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Pou Sheng International (3813 HK) Pou Sheng International (3813 HK) Rating Maintain BUY Attracting more investors’ attention Target price HK$3. 10 From HK$2.50 Current price HK$2.51 Upside.23.5% In-line 1H16 result; GPM a surprise on lower retail discounts and 23 August 2016 healthy channel inventory Pou Sheng’s (PS) 1H16 results was in-line with our estimates with both Hayman Chiu revenue and net profit accounted for 50% and 53.5% of our FY16E estimates. [email protected] The group’s GPM soared 290bps Yoy /140bps QoQ to 36.3%, which is higher (852) 2235 7677 than our FY16E estimate (35% GPM). The GPM hike was mainly driven by healthy channel inventory (~4-5 months) and hence a better retail discount ( ~20% off in 1H16 vs. mid 20’s in FY15) and. The SG&A ratio stood at 29.7% Trading Data of sales in 1H16 (vs.29.4% in 1Q16), which was driven by new store openings 52-Week Range (HK$) 2.72/0.97 in 1H16 (net adds: 386 in 1H16). We still expect PS’s SG&A ratio to remain at 3 Mth Avg Daily Vol (m) 6.53 29-30% of sales in FY16E/17E driven by international brands’ expansion plan No of Shares (m) 5,187.67 in China. Management targets 600-800 net openings by end-2016, in which Market Cap (HK$m) 13,384.2 will be Adidas and Nike driven. Major Shareholders (%) Yue Yuen (61.27%) Auditors Deloitte Nike and Adidas products’ demand still strong; New brand Result Due 3Q16: Nov 2016 partnership continue to drive growth Company description Nike and Adidas continue to account for ~80% of Pou Sheng’s revenue, and Established in 1989 and listed in June 2008, Pou we expect both companies would continue deliver at least mid-teens growth in Sheng (PS) is one of the leading sportswear revenue in the medium term which will be driven by i) new store openings ; ii) distributors in China with ~25% market share. In revamp plan with distributors to enhance store operating efficiency, iii) addition to Nike and Adidas, the company adopts well-received response of leisure sportswear as well as functional sportswear. multi-brand strategy and distributes Puma, Meanwhile, we continue to believe new brand partnerships with Sketchers, Converse, Under Armour and PONY products etc. Under Armour (UA US) and GEOX etc would also help through their As of June 2016, Pou Sheng’s retail network increasing presence in China. comprises of 8,222 stores, in which ~62% are directly operated stores. First ever interim dividend declared, attracting more investors’ attention expected Price Chart Pou Sheng declared an interim dividend of HK$0.02 per share (24% payout ratio), it is the first ever interim dividend proposed by the company. Given its expected strengthened financial position (lower AR & inventory turnover days) and stable CAPEX which leads to improving free operating cash flow, we believe the 24% dividend payout ratio will be sustained, hence attracting more investors’ attention. Raise earnings estimates, Maintain Buy to ride on international brands’ expansion in China and improving operating efficiency Sources: Bloomberg, CIRL We raised PS’s FY16E/17E EPS by 8.2% and 2.9% respectively, led by GPM expansion through lower retail discount and new product sales. The rise in GPM will more than compensate the high SG&A ratio during this period (29-30% of sales). We believe the higher SG&A ratio