Diwali Picks 2018 Biocon Ltd

Diwali Picks 2018 Biocon Ltd. (CMP: INR 604; Mkt Cap: INR 36,243 cr)

Investment Hypothesis Share Holding Pattern (%) BIOCON is largest biologics company in India, company has 3 business verticals Contract manufacturing, Contract research and Branded Domestic formulation Promoter 60.7 Company is frontrunner in upcoming Biosimilar opportunities globally Company has filed for block buster Biologics drugs e.g. HUMIRA ($17 bn), LANTUS ($6 bn Public 37.9 , Approved), NEULASTA ($ 5 bn , Approved), Enbrel ($ 10 bn), HERCEPTIN ( $ 7 bn) and AVASTIN ($ 7 bn), all this filing will take Biocon to next level within next 4-5 years Others 1.50 US generics business will see significant pricing pressure due to Channel consolidation, highest ever approval and reducing opportunity size. Hence those companies who are heavily depended on US chemical based generics should be avoided and biosimilar based companies should be added on portfolio Company has grown its PAT at 4.5% CAGR since last 5 years , next 3 years growth CAGR would be whopping 51% CAGR , largely driven by Biologics At CMP stock is trading at 33x of FY20E EPS

Indexed price comparison

INR Cr FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E 250 Revenues (INR Cr) 3846 3978 5236 6637 200 Rev growth (%) 18% 3% 32% 27% EBITDA (INR Cr) 980 829 1234 1843 150

Margin 25% 21% 24% 28% 100 (Indexed) EPS (INR Cr) 10.1 5.6 10.2 18.05 50 EPS growth (%) 9% -45% 82% 77% P/E (x) 59.3 107.0 58.7 33.2 0

P/B (x) 4.7 6.9 6.7 5.6

Jul-17 Jul-18

Jan-17 Jan-18

Oct-17 Oct-18

Apr-17 Apr-18 RoACE (%) 11.4% 7.8% 11.3% 14.7% Biocon Sensex RoAE (%) 13.8% 7.4% 11.2% 16.7% 2 Dabur India Ltd. (CMP: INR 398; Mkt Cap: INR 70,341 cr)

Investment Hypothesis Share Holding Pattern (%) Dabur, is one of the largest FMCG company in India, Its has two divisions in India (Consumer care division and Foods division), the company also have international operations Promoter 68.0 Consumer care division (CCD) offers a wide range of products in hair care, oral care, health supplements, digestives and candies, baby and skin care products based on ayurveda, over- the-counter (OTC) products, and branded ethical and classic products Public 32.1 Dabur’s Foods division, have products like fruit juices, cooking pastes, sauces, and items for institutional food purchases Others – Company generate 50% sales from rural market compare to industry average of 35%-40% Company’s PAT in the last 5 years have growth at a CAGR of 14% . We believe that the company would grow at a CAGR of 17% over the next 3 years The category in which Dabur operates is expansion , like PATANJALI has been able to expand the market for Honey from INR 400 cr to INR 700 cr, and Toothpaste market from INR 6000 cr to INR 9000 cr, which is beneficial for DABUR in the long run. We expect volume should improve from 3.5% on an average since 3QFY17 to 8% from 1QFY19 onwards At CMP stock is trading at 36x of FY20E EPS Indexed price comparison

INR Cr FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E 200 Revenues (INR Cr) 7,680 7,653 8,864 9,882 180 160 Rev growth (%) -2.0 0.2 15.7 11.4 140 EBITDA (INR Cr) 1,508 1,617 1,926 2,188 120 100

Margin 19.5 20.9 21.5 21.9 80 (Indexed) EPS (INR Cr) 7.2 7.7 9.6 11.0 60 40 EPS growth (%) 2.0 7.4 24.3 14.5 20 P/E (x) 55.2 51.3 41.3 36.0 0

P/B (x) 14.5 12.3 10.6 9.2

Jul-17 Jul-18

Jan-17 Jan-18

Oct-17 Oct-18

Apr-17 Apr-18 RoACE (%) 30.6 28.1 30.8 31.2 Dabur Sensex RoAE (%) 28.2 25.8 27.5 27.2 3 HDFC Bank Ltd. (CMP: INR 1,961; Mkt Cap: INR 5,33,009 cr)

