IPSOS MORI POLITICAL MONITOR June 2021
© Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential VOTING INTENTION
© Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential Voting Intention: June 2021 How do you intend to vote in the General Election? Will you vote…?
Headline voting intention All giving a voting intention
Conservative 44% Conservative 40%
Labour 35% Labour 37%
Lib Dems 6% Lib Dem 8%
Green 7% Green 5%
Other 8% Other 10%
Conservative lead = +9 Conservative lead = +3
th rd Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 28 May – 3 June 2021; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 637. Margin of error is Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.
3 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Headline voting intention: Since the 2015 General Election How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?
% Corbyn elected May as PM Johnson as PM Starmer elected (Sept 15) (July 16) (July 19) (Apr 20) 60 June 2021 50 44% Conservative 40 35% 30 Labour
20
10
0
Jul20 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19
Jun 21 Jun
Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21
Mar16 Mar17 Mar18 Mar19 Mar20 Mar21
Sep 19 Sep Sep15 Nov15 Sep16 Nov16 Sep17 Nov17 Sep18 Nov18 Nov19 Sep20 Nov20
May May 21 May 15 May 16 May 17 May 18 May 19 May 20 General Election
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019
4 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – June ‘21 How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?
% Cameron elected Brown as PM Miliband elected Corbyn elected May as PM Johnson as PM Starmer elected (Dec 05) (June 07) (Sept 10) (Sept 15) (July 16) (July 19) (Apr 20) 60
June 50 2021
44% Conservative 40
35% Labour 30
20
7% Green 10 6% Lib Dem Brexit Party/Reform UK
0 UKIP
Jul04 Jul05 Jul06 Jul07 Jul08 Jul09 Jul10 Jul11 Jul12 Jul13 Jul14 Jul15 Jul16 Jul17 Jul18 Jul19 Jul20
Apr 10 Apr Oct11 20 Apr Apr04 Oct 04 Apr05 Oct 05 Apr06 Oct 06 Apr07 Oct 07 Apr08 Oct 08 Apr09 Oct 09 Oct 10 Apr11 Apr12 Oct 12 Apr13 Oct 13 Apr14 Oct 14 Apr15 Oct 15 Apr16 Oct 16 Apr17 Oct 17 Apr18 Oct 18 Apr19 Oct 19 Oct 20 Apr21
Jan 07 Jan 17 Jan Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan Jan 04 Jan General Election
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019
5 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
© Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential Economic Optimism Index
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
June 2021 January 2007– June 2021 80
31% 70 Get worse 4% 60 13% 53% 50 Improve 31% Stay the same 40 53% 31% 30 Get worse 53% Improve 13% 20 4% 13% Don’t know 10 Stay the same
0
EOI = +22
21
-
Jul-07 Jul-17
Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-15 Oct-15 Oct-16 Apr-20 Apr-21
Jun-19 Jan-07 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jun-16 Jan-18 Jun-18
Feb-16 Feb-17
Dec-09 Dec-07 Aug-08 Dec-08 Aug-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Dec-18 Dec-19 Aug-20 Dec-20
May-14 May-11 May-12 May-13 Jun
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 28 May - 3 June 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
7 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Economic Optimism Index (1998-2021) Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
40
20 Net optimism +22% 0
-20
-40
-60
-80
Jul2011 Jul1999 Jul2002 Jul2005 Jul2008 Jul2014 Jul2017 Jul2020
Oct1998 Apr2000 Oct2001 Apr2003 Oct2004 Apr2006 Oct2007 Apr2009 Oct2010 Apr2012 Oct2013 Apr2015 Oct2016 Apr2018 Oct2019 Apr2021
Jan 1998 Jan 2001 Jan 2004 Jan 2007 Jan 2010 Jan 2013 Jan 2016 Jan 2019 Jun 2021 Jun
Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
8 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 SATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
© Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: June 2021
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is running the country / doing his job as Prime Minister /Leader of the Labour Party?
Boris Johnson Keir Starmer The Government Dissatisfied
47% 51% 48%
Don’t know 8% 8% 27%
44% 44% 22% Satisfied Net= -3 Net= -29 Net= -4 +1.5% swing -9.5% swing +1.5% swing from April 2021 from April 2021 from April 2021
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 28 May - 3 June 2021. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
10 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Boris Johnson: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?
