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Research Report (19.02.2013)

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Research Report (19.02.2013) Pou Sheng International (3813 HK) Rating Maintain BUY Penetrate into sports marketing regime Target price HK$2.81 From HK$3.10 Current price HK$2.20 Upside.27.9% 3Q16 NP slight miss; GPM still near record high on healthy retail 23 December 2016 discounts and channel inventory; Higher SG&A on new store openings Hayman Chiu Pou Sheng’s (PS) 3Q16 net profit accounted for ~68% of our FY16E [email protected] estimates (vs. 70% in FY15) on higher than expected SG&A ratio, while (852) 2235 7677 GPM soared 300bps Yoy to 36.2% (vs. 36.3% in 2Q16), which is higher than our FY16E estimate (35% GPM). The GPM hike was mainly driven by healthy channel inventory (~4-5 months) and hence a better retail discount (~low 20% Trading Data off in 3Q16 vs. mid 20’s in FY15). However, 9M16 SG&A ratio rose 182bps to 52-Week Range (HK$) 2.84/1.11 ~30.2% of sales in 9M16, which is higher than our FY16E estimates at 29.4%, 3 Mth Avg Daily Vol (m) 5.90 driven by faster than expected new store openings in 3Q16 (net adds: 233 in No of Shares (m) 5,337.62 3Q16 vs 386 in 1H16). By end-Sept, Pou Sheng’s net openings reached 619 Market Cap (HK$m) 11,742.7 (low-end target of 600-800 in FY16E). We expect PS’s SG&A ratio to be slightly >30% sales in FY17E/18E (vs. avg at 29.4% in FY13-FY15) driven by Major Shareholders (%) Yue Yuen (61.27%) international brands’ expansion plan in China. Auditors Deloitte Result Due 4Q16: Mar 2016 Nike and Adidas products’ demand still strong; New brand partnership continue to drive growth Company description Established in 1989 and listed in June 2008, Pou Nike and Adidas continue to account for ~80% of Pou Sheng’s revenue, and Sheng (PS) is one of the leading sportswear we expect both companies would continue deliver at least mid-teens growth in revenue in the medium term which will be driven by i) new store openings ; ii) distributors in China with ~25% market share. In revamp plan with distributors to enhance store operating efficiency, iii) addition to Nike and Adidas, the company adopts well-received response of leisure sportswear as well as functional sportswear. multi-brand strategy and distributes Puma, Meanwhile, we continue to believe new brand partnerships with Sketchers, Converse, Under Armour and PONY products etc. Under Armour (UA US) and GEOX etc would also help through their As of September 2016, Pou Sheng’s retail increasing presence in China. network comprises of 8,455 stores, in which ~62% are directly operated stores. Acquired PCG bros and to tap into China sports events and marketing regime Price Chart Pou Sheng announced in Nov 2016 the acquisition of Yue Yuen’s (551 HK) sports marketing and organisation of sports events business for US$9.23mn. PCG Bros was incorporated in 2015; the audited consolidated net loss after tax was US$1.1mn in 2015. With previous experience in Taiwan, Management targets business to ramp up in China in 1-2 years’ time. We expect more colours on China development roadmap from Management in FY16E results (due in March 2017) Lower earnings estimates on higher SG&A, Maintain Buy to ride on international brands’ expansion in China and improving operating efficiency Sources: Bloomberg, CIRL We revised down PS’s FY16E/17E EPS by 3.1% and 9.2% respectively on higher SG&A