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Emami Companyname RESULT UPDATE EMAMI Health and rural focus to bear fruit India Equity Research| Consumer Goods COMPANYNAME Emami’s consolidated Q1FY21 revenue (down 25.8% YoY), EBITDA (down EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS 8.3% YoY) and PAT (up 1.2% YoY) were better than our estimates. The Absolute Rating BUY lockdown affected performance in April and May, but June (domestic Rating Relative to Sector Performer business up 8% YoY) turned out to be well. The recovery has sustained Risk Rating Relative to Sector High with double-digit growth in July. Soft mentha prices expanded gross Sector Relative to Market Underweight margin 231bps YoY; with mentha prices remaining benign, we expect gross margin expansion to sustain. A sharp cut in ad spends (down 749bps YoY) led to 487bps YoY EBITDA margin expansion. The lockdown MARKET DATA (R: EMAM.BO, B: HMN IN) affected international business (IB) as well overall sales dipped 18% YoY CMP : INR 257 Target Price : INR 296 (however up 7% YoY in June). Going ahead, with promoter-level pledging 52-week range (INR) : 358 / 131 concern alleviating in the wake of the recent Emami Cement sale, a slew Share in issue (mn) : 444.5 of launches in health & hygiene to capitalise on the topical upswing, and M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 115 / 1,510 a higher rural contribution should hold the company in good stead. Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 958.1 Maintain ‘BUY’ with a TP of INR296. SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) Health & hygiene portfolio gains; discretionary portfolio suffers Current Q4FY20 Q3FY20 Key highlights: i) 43% of portfolio, which is aligned towards health & hygiene, grew Promoters * 53.9 52.7 52.7 29% YoY while the balance fell 44% YoY. Launches contributed 5% to domestic MF's, FI's & BK’s 29.8 31.5 28.7 revenue. ii) Gaining from the health & hygiene platform, the healthcare range, pain FII's 6.9 7.0 10.4 management range and BoroPlus revenue grew 23% YoY, 15% YoY and 28% YoY, Others 9.4 8.8 8.2 respectively. iii) Discretionary and summer-centric categories such as Navratna, Kesh * Promoters pledged shares : 48.3 King and the male grooming range were worst impacted; they slid 41% YoY, 33% YoY (% of share in issue) and 70% YoY, respectively. PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) EW Consumer Q1FY21 conference call: Key takeaways Stock Nifty Goods Index Domestic volume declined ~28% YoY. FY21 should end on a flat to positive note in 1 month 10.3 3.7 3.2 terms of revenue growth. Lost ~INR1,500mn of sales in Q1. The company is on the 3 months 42.3 21.4 16.4 verge of launching new brand in a month. This will be in the home hygiene space. 12 months (17.1) 3.3 7.1 Outlook and valuation: Gradual recovery; maintain ‘BUY’ As things normalise, we expect revenue growth to improve gradually as the rural business recovers, wholesale dependence recedes and product relaunches gain desired traction. Furthermore, alleviation of promoter-level pledging concern and launches in Abneesh Roy the health & hygiene space are added positives. We maintain ‘BUY/SP’ with a TP of +91 22 6620 3141 [email protected] INR296. The stock is trading at a PE of 23.8x FY22E. Financials (INR mn) Tushar Sundrani Year to March Q1FY21 Q1FY20 % change Q4FY20 % change FY20 FY21E FY22E +91 22 6620 3004 [email protected] Net rev. 4,813 6,486 (25.8) 5,327 (9.6) 26,549 25,842 28,472 EBITDA 1,230 1,341 (8.3) 985 24.8 6,905 7,365 8,171 Alok Shah Net profit 396 391 1.2 302 31.2 3,130 3,864 4,807 +91 22 6620 3040 [email protected] Dil. EPS (INR) 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.7 31.2 6.9 8.7 10.8 Diluted P/E (x) 37.3 29.6 23.