Investment Hypothesis HDFC Bank is the largest private bank with an assets and loans & advances INR 10.6tn and INR Share Holding Pattern (%) 6.5tn respectively. The distribution network comprises of 4,787 branches and 12,635 ATMs spread across 2,691 cities / towns Promoter 25.6 HDFC Bank is consistently gaining market share in advances and deposits. Bank’s market share in advances and deposits increased to 6.1% and 5.6% in FY18 from 2.3% and 2.6% in FY06 respectively Public 74.4 RoA is expected to improve on back of the following factors a) cost-income ratio is likely to come down as digitization plays a key role from client’s acquisition to disbursement; b) credit Others – cost was elevated in last year due to higher agri slippage which is likely to remain moderate leading to a comparatively lower credit cost in near term HDFC Bank consistently witnessed healthy profit growth even in challenging environment. The Bank’s net interest income (NII) and net profit growth was 26% and 28% respectively over the last 48 quarters on the back of 28% growth over loans & advances We have projected net revenue and net profit to grow at 20% and 26% respectively over FY18-20e on back of 25% growth in loans & advances HDFC Bank may look to unlock value by selling stake in its subsidiaries HDB Financial Services and HDFC Securities. HDB for FY18 reported PAT of INR 9.5bn and Loan book of INR 436bn, HDFC Securities reported revenue for FY18 of INR 7.9 bn and PAT of INR 3.4 bn. We believe Indexed price comparison the bank may divest stake in its subsidiaries in future to unlock value for the bank and strengthen its balance-sheet 210 At CMP, stock is trading at 3.2x FY20 ABV with a RoA and RoE of 2.1% and ~18% 180 INR Cr FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E 150 Net Revenue 33,139 40,094 48,255 57,972 120 PPOP 25,732 32,624 40,096 48,950 (Indexed)

Net Profit 14,549 17,486 21,834 27,166 90 EPS (INR) 56.7 67.3 80.3 99.9 ABV (INR) 344.0 402.5 541.1 615.5 60

P/E(x) Jul-18

34.6 29.2 24.5 19.6 Jul-17

Jan-17 Jan-18

Jun-17 Jun-18

Oct-17 Oct-18

Apr-17 Apr-18

Feb-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 Sep-18

Dec-17

Aug-17 Aug-18

Nov-17

Mar-17 Mar-18

May-17 May-18 P/ABV(x) 5.7 4.8 3.6 3.1 HDFC Bank Sensex GNPA (%) 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.4 Advances 60,846 1,08,922 55,362 66,332 4 Havells India Ltd. (CMP: INR 603; Mkt Cap: INR 37,707 cr)

Investment Hypothesis Incorporated in 1983, Havells is one of the largest and fastest growing manufacturers of Share Holding Pattern (%) electrical components and systems in India. It is the market leader in light‐duty power distribution products. Its offerings include electrical products like circuit protection Promoter 59.5 equipment (domestic and industrial switchgears), cables and wires, and consumer durables like fans, CFLs, and lighting fixtures Havells recently acquired (Feb 2017) the consumer segment of Lloyd Electricals (which the Public 40.4 company plans to continue) which would give HAVL access to Lloyds' strong distribution network with 10k touch points along with leadership in room AC segment with around Others 0.01 12‐14% market share GST will enable higher compliance and consolidation in the industry, which provides level playing field for players like Havells to compete with local unorganised players Company’s strategy of premiumisation of highly penetrated category is unique and sustainable INR 15000 cr underpenetrated Unitary cooling market provides next leg of growth for the company post Lloyd acquisition Company has grown its PAT at 13% CAGR since last 5 years , next 3 years growth would be 22% CAGR At CMP stock is trading at 34x of FY20E EPS Indexed price comparison

INR Crs FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E 250

Revenues (INR Cr) 6,135 8,138 9,887 11,736 200 Rev growth (%) 14.0 32.6 21.4 18.7 150 EBITDA (INR Cr) 824 1049 1293 1594

Margin 13.4 12.8 13.0 13.5 (Indexed) 100 EPS (INR Cr) 9.5 11.2 13.8 17.3 50 EPS growth (%) 17.1 17.3 23.3 24.8

P/E (x) 62.6 53.3 43.2 34.6 0 Jul-18

P/B (x) 11.4 9.9 8.9 7.8 Jul-17

Jan-17 Jan-18

Oct-17 Oct-18

Apr-17 Apr-18 RoACE (%) 26.1 28.0 30.7 33.5 Havells Sensex RoAE (%) 19.1 19.9 21.8 24.1 5 Sun Pharma Ltd. (CMP: INR 554; Mkt Cap: INR 1,32,935 cr)

