Xtep International Holdings Ltd Target Price: HKD5.20 Price: HKD3.21 Attractively Priced As Concerns Are Overdone Market Cap: Usd918m Bloomberg Ticker: 1368 HK
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Company Update Hong Kong 24 January 2017 Consumer Cyclical | Sportswear Buy (Maintained) Xtep International Holdings Ltd Target Price: HKD5.20 Price: HKD3.21 Attractively Priced As Concerns Are Overdone Market Cap: USD918m Bloomberg Ticker: 1368 HK Maintain BUY on Xtep with a revised TP of HKD5.20 (from HKD5.70, 62% Share Data upside) due to our lower earnings forecasts. We keep our upbeat view, as: Avg Daily Turnover (HKD/USD) 10.1m/1.32m 1. We expect recurring NP growth to pick up to double-digit levels in 52-wk Price low/high (HKD) 3.15 - 4.64 FY17, after being flattish in FY16; 2. Its FY17F P/E of 9x is undemanding, and at a 20% discount to the Free Float (%) 40 sector average of 11x; Shares outstanding (m) 2,149 3. Its FY17F dividend yield of 7% is also generous. Estimated Return 62% Distributor flattening exercise. We now estimate accounts receivable (AR) Shareholders (%) provisions of about CNY50m in 2H16 from nil (1H16: CNY64m), as a part of Mr Ding Shui Po 60.3 Xtep International Holdings’ (Xtep) distributor flattening exercise. Xtep is granting longer credit terms to its Tier-1 and Tier-2 distributors so they have more cash to take over the operations of distributors in Tiers 3-5. Xtep expects such provisions to be written back once credit terms are re-tightened, as these Share Performance (%) distributors have repaid to date. We also expect inventory provisions from the restructuring of Xtep Kids, although done on a smaller scale as Xtep Kids YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m represents less than 5% of total sales. As we deem such provisioning as Absolute (1.5) (2.7) (11.1) (22.3) (17.1) operational, we have not excluded them from our recurring NP forecasts. Relative (5.5) (8.8) (9.0) (26.5) (37.0) Stabilisation of trade fair growth. As we expect a higher proportion of sales Source: Bloomberg from e-commerce and replacement orders, future trade fair orders are likely to XTEP International Holdings Ltd (1368 HK) account for a smaller proportion of group sales – this is in line with Price Close Relative to Hang Seng Index (RHS) management’s view. Trade fair sales are likely to maintain a slower growth momentum (latest 2Q17: “low single-digit (SD) growth”) in the next quarters. 4.5 111 4.0 94 Healthy channel inventory. Xtep prioritises channel inventory to be kept 3.5 78 3.0 61 between four to five months, using retail promotion directives and the 20 18 16 adjustment of trade order deliveries to maintain that retail metric. For 2H16, 14 12 management indicated that deliveries for trade fair orders in 3Q16 and 4Q16 10 8 were trimmed (vs original sales growth of “high SD”), in line with its previous 6 4 guidance. We note SSSG was decent at “mid-SD” growth for 3Q16. 