June 2021 July 2019 – June 2021 100 44% 90 Satisfied 80 70
47% 44% 8% 60 Don’t know 47% 50 Dissatisfied 47% 40 44% Dissatisfied 30 Satisfied 8% 20 Net = -3 10
0
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 28 May - 3 June 2021
Jul-19 Jul-20
Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21
Jan-19 Jun-20 Jan-21 Jun-21
Mar-20 Mar-21
Feb-19 Feb-21
Sep-19 Dec-19 Aug-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Dec-20
May-20 May-21
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
11 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Boris Johnson: Satisfaction among Conservative supporters Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?
June 2021 July 2019 – June 2021 100
90 15% 78% Satisfied 80 78% Satisfied 7% 70 7% 60 Don’t know 50
40 78% 15% Dissatisfied 30 20
Net = +63 10 15% Dissatisfied 0
Base: 324 Conservative party supporters aged 18+, 28 May - 3 June 2021.
Jul-19 Jul-20
Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21
Jan-20 Jun-20 Jan-21 Jun-21
Mar-20 Mar-21
Feb-20 Feb-21
Sep-19 Dec-19 Aug-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Dec-20
May-20 May-21
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
12 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2021)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as prime minister?
Johnson
Blair
May
Cameron Net Net satisfaction Major
Brown
Thatcher
Johnson
Number of months after becoming prime minister
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
13 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2021)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country?
Johnson’s Gov
Blair’s gov
Cameron’s gov
May’s gov Net satisfaction
Thatcher’s gov
Brown’s gov
Major’s gov
Johnson’s gov
Number of months after assuming government
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
14 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Keir Starmer: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
June 2021 June 2020 – June 2021 100 22% 90 80 22% Satisfied 70 27% 60 Don’t know 51% 51% 50 Dissatisfied 40 27% 51% Dissatisfied 30 20 22% Satisfied Net = -29 10
0
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 28 May - 3 June 2021
Jul-20
Oct-20 Apr-21
Jun-20 Jan-21 Jun-21
Mar-21
Feb-21
Aug-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 May-21
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
15 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2021) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
Starmer
Starmer Cameron
Corbyn Howard
Miliband Duncan-smith
Blair Hague Net satisfactionNet Smith
Kinnock
Foot
Number of months after becoming opposition leader
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
16 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders Starmer vs Corbyn How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
Starmer Starmer 40
Corbyn 20
0 Net satisfaction Net -20
-40 -29
-60
-80 Number of months after becoming opposition leader
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
17 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Keir Starmer: Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
June 2021 June 2020 – June 2021 100 39% 90 Satisfied 80 70 39% 47% 15% 60 Don’t know 47% 50 Dissatisfied 47% 40 39% Dissatisfied 30 Satisfied 15% 20
Net = -8 10
0
Base: 272 Labour party supporters aged 18+, 28 May - 3 June 2021
Jul-20
Oct-20 Apr-21
Jun-20 Jan-21 Jun-21
Mar-21
Feb-21
Aug-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 May-21
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
18 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Keir Starmer: Net satisfaction
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
% Net satisfied 75 +66% +56% +51% +50% 55
+31% +31% +33% 35 +22% +16% +19% +15% +12% 15 +5% +5% Among +14% Labour +9% -9% -10% -8% -5 voters -1% -5% -6% -12% -29% -25 -15% -16% Among all
-45 Among Conservative -47% -65 voters Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21
Source: Ipsos MORI Base: c.1000 British adults each month.
19 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Ed Davey: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Davey is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?
