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Equity Research INDIA August 19, 2020 Virtual Conference 2020 ICICI Securities Limited Is the Author and Key Highlights Distributor of This Report

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Equity Research INDIA August 19, 2020 Virtual Conference 2020 ICICI Securities Limited Is the Author and Key Highlights Distributor of This Report Equity Research INDIA August 19, 2020 Virtual Conference 2020 ICICI Securities Limited is the author and Key Highlights distributor of this report We hosted 34 large cap corporates at “I-Sec Virtual Conference 2020” between August 17 and 19, 2020. S. No. Companies Analyst 1 TCS Hardik Sangani 2 Infosys Hardik Sangani 3 ITC Manoj Menon 4 Asian Paints Manoj Menon 5 Sun Pharma Sriraam Rathi 6 Ultratech Cement Krupal Maniar 7 Titan Manoj Menon 8 Power Grid Rahul Modi 9 Dabur Manoj Menon 10 BPCL Vidyadhar Ginde 11 Godrej Consumer Manoj Menon 12 Dr Reddy Laboratories Sriraam Rathi 13 Biocon Vinay Bafna 14 Cipla Sriraam Rathi 15 Aurobindo Pharma Sriraam Rathi 16 United Spirits Manoj Menon 17 Marico Manoj Menon 18 GAIL Vidyadhar Ginde 19 Lupin Sriraam Rathi 20 Grasim Krupal Maniar 21 Colgate Palmolive Manoj Menon 22 Tata Consumer Manoj Menon 23 Tata Steel Abhijit Mitra 24 Ambuja Cement Krupal Maniar 25 Hindalco Abhijit Mitra 26 Havells Ansuman Deb 27 UPL Aniruddha Joshi 28 United Breweries Manoj Menon 29 ACC Krupal Maniar 30 Voltas Renjith Sivaram 31 Dr Lal Path Sriraam Rathi 32 Astral Poly Technik Nehal Shah 33 KEC International Renjith Sivaram 34 Kajaria Ceramics Nehal Shah Research Analysts: I-Sec Equity Research [email protected] Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Virtual Conference August 19, 2020 ICICI Securities TABLE OF CONTENT Tata Consultancy Services (REDUCE, CMP: Rs2,252) ............................................... 3 Infosys (HOLD, CMP: Rs968) ......................................................................................... 4 Asian Paints (ADD, CMP: Rs1,836) ............................................................................... 5 Sun Pharma (BUY, CMP: Rs526) ................................................................................... 6 Ultratech Cement (BUY, CMP: Rs4,169) ....................................................................... 8 Titan (HOLD, CMP: Rs1,124) .......................................................................................... 9 Dabur (ADD, CMP: Rs495) ............................................................................................ 11 Godrej Consumer Products (ADD, CMP: Rs691) ....................................................... 12 Dr Reddy Lab (HOLD, CMP: Rs4518) .......................................................................... 13 Biocon (HOLD, CMP: Rs396) ....................................................................................... 15 Cipla (ADD, CMP: Rs771) ............................................................................................. 19 Aurobindo Pharma (ADD, CMP: Rs872) ..................................................................... 21 United Spirits (ADD, CMP: Rs585) .............................................................................. 22 Marico (ADD, CMP: Rs370) .......................................................................................... 23 GAIL India (HOLD, CMP: Rs101) ................................................................................. 25 Lupin (HOLD, CMP: Rs981) .......................................................................................... 26 Grasim Industries (ADD, CMP: Rs665) ....................................................................... 28 Colgate Palmolive (HOLD, CMP: Rs1,422) ................................................................. 29 Tata Consumer Products (ADD, CMP: Rs548) ........................................................... 30 Ambuja Cements (BUY, CMP: Rs227) ......................................................................... 31 Hindalco (BUY, CMP: Rs197) ....................................................................................... 32 Havells (ADD, CMP: Rs617) ......................................................................................... 34 UPL (BUY, CMP: Rs500) ............................................................................................... 35 United Breweries (UNRATED, CMP: Rs1,004) ............................................................ 36 ACC (BUY, CMP: Rs1,429) ........................................................................................... 37 Voltas (HOLD, CMP: Rs650) ......................................................................................... 38 Dr Lal Path (BUY, CMP: Rs1,881) ................................................................................ 39 Astral Poly Technik (ADD, CMP: Rs1,054) ................................................................. 