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Consumer Goods Recovery in Discretionary and Urban Sales Led to Better Q3 Sector Update

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Consumer Goods Recovery in Discretionary and Urban Sales Led to Better Q3 Sector Update Consumer Goods Recovery in discretionary and urban sales led to better Q3 Sector Update Consumer goods companies’ Q3 performance was driven by sales recovery of Q3FY2021 Results Review discretionary categories (such as value-added hair oil and personal care products), sustained higher demand for healthcare and hygiene products, better traction to Sector: Consumer Goods new launches, and higher demand in rural markets coupled with improving demand in urban markets. General trade continues to grow strongly, e-commerce mix to Sector View: Positive overall revenue is improving due to higher sales and modern trade channel has witnessed sequential improvement due to recovery in urban sales. Most consumer goods companies under our coverage registered organic revenue growth of 6%-16%, driven by domestic volume growth of 7%-18% in Q3. Paint companies, including Asian Paints, registered strong volume growth of 30%, led by sustained high demand in tier III/IV towns and improving demand in metros and top cities due to receding scare of virus and improving construction and real estate activities. Overall, Sharekhan’s consumer goods universe registered revenue growth of ~14% in Q3FY2021, better than 9.1% growth achieved in Q2FY2021. Significant increase Our coverage universe in prices of palm oil, copra, other edible oils, and raw tea/coffee resulted in gross Companies CMP Reco. PT margin decline for companies such as HUL, Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL), (Rs) (Rs) Marico, and Tata Consumer Products (TCPL). However, lower ad spends and cost- Asian Paints 2,389 Buy 3,000 saving initiatives arrested the sharp decline of 80-100 bps in operating profit margins (OPM) for some companies. ITC’s cigarette sales volume decreased by 7% Britannia 3,363 Buy 4,200 in Q3, improving from 12% volume decline in Q2FY2021. OPM declined by 437 bps Industries due to unfavourable mix. Overall, Sharekhan’s FMCG universe OPM was down 70 Colgate- 1,596 Buy 1,850 bps to 25.5% and PAT grew by 11% in Q3. Palmolive (India) Outlook Dabur India 520 Buy 605 Revenue growth to sustain; RM inflation will be mitigated by cost-saving measures Emami 468 Buy 570 Some of the key highlights of Q3 were 1) recovery in discretionary categories; 2) modern Godrej Consumer 721 Buy 850 trade regaining momentum with improving urban sales; 3) rural demand continues Products to stay high and ahead of urban demand; and 4) general trade and e-commerce Hindustan 2,165 Buy 2,790 continue to remain key growth channels. We expect Q4FY2021 to be stronger on Unilever a y-o-y basis as Q4FY2020 performance was affected by the lockdown in the fag- ITC 218 Buy 265 end of Q4. Further, recovery in the out-of- home categories and stable growth in discretionary categories will substitute the impact of normalisation in categories such Jyothy Labs 153 Buy 188 as healthcare products, personal hygiene, and packaged foods such as biscuits, atta, Marico 417 Buy 477 and noodles in the coming quarters (grew in strong double digits in H1FY21). Sales Nestle India 16,740 Buy 19,055 through the modern trade channel will sequentially