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Research Report (19.02.2013)

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Research Report (19.02.2013) Pou Sheng International (3813 HK) Rating BUY Maintain Target Price HKD 2.74 From HK$2.77 Omni-channel model continues to pay off Current price HKD 1.74 Upside: +57.7% % FY20 net profit slight miss due to lower OPM in 4Q20 Company Update PS FY20 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders dropped 5.7%/64.1% Yoy to USD3,709mn/USD 44mn respectively. PS net profit came 22 April 2021 6.4% lower than our estimates. In 4Q20, PS GM picked up for the 2 consecutive quarter and reached 31.6% (+1.2ppts QoQ) , while OPM was slightly down to 3.1% (vs. 3.5%/3.6% in 3Q20 and 2Q20) due to higher rentals for larger-scale Hayman Chiu stores, as well as online business related expenses. [email protected] PS cash conversion cycle shortened to 142 days (vs. 156 days in FY19), in RMB (852) 2235 7677 terms, mainly driven by lower inventory turnover days at 143 (vs. 150 days) as PS proactively reduce channel inventory (inventory balance slipped ~27% to Trading Data RMB5,870mn by end-2020). PS slashed their total borrowings by 46% Yoy (vs. 39% in 1H20), hence their net gearing ratio was significantly lowered to 2.6% (vs. 52-Week Range (HK$) 2.34/1.40 18.7%/38.1% in 3Q20/FY19). PS net closed further 217 stores in 4Q20, in which 3 Mth Avg Daily Vol (m) 3.68 direction operation store accounted for 70% of total store closure. No of Shares (m) 5,356.9 Market Cap (HK$m) 9,320.9 PS would still benefit from both Nike and Adidas continued expansion in Greater Major Shareholders (%) Yue Yuen (62.41%) China. Management sticked to their OPM guidance at 7% in FY21E. We expect Auditors Deloitte this would be mainly driven by mid-teens sales growth (incl. sales growth from various 3rd party channels such as Tmall, JD, Vipshop etc), improved sales Result Due 1Q21E: May 2021 efficiency from offline channel (i.e. increased contribution of large size stores to drive sales, FY19/FY20 accounted for 9%/13% of directly operated stores), Company description increased omni-channel sales contribution high teens, accompanied by sequential GM improvement. PS targets to open 300-500 stores in FY21E ,after Established in 1989 and listed in June 2008, Pou having closed down >750 stores (mainly direct operation stores) in FY20. Sheng (PS) is one of the leading sportswear distributors in China with ~25% market share. In Good start in FY21E;Omni-channel strategy continues to pay off addition to Nike and Adidas, the company adopts multi-brand strategy and distributes Puma, PS 4Q20 SSSG drop further narrowed to 1.0%, and in 2M21 SSSG further Converse, Under Armour and PONY products etc. accelerated to high 20’s Yoy, which also drove sales grew ~46% Yoy in USD terms (or +13% vs. 2M19). We believe this was mainly driven by i) lower As of Dec 31, 2020, Pou Sheng’s retail network inventory level and hence lower retail discount, and ii) China’s economy comprises of 9,075 stores, in which ~58% are continue to pick up in 4Q20 and stabilized COVID-19 help consumer directly operated stores. sentiment. Pou Sheng’s omni-channel revenue grew 27.6% Yoy and accounted for 17% of Price Chart total revenue, in which B2C sales contribution stood at 73% by end 4Q20 (vs. HK$ 9M20). We attributed the encouraging result to Product Sharing Platform (PSP) 3.5 which currently cover >60% of direct brick & mortar stores and regional 3.0 rd warehouses to share inventory and provide data to 3 party platforms (incl. 2.5 T-Mall, JD, Vipshop. Newly launched WeChat Mini stores took up ~2% of B2C 2.0 sales with better ASP, conversion and return rate) to drive online traffic. We 1.5 continue to believe improvement in operating efficiency would be achieved 1.0 through i) increasing PSP coverage, ii) enhancing online business through 0.5 YYSports platform and co-operating with strategic partners, hence 0.0 achieving economy of scale to drive PS earnings/margin in the long run. Jul-20 Jul-18 Jul-19 Oct-20 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr-19 Jan-20 Jan-19 Apr-20 Jan-21 Apr-18 Fine-tune FY21E/22E EPS on lower GM forecast; Maintain BUY with new TP at HK$2.74, beware