(CUWS) Outreach Journal # 1196

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USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

CUWS Outreach Journal 1196 18 December 2015

Feature Item: “Experts Worry That India is Creating New Fuel for an Arsenal of H-bombs”. Authored by Adrian Levy; published by the Center for Public Integrity, Washington, D.C.; December 16, 2015. http://www.publicintegrity.org/2015/12/16/18874/experts-worry-india-creating-new-fuel- arsenal-h-bombs India is building a top-secret facility in southern Karnataka to augment its nuclear power for ‘civilian’ use as well as increase and upgrade its weapons that could deeply unsettle its neighbours, according to a report published by the Center for Public Integrity. The report says work on the project began early in 2012 when tribal pastureland was blocked off with a barbed-wire fence at Challakere for a project that experts say will be the subcontinent’s largest military-run complex of nuclear centrifuges, atomic-research laboratories, and weapons – and aircraft-testing facilities when it’s completed, probably sometime in 2017. The report listed the project’s primary aims to expand the government’s nuclear research, to produce fuel for India’s nuclear reactors, and to help power country’s fleet of new submarines. “But another, more controversial ambition, according to retired Indian government officials and independent experts in London and Washington, is to give India an extra stockpile of enriched uranium fuel that could be used in new hydrogen bombs, also known as thermonuclear weapons, substantially increasing the explosive force of those in its existing nuclear arsenal,” the report says.

U.S. Nuclear Weapons 1. AFA Urges Congress to Fund Long Range Standoff Weapon 2. Quarrel over Next-Gen Nuclear Cruise Missile Heats Up

U.S. Counter-WMD 1. Officer: US Missile Defense Unlikely to Be Impregnable to Russian Strategic Missile Forces 2. Revealed: Russia's Plans for Lethal New S-500 Missile System 3. US and Romania Missile Defense Site 'Technically Capable'

U.S. Arms Control 1. Russian Nuclear Sub Successfully Test-Fires Strategic Sineva Missile (VIDEO) 2. Russia Will Start Building Seventh Borei-Class Submarine on December 18 3. Advanced Missile Systems Represent 56% of Russia's Strategic Missile Forces 4. First Launch of Russia's New Sarmat Ballistic Missile will be Carried Out from Plesetsk 5. Russian Strategic Missile Force New Control System to Retarget Missiles Instantly — Source

Homeland Security/The Americas 1. Panel: Evolving Defense Technologies Require New Strategies

Asia/Pacific 1. US Expert Calls for More Serious Attention to N. Korea’s H-Bomb Claims 2. Chinese Submarine Rehearsed Attack on US Aircraft Carrier Reagan 3. China Advances Sea- and Land-Based Nuclear Deterrent Capabilities 4. N. Korea Could Deploy H-bomb Around 2020: 38 North 5. U.S. Military Repeatedly Shipped Live Anthrax to Korea

Europe/Russia 1. Strategic Offensive, Defensive Forces to be Russian Army Priorities in 2016 2. Russia to Finalize Delivery of S-300 Air Defense Systems to Iran in 2016 3. Rolls-Royce Crisis: Government may Nationalise Company's Nuclear Submarine Business

Middle East 1. Iran to Check Possible Breach of JCPOA in US Visa Waiver Bill: Diplomat 2. Board of Governors Adopts ‘Historic’ Resolution on Iran’s PMD 3. Official: Iran Has Inside Men in Enemy Spy Agencies 4. UN Body Closes File on Iran's Past Nuclear Weapons Work; Israel Says Decision 'Political' 5. Iran to Ship 8.5 Tonnes of Uranium Materials to Russia Before Yearend — Diplomat 6. Kerry Welcomes IAEA Decision to Close Iran’s PMD Case 7. Iran Defense Minister Says Emad Missile 'Conventional' 8. DM: Iran to Continue Developing Missile Industries Irrespective of 2231 Resolution 9. Iran Begins Removing Centrifuges Following IAEA Resolution: Salehi 10. Israel’s Newest Submarine Leaves Germany, Bound for Haifa 11. US could Start Lifting Iran Sanctions in January under Nuclear Deal

India/Pakistan 1. Pakistan Conducted Successful Test of the Shaheen 1-A Ballistic Missile 2. Concerned about Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal, Missiles: US

Africa 1. IS Militants Seized Chemical weapons in Libya, Says Cousin of Late Libyan Leader

Commentary 1. The Truth about 3-D Printing and Nuclear Proliferation 2. Obama Backs Biggest Nuclear Arms Buildup Since Cold War 3. Commentary: Needed: A Revolution in US Military Education

4. China's 2,500 Mile-Range 'Carrier-Killer' Missile: A Nuclear Threat?

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Defense News – Tysons Corner, VA AFA Urges Congress to Fund Long Range Standoff Weapon By Lara Seligman December 15, 2015 WASHINGTON -- As one former defense secretary tries to kill the Pentagon’s effort to develop a next-generation nuclear cruise missile capability, the Air Force Association is urging Congress to move ahead with funding the program. William Perry, who led the Defense Department's development and procurement of the B-2 stealth bomber and the current air-launched cruise missile in the 1990s, urged President Obama to cancel the Long Range Stand-Off (LRSO) program, arguing the step could lay the foundation for a global ban on nuclear weapons. “Because they can be launched without warning and come in both nuclear and conventional variants, cruise missiles are a uniquely destabilizing type of weapon,” Perry wrote in an Oct. 15 Washington Post op-ed. President Obama can lead the world to a stabler and safer future by canceling plans for a new U.S. nuclear-capable cruise missile.” AFA challenged Perry’s suggestion in a Dec. 14 letter to leaders of the four defense congressional committees, arguing that building LRSO to arm the Long Range Strike Bomber, the planned B-2 replacement, is critical to national security. The current capability, the Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM), is essential to the nuclear deterrent role of the bomber leg of the Pentagon’s nuclear triad, AFA President Larry Spencer and Executive Vice President Mark Barrett wrote in the letter. “Funding its replacement, LRSO, is particularly important given the advanced air defenses of our adversaries,” Spencer and Barrett wrote. “Without a sustained bomber stand-off capability enabled by a modern cruise missile, the bomber leg of the triad will be increasingly at risk.” The AFA officials also refuted Perry’s suggestion that the plan to buy 1000 LRSOs will inspire other countries to stand down their nuclear forces. “There are no signs the long-established military requirement for a nuclear-capable standoff cruise missile has diminished,” they wrote. “Instead, maintaining a strong LRSO capability provides the most non-proliferation incentive by convincing allied countries they do not need to develop their own nuclear weapons.” Spencer and Barrett urged Congress to stay on track to fully fund LRSO. "The LRSO-enabled bomber in the nuclear Triad provides the President with a flexible and credible demonstration of US willingness to execute military force when necessary to counter adversaries around the world who choose to threaten our security interests," they wrote.

Flightglobal.com – Sutton, U.K. Quarrel over Next-Gen Nuclear Cruise Missile Heats Up By James Drew 17 December, 2015 Washington, D.C. -- As the voices opposing America’s new nuclear-tipped cruise missile grow louder, recently-retired air force general Larry Spencer has rejected suggestions that cancelling the programme will inspire other nations to follow suit. The former vice chief of staff, now president of the Air Force Association, tells US lawmakers in an open letter this week that the military requirement for nuclear-capable cruise missiles carried by strategic bombers has not diminished. In fact, allies might develop their own nuclear weapons for strategic deterrence in the absence of a strong US nuclear force, the letter suggests. The air force wants to build at least 1,000 modern cruise missiles to replace the outdated AGM-86B air-launched cruise missile (ALCM), with the first production missile paired with the W80-4 nuclear warhead expected by 2025. While partly conceived for integration with the non-stealthy Boeing B- 52, nuclear and non-nuclear variants will also be fielded on the new Long-Range Strike Bomber. This week, eight senators including presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders objected to the Long-Range Standoff (LRSO) weapon project in a letter to President Obama, arguing that maintaining conventional and nuclear variants could lead to “devastating miscalculations” and is a redundant capability. “Outdated and unnecessary nuclear weapons are relics of the past,” the letter states. Despite some opposition, LRSO has been funded in the Fiscal 2016 omnibus spending bill being considered by Congress. Funding levels were cut by $20.5 million to $16.1 million because of “execution delays,” just as bomber development funding has been halved because of delays awarding the contract won by Northrop Grumman in October. LRSO is valued at upwards of $20 billion, including life-extension of the W80 thermonuclear warhead by the US National Nuclear Security Administration. Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists tell Flightglobal that Pentagon officials haven’t made a compelling case for building LRSO, over reliance on existing nuclear weapons in combination with the long-range, conventional AGM-158B Lockheed Martin Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Weapon (JASSM-ER) – which is currently being paired with the B-52. “Instead, they argue for the LRSO as if they were back in the late-1970s arguing for the ALCM, ignoring the vast revolution in long-range conventional weapons that has happened in the meantime,” he says.

Lockheed received its 14th production contract for the JASSM cruise missile this week, bringing the total number ordered by the US military and international partners to 2,600. Of that figure, 140 were the new extended-range variant for the air force. Many service officials have expressed that long-range weapons like JASSM-ER and LRSO are critical to dismantling modern, integrated air defences, since even stealth aircraft can be targeted by some sophisticated Russian and Chinese weaponry. https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/quarrel-over-next-gen-nuclear-cruise-missile-heats- u-420176/ Return to Top

TASS Russian News Agency Officer: US Missile Defense Unlikely to Be Impregnable to Russian Strategic Missile Forces Creation of intercontinental ballistic missiles of the next generation "will secure a guaranteed neutralisation of new potential threats" December 16, 2015 MOSCOW, December 16. /TASS/. The existing and would-be system of US national missile defense cannot be impregnable to Russia's Strategic Missile Troops, Commander Col Gen Sergey Karakayev told reporters on Wednesday. "Experts' assessments prove that the current deployed system of the missile defense, according to its information and fire capabilities, cannot be impregnable to a massive impact by the group of Russia's Strategic Missile Forces," Karakayev said ahead of Day of Strategic Missile Forces. Integration of different in tasks and characteristics means in the new system of US missile defense, according to US estimates, will allow to organise several echelons of defense and to secure "an impact on space and air targets" along any section of their trajectories, the general said. Primarily, missiles and their warheads are meant to be destroyed and so laser and kinetic energy weapons, anti-missile systems and ground-, aircraft-and space-based interceptor systems are planned to be incorporated into the would-be systems of anti-missile defense, he said. Also, the plans aimed at developing Russia’s Strategic Missile Troops and the strategic nuclear force on the whole have been "corrected with regard to the forecasted growth and scope of consistent development of the information and striking power means of this system." Karakayev said. "The implementation of our plans will allow to use advanced and effective means and ways to counteract any system of anti-missile defense," he said adding that "the RVSN will be developing by upgrading weapons in the maximum possible degree, but by taking into consideration the START Treaty." Creation of intercontinental ballistic missiles of the next generation "will secure a guaranteed neutralisation of new potential threats," he said.

