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XTEP International (1368 HK) XTEP Internati Onal

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XTEP International (1368 HK) XTEP Internati Onal China Consumer Discretionary 19 October 2015 XTEP International (1368 HK) XTEP Internati onal Target price: HKD4.60 Share price (16 Oct): HKD3.97 | Up/downside: +15.9% Initiation: a step in the right direction Adrian Chan, CFA (852) 2848 4427 Rerating expected on successful rebranding to a functional brand [email protected] Strengthening e-commerce initiatives and ancillary income streams Anson Chan, CFA (852) 2532 4350 Initiating with Buy (1) rating and 12-month target price of HKD4.60 [email protected] Investment case: After attending Xtep’s 2Q16 sales fair in September Share price performance 2015, we believe the company is successfully transforming its business (HKD) (%) strategy to become a functional/performance-focused brand. Product-mix 4.1 130 enhancements from functional products (about 40-50% of 2Q16 orders vs. 3.6 113 less than 30% in 2015) carry higher ASPs than casual products and, on our 3.2 95 2.7 78 forecasts, would drive a 2.5pp improvement in the company’s operating 2.2 60 margin to 19.4% in 2017 from 16.9% in 2014. We forecast Xtep’s net profit Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 to see a CAGR of 20% in 2014-17. Based on this transformation in XTEP Inter (LHS) Relative to HSI (RHS) business strategy, we expect the market to rerate the stock from its current 9.9x 2016E PER to around 11.5x. 12-month range 2.20-4.06 Market cap (USDbn) 1.11 Catalysts: 1) Upward revisions to consensus forecasts following better- 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 2.14 Shares outstanding (m) 2,177 than-forecast 2Q16 sales fair results expected to be announced in the third Major shareholder Mr. Ding Shui Po (60.9%) or fourth week of October 2015; 2) confirmation of better-than-expected SSS growth and margin improvements as a result of its business Financial summary (CNY) transformation strategy, as reflected in the 1Q16 operational update in April Year to 31 Dec 15E 16E 17E 2016 followed by the 1H16 results in August 2016; 3) inclusion in Revenue (m) 5,264 5,835 6,373 Operating profit (m) 939 1,089 1,237 consensus estimates of incremental profit from the Wisdom (1661 HK, not Net profit (m) 615 720 825 rated) JV, which we estimate to be around 1-4% of Xtep’s 2016E EPS. Core EPS (fully-diluted) 0.280 0.328 0.376 Currently, we and the street have not factored in the potential incremental EPS change (%) 28.6 17.1 14.6 Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 3.3 7.9 11.1 profit from the JV due to it still being in the planning stage; and 4) PER (x) 11.6 9.9 8.7 incremental buying in the stock market as Xtep’s market cap now exceeds Dividend yield (%) 4.3 5.1 5.8 USD1bn. DPS 0.141 0.165 0.189 PBR (x) 1.4 1.3 1.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.1 4.2 3.5 Valuation: We initiate coverage on the stock with a Buy (1) rating and 12- ROE (%) 12.6 13.7 14.5 month target price of HKD4.60, based on an 11.5x 2016E PER. The stock Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts currently looks undervalued to us, trading at 9.9x 2016E earnings (6.4x ex- net cash) and we see grounds for it to be rerated closer to the sector average (around 13x) given its forte in the running/marathon segment. Moreover, we expect the company’s shift to a more functional and professional sportswear brand image to continue to support earnings growth. Risks: Channel inventory build-up on worse-than-expected demand for sportswear products as well as aggressive penetration into lower-tier cities from global sportswear brands are the key risks to our Buy (1) call. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 25 XTEP International (1368 HK): 19 October 2015 Table of contents “Three+” strategy fuels multiple growth drivers .................................................................. 6 Product+ – when fashion meets function ........................................................................................... 6 Sports+ – monetising ancillary income streams ................................................................................. 9 Internet+ – O2O sales platform to buoy growth ............................................................................... 10 Operating leverage in sight .................................................................................................. 13 Expect double-digit YoY profit growth in 2015-17 ............................................................................ 13 Robust balance sheet ........................................................................................................... 17 Strong cash balance ........................................................................................................................ 17 Valuation and risks ............................................................................................................... 