Hong Kong Consumer Discretionary 14 March 2016 Pou Sheng International (3813 HK) Pou Sheng Inter national Target price: HKD2.00 Share price (11 Mar): HKD1.70 | Up/downside: +17.6% Initiation: standing on the shoulders of giants Adrian Chan, CFA (852) 2848 4427 Sector’s structural growth likely to drive sustainable earnings growth
[email protected] Valuations look undemanding at 13.8x 2016E PER Anson Chan, CFA (852) 2532 4350 Initiating with a Buy (1) rating and 12-month target price of HKD2.0
[email protected] Investment case: Bridging the gap between two of the largest global Share price performance sportswear brands and one of the largest sportswear markets in the world, Pou (HKD) (%) Sheng looks well positioned to benefit from the fitness craze and “athleisure” 1.9 345 market in China as one of Nike and Adidas’s largest retail distributors in the 1.5 271 country. With the company having recovered to positive net profit territory in 1.2 198 0.8 124 2014 (after 2 years in the red), we expect robust demand for Nike/Adidas 0.4 50 products and operating leverage to drive robust earnings growth for Pou Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Sheng, leading to a 1.2pp rise in operating margin to 5.6% in 2017E, from Pou Sheng (LHS) Relative to HSI (RHS) 4.5% in 9M15, and a 30% EPS CAGR for 2015-17E. 12-month range 0.48-1.86 We like Pou Sheng for its status as a pure play on China sportswear, while Market cap (USDbn) 1.17 peer Belle International (1880 HK, Not rated) operates in the arguably more 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 2.00 Shares outstanding (m) 5,368 challenging ladies footwear segment in China.