2 Volm 16 16 16 16 16 16 - - - - - - Jul Revised estimates. We reduce FY16-18F recurring earnings by 6%/6%/3% to Jan Mar Sep Nov May incorporate higher provisions and increased costs to reinvigorate Xtep Kids. We have conservatively not factored in any potential provisional write-backs Source: Bloomberg BUY. Its share price has been pressured lately from concerns on slower reported trade fair orders and the impact of provisions on near-term earnings. We believe the bulk of these concerns have been priced in and that the counter offers deep value. We expect Xtep to achieve sustainable long-term growth of over 10% pa, as it maintains positive sales growth, expands GPMs via product mix upgrades, and grows operating margins (ex-provisions). Its current FY17F P/E is only 9x (sector average: 11x) while our HKD5.20 TP offers a 62% upside. Although we do not see immediate short-term catalysts, we see longer-term upside from Xtep’s leading position in the nascent football category, and its expansion into the female indoor fitness and yoga wear segments. Downside risks to our call include softening demand for apparel, faster-than-expected contraction of its retail store network, and higher provisioning costs. Forecasts and Valuations Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Total turnover (CNYm) 4,778 5,295 5,582 5,906 6,560 Reported net profit (CNYm) 478 623 650 729 826 Recurring net profit (CNYm) 478 623 650 729 826 Recurring net profit growth (%) (21.1) 30.3 4.4 12.2 13.3 Recurring EPS (CNY) 0.22 0.29 0.29 0.33 0.37 DPS (CNY) 0.13 0.17 0.18 0.20 0.22 Recurring P/E (x) 13.0 9.8 9.7 8.6 7.6 P/B (x) 1.32 1.26 1.23 1.16 1.09 P/CF (x) na 9.1 10.0 8.8 8.3 Dividend Yield (%) 4.7 6.1 6.2 7.0 7.9 Analyst EV/EBITDA (x) 5.02 3.81 3.31 2.87 2.46 Robin Yuen, CFA Return on average equity (%) 10.4 13.0 13.0 13.9 14.8 Net debt to equity net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash +852 2103 9202 Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) (8.7) (8.9) (5.1) [email protected] Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Powered by the EFA Platform Xtep International Holdings Ltd Hong Kong Company Update 24 January 2017 Consumer Cyclical | Sportswear Financial Exhibits Financial model updated on: 2017-01-17. Asia Financial summary Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Hong Kong Recurring EPS (CNY) 0.22 0.29 0.29 0.33 0.37 Consumer Cyclical EPS (CNY) 0.22 0.29 0.29 0.33 0.37 Xtep International Holdings Ltd DPS (CNY) 0.13 0.17 0.18 0.20 0.22 Bloomberg 1368 HK BVPS (CNY) 2.16 2.26 2.32 2.45 2.60 Buy Weighted avg adjusted shares (m) 2,177 2,149 2,203 2,203 2,203 Valuation basis Valuation metrics Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F DCF Recurring P/E (x) 13.0 9.8 9.7 8.6 7.6 P/E (x) 13.0 9.8 9.7 8.6 7.6 Key drivers P/B (x) 1.32 1.26 1.23 1.16 1.09 i. Product mix upgrade; FCF Yield (%) (2.0) 10.0 7.6 9.0 9.6 ii. Sports participation rate. Dividend Yield (%) 4.7 6.1 6.2 7.0 7.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.02 3.81 3.31 2.87 2.46 Key risks EV/EBIT (x) 5.37 4.09 3.51 3.03 2.58 i. Channel oversupply; ii. Homogenisation; iii. Competition prices. Income statement (CNYm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Total turnover 4,778 5,295 5,582 5,906 6,560 Company Profile Gross profit 1,947 2,237 2,429 2,592 2,900 Xtep is amongst the top 3 domestic sportswear brands EBITDA 705 833 979 1,084 1,218 in China, with over 7,000 stores in its network. It Depreciation and amortisation (45) (57) (57) (57) (57) operates on an asset-light wholesale model that relies Operating profit 660 776 922 1,027 1,161 on franchisees to exclusively distribute its branded Net interest (38) (28) (20) (14) (12) goods at retail outlets. Pre-tax profit 770 893 993 