The National Interest – Washington, D.C. The Buzz Revealed: Russia's Plans for Lethal New S-500 Missile System By Dave Majumdar December 16, 2015 Russia will soon be fielding the powerful S-500 integrated air and missile defense system, which is currently under development by the Moscow-based defense firm Almaz Antey. Is not clear if the new weapon—which is referred to as both the S-500 Prometey and as the 55R6M Triumfator-M—is an upgraded variant of powerful S-400 (pictured) that Russia recently deployed to Syria or a clean-sheet design. However, what is known is that the new S-500 boasts impressive capabilities and will pose an even greater threat to allied air power than its predecessors once it becomes fully operational. Igor Korotchenko, director of the Russian think-tank Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade and chairman of the Russian ministry of defense’s public council, told the state-owned media outlet

Sputnik last Friday that the new weapon would enter service shortly. “We heard figures indicating that the Russian Aerospace Forces will soon receive more S-400 systems. The S-500 will soon finish state tests and enter service,” Korotchenko said following a Russian defense ministry board meeting. Earlier reports had suggested that the S-500 would enter service in 2017. There is little solid information about the new missile defense system available—but there are some indications that it is a completely new design. “Work is underway to create a new fifth-generation air defence system S-500 which can destroy aerodynamic and ballistic targets of all types at all altitudes used in combat,” Russian deputy defense minister Yuri Borisov told TASS in 2014. The S-500 is expected to able to detect and simultaneously attack up to ten ballistic missile warheads flying at speeds of up to 23 thousand feet per second. It is also reportedly being designed to use hit-to-kill interceptors—a design with similarities to Lockheed Martin's Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD). It may have a range as great as 373 miles and hit targets as high as 115 miles. That means the S-500 will be able to intercept warheads incoming from space. Like all modern Russian air defense systems, the S-500 is expected to be highly mobile and will use a network of radars for targeting over vast distances. The missile system is expected to use the 91N6A(M) battle management radar, a modified 96L6-TsP acquisition radar, as well as the new 76T6 multimode engagement and 77T6 ABM engagement radars, according to Missile Threat— which is run by the George C. Marshall and Claremont Institutes. The S-500s are also expected to be networked with their S-400 and S-300 predecessors as part of an overall integrated air-defense network. Dave Majumdar is the defense editor for The National Interest. http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/revealed-russias-plans-lethal-new-s-500-missile- system-14644 Return to Top

Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency US and Romania Missile Defense Site 'Technically Capable' 18 December 2015 The United States and Romania have completed work on a missile defense site near the Romanian capital of Bucharest to defend against potential attack from Iran, US officials told Reuters. US and Romanian governments are expected to make a formal announcement on Friday, declaring that the so-called Aegis Ashore site is "technically capable," officials said. "That means all the major components of the missile defense system, including the missiles, are in place, and have been handed over to military commanders," an official told Reuters. Military personnel must still integrate the site with NATO's broader ballistic missile defense system before it is ready for combat, the official said, adding that it should be compliant early next year. Navy spokesman Lieutenant Commander Tim Hawkins stated that the site was "an important step in our efforts to protect against the growing threat posed by the proliferation of ballistic missiles of increasingly greater ranges, lethality and sophistication."

RT (Russia Today) – Moscow, Russia Russian Nuclear Sub Successfully Test-Fires Strategic Sineva Missile (VIDEO) 12 December 2015 A Russian missile submarine has successfully test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), dubbed the “Sineva” in the Barents Sea in the latest of a series of tests of the country’s nuclear weapons arsenal, the Defense Ministry said. “Today, the crew of Captain Dmitry Zelikov on the nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine Verkhoturye (NATO: Delta IV) of the Northern Fleet made a successful launch of the ‘Sineva’ intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from a designated area in the Barents Sea,” the ministry said in a statement on Saturday. The ICBM was directed towards the Kura rocket test range in Kamchatka in Russia’s Far East and was launched from an underwater position. It marked the 27th successful launch of a ballistic missile from the Verkhoturye sub, the ministry added. It was the fourth test of a strategic sub-launched missile Russia has conducted this year. In September and again in October, two Bulava missile tests were conducted. In November, a Delta IV- class submarine, the Tula, successfully test-fired a ‘Sineva’ strategic missile. https://www.rt.com/news/325744-russia-ballistic-missile-launch/ Return to Top

TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia Russia Will Start Building Seventh Borei-Class Submarine on December 18 The Emperor Alexander III, armed with the Bulava missiles, will be built at the Severodvinsk shipyard December 14, 2015 MOSCOW, December 14. /TASS/. Another Russian nuclear-powered missile submarine of the Borei- A project - the Emperor Alexander III, armed with the Bulava missiles, will be laid down at the Severodvinsk shipyard on December 18, Russian Defence Ministry’s spokesman for the Navy Igor Dygalo said on Monday. "The laying down ceremony of the Emperor Alexander III newest Borei-A project nuclear submarine will be held at the Sevmash shipyard in the city of Severodvinsk on December 18," the official said. According to Dygalo, the ceremony will be attended by representatives of the Russian Defence Ministry top leadership, the Navy chief command, the Northern Fleet command and the White Sea naval base. "The series of the fourth-generation nuclear-powered submarine cruisers of projects Borei and Borei-A, armed with the Bulava ballistic missiles, is to become the core of the Russian naval strategic nuclear forces for the coming decades," Deputy Commander of the Russian Navy Viktor Bursuk said. Dygalo said that three Borei-A project submarines - the Knyaz Vladimir, Knyaz Oleg and Generalissimo Suvorov - are currently at different stages of building at the Sevmash shipyard. The Russian Navy operates three Borei-class submarines, the flag ship Yury Dolgoruky, Alexander Nevsky and Vladimir Monomakh. The first two were commissioned in 2013, while the latest one is in active service since December 2014. The first submarine of the Project 955-A Borei-II class, dubbed Knyaz Vladimir, is expected to enter service in 2017. By 2020, the Russian Navy plans to operate a total of eight Borei class ballistic missile submarines, three Project 955 subs and five Project 955-A vessels. The Borei class submarines are expected to remain in service for decades to come, at least until 2040. http://tass.ru/en/defense/843776 Return to Top

Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency Advanced Missile Systems Represent 56% of Russia's Strategic Missile Forces Commander of Russia's Strategic Missile Forces Col. Gen. Sergei Karakayev said that by 2022, the Strategic Missile Forces should be completely reequipped with modern missile systems, in line with the Russian president's instructions. 16 December 2015 MOSCOW (Sputnik) — The share of modern strategic missile systems in the Russian army has risen to 56 percent, Commander of Russia's Strategic Missile Forces Col. Gen. Sergei Karakayev said Wednesday.

TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia First Launch of Russia's New Sarmat Ballistic Missile will be Carried Out from Plesetsk The cutting-edge missile is a successor to the world’s largest and most formidable ballistic missile, the RS-20V Voyevoda, weighing 210 tonnes and carrying 10 warheads 750 kilotons each December 16, 2015 MOSCOW, December 16. /TASS/. The Russian Strategic Missile Forces will carry out the first launch of the Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile from the Plesetsk military cosmodrome, the force Commander Colonel General Sergey Karakayev told reporters on Wednesday in the run-up to Strategic Missile Forces Day. "The testing of the newest missile systems is now conducted at the Kapustin Yar range [Astrakhan region] and at the Plesetsk cosmodrome [northwest Russia]. However, we plan to use the Plesetsk cosmodrome for testing the Sarmat missile system," Karakayev said. "The northern spaceport is extensively used for various trials linked with the Yars missile system," the commander said. The launches are carried out from Plesetsk and the Dombarovsky launch base (Orenburg region) on Kura range targets, as well as from Kapustin Yar range on Balkhash range, he added. Previously, a defense industry source told TASS that the Sarmat prototype was ready, and its drop and flight development tests at Plesetsk will be carried out in spring-summer 2016. The prototype was made several months behind schedule, however, the new missile is planned to enter service on the original schedule - in late 2018. The RS-28 Sarmat is the newest heavy liquid-propelled intercontinental ballistic missile currently being developed for the Russian military. It is to replace the old Soviet R-36M missiles, dubbed ‘Satan’ by NATO, as the heavy silo-based component of the Russian nuclear deterrence. It has been in development since 2009 and is scheduled to start replacing the old ICBM’s in 2018. The beginning of Sarmat’s drop tests depends on the time of the reconfiguration of the silo at the Plesetsk site, which will be used for testing. The conversion is to be completed by March 2016, and the first drop test of the missile is planned or the same month, the source said. According to him, if the tests are successful, there will be no more drop tests. "The beginning of the Sarmat ICBM flight tests should be expected in July-August 2016," the source said, adding that under the usual procedure, the time interval between the two types of tests is three to four months. Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov said previously that the mass of the Sarmat ICBM warhead is 10 tonnes, and the missile is capable of destroying targets flying across both the North and South Pole. The Sarmat ICBM that is to replace the Voyevoda, will be created in several versions, Borisov said.

The Sarmat heavy ICBM was co-developed by NPO Mashinostroyeniya in Reutov (Moscow Region) and the Makeyev State Missile Centre in Miass. According to the developers, the advanced Sarmat will weigh within 100 tonnes. According to Yuri Borisov, its range will exceed 11,000 km. The cutting-edge missile is designed as a successor to the world’s largest and most formidable ballistic missile, the RS-20V Voyevoda, weighing 210 tonnes and carrying 10 individually targeted warheads 750 kilotons each. http://tass.ru/en/defense/844524 Return to Top

TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia Russian Strategic Missile Force New Control System to Retarget Missiles Instantly — Source The system will be put into operation starting next year December 17, 2015 MOSCOW, December 17. /TASS/. A new automated system of the Russian Strategic Missile Force’s combat control will help retarget intercontinental ballistic missiles ‘instantly’ before their launch, a source in Russia’s General Staff told TASS on Thursday. Strategic Missile Force Commander Sergey Karakayev said on Wednesday the troops had received a new combat control system to promptly retarget missiles. The system will start to be put into operation from next year, he added. "The talk is about retargeting Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles immediately before their launch when a need arises suddenly to deliver a strike against other unplanned targets due to a sharp change in the situation. In this case, the new control system will enter new target coordinates into a missile in a remote control mode instantly to destroy the targets," the source said. If a missile has been launched, it can’t be retargeted, the source said. Today not a single nuclear power has such technology, the source added. http://tass.ru/en/defense/844973 Return to Top

Defense News – Tysons Corner, VA Panel: Evolving Defense Technologies Require New Strategies By Andrew Clevenger December 14, 2015 WASHINGTON — With the United States’ technological edge in defense eroding as potential adversaries develop capabilities, the US needs to develop new strategies for future engagements, a panel of experts said Monday.

