Pou Sheng & Yue Yuen
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Deutsche Bank Markets Research Asia Industry Date China 15 August 2017 Consumer Pou Sheng & Yue Results Yuen John Chou Anne Ling Research Analyst Research Analyst 2Q17 review: PS margin stabilization (+852) 2203 6196 (+852 ) 2203 6177 and YY steady improvements [email protected] [email protected] PS and YY hosted its 2Q17 earnings call; we remain positive Top picks PS (Pou Sheng) management continued to highlight its target to stabilize Pou Sheng (3813.HK),HKD1.51 Buy profitability in 2H17 (after non-recurring adjustments in 1H17). We have Yue Yuen (0551.HK),HKD33.85 Buy growing confidence in 2H17 margin stabilization thanks to cleaner channel Source: Deutsche Bank inventory, a new franchisee policy by Nike, and the revamp of outlet stores. For YY (Yue Yuen), we believe investors will be encouraged by its commitment to Companies Featured unlocking value. We believe YY may have land assets previously used as production plants in China. We reiterate Buy on both names. Pou Sheng (3813.HK),HKD1.51 Buy 2016A 2017E 2018E Pou Sheng: why are we bullish on 2H17 operating margin? P/E (x) 16.2 10.8 8.2 Clean channel inventory: We believe PS not only cleared obsolete EV/EBITDA (x) 8.8 5.7 4.8 Price/book (x) 1.6 1.0 0.9 inventory on its book (retail stores) but also helped its franchisee clear inventory during 1H17. Optimized inventory conditions, plus controlled Yue Yuen (0551.HK),HKD33.85 Buy procurement from brands, should give PS significant flexibility to optimize 2016A 2017E 2018E its retail discount in 2H17, in our view. P/E (x) 11.4 12.2 11.2 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.5 7.1 7.2 Recruiting franchisee for Nike: We believe Nike has gradually allowed the Price/book (x) 1.3 1.4 1.6 use of franchisees by its key wholesalers in China (PS being one). This Source: Deutsche Bank should boost PS’s wholesale revenue (which carries a higher EBIT margin than retail, in our view). Revamping outlets: Nike and Adidas will likely allow PS to redecorate its outlets in 2H17. This should not only help increase the turnover of off- season products but also enhance a lucrative earnings stream for PS. Nike and Adidas may even launch products specifically designed for outlets. This should further boost PS’s gross margin, in our view. Yue Yuen: unlocking value In addition to a solid recovery in production efficiency, management’s commitment to creating shareholder value should encourage long-term investors. We believe YY likely holds land assets (old factories that have shut down production) in China. How YY management is going to unlock the value of its land may drive more share price upside. For more details of our positive thesis, please refer to the preview report below: Yue Yuen on page 39 and Pou Sheng on page 43. http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/734-0E82/293491433/0900b8c08d480762.pdf Industry valuation and downside risks (details below) We value the sporting goods sector using DCF, as we expect investors to focus on the sector’s long-term value creation. For our WACC, we follow DB’s view on RFR and ERP while applying a beta of between 0.9 and 1.3 and terminal growth of 1-2%. Downside risks: weaker cyclical recovery, weaker innovation, sports segmentation and e-commerce failing to drive sector growth. See pages 4-5 for more details on valuation & risks. ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Distributed on: 14/08/2017 17:12:29 GMT Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. 0bed7b6cf11c 15 August 2017 Consumer Pou Sheng & Yue Yuen Notes from 2Q17 analyst meeting Special dividend Special dividend: record day of 19 September and distribution day of 10 October. Management expects a healthy gearing ratio after the dividend. The HKD3.5 per share special dividend is determined by targeted financial leverage: YY wishes to lever its balance sheet, benchmarking Hong Kong conglomerates such as Cheung Kong, Sun Hung Kai, etc. Note that YY is still less leveraged than the aforementioned conglomerates after the special dividend. Group capex Its 2017 capex target remains at USD300-400mn (albeit font-loaded in 1H17). Management has an aspirational target to maintain group capex at below USD300-400mn in the next three years. Pou Sheng: income statement components Stabilizing profitability in 2H17 is one of management’s main targets. It wishes to: (1) Enhance daily and monthly monitoring of inventory at retail stores. (2) Improve store level operations: intentionally slow down network expansion to maintain good workforce quality. 