Commutation Trends in the Hudson Valley with County Level Detail 2015-2017

COMMUTATION TRENDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH COUNTY LEVEL DETAIL 2015-2017

MARIST COLLEGE

Dr. Christy Huebner Caridi Marist Bureau of Economic Research School of Management Poughkeepsie, New York 12601

December 2019

This report is available on the Bureau of Economic Research homepage at http://www.marist.edu/management/bureau

The support of student research assistant Becky Lopez is acknowledged and appreciated.

Commutation Flows: Hudson Valley Summary

Consistent with trend, growth in the number of Hudson Valley residents who held a job continued to outpace growth in employment opportunities within the region. As a result, labor market efficiency — the relationship between the demand and supply of jobs within a given geographic region — continues to decline. On the year, efficiency fell from -129,015 in 2016 to - 123,136 in 2017. Overall, as of 2017, 56.5 percent of all Hudson Valley residents who held a job commuted to work, while 26.8 percent of all commutation was intra-regional.

Hudson Valley Labor Market Efficiency 2015 2016 2017 Net Outflow/Inflow -122,176 -129,015 -123,136 Employed in the Hudson Valley 793,162 807,591 815,040 Living in the Hudson Valley 915,338 936,606 938,176

All Primary Jobs Held in the Hudson Valley as a percentage of Total Jobs Held, All Primary Jobs Held in the Hudson Valley as a percentage of Total Commutation: 2017 Other Hudson Other Hudson All Hudson Valley Home County as a Valley Counties as Valley Counties as as a Percent of all Percent of all a Percent of all a Percent of Total Primary Jobs Held Primary Jobs Held Primary Jobs Held Commutation Dutchess 72.7% 46.6% 26.1% 45.3% Orange 66.0% 46.6% 19.4% 33.5% Putnam 59.9% 19.9% 39.9% 46.0% Rockland 54.8% 41.6% 13.2% 20.8% Sullivan 73.8% 46.0% 27.7% 46.9% Ulster 74.1% 43.8% 30.3% 49.4% Westchester 48.6% 44.4% 4.2% 7.0% Hudson Valley 58.6% 43.5% 15.1% 26.8% Employment within the Hudson Valley remains the norm, at 58.6 percent of all primary jobs held. Ulster County residents are the most dependent on intra-regional employment at 74.1 percent of all primary jobs held. Westchester County is the least dependent at 48.57 percent. Commutation to New York City (NYC) remains significant at 43.4 percent of all commutation and 24.5 percent of all primary jobs held; New York County provided the most jobs at 143,688. Other important sources of commutation include Long Island, New Jersey, and Connecticut.

1 All Primary Jobs Held in New York City as a percentage of total Jobs Held, All Primary Jobs Held in New York City as a percentage of Total Commutation: 2017 Primary Jobs Held in Primary Jobs Held in All Primary Jobs Held in NYC as a Percent of all NYC as a Percent of Total NYC Primary Jobs Held Commutation Dutchess 14,854 12.3% 23.0% Orange 25,260 16.5% 30.8% Putnam 9,479 21.6% 27.0% Rockland 29,695 22.6% 38.6% Sullivan 2,414 8.7% 16.1% Ulster 7,284 10.3% 18.4% Westchester 140,843 36.1% 65.0% Hudson Valley 229,829 24.5% 43.4%

Primary Commutation By Area 2015, 2016, 2017 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Albany New York City Long Island Connecticut New Jersey Penn All other County 2015 192,549 34,896 27,793 32,538 273 6,707 67,200 2016 200,446 37,507 27,904 32,088 286 6,773 68,939 2017 203,373 37,983 27,504 32,416 295 6,780 68,928

The most important working-age demographic in the region is those individuals aged 30 to 54. This demographic has the highest labor-force participation rate — above 69.6 percent in 2017 — and accounts for more than 53.2 percent of all primary jobs held. The number of individuals aged 55 and older holding a primary job continues to advance, rising from 243,748 primary jobs held in 2015 to 248,690 in 2017. Consistent with the increase in the number of jobs held, labor market participation by individuals aged 55 and older rose from 58.1 percent of all eligible workers in 2015 to 59.1 percent in 2017. The youngest demographic, those aged 29 and younger, represented 20.3 percent of all primary jobholders in 2017, down slightly on the year. Labor force participation among workers aged 29 and younger was down on the year.