ratio as international brands continue their store expansion plan in China, which would facilitate Pou Sheng’s future growth, while GPM expansion partially offset the hike in SG&A ratio. With EPS expected to grow at 43.0% CAGR in FY15-17E, and share price down by 16% in past 3 month, its FY17E 11.2x P/E (~22.7% discount to international peers) still looks undemanding. We maintain Pou Sheng’s rating at BUY but lower PS’s TP from HK$3.10 to HK$2.89 based on 14.5x forward PE (par to international peers’ average) and FY17E EPS. Page 1 / 6 Exhibit 1: Earnings Forecast Revision for FY16E & FY17E earnings Exhibit 1: FY16 (old) FY16 (new) Diff FY17 (old) FY17 (new) Diff RevenuePork 2,530 2,530 0.0% 2,783 2,783 0.0% products GP 898 908 1.1% 994 1,008 1.4% sold in supermark GPM 35.5% 35.9% 40bps 35.7% 36.2% 50bps et counters Net Profit 122 118 -3.1% 144 131 -9.2% EPS 0.023 0.022 -3.1% 0.028 0.025 -9.2% Source: CIRL estimates Exhibit 2:Pou Sheng’s SSSG outpaced Belle’s in last 4 quarters on currency neutral basis Exhibit16.0 1: 18.0 14.0 16.0 Pork 14.0 15.3 12.0 14.0 14.4 12.4 products10.0 10.0 12.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 10.9 8.0 10.0 sold in 8.0 8.0 7.8 7.5 8.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 7.0 supermark5.0 5.0 6.0 6.5 6.0 6.2 6.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.5 3.0 4.0 4.5 4.6 et counters2.0 3.6 2.0 2.5 0.0 (1.0()1.0) 0.0 (2.0) 12 12 12 13 13 13 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 12 13 15 (2.0) 14 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q (2.4) Q (2.0) FY 1 2 4 1 2 4 1 2 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 3 3 (4.0) 3 (4.0) Pou Sheng's SSSG (Yoy%, Year ended 31 Dec) Belle's sportswear SSSG (Yoy%) Source: Company data, CIRL Exhibit 3: Pou Sheng’s GPM high stayed near historical high in 3Q16 on healthy etail discounts Exhibit38.0 1: 36.3 Pork36.0 35.8 34.9 36.2 products34.0 33.4 33.2 sold32.0 in 31.1 30.5 30.8 30.3 30.3 29.8 30.9 30.0 29.6 29.5 29.7 supermark 29.7 28.9 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.0 28.3 et counters 27.4 26.0 24.0 22.0 20.0 Pou Sheng's GPM (%) Source: Company data, CIRL Page 2 / 6 Exhibit 4: Adidas and Nike’s revenue continue to deliver double-digit growth in China Exhibit35.0 1: 40.0 30.0 35.0 36.0 Po30.rk0 30.0 34.0 26.0 30.0 products25.0 25.0 27.0 27.0 21.0 25.0 23.0 24.0 20.0 22.0 22.0 sold in 19.0 20.0 20.0 19.0 16.0 supermark15.0 13.0 13.0 15.0 15.0 13.0 13.0 12.0 10.0 11.0 9.0 11.0 11.0 10.0 et counters 8.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 6.0 5.0 6.0 5.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 (3.0) (5.0) (6.0()7.0) (10.0) Nike Adidas … Sources: Company Data, CIRL Exhibit 5: Direct operation currently accounts for ~62% of Pou Sheng’s store counts Exhibit100% 1: 90% Pork 2,893 80% 2,276 2,263 2,689 3,204 products70% 60% sold in 50% supermark40% et30 counters% 3,659 3,665 4,263 4,943 5,251 20% 10% 0% FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 9M16 Direct operation Franchised Source: Company data, CIRL Exhibit 6: Grand opening of the first GEOX brand concept store in Qingdao in end April 2016 Exhibit 1: Pork products sold in supermark et counters Sources: Company Data Page 3 / 6 Exhibit 7: Financial Summary IncomeExhibit statement 1: Cash flow Year to Mar (US$ Mn) FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E Year to Mar (US$ Mn) FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E