Issue No. 1196, 18 December 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama For example, Russia’s recent behavior suggests that it doesn’t have a similar view to the US on warfare and competition, said Jerry Hendrix, director of the Center for New American Security Defense Strategies and Assessments program. Russia’s maneuvers into Crimea and Ukraine were hybrid warfare, with "little green men" and some standoff intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, he said. In Syria, Russia has been not been using precision strike weapons or laser-guided bombs, but dropping “dumb bombs.” ”What we saw with Russia moving into Syria I think tells us that these things can turn left or right, but not follow along the same track that we would expect them,” Hendrix said. Hendrix’s remarks came Monday at Setting the Next Defense Agenda, the inaugural national security forum hosted by CNAS. In the Baltic, Russia’s advances in Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2AD) have run counter to the US’ strategic bet that it would be operating in permissive environments, he said. “We are behind in adapting to that,” Hendrix said of Russia’s A2AD efforts. “We have lagged strategically in our approach.” Elbridge Colby, a senior fellow at CNAS, emphasized Russia and China’s evolving approach to nuclear weapons. For example, Russia has been contemplating the limited use of a nuclear weapon to end a conflict, he said. Chinese plans possibly involve developing superior strength in the Pacific through conventional weapons, requiring the US to escalate to nuclear weapons if it wants to reclaim military superiority, he said. “Any conflict that involves the United States and China or the United States and Russia is going to involve nuclear weapons,” he said. “This means having a defense strategy that very clearly and practically has ways of plausibly deterring an adversary from using nuclear weapons, or god forbid if they have been used, terminating their usage in terms that are favorable to us.” Michael C. Horowitz, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, pointed to the proliferation of unmanned or autonomous systems as one of the most important trends in national security. “This technology is spreading, and it is spreading quickly,” he said. Particularly with the use of autonomous systems, the dynamics of the battlespace are speeding up because decision cycles are getting shorter, he said. Often, when a crisis emerges, it doesn’t often escalate to war because cooler heads have time to prevail, he said. With autonomous systems in play, either there isn’t time for cooler heads to de-escalate a situation, or people have been removed from the decision-making loop already, he said. The US must develop strategies that incorporate these new circumstances, he said. But widespread use of autonomous systems doesn’t have to be destabilizing, he maintained. Much drone work involves surveillance, he said, and by closely watching an adversary, one has more data to consider when deciding whether or not a certain action should be considered threatening. http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/industry/2015/12/14/panel- evolving-defense-technologies-require-new-strategies/77314734/ Return to Top

The Korea Times – Seoul, South Korea US Expert Calls for More Serious Attention to N. Korea’s H-Bomb Claims December 14, 2015 WASHINGTON (Yonhap) — The United States should more seriously take North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s claims that the country has developed hydrogen bombs, an expert said, pointing out that the international community has often incorrectly underestimated Pyongyang’s capabilities. The North’s leader made the H-bomb claims last week, saying the country has become a “powerful nuclear weapons state.” It was the first time that Kim has publicly mentioned the North’s development of an hydrogen bomb, which uses more advanced technology and is considered much more powerful than conventional nuclear weapons. But the White House effectively rejected the claims, saying U.S. intelligence “calls into serious question those claims.” Officials in Seoul also expressed skepticism, saying Pyongyang is not believed to have such capabilities when it has not yet mastered the technology to miniaturize nuclear warheads. “While Kim’s assertion about hydrogen bombs is being met with expert skepticism, experts have frequently underestimated North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs due to ideologically driven analysis, political expediency and the belief that a technologically and economically backward nation could not achieve the necessary breakthroughs,” said Bruce Klingner, a senior Korea expert at the Heritage Foundation. “Skeptics initially dismissed evidence of North Korea’s plutonium-based nuclear weapons, highly enriched uranium (HEU) program, involvement in constructing a Syrian nuclear reactor and ability to develop long-range missiles,” the expert said in an article to the National Interest magazine. Klinger argued that the North is already a nuclear threat regardless of the validity of Kim’s hydrogen bomb assertion, adding that the communist nation is believed to have 10-16 nuclear bombs currently and the arsenal could expand to as many as 100 in five years. Pyongyang’s missile capabilities have made progress big enough to threaten the U.S., he said. “Experts will assess and debate North Korea’s latest nuclear claim, but the regime already poses a serious and growing nuclear threat to the United States and its allies,” Klinger said. Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, said that it appears to be “a bit of a stretch” for the North to build a staged thermonuclear weapon in which the radiation from a fission primary compresses a secondary stage of thermonuclear fuel. And a more technically plausible scenario is that the North might be experimenting with fusion fuels, such as deuterium or lithium, to boost the yield of a fission explosion, he said. Still, however, the expert called for caution. “So, while a staged thermonuclear weapon is likely more than North Korea can, at the moment, achieve technically, it is a mistake to rule out the aspiration by Pyongyang,” he said.

Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency Chinese Submarine Rehearsed Attack on US Aircraft Carrier Reagan 15 December 2015 With tensions high between Washington and Beijing, American defense officials claim that a Chinese submarine recently conducted a simulated cruise missile attack on the USS Reagan. Earlier this year, details began to emerge about an incident in the Sea of Japan. After leaving port in Yokosuka on the weekend of October 24, the aircraft carrier USS Reagan reportedly came into close contact with a Chinese submarine. According to the Washington Free Beacon, this was "the closest encounter" between a US aircraft carrier and a Chinese submersible in nearly a decade. But according to US defense officials speaking to the Free Beacon, the encounter also involved that submarine locking onto the aircraft carrier as part of a simulated targeting exercise. "If true, this would be yet another case of China trying to show us that they can hold our forces in the region at risk," Virginia Representative Randy Forbes, chairman of the House Armed Services subcommittee on sea power, told the Free Beacon. "Coming on the heels of anti-satellite tests and other demonstrations, this latest incident should be a reminder of the destabilizing course that China is on and the challenges we face in maintaining a stable military balance in the Asia-Pacific region." If true, such a maneuver could be a violation of the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, also known as CUES. A section of that multinational agreement states that naval commanders should avoid actions what could result in mishaps. "Simulation of attacks by aiming guns, missiles, fire control radar, torpedo tubes or other weapons in the direction of vessels or aircraft encountered." The Obama administration reportedly kept quiet about the incident for fear of further disrupting relations between the US and Chinese militaries. When asked directly, Pacific Command spokesman Capt. Darryn James instead assured reporters of the US Navy’s capabilities. "I cannot discuss submarine operations, reports of submarine operations, or rumors of submarine operations," he said, according to the Free Beacon. "I can tell you that we are completely confident in the effectiveness and capabilities of the ships and aircraft of the forward-deployed naval force." The incident occurred only two days before the USS Lassen conducted provocative patrols through the South China Sea. That operation was meant to signal Washington’s protest over Beijing’s construction of artificial islands in the Spratly archipelago. A highly contested region through which nearly $5 trillion in trade passes annually, China lays claim to most of the South China Sea, though there are overlapping claims by Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan. While Washington has accused Beijing of attempted to establish an air defense zone in the region, China has maintained that it has every right to build within its own territory, and that the islands are mean primarily for humanitarian purposes.

On Monday, reports also surfaced that the US Navy is looking for ways to shore up its anti-ship missile systems, citing concerns of Chinese military prowess. "You’re going to lose ships and jets and people," David Ochmanek, a former senior Pentagon official, told Foreign Policy, referencing a hypothetical military showdown between the US and China. "Our military establishment came to this realization reluctantly. The challenge is as much conceptual as it is hardware related." http://sputniknews.com/us/20151215/1031800553/china-reagan-targeting-exercise.html Return to Top

Janes.com – London, U.K. China Advances Sea- and Land-Based Nuclear Deterrent Capabilities Richard D Fisher Jr, Washington, DC - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly 15 December 2015 China has advanced its nuclear deterrent capabilities by sending a Type 094 ('Jin'-class) nuclear- powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) out on its first deterrent patrol and by conducting a fifth reported test of its mobile, solid-fuel, multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV)-capable DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), according to US officials. Although China's first second-generation Type 094 was launched in 2004, according to IHS Jane's Fighting Ships , US officials have not acknowledged that its premier deterrent patrol had occurred until this month. "Given China's known capabilities and their efforts to develop a sea-based deterrent, in absence of indicators to the contrary it is prudent to assume that patrols are occurring," said US Strategic Command spokesperson US Navy captain Pamela Kunzein in a statement to The Washington Times published on 10 December. The People's Liberation Army Navy's (PLAN's) preparations for deterrent patrols, however, have been lengthy. The Pentagon's 2014 annual report to the US Congress on China's Military Power had stated: "China is likely to conduct its first nuclear deterrence patrols with the JIN-class SSBN in 2014." Since at least 2008 Chinese internet imagery has shown the Type 094 based at the new large PLAN base at Yalong Bay on Hainan Island. Recent satellite images have shown three Type 094s at Yalong Bay. The Pentagon's China report said in its 2015 edition that four Jin-class SSBNs are currently operational and for several years has stated up to five may be built. However, in Congressional testimony on 15 April the previous US Pacific Command commander, Admiral Samuel Locklear, said China might build up to eight Type 094s. The Type 094 SSBN is armed with 12 7,000-8,000 km range JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missiles armed with single nuclear warheads.

The Korea Times – Seoul, South Korea N. Korea Could Deploy H-bomb Around 2020: 38 North By Chang Jae-soon December 16, 2015 WASHINGTON (Yonhap) — North Korea’s claims of hydrogen bomb development are technically unlikely for now, but the communist nation could deploy a single-stage thermonuclear weapon with a yield of 100 kilotons by around 2020, a U.S. expert claimed Wednesday. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un claimed last week that the country has become a “powerful nuclear weapons state ready to detonate a self-reliant A-bomb and H-bomb.” It was believed to be the first time that Kim has publicly claimed development of an hydrogen bomb, which is much more powerful than conventional nuclear weapons. But the White House effectively rejected the claims, saying U.S. intelligence “calls into serious question those claims.” Officials in Seoul also expressed skepticism, saying Pyongyang is not believed to have such capabilities when it has not yet mastered the technology to miniaturize nuclear warheads. Joel Wit, editor of the website 38 North, said during a press briefing that the North’s H-bomb claim is “technically unlikely, but boosting yields with fusion fuels is not.” He also said that every country that has built nuclear weapons has done that as next step in the development process. “Our projection is that by 2020, they could reach the deployment of a single-stage thermonuclear weapon. They could also make significant progress on the two-stage, the larger yield nuclear weapon,” he told reporters. The 100 kiloton-yield is “quite significant from where we think they are today. We think they’re probably in the area of 10 to 20 kilotons today.” The yield of the nuclear device the North last tested in 2013 was estimated at about 7 kilotons. Two-stage H-bombs, consisting of a trigger and a secondary, have yields in the megaton area, Wit said. Wit also said the U.S. should accept the North’s demand for peace treaty negotiations. Pyongyang has stepped up the demand in recent months as the six-party nuclear talks have long remained stalled. The U.S. has flatly rejected the idea as a nonstarter as long as the North has nuclear ambitions. U.S. officials have stressed that should first focus on negotiations to end its nuclear program. “Everyone thinks it’s not serious,” Wit said of the North’s demand. “What I would say is let’s find out if they’re serious. Let’s engage them on it. Let’s say to them, ‘Hey sure, peace treaty talks, happy to do it, but you have to address our issues too, denuclearization.’”