1,103 1,239 Taxation (284) (257) (283) (314) (353) Minority interests (8) (14) (60) (60) (60) Recurring net profit 478 623 650 729 826 Cash flow (CNYm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Change in working capital (417) 163 (70) (57) (112) Cash flow from operations (16) 669 626 712 753 Capex (106) (59) (150) (150) (150) Cash flow from investing activities (538) 397 (160) (160) (160) Proceeds from issue of shares 2 36 0 0 0 Dividends paid (288) (317) (390) (437) (496) Cash flow from financing activities 17 (720) (450) (497) (556) Cash at beginning of period 3,563 3,247 3,671 3,757 3,888 Net change in cash (537) 346 16 55 37 Ending balance cash 3,027 3,600 3,687 3,812 3,925 Balance sheet (CNYm) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Total cash and equivalents 4,443 4,377 4,463 4,594 4,709 Tangible fixed assets 857 863 966 1,069 1,173 Intangible assets (3) (8) (13) (18) (23) Total investments 58 197 197 197 197 Total other assets 5 11 16 21 26 Total assets 7,864 8,114 8,432 8,803 9,301 Short-term debt 1,222 1,489 1,489 1,489 1,489 Total long-term debt 617 121 121 121 121 Other liabilities 0 2 2 2 2 Total liabilities 3,154 3,242 3,300 3,380 3,548 Shareholders' equity 4,700 4,852 5,112 5,403 5,734 Minority interests 10 20 20 20 20 Total equity 4,710 4,872 5,132 5,423 5,753 Net debt (2,604) (2,766) (2,853) (2,983) (3,098) Total liabilities & equity 7,864 8,114 8,432 8,803 9,301 Key metrics Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16F Dec-17F Dec-18F Revenue growth (%) 10.0 10.8 5.4 5.8 11.1 Recurrent EPS growth (%) (21.1) 32.0 1.8 12.2 13.3 Gross margin (%) 40.8 42.2 43.5 43.9 44.2 Operating EBITDA margin (%) 14.8 15.7 17.5 18.4 18.6 Net profit margin (%) 10.0 11.8 11.6 12.3 12.6 Dividend payout ratio (%) 60.3 59.9 60.0 60.0 60.0 Capex/sales (%) 2.2 1.1 2.7 2.5 2.3 Interest cover (x) 17.2 27.9 47.0 74.1 94.7 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Xtep International Holdings Ltd Hong Kong Company Update 24 January 2017 Consumer Cyclical | Sportswear Figure 1: Key changes to estimates New Estimates Old Estimates Difference FYE Dec (CNYm) 2016F 2017F 2018F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2016F 2017F 2018F Sales 5,582 5,906 6,560 5,582 5,944 6,560 0.0% -0.6% 0.0% COGS -3,153 -3,314 -3,660 -3,153 -3,335 -3,660 Gross profit 2,429 2,592 2,900 2,429 2,609 2,900 0.0% -0.6% 0.0% Selling & distribution -893 -1,004 -1,115 -893 -981 -1,115 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% General & administrative -614 -561 -623 -558 -535 -590 10.0% 4.9% 5.6% Other income 90 90 90 90 90 90 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% EBIT 1,012 1,117 1,251 1,068 1,183 1,284 -5.2% -5.6% -2.6% Net finance costs -20 -14 -12 -20 -14 -12 PBT 993 1,103 1,239 1,048 1,170 1,272 Tax -283 -314 -353 -299 -333 -363 Profit for the year 710 789 886 750 836 910 -5.3% -5.7% -2.6% Minority interest 60 60 60 60 60 60 NP to equity 650 729 826 690 776 850 -5.8% -6.1% -2.8% One-off adjustments 0 0 0 0 0 0 Recurring NP (Equity) 650 729 826 690 776 850 -5.8% -6.1% -2.8% EPS (Basic, CNY) 0.295 0.331 0.375 0.313 0.352 0.386 -5.8% -6.1% -2.8% DPS (CNY) 0.18 0.20 0.22 0.19 0.21 0.23 -5.8% -6.1% -2.8% As % of sales GP margin 43.5% 43.9% 44.2% 43.5% 43.9% 44.2% 0.0ppt 0.0ppt 0.0ppt SG&A expenses 27.0% 26.5% 26.5% 26.0% 25.5% 26.0% 1.0ppt 1.0ppt 0.5ppt EBIT margin 18.1%