POLITICAL MONITOR February 2021

IPSOS MORI POLITICAL MONITOR February 2021

Headline voting intention All giving a voting intention

Conservative 42% Conservative 42%

Labour 38% Labour 37%

Green 8% Green 7%

Lib Dems 7% Lib Dem 7%

Other 5% Other 5%

Conservative lead = +4 Conservative lead =

Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January – 4 February 2021; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 769. Margin of Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.

3 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Headline voting intention: Since the 2015 General Election How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?

% Corbyn elected May as PM Johnson as PM Starmer elected (Sept 15) (July 16) (July 19) (Apr 20) 60 February 2021 50 42% 40 Conservative 38% 30 Labour

Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20

Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21

Mar16 Mar17 Mar18 Mar19 Mar20

Sep15 Nov15 Sep16 Nov16 Sep17 Nov17 Sep18 Nov18 Sep19 Nov19 Sep20 Nov20

Feb 21 Feb

May 15 May 16 May 17 May 18 May 19 May 20 General Election

Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019

4 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – February ‘21 How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?

% Cameron elected Brown as PM Miliband elected Corbyn elected May as PM Johnson as PM Starmer elected (Dec 05) (June 07) (Sept 10) (Sept 15) (July 16) (July 19) (Apr 20) 60

50 February 2021

40 42% Conservative 38% Labour

8% Green 10 7% Lib Dem Brexit Party/Reform UK

0 UKIP

Jul 10 Jul 19 Jul Jul04 Jul05 Jul06 Jul07 Jul08 Jul09 Jul11 Jul12 Jul13 Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul20

Oct 11 Oct 18 Apr Apr04 Oct 04 Apr05 Oct 05 Apr06 Oct 06 Apr07 Oct 07 Apr08 Oct 08 Apr09 Oct 09 Apr10 Oct 10 Apr11 Apr12 Oct 12 Apr13 Oct 13 Apr14 Oct 14 Apr15 Oct 15 Apr16 Oct 16 Apr17 Oct 17 Oct 18 Apr19 Oct 19 Apr20 Oct 20

Jan 21 Jan Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan Jan 04 Jan General Election

5 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 SATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is running the country / doing his job as Prime Minister /Leader of the Labour Party?

Boris Johnson Keir Starmer The Government Dissatisfied

35% 51% 51%

Don’t know 24% 7% 8%

42% 40% 41%

Satisfied Net= -9% Net= +5 Net= -10 -0.5% swing 0% swing +3% swing from December 2020 from December 2020 from December 2020

Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January – 4 February 2021. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

7 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Boris Johnson: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?

February 2021 July 2019 – February 2021 100 42% 90 Satisfied 80 70 42% 7% 60 51% Don’t know Dissatisfied 51% 50 40 42% 51% Satisfied Dissatisfied 30 7% 20

Net = -9 10

Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January - 4 February 2021

Jul-19 Jul-20

Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20

Jan-19 Jun-20 Jan-21

Mar-20 Feb-19 Feb-21

Dec-20 Dec-19 Nov-20

Sep-19 Aug-20 Sep-20 May-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

8 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Boris Johnson: Satisfaction among Conservative supporters Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?

February 2021 July 2019 – February 2021 100 79% 90 19% Satisfied 80 79% Satisfied 70 2% 3% 60 Don’t know 50

40 79% 19% Dissatisfied 30 20 19% Net = +60 10 Dissatisfied

Base: 342 Conservative party supporters aged 18+, 29 January – 4 February 2021.

Jul-19 Jul-20

Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20

Jan-20 Jun-20 Jan-21

Mar-20

Feb-20 Feb-21

Dec-19 Nov-20 Dec-20

Sep-19 Aug-20 Sep-20 May-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

9 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2021)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as prime minister?

Johnson

Blair

May

Cameron Net Net satisfaction Major

Brown

Thatcher

Johnson

Number of months after becoming prime minister

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

10 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2021)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country?

