Voter Turnout and Inheritance Rules: Evidence from a Border Region
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Voter turnout and inheritance rules: Evidence from a border region Andrea BONOLDI University of Trento Chiara DALLE NOGARE University of Brescia Niklas POTRAFKE Ifo Institute Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich Abstract The Downsian model of rational voting does not adequately explain high voter turnout when an agent’s vote is not pivotal. This is the case in South Tyrol, an Italian province on the border with Austria. We maintain that voting is expressive in South Tyrol, especially in areas with many entailed farms (geschlossene Höfe), land properties the inheritance of which is regulated by a local law, similar to primogeniture, rooted in the German cultural background of the area. We use data for 116 South Tyrolean municipalities over the period 1998-2010. The results show that the number of per capita entailed farms increases voter turnout. We suggest that entailed farms induce in their owners a self-perception as guardians of the community’s cultural values. JEL: D72, K11, Q15 Keywords: voter turnout, inheritance rules, entailed farms, identity 1 1. Introduction Scholars examine why people vote. Since Downs (1957) formulated the paradox of voting, highlighting the incompatibility of rational behaviour with voting when one’s decision is not pivotal and voting is costly, many studies have tried to find ways out of it. In fact, it is rather unlikely that the high turnout rates one observes in the real world are the consequence of irrational behaviour. A proposed solution to the paradox is the “expressive voting” hypothesis.1 Expressive voting takes place when agents derive utility not just from the material consequences of their casting a vote for their preferred candidate, but also from one’s compliance with voting. Geys (2006) warns against the danger to consider expressive voting per se as the solution to the paradox of voting: as any action can be explained by making the appropriate post hoc assumption, all predictive power is lost. In other words, the expressive voting hypothesis is a tautology unless we can identify the reasons why some people are expressive and some are not. Schuessler (2000) showed the way out of this impasse: to draw from social theory and anthropology. We follow this approach and aim to identify the determinants of voting in a specific geographical context: South Tyrol, an Italian mountain province on the border with Austria. 2 This area, characterised by the presence of different ethno-linguistic groups, was the home of an anthropological field study in the late 1960ies the result of which was a classic in ethnography: “The Hidden Fronteer” (Cole and Wolf , 1974). Cole and Wolf investigated the differences in behaviour and social interaction between the inhabitants of two close villages, German-speaking S. Felix and Italian-speaking Tret. They concluded that many of the observed differences had to do with the distinct ways property was transmitted form one generation to the other, and highlighted the singularity of the legal institution called geschlossener Hof, typical of the local German culture. A geschlossener Hof, or mountain entailed farm, is an agricultural property that cannot be split, and has to be passed on to just one heir, usually the first son by the local tradition. The Italian counterpart is equal treatment of all siblings and owners’ power to dispose of their properties at will. We examine whether the presence of entailed farms makes a difference for voter turnout. We use data on the geographical distribution of entailed farms and, using regression analysis, we test whether the South Tyrolean municipalities with the highest concentration of entailed farms show 1 On what predicts voter turnout see, for example, Frey (1971), Uhlaner (1989), Schram and van Winden (1991), Brender (2003), Geys (2006), Gerber et al. (2008), Harder and Krosnick (2008), Rolphe (2012), Martins and Veiga (2013), Smets and van Ham (2013), Artés (2014), Hillman et al. (2015), Kauder and Potrafke (2015). 2 South Tyrol, also known as Alto Adige or Bolzano province, is an unexplored object of investigation in the field of social choice and political economy. Many studies using data for Italian municipalities exclude South Tyrol because its autonomous status makes it not easily comparable with the other parts of Italy (see for instance Gennari and Messina, 2014). 2 significantly different turnout rates. To our knowledge, this is the first time these data are used in quantitative analysis. We consider data over the period 1998-2010 and control for shoe-leather costs, peer effect and weather indicators as well as for demographic composition. We rule out that the number of entailed farms captures effects other than the very inheritance rule, such as municipalities’ ethnical composition and agricultural vocation. We show that, indeed, inheritance rules have an impact on turnout. In the specific South Tyrolean case, this may be due to the fact that entailed farms’ inheritance rule invests their owners with the awareness of being instrumental to the persistence of a value system that enhances in them the desire to use voting as a way to re- affirm to oneself and to others one’s identity. In this sense, Schuessler’s thesis that voting has to do with identity is confirmed. 