Foresighting the Liverpool city-region to 2065
RSA winter conference 27th November 2014
1. Intro & Project Partners
2. Fore-sighting processes
3. Approach: analysis –futures-participation Data Deep Dive “Past of the Future” policy review Digital Delphi – Ideas Bank
4. Reflections on project so far
.
Nicola M Headlam, of Alan Prof Richard Meeghan, EIUA, LJMU Brendan Nevin
Red Ninja Studios
1965 2065 2015
Near future Mid future ‘Far shores’
2015 2019/20 2040 2065
25 yrs
50 yrs
1. Intro & Project Partners
2. Fore-sighting processes
3. Approach: analysis –futures-participation Data Deep Dive “Past of the Future” policy review Digital Delphi – Ideas Bank
4. Reflections on project so far
.
“Foresighting” refers to a set of activities concerning the ways in which what is known can be operationalised for strategic decision-making.”
“Foresight brings together key agents of change and various sources of knowledge in order to develop strategic visions and anticipatory intelligence. It examines long-term futures with more of a holistic analysis than is typical in conventional forecasting activities, and with greater links to action and wider participation... (Nugroho & Saritas et al. 2009). Analysis : reviewing a broad range of economic, social, cultural and technological trends that have shaped the recent past, the present and are likely to shape the future
Futures: combining quantitative methods of forecasting and modelling with qualitative methods of forward thinking, horizon scanning and scenario development
Participation: encouraging dialogue on the future through structured workshops and focusing ideas by using scenarios and visualisations. Fore-sighting processes – the Foresight Prospectus
Thinking together : seeing like a network The possibilities for Cognitive Surplus and Collective leadership in Place-based networks not only “total place” but synoptic place-based foresighting
VUCA serves to enhance the strategic significance of VUCA foresight and insight as well as the behaviour of groups and individuals in organizations.
V = Volatility. The nature and dynamics of change, and the nature and speed of change forces and change catalysts. U = Uncertainty. The lack of predictability, the prospects for surprise, and the sense of awareness and understanding of issues and events. C = Complexity. The multiplex of forces, the confounding of issues and the chaos and confusion that surround an organization. A = Ambiguity. The haziness of reality, the potential for misreads, and the mixed meanings of conditions; cause-and-effect confusion. Future scenarios
1. Intro & Project Partners
2. Fore-sighting processes
3. Approach: analysis –futures-participation Data Deep Dive “Past of the Future” policy review Digital Delphi – Ideas Bank
4. Reflections on project so far
.
Structure
• Recent performance in population, output (GVA) and employment: pre and post-recession – comparisons nationally and with Greater Manchester, Birmingham and Leeds • Oxford Economics 10-year city-region forecasts for population, GVA and employment • Current situation in terms of local government expenditure cuts, employment, unemployment, benefits, housing stock, exporting, FDI, skills, property, enterprise, workforce projections - comparisons nationally and with Greater Manchester POPULATION
• LCR population decline 1981-2013 and, notably, 1981-2008
• Manchester South also had population decline 1981-2008 - but only at one seventh LCR rate
• population recovery 2001-13 in all – but more so in Manchester, Manchester South, Birmingham & Leeds
Mid-Year Population Estimates, 1981- 2013
20.0 % change 1981-2008 % change 2008-10 % change 2010-2013 % change 2008-2013 % change 2001-13 % change 1981-2013 % change 15.0 15.0
10.5 10.5 10.7 10.0 9.3 8.9 7.9 7.9 8.8 8.1 7.4 7.1 6.2 5.4 4.9 5.3 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.2 3.2 3.7 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.6 0.1 0.3 0.0
-1.4
-5.0
-8.1 -10.0 -9.4
-15.0 Manchester Manchester Manchester Liverpool Birmingham Birmingham Leeds city- Leeds LEP North West England - North - South city-region city-region city-region LEP region POPULATION: LIVERPOOL CITY REGION
• Knowsley – product of post-war population dispersal (the ‘outer estates’) most severely affected by population decline
• Liverpool and Halton strongest performances 2001-2013 Mid-Year Population Estimates, Liverpool City-region LAs, 1981-2013
% change 1981-2008 % change 2008-10 % change 2010-2013 % change 2008-2013 % change 2001-13 % change 1981-2013 % change 10.0
6.2 6.5
5.0
1.9 1.7
0.0 -0.6 -0.3
-3.4 -3.4 -5.0
-5.9 -7.0 -7.7 -8.5 -8.2 -10.0 -8.9 -9.0
-12.1 -15.0 -14.9 -15.8
-20.0 Halton Knowsley Liverpool Sefton St. Helens Wirral 90 84.2 83.1 Total GVA, % change, 81.7 1997-2008 - growth years 80 77.0 74.0 72.7 73.7 70.5 71.3 70 68.2 • strong growth – above
national – in East Merseyside 60 58.5 58.5 (Halton, Knowsley & Wirral) 50.2 and Liverpool 50 48.2 48.0