Johnson’s Gov

Blair’s gov

Cameron’s gov

May’s gov Net satisfaction

Thatcher’s gov

Brown’s gov

Major’s gov

Johnson’s gov

Number of months after assuming government

11 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Keir Starmer: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

February 2021 June 2020 - February 2021 100 40% 90 Satisfied 80 70 35% 40% 24% 60 Don’t know 50 40% Satisfied 35% 40 Dissatisfied 30 35% 24% 20 Dissatisfied Net = +5 10

Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January - 4 February 2021

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jun-20 Jan-21

Feb-21

Dec-20 Nov-20

Aug-20 Sep-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

12 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2020) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

Starmer

Starmer Cameron

Corbyn Howard

Miliband Duncan-smith

Blair Hague Net satisfaction Net Smith

Kinnock

Foot

Number of months after becoming opposition leader

13 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Keir Starmer: Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

February 2021 June 2020 – February 2021 100 58% 90 Satisfied 80 25% 70 17% 60 Don’t know 58% 50 Satisfied 58% 17% 25% 40 Dissatisfied 30 25% 20 Dissatisfied Net = +33 10

Base: 354 Labour party supporters aged 18+, 29 January – 4 February 2021

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jun-20 Jan-21

Feb-21

Dec-20 Nov-20

Aug-20 Sep-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

14 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Keir Starmer: Net satisfaction

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

% Net satisfied 75 66% 65 56% 55 51% 50%

45 33% Among 31% 31% 35 Labour 22% 25 voters 16% 15% 15 5% 5% Among all 5 14% 9% -5 Among -1% -15 -5% -6% Conservative -12% voters -25 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21

Source: Ipsos MORI Base: c.1000 British adults each month.

15 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Ed Davey: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Davey is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?

February 2021 September 2020 – February 2021 100 14% 90 14% Satisfied 80 70 40% 47% 60 Don’t know 50 40% 40 40% Dissatisfied 47% Dissatisfied 30 20 14% Net = -26 10 Satisfied

Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January - 4 February 2021

Oct-20

Jan-21

Feb-21

Nov-20 Dec-20 Sep-20

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

16 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

February 2021 January 2007– February 2021 80

60% 70 2% Get worse 60% 60 Get worse

9% 50 29% Stay the same 40

29% 30 60% Improve 29% Improve 9% 20 2% Don’t know 10 9% Stay the same 0

EOI = -31

Jul-07 Jul-17

Oct-16 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-20

Jan-07 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jun-16 Jan-18 Jun-18 Jun-19

Feb-16 Feb-17

Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20

Sep-14 Aug-08 Aug-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Aug-20

May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14

Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January - 4 February 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

18 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Economic Optimism Index (1998-2021) Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

-20 Net optimism

-40 -31%

-60

-80

Jul1999 Jul2002 Jul2005 Jul2008 Jul2011 Jul2014 Jul2017 Jul2020

Apr2000 Oct1998 Oct2001 Apr2003 Oct2004 Apr2006 Oct2007 Apr2009 Oct2010 Apr2012 Oct2013 Apr2015 Oct2016 Apr2018 Oct2019

Jan 1998 Jan 2001 Jan 2004 Jan 2007 Jan 2010 Jan 2013 Jan 2016 Jan 2019 Feb 2021 Feb

Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

19 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 LABOUR THE LEADERSHIP CORONAVIRUS CONTEST

© Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential Handling of the Very/fairly well Very/fairly badly Net well Coronavirus Rishi Sunak, Chancellor of the Exchequer outbreak 55% 20% +35 Overall, how well or badly Matt Hancock, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care do you think each of the following have handled 40% 41% -1 the coronavirus outbreak so far? If you do not know Boris Johnson who the person is, please 39% 46% say so. -7 The Government 38% 46% -8 Keir Starmer, Leader of the Labour party 32% 22% +10

Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January - 4 February 2021

21 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 The Government’s handling of the Coronavirus outbreak Overall, how well or badly do you think the Government has handled the coronavirus outbreak so far?

March 2020 – February 2021 60% 50% 50% 49% 47% 50% 44% 46% 42% Very/fairly badly

40% 40% 40% Very/fairly well 37% 38% 30% 35% 32% 30% 20%

10%

0% Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month

22 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Handling of the Coronavirus outbreak: March – Feb 2021

Overall, how well or badly do you think each of the following have handled the coronavirus outbreak so far? If you do not know who the person is, please say so. % Net handling the Coronavirus outbreak well

+17 20% +11 February 2021 +9 +8 +10 +3 Keir Starmer 0 0% Boris Johnson -9 -7 -20%

-24

-40% Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Do you think the government has done a good job or bad job at…?

Good job Bad job Ensuring the UK has a Coronavirus vaccine

86% 7%

Ensuring the public are vaccinated as soon as possible

78% 16%

Making sure different groups of the population are vaccinated in the right order

75% 17%

Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January - 4 February 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

25 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Johnson vs Starmer: Response and recovery to COVID-19

Do you think that Boris Johnson or Keir Starmer would do a better job at managing…?

