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THE WHILLANS REPORT MARKET UPDATE 1ST QUARTER 2019

Changing market opens up new opportunities

Not a day goes by when I’m not asked, ‘What’s supported by syndicators and fund managers. The rise and rise of co-working space happening with the market?’ And that’s never The key for these buyers is securing the right In this edition of the Whillans Report, our an easy question to answer, with a market that stock. senior analyst Brendan Keenan looks at the has so many moving parts. But the market is We are continuing to receive good enquiry rise of the co-working industry. changing, and in some sectors quite rapidly. from offshore fund managers that have a We explore the potential impact this industry Land was the first sector to show changes, mandate to invest in property. could have on landlords and office markets, feeling the effects of rising construction costs, These groups have been struggling to find and question whether co-working is a game- Chinese Government capital controls, and suitable investment-grade properties overseas. changer or just a passing trend. amendments to the Overseas Investment Act. Following the lead of companies like Invesco, Land values have plateaued and sale volumes Blackstone and KKR, these groups are have dropped dramatically. We are now actively scoping our market for $80 million+ starting to see development land coming back investment-grade assets — a hard ask in New Bruce Whillans to the market, and in some cases priced at Zealand’s small, tightly held market. Managing Director more realistic levels. However, buyers with the Notable sales from a strong first quarter: T +64 (09) 304 1453 confidence and banking support are few and M +64 (21) 985 619 far between. Premier House, 182-184 Queen Street - bruce.whillans Investment property is a different story. Henry Thompson @whillans.co.nz Properties with robust income streams are A portfolio of Albert Street carparks – in high demand, with premium-grade assets Brice Clark continuing to achieve benchmark yields. Local high-net-worth privates dominate the A 6.87 ha block of residential land in under-$50 million market, with the top end – Brice Clark

City Centre Carparks, Auckland CBD 182-184 Queen Street, Auckland CBD Airfield Road, Takanini, Auckland

Market 2018 Fourth Quarter Update

Auckland CBD Office Market Summary* CBD Office — The CBD office market ended For the year ending December, effective prime PRIME SECONDARY PREV 6MTH TREND 2018 in a strong position. Tenant demand, rental rates decreased by 0.7% to $397/psm. Vacancy 4% 11.1% Decreasing falling vacancy rates and offshore investor Secondary effective rental rates increased by activity propelled office values to new highs. 1.1% to $241/psm. Effective Rent $397 $241 Flat Yield 5.77% 6.83% Firming For the year ending December, prime and The major research houses rental growth secondary office yields firmed by 31 and 32 projections for the year ahead remain mixed. Incentives* 9.6 mths 9.2 mths Increasing basis points respectively. However, there They range between 0% and 4% with new *Based on an indicative new 9 year prime was a clear deceleration in capital growth supply and tenant incentives clouding the and 6 year secondary lease in the second half of 2018. Some industry picture between each forecast. commentators believe the firming cycle will level out by the end of this year.

Whillans Realty Group Limited (REAA 2008) I Level 3, The Annex, 41 Shortland Street, Auckland, New Zealand I +64 09 304 1453 I www.whillans.co.nz 1 THE WHILLANS REPORT AUCKLAND MARKET UPDATE 1ST QUARTER 2019

Market 2018 Fourth Quarter Update

Auckland Industrial Market Summary Auckland Industrial —The industrial increased by 5% to $111.7/psm. Indicative PRIME SECONDARY PREV 6MTH TREND market was a standout performer in 2018. prime industrial yields moved 26 basis points Vacancy 1.1% 1.15% Increasing Yields continued to firm, supported by strong to 5.24%. Secondary industrial yields firmed rental growth, limited industrial supply and 24 basis points to 6.29%. Effective Rent $142.1 $111.7 Increasing structurally low vacancy rates. Yield 5.24% 6.29% Firming Vacancy levels for prime and secondary For the year ending December 2018, net industrial are exceptionally low at just 1.1% and Land Value $800 $300 Increasing effective prime industrial rents increased 1.15% respectively. by 5.5% to $142.1/psm. Secondary rents