2 Labor Participation Rate by Age 2015, 2016, 2017

2017 61.8% 50.6% 69.6% 59.2%

2016 62.1% 52.9% 69.3% 58.3%

2015 61.2% 49.9% 69.2% 58.1%

Workers All Ages Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 and older

Primary Jobs Held by Age of Workers 2015, 2016, 2017

236,651 243,748 248,690

497,751 500,550 499,061

180,936 192,308 190,425

2015 2016 2017

Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 or older

The increase in the number of jobholders aged 55 and older can be explained in part by the aging of the baby-boomer generation. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, between the years 2015 and 2017 the number of persons living in the Hudson Valley aged 55 to 69 increased by 10,948 while the number of persons aged 30 to 54 declined by 12,974. An important secondary issue is the continued impact of the Great Recession on retirement. Job losses, in concert with stagnant housing values and low interest rates, have seriously impacted retirement security.

In 2017, the maximum number of Hudson Valley residents who held more than one job was 89,778, up 1,182 on the year. The majority of multiple jobholders were aged 30 to 54 followed by workers aged 55 and older.

3 Maximum Number Of Persons Holding More Than One Job 2015, 2016, 2017

20,914 21,653 19,334

42,731 45,422 45,637

17,624 19,260 19,488

2015 2016 2017

Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 or older

4 Dutchess County Commutation Flows

Consistent with trend, the number of Dutchess County residents who held a job continued to outpace the employment Chart 1: Dutchess County: Labor Market Efficiency opportunities within the county. On the 2015 2016 2017 year, labor market efficiency declined Net Outflow/Inflow -19,968 -19,391 -19,885 from -19,391 in 2016 to -19,885 in Employed in Dutchess 98,366 100,653 101,170 2017 (see Chart 1). Living in Dutchess 118,334 120,044 121,055

Figure 1: Percent and Number of Figure 2: Percent and Number of Dutchess County Workers Employed in Dutchess County Workers who Dutchess County Commuted Interregionally

31,137 56,222 56,836 26.3% 31,638 47.5% 47.3% 56,427 31,183 26.1% 46.6% 26.0%

2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017

Year-over-year, the number of residents who worked in the county was little changed, falling from 56,836 (47.3 percent) of all employed residents in 2016 to 56,427 (46.6 percent) of all employed residents in 2017 (see Figure 1). Employment outside the county rose 1,420 on the year, from 63,208 in 2016 to 64,628 in 2017.

Interregional employment accounted for 31,638 (26.1 percent) of all primary jobs held and 45.3 percent of all commutation (see AROUND HALF OF ALL DUTCHESS Figure 2). Within the region, the most COUNTY RESIDENTS WHO HELD A JOB COMMUTED TO WORK. important source of commuter employment was Westchester County at 19.0 percent of total commutation, 11.0 percent of all primary jobs held; Orange County was a distant second at 9.2 percent of all commutation, 5.3 percent of all primary jobs held. Outside the region, New York City (NYC) continued to be the most important source of commuter employment at 21.3 percent of all commutation (14,854 jobs) and 12.3 percent of all primary jobs held. New York County (Manhattan) provided the most jobs at 9,107, up 262 primary jobs on the year. Commutation to the Long Island Region provided 2,323 jobs in

5 2017, little changed on the year (see Figure 3).

Figure 3: Primary Commutation By Area; 2015, 2016, 2017 35,000 30,000 25,000 Interregional 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Hudson Valley New York City Long Isand Connecticut New Jersey Albany County All Other 2015 31,137 13,696 2,143 3,551 402 1,716 9,467 2016 31,183 14,321 2,119 3,660 407 1,742 9,776 2017 31,638 14,854 2,323 3,807 431 1,757 9,818

The largest working-age demographic in Dutchess County consists of individuals aged 30 to 54. This demographic has the highest labor-force participation rate — above 69.3 percent in

Figure 4: Labor Participation Rate by Age; 2015, 2016, 2017

2017 59.9% 48.3% 69.3% 56.6%

2016 60.3% 51.8% 68.6% 55.2%

2015 60.9% 50.2% 70.4% 55.9%

Workers All Ages Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 to 69

2017 — and accounts for 52.0 percent (62,947) of all primary jobs held, a 0.2 percent increase on the year. The number of individuals aged 55 or older holding a primary job continues to advance, rising from 31,517 primary-jobs held in 2016 to 32,661 in 2017. Consistent with the increase in the number of jobs held, labor market participation by individuals aged 55 or older posted a slight increase, rising from 55.2 percent of all eligible workers in 2016 to 56.6 percent in 2017. The youngest demographic, those aged 29 or younger, represented 21.0 percent of all primary jobholders in 2017, minimally changed on the year. Labor force participation among workers aged 29 or younger was down on the year, falling from 51.8 percent in 2016 to 48.3

6 percent in 2017 (see Figures 4 and 5).

