -25 -15% -16% voters Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21

Source: Ipsos MORI Base: c.1000 British adults each month.

15 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Ed Davey: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Davey is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?

April 2021 September 2020 – April 2021 100 18% 90 18% Satisfied 80 70 38% 43% 60 Don’t know 50 38% 40 38% 30 Dissatisfied 43% Dissatisfied 20 Net = -20 18% 10 Satisfied 0

Base: 1,090 British adults 18+, 16-22 April 2021

Oct-20 Apr-21

Jan-21

Feb-21 Mar-21

Nov-20 Dec-20 Sep-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

16 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Rishi Sunak: Satisfaction

Can you tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Rishi Sunak is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?

April 2021 March 2020 – April 2021 100 58% 90 Satisfied 80 27% 70 14% 60 58% Don’t know Satisfied 50 58% 40 14% 27% Dissatisfied 30 27% 20 Dissatisfied

Net = +31 10

Base: 1,090 British adults 18+, 16-22 April 2021

Jul-20

Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21

Jun-20 Jan-21

Mar-20 Feb-21 Mar-21

Nov-20 Dec-20

Aug-20 Sep-20 May-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

17 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Rishi Sunak: Net satisfaction

Can you tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Rishi Sunak is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?

% Net satisfied 100 +79% +78% +75% +76% +73% Among 75 Conservative +56% voters

50 +43% +42% +32% +31% +28% +30% Among all 25 +28% +27% Among 0 +9% Labour +2% voters 0% -3%

-25 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21

Source: Ipsos MORI Base: c.1000 British adults each month.

18 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Satisfaction with the Chancellor of the Exchequer: 1976-2021

Can you tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?

HEALEY HOWE LAWSON MAJOR LAMONT CLARKE BROWN DARLING OSBORNE HAMMOND JAVID 80 Apr-21 67% 70 64% Rishi 57% 60 52% Sunak 47% 50 44% 58% 39% 39% 37% 38% 40 36% 37%

30 % % SATISFIED 20

Note: Data labels denote each Chancellor’s highest satisfaction score

Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

19 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 TRUST IN POLITICIANS

© Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential Do the public trust MPs to tell the truth? I am going to read out some different types of people. For each, please tell me if you would generally trust them to tell the truth or not. Trust to tell the truth Do not trust to tell the truth

MPs in general April 2021 23% 72% 2013 21% 72% 2009 20% 76% 2006 30% 60% 2004 27% 67% Your local MP April 2021 47% 41% 2013 51% 35% 2009 40% 44% 2006 48% 39% 2004 47% 45%

Base: 1,090 British adults 18+, 16-22 April 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

21 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Whose interests do MPs put first?

In general, whose interests do you think MPs put first? January 1994 – April 2021 75%

62% 56% 52% 52%

50% 45% 43% Their own 31% 28% Their party’s 26% 27% 36% 25% 21% 14% 11% 7% 7% 8% 8% Their constituents The country’s 9%

0% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6%

1994 1999 2004 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Base: c.1000 British adults each month. Source: Ipsos MORI

22 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Which politicians do the public trust? In general would you describe each of the following politicians as trustworthy or not? Trustworthy Not trustworthy

Theresa May 50% 45%

John Major 48% 36%

Gordon Brown 47% 41%

Keir Starmer 42% 41%

Boris Johnson 35% 59%

Tony Blair 23% 69%

David Cameron 21% 74%

Base: 1,090 British adults 18+, 16-22 April 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

23 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Which politicians do the public trust? By party support In general would you describe each of the following politicians as trustworthy or not? Trustworthy Not trustworthy Among Conservative supporters Among Labour supporters Boris Johnson Keir Starmer 69% 26% 60% 33% Theresa May Gordon Brown 69% 30% 58% 35% John Major John Major 59% 31% 50% 34% Gordon Brown Theresa May 47% 44% 44% 50% Keir Starmer Tony Blair 39% 46% 29% 64% David Cameron Boris Johnson 33% 63% 17% 80% Tony Blair David Cameron 21% 75% 9% 89%

Base: 1,090 British adults 18+, 345 Conservative supporters, 328 Labour supporters, 16-22 April 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

24 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Which politicians do the public trust? David Cameron In general, would you describe each of the following politicians as trustworthy or not?

Trustworthy Not trustworthy

David Cameron, 2010-2021

Apr-21 21% 74%

Feb-13 43% 51%

Dec-10 41% 47%

Apr-10 43% 51%

Base: 1,090 British adults 18+, 16-22 April 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

25 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Which politicians do the public trust? Tony Blair In general, would you describe each of the following politicians as trustworthy or not?