Auckland CBD Retail Market Summary CBD Retail —Auckland CBD retail rents further up Queen Street recorded a 15.4% AVERAGE HIGH LOW PREV 6MTH TREND recorded a decrease of 1.9% in the 12 months to decrease over the same period. In the 12 Rent $3,883 $4,800 $2,200 Increasing December 2018. months to December 2018, CBD retail yields firmed 12 basis points to 4.83%. Yield 4.83% 4.75% 5.00% Flat Over the past year there was a clear divergence between the prime and secondary CBD retail Like the CBD office market, there was a markets. Prime Queen Street rentals, close deceleration in yield compression in the second Source: Statistical data in this market update has been summarised from CBRE research and is intended for to the waterfront, experienced a 6.7% annual half of 2018. CBD retail yields firmed 2 basis general guidance only. No responsibility is accepted increase in rental rates. Secondary rentals points in the six months to December 2018. by CBRE or Whillans Realty Group Limited for any omissions or errors contained within this report.

The rise of co-working — Brendan Keenan, Senior Analyst

If asked who the largest office tenant is in London or New York, you could be forgiven for thinking it would be a leading financial institution. Banks, insurance companies and legal firms have traditionally been the largest occupiers of office space in major cities worldwide.

Times are a changing Many co-working spaces also include add- However, times are changing. Financial ons such as unlimited coffee and café-style institutions are being overtaken by a new 21st- breakout areas. Some even curate events century player — WeWork. hosting guest speakers, and some offer in- WeWork was established in 2010 and has house yoga. Networking and socialising are grown from a small start-up to become the emphasised. Friday night drinks and beer on largest office tenant in New York, London and tap can all form part of the package. Washington DC. WeWork provides co-working Is the co-working business model really space in over 100 cities around the world. The all that new? company is backed by Softbank, a Japanese Some sceptics believe the industry is just a conglomerate, and has a market value sexier version of the serviced office model, estimated to be worth US$40 billion. targeting the 22 to 37-year-old ‘Millennial’ Co-working 101 generation with beanbags, espresso machines Co-working provides office space on a and meeting rooms filled with pop art. flexible basis. Occupiers do not commit to Serviced office providers are also beginning a conventional lease agreement: they pay a to fashion themselves into co-working spaces, membership fee for workspace depending on ditching marble and mahogany for Silicon how and when they use it. Individuals, start- Valley-styled fit-outs. ups and even large corporates share these At WeWork, the company’s executives facilities, co-mingling with one another. promote the brand not as an office provider, Unlike traditional lease arrangements, but as a community. However, beneath this membership is an all-inclusive package. It aspirational culture is a fundamental business bundles WiFi, IT support, stationery, printers truth: the company and others like it make and scanners, furniture, cleaning and utilities money primarily through rent arbitrage, into a daily, weekly or monthly rate. charging their members more than they pay their landlords.

Whillans Realty Group Limited (REAA 2008) I Level 3, The Annex, 41 Shortland Street, Auckland, New Zealand I +64 09 304 1453 I www.whillans.co.nz 2 THE WHILLANS REPORT AUCKLAND MARKET UPDATE 1ST QUARTER 2019

The rise of co-working

A cautionary tale The digital revolution of the last decade is also Changes to International Financial Reporting The co-working business model works supporting the rise of the co-working industry. Standards (IFRS) are also making co-working extremely well in a rising rental market. Cloud computing, smartphones, and faster, an attractive proposition for companies. cheaper, more reliable internet connections Businesses lock in long-term leases with From 01 January 2019, IFRS 16 will change make it possible to work anywhere at any time. landlords. They’re able to capitalise on rental reporting practices for occupiers of real estate. growth by charging their members market New accounting rules and cost-conscious This move will eliminate off-balance sheet rental rates. business owners favour co-working reporting and require businesses to recognise most leases as liabilities on their balance But what happens in a property downturn? Other more subtle changes have also tilted sheets. While the co-working industry is relatively the landscape in favour of the co-working new, the older and established serviced office model. In the wake of the financial crisis, For some firms, the IFRS changes will industry provides a cautionary tale. some businesses are moving away from affect banking covenants, credit ratings and expensive long-term office leases and towards potentially even borrowing costs. However, In the late 1990s, Regus, a global serviced office professionally managed co-working spaces. lease terms less than 12 months are exempt business, embarked on a massive expansion from these new rules. Many industry experts By offering a total package, co-working coinciding with the tech boom. However, the expect businesses to realign part of their providers are able to offer lower occupancy dotcom bubble burst in 2000. Regus no longer leasing strategy to accommodate a flexible costs per employee than a standard office lease. had enough clients to cover its outgoings and co-working model. Interestingly, in 2018, 15% In New York, WeWork promotes itself as being faced huge rental liabilities. It was forced to of all office leasing transactions in the Asia- able to provide space at around 25% less than declare bankruptcy for its American business Pacific region were for flexible work spaces. unit. traditional fixed-lease premises. Having risen from the ashes of the global financial crisis, could the co-working industry face a similar fate? Is today any different?