FIGURE 5: PRIMARY JOBS HELD BY AGE OF WORKER; 2015, 2016 2017

30,462 31,517 32,661

63,275 62,846 62,947

24,597 25,681 25,447

2015 2016 2017

Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 or older

The increase in the number of jobholders aged 55 or older can be explained in part by the aging of the baby-boomer generation. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, between the years 2015 and 2017 the number of persons living in Dutchess County aged of 55 to 69 increased 2,394 while the number of persons aged 30 to 54 declined 2,519. An important secondary issue is the continued impact of the Great Recession on retirement security.

In 2017, the maximum number of Dutchess County residents who held more than one job was 10,898, up slightly on the year. The majority of multiple jobholders were aged 30 to 54

FIGURE 6: MAXIMUM NUMBER OF PERSONS HOLDING A SECOND JOB BY AGE; 2015, 2016, 2017

2,346 2,419 2,551

5,530 5,715 5,676

2,448 2,673 2,671

2015 2016 2017

Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 or older

followed by workers aged 29 or younger (see Figure 6).

7 Orange County Commutation Flows

Consistent with the near-term trend, the number of Orange County residents who held a job continued to outpace employment Chart 1: Orange County: Labor Market Efficiency opportunities within the county, albeit 2015 2016 2017 Net Outflow/Inflow -28,349 -29,304 -28,347 the gap is closing. On the year, labor Employed in Orange 121,727 123,352 125,000 market efficiency improved, advancing Living in Orange 150,076 152,656 153,347 from -29,304 in 2016 to -28,347 in 2017 (see Chart 1).

Figure 1: Percent and Number of Figure 2: Percent and Number of Orange County Workers Employed in Orange County Workers who Orange County Commuted Interregionally

70,596 29,267 71,567 47.0% 19.50% 29,759 46.9% 71,392 29,398 19.41% 46.6% 19.26%

2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017

Year-over-year, the number of Orange County residents who worked in Orange County fell slightly from 71,567 (46.9 percent) in 2016 to 71,392 (46.6 percent) in 2017 (see Figure 1), while commutation rose from 81,089 in 2016 to 81,955 in 2017. Interregional commutation accounted for MORE THAN ONE HALF OF ALL ORANGE 29,759 (19.4 percent) of all primary jobs held and COUNTY RESIDENTS WHO HELD A JOB 33.6 percent of all commutation (see Figure 2). The COMMUTED TO WORK. most important sources of interregional employment were Rockland and Westchester counties. Rockland accounted for 9.5 percent (8,284) of total commutation and 5.5 percent of all primary jobs held; Westchester County was responsible for 9.31 percent (8,260) of all commutation and 5.4 percent of all primary jobs held. Outside the region, New York City (NYC) continued to be the most significant source of commuter employment at 28.5 percent of commutation and 16.5 percent of all primary jobs held. As is typically the case, New York County (Manhattan) provided the most jobs in 2017 at 15,326, down from 15,424 in 2016. Commutation to the Long Island Region was a distant

8 second at 5.3 percent (5,255) of all commutation and 3.0 (4,726) percent of all primary jobs held (see Figure 3).

Figure 3: Primary Commutation By Area; 2015, 2016, 2017 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 Interregional 15,000 Interregional 10,000 5,000 0 Hudson Valley New York City Long Isand Connecticut New Jersey Albany County All Other 2015 29,267 23,756 4,387 691 9,686 2,018 9,675 2016 29,398 24,926 4,608 722 9,397 2,023 10,015 2017 29,759 25,260 4,726 671 9,294 1,939 10,306

The most important working-age demographic in Orange County is individuals aged 30 to 54. This demographic has the highest labor-force participation rate — 70.0 percent in 2017 — and accounted for 53.0 percent (81,280) of all primary jobs held, little changed on the year. The number of individuals aged 55 or older holding a primary job continues to advance, rising from

Figure 4: Labor Participation Rate by Age; 2015, 2016, 2017

2017 61.7% 50.6% 70.0% 58.9%

2016 61.7% 53.7% 69.0% 57.1%

2015 61.3% 50.5% 69.7% 57.4%

Workers All Ages Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 to 69

36,571 primary jobs held in 2016 to 37,683 in 2017. Labor market participation remains steady. The youngest demographic, those aged 29 or younger, accounted for 22.4 percent (34,384) of all

9 primary jobholders in 2017, down slightly on the year. Labor force participation among workers aged 29 or younger was 50.6 percent in 2017 compared to 53.7 percent in 2016 (see Figures 4 and 5).