Revenue 1,777 1,981 2,300 2,530 2,783 Pre-tax profit (31) 20 86 158 174 GrossPork profit (reported) 514 581 766 908 1,008 Taxes paid (9) (17) (14) (15) (18) EBITDA 30 63 125 198 217 Depreciation & amortization 42 32 31 32 34 Depreciationproducts 42 32 31 32 34 Associates & Others 69 54 41 39 43 EBIT (12) 31 93 166 183 CFO bef. WC change 72 89 144 214 234 Netsold interest in income (exp.) (12) (6) (6) (6) (7) Change in working cap (34) 21 53 (1) (39) Associates (6) (4) (1) (1) (1) Cashflow from operation 38 110 197 213 194 Exceptionals/otherssupermark 0 0 0 0 0 CAPEX (19) (28) (47) (50) (50) Profit before tax (31) 20 86 158 174 Free cash flow 19 81 150 163 144 Taxet expensescounters (8) (14) (24) (42) (45) Dividends 0 0 0 0 28 Minority interest 0 2 (2) (2) (2) Balance sheet adj. (24) (29) (23) (146) (186) Net profit (38) 5 64 118 131 Sharse issued 0 (1) 0 0 0 Dividends 0 0 0 0 28 Others 0 0 0 0 0 Diluted EPS (RMB) -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 Net cash flow (5) 51 127 16 (13) Net cash (debt) start (199) (204) (153) (26) (10) Balance sheet Net cash (debt) at year-end -204 -153 -26 -10 -23 Year to Mar (US$ Mn) FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E Cash & equiv 64 44 44 63 49 Ratios Trade receivables 349 316 313 344 401 Year to Mar (US$ Mn) FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E Other receivables 0 0 0 0 0 Growth rate (%) Inventories 632 597 595 616 657 Revenue -18.6% 11.4% 16.1% 10.0% 10.0% Other current assets 23 0 1 1 1 EBITDA -21.8% 109.5% 98.1% 58.8% 9.4% Fixed assets 96 94 107 125 143 EBIT -55.0% -350.6% 200.4% 77.7% 10.3% Intangible assets 201 196 183 176 168 Net profit -43.4% -112.1% 1287.4% 83.4% 10.9% Investment, associates etc 95 80 59 60 59 Fully diluted EPS -53.4% -112.2% 1298.1% 84.8% 11.8% Total assets 1,460 1,328 1,301 1386 1478 Margins (%) Gross margin (reported) 28.9% 29.3% 33.3% 35.9% 36.2% Account payables 222 207 309 308 337 EBITDA 1.7% 3.2% 5.4% 7.8% 7.8% Other payables 0 0 11 11 11 EBIT -0.7% 1.6% 4.1% 6.5% 6.6% Short-term debt 218 197 70 73 72 Net margin -2.2% 0.2% 2.8% 4.7% 4.7% Other current liabs 22 2 6 6 6 Other ratios Long-term debts 50 0 0 0 0 ROE (%) -4.2% 0.5% 7.4% 12.9% 13.2% Deferred tax and others 51 48 28 28 28 ROA (%) -2.6% 0.3% 4.9% 8.8% 9.2% Other long-term liabs 0 0 0 0 0 Net gearing (%) 22.7% 17.5% 3.0% 1.0% 2.2% Total liabilities 563 453 425 427 455 Interest coverage (x) 1.0 -4.9 -16.1 -26.0 -26.0 Receivables days 69.1 61.3 49.9 47.4 48.8 Share capital 7 7 7 7 7 Payables days 64.1 53.9 73.6 69.4 69.4 Reserves 874 854 862 946 1009 Inventory days 182.5 155.7 141.5 138.7 135.1 Shareholders' equity 881 861 869 953 1016 Effective tax rate (%) 25.6% -68.1% -27.6% -26.5% -26.0% Minorities 16 15 7 7 7 Total equity 897 875 876 959 1023 Net cash (debt) -204 -153 -26 -10 -23 Sources: Company Data, CIRL estimates Page 4 / 6 Exhibit 8: Peers comparison Exhibit 1: bloomberg Mkt Cap Price Share Price Movement (%) PER (x) Yield (%) code (HKD mn) (HKD) 3M YTD FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E PRCPork - Sportswear peers LI NING CO LTD 2331 HK 9,539 4.91 52.0 16.9 -0.3 -0.6 454.4 19.9 14.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ANTAproducts SPORTS PROD 2020 HK 49,926 19.96 19.2 (5.9) 32.5 26.0 23.0 21.2 18.1 2.0% 2.7% 3.1% 3.4% 8.2% XTEP INTL 1368 HK 9,345 4.22 4.5 3.0 9.8 12.2 9.6 9.5
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