of near term price volatility Sources: Bloomberg, CIRL We fine tuned Pou Sheng’s FY21E/22E EPS by -10.5%/+1.0% respectively mainly on lower GM assumption. PS is trading at undemanding FY21E 7.7x P/E (>1 s.d. below 5-year average and ~62% discount to Topsports), We believe PS still deserve a re-rating story as their operating efficiency and profitability would further improve, after having launched various initiatives. We derived Pou Sheng’s new TP at HK$2.74, hence implying FY21E 12.4x target PE, we maintain Pou Sheng’s rating at BUY. However, we advise investors to be aware of near term price volatility after global brands (incl. Nike, Adidas and H&M) refused to buy Xinjiang cotton. Page 1 / 6 Exhibit 1: We fine tuned Pou Sheng’s FY21E/22E EPS forecasts Exhibit(USD Mn) 1: FY21E (old) FY21E (new) Diff FY22E (old) FY22E (new) Diff 4,642 4,488 -3.3% 5,345 5,199 -2.7% PorkRevenue productsGP 1,578 1,495 -5.3% 1,823 1,752 -3.9% sold in GPM 34.0% 33.3% -70 bps 34.1% 33.7% -160 bps supermark et 171 153 -10.5% 201 203 1.0% Net Profit counters EPS 0.032 0.029 -10.5% 0.038 0.038 1.0% Source: CIRL estimates Exhibit 2: Pou Sheng’s 4Q20 SSSG drop further narrowed (left), Nike’s latest quarterly sales (end- Feb) in Greater China accelerated 20.0 14.0 12.3 60.0 10.0 10.0 10.1 8.09.0 8.0 8.6 8.98.7 8.4 6.0 7.5 6.0 50.0 5.0 5.0 5.9 5.6 4.2 (1.0) 3.0 1.9 1.5 2.2 1.9 0.0 (1.0) 0.4 -1.0 40.0 1Q14 3Q18 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q13 (2.0) 30.0 (10.0) -13.0 20.0 -17.8 (20.0) 10.0 (30.0) 0.0 -32.5 (10.0) (40.0) (20.0) Pou Sheng's SSSG (Yoy%, Year ended 31 Dec) Nike (Greater China growth %, ex-FX) Footwear Apparel Euqipment Source: Company data, CIRL Exhibit 3: PS monthly sales gradually back to pre-COVID-19 level Exhibit 1: 500 Pork 450 products sold400 in 350 supermark et300 counters 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source: Company data, CIRL Page 2 / 6 Exhibit 4: Pou Sheng’s total store reduced by >700 in FY20 and mainly from direct operations Exhibit 1: Pork products sold in supermarket counters Source: Company data, CIRL (***1Q18-3Q20 growth rate are on QoQ basis) Exhibit 5: Peers’ profitability comparison Exhibit 1: bloomberg ROE (%) ROA (%) Net Gearing (%) FY20 code FY20A FY20A FY20A GM (%) OM (%) PM (%) Pork PRC - Sportswear brands/OEMs productsANTA SPORTS PROD 2020 HK 23.0 10.9 (13.8) 58% 26% 15% LI NING CO LTD 2331 HK 20.9 12.2 (69.9) 49% 15% 12% XTEP INTL 1368 HK 7.4 4.2 (15.2) 39% 12% 6% sold361 in DEGREES 1361 HK 5.9 3.2 (58.8) 38% 13% 8% HONMA GOLF LTD 6858 HK (2.8) (1.8) 0.8 51% 1% -3% supermarkYUE YUEN IND 551 HK N/A N/A #N/A N/A 22% 2% -1% Average 14.3 7.6 (31.4) 47% 13% 10% et counters International - Sportswear peers NIKE INC -CL B NKE US 33.4 10.4 52.5 43% 8% 7% ADIDAS AG ADS GR 7.9 2.5 20.6 50% 4% 2% LULULEMON ATH LULU US 38.0 24.1 (18.1) 56% 22% 16% PUMA SE PUM GR 5.0 2.0 29.1 47% 4% 2% UNDER ARMO-C UA US (6.7) (2.6) 29.1 48% -14% -12% COLUMBIA SPORTSW COLM US 7.0 4.5 (20.4) 49% 5% 4% ASICS CORP 7936 JP (10.4) (4.5) 32.8 46% -1% -5% MIZUNO CORP 8022 JP 5.0 3.1 0.9 41% 4% 3% Average 12.6 7.2 15.8 48% 8% 5% Sportswear distributors JD SPORTS FASHIO JD/ LN 33.4 11.4 121.2 47% 7% 4% TOPSPORTS INTERN 6110 HK 38.2 12.5 32.6 42% 10% 7% DICK'S SPORTING DKS US 18.1 6.1 175.0 29% 4% 3% FOOT LOCKER INC FL US 23.2 11.1 97.5 32% 8% 6% ABC-MART INC 2670 JP 11.5 10.0 (54.1) 53% 16% 11% FRASERS GROUP PL FRAS LN 6.9 2.5 77.3 42% 3% 2% ACCENT GROUP LTD AX1 AU 14.2 7.1 84.7 57% 11% 7% CALERES INC CAL US 15.3 4.6 182.6 41% 4% 2% GENESCO INC GCO US 9.4 4.4 116.8 48% 4% 3% Average 34.0 13.9 92.6 41% 9% 6% Source: Bloomberg, CIRL Page 3 / 6 Exhibit 6: Financial Summary IncomeExhibit statement 1: Cash flow Year to Dec (US$ Mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Year to Dec (US$ Mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E RevenuePork 3,933 3,709 4,488 5,199 6,121 Pre-tax profit 177 63 212 282 344 Gross profit (reported) 1,342 1,133 1,495 1,752 2,063 Taxes paid (36) (49) (54) (52) (62) EBITDAproducts 295 188 280 357 429 Depreciation & amortization 84 93 29 30 32 Depreciation 84 93 29 30 32 Associates & Others 74 87 94 99 119 EBITsold in 211 94 251 327 397 CFO bef.
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