FIGURE 5: PRIMARY JOBS HELD BY AGE OF WORKER; 2015, 2016, 2017

35,419 36,571 37,683

81,842 81,285 81,280

32,815 34,800 34,384

2015 2016 2017

Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 or older

The increase in the number of jobholders aged 55 and older can be explained in part by the aging of the baby-boomer generation. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, between the years 2015 and 2017 the number of persons living in Orange County aged of 55 to 69 increased 2,032 while the number of persons aged 30 to 54 declined 1,774. An important secondary issue is the continued impact of the Great Recession on retirement security. In 2017, the maximum number of Orange County residents who held more than one job was 14,062, down from 14,174 in 2016. The majority of multiple jobholders were aged 30 to 54 followed by workers aged 29 years or younger (see Figure 6).

FIGURE 6: MAXIMUM NUMBER OF PERSONS HOLDING A SECOND JOB BY AGE; 2015, 2016, 2017

3,172 3,014 2,717

7,087 7,485 7,610

3,292 3,517 3,438

2015 2016 2017

Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 or older Putnam County Commutation Flows

10 Consistent with the near-term trend, the number of Putnam County residents who held a job continues to outpace employment Chart 1: Putnam County: Labor Market Efficiency opportunities within the county. On the 2015 2016 2017 year, labor market efficiency rose from Net Outflow/Inflow -20,299 -20,771 -20,077 Employed in Putnam 23,234 23,491 23,856 -20,771 in 2016 to -20,077 in 2017 Living in Putnam 43,533 44,262 43,933 (see Chart 1).

Figure 1: Percent and Number of Figure 2: Percent and Number of Putnam County Workers Employed in Putnam County Workers Who Putnam County Commuted Interregionally

8,876 17,517 17,762 20.4% 8,764 40.2% 40.1% 8,695 19.9% 17,544 19.6% 39.9%

2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017

Year-over-year, the number of Putnam County residents who worked in the county increased slightly, rising from 8,695 in 2016 to 8,764 in 2017 (see Figure 1). Employment outside the county fell from 35,567 in 2016 to 35,169 in 2017. Interregional employment remains the norm at 46.0 percent of all commutation and 39.9 percent of all primary jobs held by Putnam County residents (see Figure 2). The most important source of commuter employment was Westchester County at more than 36.8 percent (15,151) of total commuter employment and 31.9 percent of all primary jobs held; Dutchess County was a distant second at 5.1 percent (1,918) of total commutation and 4.5 percent of all primary OF ALL THE PUTNAM COUNTY RESIDENTS WHO HELD A JOB, MORE THAN 80 jobs held. Outside the region, New York City PERCENT COMMUTED TO WORK. (NYC) remains the most important source of commuter employment at 24.9 percent (10,190) of all commutation and 21.6 (9,479) percent of all primary jobs held. New York County (Manhattan) alone provided the most jobs at 6,043, down 32 primary jobs on the year (see Figure 3).

11 Figure 3: Primary Commutation By Area; 2015, 2016, 2017 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 Interregional 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Hudson Valley New York City Long Isand Connecticut New Jersey Albany County All Other 2015 17,517 9,182 1,853 3,568 385 327 1,825 2016 17,762 9,703 2,050 3,452 368 350 1,882 2017 17,544 9,479 2,107 3,479 348 329 1,883

The most important working-age demographic in Putnam County is those individuals aged 30 to 54. This demographic has the highest labor force participation rate — 69.9 percent in 2017 — and accounts for more than 51.8 percent (22,745) of all primary jobs held, falling 668 jobs on the year. The number of individuals aged 55 or older holding a primary job Figure 4: Labor Participation Rate by Age; 2015, 2016, 2017

2017 65.6% 58.7% 69.9% 64.3%

2016 65.4% 57.6% 72.0% 61.0%

2015 64.6% 58.6% 69.5% 61.5%

Workers All Ages Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 to 69 continued to climb, rising from 12,295 primary-jobs held in 2016 to 12,573 in 2017. Consistent with the increase in the number of jobs held, labor market participation by individuals aged 55 or older increased on the year from 61.0 percent of all eligible workers in 2016 to 64.3 percent in 2017. The youngest demographic, those aged 29 or younger, represented 19.6 percent of all primary jobholders in 2017, down slightly on the year. Labor force participation among workers

12 aged 29 or younger was 58.7 percent in 2017 compared to 57.6 percent in 2016 (see Figures 4 and 5).

