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Research Report (19.02.2013)

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Research Report (19.02.2013) Pou Sheng International (3813 HK) Rating BUY Maintain Target Price HKD 3.03 From HK$2.74 A good start in 1Q21 Current price HKD 1.83 Upside: +65.6% % 1Q21 net profit beat on higher GM and stringent cost control Result takeaway PS has kicked off well in FY21, with revenue grew 59.2% to ~US$1,128mn and net profit attributable to shareholders turnaround and arrived at US$55mn. PS 14 May 2021 revenue and net profit reached 25%/36% of our FY21E forecast. We attributed the net profit beat to better than expected GM (1Q21: 34.3% vs. CIRL estimate at 33.3% )and lower SG&A ratio (1Q21: 28.4% vs. CIRL estimate at 29.0%) , while Hayman Chiu OPM hit 7.0% mark thanks to improved channel structure, omni-channel [email protected] integration and lower retail discount (852) 2235 7677 PS cash conversion cycle further shortened to 107 days (vs. 142 days/ 156 days in 4Q20/FY19), in RMB terms, mainly driven by lower inventory turnover days at Trading Data 115 (vs. 143 days in FY20). PS total borrowings maintained at ~ RMB2,000mn in 1Q21, and net gearing ratio was at 8.6%, still significantly lower than 26.8% in 52-Week Range (HK$) 2.34/1.40 1Q20. PS net closed further 68 stores in 1Q21, in which direct operation store 3 Mth Avg Daily Vol (m) 4.57 took up all the store closures (-70 stores vs. end-2020). No of Shares (m) 5,356.9 Market Cap (HK$m) 9,803.0 Management sticked to their FY21E revenue growth and OPM guidance at Major Shareholders (%) Yue Yuen (62.41%) high-teens and 7% respectively, in which omni-channel sales would reach high Auditors Deloitte teens of total revenue. The OPM target would be achieved through i) improved sales efficiency from offline channel (i.e. increased contribution of large size Result Due 2Q21E: Aug 2021 stores to drive sales, FY19/FY20/1Q21 accounted for 9%/13%/13% of directly operated stores), ii) sequential GM improvement. Company description 1Q21 SSSG grew > 30% Yoy; Apr sales slipped due to boycott Established in 1989 and listed in June 2008, Pou headwinds, early signs of recovery in May Sheng (PS) is one of the leading sportswear distributors in China with ~25% market share. In PS 1Q21 SSSG came in at 32.3% Yoy in 1Q21 (vs. high 20’s You in 2M21), we addition to Nike and Adidas, the company adopts believe this was mainly driven by i) lower inventory level and hence lower retail multi-brand strategy and distributes Puma, discount, and ii) China’s economy continue to pick up in 4Q20 and stabilized Converse, Under Armour and PONY products etc. COVID-19 help consumer sentiment. PS sales in Apr 2021 dropped 11.4% Yoy/17.1% MoM due to boycott headwinds. Management indicated during As of Mar 31, 2021, Pou Sheng’s retail network the con call yesterday evening that sales during the first week of May have comprises of 9,007 stores, in which ~57% are reached similar level vs. that in 2019. directly operated stores. Pou Sheng’s omni-channel revenue soared 55.1% Yoy and accounted for 17% of total revenue, in which B2C sales contribution further increased to 83% (vs. Price Chart 73% by end 4Q20. We attributed the encouraging result to Product Sharing HK$ Platform (PSP) which currently cover >60% of direct brick & mortar stores and 3.5 regional warehouses to share inventory and provide data to 3rd party platforms. 