Despite parallels between the serviced office and co-working industries, demographic and technological forces at play suggest that this time could indeed be different. According to global consultancy PwC, by next year Millennials will account for half of the world’s workforce. This legion of workers will soon dominate most industries, and in the next 10 years will make up 75% of the workforce. ‘By next year Millennials will account for half of the world’s workforce.’

Unlike previous generations, research shows that Millennials are adopting work practices that align perfectly with the co-working model. They prioritise collaboration, flexible working hours, and less formal work attire and environments. Could the days of open-plan offices, fluorescent lighting and neatly arranged workstations be coming to an end?

Whillans Realty Group Limited (REAA 2008) I Level 3, The Annex, 41 Shortland Street, Auckland, New Zealand I +64 09 304 1453 I www.whillans.co.nz 3 THE WHILLANS REPORT AUCKLAND MARKET UPDATE 1ST QUARTER 2019

The rise of co-working

What could this mean for landlords? For example, under traditional fixed-term A balancing act leases most corporate tenants might lease Industry observers remain divided over the 2 2 Many landlords are meeting the challenge impact co-working will have on office markets between 12m and 17m of office space per of co-working head on. Some landlords are employee. Co-working spaces have manged to and existing landlords. 2 converting part of their portfolio into flexible get this figure down to as low at 7m per person. co-working spaces. They are cutting out the Proponents believe that the model brings middle-man and offering flexible office space non-traditional office users into the office While co-working spaces currently make up directly to their tenants. Others are leasing market boosting the overall demand for office just a small portion of the overall office market, their buildings to co-working providers, or space and thus lowering vacancy rates. Self- the fear is that as their share of the market even collaborating with co-working businesses employed contractors and freelancers working grows, total office demand will shrink. to deliver space. from a coffee shop are now filling the desks of co-working spaces. And consider Precinct, New Zealand’s largest office owner, who also owns Generator, one of But this trend is beginning to change. As ‘In 2018, 15% of New Zealand’s largest co-working businesses. the market matures, medium and large size corporates are also beginning to use co- all office leasing Will those who do nothing risk missing out on working spaces. According to WeWork, over this global trend? 30% of its members come from companies transactions in the Like most things in life, the way forward may with more than 1,000 employees. just be a balancing act between the old and the Some property experts fear that the rise of Asia-Pacific region new. co-working businesses could cannibalise office markets by reducing the aggregate demand for office space. involved flexible work In the quest to seek out a margin and provide spaces.’ Brendan Keenan end-users with attractive membership fees, Senior Analyst the co-working industry is literally making a In Auckland, shared office space is estimated T +64 (09) 304 1453 science out of the efficient use of office space. M +64 (21) 161 3882 to account for less than 2% of the total office brendan.keenan Savvy co-working businesses are using the market. But in some overseas markets, in @whillans.co.nz latest sociological and physiological research, particular China and India, this share is hidden sensors and data analytics to design approaching 20%. Will we see a similar level of super-efficient office environments. co-working space here in New Zealand?

Senior Broker Wanted

Whillans Realty Group is the driving force behind many of New Zealand’s largest commercial property transactions, with over $3 billion in sales. Over the past 12 months the Whillans team have completed 29 sales with an average value of $33.2 million. We specialise in high-end property deals with a reputation for larger land sales, investment and portfolio sales. There is now an opportunity for an experienced broker with a proven track record to join the team. Call me for a discussion in confidence.

