Research Report (19.02.2013)
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Pou Sheng International (3813 HK) Rating Maintain Neutral Still facing headwinds Target price HK$1.02 From HK$1.68 Current price HK$1.14 Upside:-10.1% 3Q17 result disappoints again accompanied by weakened KPI ; Further guided down FY17E OPM a negative surprise 17 November 2017 Though PS’s 3Q17 sales was generally in-line with our forecasts (+10.1% yoy Hayman Chiu and 78% of our estimates vs. 75% in 9M16), net profit tumbled 38.5% Yoty to US$51.9mn (accounted for only 64% of our forecast). The short fall continued [email protected] to be dragged by lower GM (3Q17: 34.5%, down 170bps Yoy/110bps QoQ), (852) 2235 7677 and SG&A ratio remained high in 9M17 (31.2%). The lower GM was due to promotional campaigns of emerging brands (non-Nike & Adidas which Trading Data accounted for 7% of total sales). Though facing a lower base in SSSG in 3Q16 (0.4% Yoy in 3Q16), as a result of increased retail discount of 200bps QoQ to 52-Week Range (HK$) 2.42/1.08 24%, this drove 3Q17 SSSG back to 1.5% (vs. 5.6%/1.9% in 2Q17 and 1Q17), 3 Mth Avg Daily Vol (m) 6.33 hence putting GM and OPM at pressure. No of Shares (m) 5,338.5 Market Cap (HK$m) 6,085.9 Meanwhile, PS’s SG&A ratio came in at 31.2% in 9M17 vs. 30.7% of sales in Major Shareholders (%) Yue Yuen (61.27%) 1H17 (30.5%/30.8%/32.6% of sales in 1Q17-3Q17 ; 1H16 :30.0% of sales), Auditors Deloitte which is slightly above our estimates at 30-31% in FY17E. We believe the Result Due 4Q17: Mar 2018 increase in SG&A ratio were mainly due to i) store closure expenses (RMB36mn in 3Q17), ii) larger than expected inventory provision on emerging brands and iii) rising rental and salary. Recalled that the high Company description SG&A ratio in 1H17 included an RMB87mn inventory provision which we Established in 1989 and listed in June 2008, Pou believe mainly occurred in the store closure. Management plans to bring Sheng (PS) is one of the leading sportswear inventory level at emerging brands back to normal in 3 quarters, which we distributors in China with ~25% market share. In deemed a bit aggressive, hence we expect there’s a risk of further increasing addition to Nike and Adidas, the company adopts inventory provision expenses in 4Q17 and most of FY18E. multi-brand strategy and distributes Puma, In view of the challenging environment, PS management again lowered their Converse, Under Armour and PONY products etc. FY17E OPM to 4-5% (vs. 5-6% guidance in 2Q17, with 1Q17 OPM at 4.5%, As of September 2017, Pou Sheng’s retail 2Q17:5.3%, 3Q17%: 4.55%), we expect the OPM would arrive at the low end, network comprises of 8,759 stores, in which mainly due to i) higher store closure expenses , and ii) larger than ~63% are directly operated stores. expected inventory provision on emerging brands. Store efficiency raise long term earnings quality Price Chart In 3Q17, the total number of directly operated stores stayed flat QoQ at 5,464, while newly opened franchised stores came in at 116 (3.8% QoQ) and reached 3,152. PS didn’t provide a clear and update guidance on total net openings by end 2017, however, given PS is undergoing restructure and cleaning up channel inventory, we believe the previous guidance of 600-800 net openings no longer persists. PS target to clear up channel inventory in the next 3-6 months while focusing more on increasing store efficiency going forward, we believe this would enhance earnings quality in the long run. Cut FY17E/18E EPS to reflect lower earnings visibility, Management’s Sources: Bloomberg, CIRL execution ability still weights on share price; Maintain Neutral We cut Pou Sheng’s FY17E/18E EPS by 11.0%/6.0% as a result of disappointing 3Q17, lower GM assumption and SG&A ratio remains high. We expect EPS to grow at only 3.0% CAGR (vs.17.3% in our last update) in FY16-18E. Though PS’s share price slumped ~24% since 3Q17 result, it is trading at FY18E 9.7x P/E (~22% discount to leading peers), in view of 3Q17 result missed