improve with recovering urban Tata Consumer 632 Buy 685 demand. Input cost inflation will put pressure on gross margins. However, judicious Products price hikes, cost-saving measures, and prudent ad spends will mitigate the impact of -material cost inflation in the coming quarters. Long-term structural growth story Zydus Wellness 1,895 Buy 2,300 of the consumer goods sector is intact, as penetration/consumption levels of some Source: Sharekhan Research categories is lower compared to other countries, shift happening to trusted brand, e-commerce emerging as one of the key channels for branded players, improving aspiration levels in tier 3-4 towns, and consumers becoming more cautious towards health and hygiene, providing large opportunities for consumer goods companies to improve their growth prospects in the long run. Gradual scale up in OPM will happen due to better revenue mix and operating leverage in the coming years. Valuations Consumer goods sectors saw faster recovery compared to some of the other sectors in the pandemic environment. Decent earnings visibility, strong balance sheet, and better return profile provide valuation premium for consumer goods companies Price chart compared to other sectors. In the large-cap space, we continue to like HUL and Asian Paints as both companies are market leaders in key categories, have strong 16000 7000 distribution reach to cater to improving demand, and sturdy balance sheet to lead 14000 6000 5000 its innovation strategy. HUL and Asian Paints have corrected by ~11% and ~16%, 12000 4000 respectively, from their recent highs; and any further correction provides good 10000 3000 accumulation opportunity in these stocks from a long-term perspective. Improving 2000 8000 1000 growth prospects of the core cigarette business and scaling of up of margins of non- 6000 0 cigarette FMCG business make ITC as one of the better picks in the FMCG space with 21 20 17 15 16 18 19 favourable risk-reward ratio. In the mid-cap space, we continue to like Tata Consumer - - - - - - - Jul Jul Jun Products, as synergistic benefits from the acquisition of Tata Chemical’s consumer Apr Feb Mar May business, improving outlook for out-of-home categories, and better growth strategies Nifty 50 Nifty Consumption under the new leadership make it a better pick in the mid-cap FMCG space. Dabur Source: Sharekhan Research; BSE website India has posted consistent operating performance for the past few quarters; and with strong portfolio of brands catering to various categories, growth prospects are expected to remain better in the coming quarters. Key Risks Any disruption caused by frequent lockdowns or slowdown in the domestic demand environment or spike in key input prices would be a key risk to performance of consumer goods companies. Leaders for Q3FY2021: Asian Paints, Emami, Dabur India, and Tata Consumer Products Laggards for Q3FY2021: Nestle India Preferred Picks: Asian Paints, HUL, ITC, Dabur India, and TCPL February 17, 2021 2 Sector Update Q3FY2021 result snapshot Rs. cr Net sales OPM (%) BPS Adjusted PAT Companies y-o-y Q3FY21 Q3FY20 y-o-y (%) Q3FY21 Q3FY20 (y-o-y) Q3FY21 Q3FY20 (%) Asian Paints 6788.5 5420.3 25.2 26.3 21.9 439 1265.4 779.7 62.3 Britannia Industries 3165.61 2982.7 6.1 19.3 16.8 249 452.6 369.6 22.5 Colgate-Palmolive (India) 1231.9 1147.2 7.4 30.1 27.6 253 248.4 199.1 24.7 Dabur India 2728.8 2353.0 16.0 