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Home , Liverpool City Region, Northern Powerhouse, Transport for the North

CITY REGION

To: The Metro Mayor and Members of the Combined Authority

Meeting: 16 November 2018

Authority/Authorities Affected: All

EXEMPT/CONFIDENTIAL ITEM: No

REPORT OF THE DIRECTOR OF INTEGRATED TRANSPORT AND THE PORTFOLIO HOLDER: TRANSPORT AND AIR QUALITY

HIGH SPEED 2 AND RAIL UPDATE

1. PURPOSE OF REPORT

1.1 To update the Combined Authority on the work being conducted by , including;

1.2 An update on the work being done by both the Liverpool City Region and Transport for the North to make the case for and an enhanced link to Liverpool.

2. RECOMMENDATIONS

2.1 It is recommended that the Liverpool City Region Combined Authority note the report.

3. BACKGROUND

3.1 Transport for the North and Northern Powerhouse Rail

3.1.1 Transport for the North (TfN) is the first statutory sub-national transport body in the , officially receiving its statutory powers on 1stApril 2018. TfN brings together 19 local transport authorities (including four Mayoral Combined Authorities and two Combined Authorities), enabling the North to speak with one voice on the transport infrastructure investment needed to deliver transformational growth and rebalance the UK economy.

3.1.2 The 2016 Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review (NPIER - https://www.transportforthenorth.com/wp-content/uploads/Northern- Powerhouse-Independent-Economic-Review-Executive-Summary.pdf) identified that transformed transport connectivity – both between the North‟s core cities and elsewhere across the North – would be a key enabler for transformed economic growth.

3.1.3 Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) has been identified as a key way of achieving the transformed passenger connectivity between cities, with the NPR conditional outputs emulating the levels of frequency and journey time achieved in economically successful areas elsewhere in the world. These “conditional outputs”, the proposed outcomes for the scheme, established under the “One North” proposition (https://www.manchester.gov.uk/downloads/download/5969/one_north), referenced in NPIER, and agreed by the TfN Board are shown below.

3.1.4 NPR is also seen as completing and complementing High Speed 2 (HS2). There are a number of synergies between both schemes, not least that some of the emerging options for NPR entail shared use of HS2 infrastructure. For example, between Piccadilly and , much of the same infrastructure would be shared by HS2 trains and NPR trains. Thus, a direct new line between HS2 and Liverpool city centre, which the Liverpool City Region is campaigning for, would be used by both Liverpool- HS2 trains and Liverpool-Manchester NPR trains. The emerging NPR network, as indicated by TfN in its draft Strategic Transport Plan (STP), highlights these proposals; as illustrated below.

3.1.5 In addition to the work on NPR, TfN is also addressing connectivity to the network and other pan-North connectivity issues through work on “Strategic Development Corridors” (SDCs).

3.2 High Speed 2

3.2.1 HS2 is the new High Speed line connecting cities in the Midlands and the North to London; with (under current official proposals) , Manchester and being served directly by a new high-speed line; and with Liverpool, and Newcastle (and some other locations) being served by “classic compatible” HS2 trains running off the new line and onto the „conventional‟ network to reach these cities.

3.2.2 HS2 is not just about speed but capacity and connectivity, with there being little space currently available on the (WCML) for more services: i.e., Liverpool has aspirations for two services an hour to London, there is a need for more freight paths, and an aspiration for improved „local‟ services on the WCML north of Crewe.

3.2.3 Current journey times from Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield and Leeds to London are all relatively similar, falling into the 2:00-2:20 (hrs:mins) bracket. Under HS2 proposals the journey time from London to Manchester (and even Preston) will become substantially shorter than that to Liverpool, with the risk that – for example – inward investors will see the City Region as less relatively competitive. A combined HS2/NPR new line (see 3.1.4, above) into the city offers the potential to further improve on the proposed improved journey time, as well as releasing capacity for other improved passenger and freight services. Additionally, NPR/HS2 connectivity, in conjunction with the new fleet on the network and other schemes contained within the City Region‟s Long Term Rail Strategy, will significantly improve both Intra- and Inter- City Region connectivity for the LCR

3.3 Current Transport for the North (TfN) work

3.3.1 There are a number of elements of work currently being undertaken by TfN in order to help make the case for a transformed transport network across the North of . These include:

a) Northern Powerhouse Rail As alluded to above, this is work to develop a new pan-North rail network, transforming the connectivity across the whole North of England. The most recent press release by TfN highlights how for Liverpool the NPR network would mean: “More than 100,000 extra businesses will be within an hour’s reach of Liverpool and nearly 2m more people within 90 minutes of the city centre.” (https://transportforthenorth.com/northern-powerhouse-rail-set- deliver-decades-growth-north/). A Strategic Outline Business Case (SOBC) for NPR is expected in December 2018.