41 KEC International (BUY, CMP: Rs314) ........................................................................ 43 Kajaria Ceramics (HOLD, CMP: Rs408) ...................................................................... 44 2 Virtual Conference August 19, 2020 ICICI Securities Tata Consultancy Services (REDUCE, CMP: Rs2,252) Hardik Sangani (+91 22 6637 7504) [email protected] Price chart Peak impact of pandemic was felt in the June quarter; some revival in demand is 2,500 being observed as economies are gradually are opening up. 2,200 1,900 As for BFSI, where growth was soft in FY20 (5.2% YoY in constant currency (Rs) 1,600 terms), Q1FY21 was an inflection point (decline of 4.9% CC YoY). TCS is seeing 1,300 some weakness in the UK geography; however, North America remains relatively 1,000 resilient. Key risk pertains to how companies perform after the effects of stimulus provided by governments globally wean away. Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 A large number of mid-sized deals are getting supplanted by ‘urgent’ type of deals, which are relatively smaller, as clients look to focus on keeping their systems ready for a remote-enabled workplace. Clients are also looking to engage with players who can help them with their cost takeout initiatives (relatively larger deal size) and provide end to end solutions. Primarily focus of companies is on digital imperatives in modernising the front-end, e.g. improving the UI and UX. However, as work becomes more remote and agile, and as digital forms a key offerings anchor, there will be an increased need for clients to transform their core going forward (e.g. for a mortgage company, it will become a key imperative to process loans much faster than earlier) TCS has been proactive in approaching clients and helping in their cost initiatives. It helps channel clients’ cost savings into newer technologies, which in turn helps TCS to offer better and differentiated end to end value propositions. TCS has not laid off any employees on account of the pandemic and also has generally not cut compensation. This has helped the company have industry- leading employee retention rates. This will also help fulfil demand when the market improves while competitors who have rationalised their employee base may not be able to quickly ramp up their employee count. In light of the current pandemic, there has been a big push to perform work more remotely. With utilisation and quality of work not getting significantly affected, clients may be open to greater offshoring going forward, which can also be a structural margin tailwind for TCS going forward. 3 Virtual Conference August 19, 2020 ICICI Securities Infosys (HOLD, CMP: Rs968) Hardik Sangani (+91 22 6637 7504) [email protected] Price chart In the past six months, on account of Covid-19 crisis, spends across sectors have 1,100 1,000 come down significantly. However, as clients are looking to save on spending, they 900 are looking for vendors who can help them with their cost takeout initiatives. 800 700 (Rs) 600 As the ongoing pandemic is resulting in increased WFH environment, services 500 pertaining to cloud and cybersecurity are becoming key areas of spending. 400 300 Infosys’ focus on localisation initiatives in the US, building six digital centres have helped it meaningfully de-risk itself from visa-related issues as currently majority of Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 headcount is not visa dependent. Even in a tough environment, healthy orderbook, recent large deal wins and a robust pipeline give comfort about the company being able to meet its revenue guidance range (0-2% growth in CC terms in FY21). In light of the ongoing pandemic, there has been a greater push to perform work more remotely. With utilisation and quality of work not getting significantly affected, clients may be open to greater offshoring going forward. Infosys has a well laid out capital allocation policy with 85% FCF to be returned to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The company has capacity to use both cash post shareholder distribution and cash in balance sheet to do acquisition which complements its digital strategy. Amongst other things, tuck-in acquisition would be a focal point as it is easier to integrate and targeted digital capabilities can be acquired. (Recent acquisition in space of cloud-based SAAS services providers, design studios have helped Infosys expand its offerings in various geos and segments) Discretionary costs such as travel shall gradually inch up as economies open albeit at a slower pace. Onsite utilisation is largely at the same level as Q4FY20. Offshore utilisation was meaningfully affected in Q4FY20 to early Q1FY21; however, it improved later. Hiring is still low as the company already has a bench which can take up incremental demand. It has not resorted to laying-off people due to the pandemic; however, performance related involuntary attrition in normal
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