June 2021 September 2020 – June 2021 100 16% 90 16% Satisfied 80 29% 70 55% 60 Don’t know 50 29% 40 29% Dissatisfied 30 Dissatisfied 55% 20 Net = -13 16% 10 Satisfied 0
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 28 May - 3 June 2021
Apr-21 Oct-20
Jan-21 Jun-21
Mar-21
Feb-21
Sep-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 May-21
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
20 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
© Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential Economic Optimism Index
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
June 2021 January 2007– June 2021 80
31% 70 Get worse 4% 60 13% 53% 50 Improve 31% Stay the same 40 53% 31% 30 Get worse 53% Improve 13% 20 4% 13% Don’t know 10 Stay the same
0
EOI = +22
21
-
Jul-07 Jul-17
Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-15 Oct-15 Oct-16 Apr-20 Apr-21
Jun-19 Jan-07 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jun-16 Jan-18 Jun-18
Feb-16 Feb-17
Dec-09 Dec-07 Aug-08 Dec-08 Aug-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Dec-18 Dec-19 Aug-20 Dec-20
May-14 May-11 May-12 May-13 Jun
Base: x,xxx British adults 18+, xxx June 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
22 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Economic Optimism Index (1998-2021) Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
40
20 Net optimism +22% 0
-20
-40
-60
-80
Jul2011 Jul1999 Jul2002 Jul2005 Jul2008 Jul2014 Jul2017 Jul2020
Oct1998 Apr2000 Oct2001 Apr2003 Oct2004 Apr2006 Oct2007 Apr2009 Oct2010 Apr2012 Oct2013 Apr2015 Oct2016 Apr2018 Oct2019 Apr2021
Jan 1998 Jan 2001 Jan 2004 Jan 2007 Jan 2010 Jan 2013 Jan 2016 Jan 2019 Jun 2021 Jun
Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
23 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 LABOUR THE LEADERSHIP CORONAVIRUS CONTEST
© Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential Handling of the Very/fairly well Very/fairly badly Net well Coronavirus Rishi Sunak, Chancellor of the Exchequer outbreak 51% 16% +35 Overall, how well or badly The Government do you think each of the following have handled 44% 38% +6 the coronavirus outbreak so far? If you do not know Boris Johnson who the person is, please 43% 39% say so. +4 Matt Hancock, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care 33% 44% -11 Keir Starmer, Leader of the Labour party 17% 34% -17
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 28 May - 3 June 2021
25 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 The Government’s handling of the Coronavirus outbreak Overall, how well or badly do you think the Government has handled the coronavirus outbreak so far?
March 2020 – June 2021 60% 50% 50% 49% 47% 50% 44% 46% 44% 45% 44% 42% Very/fairly well 40% 45% 40% 40% 41% Very/fairly badly 37% 38% 38% 30% 35% 32% 30% 20%
10%
0%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month
26 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Handling of the Coronavirus outbreak: March 2020 – June 2021 Overall, how well or badly do you think … has handled the coronavirus outbreak so far?
% Saying each has handled the Coronavirus well 70%
60%
50% 51% Sunak
40% 44% Johnson
30% 33% Hancock
20% 17% Starmer 10%
0%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month
27 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Handling of the Coronavirus outbreak: March 2020 – June 2021
Overall, how well or badly do you think each of the following have handled the coronavirus outbreak so far? If you do not know who the person is, please say so. % Net handling the Coronavirus outbreak well
+17 20% +11 +9 +8 +10 June 2021 +3 +4 0 +0 +1 Boris Johnson 0%
-3 -4 -9 -7 -20% Keir Starmer -17 -24
-40%
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 How have the Government performed on vaccinations?
Do you think the government has done a good job or bad job at ensuring the public are vaccinated as soon as possible?
June 2021 Feb 2021– June 2021 100
90 10% 82% 82% Good job 80 Satisfied 8% 70 8% 60 Don’t know 50
40 10% 30 82% Bad job 20
Net = +72 10 10% Dissatisfied 0
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 28 May - 3 June 2021
Apr-21
Jun-21
Feb-21 Mar-21 May-21
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
29 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 When should an inquiry into the This summer 39% government’s handling of the This autumn 17% pandemic begin? Spring 2022 17% As you may know, the government has announced Later in 2022 9% there will be an independent public inquiry into the government’s handling of the In 2023 or later 8% coronavirus pandemic. When, if at all, do you think I do not think there should be an inquiry 6% the inquiry should begin? Don't know 4%
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 28 May - 3 June 2021
30 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 When should an 19% inquiry into the This summer 53% government’s 15% This autumn handling of the 21% pandemic begin? 22% Spring 2022 15% As you may know, the 14% government has announced Later in 2022 there will be an independent 5% public inquiry into the 14% In 2023 or later government’s handling of the 3% coronavirus pandemic. 14% When, if at all, do you think I do not think there Among Conservative should be an inquiry 1% supporters the inquiry should begin? 2% Don't know Among Labour 1% supporters
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, including Conservative supporters (324) and Labour supporters (272), 28 May - 3 June 2021
31 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Who do you trust most: Hancock Matt Hancock 35% or Cummings?