FIGURE 5: PRIMARY JOBS HELD BY AGE OF WORKER; 2015, 2016, 2017

11,804 12,295 12,573

23,450 23,413 22,745

8,279 8,554 8,615

2015 2016 2017

Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 or older

In 2017, the maximum number of Putnam residents who held more than one job was 3,901. The majority of multiple jobholders were aged 30 to 54 followed by workers aged 55 or older (see Figure 6).

FIGURE 6: MAXIMUM NUMBER OF PERSONS HOLDING A SECOND JOB BY AGE; 2015, 2016, 2017

1,051 875 997

1,847 1,963 1,955

822 851 895

2015 2016 2017

Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 or older

13 Rockland County Commutation Flows

Consistent with trend, the Chart 1: Rockland County: Labor Market Efficiency number of Rockland County residents 2015 2016 2017 Net Outflow/Inflow -24,364 -24,432 -23,090 who held a job continued to outpace Employed in Rockland 103,448 107,057 108,521 employment opportunities in the Living in Rockland 127,812 131,489 131,611 county; however, the gap is closing. As of 2017, the number of county residents who held a job exceeded employment opportunities in the county by 23,090, down from 24,432 jobs held in 2016 (see Chart 1).

The number of Rockland County residents who worked in the county decreased, from 55,056 in 2016 to 54,767 in 2017 (see Figure 1). Over the same period, the number of residents employed outside the county increased, rising from 76,433 jobs held in 2016 to 76,844 jobs held in 2017.

Figure 1: Percent and Number of Figure 2: Percent and Number of Rockland County Workers Employed in Rockland County Workers who Rockland County Commuted Interregionally

55,056 17,553 41.87% 13.3% 54,767 16,959 53,034 41.61% 13.3% 17,405 41.49% 13.2%

2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017

Interregional employment accounted for 20.8 percent (17,405) of all commutation and 13.2 percent of all primary jobs held (see Figure MORE THAN HALF OF ALL ROCKLAND 2). The most important source of commuter COUNTY RESIDENTS WHO HELD A JOB employment was Westchester County at 14.9 COMMUTED TO WORK. percent (13,599) of total commutation and 9.4 percent of all primary jobs held; Orange County was a distant second at 4.7 percent (4,221) of all commutation and 3.0 percent of total employment. Outside the region, New York City (NYC) remains the most important source of commuter employment at 35.6 percent (32,059) of all total

14 commutation. New York County (Manhattan) provided the most jobs at 17,510, down from 17,748 in 2016 (see Figure 3).

Figure 3: Primary Commutation By Area; 2015, 2016, 2017 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Interregional 0 Albany Hudson Valley New York City Long Isand Connecticut New Jersey All Other County 2015 16,959 28,585 4,524 1,062 18,165 716 4,767 2016 17,553 29,487 4,752 1,071 17,888 753 4,929 2017 17,405 29,695 4,728 929 18,245 773 5,069 The most important working-age demographic in Rockland County is individuals aged 30 to 54. This demographic has the highest labor-force participation rate — 73.9 percent in 2017 — and in 2017 accounted for more than 51.6 percent (67,958) of all primary jobs held. The number of individuals aged 55 or older holding a primary job continues to advance, rising from 34,609 in

Figure 4: Labor Participation Rate by Age; 2015, 2016, 2017

2017 65.6% 51.4% 73.9% 66.9%

2016 66.1% 54.8% 73.7% 65.0%

2015 65.2% 50.2% 74.7% 64.8%

Workers All Ages Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 to 69

2016 to 35,310 in 2017. Labor market participation by individuals aged 55 or older was little changed on the year. The youngest demographic, those aged 29 or younger, represented 20.6 percent of all primary jobholders in 2017, down slightly on the year. Labor force participation

15 among workers aged 29 or younger was down on the year, falling from 54.8 percent in 2016 to 51.4 percent in 2017 (see Figures 4 and 5).