Bruce Whillans Managing Director M +64 (21) 985 619 [email protected]

Whillans Realty Group Limited (REAA 2008) I Level 3, The Annex, 41 Shortland Street, Auckland, New Zealand I +64 09 304 1453 I www.whillans.co.nz 4 THE WHILLANS REPORT AUCKLAND MARKET UPDATE 1ST QUARTER 2019

Auckland Office and Retail Investment Sales

Office Investment Sales

Address Asset Type NLA Parking Occupancy WALT Sale Price Date Initial Yield 155 Fanshawe Street CBD A-Grade 15,354 80 NA NA $247,000,000 Jan-19 NA 182 Queen Street and 4 Durham Street CBD Character 1,619 0 100% 4 Confidential Dec-18 Confidential 5-7 Kingdon Street Newmarket B-Grade 4,710 62 NA 2.23 $19,750,000 Dec-18 7.49% C-Drive, 33 Corinthian Drive Albany A-Grade 10,248 334 100% 6.9 $50,500,000 Dec-18 5.88% 626 Great South Road Ellerslie B-Grade 2,647 90 100% 2.43 $11,600,000 Nov-18 6.85% 6 Fox Street Parnell Character 877 10 100% 2 $7,600,000 Nov-18 5.39% 135 - 151 Broadway Newmarket B-Grade 4,735 87 100% NA $27,900,000 Oct-18 6.45% 48 High Street CBD B-Grade 1,266 0 100% 2.3 $10,200,000 Sep-18 5.36% 34 Sale Street CBD A-Grade 6,317 95 100% 7.9 $63,000,000 Sep-18 c. 5% 626 Great South Road Penrose C-Grade 2,647 90 100% 2.7 $10,600,000 Sep-18 7.49%

125 Queen Street CBD A-Grade 21,307 74 NA NA $214,000,000 Aug-18 6.00% 109 Carlton Gore Road Newmarket B-Grade 4,550 159 100% 4.25 $28,000,000 Jul-18 6.85% 205 Great South Road Greenlane B-Grade 3,984 120 NA 2.18 $17,525,000 Jul-18 7.27% Spark Building D, 167 Victoria Street West CBD A-Grade 7,495 73 100% 5.9 $77,000,000 Jul-18 6.90%

Viaduct Leasehold Portfolio: 110 Customs Street CBD A-Grade 8,273 93 100% 3.2 $28,000,000 Jun-18 10.2% West, and 10 and 12 Avenue

180-182 Broadway Newmarket B-Grade/Retail 2,062 21 100% 4 $11,500,000 Jun-18 6.63% ANZ Centre, 23-29 Albert Street (50% Stake) CBD A-Grade 16,760 216 100% NA $181,000,000 Jun-18 NA 22 Fanshawe Street CBD A-Grade 7,000 66 NA NA $50,000,000 Jun-18 NA VXV Office Portfolio CBD A-Grade 88,222 NA 99% 10 $635,000,000 May-18 6.60% 75 CBD B-Grade 5,684 58 100% 5.4 $23,300,000 May-18 6.95% 4 Viaduct Harbour Avenue CBD A-Grade 7,340 68 Vacant Possession $22,000,00 Apr-18 NA 52 Swanson Street CBD B-Grade 6,000 50 NA NA $23,000,000 Apr-18 NA 96 St Georges Bay Road Parnell A-Grade 11,083 178 100% 10.89 $116,000,000 Apr-18 6.47% 15 Lambie Drive B-Grade 2,511 92 100% 6 $10,700,000 Apr-18 6.89% 57-59 Street A-Grade 3,753 127 100% 7 $25,960,000 Feb-18 5.97% 9-15 Wakefield Street CBD C-Grade 4,024 0 100% 5 $14,900,000 Feb-18 7.28% 7 City Road CBD B-Grade 6,662 134 100% NA $23,000,000 Feb-18 7.90% 62-64 Anzac Street Takapuna B-Grade 5,682 196 NA NA $43,000,000 Jan-18 6.39% 128 Broadway Newmarket B-Grade/Retail 1,436 30 100% NA $9,128,948 Jan-18 5.86% 22 Pollen Street Grey Lynn A-Grade 4,000 94 100% 6.5 $37,857,304 Dec-17 5.75% 98 and 100 CBD B-Grade 4,263 85 100% 9.26 $22,000,000 Dec-17 5.40% 29-33 Shortland Street CBD Character 5,486 0 100% 2.6 $39,900,000 Dec-17 5.46% 52 Symonds Street CBD B-Grade 3,826 70 85% NA $16,150,000 Dec-17 5.79%