reflects international brands’ confidence in China sports market, which would facilitate future growth in the long run. With EPS expected to grow at 50.0% CAGR in FY15-17E, its FY17E 11.8x P/E (~18.6% discount to international peers) still looks undemanding. We maintain Pou Sheng’s rating at BUY and raise PS’s TP from HK$2.50 to HK$3.10 based on 14.5x forward PE (par to international peers’ average) and FY17E EPS. Page 1 / 7 Exhibit 1: Earnings Forecast Revision for FY16E & FY17E earnings Exhibit 1: FY16 (old) FY16 (new) Diff FY17 (old) FY17 (new) Diff RevenuePork 2,530 2,530 0.0% 2,783 2,783 0.0% products GP 886 898 1.4% 988 994 0.6% sold in supermark GPM 35.0% 35.5% 50bps 35.5% 35.7% 20bps et counters Net Profit 113 122 8.2% 140 144 2.9% EPS 0.021 0.023 8.2% 0.027 0.028 2.9% Source: CIRL estimates Exhibit 2:Pou Sheng’s SSSG outpaced Belle’s in last 4 quarters on currency neutral basis Exhibit16.0 1: 18.0 14.0 16.0 Pork 14.0 15.3 12.0 14.0 14.4 12.4 products10.0 10.0 12.0 10.0 11.0 10.9 9.0 10.0 sold8.0 in 8.0 8.0 7.8 8.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 7.0 supermark5.0 5.0 6.0 6.5 6.0 6.2 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.3 3.0 4.0 4.5 et 2.0counters 3.6 2.0 2.5 0.0 (1.0)(1.0) 0.0 (2.0) (2.0) (2.4) (2.0) FY14 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2Q13 2Q16 (4.0) 4Q12 (4.0) Pou Sheng's SSSG (Yoy%, Year ended 31 Dec) Belle's sportswear SSSG (Yoy%) Source: Company data, CIRL Exhibit 3: Pou Sheng’s GPM hit historical high in 2Q16 on lower retail discounts Exhibit38.0 1: 36.3 Pork36.0 35.8 34.9 products34.0 33.4 33.2 sold32.0 in 31.1 30.5 30.8 30.3 30.9 30.3 29.8 30.0 29.6 29.5 29.7 supermark 29.7 28.9 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.0 28.3 et counters 27.4 26.0 24.0 22.0 20.0 1Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q11 3Q11 5Q12 2Q13 3Q14 4Q14 2Q16 Pou Sheng's GPM (%) Source: Company data, CIRL Page 2 / 7 Exhibit 4: Adidas revenue and Nike’s order in China shows upward momentum Exhibit35.0 1: 30.0 30.0 Pork30.0 30.0 27.0 27.0 28.0 26.0 25.0 23.0 24.0 products25.0 22.0 22.0 21.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 sold in 19.0 15.0 16.0 superm15.0 ark13.0 13.0 15.0 13.0 13.0 10.0 9.0 et10.0 counters 11.0 11.0 11.0 6.0 8.0 5.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 6.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (3.0) (5.0) (6.0)(7.0) (10.0) Nike Adidas Sources: Company Data, CIRL Exhibit 5: Direct operation currently accounts for >60% of Pou Sheng’s store counts Exhibit100% 1: 90% Pork 2,893 3,091 80% 2,276 2,263 2,689 products70% 60% sold in 50% supermark40% et30% counters3,659 3,665 4,263 4,943 5,131 20% 10% 0% FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 1H16 Direct operation Franchised Source: Company data, CIRL Exhibit 6: Grand opening of the first GEOX brand concept store in Qingdao in end April 2016 Exhibit 1: Pork products sold in supermark et counters Sources: Company Data Page 3 / 7 Exhibit 7: Pou Sheng’s new sales channel – Eslite Spectrm YY multi-brand store opened in Suzhou in November 2015 Exhibit 1: Pork products sold in supermark et counters Sources: Company Data Exhibit 8: Pou Sheng’s new multi-brand stores Exhibit 1: Pork products sold in supermark et counters Sources: Company Data Page 4 / 7 Exhibit 9: Financial Summary IncomeExhibit statement 1: Cash