b) Major Road Network TfN and its Partners have defined a Major Road Network (MRN) for the North, which includes key local transport authority roads. TfN is aiming for policies that will improve journey reliability, network efficiency, network resilience and safety. The network identified by TfN and its partners includes both current key economic centres – including international gateways – but also anticipated future key economic centres. A map of this is included below.

c) Analysis and modelling In order to make the case for major transport interventions, TfN has had to develop its modelling and analysis capability, including developing new tools to overcome weaknesses in conventional approaches. This has included both new transport models to represent the whole North and land use models to take advantage of recent improvements in the Department for Transport‟s guidance for business cases (Web TAG).

d) Strategic Transport Plan A Strategic Transport Plan (STP) explains the need for investment in transport and identifies the priority areas. Transport for the North produced a draft earlier this year, which was open for public consultation from January to April (https://transportforthenorth.com/wp-content/uploads/TfN- Strategic-Plan_draft_lr.pdf). As part of this work, TfN is developing a long- term investment programme, identifying interventions covered across all modes. This long-term investment programme ranges from identifying schemes which are already in process – such as schemes covered in ‟s RIS 2 – to those which have been raised by partners or those which TfN has identified as being important to pan-North connectivity. A revised STP taking on board outcomes of the consultation is expected to be produced in January 2019.

e) Strategic Development Corridors The SDC‟s identify current weaknesses in connectivity across the North, and examine the different options for a range of solutions that address these weaknesses, in order to help transform connectivity across the North beyond what the NPR network will offer. Of the seven SDCs, the Liverpool City Region is impacted on by three: “West & ”, “Central ” and “Southern Pennines”. Each SDC will provide a range of suggested transport packages to improve pan-North connectivity – rather than individual transport schemes – and details of these are expected to be produced in 2019, following publication of the revised STP. Schemes raised in the SDC will also feature in the STP‟s long-term investment programme.

f) Integrated and Smart Travel (IST) TfN is working in partnership with operators, transport authorities and the Department for Transport to deliver a scheme that will make it easier for passengers to travel seamlessly across the entire North. This includes work to develop pan-North smart ticketing, payment and information systems, where necessary working with existing products such as ‟s “Walrus” system. The system is currently moving to a testing phase - this involves a limited trial use of smartcards on selected parts of the North‟s rail network - with full rollout expected over a four year period.

3.3.2 The Liverpool City Region is heavily engaged with Transport for the North in all aspects of its work, in order to ensure that the City Region‟s priorities and growth sectors are represented. As a partner, the Liverpool City Region sits on the Transport for the North Board, the Partnership and Executive Boards; the Strategic Transport Plan Programme Board; the TfN Scrutiny Committee; and the Rail North Committee. Specific areas of involvement besides this include:

a) Analytical Assurance Group The Liverpool City Region sits on the Analytical Assurance Group (AAG), making sure that TfN is using best practice in its analysis approach across all work streams, whilst ensuring that both data and models used do not disadvantage the Liverpool City Region. b) Strategic Development Corridors The Liverpool City Region sits on all three relevant SDC Project Boards, and has ensured that both weaknesses and solutions which might have a bearing on pan-Northern connectivity within the Liverpool City Region (and its hinterland) are included within the SDCs. This has included, for example, ensuring input of the Merseytravel Long Term Rail Strategy (https://www.merseytravel.gov.uk/about-us/local-transport- delivery/Documents/10399%20Merseytravel%20LongTermRail_Strategyw eb.pdf) into the process. The SDC work has included joint work with neighbouring authorities, including West Lancs, , and Transport for Wales. c) International Connectivity The International Connectivity Commission produced its report in 2017 (https://transportforthenorth.com/independant-international-connectivity- report/), and the Liverpool City Region has been making sure that the key findings from this research – especially as relates to Liverpool John Lennon Airport – are included in other aspects of TfN‟s work, including the STP and SDCs. d) Freight TfN produced an enhanced freight and logistics report in January 2018 (https://transportforthenorth.com/freight-logistics/). As with International Connectivity, the Liverpool City Region has been making sure that the key findings from this work are incorporated across different TfN work streams. An important part of our case for NPR and HS2 is not just in the improvements in city-to-city connectivity, but also opportunities for released capacity, including the potential for more freight being carried by rail. This is of significant importance to the Liverpool City Region, given the opening of Liverpool 2 and other strategic logistic plans and investments. e) Strategic Transport Plan As mentioned above in 3.3.1, the public consultation on the TfN STP closed in April 2018, with the Liverpool City Region submitting a detailed response to help TfN improve the document. The City Region expects to be able to review the revised STP before its final publication. f) Northern Powerhouse Rail Besides analytical support provided through the AAG, the Liverpool City Region has also been working with TfN in the development of infrastructure and service options as well as solutions for a potential new HS2/NPR Hub station in Liverpool. This work also includes identifying what opportunities there may be for improving local passenger and freight services through the capacity potentially released by NPR. We have also assisted this by inputting our own work into what case there may be for a direct HS2 line to Liverpool, through the evidence developed in the latest iteration of economic study referred to in 3.4 below.

