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Company Report Hong Kong Equity Research Monday, November 16, 2015 China Merchants Securities (HK) Co., Ltd. Company Report Hong Kong Equity Research 361 Degrees (1361 HK) Eugene MAK Lewis WONG 852-3189 6343 852-3189 6160 Attractive risk/return driven by strong sportswear sector [email protected] [email protected] ■ 361 Degrees (361) has been relatively overlooked despite the current sportswear sector upcycle due to company specific risks. WHAT’S NEW ■ We view the realization of the risks to be unlikely and hence 361 Assume coverage to be undervalued, making it a potential laggard play ■ Attractive risk/reward given 9x FY16E P/E vs 13x sector average BUY and earnings growth outlook. Assume coverage with BUY rating Previous N/A Riding the sportswear upcycle wave Price HK$2.99 We expect a FY15E/16E/17E earnings growth of 20%/11%/14% YoY with 12-month Target Price HK$3.61 (+21%) upcoming share price catalysts from i) FY15 annual results and ii) double (Potential upside) digit sales fair value YoY growth figures to be maintained for its upcoming 3Q/4Q16 sales fairs. Earnings growth will be driven by FY5E/16E/17E Previous N/A revenue growth of 11%/14%/13% YoY as China’s sportswear sector Price Performance continues to turnaround from increased consumer demand (from (%) increased demand in sports performance products as health awareness 60 1361 HSI Index grows and participation in sports by the Chinese increases). As one of the leading Chinese sportswear brands, we expect 361 to continue to 40 benefit from this sector upcycle which can be seen through successive 20 improvements in 361’s SSSG (1Q14’s 2% to 3Q15’s 8%) and sales fair figures while channel inventory remains healthy at 4x inventory-to- 0 monthly sales. Our FY15E-17E forecast is -1%/-12%/-18% vs consensus. -20 Valuation punished by unlikely to be realized risks Nov/14 Mar/15 Jun/15 Oct/15 Given the certainty in the sportswear sector’s upcycle and 361’s earnings Source: Bigdata outlook, we consider 361’s risk/return attractive despite risk factors (high % 1m 6m 12m receivable days of >160, weaker brand positioning than several HK-listed 1361 HK 7.1 (0.0) 36.9 HSI 0.7 (16.5) (4.4) peers and possible share placement) which is unlikely to be realized yet the market has still punished 361 through its valuation. Sector: Textile & Garment Assume coverage with BUY rating, TP HK$3.61 Hang Seng Index 22396 TP based on an 11x FY16E target P/E, 1SD above 361’s 8x forward HSCEI 10181 mean P/E, which is justified by the sportswear sector’s current upcycle Key Data turnaround. Our target P/E is still conservative as it is below the current 52-week range (HK$) 1.7-3.35 sportswear sector average of 13x P/E which is justified by the company Market cap (HK$ mn) 6182 specific risks. In all, we assume coverage with BUY on attractive Avg. daily volume (mn) 2.39 risk/return given positive earnings outlook and undemanding valuation. BVPS (RMB) 2.4 Shareholding Structure Financials Ding Wuhao 18.27% RMB mn 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Ding Huihuang 17.41% Ding Huirong 17.41% 3,583 3,906 4,336 4,922 5,546 Revenue Wang Jiabi 9.38% Growth (%) -27.6 9.0 11.0 13.5 12.7 No. of shares outstanding (mn) 2068 Recurring net profit 169 422 507 561 638 Free float 28.77% -74.9 149.1 20.2 10.6 13.6 Growth (%) Related Research 0.08 0.20 0.25 0.27 0.31 Recurring EPS (RMB) 1. Xtep International (1368 HK) 2Q16 sales fair takeaways: DPS (RMB) 0.04 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.12 Confident on FY16E outlook, “BUY” October 02, 2015 2. Xtep International (1368 HK) 1H15 earnings up 21% YoY, 30.2 12.1 10.1 9.1 8.0 P/E (x) - recurring stronger 2H15E ahead, “BUY” August 21, 2015 P/B (x) 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 3. Xtep International (1368 HK) Successive improvements continue, “BUY” July 08, 2015 ROE (%) 4.5 8.1 9.6 9.6 9.9 Sources: Company data, CMS (HK) estimates Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. China Merchants Securities (CMS) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. CMS research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. CMS research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer. 1 Monday, November 16, 2015 China sportswear sector continues to improve and so will 361 Degrees We are currently experiencing a turnaround in the China sportswear sector driven by several factors coinciding. The first major contribution is due to current market supply returning back to a healthy level which can be seen through channel inventory of all major sportswear brands returning to a normal healthy level (4-5 months’ worth of inventory-to-monthly retail sales, consolidation of China sportswear market share, consolidation of POS of individual sportswear brands. The second major contribution is the improvement in the brands themselves in terms of technology, brand building, store design, customer service and management quality. Lastly, with major players returning