flow Year to Mar (US$ Mn) FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E Year to Mar (US$ Mn) FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E RevenuePork 1,777 1,981 2,300 2,530 2,783 Pre-tax profit (31) 20 86 163 192 Gross profit (reported) 514 581 766 898 994 Taxes paid (9) (17) (14) (15) (18) EBITDAproducts 30 63 125 203 234 Depreciation & amortization 42 32 31 32 34 Depreciation 42 32 31 32 34 Associates & Others 69 54 41 39 43 EBITsold in (12) 31 93 171 201 CFO bef. WC change 72 89 144 219 252 Net interest income (exp.) (12) (6) (6) (6) (7) Change in working cap (34) 21 53 (5) (59) Associatessupermark (6) (4) (1) (1) (1) Cashflow from operation 38 110 197 214 193 Exceptionals/others 0 0 0 0 0 CAPEX (19) (28) (47) (50) (50) Profitet counters before tax (31) 20 86 163 192 Free cash flow 19 81 150 164 143 Tax expenses (8) (14) (24) (43) (50) Dividends 0 0 0 0 29 Minority interest 0 2 (2) (2) (2) Balance sheet adj. (24) (29) (23) (147) (195) Net profit (38) 5 64 122 144 Sharse issued 0 (1) 0 0 0 Dividends 0 0 0 0 29 Others 0 0 0 0 0 Diluted EPS (RMB) -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 Net cash flow (5) 51 127 17 (23) Net cash (debt) start (199) (204) (153) (26) (9) Balance sheet Net cash (debt) at year-end -204 -153 -26 -9 -31 Year to Mar (US$ Mn) FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E Cash & equiv 64 44 44 64 41 Ratios Trade receivables 349 316 313 344 401 Year to Mar (US$ Mn) FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E Other receivables 0 0 0 0 0 Growth rate (%) Inventories 632 597 595 620 680 Revenue -18.6% 11.4% 16.1% 10.0% 10.0% Other current assets 23 0 1 1 1 EBITDA -21.8% 109.5% 98.1% 62.9% 15.5% Fixed assets 96 94 107 125 143 EBIT -55.0% -350.6% 200.4% 83.2% 17.4% Intangible assets 201 196 183 176 168 Net profit -43.4% -112.1% 1287.4% 89.2% 18.3% Investment, associates etc 95 80 59 60 59 Fully diluted EPS -53.4% -112.2% 1298.1% 90.7% 19.3% Total assets 1,460 1,328 1,301 1391 1492 Margins (%) Gross margin (reported) 28.9% 29.3% 33.3% 35.5% 35.7% Account payables 222 207 309 310 340 EBITDA 1.7% 3.2% 5.4% 8.0% 8.4% Other payables 0 0 11 11 11 EBIT -0.7% 1.6% 4.1% 6.8% 7.2% Short-term debt 218 197 70 73 72 Net margin -2.2% 0.2% 2.8% 4.8% 5.2% Other current liabs 22 2 6 6 6 Other ratios Long-term debts 50 0 0 0 0 ROE (%) -4.2% 0.5% 7.4% 13.3% 14.5% Deferred tax and others 51 48 28 28 28 ROA (%) -2.6% 0.3% 4.9% 9.1% 10.0% Other long-term liabs 0 0 0 0 0 Net gearing (%) 22.7% 17.5% 3.0% 0.9% 3.0% Total liabilities 563 453 425 429 458 Interest coverage (x) 1.0 -4.9 -16.1 -26.8 -28.6 Receivables days 69.1 61.3 49.9 47.4 48.8 Share capital 7 7 7 7 7 Payables days 64.1 53.9 73.6 69.4 69.4 Reserves 874 854 862 948 1021 Inventory days 182.5 155.7 141.5 138.7 138.7 Shareholders' equity 881 861 869 955 1028 Effective tax rate (%) 25.6% -68.1% -27.6% -26.5% -26.0% Minorities 16 15 7 7 7 Total equity 897 875 876 962 1035 Net cash (debt) -204 -153 -26 -9 -31 Sources: Company Data, CIRL estimates Page 5 / 7 Exhibit 10: Peers comparison bloomberg Mkt Cap Price Share Price Movement (%) PER (x) Yield (%) Exhibit 1: code (HKD mn) (HKD) 3M YTD FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E PRCPork - Sportswear peers LI NING CO LTD 2331 HK 9,539 4.91 52.0 16.9 -0.3 -0.6 454.4 19.9 12.6 0.0%
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