• above national growth in 40 Greater Manchester South & Leeds City-region 30
• below national growth in 20 Sefton and Wirral in Liverpool city-region and Greater 10 Manchester North 0 • below national growth in both Birmingham city-region & Birmingham LEP 12 11.3 Total GVA, % change, 11.1 2008-2012 – recession & austerity 10 8.3 8.3 • GVA in all but Sefton grew 8
through recession 6.5 6.4 6 5.2 5.4 4.7 4.8 • Liverpool city-region as a 4.2 whole, East Merseyside & 4 Liverpool grew above 2.7 2.6 national 2 0.7
0 • Greater Manchester and
Greater Manchester South -2 -1.4 also above national -4 • But both Birmingham & Leeds below national Index of Real Total GVA for 150.0 All Industries, 1998-2011, where 1998=100 140.0 Liverpool city- • relatively strong region/LEP
performance of Liverpool 130.0 city-region stands out – West especially early 2000’s Yorkshire 120.0 • all affected by recession Mancheste but Liverpool relatively less 110.0 r city- region/LEP
• West Midlands particularly 100.0 West badly affected by Midlands recession, with total GVA in both 2009 and 2011 90.0 actually below 1998 level – a ‘double dip’ 80.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Real Total GVA in recession & austerity – by industry • decline across agriculture, production and manufacturing • exceptions: – Liverpool city-region on mining & quarrying – Liverpool city-region, West Midlands and West Yorkshire on pharmaceuticals – Liverpool city-region on construction – Manchester city-region on computers, electronics & optical Real Total GVA in recession & austerity – by industry • service sector growth –notably Liverpool city- region in: – Information & communication (call centres?), admin & support services, other services, wholesale & retail, real estate
60,000
Total GVA, £millions, 2012 50,991 50,000 47,212 • Liverpool city-region’s 43,314 total GVA in 2012 only 40,000 half that of Greater 34,755 Manchester’s 30,000 26,072 25,319 24,764 • …and below 20,000 Birmingham’s 16,235
9,991 • …but on par with Leeds 10,000 8,230
city-region’s 3,384 3,714
0 • …albeit well below Leeds LEP area area 25,000 Leeds city- GVA per capita, £s, 1997- region 2012 23,000 UK 21,000 • although GVA per capita
growing strongly in 19,000 Birmingha Liverpool city-region over m LEP
growth and recession 17,000 Leeds LEP • …levels still below all 15,000 comparators Mancheste 13,000 r city- region/LEP
• …but closing gap 11,000 Birmingha m city- noticeably with region Birmingham city-region 9,000 Liverpool city- 7,000 region/LEP
5,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Employment 1971-2011
Employment past 4 decades: (UK 1971=100)
Liverpool city-region • decline sharply accelerating through mid-1970s and early 1980s recessions
• late-1990s upturn halted by latest recession
• a very long way to go to recover early 1970s level
Change in FTE employees, 1998-2013
Growth years 1998-2008 • growth in employees below national in Liverpool city-region – and notably Birmingham city-region (and LEP area) • Strong growth in Leeds city-region and just above national in Greater Manchester Change in FTE employees, 1998-2013
Recession and austerity: 2008-2013 • decline in employees above national in all city- regions except Manchester and notably Birmingham city-region • Liverpool decline on a par with Leeds city- region’s and less than Birmingham’s FTE Employees % changes: 1998-2008, 2008-13, 1998-2013
1998-2008 % change 2008-2013 % change 1998-2013 % change
20.0
15.9 15.0 12.4
10.0 8.2 8.4 8.7 7.7 7.4 6.7 7.2 7.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.0 2.7 2.0 1.4
0.0 -0.9 -0.9 -1.5 -1.4 -2.1 -3.1 -2.5 -3.0 -5.0 -4.2 -4.7 -5.5
-10.0 Liverpool city- Manchester Greater Birmingham Leeds LEP Leeds city- North West England Great Britain region city-region/LEP Birmingham city-region region and Solihull LEP Change in FTE employees, 1998-2013
• all impacted by recession • all, except Liverpool city-region, seeing 2012- 13 upturn - Liverpool city-region stable 2012- 13 • all, except Birmingham, with levels in 2013 above 1998 level • Birmingham's level in 2013 significantly bleow 1998 level FTE Employees Indexed, 1998-2013, 1998=100
120
115
Leeds city-region 110 England Great Britain Manchester city-region/LEP 105 North West Leeds LEP Liverpool city-region 100 Greater Birmingham and Solihull LEP Birmingham city-region
95
90 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Oxford Economics 10-year Forecasts
Oxford Economics reckon that 2013-2023 population: • in Liverpool city-region will grow slowly but at a third of the regional rate • growth in Halton will be fastest in city-region, followed by St Helens • in Wirral will decline
Oxford Economics 10-year Forecasts
Population Change (% per annum) 2013-2023 0.6
0.5 0.5
0.4
0.3 0.3 0.3
0.2
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
0.0 0
-0.1 -0.1