Who do you trust most to Dominic Cummings 18% tell the truth about the government’s handling of Neither 34% the coronavirus pandemic, Matt Hancock (the Health Secretary) or Dominic Both equally 1% Cummings (the former Chief Advisor to the Prime Don't know Minister)? If you do not who they are 7% know who they are please say so. Don't know 5%
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 28 May - 3 June 2021
32 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Who do you trust 63% most: Hancock Matt Hancock or Cummings? 22% 7% Dominic Cummings Who do you trust most to 31% tell the truth about the government’s handling of 18% Neither the coronavirus pandemic, 40% Matt Hancock (the Health 1% Secretary) or Dominic Both equally Cummings (the former Chief * Advisor to the Prime Don't know 6% Minister)? If you do not Among Conservative who they are 4% know who they are please supporters say so. 5% Don't know Among Labour 4% supporters
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, including Conservative supporters (324) and Labour supporters (272), 28 May - 3 June 2021
33 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 PARTY LEADERS
© Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential 40% Johnson A capable leader Leader image: 26% lead +14 35% Johnson v Starmer Good in a crisis Johnson 18% lead +17 I am going to read out some Has sound judgement 28% Johnson things both favourable and 26% lead +2 Understands the 43% Johnson unfavourable that have been problems facing Britain 37% lead +6 said about various Out of touch 56% Starmer politicians. Which of these, if with ordinary people 41% lead -15 61% Johnson any, do you think apply to… Has got a lot of personality 16% lead +45 Gives me confidence 34% Johnson for Britain’s future 15% lead +19 60% Johnson Patriotic 38% lead +22 More honest 22% Starmer than most politicians 29% lead +7 41% Starmer More style than substance Boris Keir 28% lead -13 A good representative for Johnson Johnson Starmer 34% Britain on the world stage 25% lead +9
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 28th May – 3rd June 2021
35 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 26% A capable leader Leader image: 44% 18% Starmer trend Good in a crisis 31% I am going to read out some Has sound judgement 26% things both favourable and 43% Understands the 37% unfavourable that have been problems facing Britain 50% said about various Out of touch 41% politicians. Which of these, if with ordinary people 27% 16% any, do you think apply to… Has got a lot of personality 25% Gives me confidence 15% Keir for Britain’s future 29% Starmer 38% Patriotic June ‘21 43% Keir More honest 29% than most politicians 36% Starmer 28% More style than substance Sept ‘20 21% A good representative for 25% Britain on the world stage 42%
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 28th May – 3rd June 2021
36 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 40% A capable leader Leader image: 37% 35% Johnson trend Good in a crisis 32% I am going to read out some Has sound judgement 28% things both favourable and 30% Understands the 43% unfavourable that have been problems facing Britain 43% said about various Out of touch 56% politicians. Which of these, if with ordinary people 58% 61% any, do you think apply to… Has got a lot of personality 67% Gives me confidence 34% Boris for Britain’s future 30% Johnson 60% Patriotic June ‘21 68% Boris More honest 22% than most politicians 27% Johnson 41% More style than substance Sept ‘20 46% A good representative for 34% Britain on the world stage 30%
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 28th May – 3rd June 2021
37 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Prime Minister material? On balance, do you agree or disagree … has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister? Net Agree Disagree Agree
Boris Johnson 45% 43% +2 Andy Burnham 37% 26% +11 Rishi Sunak 36% 29% +7
Sadiq Khan 29% 43% -14 Keir Starmer 24% 48% -24 Angela Rayner 18% 32% -14 Lisa Nandy 15% 29% -14 Michael Gove 13% 60% -47
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 28 May - 3 June 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
38 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Prime Minister material? Among own party supporters On balance, do you agree or disagree … has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister? Net Agree Disagree Agree
Boris Johnson 79% 12% +67 Andy Burnham 59% 12% +47 Rishi Sunak 58% 19% +39
Keir Starmer 48% 30% +18 Sadiq Khan 46% 26% +20 Angela Rayner 41% 16% +25 Lisa Nandy 29% 17% +12 Michael Gove 26% 49% -23
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, including Conservative supporters (324) and Labour supporters (272), 28 May - 3 June 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
39 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Having what it takes to be a good Prime Minister: 2016-2021
On balance, do you agree or disagree that … has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister?
