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Xtep International Holdings Limited Asia Pacific Equity Research 03 May 2016 Xtep International Holdings ▼ Neutral Previous: Overweight Limited 1368.HK, 1368 HK Upside risk limited following weak update from Peak Price: HK$4.55 ▲ Price Target: HK$4.50 Sport - Downgrade to Neutral Previous: HK$4.30 Following a ~80% share price increase since start of Jul-15 (v HSI -12%), we see Hong Kong limited upside risk to consensus forecasts given the operational update reported by Consumer Peak Sport overnight. With the sales environment weakening, investors may turn AC more attention to concerns surrounding growth in receivables days. We therefore Shen Li, CFA (852) 2800 8523 downgrade Xtep to Neutral. [email protected] Following a weak update reported by Peak Sport, we think upside risk to Bloomberg JPMA SHLI <GO> consensus forecasts for Xtep is relatively limited. Peak Sport (1968 HK, Not Ebru Sener Kurumlu Covered) reported its operational update overnight. Trade fair orders for 4Q16 (852) 2800-8521 recorded a low-single-digit decline. This compares to low-teens growth for [email protected] 3Q16. The company attributed the slowdown to warmer weather and weak George Hsu consumer sentiment. Apparel reported low-teens decline, while footwear (852) 2800-8559 [email protected] reported low-teens growth. SSSG for 1Q16 was flat, which represents Dylan Chu deceleration relative to mid-single-digit growth reported for 4Q15. We note (852) 2800-8537 that generally, Chinese sportswear companies have reported incremental [email protected] decelerating sales from 4Q15. Given the overall backdrop of weak consumer J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited sentiment, we see limited upside risk to our forecasts for Xtep. Price Performance With sales environment weakening, investors may turn more attention to ongoing growth in receivables days. Looking at the bigger picture, Xtep's 4.5 3.5 trade receivable days has increased from ~60days at Dec-11 to ~117 days at HK$ Dec-15. While we understand that receivables days increased in 2H14 and 2.5 1H15 due to greater incentives to help first tier distributors open more stores, 1.5 ongoing growth in receivables days post 1H15 is somewhat concerning. With May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 sales across the industry slowing, investor attention may focus more on the 1368.HK share price (HK$) HSI (rebased) unsustainable nature of ongoing growth in receivables days. YTD 1m 3m 12m Abs 10.2% 9.6% 33.8% 61.3% Downgrade to Neutral. The Xtep share price has increased ~80% since start Rel 11.4% 6.2% 26.8% 86.4% of July (v HSI -12%). While the stock only trades at ~12x P/E, this still represents a 39% premium relative to the five year historic average. Given current earnings estimates, we see limited upside risk to consensus. Xtep International Holdings Limited (Reuters: 1368.HK, Bloomberg: 1368 HK) Rmb in mn, year-end Dec FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E Company Data Revenue (Rmb mn) 4,343 4,778 5,295 5,814 6,354 Shares O/S (mn) 2,176 Net Profit (Rmb mn) 606 478 623 728 812 Market Cap (Rmb mn) 8,268 Diluted EPS (Rmb) 0.28 0.22 0.29 0.33 0.37 Market Cap ($ mn) 1,276 Recurring EPS (Rmb) 0.28 0.22 0.29 0.33 0.37 Price (HK$) 4.55 DPS (Rmb) 0.15 0.14 0.17 0.20 0.22 Date Of Price 03 May 16 Revenue growth (%) (21.7%) 10.0% 10.8% 9.8% 9.3% Free Float(%) 39.7% Net Profit growth (%) (25.2%) (21.1%) 30.2% 17.0% 11.5% 3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 4.91 Recurring profit growth (25.2%) (21.1%) 30.2% 17.0% 11.5% 3M - Avg daily val (HK$ mn) 19.00 EPS growth (%) (25.7%) (21.1%) 32.2% 14.5% 11.5% 3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) 2.4 ROE 13.8% 10.4% 13.0% 14.5% 15.1% HSI 21,067.05 ROA 8.8% 6.3% 7.8% 8.8% 9.4% Exchange Rate 7.76 P/E (x) 13.8 17.5 13.2 11.5 10.3 Price Target End Date 31-Dec-16 P/BV (x) 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 Price Target (HK$) 4.50 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.3 11.6 8.9 8.1 7.1 Dividend Yield 3.9% 3.6% 4.4% 5.3% 5.8% Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. See