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Pou Sheng International (3813 HK) Pou Sheng International (3813 HK) Rating BUY Maintain Target Price HKD 3.38 From HK$1.83 Undemanding valuation to ride on further recovery Current price HKD 2.01 Upside: +68.1% % Operating deleverage drove 1H20 earnings down, guidance stay put Company Update PS 1H20 result was largely in-line with the profit warning alert released in end-Jul. Both revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders slipped 15.3% 18 September 2020 Yoy/97% Yoy to US$1,667mn/US$1.7mn respectively. This was driven by i) 4.5 pts Yoy decrease in GM and came in at 29.9%, in which 2Q20 GM arrived at ~29.3% based on our calculation; ii) though SG&A ratio was slightly down Hayman Chiu 0.4pts Yoy to ~29.4% in 1H20, operating deleverage drove OPM down to [email protected] 1.7%, in which 2Q20 OPM returned to positive territory at 3.6% (vs. -0.9% in 1Q20) (852) 2235 7677 PS cash conversion cycle maintained stable at 155 days, and though PS Trading Data reduced their borrowings by ~16% and brought their net gearing down to 14.6%, cash balance reached historical high at RMB1,616mn(~US$230mn). PS 52-Week Range (HK$) 2.97/1.17 declared no final dividend for 1H20. PS net closed 306 stores in 2Q20, in which 3 Mth Avg Daily Vol (m) 3.14 No of Shares (m) 5,356.9 direction operation store took up ~93% of the total store closures. We continue to believe PS would still benefit from both Nike and Adidas continued expansion in Market Cap (HK$m) 10,767.3 Greater China. Management sticked to their OPM to expand 200bps to 7% in Major Shareholders (%) Yue Yuen (62.41%) FY21E. We expect this would be mainly driven by mid-teens sales growth (sales Auditors Deloitte growth from various 3rd party channels such as Tmall, JD, Vipshop etc), Result Due 3Q20E: Nov 2020 increased omni-channel sales contribution to ~20% and sequential GM improvement. Company description Jul-Aug sales slowdown due to demand pushed forward and unfavorable weather; Omni-channel strategy began to pay off Established in 1989 and listed in June 2008, Pou Sheng (PS) is one of the leading sportswear PS sales growth slowed down in Jul (-2.1% Yoy in USD terms) and Aug (-9.5% distributors in China with ~25% market share. In Yoy in USD terms) after having returned to positive territory in May and Jun. We addition to Nike and Adidas, the company adopts believe the sales slowdown was mainly due to i) Increased retail discount multi-brand strategy and distributes Puma, drove customers’ demand push forward to Apr-Jun (incl. JD’s 6.18 festival) Converse, Under Armour and PONY products etc. after COVID-19 stabilized, ii) floods in Southern China which lowered store As of Jun 30, 2020, Pou Sheng’s retail network traffic, iii) normally July-Aug is a low season throughout the year other CNY, while some consumers tends to wait for Fall Autumn/Winter product comprises of 9,833 stores, in which ~60% are launches. In 8M20, PS sales reached ~72% of our FY20E estimates. directly operated stores. (vs~65-66% in 8M18 and 8M19). We expect sales growth would improve towards end-Sept and Oct during Mid-Autumn and National Day’s holiday, as MoC has kicked off The National Consumption Promotion Month. Price Chart HK$ Pou Sheng’s omni-channel revenue grew 24% Yoy and accounted for 16% of 3.5 total revenue (vs. 11% in FY18), in which B2C sales contirubtiuon rose from 20% 3.0 2.5 in FY18 to 73% in 1H20. We attributed the encouraging result to Product Sharing 2.0 Platform (PSP) which currently cover >60% of direct brick & mortar stores and 1.5 rd regional warehouses to share inventory and prodvide data to 3 party platforms 1.0 (incl. T-Mall, JD, Vipshop and newly launched WeChat Mini stores which took up 0.5 ~1% of B2C sales etc) to drive online traffic. We continue to believe improvement 0.0 in operating efficiency would be achieved through i) increasing PSP coverage, 19/3/2018 