-0.2 Halton Knowsley Liverpool Sefton St Helens Wirral Liverpool City North West Region Oxford Economics 10-year Forecasts
Oxford Economics reckon that 2013-2023 GVA: • in Liverpool city-region will grow slightly below the regional rate • …but above it in Halton and (just) St Helens • … and will grow slowest in Sefton and Wirral
Oxford Economics 10-year Forecasts
GVA change (% per annum) 2013-2023 4.0
3.5 3.4
2.9 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 Halton Knowsley Liverpool Sefton St Helens Wirral Liverpool City North West Region Oxford Economics 10-year Forecasts
Oxford Economics reckon that 2013-2023 employment: • in Liverpool city-region will grow at half the regional rate • growth in Halton will be fastest in city-region, followed by Knowsley & St Helens • in both Sefton and Wirral will decline at the same rate
Oxford Economics 10-year Forecasts
Employment change (% per annum) 2013-2023 1.2
1.0 1.0
0.8
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4 0.3
0.2
0.0
-0.2 -0.2 -0.2
-0.4 Halton Knowsley Liverpool Sefton St Helens Wirral Liverpool City North West Region Oxford Economics 10-year Forecasts
Oxford Economics reckon that 2013-2023 employment numbers: • in Liverpool city-region will increase by nearly 20,000 • biggest growth in administrative & support services (+10,400), professional, scientific & technical services (+7,800) and construction (+5,000) • decline in Liverpool city-region in public administration (-7,900), manufacturing (-5,300), education (4,200) and health (-3,400)
Past of the Future…
Key Liverpool city-region ‘plans’
‘Merseyside’ • ‘The Future of Merseyside’ (the Holford Eden Report), 1937 • The ‘Merseyside Plan, 1944’ • Merseyside County Council’s Structure Plan (1980) & ‘Agenda for Merseyside’ (1985) • EU ‘Merseyside Integrated Development Operation’ (1989-93) & ‘Objective One Programmes’ for Merseyside (1994-99 & 2000-2008) – followed by ‘Phasing In’ (2007- 13) & ‘Transition Area’ (2014-20) funding
Some key Liverpool city-region ‘plans’/2 ‘Liverpool City Region’ • ‘Strategic Proposals’ (2005) & ‘Prospectus’ (2008) • Multi Area Agreement (2009-10) • “Rebalancing Britain: Policy or Slogan? Liverpool City Region - Building on its Strengths”, Heseltine and Leahy independent report, 2011 • Local Enterprise Partnership Growth Plan (2014) and ‘City Deal’ (2013) • Combined Authority (2014 - ?) • Private sector: Peel Ocean Gateway (2008 - )
‘The Future of Merseyside: Town and Country Planning Schemes’ (Eden Holford Report, 1937) Context:
• Post-1930’s recession
• Population still growing – albeit slower and pressures on conurbation core
Aspirations – ‘city-regional’ spatial planning
• Concerned particularly with dangers of separation between places of work and residence, difficulty of access to open spaces and playing fields and traffic congestion in centre
• Argued for creation of Regional Authority for Merseyside area depicted on map - covering 4 county boroughs, 2 municipal boroughs, 4 urban districts, and 3 rural districts.
‘Merseyside Plan, 1944’ (Longstreth Thompson, 1945) Context:
Post-war reconstruction
Main concern reducing level of congestion in conurbation core by decentralisation of population and employment - reinforced by post-war ‘location of industry’ policy’
A larger definition of Merseyside than Eden Holford – closer to current Liverpool city-region boundaries
Merseyside County Council – what might have been (Royal Commission on Local Government: Redcliffe Maud Report, 1969 Context:
Local government reorganisation in context of growth
• proposed creation of 58 new unitary authorities and…
• along with Greater London, three metropolitan areas inc. Merseyside
• (other two: South East Lancashire/North East Cheshire ('Selnec' – effectively Greater Manchester - & West Midlands
• 3 metropolitan areas each to be sub-divided into lower tier metropolitan districts.
It was not to be…. Merseyside County Council - what transpired (1974-1986) Context:
• local government reorganisation in context of growth
• (Conservative) Government dropped Redcliffe Maud proposals
• went instead for 1974 Local Government Reorganisation that saw creation of 6 Metropolitan County Councils, inc. Merseyside
• 2-tier structure with metropolitan tier alongside five constituent district councils: Knowsley, Liverpool, Sefton, St Helens and Wirral (Map) “Delphi may be characterised as a method for structuring a group communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem.”
(Linestone, Harold A 1991) Linestone, H (1991) cited in Linstone, H.A and Turnoff, M (1975) and (2002) (P3)
1. Intro & Project Partners
2. Fore-sighting processes
3. Approach: analysis –futures-participation Data Deep Dive “Past of the Future” policy review Digital Delphi – Ideas Bank
4. Reflections on project so far
.
+44 (0)151 795 2485 [email protected] Twitter: @livuniheseltine www.liv.ac.uk/heseltine-institute