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Pou Sheng International (3813 HK) Pou Sheng Inter National Hong Kong Consumer Discretionary 14 March 2016 Pou Sheng International (3813 HK) Pou Sheng Inter national Target price: HKD2.00 Share price (11 Mar): HKD1.70 | Up/downside: +17.6% Initiation: standing on the shoulders of giants Adrian Chan, CFA (852) 2848 4427 Sector’s structural growth likely to drive sustainable earnings growth [email protected] Valuations look undemanding at 13.8x 2016E PER Anson Chan, CFA (852) 2532 4350 Initiating with a Buy (1) rating and 12-month target price of HKD2.0 [email protected] Investment case: Bridging the gap between two of the largest global Share price performance sportswear brands and one of the largest sportswear markets in the world, Pou (HKD) (%) Sheng looks well positioned to benefit from the fitness craze and “athleisure” 1.9 345 market in China as one of Nike and Adidas’s largest retail distributors in the 1.5 271 country. With the company having recovered to positive net profit territory in 1.2 198 0.8 124 2014 (after 2 years in the red), we expect robust demand for Nike/Adidas 0.4 50 products and operating leverage to drive robust earnings growth for Pou Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Sheng, leading to a 1.2pp rise in operating margin to 5.6% in 2017E, from Pou Sheng (LHS) Relative to HSI (RHS) 4.5% in 9M15, and a 30% EPS CAGR for 2015-17E. 12-month range 0.48-1.86 We like Pou Sheng for its status as a pure play on China sportswear, while Market cap (USDbn) 1.17 peer Belle International (1880 HK, Not rated) operates in the arguably more 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 2.00 Shares outstanding (m) 5,368 challenging ladies footwear segment in China. We are also upbeat on Pou Major shareholder Yue Yuen (61.3%) Sheng’s expansion of its multi-brand stores and sport city concept stores in China, given its strong global brand portfolio (including Under Armour and Financial summary (USD) Skechers). Year to 31 Dec 15E 16E 17E Revenue (m) 2,304 2,490 2,724 Operating profit (m) 102 130 151 The new management team that joined in 2013 has turned around the Net profit (m) 59 85 100 company’s operating performance, wound down prior loss-making Core EPS (fully-diluted) 0.011 0.016 0.019 JV/associates, and laid out a solid roadmap which we believe sets the EPS change (%) n.a. 43.8 17.3 Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (3.3) 0.2 (4.0) company up for sustainable growth in the short, medium and long term. PER (x) 19.8 13.8 11.8 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Catalysts: 1) Stronger-than-expected demand for brands under DPS 0.000 0.000 0.000 PBR (x) 1.3 1.2 1.1 distribution, 2) the introduction of new brands to China on a regional and/or EV/EBITDA (x) 12.6 9.5 8.2 ROE (%) 6.7 8.8 9.4 national exclusive distribution agreement, which would drive gross-margin expansion as well as give the company more control over discounting at Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts the retail level, 3) better-than-expected execution and sales efficiency of its multi-brand stores and sports city concept stores, and 4) potential to pay a dividend from 2017E onward, as profits continue to reach record highs and operating cash flow remains positive. Valuation: We initiate with a Buy (1) rating and 12-month target price of HKD2.0, based on a 16x 2016E PER. Valuations look undemanding at a 13.8x 2016E PER on a 30% EPS CAGR in 2015-17E. We believe the correction in the share price (down 10% from its peak) after posting weaker-than-expected December sales as well as CNY depreciation concerns, was overdone and presents a buying opportunity based on the company’s earnings growth trajectory. Risks: The biggest risk to our call involves currency. As Pou Sheng’s functional currency is the CNY and its reporting currency is in USD, our bearish house view on the USD/CNY leads us to believe there could be downward revisions as the market factors in more currency headwinds. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 23 Pou Sheng International (3813 HK): 14 March 2016 Table of contents Robust earnings growth trajectory ahead .............................................................. 6 Pure play on global sports brands; overhangs removed .....................................................6 Sector structural growth on rising sportswear demand .......................................................7 Top dogs and underdogs ...................................................................................................9 Winding down of JVs to boost earnings off a low base..................................................... 12 Solid game plan .......................................................................................................14 How Pou Sheng and Belle differ ............................................................................16 A pure play on the China sportswear theme .................................................................... 