Trustworthy Not trustworthy

Tony Blair, 2000 - 2021 Apr-21 23% 69% Jun-07 31% 61% Sep-06 29% 60% Apr-05 32% 61% Jan-05 32% 57% Feb-04 32% 60% Nov-03 35% 58% Jul-03 41% 49% Jun-03 36% 58% Apr-01 46% 45% Mar-01 53% 38% Oct-00 46% 49% Sep-00 37% 56%

Base: 1,090 British adults 18+, 16-22 April 2021

26 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Which politicians do the public trust? Gordon Brown In general, would you describe each of the following politicians as trustworthy or not?

Trustworthy Not trustworthy

Gordon Brown, 2000 - 2021 Apr-21 47% 41% Apr-10 41% 55% Oct-07 48% 43% Aug-07 54% 37% Jun-07 37% 49% Sep-06 42% 39% Apr-05 52% 36% Jan-05 50% 31% Jun-03 52% 37% Oct-00 41% 48% Sep-00 29% 62%

Base: 1,090 British adults 18+, 16-22 April 2021

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

April 2021 January 2007– April 2021 80

36% 70 2% Get worse 60 11% 51% 50 Improve 36% Stay the same 40 36% 51% 51% 30 Get worse Improve 20 11% 2% 11% Don’t know 10 Stay the same

EOI = +15

Jul-07 Jul-17

Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-15 Oct-15 Oct-16 Apr-20 Apr-21

Jan-07 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jun-16 Jan-18 Jun-18 Jun-19

Feb-16 Feb-17

Dec-18 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-19 Dec-20

Aug-08 Aug-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Aug-20

May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14

Base: 1,090 British adults 18+,16-22 April 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

29 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 Economic Optimism Index (1998-2021) Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

20 Net optimism +15% 0

-20

-40

-60

-80

Jul2008 Jul1999 Jul2002 Jul2005 Jul2011 Jul2014 Jul2017 Jul2020

Apr2009 Oct1998 Apr2000 Oct2001 Apr2003 Oct2004 Apr2006 Oct2007 Oct2010 Apr2012 Oct2013 Apr2015 Oct2016 Apr2018 Oct2019 Apr2021

Jan 1998 Jan 2001 Jan 2004 Jan 2007 Jan 2010 Jan 2013 Jan 2016 Jan 2019

Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

© Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential Handling of the Very/fairly well Very/fairly badly Net well Coronavirus Rishi Sunak, Chancellor of the Exchequer outbreak 59% 17% +42 Overall, how well or badly The Government do you think each of the following have handled 45% 45% 0 the coronavirus outbreak so far? If you do not know Boris Johnson who the person is, please 42% 46% say so. -4 Matt Hancock, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care 38% 41% -3 Keir Starmer, Leader of the Labour party 29% 28% +1

Base: 1,090 British adults 18+, 16-22 April 2021

32 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | April 2021 The Government’s handling of the Coronavirus outbreak Overall, how well or badly do you think the Government has handled the coronavirus outbreak so far?

March 2020 – April 2021 60% 50% 50% 49% 47% 50% 44% 46% 44% 45% 42% Very/fairly badly 40% 45% 40% 40% 41% Very/fairly well 37% 38% 30% 35% 32% 30% 20%

10%

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month

Overall, how well or badly do you think each of the following have handled the coronavirus outbreak so far? If you do not know who the person is, please say so. % Net handling the Coronavirus outbreak well

+17 20% +11 +9 +8 +10 +3 April 2021 0 +0 +1 0% Keir Starmer Boris Johnson -3 -4 -9 -7 -20%

-24

-40% Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Do you think the government has done a good job or bad job at ensuring the public are vaccinated as soon as possible? Good job Bad job

Among all Apr-21 86% 10% Mar-21 88% 7% Feb-21 78% 16% Among Conservative supporters Apr-21 97% 3% Mar-21 95% 3% Feb-21 92% 6% Among Labour supporters Apr-21 85% 12% Mar-21 85% 8% Feb-21 65% 24%

Base: 1,090 British adults 18+, 16-22 April 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

On Monday 12th April, Coronavirus restrictions in England were eased so that all shops could open along with hairdressers and gyms. Pubs and restaurants were also allowed to open as long as drinks and meals were served outdoors. Members of the same household are now allowed to take a holiday in self-contained accommodation, but holidays abroad are still banned. Government advice remains to keep journeys to a minimum and to work from home where possible. Overall, do you think the UK government is relaxing coronavirus restrictions in England …? Too quickly About the right speed Too slowly Don’t know

Among all

21% 67% 9% 2%

Among Conservative supporters

14% 78% 7% 1%

Among Labour supporters

23% 65% 9% 3%

Base: 1,0090 British adults 18+, including 345 Conservative supporters and 328 Labour supporters, 16-22 April 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

April 2021 Political Monitor

For more information

Gideon Skinner Cameron Garrett Research Director Senior Research Executive [email protected] [email protected]

Keiran Pedley Dylan Spielman Research Director Research Executive [email protected] [email protected]

Glenn Gottfried Research Manager [email protected]