FIGURE 5: PRIMARY JOBS HELD BY AGE OF WORKER; 2015, 2016, 2017

33,617 34,609 35,310

67,815 68,226 67,958

26,380 28,654 28,343

2015 2016 2017

Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 or older

The increase in the number of jobholders aged 55 and older can be explained in part by the aging of the baby-boomer generation. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, between the years 2015 and 2017 the number of persons living in Rockland County aged 55 to 69 increased 421 while the number of persons aged 30 to 54 declined 1,426. An important secondary issue is the continued impact of the Great Recession on retirement security. In 2017, the maximum number of Rockland County residents who held more than one job was 14,190, up slightly on the year. The majority of multiple jobholders were aged 30 to 54 followed by workers aged 55 years and older (see Figure 6).

FIGURE 6: MAXIMUM NUMBER OF PERSONS HOLDING A SECOND JOB BY AGE; 2015, 2016, 2017

3,675 3,302 3,408

6,818 7,203 7,462

2,783 2,996 3,053

2015 2016 2017

Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 or older

16 Sullivan County Commutation Flows

Labor-market efficiency in Chart 1: Sullivan County: Labor Market Efficiency Sullivan County improved on the year, 2015 2016 2017 Net Outflow/Inflow -4,913 -5,200 -4,788 rising from -5,200 in 2016 to -4,788 in Employed in Sullivan 22,021 22,736 23,061 2017 (see Chart 1). The number of Living in Sullivan 26,934 27,936 27,849 Sullivan County residents who worked in the county fell from 13,206 in 2016 to 12,817 in 2017 (see Figures 1 and 2). Over the same period, the total number of residents employed outside the county rose by 302, from 14,730 in 2016 to 15,032 in 2017.

Figure 1: Percent and Number of Sullivan Figure 2: Percent and Number of County Workers Employed in Sullivan Sullivan County Workers Who County Commuted Interregionally

13,206 7,589 12,549 47.3% 28.2% 46.6% 12,817 7,723 7,660 46.0% 27.7% 27.4%

2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017

Consistent with the long-term trend, employment within the Hudson Valley — excluding Sullivan County — remains the norm at 46.9 MORE THAN HALF OF ALL SULLIVAN percent of all primary jobs held. Within the COUNTY RESIDENTS WHO HELD A JOB region, the most important source of commuter COMMUTED TO WORK. employment was Orange County at 28.4 percent of total commutation; Ulster County was a distant second at 6.7 percent. Outside the region, New York City (NYC) remains the most important source of commuter employment at 14.7 percent of all commutation. Within the city, New York County provided the most jobs at 1,316 (see Figure 3).

17 Figure 3: Primary Commutation By Area; 2015, 2016, 2017 9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000 Interregional

3,000

2,000

1,000

0 Hudson Valley New York City Long Isand Connecticut New Jersey Albany County All Other 2015 7,589 2,387 634 0 221 523 3,031 2016 7,660 2,423 640 0 253 489 3,265 2017 7,723 2,414 694 0 284 543 3,374

The most important working-age demographic in Sullivan County is individuals aged 30 to 54. This demographic has the highest labor force participation rate — just above 69.4 percent in 2017 — and accounts for 52.7 percent of all primary jobs held. The number of individuals

Figure 4: Labor Participation Rate by Age; 2015, 2016, 2017

2017 60.1% 59.6% 69.4% 46.8%

2016 58.3% 58.8% 64.4% 48.8%

2015 57.0% 54.5% 65.9% 45.3%

Workers All Ages Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 to 69 aged 55 or older holding a primary job declined on the year, falling from 7,297 primary jobs held in 2016 to 7,153 in 2017. Labor market participation by individuals aged 55 or older also decreased, falling from 48.8 percent of all eligible workers in 2016 to 46.9 percent in 2017. The youngest demographic, those aged 29 or younger, represented 21.6 percent of all primary

18 jobholders in 2017, up slightly on the year. Labor force participation among workers aged 29 or younger was 59.6 percent in 2017 compared to 58.8 percent in 2016 (see Figures 4 and 5).

FIGURE 5: PRIMARY JOBS HELD BY AGE OF WORKER; 2015, 2016, 2017

6,922 7,297 7,153

14,268 14,460 14,684

5,744 6,179 6,012

2015 2016 2017

Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 or older

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, between the years 2010 and 2016 the number of persons living in Sullivan County aged 55 to 69 increased 183 while the number of persons aged 30 to 54 declined 540. An important secondary issue is the continued impact of the Great Recession on retirement security.