16 Diversified brand portfolio ................................................................................................ 16 Margins catching up; valuations look more attractive ....................................................... 16 Valuation and risks ..................................................................................................18 Undemanding valuation despite robust earnings growth .................................................. 18 Risks to our call ............................................................................................................... 18 Appendix ..................................................................................................................20 Company background ...................................................................................................... 20 2 Pou Sheng International (3813 HK): 14 March 2016 How do we justify our view? Growth outlook Valuation Earnings revisions Growth outlook Pou Sheng: net-profit forecasts We forecast Pou Sheng to record an earnings CAGR of USDm 30% from 2015-17E, driven by a top-line CAGR of 9% and 120 100 85 operating leverage. We expect its strong earnings growth 100 80 59 to be driven by the gross profit margin expansion on 60 higher ASP functional products, lower retail discounts as 40 well as sustained operating cost ratios and an absence of 20 5 0 JV losses. We also estimate the company’s operating (20) profit margin to improve strongly in 2015 to 4.4% (from (40) 1.7% in 2014). (60) 39 (80) 77 (100) 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts Valuation Nike and Adidas: 12-mo forward PER The stock is trading currently at a 2016E PER of around (x) 13.8x, based on our forecasts. While Pou Sheng’s 35 historical PER comparisons are of marginal use (due to it 30 only turning profitable in 2014), we highlight that Nike and Adidas have seen upward PER reratings over the past 3 25 years, on increasing demand for both functional and 20 leisure sportswear. 15 As Pou Sheng is one of Nike and Adidas’s largest 10 distributors in China, we expect a rerating of the stock in Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-11 Jun-15 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Sep-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Dec-12 Sep-13 Dec-13 Sep-14 Dec-14 Sep-15 Dec-15 the near term, with the China Sportswear Sector achieving NKE US ADS GR 3813 HK structural growth on the back of increasing sports Source: Bloomberg participation, operating leverage and the unwinding of loss-making JVs driving stronger-than-peer earnings growth. Earnings revisions Pou Sheng: Daiwa v. consensus EPS forecasts Our revenue forecasts for 2016-17E are 5% below the EPS (USD) Bloomberg consensus as we view the devaluation of the 0.025 CNY (per Daiwa’s house view) as an overhang, though we 0.020 expect operating profit margin recovery to offset the negative impacts of top-line growth in 2016. As such, our 0.015 2016E earnings estimate is in-line with consensus. 0.010 However, we expect the operating margin recovery to be less impactful in 2017E on a higher base, hence our 0.005 2017E earnings estimate is ~4% below consensus. 0.000 2015E 2016E 2017E Consensus Daiwa Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts 3 Pou Sheng International (3813 HK): 14 March 2016 Financial summary Key assumptions Year to 31 Dec 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Direct operated store SSSG (YoY%) n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.0 7.0 7.0 10.0 10.0 Staff costs (as % of revenue) n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.7 9.1 9.3 9.3 9.2 Rental costs (as % of revenue) n.a. n.a. n.a. 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.5 12.5 Self-operated stores n.a. n.a. n.a. 3,665 4,263 4,911 5,411 5,911 Franchise stores n.a. n.a. n.a. 2,263 2,689 2,739 2,839 2,939 Profit and loss (USDm) Year to 31 Dec 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Retail business n.a. n.a. n.a. 1,703 1,964 2,304 2,490 2,724 Brand licensee n.a. n.a. n.a. 35 16 0 0 0 Other Revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. 39 1 0 0 0 Total Revenue n.a. n.a. n.a. 1,777 1,981 2,304 2,490 2,724 Other income n.a. n.a. n.a. 28 24 15 15 15 COGS n.a. n.a. n.a. (1,263) (1,400) (1,555) (1,660) (1,811) SG&A n.a. n.a. n.a. (525) (571) (662) (715) (776) Other op.expenses n.a. n.a. n.a. 0 0 0 0 0 Operating profit n.a. n.a. n.a. 17 34 102 130 151 Net-interest inc./(exp.) n.a. n.a. n.a. (12) (6) (5) (3) (1) Assoc/forex/extraord./others n.a. n.a. n.a. (36) (7) (7) 0 0 Pre-tax profit n.a. n.a. n.a. (31) 20 90 128 150 Tax n.a. n.a. n.a. (8) (14) (27) (38) (45) Min. int./pref. div./others n.a. n.a.
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