The expert said that one of the reasons for the North’s development of nuclear weapons was because the country feels threatened, and one of the ways to address the threat is to formally end the 1950-53 Korean War with a peace treaty. http://www.koreatimesus.com/n-korea-could-deploy-h-bomb-around-2020-38-north/ Return to Top

The ChosunIlbo – Seoul, South Korea U.S. Military Repeatedly Shipped Live Anthrax to Korea By Jun Hyun-suk December 18, 2015 The U.S. Forces Korea conducted 16 tests using live anthrax samples that were delivered to USFK bases here since 2009, a joint investigation by the two countries has discovered. The investigation also found that the U.S. military brought plague bacteria samples into Korea. Anthrax is a virus that destroys the immune cells when ingested, causing shock and even death. The transport of live samples is strictly prohibited. In late May, when the U.S. admitted that the live anthrax samples were "accidentally" delivered to a U.S. airbase in Osan south of Seoul, exposing over 20 lab workers there to the deadly biological weapon, it claimed that only one test had been conducted. But there have apparently been many more. Investigators claimed the samples were delivered, stored and handled according to international safety standards and that nobody was infected. Asked why they had lied, U.S. military officials said what they meant at the time was that it was the first time to conduct a test using anthrax samples at the Osan airbase. But other tests seem to have been conducted at USFK headquarters in Yongsan, right in the middle of Seoul. The USFK initiated what is known as the "JUPITR" program last year amid what it perceived as an increasing threat of a biological weapons attack by North Korea. The Joint United States Forces Korea Portal and Integrated Threat Recognition program, to give it its full name, aims to increase the USFK's capability of detecting chemical and biological weapons attacks. It claims the test and training for new JUPITR equipment were first conducted in Osan. The revelation in May brought a storm of criticism from the Korean public, and the Korean military was completely oblivious to the tests until the Pentagon claimed an a army facility in Utah "inadvertently" sent the live strain to nine U.S. states as well as Korea. The lab workers at the airbase kept the lethal bacteria for days without taking precautions. There is widespread skepticism about the joint investigation here since it was based only on materials provided by the U.S. military. Korean investigators were granted just one day’s access to the lab in Osan, 72 days after the test. To address this problem, Seoul and Washington agreed Thursday to establish new set rules for U.S. shipments of biological samples to Korea. The USFK is now required to report the type, quantity and purpose of any samples as well as the identities of senders and recipients. Both sides will Issue No. 1196, 18 December 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama conduct a joint analysis on the samples if necessary in which the Korea Customs Service also takes part. The new regulations are legally binding, according to military officials. But inactive samples do not have to be reported, making it doubtful what force it carries. The USFK claims it incinerated the entire anthrax sample that was brought into Korea in May but plans to bring in more samples for further testing. The Pentagon is also conducting chemical and biological weapons response drills in Germany, Japan, Australia and other allied nations with American troop presence. http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2015/12/18/2015121800940.html Return to Top

TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia Strategic Offensive, Defensive Forces to be Russian Army Priorities in 2016 Another priority will be boosting the combat potential of the main attack units and the command information system of the strategic deterrence forces December 14, 2015 MOSCOW, December 14. /TASS/. Next year’s priorities for the Russian army will be maintaining the strategic offensive and strategic defensive forces to deter aggression against Russia and its allies, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General Valery Gerasimov said on Monday. "The main directions of the further building and development of the Armed Forces will be maintaining the status of the strategic offensive and strategic defensive forces at a level ensuring guaranteed fulfilment of the tasks of deterring aggression against the Russian Federation and its allies," Gerasimov said at a briefing for foreign military attaches accredited in Russia. Another priority will be boosting the combat potential of the main attack units and the command information system of the strategic deterrence forces with a view to inflict guaranteed damage on the enemy. In addition, according to the General Staff chief, the country’s aerospace forces will be upgraded for combating modern and prospective enemy’s aerospace attack weapons, and combat power of the joint force groupings in military districts will be boosted. Gerasimov said that the Defense Ministry’s system of research organizations will also be improved. In addition, it is planned to develop relations with the allied countries, including within the framework of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and Shanghai Cooperation organisation (SCO). http://tass.ru/en/defense/843845 Return to Top

Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency Russia to Finalize Delivery of S-300 Air Defense Systems to Iran in 2016 Russia will continue deliveries of S-300 air defense systems to Iran through 2016. 14 December 2015 MOSCOW (Sputnik) — Russia will continue deliveries of S-300 air defense systems to Iran through 2016, Vladimir Kozhin, Russian presidential aide on military-technical cooperation said Monday. "Iran is fulfilling its obligations on advanced payments, while we are fulfilling our obligations on timely deliveries," Kozhin said. The official added that the deliveries would take time and will most likely continue through 2016. In 2007, Moscow signed a deal with Tehran to deliver five S-300 missile systems, but in 2010 Russia suspended the contract, due to a UN Security Council resolution that placed an arms embargo on Tehran. In April 2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin lifted the S-300 delivery ban, after the P5+1 group, comprising the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, France, China and Germany, signed an agreement with Tehran to remove economic sanctions in exchange for the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program. http://sputniknews.com/military/20151214/1031734158/defense-russia-supplies-iran.html Return to Top

International Business (IB) Times – London, U.K. Rolls-Royce Crisis: Government may Nationalise Company's Nuclear Submarine Business By Jigmey Bhutia December 14, 2015 The nuclear submarine business of Rolls-Royce could be nationalised if the financial crisis at the company deepens after five profit warnings in the past 20 months. The government is also considering options of merging some or all parts of Rolls-Royce with BAE Systems — UK's largest independent aerospace and defence company. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) prepared the emergency plans in October and has a range of options, which the government could avail to protect its interests in the 100-year-old company, in the event of a hostile takeover bid by foreign investors. People familiar with the matter told Financial Times that "officials are concerned that Rolls-Royce's management has no substantial experience of defending against hostile takeovers". The MoD has suggested acquiring a stake in the Derby-headquartered firm, which could be costly for the government as 25% shares would be needed to bring any operational changes. Although the merger with BAE systems is under consideration, the government's reliability on the aerospace and defence company would only increase. Further, the MoD has suggested bringing in state-owned funds so that Rolls-Royce chief executive Warren East could get more time to implement his overhaul plan.

Tasnim News Agency – Tehran, Iran Iran to Check Possible Breach of JCPOA in US Visa Waiver Bill: Diplomat December, 13, 2015 TEHRAN (Tasnim) – A senior Iranian foreign ministry official said Tehran would take “action” against Washington if a new bill passed by the US House of Representatives tightening visa-free travel to the US is proved to have breached the July comprehensive nuclear deal between Iran and world powers. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Abbas Araqchi said Iran is negotiating with the Group 5+1 (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany) and with the European Union’s foreign policy coordinator on the recent legislation passed by the US House of Representatives. According to the bill, which was passed by 407 to 19 on Tuesday, visitors from the 38 “visa waiver” countries will need to obtain a visa to travel to the US if they have been to Syria, Iraq, Iran or Sudan in the past five years. Araqchi said the bill has “diverse legal aspects” and Iran is examining them. “If it is proved to be in breach of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), we will take action,” he said. Araqchi noted, though, that the bill has not been finalized yet. Citizens of 38 countries, many in the EU, can currently fly to the US without applying for a visa under America’s Visa Waiver Program. The new legislation initially said those eligible for the waiver program who had travelled to “terrorist hotspots” like Iraq and Syria where the ISIL terrorist group controls territory would need to obtain a US visa. But the final version included Iran and Sudan to the list of countries. The bill HR158 means citizens of many EU countries and the rest of the 38 states participating in the program who travel to Iran for pleasure or business will have to obtain a visa should they ever want to enter the US. Issue No. 1196, 18 December 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

The decision comes before implementation of the JCPOA. The final nuclear deal, known as a big confidence-building step in relations between Iran and the West, is going to terminate all nuclear-related sanctions against Tehran after coming into force. http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2015/12/13/941528/iran-to-check-possible-breach-of- jcpoa-in-us-visa-waiver-bill-diplomat Return to Top

Mehr News Agency – Tehran, Iran Board of Governors Adopts ‘Historic’ Resolution on Iran’s PMD Tuesday, 15 December 2015 TEHRAN, Dec. 15 (MNA) – The IAEA Board of Governors has adopted a historic resolution on Iran’s PMD with a general consensus, effectively closing the Possible Military Dimension case of Iran’s nuclear program . On Tuesday, the Board of Governors discussed in a long session resolution proposed by the 5+1 presented to the Board on December 7. The emergency meeting of the Board of Governors in Vienna considered Final Assessment on Past and Present Outstanding Issues Regarding Iran’s Nuclear Programme and adopted a resolution .According to JCPOA, Iran’s and 5+1 commitments which includes mainly removal of sanctions on Iran’s economy will take effect with closure of the technical case in the Board of Governors. http://en.mehrnews.com/news/112855/Board-of-Governors-adopts-historic-resolution-on-Iran- s-PMD Return to Top

FARS News Agency – Tehran, Iran Tuesday, December 15, 2015 Official: Iran Has Inside Men in Enemy Spy Agencies TEHRAN (FNA) - A senior Iranian official revealed that the country's intelligence agents have found a way into the spy agencies of those countries that have taken a hard line on the Islamic Republic. "We have infiltrated the enemy's spy agencies," Chief of the Supreme Leader's Office for Ideological and Political Affairs Hojjatoleslam Gholamreza Safayee said in Tehran on Tuesday. Safayee did not disclose any further details, citing the secret nature of the operation. Yet, he said that the capture of the executed ringleader of Jundollah terrorist group four years ago was the result of the same inside job in the secret services of the enemies. In relevant remarks in August, Iranian Intelligence Minister Seyed Mahmoud Alavi warned that the western, Israeli and certain regional countries' spy agencies had hatched plots to create insecurity in Iran.

Issue No. 1196, 18 December 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama "The intelligence services of the US, Israel, Mossad, MI6 and certain regional states are making attempts to challenge the Islamic Republic's security and it is hard for them to see that the sound of blasts is heard in any corner of the world but not in the Islamic Republic and to see that it is a secure island," Alavi said in an interview with the state TV. He also referred to the attempts made by terrorist groups, including the Takfiri terrorists, to harm the Islamic Republic's security, and said fortunately the Iranian security forces' intelligence superiority and efforts thwarted all their plots. Also, in March, top Military Aide to the Iranian Supreme Leader Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi said agents of some 17 foreign spy agencies have sought to foment dissent and unrest in Iran's oil- rich Southwestern province of Khuzestan. General Rahim Safavi said that "17 regional and trans-regional intelligence services affiliated to the Arab and western states" are running operations "in support of ethnic separatist groups to sow discord among the local people" in Khuzestan. He said "the Arab and European secret services are supporting separatist groups with financial and political backups" to stir unrest through fomenting sectarian strife in the bordering province. In relevant remarks in January, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei underlined that the enemy’s intelligence agencies were behind the plots hatched against Muslims. "The hands that sow discord among Shiites and Sunnis are linked to the spy services of the enemies of Islam,” said the Supreme Leader in a meeting with a group of people and the delegates who participated in the Islamic Unity Conference Tehran. Ayatollah Khamenei reiterated that the Western-style teachings alleged to be Islamic were in fact against Islam. “The (so-called) Shiism linked to the UK’s MI6 is not real Shiite Islam, nor is the (so-called) Sunnism, but they are both are against Islam,” the Supreme Leader said. Ayatollah Khamenei, meantime, called on the Muslim nations to close ranks and foster their unity. The Supreme Leader noted that certain Middle East states which were pursuing a hostile approach vis-à-vis Iran had set foot in the wrong path. "Some regional countries have based their foreign policies on observing animosity against Iran, but that is a big mistake and contradictory to the rule of sound mind and rationalism," Ayatollah Khamenei said, adding, "Establishment of friendly relations with Muslim and neighboring countries is the basis of the Iranian foreign policy." http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13940924001281 Return to Top

The Jerusalem Post – Jerusalem, Israel UN Body Closes File on Iran's Past Nuclear Weapons Work; Israel Says Decision 'Political' Within hours of the IAEA vote, UN officials warned that Iran may have violated a separate set of international laws by conducting yet more ballistic missile tests By MICHAEL WILNER Tuesday, 15 December 2015 Issue No. 1196, 18 December 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

