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IPSOS MORI POLITICAL MONITOR June 2021

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IPSOS MORI POLITICAL MONITOR June 2021 IPSOS MORI POLITICAL MONITOR June 2021 © Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential VOTING INTENTION © Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential Voting Intention: June 2021 How do you intend to vote in the General Election? Will you vote…? Headline voting intention All giving a voting intention Conservative 44% Conservative 40% Labour 35% Labour 37% Lib Dems 6% Lib Dem 8% Green 7% Green 5% Other 8% Other 10% Conservative lead = +9 Conservative lead = +3 th rd Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 28 May – 3 June 2021; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 637. Margin of error is Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures. 3 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 40 50 60 10 20 30 4 % How would you vote election tomorrow? werean you wouldif there vote How Since the 2015 General Election Headline voting intention: Elections. Elections. Note small change in methodology approach in to prompting Brexit Party in 2019 July Base: 0 c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July turnout 2015 filter is “all May 15 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Monitor | June © IpsosPoliticalIpsosMORI | 2021 Jul 15 Sep 15 15) (Sept elected Corbyn Nov 15 Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 16) (July PM as May Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17 Mar 17 May 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Nov 17 Jan 18 Mar 18 9/ 10 10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General May 18 Jul 18 Sep 18 Nov 18 Johnson as PM as Johnson Jan 19 Mar 19 19) (July May 19 Jul 19 Sep 19 elected Starmer Nov 19 (Apr 20) (Apr Jan 20 Mar 20 May 20 Jul 20 Sep 20 Nov 20 Jan 21 Mar 21 MayJun 2121 Source: Source: 2021 June Labour 35% Conservative 44% General Election General Ipsos Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 5 How would you vote election tomorrow? werean you wouldif there vote How January ‘04 Headline voting intention: Elections. Elections. Note small change methodology in in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019 Base: % Jan 04 c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July turnout 2015 filter is “all Apr 04 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Monitor | June © IpsosPoliticalIpsosMORI | 2021 Jul 04 elected Cameron Oct 04 Jan 05 Apr 05 05) (Dec Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr 06 Jul 06 Oct 06 Jan 07 Apr 07 07 (June PM as Brown Jul 07 – Oct 07 Jan 08 June ‘21 Apr 08 ) Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 10) (Sept elected Miliband Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 9/ Jul 12 10 10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 elected Corbyn Jul 14 Oct 14 15) (Sept Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 16) (July PM as May Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 PM as Johnson Jul 18 Oct 18 Source: Source: Jan 19 19) (July Apr 19 Ipsos Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Jul 19 Oct 19 Jan 20 Apr 20 20) (Apr Starmer Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 elected Apr 21 2021 June UKIP UK Party/Reform Brexit 6% Lib Dem Lib 6% Green 7% Labour 35% Conservative 44% General Election General ECONOMIC OPTIMISM © Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential Economic Optimism Index Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? June 2021 January 2007– June 2021 80 31% 70 Get worse 4% 60 13% 53% 50 Improve 31% Stay the same 40 53% 31% 30 Get worse 53% Improve 13% 20 4% 13% Don’t know 10 Stay the same 0 EOI = +22 21 - Jul-07 Jul-17 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-15 Oct-15 Oct-16 Apr-20 Apr-21 Jun-19 Jan-07 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jun-16 Jan-18 Jun-18 Feb-16 Feb-17 Dec-09 Dec-07 Aug-08 Dec-08 Aug-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Dec-18 Dec-19 Aug-20 Dec-20 May-14 May-11 May-12 May-13 Jun Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 28 May - 3 June 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 7 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 8 -80 -60 -40 -20 worse over months? 12 the next over worse get stay the same or willimprove, conditionof thecountry economic general thinkthatthe Do you (1998 Economic Optimism Index Base: 20 40 0 c.1,000 c.1,000 Jan 1998 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Monitor | June © IpsosPoliticalIpsosMORI | 2021 British British adults 18+ each month Oct 1998 Jul 1999 - 2021) Apr 2000 Jan 2001 Oct 2001 Jul 2002 Apr 2003 Jan 2004 Oct 2004 Jul 2005 Apr 2006 Jan 2007 Oct 2007 Jul 2008 Apr 2009 Jan 2010 Oct 2010 Jul 2011 Apr 2012 Jan 2013 Oct 2013 Jul 2014 Apr 2015 Jan 2016 Oct 2016 Jul 2017 Apr 2018 Jan 2019 Oct 2019 Jul 2020 JunApr 20212021 Source: Source: +22% optimism Net Ipsos Ipsos MORI Political Monitor SATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS © Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: June 2021 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is running the country / doing his job as Prime Minister /Leader of the Labour Party? Boris Johnson Keir Starmer The Government Dissatisfied 47% 51% 48% Don’t know 8% 8% 27% 44% 44% 22% Satisfied Net= -3 Net= -29 Net= -4 +1.5% swing -9.5% swing +1.5% swing from April 2021 from April 2021 from April 2021 Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 28 May - 3 June 2021. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 10 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Boris Johnson: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister? June 2021 July 2019 – June 2021 100 44% 90 Satisfied 80 70 47% 44% 8% 60 Don’t know 47% 50 Dissatisfied 47% 40 44% Dissatisfied 30 Satisfied 8% 20 Net = -3 10 0 Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 28 May - 3 June 2021 Jul-19 Jul-20 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Jan-19 Jun-20 Jan-21 Jun-21 Mar-20 Mar-21 Feb-19 Feb-21 Sep-19 Dec-19 Aug-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 May-20 May-21 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 11 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Boris Johnson: Satisfaction among Conservative supporters Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister? June 2021 July 2019 – June 2021 100 90 15% 78% Satisfied 80 78% Satisfied 7% 70 7% 60 Don’t know 50 40 78% 15% Dissatisfied 30 20 Net = +63 10 15% Dissatisfied 0 Base: 324 Conservative party supporters aged 18+, 28 May - 3 June 2021. Jul-19 Jul-20 Oct-19 Apr-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Jan-20 Jun-20 Jan-21 Jun-21 Mar-20 Mar-21 Feb-20 Feb-21 Sep-19 Dec-19 Aug-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 May-20 May-21 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 12 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2021) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as prime minister? Johnson Blair May Cameron Net satisfaction Net Major Brown Thatcher Johnson Number of months after becoming prime minister Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 13 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2021) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country? Johnson’s Gov Blair’s gov Cameron’s gov May’s gov satisfaction Net Thatcher’s gov Brown’s gov Major’s gov Johnson’s gov Number of months after assuming government Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 14 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Keir Starmer: Satisfaction Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? June 2021 June 2020 – June 2021 100 22% 90 80 22% Satisfied 70 27% 60 Don’t know 51% 51% 50 Dissatisfied 40 27% 51% Dissatisfied 30 20 22% Satisfied Net = -29 10 0 Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 28 May - 3 June 2021 Jul-20 Oct-20 Apr-21 Jun-20 Jan-21 Jun-21 Mar-21 Feb-21 Aug-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 May-21 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 15 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2021) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? Starmer Starmer Cameron Corbyn Howard Miliband Duncan-smith Blair Hague Net satisfactionNet Smith Kinnock Foot Number of months after becoming opposition leader Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 16 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | June 2021 Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders Starmer vs Corbyn How
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    PHONE BANK SCRIPT at ’s campaign, is th r on Keir Starmer AME], a voluntee de for ello, I’m [YOUR N llot paper to deci H ’ll receive your ba E]?Next week you e Minister. [THEIR NAM d be our next Prim e Labour Party an u want to lead th u planning on who yo d country – are yo n for our party an It’s a huge decisio voting? YES UNDECIDED/UNSURE That’s great. Could you tell us This is a very important election – there’s a lot at who you are voting for? stake choosing the leader of the Labour Party – and you can only exercise your choice if you vote. Keir is the candidate who will unite the party, bring all parts KEIR STARMER of the party together and take the fight to the Tories. cal, he Thanks so much. That’s great He has promised to keep our party radi wnership news. Thank you so much for opposes austerity, he supports common o in public your support, the whole team and he believes public services should be really appreciates it. Goodbye! hands. [log in the phone app] Thanks so much for your time and I do hope when you get your ballot paper you can support Keir as the LISA NANDY members choice. Goodbye! Thanks for letting me know. You may know this is a preferential ballot which means you can put a second choice. Would you consider putting Keir Starmer second? Thanks so much and it’s been lovely to talk to you.
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