In 2017, the maximum number of Sullivan County residents who held more than one job was 2,527. The majority of multiple jobholders were aged 30 to 54 (see Figure 6).

FIGURE 6: MAXIMUM NUMBER OF PERSONS HOLDING A SECOND JOB BY AGE; 2015, 2016, 2017

597 618 537

1,253 1,335 1,312

512 569 597

2015 2016 2017

Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 or older

19 Ulster County Commutation Flows

Consistent with the near-term trend, the number of Ulster County residents who held a job continued to outpace employment Chart 1: Ulster County: Labor Market Efficiency opportunities within the county. As of 2015 2016 2017 Net Outflow/Inflow -16,864 -17,223 -17,389 2017, the number of county residents Employed in Ulster 52,443 54,262 53,247 who held a job exceeded employment Living in Ulster 69,307 71,485 70,636 opportunities within the county by -17,389, down slightly on the year (see Chart 1).

Figure 1: Percent and Number of Ulster Figure 2: Percent and Number of Ulster County Workers Employed in Ulster County Workers Who Commuted County Interregionally

31,965 21,288 30,743 44.7% 30.7% 44.4% 30,952 21,675 21,415 43.8% 30.3% 30.3%

2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017

On the year, the number of Ulster County residents that worked in the county fell from 31,965 in 2016 to 30,952 in 2017, while commuter employment increased on the year, rising from 39,520 in 2016 to 39,684 in 2017 (see Figure 1). Interregional employment remains the norm at 30.3 percent (21,415) of all primary jobs held and 49.4 percent of all commutation (see Figure MORE THAN HALF OF ALL ULSTER 2). The most important source of commuter COUNTY RESIDENTS WHO HELD A employment was Dutchess County at 13.9 percent JOB COMMUTED TO WORK. (9,833) of all primary jobs held and 22.7 percent of total commutation. Orange County came second at 10.4 (7,366) percent of all jobs and 17.0 percent of total commutation. Outside the region, New York City (NYC) continues to be the most important source of commuter employment at 16.8 percent (7,938) of total commutation, 10.3 percent of all primary jobs held. New York County (Manhattan) provided the most jobs at

20 4,089, up on the year from 4,029 in 2016 (see Figure 3).

Figure 3: Primary Commutation By Area; 2015, 2016, 2017 25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000 Interregional

5,000

0 Hudson Valley New York City Long Isand Connecticut New Jersey Albany County All Other 2015 21,288 6,871 2,250 0 308 1,407 6,440 2016 21,675 6,916 2,461 0 333 1,416 6,719 2017 21,415 7,284 2,400 0 317 1,439 6,829

The main working-age demographic in Ulster County are those individuals aged 30 to 54. This demographic has the highest labor-force participation rate — 67.7 percent in 2017 — and accounts for a little more than 51.3 percent of all primary jobs held. The number of individuals aged 55 or older holding a primary job continues to advance, rising from 19,366 primary jobs held in 2016 to 19,457 in 2017. The youngest demographic, those aged 29 or younger,

Figure 4: Labor Participation Rate by Age; 2015, 2016, 2017

2017 58.8% 51.9% 67.7% 51.6%

2016 59.7% 55.6% 67.5% 51.5%

2015 57.2% 50.4% 66.5% 49.0%

Workers All Ages Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 to 69

represented 21.1 percent of all primary jobholders in 2017, down on the year. Labor force participation among workers aged 29 or younger was 51.9 percent in 2017 compared to 55.6 percent in 2016 (see Figures 4 and 5).

21 FIGURE 5: PRIMARY JOBS HELD BY AGE OF WORKER; 2015, 2016, 2017

18,096 19,366 19,457

36,745 36,939 36,266

14,466 15,180 14,913

2015 2016 2017

Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 or older The increase in the number of jobholders aged 55 and older can be explained in part by the aging of the baby-boomer generation. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, between the years 2015 and 2017 the number of persons living in Ulster County aged 55 to 69 increased by 535 while the number of persons aged 30 to 54 declined by 1,661. An important secondary issue is the continued impact of the Great Recession on retirement security.

In 2017, the maximum number of Ulster County residents who held more than one job was 6,496 compared to 6,397 in 2016. The majority of multiple jobholders were aged 30 to 54 followed by workers aged 29 or younger (see Figure 6).