page 9 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. www.jpmorganmarkets.com Shen Li, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research (852) 2800 8523 03 May 2016 [email protected] Key catalyst for the stock price: Upside risks to our view: Downside risks to our view: Upcoming trade fair sales, with (1) Higher than expected improvement in sales; (1) Significant downturn in the retail environment; (2) expectation for continued (2) Significant improvement with respect to gross Increase in the competitive environment for sportswear in improvement in sales/operational margins; China; momentum (3) Significant reduction of the competitive (3) Significant loss of market share; environment for sportswear in China. (4) Higher than expected sourcing costs; (5) Higher than expected capex expenditure. Key financial metrics FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E Valuation and price target basis Revenues (LC) 5,295 5,814 6,354 6,783 Our Dec-16 PT of HK$4.50 is based on a P/E of ~10x our earnings forecasts for year ending Dec-17. Our target P/E is slightly above Revenue growth (%) 11% 10% 9% 7% EBITDA (LC) 892 1,021 1,135 1,232 historical average one-year forward P/E for Xtep over the past five EBITDA margin (%) 17% 18% 18% 18% years. We apply this premium to reflect ongoing sales momentum. Tax rate (%) 29% 29% 29% 29% Net profit (LC) 623 728 812 887 EPS (LC) 0.29 0.33 0.37 0.40 EPS growth (%) 32% 15% 12% 9% Xtep – One-year Forward P/E DPS (LC) 0.17 0.20 0.22 0.24 BVPS (LC) 2.22 2.37 2.53 2.70 Operating cash flow (LC mn) 793 102 802 813 12 Free cash flow (LC mn) 676 -23 702 735 Interest cover (X) NM NM NM NM Net margin (%) 12% 13% 13% 13% Sales/assets (X) 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x Debt/equity (%) 33% 31% 29% 27% 8 Net debt/equity (%) -41% -31% -34% -37% ROE (%) 13% 14% 15% 15% Key model assumptions FY16E FY17E FY18E Sales Growth 9.8% 9.3% 6.8% 4 Gross Margin 42.8% 43.3% 43.5% May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Operating Margin 16.6% 16.9% 17.3% Source: Company data and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg JPMe vs. consensus, change in estimates Sensitivity analysis EBITDA EPS EPS FY16E FY17E Sensitivity to FY16E FY16E JPMe old 0.32 0.36 5% decrease in sales growth -5.7% -6.2% JPMe new 0.33 0.37 1pp decrease in Gross margin -5.4% -5.7% % chg 4.5% 3.3% 1pp decrease in EBIT margin -5.4% -5.7% Consensus 0.32 0.36 Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Comparative metrics CMP Mkt Cap P/E EV/EBITDA P/BV YTD LC $Mn FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E Stock perf. Belle 4.5 4,902.4 8.0x 8.1x 4.4x 4.4x 1.2x 1.1x -22.5% Parkson 0.9 291.1 12.2x 10.3x 5.4x 4.9x 0.3x 0.3x -15.8% China Dongxiang 1.6 1,120.2 12.8x 11.2x 3.0x 2.3x 0.7x 0.7x -15.1% Li Ning 3.4 814.1 17.2x 11.3x 6.2x 4.3x 1.6x 1.4x -20.2% Anta 19.9 6,414.6 17.8x 15.4x 11.3x 9.5x 4.4x 3.9x -4.7% Golden Eagle 9.0 1,937.1 14.3x 13.6x 10.0x 9.4x 2.1x 2.0x -4.4% Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Prices are as of May 3, 2016 close. 2 Shen Li, CFA Asia Pacific Equity Research (852) 2800 8523 03 May 2016 [email protected] We downgrade our recommendation for Xtep from OW to N for the following reasons: Following weak update reported by Peak Sport, we think upside risk to consensus forecasts for Xtep is relatively limited. With sales environment weakening, investors may turn more attention to ongoing growth in receivables days. The Xtep share price has increased ~80% since the start of July (v HSI -12%). While the stock still only trades at ~12x P/E, this still represents a 39% premium relative to the five-year historic average. Following weak update reported by Peak Sport, we think upside risk to consensus forecasts for Xtep is relatively limited Peak Sport (1968 HK, Not Covered) reported its operational update overnight. Trade fair orders for 4Q16 recorded low-single-digit decline. This compares to low-teens growth for 3Q16. The company attributed the slowdown to warmer weather and weak consumer sentiment.
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