WASHINGTON – The UN International Atomic Energy Agency voted on Tuesday to close its investigation into Iran’s past military nuclear work, ending a decade-long quest for answers as to the true nature of Tehran’s controversial nuclear program. The decision by the 35-nation board of governors allows the nuclear watchdog “to turn its focus now to the full implementation and verification of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which prohibits the resumption of such nuclear weapons-related activities and provides comprehensive tools for deterring and detecting any renewed nuclear weapons work,” US Secretary of State John Kerry said in a statement welcoming the vote. The JCPOA – the comprehensive nuclear accord reached by Iran and world powers last summer – is intended to cap Iran’s nuclear work and allow for strict international monitoring in exchange for sanctions relief. Alongside the deal, the IAEA and Iran agreed on a road map toward the conclusion of its investigation – a prerequisite for implementation of the deal itself. That road map granted the IAEA increased access to key materials and facilities in Iran throughout the fall, and led to a December 2 agency report that found Tehran had conducted activities consistent with weaponization work over the course of several years. Much of that work ended upon the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, the IAEA director-general assessed. With that report, the IAEA board found it acceptable to conclude the investigation. “Closing the PMD [possible military dimensions] agenda item will in no way preclude the IAEA from investigating if there is reason to believe Iran is pursuing any covert nuclear activities in the future, as it had in the past,” Kerry asserted. “In fact, the JCPOA – by providing for implementation of the additional protocol as well as other enhanced transparency – puts the IAEA in a far better position to pursue any future concerns that may arise.” Israel is not convinced. Israel’s Foreign Ministry responded to the IAEA report by saying that it “clearly indicates once again that Iran has conducted a coordinated effort to develop a nuclear device, including activities taking place after 2003. For over a decade, Iran has been non- cooperative and deceptive.” According to a statement issued by the ministry, “Serious doubts and outstanding issues regarding Iran’s program still remain.” Iran, the statement read, “is still required to cooperate fully and in a satisfying manner” with the IAEA “to resolve all outstanding issues and verify the peaceful nature of Iran’s program.” Yuval Steinitz, national infrastructure, energy and water minister, called the decision “political,” resulting from pressure from powers that brokered the JCPOA . “The decision made today was political and not practical,” he said, “and for this reason it sends a wrong message to the Iranians that the international community is willing to look the other way.” The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which aggressively lobbied against the deal, also condemned the vote as a “deplorable” development. “The IAEA is closing this file even after discovering further suspicious evidence and experiencing additional Iranian obstinacy,” the group said in a statement. “The IAEA could have recommended

TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia Iran to Ship 8.5 Tonnes of Uranium Materials to Russia Before Yearend — Diplomat Implementation Day of the joint comprehensive action plan for the Iran’s nuclear program may occur at the latest of the first quarter of 2016 and probably in January December 15, 2015 MOSCOW, December 15. /TASS/. Transportation of more than 8.5 tonnes of Iranian uranium to Russia is planned to be completed by the end of the year, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said on Tuesday. "The prospect of implementing the Joint Plan of Action looks positive in general. Until the end of the year, we will most likely complete transporting low-enriched uranium from Iran to Russia - more than 8.5 tonnes," Ryabkov, who served as Russia’s representative at the talks on the Iranian nuclear program, said.

The diplomat noted no political difficulties are expected when implementing the plan of action on Iran. According to the official, Implementation Day of the joint comprehensive action plan for the Iran’s nuclear program may occur at the latest of the first quarter of 2016 and probably in January. "I believe the implementation day [of the joint comprehensive action plan for the Iran’s nuclear program - TASS] may take place if not in January, then definitely in the first quarter of 2016," the official said. http://tass.ru/en/politics/844036 Return to Top

Tasnim News Agency – Tehran, Iran Kerry Welcomes IAEA Decision to Close Iran’s PMD Case December, 16, 2015 TEHRAN (Tasnim) - Secretary of State John Kerry on Tuesday welcomed the UN nuclear watchdog's decision to close its investigation into the so-called possible military dimensions in Iran’s nuclear program. The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Board of Governors unanimously approved a draft resolution which will close a case on the PMD. The resolution, proposed earlier by the Group 5+1 (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany), was put to the vote in a session of the UN watchdog’s Board of Governors on Tuesday in Vienna and got approved with the unanimous vote of the member states. In a written statement released in Moscow, where he is holding talks with top Russian officials on the Syrian civil war, Kerry also said the decision by the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) board would allow it to focus on the implementation of a July 14 deal under which Iran agreed to curb its nuclear program in return for sanctions relief, Reuters reported. "Closing the (Possible Military Dimensions) agenda item will in no way preclude the IAEA from investigating if there is reason to believe Iran is pursuing any covert nuclear activities in the future, as it had in the past," Kerry said, saying the July 14 deal, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), improved the agency's ability to monitor Iran. "Today’s resolution makes clear that the IAEA’s Board of Governors will be watching closely to verify that Iran fully implements its commitments under the JCPOA," he said. "We will remain intensely focused going forward on the full implementation of the JCPOA in order to ensure the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program." http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2015/12/16/944140/kerry-welcomes-iaea-decision-to- close-iran-s-pmd-case Return to Top

Issue No. 1196, 18 December 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Press TV – Tehran, Iran Iran Defense Minister Says Emad Missile 'Conventional' Wednesday, December 16, 2015 Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan says the recently test-fired precision- guided long-range Emad missile is a conventional armament. “We consider defense as our inalienable and recognized right and will continue to design, manufacture and put into operation any necessary conventional weapons and equipment in order to defend the country,” Dehqan said on Wednesday. Dehqan's remarks came a day after a panel of UN experts said in a confidential report that Iran’s firing of the long-range ballistic missile in October violated a UN Security Council resolution, alleging that the missile is capable of delivering nuclear weapons. “On the basis of its analysis and findings the Panel concludes that Emad launch is a violation by Iran of paragraph 9 of Security Council resolution 1929,” the panel said. But Dehqan said, "Our aim of carrying out this test was that we wanted to tell the world that the Islamic Republic of Iran acts based on its national interests and no power anywhere in the world can decide for our nation and country and [Iran] will not accept any restriction on this issue.” Iran successfully test-fired the surface-to-surface missile, which has been completely designed and manufactured by experts of Iran’s Aerospace Industries Organization affiliated with the Iranian Ministry of Defense, on October 11. The Iranian defense minister said that despite certain restrictions stipulated in the UN Security Council Resolution 2231 under the terms of a July nuclear agreement between Iran and six world powers Tehran will keep boosting its defense capabilities. Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council – the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia – plus Germany finalized the text of the agreement dubbed the JCPOA in the Austrian capital Vienna on July 14. On July 20, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2231, which bars Iran from developing missiles "designed to carry nuclear warheads." The Iranian defense chief said that the JPCOA has not banned Iran from boosting its defense capabilities. On October 17, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Seyyed Abbas Araqchi said that “none of Iran’s missiles, including ballistic ones, have been designed to carry a nuclear warhead, and thus their production and test are not contrary to [UN Security Council] Resolution 2231.” The Islamic Republic has repeatedly said that its military might poses no threat to other countries, reiterating that its defense doctrine is merely based on deterrence. http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2015/12/16/441995/Iran-Dehqan-Emad-UN Return to Top

FARS News Agency – Tehran, Iran Wednesday, December 16, 2015 DM: Iran to Continue Developing Missile Industries Irrespective of 2231 Resolution TEHRAN (FNA) - Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan underscored that the country will continue developing its missile and weapons industries even under the limitations envisaged in the UN 2231 resolution on the nuclear agreement with powers. Although certain sides claim that Iran's endorsement of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – on the nuclear agreement between Tehran and the six world powers clinched on July 14 – means that it has accepted certain restrictions in military areas, including its missiles, tests, operations and drilling activities, but "we have shown that despite certain limitations in the 2231 resolution, we continue research, development and production activities with all the (needed) tests and dimensions", Dehqan said in Tehran on Wednesday. The minister reiterated that since endorsement of the deal, Iran has not stopped or postponed or changed its military development agenda. "Since day one of the endorsement of the JCPOA, our different tests have not postponed even for a single day, hour or moment; rather we have not even felt any doubt about declaring them." In relevant remarks in August, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani underlined that Iran would not allow foreign countries to interfere in its defense and military affairs and will continue arms sales and purchase irrespective of the views of third party states. "We will purchase weapons from wherever we deem necessary and we are not waiting for anyone's permission; if we deem necessary we will sell our weapons and we will do this without paying attention to any resolution," President Rouhani said, addressing a ceremony held to commemorate the National Defense Industry Day in Iran. The Iranian president, meantime, lauded the achievements of the Iranian experts and engineers in the defense industry sector. "There is a high-speed movement towards self-sufficiency in the defense industry sector," President Rouhani said. He reiterated that Iran was pursuing a defensive and deterrence strategy, and said, "We pursue the policy of détente, convergence and confidence-building with the world, yet this policy does not run counter to our defensive power and industry." In recent years, Iran has made great achievements in its defense sector and attained self-sufficiency in producing essential military equipment and systems. On October 11 (4 months after the nuclear deal), Iran successfully test-fired the country's new precision-guided long-range ballistic missile that can be controlled until the moment of impact. Emad carries a conventional warhead. "This missile (Emad) which has been fully designed and made by Iranian Defense Ministry's scientists and experts is the country' first long-range missile with navigation and strike controlling capability; it is capable of hitting and destroying the targets with high-precision," General Dehqan told reporters after the successful test of Emad missile.

Tasnim News Agency – Tehran, Iran Iran Begins Removing Centrifuges Following IAEA Resolution: Salehi December, 16, 2015 TEHRAN (Tasnim) – The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) announced that the country has started to decommission some of operating centrifuges in its nuclear sites after a UN resolution closed a case on the so-called possible military dimensions (PMD) in Tehran’s nuclear program. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Ali Akbar Salehi pointed to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Tuesday resolution which closed the so-called PMD case, saying that the process to remove some operating centrifuges has begun following the adoption of the resolution. He also said that at this stage, it has been agreed that Iran give its stockpiles of enriched uranium to Russia and receive yellowcake in return. The resolution, proposed earlier by the Group 5+1 (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany), was put to the vote in a session of the UN watchdog’s Board of Governors on Tuesday in Vienna and got approved with the unanimous vote of the member states. It paved the way for actually closing Tehran’s nuclear dossier and starting the implementation phase of a lasting nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was finalized between Iran and the Group 5+1 in July. The IAEA has been given the role of verifying Iran’s commitments under the nuclear deal with six world powers.

As part of a Road-map signed between Iran and the IAEA on July 14, the agency had been required to finish its investigations about Iran’s nuclear activities and submit a report to the Board of Governors by December 15. A report released on December 2 by IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano on Iran’s nuclear program confirmed that the agency has no credible indications of suspicious work in Tehran’s nuclear activities. Under the JCPOA, limits will be put on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for, among other things, the removal of all economic and financial bans against Tehran. http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2015/12/16/945148/iran-begins-removing-centrifuges- following-iaea-resolution-salehi Return to Top

Times of Israel – Jerusalem, Israel Israel’s Newest Submarine Leaves Germany, Bound for Haifa The nuclear-capable INS Rahav will join the Navy’s four other Dolphin-class submarines in Israel next month By Judah Ari Gross December 17, 2015 The latest and one of the most expensive weapons in the IDF’s arsenal, the Dolphin-class submarine INS Rahav, set out for Haifa from the German port of Kiel on Thursday, according to a senior naval official. Ordered a decade ago, the Rahav will be Israel’s fifth Dolphin-class submarine, joining the INS Tanin, Tekuma, Leviathan and Dolphin at the Haifa naval base when it arrives next month. Rahav is the Hebrew name for the Greek god of the seas, Neptune, and has been used for other naval ships in the past, but it can also mean haughtiness or arrogance in modern Hebrew. The submarine, built by the German Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft shipbuilding company, was unveiled in April 2013, but required an additional year and a half of work to make it fully operational. The diesel-powered sub is over 220 feet (67 meters) long and weighs more than 2,000 tons. It will be staffed by a crew of approximately 50 sailors, the Israel Navy official said. The vessel’s air-independent propulsion system, which operates through a fuel cell instead of using louder, oxygen-dependent sources, allows the submarine to remain underwater without surfacing for potentially weeks at a time, the source said. “The fifth submarine greatly enhances the Israel Navy’s submarine flotilla and provides us with another state-of-the-art tool to aid and defend Israel against numerous threats,” the Navy official said, but refused to specify to what exact dangers he was referring. The INS Rahav cost Israel a reported $2 billion (NIS 8 billion), but the Navy officer was loath to discuss its price. “We’re not speaking about the cost,” he said.

Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) – Tehran, Iran 18 December 2015 US could Start Lifting Iran Sanctions in January under Nuclear Deal Tehran, Dec 18, IRNA - The United States appears poised to lift at least some sanctions against Iran – possibly as early as January, Associated Press reported. The US Secretary of State John Kerry said in a letter on Wednesday to the Senate foreign relations committee that Iran is fulfilling its obligations under the international agreement in what Kerry calls a “transparent” and “verifiable” way, and that “suspension of sanctions … is appropriate”. The committee’s top Democrat, Senator Ben Cardin, said at a hearing on Thursday that it appears that sanctions relief could start as early as January, not in the spring as initially anticipated. Cardin said that throughout the congressional review of the nuclear deal, witnesses for the Obama administration guessed that it would be spring until Iran could comply with the terms required for that relief to begin. The deal involving the United States, Iran and five other world powers would impose some limitations on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for removal of Iran's illegal sanctions.

“Now we understand it is likely that Iran will be in compliance and entitled to sanctions relief as early as January,” Cardin said at the hearing where administration officials were questioned about the deal. In Kerry’s letter to Congress, which the Associated Press obtained Thursday, he also stated that Iran had not engaged in any covert or other activities in its peaceful nuclear program. http://www.irna.ir/en/News/81883212/ Return to Top

Pakistan Tribune.com – Rawalpindi, Pakistan Pakistan Conducted Successful Test of the Shaheen 1-A Ballistic Missile Pakistan News Service 15 December, 2015 RAWALPINDI: Pakistan on Tuesday conducted a successful flight test of the Shaheen 1-A ballistic missile. The flight test was aimed at re-validating several design and technical parameters of the weapon system. The Shaheen 1-A is capable of delivering different types of warheads up to a range of 900 kilometers. Today’s launch, with the impact point in the Arabian Sea, was witnessed by senior officers from the Strategic Plans Division, strategic forces, scientists and engineers of strategic organisations. Strategic Plans Division Director General Lt Gen Mazhar Jamil congratulated the scientists and engineers for their dedication, professionalism and commitment towards yet another display of strengthening Pakistan’s defence. Shaheen 1-A with its sophisticated and advanced guidance system is a highly accurate missile system. Lt Gen Jamil reiterated that Pakistan’s strategic capabilities are based on ‘Credible Minimum Deterrence’ and desire for peaceful co-existence in the region. The successful test launch has been warmly appreciated by the President and Prime Minister of Pakistan who congratulated the scientists and engineers on achieving another outstanding milestone. Last week, Pakistan conducted a successful test launch of the medium-range Shaheen-III surface-to- surface ballistic missile. The missile is capable of carrying nuclear and conventional warheads to a range of 2,750 km. Earlier this year, a top adviser to its government, retired Lt Gen Khalid Kidwai had said Pakistan needs short-range “tactical” nuclear weapons to deter India, dismissing concerns it could increase the risk of a nuclear war.

The Indian Express – New Delhi, India Concerned about Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal, Missiles: US "We're concerned most by the pace and the scope of the Pakistan's missile program, including its pursuit of nuclear systems," said Richard Olson. By Press Trust of India (PTI) December 17, 2015 Washington -- Voicing concern over Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programmes, the US has asked it to restrain them and avoid any developments that might lead to increased risk to nuclear safety and strategic stability. “I wanted to say that we do share your concerns particularly about the development of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. We’re concerned most by the pace and the scope of the Pakistan’s missile program, including its pursuit of nuclear systems,” Special US Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Olson told lawmakers during a hearing on Pakistan convened by House Foreign Affairs Committee. “We are concerned that a conventional conflict in Southwest Asia could escalate to include nuclear use as well as the increase security challenges that accompany growing stockpiles. We have had a very active dialogue at the highest levels with the Pakistanis in which we have made clear the nature of our very specific concerns,” Olson said yesterday in response to a question from Congressman Brian Higgins. He said the US has asked Pakistan to restrain its nuclear and missile programmes. “As with all nuclear-capable states, we have urged Pakistan to restrain its nuclear weapons and missile development and stressed the importance of avoiding any developments that might invite increased risk to nuclear safety, security, or strategic stability,” he said. “We are not negotiating a 123 agreement with Pakistan,” he said. His remarks came after US lawmakers asked the American government to be tough on Islamabad as it does not seem to be sincere in improving ties with India and has accelerated the pace of arsenals’ production. Higgins during the hearing alleged that Pakistan is not sincere in improving its relationship with India. “Pakistan is involved in an arms race against what it believes is its existential threat with India. According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Pakistan could have 350 nuclear warheads in the next decade, becoming the world’s third biggest nuclear power, outpacing India, France, China, and the UK,” he said. “There is no positive sign of any improved relations with India because Pakistan justifies its nuclear proliferation as a deterrent against aggression from the outside. So the US has to get tougher with Pakistan. We have to call them out on this double game they have been playing, not this year, not last year, not five years but for the past 15 years,” Higgins said.

“Pakistan, let’s be truthful about this, plays a double game. They’re are military partner, but they’re the protector and the patron of our enemies. And this has been going on for 15 years. Since 2002, US aid to Pakistan, economic and military, has averaged about USD 2 billion a year. Pakistan’s annual defence budget is only about USD 5 billion a year. He said if Pakistan falls apart or if Islamic extremists take over, it’s a nightmare scenario for the US. “It’s a big country, about 180 million people, it has a lot of Islamic extremists, and it has nuclear weapons. And to have Islamic extremists with nuclear weapons is a primary goal of al-Qaeda and it would be major victory for them and the outgrowth of al-Qaeda, the Islamic state and a major defeat for us, the US,” Higgins added. http://indianexpress.com/article/world/world-news/concerned-about-pakistans-nuclear-arsenal- missiles-us/ Return to Top

TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia IS Militants Seized Chemical weapons in Libya, Says Cousin of Late Libyan Leader Ahmed Gaddaf al-Dam said "huge amounts" of sarin were being moved from desert areas in the south to the north of the country and to the suburbs of the Libyan capital December 17, 2015 CAIRO, December 17./TASS/. Extremists including Islamic State militants of the terror group banned in Russia have seized chemical weapons in southern Libya, a close aide and cousin of late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi told pan-Arabic daily Asharq Al-Awsat on Thursday. Ahmed Gaddaf al-Dam said "huge amounts" of sarin were being moved from desert areas in the south to the north of the country and to the suburbs of the Libyan capital, Tripoli. Al-Dam said terrorists already used sarin in Libya last year, but "it was neglected by the world community". The newspaper's account mirrors chaos reigning nationwide. Two governments run administrations, each city has its own authorities and every settlement is subject only to tribal chiefs. http://tass.ru/en/world/845033 Return to Top

War on the Rocks.com OPINION/Commentary The Truth about 3-D Printing and Nuclear Proliferation By Amy Nelson December 14, 2015 A recent article on additive manufacturing sounded the alarm over the use of this technology for the production of a nuclear weapon. While the authors, Matthew Kroenig and Tristan Volpe, are correct to assert that additive manufacturing is changing proliferation, today’s clear and present Issue No. 1196, 18 December 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama danger comes from conventional weapons, not just nuclear warheads. To sound an alarm over the latter and signal a call to action on these grounds risks obscuring the scope of this threat and underemphasizing some key issues. First, it is currently easier to produce a conventional weapon than a nuclear weapon using additive manufacturing technology. Second, significant challenges remain in using additive manufacturing to produce components for nuclear weapons. Third, and perhaps most significantly, a focus exclusively on nuclear proliferation by way of additive manufacturing misses the broader problem. As sensitive information and materials become increasingly digital, they elude our traditional tools for controlling who accesses and uses them. This is a challenge we face for weapon of all kinds, including conventional and cyber — it is not a uniquely nuclear problem. Effective solutions will require a comprehensive approach. 3-D Printed Conventional Weapons Pose the Greatest Threat Additive manufacturing is indeed a “game changer.” This flexible and cost-effective fabrication method has a number of uses, ranging from the rapid production of components for jet engines to the rendering of unique and fully functional replacement human heart valves. Additive manufacturing is a particularly useful tool for producing highly intricate objects that do not require large production runs. It’s a deceptively old technology dating back to the 1980s, when it began to be used for rapid prototyping. Today, use of the 3-D printers — the hardware for the additive manufacturing process — is increasingly common among traditional manufacturers, as well as in public libraries, art departments, and even in the food industry. Without a doubt, weapons proliferation is an unintended consequence and a decidedly negative byproduct of this technology. The article’s authors do a service in highlighting this for the nuclear nonproliferation community. Yet while the widespread availability of 3-D printers and the ease with which computer aided design (CAD) files can be transferred may ultimately affect nuclear proliferation, they are affecting conventional weapons right now. Around the world, do-it-yourself gun enthusiasts are already using CAD files to quickly and cheaply print fully functional firearms at home. The U.S. Department of State has been grappling with additive manufacturing’s potential for proliferation for over two years now. In 2013, the State Department’s Directorate of Defense Trade Controls sent a cease and desist letter to a nonprofit corporation in Texas called Defense Distributed to request the removal of CAD files for printing handguns from its server. These files were free and downloadable the world over. Indeed, by the time those particular files were taken down, they had been downloaded over 100,000 times. The Directorate of Defense Trade Controls requested that the site be taken down while it reviewed the issue on the grounds that posting these files to the Internet could constitute an unauthorized export of defense technologies controlled by the International Traffic in Arms Regulations. The State Department has since determined that CAD files containing instructions to print sensitive military equipment, including firearms, are indeed controlled under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations, but not before Defense Distributed sued the Secretary of State and others for violations of First, Second and Fifth Amendment rights. The court case is ongoing. 3-D Printed Nuclear Weapons are not Imminent To temper alarm, it’s worth emphasizing that there are a number of controls already in place that can counter nuclear proliferation via additive manufacturing or traditional means, and that significant obstacles exist for using 3-D printing to obtain a nuclear weapon. First, the Nuclear Suppliers Group currently places controls on the export of maraging steel, one of the only materials that can be used for the components of a uranium-enriching centrifuge. As the Issue No. 1196, 18 December 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

article mentions, the flow forming and axis-milling machines used in the traditional manufacturing process of maraging steel are also already controlled, as are the lasers that could be used to enrich uranium. Also, the maraging steel powder that could be used in the additive manufacturing version of centrifuge components is likewise already controlled as a function of being made of maraging steel. There’s nothing about the powder version that makes it more accessible through export channels than traditionally manufactured maraging steel. Second, using 3-D printing to obtain a nuclear weapon is not a quick and easy process. Even if someone has a 3-D printer that can make centrifuge components, products made through additive manufacturing still require a great deal of finishing to become functional. That process requires expertise, and the methods for finishing are still in development. Maraging steel requires a great deal of post-processing, and it has been challenging to manufacture a 3-D printed material that has identical properties to its traditionally manufactured counterpart. This isn’t to say that we shouldn’t get out in front of the problem now, but it just isn’t as much a cause for alarm today as is the use of additive manufacturing to make conventional weapons. A Symptom of the Bigger Problem While existing regimes can be used to control a number of items potentially useful to the printing of lethal weapons, some controls over other items integral to the process will likely remain elusive. The 3-D printing proliferation concern exemplifies the threat from inevitable innovation combined with the digitization of the weapons we already possess. This is the fundamental challenge, and we face it on all fronts. Our risks increase as sensitive technologies and weapons become digital — and they are all becoming digital in some way. The combination of innovation and digitization causes our existing controls and regimes to fail. Even when these regulations technically or legally apply to the technologies at hand, digitization makes it easier to bypass the rules. For example: While one might try to place export controls on CAD files with instructions to print the cylindrical geometries found in centrifuge rotors, what is to prevent a nefarious actor from posting such a CAD file to the Internet? This problem is no different for conventional weapons or malware — there’s nothing unique in this regard about CAD files with instructions for making centrifuges. Though this is a concern across the U.S. government — initiatives from the Departments of Defense and Commerce have identified the threat — implementation of countermeasures remains slow. What’s Been Done and How to Proceed The issue of 3-D printing weapons has received widespread attention in articles that highlight the complexities associated with the Defense Distributed case, intellectual property rights, and the constitutionality of the control of technology in the public domain. The risks associated with additive manufacturing are also well known at the level of international regimes, such as the Wassenaar Arrangement, the Nuclear Suppliers Group, and the Missile Technology Control Regime, all of which have working groups made up of technical experts who continually update the lists of controlled technologies. These regimes haven’t yet been successful at managing the threat at this level because many of these technologies are dual-use and/or in development, not to mention the fact that the regimes are more accustomed to controlling objects than information. As such, it’s a steep hill to climb. Voices from industry also caution that further regulation could hinder innovation and competiveness. Maintaining the U.S. technological edge in this area has been a priority for the current administration. Meanwhile, scholars have warned that the consequences of imposing regulations on these technologies could ultimately be harmful for U.S. security interests.