back to health plus competitive products, we have a new growth driver in demand of sports products which is the increase emphasis of health and participation in exercise by the Chinese. According to CEIC and Euromonitor, China’s sportswear market is expected to grow from RMB140bn in 2014 to RMB180bn by 2017 equating to a 3-year CAGR of 8%. Given this expected growth, we believe most HK-listed sportswear brands such as 361 will be able to outperform this annual growth as market consolidation continues as smaller less known brands lose out in competition given deficiencies in their smaller scales and inferior products. According to Euromonitor, most HK-listed Chinese sportswear brands have grown in market share since 2013 (361 market share increased from 3% in 2013 to 4% in 2014). Figure 1: China’s sportswear historical and expected market size RMB bn 200 35.0% 180.3 180 31.5% 166.5 30.0% 160 153.5 141.8 139.2 142 25.0% 140 130.6 134.7 115.4 20.0% 120 103.9 100 15.0% 79 13.2% 80 11.1% 10.0% 8.6% 8.1% 8.5% 8.3% 60 5.4% 5.0% 40 0.0% 20 -1.8% -3.2% 0 -5.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E China sportswear market size YoY change Source: Euromonitor, CEIC, CMS (HK) Figure 2: 2013 and 2014 China sportswear brands market share 2013 2014 Nike, 13% Nike, 13% Adidas, 12% Adidas, 13% Others, 48% Others, 56% Anta, 6% Anta, 10% Li Ning , 4% Xtep, 3% Li Ning , 5% Xtep, 5% Peak, 3% 361 Degrees, 3% Peak, 2% 361 Degrees, 4% Source: Euromonitor, CMS (HK) To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO> 2 Monday, November 16, 2015 China sportswear market inflection point confirmed, recovery just the beginning, listed brands benefit The growth of China’s sportswear wear market resumed growth with an inflection point in late 2013 to 2014 (refer to figure 1) as China’s sportswear market resumed growth from RMB135bn in 2013 to RMB142bn in 2014. Data from listed sportswear companies indicated that the growth was driven by the recovery of most listed sportswear brands which confirmed that it was a sector turnaround rather than purely company specific as all major listed sportswear brands reported a turnaround in revenue, SSSG and sales fair orders during that period. Figure 3: China’s sportswear historical revenue growth Source: company data, CMS (HK) Figure 4: Major listed sportswear brand historical sales fair sales growth (YoY) Anta Li Ning China Dongxiang 361 Degrees Peak Xtep Guirenniao (2020 HK) (2331 HK) (3818 HK) (1361 HK) (1968 HK) (1368 HK) (603555 SH) 1Q11 23% 12% 12% 20% 24% N/A 2Q11 21% 0% 3% 23% 24% N/A 3Q11 20% -14% -40% 27% 21% N/A 4Q11 25% -1% -40% N/A 1Q12 0% to 5% 0% to 5% -59% 23% -ve 15% N/A 2Q12 0% to 5% 0% N/A 6% N/A 3Q12 -ve high SD -ve mid SD -ve mid DD 2% -ve 15% N/A 4Q12 -ve low teens -ve high teens -ve 15% 0% 1Q13 -30% to -20% N/A N/A -23% 0% -15% to -20% 2Q13 -25% to -15% N/A N/A -ve 20% to 30% -15% to -20% 3Q13 -20% to -10% N/A N/A -19% N/A -20% 4Q13 -15% to -5% N/A N/A -17% N/A -15% to -17% 1Q14 +ve high SD N/A N/A -8% N/A -ve high SD -13% 2Q14 +ve high SD N/A N/A N/A -ve mid SD 3Q14 +ve high SD N/A N/A -7% 15% -ve low SD 2% 4Q14 +ve low DD N/A N/A 8% 15% 0% 1Q15 +ve low DD N/A 40% to 60% 11% 15% +ve low SD +ve SD 2Q15 +ve low DD N/A 15% +ve low SD +ve SD 3Q15 +ve low DD N/A 20% to 30% 16% 15% +ve low SD +ve SD 4Q15 +ve low DD +ve low teens 18% 15% +ve low SD 1Q16 +ve low DD +ve mid teens 30% to 40% 15% 15% 10% 2Q16 +ve low DD +ve high teens 15% 15% 10% Note: SD means single digit % and DD means double digits % Source: Company, CMS (HK) To access our research reports on the Bloomberg terminal, type CMHK <GO> 3 Monday, November 16, 2015 Figure 5: Major listed sportswear brand historical SSSG Anta Li Ning China Dongxiang 361 Degrees Peak Xtep (2020 HK) (2331 HK) (3818 HK) (1361 HK) (1968 HK) (1368 HK) 1Q11 5% to 10% 0% to 5% 5% 15% 13% 7% 2Q11 5% to 10% 0% to 5% -5% to 0% 14% 12% 15% 3Q11 4% to 6% 0% to 5% -ve 18% 6% 15% 4Q11 0% -ve low SD -ve 14% 2% 15% 1Q12 -ve low SD -ve low SD -ve 9% 0% 15% 2Q12 -ve low SD -ve -ve 7% -19% N/A 3Q12 -ve low SD -ve -2% 5% 0% N/A 4Q12 -ve low SD -ve Mid SD 4% 0% N/A 1Q13 0% N/A Low SD 4% 0% N/A 2Q13 0% N/A N/A -2% 0% 0% 3Q13 0% N/A N/A -1% Low SD 0% 4Q13 High SD N/A N/A 0% Low SD 0% 1Q14 High SD N/A N/A 2% Low SD N/A 2Q14 Low DD N/A N/A 3% Low SD Low Sd 3Q14 High SD N/A N/A 5% Low SD Mid SD 4Q14 High SD N/A N/A 6% Low SD Mid SD 1Q15 High SD Mid SD 23% 6% Mid SD Mid SD 2Q15 High SD Low DD 22% 7% Mid SD High SD 3Q15 Mid to high SD Mid SD 8% High SD High SD Note: SD means single digit % and DD means double digits % Source: Company, CMS (HK) Realization of risk factors unlikely as sector continues its upcycle turnaround i) High receivable days will continue but unlikely to affect cashflow of the group severely: 361 historically had high receivable days (+160 days) which was due to its past policy to extend receivable days to support rapid expansion of distributers to gain market share during the late-2000s to 2012.
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