as well as lowering FY17E OPM guidance, we continue to believe investors would continue assess new management’s execution ability, hence causing an overhang on the share price. We maintain PS’s rating at Neutral, and lowered the counter’s TP from HK$1.68 to HK$1.02 (30% discount to international peers, vs. 20% previously. This implies FY18E 8.7x target PE vs. 12.0x/12.6x in our last update in August and May). Page 1 / 7 Exhibit 1:Pou Sheng’s 3Q17 SSSG slowed down again on currency neutral basis Exhibit16.0 1: Pork14.0 14.0 12.0 products10.0 10.0 9.0 8.6 8.0 8.0 8.0 sold in 7.5 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.6 supermark5.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 et counters2.0 1.9 1.5 0.0 (1(.01).0) 0.4 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 17 17 17 13 13 16 16 16 (2.0) 13 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 4 1 2 3 2 3 1 2 3 1 (2.0) (4.0) Pou Sheng's SSSG (Yoy%, Year ended 31 Dec) Source: Company data, CIRL Exhibit 2: Pou Sheng’s GM slipped in 3Q17 on increased retail discount Exhibit38.0 1: 36.3 Pork36.0 35.8 36.2 35.6 34.9 34.5 34.0 33.4 34.7 products 33.2 33.6 32.0 31.1 sold in 30.530 .8 30.3 30.3 29.8 30.9 30.0 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.7 28.9 29.4 supermark 29.1 29.0 28.0 28.3 et counters 27.4 26.0 24.0 22.0 20.0 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 11 11 12 12 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 2 4 2 4 5 2 3 4 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 2 4 2 4 2 4 2 Pou Sheng's GPM (%) Source: Company data, CIRL Exhibit 3: Adidas’ revenue and Nike’s trade order continue to deliver stable growth in China Exhibit35.0 1: 40.0 30.0 35.0 36.0 Pork30.0 30.0 30.0 34.0 28.028 .0 26.0 30.0 products25.0 25.0 27.0 27.0 21.0 25.0 23.0 24.0 20.0 20.0 22.0 22.0 sold in 19.0 20.0 20.0 19.0 16.0 supermark15.0 13.0 13.0 15.0 15.0 13.0 13.0 12.0 12.0 10.0 11.0 9.0 11.0 11.0 10.0 et counters 8.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 6.0 5.0 6.0 5.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 (3.0) 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 12 (5.0) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q (6.0) 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 (7.0) (10.0) Nike Adidas (Greater China) Sources: Company Data, CIRL Page 2 / 7 Exhibit 4: Increased franchised stores net openings drove Pou Sheng’s total store counts slightly increased in 3Q17 QoQ PouExhibit Sheng's 1:store count FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 DirectPork operation 3,659 3,665 4,263 4,943 5,560 5,545.0 5,464.0 5,464 Franchised 2,276 2,263 2,689 2,893 3,199 3,298.0 3,036.0 3,152 Totalproducts 5,935 5,928 6,952 7,836 8,759 8,843 8,500 8,616 Directsold stores' in growth 0.2% 16.3% 16.0% 12.5% -0.3% -1.5% 0.0% Franchisedsupermark stores' growh -0.6% 18.8% 7.6% 10.6% 3.1% -7.9% 3.8% Total growth -0.1% 17.3% 12.7% 11.8% 1.0% -3.9% 1.4% et counters Direct stores (%) 61.7% 61.8% 61.3% 63.1% 63.5% 62.7% 64.3% 63.4% Franchised stores (%) 38.3% 38.2% 38.7% 36.9% 36.5% 37.3% 35.7% 36.6% Source: Company data, CIRL (*1Q17 growth data vs. FY16, **2Q17 growth rate vs. 1Q17) Exhibit 5:Pou Sheng partners with international brands to open megastores Exhibit 1: Pork products sold in supermark et counters Sources: Company Data Page 3 / 7 Exhibit 6: Pou Sheng’s current partners and events Exhibit 1: Pork products sold in supermarket counters Sources: Company data Page 4 / 7 Exhibit 7: Financial Summary IncomeExhibit statement 1: Cash flow Year to Mar (US$ Mn) FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E Year to Mar (US$ Mn) FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E Revenue 1,981 2,300 2,444 2,594 2,754 Pre-tax profit 20 86 126 95 117 GrossPork profit (reported) 581 766 868 890 961 Taxes paid (17) (14) (15) (18) (19) EBITDA 63 126 173 144 169 Depreciation & amortization 32 33 38 41 43 Depreciationproducts 32 33 38 41 43 Associates & Others 54 41 46 43 44 EBIT 31 93 135 103 126 CFO bef.