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 16.9 15.4 13.5 ROAE (%) 15.7 20.1 22.2 August 7, 2020 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited Consumer Goods Table 1: Trends at a glance Growth (% YoY) Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Consolidated sales 13.5 (0.0) 7.2 3.7 5.6 5.1 0.2 16.7 (25.8) Domestic volume 16.0 (4.0) 3.0 2.0 0.1 1.0 (3.0) (19.0) (28.0) Boroplus (15.0) (7.0) 4.0 17.0 (7.0) 39.0 (12.0) (77.0) 28.0 Navratna 19.0 3.0 10.0 1.0 4.0 (3.0) 11.0 (12.0) (41.0) Pain management 39.0 (8.0) 6.0 1.0 (6.0) 4.0 13.0 (5.0) 15.0 Male grooming 8.0 12.0 (2.0) (4.0) (7.0) (32.0) (39.0) (42.0) (70.0) Kesh King 10.0 2.0 26.0 15.0 30.0 (11.0) 18.0 (26.0) (33.0) Healthcare 28.0 1.0 18.0 9.0 (3.0) 0.1 4.0 (9.0) 23.0 International sales growth 7.0 4.0 18.0 19.0 34.0 20.0 18.0 (4.0) (18.0) CSD 28.0 (3.0) 2.0 (1.0) (4.0) 25.0 7.0 NA (38.0) 7 Oils in one 33.0 36.0 25.0 24.0 31.0 25.0 66.0 5.0 NA Source: Company, Edelweiss research Q1FY21 conference call | Key Takeaways Covid-19 recovery and overall demand Performance in April and May impacted due to lockdown. Domestic volume declined ~28% YoY. No price increase effected. Domestic secondary sales declined lower at 15% YoY in Q1. In June and July, distributor stocks have further reduced. In June, distributor stock was 27-28 days and now it has dipped to 18-19 days. Distributor stock as at March was also at 29-30 days. Credit in the domestic business was 14-15 days, which is now down to 4- 5 days. FY21 should end on a flat to positive note in terms of revenue growth. Lost ~INR1,500mn of sales in Q1. New launches contributed 5% to domestic revenues in Q1. Lined up a slew of new launches in health and hygiene category. Going ahead also 5.0-5.5% contribution can come from NPDs. Most of the new launches have seen digital advertising. The company is on the verge of launching new brand in next one month. This will be in the home hygiene space. This market is large which is likely to double or triple over the next few years. 43% of portfolio is aligned towards health and hygiene. This portfolio grew 29% YoY. Balance 57% portfolio declined 44% YoY. Because of covid-19, focus has been on health and hygiene and the company has right products in the right category for consumers. Also, promoters’ focus is back on the business. Green shoots visible in June; double digit digit growth in July. Looking to end the year on a positive note. In July, secondary sales were higher than primary. Recovery has been largely on pan-India basis. Growth July onwards led by Zandu and pain management. Male grooming and Kesh king also picking up now. E-commerce doubled its contribution and grew >100%. CSD declined 38% YoY. Contribution of sachets has not gone up–remains in the 32-33% range. 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited Emami Rural surpassed urban. Wholesale channel grew during the quarter. Retail and MT declining. Boro plus is No. 2 brand in “More” & No. 3 in “Vishal Megamart” & “Walmart”. 10-12% shares pledged with Nuvoco on behalf of contingent liabilities. Pledged shares reduced to 55% and soon they will be below 50%. Overall promoter debt is INR11.3bn; management expects further debt reduction as sale of other asset happens. No other family member has joined Emami. Not looking for any acquisition opportunities. Healthcare range Grew 23% YoY for the quarter with 59% YoY growth in June. On Chwayanprash, did 8x sales in Q1. Going ahead, significant resources will be put behind the Zandu brand. Has separate sales force of about 350 people for Zandu. In honey, price correction is undertaken. Momentum is good. Pancharishta in July clocked double digit growth. For Q1, saw decline of about 10% YoY. With this pandemic, expects continued traction in brand. Zandu overall is INR2bn. Chwayanprash, honey and Pancharishta put together are INR1bn within overall Zandu. Overall was doing INR150-160mn sales per month, which is now doing INR220-230mn; this is ~30% YoY growth. Gross and EBITDA margins of Zandu are slightly higher than Emami’s margin. New healthcare head has joined from Dabur – Mr. Bhatia. Pain management Grew 15% YoY for the quarter with 43% YoY growth in June. Stress levels within people had increased during lockdown. Consumers were not taking pain killers and consumers instead moved to products like balm. These led to strong growth in sales of pain management category. Boroplus range Grew 28% YoY for the quarter with 92% YoY growth in June. Excluding sales of sanitizer, organic growth was minimal. Boroplus is known for antiseptic and germ killing properties and hence it is also gaining good traction. Toilet soap was launched in third week of June. Sanitiser contributed 3% and balance products contributed 2% to overall sale of NPDs. Navratna range Saw decline of 41% YoY with 10% YoY decline in June. Season for Navratna is gone now and hence management cant do much.
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