2017 financial guidance: (1) Revenue: up low-teens ppt YoY (maintained) >>> Equally driven by (a) net add of 600-800 stores and (b) SSSg. (2) Operating margin of 5-6% (cut from 6-7%). >>> Note that this operating margin includes non-recurring losses like inventory provision in 1H17. Inventory provision: (1) 60-70% of the RMB87mn loss was recorded in 1Q17 and the rest in 2Q17. (2) Inventory provision will return to normal from 2H17. (3) The provision was a result of changing consumer appetite, according to PS: PS’s in-season products were moving fast while it was difficult to move its off-season products. PS has reported this to its branded customers, with new initiatives to be implemented. PP&E depreciation: It saw additional depreciation in 1H17, especially in 1Q17 due to heavier store closure. Intangible asset amortization: In 2017, Pou Sheng is starting to write- down two brand names that it holds (not the “YY” brand). This additional amortization will last at least for the full-year 2017, according to management. This is on top of other intangible assets that follow amortization schedules of 5-20 years. Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong 15 August 2017 Consumer Pou Sheng & Yue Yuen Disposal of JV (1) Yunan AuLong (雲南奧龍): PS sold its stake in this JV to the JV partner in 1H17. PS feels this JV is not suitable for PS’s next stage retail. (2) There will be NO additional JV disposal in 2H17, according to management. PCG Bros (1) Management is building its YY Sports Platform using PCG Bros. (2) Management will change this platform from a cost center to a profit center in 2017. (3) PCG Bros incurred a RMB20mn net loss in 1H17; management forecasts a total net loss of RMB30-35mn in 2017. Pilot stores (1) YY Sports City store in Shen Yang: This has third-party fitness trainers and a gym. The store is under the YY brand and has been profitable at the store level. (2) Adidas WKS Mega Store (opened in July 2017): Management plans store level breakeven in six months. (3) PS is in talks with other brands to trial new store concepts. It may start to roll these out in 2H17 or 1H18. (4) For PS, it is important to identify store formats with better traffic, conversion rate and profitability. Pou Sheng: balance sheet Accounts payable days fell to 10 days in 1H17 vs. 22 days in 2016. PS management indicated: (1) It wishes to enjoy cash discounts (annualized of 12-18%) on early settlement with branded customers. (2) Rebate payments by branded customers to PS were faster, leading to PS’s faster rebate payment to franchisees, as estimated by DB. Increase in borrowing and finance costs: PS wishes to improve its financial standing through (1) better working capital management, especially inventory, and (2) improved profitability. ODM Apparel business consolidation: (1) YY finished consolidating an apparel manufacturing business in April 2017. (2) Excluding the additional business, ODM gross margin would have been 20.8% in 2Q17, up 0.3ppt YoY (vs. reported ODM gross margin up 1.1ppt YoY to 21.6% in 2Q17). (3) Under normal circumstances, operating margin from apparel is higher than that of YY’s ODM business. But the apparel business incurred a one-time M&A expense of less than USD10mn in 2Q17. Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Page 3 15 August 2017 Consumer Pou Sheng & Yue Yuen (4) Excluding the apparel business, YY’s ODM opex-to-revenue ratio was flat YoY in 2Q17 (partly dragged by the Indonesian New Year falling in June in 2017). (5) The apparel business used to be a 50:50 JV between YY and its partner. But the partner decided to sell its stake to YY and left the business. Management guides for continued gross margin expansion YoY in 2017. Revisions, valuation and risks Figure 1: Pou Sheng earnings revisions: largely maintained 2017 2018 2019 (CNYmn) New Old diff. New Old diff. New Old diff. Revenue 18,586 18,713 -1% 20,914 21,322 -2% 23,691 24,114 -2% Gross Profit 6,494 6,520 0% 7,295 7,411 -2% 8,243 8,363 -1% Op.Income 1,002 1,011 -1% 1,274 1,261 1% 1,487 1,547 -4% Reported Profit 622 620 0% 819 797 3% 972 999 -3% Reported EPS (HKD) 0.13 0.13 0% 0.18 0.17 3% 0.21 0.22 -3% Gross Margin (%) 34.9% 34.8% 0.1% 34.9% 34.8% 0.1% 34.8% 34.7% 0.1% Op. Margin (%) 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 6.1% 5.9% 0.2% 6.3% 6.4% -0.1% Net Margin (%) 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 3.9% 3.7% 0.2% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data Figure 2: Yue Yuen earnings revisions: largely maintained 2017 2018 2019 (USDmn) New Old diff.