3.4 The Liverpool City Region case for HS2

3.4.1 From 2014 to 2018 the Liverpool City Region commissioned a series of economic studies detailing the potential economic impacts of a direct HS2 link into the city. This has changed from assessing just the impacts of HS2 in 2014 to considering the full impacts resulting from both HS2 and NPR. (A report gathering this body of work together is included as an attachment.)

3.4.2 Current proposals see two HS2 trains an hour to Liverpool leaving the new line at Crewe and using the existing conventional railway to reach the city. This both increases the amount of capacity being used on the crowded WCML north of Crewe and results in a journey time for the city that is not as competitive as some other northern cities. For example, London to Manchester will come down to 67 minutes, Preston to 78 minutes, but Liverpool to 94 minutes. The proposals for Crewe Hub also include the splitting and joining of Liverpool services at Crewe, which can only add to the overall journey time experienced.

3.4.3 The Liverpool City Region did not believe that sufficient account was initially taken by HS2 in considering how best to serve Liverpool, with previous work conducted by HS2 being identified as: a) Based on declining not growing population numbers. b) Not taking into account the potential for extra freight traffic using capacity released by HS2. c) Not appropriately taking into account the growing strength of the City Region‟s general and visitor economy. Work commissioned by the City Region has ensured there is a much greater awareness of the potential benefits from an improved solution.

3.4.4 The most recent work for the Liverpool City Region – produced in September 2018 by Steers – is the most robust in the series of reports to date. This has produced a range of estimated economic benefits for the City Region, including: a) A £15bn GVA uplift – including benefits from journey time savings and property developments. b) An extra 24,000 jobs. c) 3.6m more visitors per annum.

In addition to this, the study also flagged up substantial potential benefits through more freight trains using capacity released by the new line.

3.4.5 Liverpool City Region has also commissioned infrastructure development work to review alignment options, journey times and capital costs with Arup that has informed the work undertaken by TfN and provided assurance for the City Region in respect of the outputs.

4. RESOURCE IMPLICATIONS

4.1 Financial

There are no financial issues associated with this report.

4.2 Human Resources

There are no Human Resource issues associated with this report.

4.3 Physical Assets

None from this report but there may be implications, which are developed in future reports.

4.4 Information Technology

There are no Information Technology issues associated with this report.

5. RISKS AND MITIGATION

5.1 Officer attendance at key TfN meetings and officer review of key TfN documents is critical. This is to ensure input of favourable and accurate Liverpool City Region views in order to mitigate risks.

6. EQUALITY AND DIVERSITY IMPLICATIONS

6.1 There are no specific Equality and Diversity implications arising from the recommendation in this report.

7. COMMUNICATION ISSUES

7.1 Key outcomes in regards to the development of High Speed 2, Northern Powerhouse Rail and other TfN activities will be communicated as and when available. This will be facilitated through existing stakeholder networks established via the Liverpool City Region‟s “Linking Liverpool” campaign.

8. CONCLUSION

8.1 The Liverpool City Region is working closely with TfN to ensure that both Northern Powerhouse Rail and High Speed 2 deliver optimal solutions for the Liverpool City Region, including maximising opportunities for City Region connectivity using released capacity. We have both provided detailed evidence to TfN and helped to oversee the development of their modelling and analytical work, and at all stages ensured that the priorities of the City Region have been taken into account.

8.2 The Strategic Development Corridor work by TfN, alongside the Liverpool City Region‟s own transport plans, will further improve the area‟s connectivity. This transformation in Intra- and Inter- City Region connectivity will result in improved economic performance for the Liverpool City Region.

8.3 A number of strands of TfN‟s work will be providing updated publications over the next few months, including an SOBC produced for Northern Powerhouse Rail in December 2018 and publication of the TfN Strategic Transport Plan in January 2019.

MICK NOONE Director of Integrated Transport

CLLR LIAM ROBINSON Portfolio Holder: Transport and Air Quality

Contact Officer(s):

Ian Raymond, Evidence & Intelligence Officer, Liverpool City Region Combined Authority, [email protected] Paul Johnson, Policy Evidence & Intelligence Advisor, Liverpool City Region Combined Authority, [email protected]

Appendices:

Appendix One – Independent Economic Study: HS2 and the Liverpool City Region

Background Documents:

None