Issue No. 1196, 18 December 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Clear next steps in curbing the nuclear proliferation threat via additive manufacturing lay not in creating new multilateral frameworks, but in determining concrete requirements for controls based on the technical details of the relevant technologies. As this excellent article by Dr. Grant Christopher of Kings College points out, there is a clear logic to what technologies should next be addressed. Stakeholders should pursue controls over powder bed fusion printers, which can produce and use maraging steel. These powder bed fusion printers construct metal objects by melting and fusing powdered metals using either Selective Laser Sintering or Selective Laser Melting. Yet conversations about controlling these types of printers shouldn’t occur independently of conversations about controlling 3-D printers that are so large they can print an entire airplane wing. It’s critical that the dialogue not become stovepiped in this way. Christopher also points out that one next step includes placing controls on printers and materials that could be used to 3-D print components critical to ballistic missile technology. Companies like Raytheon are already using additive manufacturing to create the components of a guided weapon, which can serve as a delivery system for a nuclear warhead. Additive manufacturing of these components can allow would-be proliferators to bypass export controls. All of these concerns emphasize the ongoing challenge of controlling sensitive information increasingly available in digital format. Needless to say, this task is increasingly difficult. While the U.S. government may have been a little late to the game, the issue is receiving attention at the highest levels across the interagency. No easy answers to this challenge exist. It certainly aids the cause to draw attention to the issue. But the rallying cry to control this technology due to the threat of nuclear proliferation risks stovepiping funding and efforts in this realm, as well as alienating the export control community already hard at work on these issues. Because this is a problem that spans the threat spectrum, stakeholders will be able to address it most efficiently and effectively if they approach it in a comprehensive fashion. Amy Nelson is a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. She formerly worked as a research fellow at SIPRI North America, where she worked on the Future of Arms Control Project to evaluate the best use of arms control and best practices, and as a policy analyst at the U.S. Department of State, where she evaluated the impact of emerging technologies on existing export regulations and assesses the compatibility of these regulations with treaty and alliance goals. http://warontherocks.com/2015/12/the-truth-about-3-d-printing-and-nuclear-proliferation/ Return to Top

Forbes.com – New York, NY OPINION/Contributor Obama Backs Biggest Nuclear Arms Buildup Since Cold War By Loren Thompson December 15, 2015 National security is shaping up to be the top issue in next year’s presidential election. The media are awash in worries about terrorism and cyber attacks, with President Obama generally getting low marks for his handling of threats. Republican presidential candidates say he has no coherent strategy for dealing with the danger posed by radical jihadists, and complain that he has deprived the military of the funding needed to protect America.

However, there is one facet of national security — arguably the most important one — where President Obama is turning out to be a real hardliner. That area is nuclear weapons. Obama has backed investment in new nuclear delivery systems, upgraded warheads, resilient command networks, and industrial sites for fabricating nuclear hardware that, when added to the expense of maintaining the existing arsenal, will cost $348 billion between 2015 and 2024. At least, that’s what the Congressional Budget Office estimated earlier this year. If the Obama plan continues to be funded by his successors, it will be the biggest U.S. buildup of nuclear arms since Ronald Reagan left the White House. This isn’t what most observers expected from Obama. A longtime supporter of nuclear disarmament, he gave a speech shortly after being inaugurated in 2009 highlighting “America’s commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.” He backed up that commitment with concrete actions. When his administration completed the third post-Cold War review of America’s nuclear posture in April of 2010, it called for “a multilateral effort to limit, reduce, and eventually eliminate all nuclear weapons worldwide.” A nuclear arms pact signed with Russia the same year called for cutting the number of warheads in the strategic arsenal to a quarter of the level agreed to in 1991 — about 1,500. The New York Times reported early the following year the administration wanted to cut the warhead count yet again to 1,000. That doesn’t sound like much of an arsenal for a country that had over 30,000 nuclear warheads the year Obama began elementary school. Granted, there are several thousand additional warheads in storage or not counted by the 2010 pact, but the general trend in inventory levels has been down, down and down, and the Obama Administration began its time in office planning to stay on that vector. So what changed? What changed was that the White House ceased believing it could work with Russia at a time when much of the Cold War nuclear arsenal was reaching an advanced state of decay. With prospects for further arms reduction agreements rapidly receding, the administration decided it had to move forward with modernization of the entire nuclear enterprise. Although plans to sustain a nuclear “triad” of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, sea-based ballistic missiles, and long-range nuclear bombers had been endorsed by the 2010 posture review, the White House initially appeared ambivalent about spending the money needed to revitalize the nuclear arsenal. But any resistance to “recapitalizing” the arsenal disappeared after Russia began threatening Eastern Europe, and conducting nuclear exercises seemingly aimed at scaring the West. So now Barack Obama, the longtime proponent of nuclear disarmament, finds himself presiding over a vast reconstruction of the nation’s strategic force, not to mention the introduction of new aircraft and weapons for conducting tactical nuclear operations in places like Europe. The basic goal is to dissuade any enemy from nuclear aggression by fielding a resilient retaliatory force that can survive a surprise attack, and then destroy the assets that matter most to the aggressor. The strategy is called deterrence, and in the absence of active defenses capable of intercepting a nuclear attack, it is the main bulwark America has against a threat that could destroy the Republic in a single day. Here are the key elements of the Obama buildup. A new ballistic missile submarine. The U.S. Navy’s 14 Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines are the most survivable part of the nuclear triad, but the subs will begin retiring at the rate of one per year toward the end of the next decade. To have a replacement ready, the Obama Administration is pushing ahead with the Ohio Replacement Program which will commence construction of a new class of subs in 2021. There will be twelve such vessels, each carrying 16 ballistic missiles equipped with multiple warheads. General Dynamics GD +0.72% Electric Boat division, builder of Issue No. 1196, 18 December 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama the Ohio class, is leading development of the next-generation subs, and will likely perform most of the construction. A separate Navy program is extending the life of the Lockheed Martin LMT +1.38% D5 missiles carried on the Ohio class, and at least initially on its successor. Both the missiles and their improved warheads will be operational for another 30 years. A new strategic bomber. The airborne part of the nuclear triad currently consists of 76 aged B-52 bombers and 20 newer B-2s, both of which also perform non-nuclear missions. However, a senior Air Force officer told Congress earlier this year that the bombers “are becoming increasingly vulnerable to modern air defenses,” so last month the service awarded a contract to Northrop Grumman for development of a “Long Range Strike Bomber” that will provide 80-100 very stealthy successors beginning in 2025 (loser Boeing is protesting the award). Meanwhile, all of the nuclear missiles and gravity bombs carried on the bombers are being upgraded to extend their lives, improve their accuracy, and assure their safety. A new air-launched cruise missile is also planned, but the administration is taking no chances, pouring billions of dollars into enhancing the performance and connectivity of the existing fleet. A new intercontinental ballistic missile. The third leg of the nuclear triad consists of 450 Minuteman III missiles deployed in hardened silos at three bases in the western U.S. The Air Force is spending $7 billion to modernize the propulsion systems, guidance, warheads and other elements of the Minuteman force, but the force’s projected service life only extends to 2030. In 2014, the command responsible for managing the missiles conducted an analysis of alternatives for developing a next-generation “Ground Based Strategic Deterrent,” meaning a new ICBM. InsideDefense.com reports that the Air Force will begin operating the new missile in 2027. Missile silos and launch control centers, which have become quite decrepit, will be renovated for decades of additional service. A parallel effort is under way to upgrade the warheads carried on ICBMs, substituting more powerful weapons from the retired MX missile. An enhanced command, control & communications network. Credible deterrence requires a resilient command system that can ride out a surprise attack and then execute appropriate responses (there are numerous retaliatory options in nuclear war plans). The network of assets supporting this system includes sensors that can detect an attack, flying command posts, hardened underground operations centers, secure communications satellites, and a complex array of links between them. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that administration plans for modernizing the nuclear command and control system will cost $52 billion between 2015 and 2024, with the biggest outlays going to Boeing for flying command posts, Lockheed Martin for satellites, and Northrop Grumman for sensors and networks. Raytheon will also likely be a key player in nuclear-related sensors and networks. New tactical nuclear systems. Although the Obama nuclear posture has sought to minimize the role of nuclear weapons outside the area of strategic deterrence, the administration faces a practical problem in countering thousands of tactical nuclear systems that Russia has deployed in Europe. Under the doctrine of “extended deterrence,” the U.S. must have credible retaliatory options for dealing with the regional threat that these weapons pose in order to reassure its overseas allies. The administration therefore plans to equip at least some Lockheed Martin F-35 fighters with a capability to deliver tactical nuclear weapons, and is upgrading the inventory of nuclear munitions suitable for conducting such operations. A revitalized nuclear weapons industrial base. Much of the responsibility for supporting the U.S. nuclear posture resides not in the Department of Defense, but in the Department of Energy. DoE is expected to spend $121 billion between 2015 and 2024 on its nuclear-weapons functions, over a third of the $348 billion spent on the nuclear enterprise during that period. A big chunk of that money will go to the laboratories and industrial facilities involved in researching,

refurbishing, modifying or demilitarizing nuclear devices. Although the U.S. no longer builds new nuclear warheads, it is constantly reclaiming nuclear material from old devices and enhancing the features of warheads already in the stockpile. That requires extensive investment in revitalizing the plant and equipment at facilities that often trace their origins to the dawn of the Cold War. Some might quibble with using the word “buildup” to characterize this sprawling effort, since the Obama Administration does not plan to exceed weapons levels specified in arms reduction agreements. However, the reality is that President Obama is backing efforts to upgrade and replace every nuclear delivery system in the U.S. arsenal, plus the warheads they carry, plus the command networks and industrial base that supports them. None of his recent predecessors undertook nuclear efforts this ambitious — the Arms Control Association says the life-cycle cost of the new submarine alone will be over $300 billion through 2080 — and whether the arsenal shrinks or grows will be left to his successors. So for all of the criticism about Mr. Obama being weak on defense, when it comes to the most fearsome weapons humanity has devised, he will be remembered as the president who kept America on top. (Disclosure: All of the companies mentioned here have contributed to my think tank at one time or another; some are consulting clients.) Loren Thompson focuses on the strategic, economic and business implications of defense spending as the Chief Operating Officer of the non-profit Lexington Institute and Chief Executive Officer of Source Associates. Prior to holding my present positions, I was Deputy Director of the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University and taught graduate-level courses in strategy, technology and media affairs at Georgetown. http://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2015/12/15/obama-backs-biggest-nuclear-arms- buildup-since-cold-war/ Return to Top

