Liverpool City Region Local Industrial Strategy: Summary of Evidence Liverpool City Region is a growing economy . GVA Growth 2007-2017 Liverpool City Region is a £32bn economy - measured £35,000 130 by Gross Value Added (GVA). In the last decade, we have added over £6bn to our economy, against the £30,000 125 backdrop of the deepest recession the UK has experienced since the Second World War. 120 £25,000 115 Our economy stagnated during the recession, while £20,000 others were shrinking, and it took longer for the full 110 impact to be felt in LCR. This means it has taken us £15,000 105 longer to recover, while other economies started to rebound as early as 2009, our recovery did not start £10,000 100 until 2013. £5,000 95 We are now experiencing strong levels of growth, for £0 90 three of the last four years we have grown faster than the 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 national average, and between 2016 and 2017, our GVA £ millions Indexed growth (Right Hand Side) economy grew by more than 5%. Source: ONS 1 . but we have performance gaps to close GVA per head (2010-2017) A delayed recovery has widened the gap between 28,000 LCR and the UK in terms of relative output, and UK 26,000 productivity. 24,000 North West 22,000 Our economy generates £20.4k of GVA for every LCR resident, 77% of the UK level. Since 2010, the gap has 20,000 Liverpool City Region increased from £4.5k to £6.7k per person. 18,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Our productivity (GVA per filled job) tracks much closer GVA per filled job (2010-2017) to national levels, and is 89% of the UK level. Despite 54,000 this, every filled job in the LCR produces £6k less 52,000 UK output than the UK. 50,000 48,000 North West 46,000 44,000 Liverpool City 42,000 Region 40,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: ONS 2 . .and so, to close these gaps, we need to improve our performance against the five foundations In October 2018, HM Government published a Policy Prospectus for Local Industrial Strategies to “build on unique local strengths to ensure every community, and the country, reaches their economic potential and creates high quality good jobs.” Local Industrial Strategies should boost productivity and earning potential across local areas by focusing on the five foundations of productivity. 3 1 – People 1.5 million peopleOur live population in the City Region, andis ourgrowing population has grown year we have experienced a slow rate of population growth, growing slower than any other LEP. % Change in population by LEP (1997 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -2017) London South East Midlands Source: Mid Year SwindonPopulation Estimates and Wiltshire – Greater Cambridge and Greater… but at a relatively slow rate . Leicester and Leicestershire West of England Hertfordshire South East Cornwall and Isles of Scilly Coast to Capital Greater Lincolnshire - The Marches on New Anglia -year since 2003. However, comparatively, Coventry and Warwickshire Oxfordshire Thames Valley Berkshire Buckinghamshire Thames Valley Heart of the South West Solent Dorset Enterprise M3 Gloucestershire Greater Birmingham and Solihull Leeds City Region York, North Yorkshire and East… Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham… Greater Manchester Worcestershire Sheffield City Region Black Country Cheshire and Warrington Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire Humber Lancashire Tees Valley North East 5 Cumbria Liverpool City Region … and we have a number of ageing communities Dependency Ratio (2017) At the City Region level, the ageing population is less prominent than for other areas of the UK. However, 0.70 0.68 this masks the prevalence of the ageing society in 0.66 other areas of the City Region, particularly Sefton and 0.64 Wirral. 0.62 0.60 In both of these areas, the dependency ratio is also 0.58 considerably higher than the UK level, reflective of the 0.56 high proportion of residents age 65+ and smaller 0.54 Working Age Populations. In these areas, the Working 0.52 Age Population face a greater burden in supporting 0.50 the ageing and youth population. 