Investment Hypothesis SUN pharma is largest pharmaceutical company in India with 30% of sales coming from Share Holding Pattern (%) domestic markets and remaining 70% from exports In India, the company is ranked No.1 as per IMS sales ranking. In the US, it has a strong Promoter 54.3 presence in complex generics and is directing its R&D spending towards biosimilars and new products opportunities Public 45.6 During FY18, the company got adversely impacted by the significant price erosion witnessed in the US generic pharmaceutical market. We think this phenomenon was transient due to strong influx of generic competition led by rapid ANDA approvals by the US FDA Others – However, subsequent impact of further generic competition will not be as significant with the company having adequate launch pipeline to fuel future growth Post Halol resolution, we expect base business will move from $80 mn per quarter to $120 mn per quarter from 2QFY19 onward Innovative pipeline which include ODOMZO, SISCERA, TILTRA and ILLYA will drive incremental growth and expect $400 mn peak sales within next 5 years, which will compensate price erosion in base generics business Company will have INR 20,000 cr net cash at the end of FY19E, which can be utilised for earning accretive acquisition Indexed price comparison At the CMP the stock is trading at PE multiple of 32x FY19E and 23xFY20E

INR Cr FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E 160 140 Revenues (INR Cr) 30,264 26,065 29,646 33,040 120 Rev growth (%) 8.5 -14.0 13.7 11.4 100 EBITDA (INR Cr) 10,089 5,608 7,000 8,376 80

Margin 31.9 21.1 23.2 24.9 (Indexed) 60 EPS (INR Cr) 28.9 13.4 17.5 22.8 40 20 EPS growth (%) 35.3 -53.0 30.7 29.6 0

P/E (x) 19.3 41.5 31.7 24.4

Jul-17 Jul-18

Jan-17 Jan-18

Oct-17 Oct-18 Apr-18 P/B (x) 3.6 3.5 3.2 2.8 Apr-17 RoACE (%) 20.3 9.9 11.5 13.5 Sun Pharma Sensex RoAE (%) 20.2 9.0 10.4 12.1 6 Voltas Ltd. (CMP: INR 507; Mkt Cap: INR 16,774 cr)

Investment Hypothesis Share Holding Pattern (%) Voltas is a Tata Group company, it has 3 business vertical Unitary Cooling Products(UCP), Trunky HVAC services and equipment services business Promoter 30.3 In UCP segment VOLTAS is market leader in Room AC with 21% market share  Recent weakness in UCP business in transient in nature, long term story of higher penetration of AC business remain intact Public 69.7  Trunky HVAC business is for installing air conditioning solution in large infra projects Others –  EPC business has seen turnaround since last 4 quarter, from EBITDA loss to 6.5% EBITDA margin in FY18. According to management, incremental order are in the range of 7%-8% EBITDA margins, which will help scaling up the profitability going ahead Voltas’s equipment services business provides spare/parts and services to various capital goods / construction equipment for global partners Company has grown its PAT at 24% CAGR since last 5 years , next 3 years growth would be 13% CAGR. At CMP stock is trading at 22x of FY20E EPS Indexed price comparison

INR Cr FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E 250 Revenues (INR Cr) 6,032 6,404 7,389 8,463 200 Rev growth (%) 5.4 6.1 15.3 14.5 EBITDA (INR Cr) 566 662 790 952 150

Margin 9.3 10.3 10.6 11.2 100 (Indexed) EPS (INR Cr) 15.6 17.2 20.1 24.1 50 EPS growth (%) 44.1 10.7 16.3 20.0

P/E (x) 33.7 30.4 26.1 21.8 0 Jul-18

P/B (x) 5.2 4.4 3.9 3.4 Jul-17

Apr-17 Apr-18

Jan-17 Jan-18

Oct-17 Oct-18

RoACE (%) 22.8 21.4 22.2 23.2 Voltas Sensex RoAE (%) 16.8 15.8 15.9 16.8 7 Disclaimer

Edelweiss Broking Limited (“EBL” or “Research Entity”) is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) and is licensed to carry on the business of broking, depository services and related activities. The business of EBL and its Associates (list available on www.edelweissfin.com) are organized around five broad business groups – Credit including Housing and SME Finance, Commodities, Financial Markets, Asset Management and Life Insurance. Broking services offered by Edelweiss Broking Limited under SEBI Registration No.: INZ000005231; Name of the Compliance Officer: Mr. Brijmohan Bohra, Email ID: [email protected] Corporate Office: Edelweiss House, Off CST Road, Kalina, Mumbai - 400098; Tel. 18001023335/022-42722200/022-40094279

Disclosures under the provisions of SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations 2014 (Regulations) Edelweiss Broking Limited ("EBL" or "Research Entity") is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India ("SEBI") and is licensed to carry on the business of broking, depository services and related activities. The business of EBL and its associates are organized around five broad business groups – Credit including Housing and SME Finance, Commodities, Financial Markets, Asset Management and Life Insurance. There were no instances of non-compliance by EBL on any matter related to the capital markets, resulting in significant and material disciplinary action during the last three years. This research report has been prepared and distributed by Edelweiss Broking Limited ("Edelweiss") in the capacity of a Research Analyst as per Regulation 22(1) of SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations 2014 having SEBI Registration No.INH000000172

This Report has been prepared by Edelweiss Broking Limited in the capacity of a Research Analyst having SEBI Registration No.INH000000172 and distributed as per SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations 2014. This report does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable. This report is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this report should make such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult his own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors.