Defense News – Tysons Corner, VA OPINION/Commentary Commentary: Needed: A Revolution in US Military Education By James Stavridis and Harlan Ullman December 15, 2015 As US national security issues become more complicated, interrelated and less amenable to easy or simple solution, and as resources will be subjected to greater constraints, the nation can draw on a not-so-secret weapon to prepare our military for this dynamic new world. That weapon is education on which the Department of Defense spends many billions of dollars a year. But, while these individual institutions generally work well, they are still often oriented around 20th century practices and methods that do not always capture the demands of the 21st century. A revolution can change that. From non-commissioned officer and service academies, through command and staff and other technical institutions to senior war colleges, the Department of Defense is the largest bill payer in the world for education (let alone training). Despite hundreds of billions of dollars spent on the best

Issue No. 1196, 18 December 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama and most advanced weapons and combat systems in world, the advice of Robert Jones, arguably the greatest golfer ever to swing a club, applies. In golf, it is the 6 inches between the ears where the game is played. And it is this space that must be the strategic center of gravity for preparing service personnel to defend the nation. This is where the revolution must begin, in the minds of our greatest resource: our people. Several years ago, at the direction of Gordon England, twice secretary of the Navy and once deputy secretary of defense, a major study of naval education was conducted. That study could be the model for a broader evaluation of DoD education. Three areas for improvement became strikingly apparent. Virtually none of the naval institutions were integrated or even closely linked with each other, or worse, within the “joint” world. That meant that any synergies from transfers of knowledge and leverage• from joint research and academic curricula were being wasted. Despite the need for service “jointness,” this absence of educational interconnectivity is even more pronounced across the services. Education is still based on a 20th century vertical structure based on time in service and experience. Graduate school, command and staff, and then senior war college assignment depended on• seniority and not need. Hence, while a relatively junior officer serving in a joint assignment in the Middle East or Arabian Gulf where the more advanced education of a war college might be important, he or she would have to wait to become more senior before attending. ls and not fully aligned with the information and social media revolutions of the 21st. While textbooks are important, it is the Internet• Much of that that has education become was as or based more on dominant 20th century in education mode and learning. In today’s world, separating useful information and knowledge from the nearly infinite amount of often-useless material that exists on the Internet must be central to teaching and learning no matter the subject matter. For a revolution to take hold, the secretary of defense and Joint Chiefs must recognize the extraordinary potential education offers. A study based on England’s may be the most effective means of demonstrating this potential. And the private sector must be part of any evaluation in order to expand the intellectual horizon and incorporate the most effective new ideas and teaching methods. In that regard, we offer three ideas to frame this study. First, the aim of this revolution must be to enhance greater understanding of these issues through continuous pursuit of knowledge and learning at all points of service and not just during assignments to staff and war colleges. Second, without greater seniority of educational leaders, the bureaucracy will doom any effort. When we were in the Navy, the chief of education and training was a four star admiral. Today, the nation’s most senior educational institution, the National Defense University, is headed by a two- star. We believe that post should be held by a retired four star or the civilian equivalent. And the service war colleges should be led by officers of at least three star grade. Third, as the national security environment has expanded well beyond defense, the National Defense University should become the National Security University (NSU). This new NSU should have the principal role of enhancing strategic thinking and analysis at the most senior levels of government. Students and faculty must come from across the whole of government. And we believe

that aligning NSU with an equivalent civilian university or universities is needed to broaden intellectual perspectives. Whether or not Churchill said, “now that we are out of money, we need to think our way clear of danger,” we do. A revolution in education can and must harness this not-so-secret weapon and do so now. James Stavridis is dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and former Supreme Allied Commander at NATO; Harlan Ullman chairs the Killowen Group, which advises leaders of business and government on strategic matters. http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/commentary/2015/12/15/commentary-needed- revolution-us-military-education/77053404/ Return to Top

The National Interest – Washington, D.C. OPINION/The Buzz China's 2,500 Mile-Range 'Carrier-Killer' Missile: A Nuclear Threat? By Harry J. Kazianis December 18, 2015 When Americans ponder the phrase “national security” they likely think of only one thing these days: the Islamic State. And considering the headlines, who can blame them? However, news out of China concerning a new generation of “carrier-killer” missiles—now sporting a 2,500 mile range— should remind Washington’s national security leaders of the long-term challenges America faces in the Pacific. Countless ink has already been spilled when it comes to China’s first anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), the DF-21D, over the last six years or so. In September, Beijing unveiled a longer-range version of the weapon, the DF-26. While countless news articles marked the debut of the system, specific information on the new weapon was scarce. However, thanks to the sleuthing skills of U.S. Naval War College Professor Andrew Erickson, we now know a little more about the weapon—and its possible uses beyond the much discussed “killing” of carriers. But first, a recap of how both the DF-21D and DF-26 work: The missile is launched from a mobile truck-mounted launcher into the atmosphere, with over-the-horizon radar, satellite tracking and possibly unmanned aerial vehicles providing guidance. It also incorporates a maneuverable warhead (MaRV) to help find its target—and defeat an adversary's missile defenses. Such a device could be instrumental in striking a vessel in the open ocean or denying access to a potential opponent in transiting to a conflict zone (think Taiwan or in the East and South China Seas). So now that we know how the weapon works, the next set of questions are obvious: When would Beijing use it? What is the overall strategy for its use in a potential conflict? And what are its capabilities? This is where Andrew Erickson’s discovery comes in: he has uncovered the only in- depth article that gives at least some hard information concerning the weapon. While you can read the whole article here in Mandarin, written by Wang Changqin and Fang Guangming in China Youth

Issue No. 1196, 18 December 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Daily, here are five key points from the article worth knowing (the translation was also discovered by Dr. Erickson): Point #1 - The DF-26 has multiple uses—not just killing carriers. “In contrast with the DF-21D is the DF-26's distinct characteristic of being nuclear and conventional all in one; that is, the one missile body can carry a nuclear warhead [singular or plural not indicated] for a nuclear strike against the enemy, or it can carry a conventional warhead [singular or plural not indicated] for a conventional firepower attack against the enemy. That “change the warhead, not the missile” feature provides a rapid switch between nuclear and conventional.” Point #2 - It Could Help Increases the Size of China’s Nuclear Arsenal in a Crisis. “Given that China has only a limited number of nuclear weapons, and as a medium range ballistic missile, by changing to a nuclear warhead at the last minute it [the DF-26] can as needed form up a nuclear deterrent and nuclear counterattack capability linking long and short ranges and strategic and campaign roles.” Point #3 - Mobility matters. “Compared with silo launched and site launched ballistic missiles, another distinct characteristic of the DF-26 is that it can be launched on the move with no support. Land-based mobile launches in the past, whether with movement by rail or by road, all required a launch site prepared in advance. Although movement over a large area could be accomplished before or during a war, the destination of the move was always a prepared launch site. Because prepared launch sites are limited in number and easily exposed, destruction of a launch site could result in the bad situation of having missiles but not being able to launch them. Also, that sort of missile requires quite a lot of time to set up and get ready in a prepared launch site, which puts it at a great disadvantage against an encroaching enemy with strong mobility and a fast tempo of operation in its “combat chain. "But the DF-26 does not rely on a site for mobile launching. It can move fast, and it has no strict demands for where it is launched. So that is helpful to movement of missile forces all over and in concealment, and it is helpful to the rapid deployment, rapid launch, and rapid displacement of combat elements. That means a boost to the missile force's survivability and to its attack ability. Against time-sensitive targets such as surface ships in particular, it [the DF-26] can attack at the last minute as soon as information on a ship's movement is acquired, meaning the ship cannot get away.” Point #4 - Beijing wants to “use offense to assist defense” and is working towards “joint operations.” “With the development of anti-identification, anti-interception, and highly integrated technology, the mobility, the ability to penetrate defenses, and the precision of strategic, campaign, and tactical missiles have all improved. By way of technical upgrades and merging into integrated, joint operations networked information systems, the DF-26's overall tactical and technical performance has continually improved to where it can be considered a prized possession which “uses offense to assist defense, meets challenges.” Point #5 - Air-Sea Battle/JAM-GC is very much on China’s mind (maybe a reason they developed the DF-26?). “Although the United States has repackaged “Air-Sea Integrated Battle” as a “Joint Concept for Access and Maneuver in the Global Commons” in order to balance the competing interests of the services, weaken the “hot war” flavor, lower the risk of “clashes,” and seek extra credit for “morality,” the overall message shows that its original concept and plan, “based on hot war,” “split

the region,” and “disrupt stability,” is essentially unchanged. On the contrary, it has stepped up relevant preparations under the flag of “protecting regional security and peace” and “ensuring that the communal right of navigation is not changed.” For example, the Pentagon is making adjustments which will have 60% of its naval forces, including aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, cruisers, destroyers, and coastal warships deployed in the Asia-Pacific region, and bring together sea-based, air-based, and space-based forces as “joint strike task forces.” It is using political coercion, economic enticement, and diplomatic pressure to consolidate its existing military alliances, and it is using military aid and joint exercises as bribes to get certain countries to become quasi-members of a military alliance.” Want to know more? Read the whole thing. Harry Kazianis is the outgoing Executive Editor of The National Interest. Mr. Kazianis also serves as Senior Fellow (non-resident) for Defense Policy at the Center for the National Interest, Senior Fellow (non-resident) at the China Policy Institute as well as a Fellow for National Security Affairs at The Potomac Foundation. He previously served as Editor of The Diplomat and as a WSD Handa Fellow at Pacific Forum: CSIS. All views are his own. http://www.nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/chinas-2500-mile-range-carrier-killer-missile- nuclear-threat-14669?page=show Return to Top

ABOUT THE USAF CUWS The USAF Counterproliferation Center was established in 1998 at the direction of the Chief of Staff of the Air Force. Located at Maxwell AFB, this Center capitalizes on the resident expertise of Air University, while extending its reach far beyond - and influences a wide audience of leaders and policy makers. A memorandum of agreement between the Air Staff Director for Nuclear and Counterproliferation (then AF/XON), now AF/A5XP) and Air War College Commandant established the initial manpower and responsibilities of the Center. This included integrating counterproliferation awareness into the curriculum and ongoing research at the Air University; establishing an information repository to promote research on counterproliferation and nonproliferation issues; and directing research on the various topics associated with counterproliferation and nonproliferation . The Secretary of Defense's Task Force on Nuclear Weapons Management released a report in 2008 that recommended "Air Force personnel connected to the nuclear mission be required to take a professional military education (PME) course on national, defense, and Air Force concepts for deterrence and defense." As a result, the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center, in coordination with the AF/A10 and Air Force Global Strike Command, established a series of courses at Kirtland AFB to provide continuing education through the careers of those Air Force personnel working in or supporting the nuclear enterprise. This mission was transferred to the Counterproliferation Center in 2012, broadening its mandate to providing education and research to not just countering WMD but also nuclear deterrence. In February 2014, the Center’s name was changed to the Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies to reflect its broad coverage of unconventional weapons issues, both offensive and defensive, across the six joint operating concepts (deterrence operations, cooperative security,

Issue No. 1196, 18 December 2015 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538