3.0 2.5 Pan-WeChat (incl. WeChat stores, Douyin live-streaming and shopping mall 2.0 platforms) sales took up ~4.6% of retail revenue with better ASP, conversion and 1.5 return rate) to drive online traffic. We continue to believe improvement in 1.0 operating efficiency would be achieved through i) increasing PSP coverage, ii) 0.5 enhancing online business through YYSports platform and co-operating 0.0 Feb-20 Feb-21 Feb-19 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20 Aug-18 Aug-20 May-19 Aug-19 May-20 with strategic partners, hence achieving economy of scale to drive PS May-18 earnings/margin in the long run. Sources: Bloomberg, CIRL Lift FY21E/22E EPS on higher GM forecast; Maintain BUY with new TP at HK$3.03, advise to pay attention to pace of monthly sales recovery We lift Pou Sheng’s FY21E/22E EPS by 15.0%/18.6% respectively on higher GM assumption. PS is trading at undemanding FY21E 7.1x P/E (>1 s.d. below 5-year average and ~66% discount to Topsports), We believe PS still deserve a re-rating story as their operating efficiency and profitability would further improve. We derived Pou Sheng’s new TP at HK$3.03, hence implying FY21E 11.7x target PE, we maintain Pou Sheng’s rating at BUY. However, we advise investors to pay attention to May and June sales figures, and stay cautious of near term price volatility due to boycott headwinds. Page 1 / 6 Exhibit 1: We fine tuned Pou Sheng’s FY21E/22E EPS forecasts (USDExhibit Mn) 1: FY21E (old) FY21E (new) Diff FY22E (old) FY22E (new) Diff RevenuePork 4,488 4,488 0.0% 5,199 5,199 0.0% products 1,495 1,517 1.5% 1,752 1,794 2.4% GP sold in GPM 33.3% 33.8% +50 bps 33.7% 34.5% +80 bps supermark et Net Profit 153 176 15.0% 203 241 18.6% counters EPS 0.029 0.033 15.0% 0.038 0.046 18.6% Source: CIRL estimates Exhibit 2: Pou Sheng’s 1Q21 SSSG returned to +ve territory (left), Adidas latest quarterly sales (end- Mar) in Greater China rocketed 40.0 200.0 30.0 32.3 150.0 156.0 20.0 14.0 12.3 100.0 10.0 8.09.0 10.08.0 8.6 10.1 8.98.7 8.4 6.0 7.55.9 5.6 6.0 (1.0)5.0(1.0) 5.0 3.0 4.2 0.0 1.9 1.5 2.2 1.9 50.0 0.4 -1.0 26.0 30.0 30.0 13.0 21.0 30.0 32.0 27.0 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 1Q20 3Q20 1Q21 13.0 9.0 19.0 25.020.0 26.0 26.026.0 19.0 (2.0) 13.0 8.0 15.016.0 28.0 28.0 16.014.0 11.0 (10.0) 0.0 11.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 0.0 7.0 -13.0 11.011.0 (5.0) -17.8 3Q12 1Q14 4Q16 2Q18 1Q21 2Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 (20.0) 1Q12 (50.0) (58.0) (30.0) -32.5 (100.0) (40.0) Pou Sheng's SSSG (Yoy%, Year ended 31 Dec) Adidas (Greater China) Overall Source: Company data, CIRL Exhibit 3: PS monthly sales gradually back to pre-COVID-19 level despite sales drop MoM in Apr due to recent Xinjiang issue Exhibit 1: 500 Pork 450 products 400 sold in 350 supermark