2. South Tyrol: cultural and political context Alto Adige-South Tyrol, the northernmost province of the Italian Republic, enjoys a special regime of political autonomy, based on the specificity of its historical experience (Steininger 2003). In the early Middle Ages many people of German origin migrated to this mountainous area, while native Romansh language speakers remained confined in few valleys in the Dolomites and Upper Venosta- Vinschgau. Since 1363 up until World War 1 part of the Habsburg territories, South Tyrol was then annexed to Italy. After coming to power, the fascist regime tried to italianize the land through a drastic compression of the rights of the German-speaking population and promoting immigration from the Italian provinces. The Paris Agreement of 1946 between Austria, Italy and the victorious powers stated that South Tyrol would remain part of Italy, but ensured large areas of self- government and protection of the cultural identity of the German speaking group. Nowadays, according to the 2011 census, 62.3% of the population belongs to the German linguistic group, 23.4% to the Italian one, 4.1% to the Ladin (Romansh speaking) minority, and 10.2% to other groups (Astat 2013). The Italian-speaking population is concentrated almost exclusively in few urban centers (Bolzano-Bozen, Merano-Meran and Laives-Leifers). A strong separation between language groups, with the aim of maintaining the unique characteristics of the German-speaking population, has been pursued especially through cultural and educational policies. Assignments of jobs and public resources (grants, public housing etc.) are strictly defined according to the relative weight of the linguistic groups. In fact, since the end of World War 2 the province has been ruled by Sűdtiroler Volkspartei, centrist and Catholic-inspired, representing the German-speaking population. 3 South Tyrol is the second wealthiest Italian province as measured by per capita GDP (after Milan) and enjoys 17th place in Europe (Eurostat NUTS 2 regions, 2011). Provincial value added is composed as follows: 75% services, 21% industry, 4% agriculture (Istat, 2011 data). However, in 1950 South Tyrol was in 57th place as for per capita GDP among the 92 Italian provinces, with a population still mainly employed in agriculture.3 Though small in terms of employment and value added, the agricultural sector still enjoys wide esteem by the local population, who considers farmers as the traditional guardians of cultural identity and also associates farmers with the ecological control of the mountain territory (Maurer, 2009). This high consideration also comes from the historical role played by farmers in this area. Tyrolean peasantry have enjoyed, since the XV cent., a privileged position in comparison to the farmers of other parts of the Habsburg monarchy. In fact, Tyrolean peasants had their own representatives in the provincial Diet as well as clergy, aristocracy and the city (Kofler, 1985).4 As a consequence of this peculiar historical experience, even in more recent times the farming community in South Tyrol has been able to express a strong political representation. Farming is also associated with a sense of belonging to a definite social group, with a strong farmers’ association able to exercise lobbying pressure and with assiduous voting. There is a legal institution in South Tyrol that is unique within the Italian legislation: the entailed farm (Mori and Hintner 2013; Poggeschi 2008). The term (geschlossener Hof in German) identifies a farm which, at the death of the owner, is not divided among the heirs, but goes to only one person, usually one of the children. The other heirs are entitled only to a compensation proportional not to the value of the land, but to its production. In modern times, most of the other heirs do not stay at the farm as subordinates, as it once used to be, but they generally pursue a career in the service industry. Consequently, the other heirs usually leave the village and go to town. The owner of an entailed farm cannot, unless special authorization, dispose of the property, which must be understood, therefore, as an organic whole to be transmitted from father to son. This exception to the principles of Italian private law (equal treatment of co-heirs, free disposal of property by the owner) is the result of a historical evolution. The origins of this institution are to be found in the Germanic law, which in some areas tended to favor the right of the family (Sippe) than that of individuals. In the Alps entailed farms have been present since the Middle Ages, almost 3 Land development was the result of a mix of external factors - increasing external demand for quality agricultural products and for the tourism sector, development of the road and rail Brenner axis- and generally well oriented local policies, favored by the considerable financial resources guaranteed by the autonomy (Leonardi 2009; Bonoldi 2009).