19 Undemanding valuation with visible near-term catalysts .................................................................. 19 Risks to our call ............................................................................................................................... 21 Appendix ................................................................................................................................ 22 Company background ..................................................................................................................... 22 2 XTEP International (1368 HK): 19 October 2015 How do we justify our view? Growth outlook Valuation Earnings revisions Growth outlook Xtep: net-profit forecasts We expect Xtep to post its first positive YoY net profit (CNYm) growth, of 29% YoY, this year since 2011, off of a low base 1,200 40% 28.6% from bad debt provisions in 2014 and strong sell-through. 18.8% 30% 1,000 18.3% 17.1% 14.6% We forecast growth to remain robust in 2016-17, rising by 14.6% 14.0% 20% 800 10.0% 11.7% 17% YoY in 2016 and 15% YoY in 2017, from product mix- 17.4% 10% 600 12.3% 12.9% enhancements towards higher-margin functional products. 0% 400 We believe the JV profit from event operations could serve -16.2% (10%) as a potential earnings booster in 2016-17. -21.1% 200 -25.2% (20%) 0 (30%) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Net Profit YoY (RHS) NPm (RHS) Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts Valuation Xtep: 12-month forward PER The stock is trading currently at a 9.9x 2016E PER, based (x) on our forecasts, which is below the sector 13x average. 18 We believe Xtep deserves to trade closer to its peers as it trends (trades closer) at least in line with the sector (~12x 13 ex-Anta) given structural growth in the sector, driven by urbanisation, increased awareness of health matters, and 8 policy support for the sports industry. 3 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Mar-12 Mar-14 Mar-13 Mar-15 Sep-12 Nov-12 Sep-13 Nov-13 Sep-14 Nov-14 Sep-15 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 XTEP Sector Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts Earnings revisions Xtep: Daiwa v. consensus EPS forecasts Our 2015-17 earnings forecasts are 3-11% above those of EPS (CNY) 11% 12% the Bloomberg consensus. We expect the street to rerate 0.39 the stock when the 2Q16 trade fair results are announced, 0.37 8% 10% when we believe the company will post a set of 0.35 8% sequentially stronger results due to its increasing mix of 0.33 functional products. 6% 0.31 3% 4% 0.29 0.27 2% 0.25 0% 2015E 2016E 2017E Daiwa Consensus Difference (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts 3 XTEP International (1368 HK): 19 October 2015 Financial summary Key assumptions Year to 31 Dec 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E A&P (% of sales) 11.7 11.3 11.4 11.2 13.1 13.5 13.2 12.9 Staff cost (% of sales) 4.8 5.0 7.3 9.5 9.5 9.0 9.0 9.0 Footwear sales revenue (YoY %) n.a. 27 8 (17) 35 10 12 10 Apparel sales revenue (YoY %) n.a. 22 (7) (27) (16) 8 8 8 Profit and loss (CNYm) Year to 31 Dec 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Footwear 1,956 2,490 2,700 2,247 3,043 3,347 3,749 4,124 Apparel 2,421 2,950 2,746 2,012 1,688 1,823 1,968 2,126 Other Revenue 80 100 104 84 47 94 118 124 Total Revenue 4,457 5,540 5,550 4,343 4,778 5,264 5,835 6,373 Other income 15 16 68 158 149 100 75 75 COGS (2,645) (3,282) (3,293) (2,596) (2,831) (3,063) (3,337) (3,623) SG&A (849) (1,055) (1,194) (1,010) (1,287) (1,362) (1,484) (1,589) Other op.expenses 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Operating profit 978 1,219 1,131 895 809 939 1,089 1,237 Net-interest inc./(exp.) 0 (8) (25) (32) (38) (47) (44) (41) Assoc/forex/extraord./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax profit 978 1,211 1,106 863 770 891 1,044 1,196 Tax (165) (246) (299) (260) (284) (267) (313) (359) Min. int./pref. div./others 0 1 3 3 (8) (9) (11) (12) Net profit (reported) 814 966 810 606 478 615 720 825 Net profit (adjusted) 814 966 810 606 478 615 720 825 EPS (reported)(CNY) 0.374 0.444 0.372 0.278 0.220 0.282 0.331 0.379 EPS (adjusted)(CNY) 0.374 0.444 0.372 0.278 0.220 0.282 0.331 0.379 EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(CNY) 0.373 0.443 0.372 0.276 0.218 0.280 0.328 0.376 DPS (CNY) 0.165 0.187 0.189 0.143 0.108 0.141 0.165 0.189 EBIT 978 1,219 1,131 895 809 939 1,089 1,237 EBITDA 999 1,248 1,170 944 854 988 1,143 1,295 Cash flow (CNYm) Year to 31 Dec 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Profit before tax 978 1,211 1,106 863 770 891 1,044 1,196 Depreciation and amortisation 21 29 39 49 45 50 54 58 Tax paid (88) (124) (276) (308) (332) (267) (313) (359) Change in working capital (466) (955) 329 75 (417) 40 (125) (115) Other operational CF items 10 43 132 (21) 28 0 0 (0) Cash flow from operations 456 204 1,330 658 95 714 660 781 Capex (15) (85) (176) (229) (106) (100) (100) (100) Net (acquisitions)/disposals 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 Other investing
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