FIGURE 6: MAXIMUM NUMBER OF PERSONS HOLDING A SECOND JOB BY AGE; 2015, 2016, 2017

1,448 1,556 1,320

3,087 3,367 3,374

1,533 1,582 1,566

2015 2016 2017

Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 or older

22 Westchester County Commutation Flows

Labor market efficiency improved more than 25 percent on the year, rising from -12,694 in 2016 to -9,560 in 2017 (see Chart 1), while the number of residents who worked in the county fell from 173,866 in 2016 to 172,927 Westchester County: Labor Market Efficiency in 2017. During the same period, the 2015 2016 2017 Net Outflow/Inflow -7,419 -12,694 -9,560 number of residents employed outside Employed in Westchester 371,923 376,040 380,185 the county fell from 214,868 in 2016 Living in Westchester 379,342 388,734 389,745 to 216,818 in 2017 (see Figures 1 and 2).

Figure 1: Percent and Number of Figure 2: Percent and Number of Westchester County Workers Employed in Westchester County Workers Who Westchester County Commuted Interregionally

172,595 16,371 45.5% 4.2% 173,866 15,817 44.7% 172,927 15,303 44.4% 4.0% 4.1%

2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017

New York City (NYC) remains the most MORE THAN HALF OF ALL WESTCHESTER important source of commuter employment at COUNTY RESIDENTS WHO HELD A JOB 60.3 percent of all commutation, little changed on COMMUTED TO WORK. the year. Within the city, New York County provided the most jobs at 95,845, followed by Bronx County at 28,506. Employment in the Hudson Valley — excluding Westchester County — was of secondary importance at 7.0 percent of all commutation and 4.2 percent of all primary jobs held. Within the region, Rockland County accounted for 2.9 percent of all commutation (see Figure 3).

23 Figure 3: Primary Commutation By Area; 2015, 2016, 2017 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 Interregional 40,000 20,000 0 Albany Hudson Valley New York City Long Isand Connecticut New Jersey All Other County 2015 15,303 134,465 16,903 18,921 2,816 1,828 16,511 2016 15,817 139,225 18,701 18,999 2,904 1,888 17,334 2017 16,371 140,843 18,928 18,618 2,926 1,823 17,309

The most important working-age demographic in Westchester County is individuals aged 30 to 54. This demographic has the highest labor force participation rate — just about 68.7 percent in 2017 — and accounted for more than 54.7 percent of all primary jobs held. The number of individuals aged 55 or older who held a primary job continues to advance, rising from 102,093 primary jobs held in 2016 to 103,853 in 2017. Labor market participation by individuals

Figure 4: Labor Participation Rate by Age; 2015, 2016, 2017

2017 61.50% 49.48% 68.68% 59.87%

2016 61.90% 50.82% 68.79% 59.80%

2015 60.80% 48.17% 67.83% 59.76%

Workers All Ages Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 to 69 aged 55 or older increased from 59.8 percent of all eligible workers in 2016 to 59.9 percent in 2017. The youngest demographic, those aged 29 or younger, represented 18.7 percent of all primary jobholders in 2017, down slightly on the year. Labor force participation among workers

24 aged 29 or younger was 49.5 percent in 2017 compared to 50.8 percent in 2016 (see Figures 4 and 5).

FIGURE 5: PRIMARY JOBS HELD BY AGE OF WORKER; 2015, 2016, 2017

100,331 102,093 103,853

210,356 213,381 213,181

68,655 73,260 72,711

2015 2016 2017

Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 or older

The increase in the number of jobholders aged 55 and older can be explained in part by the aging of the baby-boomer generation. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, between the years 2015 and 2017 the number of persons living in Westchester County aged 55 to 69 increased 4,758 while the number of persons aged 30 to 54 declined 3,906. An important secondary issue is the continued impact of the Great Recession on retirement. Job losses, in concert with stagnant housing values and low interest rates, have seriously impacted retirement security. In 2017, the maximum number of Westchester County residents who held more than one job was 34,704. The majority of multiple jobholders were aged 30 to 54 followed by workers aged 55 years or older (see Figure 6).

FIGURE 6: MAXIMUM NUMBER OF PERSONS HOLDING A SECOND JOB BY AGE; 2015, 2016, 2017

8,873 9,188 8,237

17,109 18,354 18,248

6,234 7,072 7,268

2015 2016 2017

Workers Aged 29 or younger Workers Aged 30 to 54 Workers Aged 55 or older