Retail Investment Sales Address Suburb Asset Type NLA Parking Occupancy WALT Sale Price Date Initial Yield Royal Heights Shopping Centre Massey Supermarket 5,087 263 81% NA $16,830,000 Sep-18 4.67% The Warehouse, 11 Coliseum Drive Albany Bulk Retail 8,360 413 100% 6.5 $26,400,000 Aug-18 5.00% Countdown, 19-29 Donovan Street Blockhouse Bay Supermarket 2,238 145 100% 7.5 $9,300,000 Jun-18 5.17% Imperial Buildings, 40-48 Queen Street CBD Luxury Retail 6,191 0 NA NA $75,000,000 May-18 4.42% Mitre 10 MEGA Bulk Retail 8,939 250 NA NA $29,371,000 May-18 NA 20-30 Sel Peacock Drive Henderson Convenience/Bulk 9,700 139 96% 5.98 $21,000,000 May-18 5.95% 157-171 Parnell Road Parnell Strip Retail 1,117 16 95% NA $10,900,000 Apr-18 5.34% Appliance Shed and Warehouse Stationery Henderson Bulk Retail 2,427 59 100% NA $7,580,000 Apr-18 6.60% 1 Kawakawa Place Westgate Convenience 1,858 40 100% NA $9,375,0000 Mar-18 6.00% 7 and 7A Wagner Place St Lukes Bulk Retail 7,056 NA 100% NA $31,000,000 Mar-18 NA Highbury Shopping Centre Birkenhead Shopping Centre 13,941 682 NA NA $40,000,000 Dec-17 6.40% Placemakers, 24 Oteha Valley Road Albany Bulk Retail 3,329 NA 100% NA $14,000,000 Oct-17 5.50%

Whillans Realty Group Limited (REAA 2008) I Level 3, The Annex, 41 Shortland Street, Auckland, New Zealand I +64 09 304 1453 I www.whillans.co.nz 5 THE WHILLANS REPORT AUCKLAND MARKET UPDATE 1ST QUARTER 2019

Auckland CBD and City Fringe Land Sales

CBD Land Sales

Address Property Proposal/Development (m2) Sale Price $/psm Date

5-7 Galatos Street 2-level building Underdeveloped: 35 metre height limit 713 $4,350,000 $6,102 Oct-18

6-8 Upper Queen Street Vacant section Plans for a student accommodation development 1,176 $9,000,000 $7,653 Sep-18

6 Wolfe Street Vacant warehouse No known consents 285 $5,500,000 $19,298 Sep-18

29 Anzac Avenue Vacant building Consented for 15 level apartment tower. 754 $17,459,159 $23,155 Jun-18

7 Albert Street 4-level building Plans for a 50 level apartment / hotel tower 1,043 $27,000,000 $25,887 Jun-18

65-71 Federal Street Federal Street Carpark Plans for a 50 level apartment / hotel tower 1,641 $40,000,000 $24,375 May-18

74-80 Wellesley Street West 2-level office building 152 room Grand Chancellor Hotel 997 $10,000,000 $10,030 Apr-18

76 Anzac Avenue 3-level 1920’s building No known consents 356 $5,300,000 $14,887 Apr-18

204 Hobson Street Warehouse building No known consents 506 $3,500,000 $6,917 Nov-17

4 Hobson Street 5-level mixed use building No known consents 455 $5,200,000 $11,429 Nov-17

136-142 Fanshawe Street Warehouse building Purchased by Mansons TCLM. 5,210 $30,739,000 $5,900 Oct-17

9-11 Albert Street Food Alley Plans for a 50 level apartment / hotel tower 1,043 $19,200,000 $21,695 Aug-17

13-15 Albert Street and 9 Wolfe Street Link House Plans for a 50 level apartment / hotel tower 1,228 $26,500,000 $21,580 Aug-17

103 Wellesley Street Datacom House Plans a new 194 room Sudima Hotel 1,228 $12,250,000 $9,975 Jul-17

51 Albert Street Vacant Building 41 level Indigo Hotel and Apartment. 225 hotel suites, 24 apartments 645 $10,425,000 $16,162 Jun-17

46 Albert Street Part of old APN site 37 level, 490 room Holiday Inn Express and Even hotel 1,134 $31,000,000 $27,336 Jun-17