Boris Johnson Keir Starmer …Britain’s response to the Coronavirus from now until the pandemic is over

44% 27%

…Britain’s recovery from the pandemic once it is over

44% 29%

Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January - 4 February 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

26 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Familiarity with politicians How much, if anything, do you feel you know about…?

A great deal A fair amount Not very much Heard of but know nothing Never heard of them

Boris Johnson, Prime Minister

30% 55% 13% 1%

Jeremy Corbyn, former Leader of the Labour party

19% 46% 23% 8% 2%

Keir Starmer, Leader of the Labour party

6% 33% 39% 13% 7%

Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January - 4 February 2021

27 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Prime Minister material? On balance, do you agree or disagree … has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister? Net Agree Disagree Agree

Boris Johnson

42% 44% -2

Keir Starmer

36% 25% +11

Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January - 4 February 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

28 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Prime Minister material? Among own party supporters On balance, do you agree or disagree … has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister? Net Agree Disagree Agree

Boris Johnson

79% 12% +67

Keir Starmer

60% 9% +51

Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, Conservative party supporters (342), Labour party supporters (354), 29 January – 4 February 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

On balance, do you agree or disagree that … has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister?

70% % Agree 60% Theresa February 2021 May Boris 50% Johnson 42% Boris Johnson 40% Jeremy Corbyn 36% 30% Keir Starmer Keir Starmer 20%

10%

0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Which political party do you think … has the best team of leaders to deal with the country’s problems?

November 1989 – February 2021 60% Conservative government Labour government Conservative government

50% Feb 2021

40% 41% Conservatives

30%

20% 21% Labour

10%

0% 1% Lib Dems

1990 1999 2009 1989 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Latest wave base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January – 4 February 2021. c.1000 people asked each wave. Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Which political party do you think … is the most clear and united about what its policies should be?

November 1991 – February 2021 60% Conservative government Labour government Conservative government

50%

40% Feb 2021

30% 32% Conservatives

20% 16% Labour

10%

0% 2% Lib Dems

2007 2016 2021 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Latest wave base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January – 4 February 2021. c.1000 people asked each wave. Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Taking everything into account, do you think that since he became leader Keir Starmer has changed the Labour party for the better, for the worse or has he made no difference?

For the better Made no difference For the worse Don’t know Among all

48% 35% 4% 13%

Among 2019 Labour voters

54% 31% 8% 8%

Among 2019 Conservative voters

54% 36% 1% 9%

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January – 4 February 2021, 2019 Conservative voters (362), 2019 Labour voters (282)

Do you think the government has done a good job or bad job at…?

Good job Bad job

Giving you a reason to vote Labour

35% 37%

Demonstrating he has a clear vision for the country

37% 34%

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January - 4 February 2021

Would you describe Keir Starmer as….?

Decisive Indecisive

46% 28%

Someone who leads opinion Someone who follows opinion

39% 34%

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January - 4 February 2021

35 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Is the Opposition Agree Disagree ready to form the Under Keir Starmer Feb ‘21 32% 43% next Government? Aug '20 29% 47% To what extent, if at all, do you Under Jeremy Corbyn Nov '19 agree or disagree with the 32% 59% Sep '19 27% 62% following? May '17 30% 60% May '16 27% 63% Labour is ready to form the next Under Ed Miliband Government Feb '15 33% 52% Nov '14 23% 61% Jun '14 35% 52% Apr '13 29% 58% May '11 31% 57% Under Tony Blair Apr '97 55% 33% Jan '96 56% 33% Dec '94 66% 25%

Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January - 4 February 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

36 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | February 2021 Is the leader of the Agree Disagree opposition ready to Keir Starmer Feb ‘21 33% 37% be Prime Minister? Jeremy Corbyn Nov '19 24% 65% To what extent, if at all, do you Sep '19 27% 63% agree or disagree with the May '17 30% 60% following? May '16 27% 63% Ed Miliband Keir Starmer is ready to be Feb '15 33% 52% Prime Minister Nov '14 23% 61% Jun '14 35% 52% Apr '13 29% 58% May '11 31% 57% Tony Blair Apr '97 53% 34% Jan '97 54% 35% Jun '96 56% 32% Jan '96 54% 34% Dec '94 59% 28%

Base: 1,056 British adults 18+, 29 January - 4 February 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

February 2021 Political Monitor

For more information

Gideon Skinner Cameron Garrett Research Director Senior Research Executive [email protected] [email protected]

Keiran Pedley Dylan Spielman Research Director Research Executive [email protected] [email protected]

Glenn Gottfried Research Manager [email protected]