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POLITICAL MONITOR February 2021

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POLITICAL MONITOR February 2021 IPSOS MORI POLITICAL MONITOR February 2021 © Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential VOTING INTENTION © Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential Voting Intention: February 2021 How do you intend to vote in the General Election? Will you vote…? Headline voting intention All giving a voting intention Conservative 42% Conservative 42% Labour 38% Labour 37% Green 8% Green 7% Lib Dems 7% Lib Dem 7% Other 5% Other 5% Conservative lead = +4 Conservative lead = Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January – 4 February 2021; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 769. Margin of Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures. 3 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 40 50 60 10 20 30 4 % How would you vote election tomorrow? werean you wouldif there vote How Since the 2015 General Election Headline voting intention: Elections. Elections. Note small change in methodology approach in to prompting Brexit Party in 2019 July Base: 0 c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July turnout 2015 filter is “all May 15 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February Monitor | February 2021 PoliticalIpsosMORI © Ipsos| Jul 15 Sep 15 15) (Sept elected Corbyn Nov 15 Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 16) (July PM as May Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17 Mar 17 May 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Nov 17 Jan 18 9/ 10 10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Mar 18 May 18 Jul 18 Sep 18 Nov 18 Johnson as PM as Johnson Jan 19 Mar 19 (July 19) (July May 19 Jul 19 Sep 19 Nov 19 elected Starmer Jan 20 Mar 20 20) (Apr May 20 Jul 20 Sep 20 Nov 20 FebJan 21 Source: Source: 2021 February Labour 38% Conservative 42% General Election General Ipsos Ipsos MORI Monitor Political 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 5 How would you vote election tomorrow? werean you wouldif there vote How January ‘04 Headline voting intention: Elections. Elections. Note small change methodology in in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019 Base: % Jan 04 c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July turnout 2015 filter is “all Apr 04 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February Monitor | February 2021 PoliticalIpsosMORI © Ipsos| Jul 04 elected Cameron Oct 04 Jan 05 Apr 05 05) (Dec Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr 06 Jul 06 Oct 06 Jan 07 Apr 07 07 (June PM as Brown Jul 07 – Oct 07 February February ‘21 Jan 08 ) Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 10) (Sept elected Miliband Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 9/ Apr 12 10 10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 elected Corbyn Jul 14 Oct 14 (Sept 15) (Sept Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 16) (July PM as May Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Jan 18 PM as Johnson Apr 18 Source: Source: Jul 18 Oct 18 19) (July Jan 19 Ipsos Ipsos MORI Monitor Political Apr 19 Jul 19 Oct 19 Jan 20 20) (Apr Starmer Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 elected Jan 21 2021 February UKIP UK Party/Reform Brexit Dem Lib 7% Green 8% Labour 38% 42% Conservative 42% General Election General SATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS © Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: February 2021 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is running the country / doing his job as Prime Minister /Leader of the Labour Party? Boris Johnson Keir Starmer The Government Dissatisfied 35% 51% 51% Don’t know 24% 7% 8% 42% 40% 41% Satisfied Net= -9% Net= +5 Net= -10 -0.5% swing 0% swing +3% swing from December 2020 from December 2020 from December 2020 Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January – 4 February 2021. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 7 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Boris Johnson: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister? February 2021 July 2019 – February 2021 100 42% 90 Satisfied 80 70 42% 7% 60 51% Don’t know Dissatisfied 51% 50 40 42% 51% Satisfied Dissatisfied 30 7% 20 Net = -9 10 0 Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January - 4 February 2021 Jul-19 Jul-20 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Jan-19 Jun-20 Jan-21 Mar-20 Feb-19 Feb-21 Dec-20 Dec-19 Nov-20 Sep-19 Aug-20 Sep-20 May-20 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 8 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Boris Johnson: Satisfaction among Conservative supporters Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister? February 2021 July 2019 – February 2021 100 79% 90 19% Satisfied 80 79% Satisfied 70 2% 3% 60 Don’t know 50 40 79% 19% Dissatisfied 30 20 19% Net = +60 10 Dissatisfied 0 Base: 342 Conservative party supporters aged 18+, 29 January – 4 February 2021. Jul-19 Jul-20 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Jan-20 Jun-20 Jan-21 Mar-20 Feb-20 Feb-21 Dec-19 Nov-20 Dec-20 Sep-19 Aug-20 Sep-20 May-20 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 9 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2021) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as prime minister? Johnson Blair May Cameron Net satisfaction Net Major Brown Thatcher Johnson Number of months after becoming prime minister Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 10 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2021) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country? Johnson’s Gov Blair’s gov Cameron’s gov May’s gov satisfaction Net Thatcher’s gov Brown’s gov Major’s gov Johnson’s gov Number of months after assuming government Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 11 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Keir Starmer: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? February 2021 June 2020 - February 2021 100 40% 90 Satisfied 80 70 35% 40% 24% 60 Don’t know 50 40% Satisfied 35% 40 Dissatisfied 30 35% 24% 20 Dissatisfied Net = +5 10 0 Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January - 4 February 2021 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jun-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Dec-20 Nov-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 12 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2020) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? Starmer Starmer Cameron Corbyn Howard Miliband Duncan-smith Blair Hague Net satisfaction Net Smith Kinnock Foot Number of months after becoming opposition leader Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 13 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Keir Starmer: Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? February 2021 June 2020 – February 2021 100 58% 90 Satisfied 80 25% 70 17% 60 Don’t know 58% 50 Satisfied 58% 17% 25% 40 Dissatisfied 30 25% 20 Dissatisfied Net = +33 10 0 Base: 354 Labour party supporters aged 18+, 29 January – 4 February 2021 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jun-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Dec-20 Nov-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 14 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Keir Starmer: Net satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? % Net satisfied 75 66% 65 56% 55 51% 50% 45 33% Among 31% 31% 35 Labour 22% 25 voters 16% 15% 15 5% 5% Among all 5 14% 9% -5 Among -1% -15 -5% -6% Conservative -12% voters -25 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Source: Ipsos MORI Base: c.1000 British adults each month.
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