Non-CBD High Density Land Sales

Address Zone Proposal/Development (m2) Sale Price $/psm Date

19 and 21 Taharoto Road, Takapuna Mixed Use No known consents. 16 metre height limit 1,126 $3,950,000 $3,508 Dec-18

4 Appian Way, Albany Metropolitan Centre Consented for multiple schemes 3,406 $5,380,000 $1,580 Dec-18

4-6 Kingsland Terrace, Kingsland Mixed Use Short term leases. 13 metre height limit 1,953 $5,920,000 $3,031 Nov-18

14-16 Nugent Street, Grafton Mixed Use No known consents. 16 metre height limit 796 $2,400,000 $3,015 Oct-18

377 New North Road, Kingsland Mixed Use Currently a Jeans Outlet . No known consents. 16 metre height limit 1,222 $4,125,000 $3,375 Oct-18

614 - 616 Great South Road, Greenlane Mixed Use Underdeveloped 1970’s office 3,867 $11,600,000 $3,000 Sep-18

32 Shelly Beach Road THAB Sold with concept plan for nine apartments 746 $2,780,000 $3,726 Jul-18

454 Great North Road, Grey Lynn THAB Ex Convent. Bulk and location for 54 units 1,626 $4,100,000 $2,521 May-18

80 Don McKinnon Drive, Albany Metropolitan Centre Consented for 98 terraced houses. 72.5 metre height limit 15,969 $19,255,000 $1,205 May-18

16 Williamson Avenue, Grey Lynn Mixed Use Future development pipeline 556 $5,100,000 $9,173 Apr-18

8 Roxburgh Street, Newmarket Metropolitan Centre No known consents 842 $7,400,000 $8,788 Apr-18

223 Ponsonby Road, Ponsonby Town Centre Three level mixed use building: 131m2 retail, 314m2 office. 3 apartments 569 $4,100,000 $7,205 Apr-18

9 Park Road, Grafton Local Centre No known consents 1,068 $6,000,000 $5,617 Mar-18

532-536 Parnell Road, Parnell Mixed Use Purchased by a developer 1,932 $13,600,000 $7,039 Feb-18 404-444 Great South Road, Greenlane Mixed Use/THAB No known consents 8,896 $25,500,000 $2,866 Jan-18

70 Upper Queen St, Mixed Use Purchased by HNZC. Consented for 27 apartments 275 $2,600,000 $9,454 Oct-17

340-344 Mall, Onehunga THAB 42 unit apartment building. Part of Kiwibuild 3,132 $5,900,000 $1,883 Dec-17

34 Edwin Street, Mt Eden Mixed Use Currently used as an on-grade carpark for the Eden Business Park 2,970 $5,000,000 $1,638 Nov-17

1949 Great North Road, Avondale Town Centre 32.5 metre height limit. Bare site purchased by Panuku 7,447 $9,750,000 $1,309 Nov-17

18 Westmoreland Street, Grey Lynn Mixed Use Warehouse conversion to mixed use offering. Ozone Coffee 2,782 $8,500,000 $3,055 Sep-17

33 Scanlan Street, Grey Lynn Mixed Use Consented for 50 apartments 962 $4,800,000 $4,990 Sep-17

37 Virginia Ave East, Eden Terrace Mixed Use No known consents 625 $2,050,000 $3,280 Aug-17

1843 Great North Road, Avondale Town Centre Ted Manson Foundation. Planned for 140 apartments 2,309 $5,775,000 $2,501 Aug-17

1 Minnie Street, Eden Terrace Mixed Use No known consents 1,115 $3,888,000 $3,486 Aug-17

376 Great North Road, Grey Lynn THAB 1970’s Warehouse / Office 570 $4,000,000 $7,018 Jul-17

9 Madeira Lane, Grafton Mixed Use Six level apartment building: 99 units, 59 car parks, 104 bike parks 1,040 $4,600,000 $4,423 Jul-17 290 Parnell Road, Parnell Town Centre Leased to Wilson Carparking returning $146,209+GST p.a. 747 $7,088,000 $9,489 May-17

Whillans Realty Group Limited (REAA 2008) I Level 3, The Annex, 41 Shortland Street, Auckland, New Zealand I +64 09 304 1453 I www.whillans.co.nz 6