70% % Agree 60% Theresa June 2021 May Boris 50% Johnson 45% Boris Johnson 40% Jeremy Corbyn 30% Keir 24% Starmer Keir Starmer 20%
10%
0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Does Boris Johnson have what it takes it to be a good Prime Minister?
On balance, do you agree or disagree that Boris Johnson has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister?
80% 2016 Brexit Referendum Became Prime Minister 70% June 2021 60%
50% 45% Agree 40%
30% 43% Disagree 20%
10%
0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Does the Leader of the Opposition have what it takes it to be a good Prime Minister?
On balance, do you agree or disagree that Keir Starmer has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister?
80%
70%
60% June 2021 Keir 50% Jeremy Corbyn Starmer 48% 40% Disagree
30%
20% 24% Agree 10%
0% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Having what it takes to be a good Prime Minister: Andy Burnham, 2015 vs 2021 On balance, do you agree or disagree that Andy Burham has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister? Net Agree Disagree Agree
Among all Britons
Jun-21 37% 26% +11
Jul-15 27% 27% 0
Among Labour party supporters Jun-21 59% 12% +47
Jul-15 43% 19% +24
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, including Conservative supporters (324) and Labour supporters (272), 28 May - 3 June 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Changing party Boris Johnson: June 2021 Among all 40% 39% leader: Conservative supporters 22% 70% Conservatives July 2019 Among all 29% 47% Conservative supporters 10% Please tell me to what 83% extent, if at all, you agree or Theresa May: July 2018 disagree with the following Among all 46% 31% statement: The Conservative supporters 34% 51% Conservative Party should September 2017 change its leader before the Among all 45% 38% next general election Conservative supporters 28% 61%
David Cameron: October 2015 Among all 39% 32% Conservative supporters 25% 55% June 2014 Among all 27% 47% Conservative supporters 9% 79%
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, including Conservative supporters (324) and Labour supporters (272), 28 May - 3 June 2021
44 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Changing party Keir Starmer: June 2021 Among all 50% 26% leader: Labour supporters 48% 39%
Labour Jeremy Corbyn: July 2019 Among all 62% 23% Please tell me to what Labour supporters 37% 50% extent, if at all, you agree or July 2018 Among all 55% 27% disagree with the following Labour supporters 37% 49% statement: The Labour September 2017 Party should change its Among all 43% 43% leader before the next Labour supporters 21% 61% July 2016 general election Among all 66% 25% Labour supporters 54% 41% October 2015 Among all 42% 31% Labour supporters 27% 47%
Ed Miliband: June 2014 Among all 49% 30% Labour supporters 44% 47%
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, including Conservative supporters (324) and Labour supporters (272), 28 May - 3 June 2021
45 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Changing Party leader
Please tell me to what extent, if at all, you agree or disagree with the following statement: The Labour/Conservative Party should change its leader before the next general election
% Agree Corbyn elected May as PM GE2017 Johnson as PM GE2019 Starmer elected (September 2015) (July 2016) (June 2017) (July 2019) (Dec 2019) (April 2020) 80%
66% 62% 60% 55% 49% 50% Labour 42% 43% 40% 45% 46% Conservatives 39% 40%
29% 20% 27%
0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Ipsos MORI
June 2021 Political Monitor
For more information
Gideon Skinner Cameron Garrett Research Director Senior Research Executive [email protected] [email protected]
Keiran Pedley Research Director [email protected]
Glenn Gottfried Research Manager [email protected]