19/6/2018 19/6/2019 19/9/2019 19/6/2020 19/9/2017 19/9/2018 19/3/2019 19/3/2020 19/12/2018 19/12/2019 19/12/2017 ii) enhancing online business through YYSports platform and co-operating with strategic partners, hence achieving economy of scale as fixed costs are Sources: Bloomberg, CIRL relatively lower for online business initiatives would be earnings/margin accretive to PS in the long run, however would still encounter execution risks. Revise FY20E-21E EPS; Maintain BUY with new TP at HK$3.38 We revised Pou Sheng’s FY20E/21E EPS by +1.75%/69.3% respectively to better reflect our sales and GM assumption. PS is trading at undemanding FY21E 8.0x P/E (~1 s.d. below 5-year average and ~64% discount to international leading peers), as both PS’ operating efficiency and profitability would further improve in the long run, after having launched various initiatives. We derived Pou Sheng’s new TP at HK$3.38, hence implying FY21E 13.4x target PE, we maintain Pou Sheng’s rating at BUY. Page 1 / 6 Exhibit 1: We revised Pou Sheng’s FY20E/21E EPS forecasts and introduce FY22E estimates Exhibit(USD Mn) 1: FY20E (old) FY20E (new) Diff FY21E (old) FY21E (new) Diff FY22E Yoy PorkRevenue 3,140 3,952 25.8% 3,924 4,642 18.3% 5,345 15.1% products soldGP in 1,030 1,245 20.9% 1,314 1,578 20.1% 1,823 15.5% supermark etGPM counters 32.8% 31.5% -130 bps 33.5% 34.0% +50 bps 34.1% +10 bps Net Profit 64 65 1.7% 101 171 69.3% 201 18.0% EPS 0.012 0.012 1.7% 0.019 0.032 69.3% 0.038 18.0% Source: CIRL estimates Exhibit 2: Pou Sheng’s 2Q20 SSSG slip narrowed but GM still at pressure due to higher retail discount 20.0 38.0 14.0 12.3 10.0 10.0 10.1 36.3 36.3 8.09.0 8.0 8.6 8.98.7 8.4 36.0 6.0 7.5 6.0 35.2 5.0 5.0 5.9 5.6 4.2 (1.0)(1.0) 3.0 2.2 34.0 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.5 1.9 32.0 1Q14 2Q16 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 1Q13 (2.0) 30.0 (10.0) 29.3 28.0 -17.8 26.0 (20.0) 24.0 (30.0) 22.0 -32.5 20.0 3Q11 3Q12 2Q17 2Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 4Q12 5Q12 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 (40.0) 1Q11 Pou Sheng's GPM (%) Pou Sheng's SSSG (Yoy%, Year ended 31 Dec) Source: Company data, CIRL Exhibit 3: PS sales picked up in Apr while Nike sales rebounded in their 4th quarter result 150.0%Exhibit 1: 40.0 Pork 100.0% 30.0 products 20.0 sold50.0% in supermark 10.0 et0.0% counters 0.0 Jul-14 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr-14 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 (10.0) -50.0% (20.0) Nike (Greater China growth %, ex-FX) Footwear Apparel Euqipment Pou Sheng's revenue (Yoy%) -100.0% Source: Company data, CIRL Page 2 / 6 Exhibit 4: Pou Sheng’s total store reduced by 285 in 2Q20 mainly from direct operations PouExhibit Sheng's store count1: FY18 FY19 **2Q17 **3Q17 **4Q17 **1Q18 **2Q18 **3Q18 **4Q18 **1Q19 **2Q19 **3Q19 **4Q19 **1Q20 **2Q20 Direct operation 5,648 5,883 5,464.0 5,464 5,465 5,517 5,531 5,585 5,648 5,733 5,895 5,995 5,883 5,882 5,597 FranchisedPork 3,551 3,950 3,036.0 3,152 3,313 3,319 3,417 3,397 3,551 3,660 3,756 3,869 3,950 3,860 3,839 Totalproducts 9,199 9,833 8,500 8,616 8,778 8,836 8,948 8,982 9,199 9,393 9,651 9,864 9,833 9,742 9,436 Net adds 235 -81 0 1 52 14 54 63 85 162 100 -112 -1 -285 Directsold stores' in growth 3.3% 4.2% -1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 1.0% 1.1% 1.5% 2.8% 1.7% -1.9% 0.0% -4.8% Franchised stores' growh 7.2% 11.2% -7.9% 3.8% 5.1% 0.2% 3.0% -0.6% 4.5% 3.1% 2.6% 3.0% 2.1% -2.3% -0.5% Totalsupermark growth 4.8% 6.9% -3.9% 1.4% 1.9% 0.7% 1.3% 0.4% 2.4% 2.1% 2.7% 2.2% -0.3% -0.9% -3.1% Directet storescounters (%) 61.4% 59.8% 64.3% 63.4% 62.3% 62.4% 61.8% 62.2% 61.4% 61.0% 61.1% 60.8% 59.8% 60.4% 59.3% Franchised stores (%) 38.6% 40.2% 35.7% 36.6% 37.7% 37.6% 38.2% 37.8% 38.6% 39.0% 38.9% 39.2% 40.2% 39.6% 40.7% Source: Company data, CIRL (*1Q17 growth data vs.
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