This information is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject EBL and associates / group companies to any registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction. The distribution of this report in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons in whose possession this report comes, should observe, any such restrictions. The information given in this report is as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with this information. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. EBL reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time. EBL or any of its associates / group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. EBL is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendation to its clients. Neither EBL nor any of its associates, group companies, directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct, indirect, special or consequential including loss of revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance .The disclosures of interest statements incorporated in this report are provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. The information provided in these reports remains, unless otherwise stated, the copyright of EBL. All layout, design, original artwork, concepts and other Intellectual Properties, remains the property and copyright of EBL and may not be used in any form or for any purpose whatsoever by any party without the express written permission of the copyright holders.

EBL shall not be liable for any delay or any other interruption which may occur in presenting the data due to any reason including network (Internet) reasons or snags in the system, break down of the system or any other equipment, server breakdown, maintenance shutdown, breakdown of communication services or inability of the EBL to present the data. In no event shall EBL be liable for any damages, including without limitation direct or indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages, losses or expenses arising in connection with the data presented by the EBL through this report. We offer our research services to clients as well as our prospects. Though this report is disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. We will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.

EBL and its associates, officer, directors, and employees, research analyst (including relatives) worldwide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company(ies), mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the subject company/company(ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or have other potential/material conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions at the time of publication of research report or at the time of public appearance. EBL may have proprietary long/short position in the above mentioned scrip(s) and therefore should be considered as interested. The views provided herein are general in nature and do not consider risk appetite or investment objective of any particular investor; readers are requested to take independent professional advice before investing. This should not be construed as invitation or solicitation to do business with EBL. EBL or its associates may have received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months. EBL or its associates may have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months. EBL or its associates may have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months. EBL or its associates may have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past 12 months. EBL or its associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the research report. Research analyst or his/her relative or EBL’s associates may have financial interest in the subject company. EBL, its associates, research analyst and his/her relative may have other potential/material conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions at the time of publication of research report or at the time of public appearance. Participants in foreign exchange transactions may incur risks arising from several factors, including the following: ( i) exchange rates can be volatile and are subject to large fluctuations; ( ii) the value of currencies may be affected by numerous market factors, including world and national economic, political and regulatory events, events in equity and debt markets and changes in interest rates; and (iii) currencies may be subject to devaluation or government imposed exchange controls which could affect the value of the currency. Investors in securities such as ADRs and Currency Derivatives, whose values are affected by the currency of an underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.

Research analyst has served as an officer, director or employee of subject Company: No EBL has financial interest in the subject companies: No EBL’s Associates may have actual / beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of research report. Research analyst or his/her relative has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of research report: No EBL has actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of research report: No Subject company may have been client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research report.

There were no instances of non-compliance by EBL on any matter related to the capital markets, resulting in significant and material disciplinary action during the last three years. A graph of daily closing prices of the securities is also available at www.nseindia.com

Analyst Certification: The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Additional Disclaimer for U.S. Persons Edelweiss is not a registered broker – dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the“1934 act”) and under applicable state laws in the United States. In addition Edelweiss is not a registered investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the Acts, any brokerage and investment services provided by Edelweiss, including the products and services described herein are not available to or intended for U.S. persons. This report does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe for any securities or solicitation of any investments or investment services and/or shall not be considered as an advertisement tool. "U.S. Persons" are generally defined as a natural person, residing in the United States or any entity organized or incorporated under the laws of the United States. US Citizens living abroad may also be deemed "US Persons" under certain rules. Transactions in securities discussed in this research report should be effected through Edelweiss Financial Services Inc.

Additional Disclaimer for U.K. Persons The contents of this research report have not been approved by an authorised person within the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 ("FSMA"). In the United Kingdom, this research report is being distributed only to and is directed only at (a) persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the FSMA (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”); (b) persons falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order (including high net worth companies and unincorporated associations); and (c) any other persons to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). This research report must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this research report relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this research report or any of its contents. This research report must not be distributed, published, reproduced or disclosed (in whole or in part) by recipients to any other person.

Additional Disclaimer for Canadian Persons Edelweiss is not a registered adviser or dealer under applicable Canadian securities laws nor has it obtained an exemption from the adviser and/or dealer registration requirements under such law. Accordingly, any brokerage and investment services provided by Edelweiss, including the products and services described herein, are not available to or intended for Canadian persons. This research report and its respective contents do not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe for any securities or solicitation of any investments or investment services.