0.48 0.46 0.44 Halton Knowsley Liverpool Sefton St. Helens Wirral Dependency Ratio UK Level Source: Mid Year Population Estimates 6 Overall, our Working Age Population is growing. We have a Working Age Population of 977k which has grown (with fluctuations) over the last 30 years. Liverpool City Region Working Age Population (1997-2017) 990 980 Thousands 970 960 950 940 930 920 910 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Mid Year Population Estimates 7 . And the WAP is becoming more skilled. Our skills profile is improving. Since 2004, the proportion of highly skilled residents has increased, at the same time, the proportion of residents with no qualifications has fallen. Change in qualification levels (2004-2018) 35% 33% 30% 25% 24% 19% 19% 20% 18% 16% 15% 15% 15% 10% 11% 10% 5% 0% % with NVQ4+ - aged 16-64 % with NVQ3 only - aged 16-64 % with NVQ2 only - aged 16-64 % with NVQ1 only - aged 16-64 % with no qualifications (NVQ) - aged 16-64 Jan 2004-Dec 2004 Jan 2018-Dec 2018 Source: Annual Population Survey 8 . But we need more highly skilled workers While our skills profile is improving, comparatively, we have a low proportion of highly skilled workers (NVQ4+), and a high proportion of residents with no qualifications. A highly skilled population is a key component of a competitive, productive economy. Qualification levels of the Working Age Population (2018) 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% % with NVQ4+ - aged 16-64 % with NVQ3 only - aged 16-64 % with NVQ2 only - aged 16-64 % with NVQ1 only - aged 16-64 % with no qualifications (NVQ) - aged 16-64 Source: Annual Population Survey LCR North West UK 9 Our employment rate is growing. Employment Rate (2004 -2018) Each year a growing number of our residents are 76% employed, with significant growth in our employment 74% 72% rate from 2014 onwards. This fast rate of growth has 70% closed the gap considerably between the LCR 68% employment rate and that of the UK. 66% 64% 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 As of 2018 72% of our Working Age Population were LCR North West UK in employment, compared to 74% in the North West and the UK rate of 75%. Unemployment Rate (2004 -2018) 12% At the same time, our unemployment rate has fallen 10% significantly from 6.2% in 2004, to 4.1% in 2018. As of 8% 2018, the unemployment rate was lower than that of 6% both the North West and the UK. 4% 2% 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Liverpool City Region North West UK Source: Annual Population Survey 10 With 26% of our Working Age Population currently inactive, LEPs in the UK, this is Economic Inactivity Rate (2018) . but a high proportion of our WAP is inactive. 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% a key driver of our output gap with the UK 5% 0% Black Country Tees Valley Liverpool City Region Greater Birmingham and Solihull Source: Annual Population Survey North East Greater Manchester Leeds City Region we have the third highest rate of economic inactivity Cornwall and Isles of Scilly Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham… Leicester and Leicestershire . Sheffield City Region Lancashire Humber London Greater Lincolnshire Cheshire and Warrington Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire Coventry and Warwickshire Solent South East Dorset New Anglia Coast to Capital York, North Yorkshire and East… Cumbria o Greater Cambridge and Greater… f all Hertfordshire South East Midlands Heart of the South West The Marches West of England Worcestershire Buckinghamshire Thames Valley Swindon and Wiltshire Thames Valley Berkshire 11 Oxfordshire Enterprise M3 Gloucestershire . and disconnected from the world of work Liverpool City Region Labour Supply (2018) We have 274k residents that are economically inactive, a high proportion of these (30%) do not participate in the labour force due to long term sickness. Long term sickness is highest in St Helens Working Age Population WAP 968k 100% (37.4%) and lowest in Liverpool (26.9%). Of our working age population, we have a proportionately Unemployed 25k higher number of residents that do not want a job when Self compared with the UK. In addition to sickness there are a Economically Active Employees 620k employed 74% number of reasons for this, such as stay at home parents 73k and people who have retired early – essentially lifestyle Wants choices. a job 47k Economic Inactivity by reason Does not Economically Inactive Long-term sick (30%), Student (23%), want 26% Looking after family/home(23%), Retired (12%), Temporary sick (2%), a job Other (10%) 201 k Source: Annual Population Survey 12 Inactivity is underpinned by complex health-related challenges Male Life EXpectancy at Birth (2018) 80 Our economic inactivity rate reflects the range of complex health and wellbeing challenges residents in 78 the City Region face: 76 • One in four people of working age in the LCR have 74 limiting health conditions; Halton Knowsley Liverpool Sefton St. Helens Wirral • Life expectancy is two and a half years lower than England Average for England; Source: Public Health England Prevalence of Common Mental Health Disorders (2018) • The prevalence of ill health is increasing; and 30 • There is a high prevalence of mental health 25 disorders1. 20 15 10 Unfavourable health conditions in the LCR contributes to 5 both the employment and productivity gap. 0 Halton Knowsley Liverpool Sefton St.