21.0 20.9 9 493.6 415.0 18.9 Emami 933.6 812.6 14.9 36.4 32.5 395 258.1 200.0 29.0 Godrej Consumer Products 3055.4 2778.1 10.0 23.3 22.7 55 495.4 421.2 17.6 Hindustan Unilever 11862.0 9808.0 20.9 24.1 24.9 -87 1952.1 1688.3 15.6 ITC 12580.4 12013.0 4.7 34.0 38.4 -437 3662.9 3898.4 -6.0 Jyothy Labs 476.6 420.8 13.3 16.8 15.8 100 53.3 45.0 18.5 Marico 2122.0 1824.0 16.3 19.5 20.4 -99 312.0 276.0 13.0 Nestle India** 3417.5 3130.7 9.2 22.6 21.5 111 483.3 473.0 2.2 Tata Consumer Products* 3069.6 2493.0 23.1 11.8 12.8 -99 242.0 185.2 30.7 Zydus Wellness 381.6 332.7 14.7 13.0 11.2 176 29.1 8.9 228.3 Grand Total 51813.6 45516.0 13.8 25.5 26.2 -70 9948.0 8959.3 11.0 * Tata Consumer Q3FY2021 includes consolidation of the foods business of Tata Chemicals **Values for Nestle India are for Q4CY2020 and Q4CY2019 Valuations EPS (Rs) PE (x) Price CMP Companies Reco. target (Rs) FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E (Rs.) Asian Paints 2,389 33.2 39.1 46.0 72.0 61.1 51.9 Buy 3,000 Britannia Industries 3,363 75.7 83.9 97.3 44.4 40.1 34.6 Buy 4,200 Colgate-Palmolive (India) 1,596 31.7 35.1 38.5 50.3 45.5 41.4 Buy 1,850 Dabur India 520 9.7 11.7 13.5 53.6 44.4 38.5 Buy 605 Emami 468 15.3 18.1 21.2 30.6 25.9 22.1 Buy 570 Godrej Consumer Products 721 17.3 19.8 22.8 41.7 36.4 31.6 Buy 850 Hindustan Unilever 2,165 33.7 44.4 50.9 64.2 48.8 42.5 Buy 2,790 ITC 218 10.2 12.4 14.0 21.3 17.6 15.5 Buy 265 Jyothy Labs 153 6.1 7.0 8.2 25.0 21.8 18.6 Buy 188 Marico 417 9.2 10.7 12.3 45.3 38.9 33.9 Buy 477 Nestle India 16,740 216.0 265.4 303.0 77.5 63.1 55.2 Buy 19,055 Tata Consumer Products 632 10.9 12.7 14.3 58.0 49.8 44.2 Buy 685 Zydus Wellness 1,895 34.2 47.9 61.1 55.4 39.6 31.0 Buy 2,300 Source: Company, Sharekhan estimates # TCPL earnings estimates are including the financials of consumer business Tata Chemicals February 17, 2021 3 Sector Update Sales volume continues to improve in Q3FY2021 Companies Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Colgate (vol) 7.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 2.3 -8.0 -8.0 3-4 7 Colgate (val) -0.6 2.7 2.0 0.6 2.0 1.0 3.9 2-3 0.8 Dabur (vol) 12.4 5.9 9.6 4.8 5.6 -14.6 -9.7 16.8 18.0 Dabur (val) 2.7 4.3 -0.3 -0.7 0.0 2.3 -3.2 -3.1 1.5 Emami (vol) 3.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 -2.0 -19.0 -28.0 10.0 13.0 Emami (val) 3.5 3.0 2.0 2.4 0.6 -2.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 GCPL soap (val) 1.6 -1.0 3.0 -4.0 -4.0 -23.5 -2.0 18.5 15.0 GCPL home insecticide (val) 25.0 -6.0 -4.0 4.0 3.2 -16.3 26.5 4.2 7.0 GCPL hair colour (val) 0.6 7.0 0.0 2.0 -3.7 -23.4 -17.7 -5.0 14.0 HUL consumer business (vol) 10.0 7.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 -7.0 -8.0 1.0 4.0 HUL consumer business (val) 1.3 2.3 1.6 2.0 -2.4 -2.4 1.0 2.0 3.0 ITC cigarette business (vol) 7.0 8-9 3.0 3.0 2.0 -10.0 -38.0 -12.0 -8.0 ITC cigarette business (val) 2.6 2.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 -1.7 9.0 -2.0 1.0 Jyothy Lab (vol) 6.1 6.0 5.6 8.3 -5.6 -22.0 6.1 8.5 15.0 Jyothy Lab (val) 0.2 0.3 2.3 0.0 -0.6 -2.0 4.1 -0.9 0.3 Marico group (vol) 5.0 8.0 6.0 1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -14.0 11.0 16.0 Marico group (val) 8.0 -1.0 7.0 -3.8 -4.0 -4.0 -0.7 -3.0 1.0 Marico (Parachute) - (vol) 9.0 6.0 9.0 0.0 -2.0 -8.0 -11.0 10.0 8.0 Marico (Saffola) - (vol) 2.0 18.0 3.0 1.0 11.0 25.0 16.0
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