et300 counters 250 200 150 100 50 0 Source: Company data, CIRL Page 2 / 6 Exhibit 4: Pou Sheng’s total store reduced by >700 in FY20 and mainly from direct operations PouExhibit Sheng's store 1: count FY19 FY20 **1Q19 **2Q19 **3Q19 **4Q19 **1Q20 **2Q20 **3Q20 **4Q20 **1Q21 Direct operation 5,883 5,240 5,733 5,895 5,995 5,883 5,882 5,597 5,391 5,240 5,170 PorkFranchised 3,950 3,835 3,660 3,756 3,869 3,950 3,860 3,839 3,901 3,835 3,837 productsTotal 9,833 9,075 9,393 9,651 9,864 9,833 9,742 9,436 9,292 9,075 9,007 Net adds 634 (758) 194 258 213 -31 -91 -306 -144 -217 -68 soldDirect stores' in growth 4.2% -10.9% 1.5% 2.8% 1.7% -1.9% 0.0% -4.8% -3.7% -2.8% -1.3% Franchised stores' growh 11.2% -2.9% 3.1% 2.6% 3.0% 2.1% -2.3% -0.5% 1.6% -1.7% 0.1% supermarketTotal growth 6.9% -7.7% 2.1% 2.7% 2.2% -0.3% -0.9% -3.1% -1.5% -2.3% -0.7% countersDirect stores (%) 59.8% 57.7% 61.0% 61.1% 60.8% 59.8% 60.4% 59.3% 58.0% 57.7% 57.4% Franchised stores (%) 40.2% 42.3% 39.0% 38.9% 39.2% 40.2% 39.6% 40.7% 42.0% 42.3% 42.6% Source: Company data, CIRL (***1Q19-1Q21 growth rate are on QoQ basis) Exhibit 5: Peers’ profitability comparison Exhibit 1: bloomberg ROE (%) ROA (%) Net Gearing (%) FY20 code FY20A FY20A FY20A GM (%) OM (%) PM (%) Pork PRC - Sportswear brands/OEMs productsANTA SPORTS PROD 2020 HK 23.0 10.9 (13.8) 58% 26% 15% LI NING CO LTD 2331 HK 20.9 12.2 (69.9) 49% 15% 12% XTEP INTL 1368 HK 7.4 4.2 (15.2) 39% 12% 6% sold361 in DEGREES 1361 HK 5.9 3.2 (58.8) 38% 13% 8% HONMA GOLF LTD 6858 HK (2.8) (1.8) 0.8 51% 1% -3% supermarkYUE YUEN IND 551 HK N/A N/A #N/A N/A 22% 2% -1% Average 14.3 7.6 (31.4) 47% 13% 10% et counters International - Sportswear peers NIKE INC -CL B NKE US 33.4 10.4 52.5 43% 8% 7% ADIDAS AG ADS GR 7.9 2.5 20.6 50% 4% 2% LULULEMON ATH LULU US 38.0 24.1 (18.1) 56% 22% 16% PUMA SE PUM GR 5.0 2.0 29.1 47% 4% 2% UNDER ARMO-C UA US (6.7) (2.6) 29.1 48% -14% -12% COLUMBIA SPORTSW COLM US 7.0 4.5 (20.4) 49% 5% 4% ASICS CORP 7936 JP (10.4) (4.5) 32.8 46% -1% -5% MIZUNO CORP 8022 JP 5.0 3.1 0.9 41% 4% 3% Average 12.6 7.2 15.8 48% 8% 5% Sportswear distributors JD SPORTS FASHIO JD/ LN 33.4 11.4 121.2 47% 7% 4% TOPSPORTS INTERN 6110 HK 38.2 12.5 32.6 42% 10% 7% DICK'S SPORTING DKS US 18.1 6.1 175.0 29% 4% 3% FOOT LOCKER INC FL US 23.2 11.1 97.5 32% 8% 6% ABC-MART INC 2670 JP 11.5 10.0 (54.1) 53% 16% 11% FRASERS GROUP PL FRAS LN 6.9 2.5 77.3 42% 3% 2% ACCENT GROUP LTD AX1 AU 14.2 7.1 84.7 57% 11% 7% CALERES INC CAL US 15.3 4.6 182.6 41% 4% 2% GENESCO INC GCO US 9.4 4.4 116.8 48% 4% 3% Average 34.0 13.9 92.6 41% 9% 6% Source: Bloomberg, CIRL Page 3 / 6 Exhibit 6: Financial Summary IncomeExhibit statement 1: Cash flow Year to Dec (US$ Mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Year to Dec (US$ Mn) FY19A FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E RevenuePork 3,933 3,709 4,488 5,199 6,121 Pre-tax profit 177 63 244 334 405 Gross profit (reported) 1,342 1,133 1,517 1,794 2,112 Taxes paid (36) (49) (54) (52) (62) EBITDAproducts 295 188 311 409 490 Depreciation & amortization 84 93 29 30 32 Depreciation 84 93 29 30 32 Associates & Others 74 87 94 99 119 EBITsold in 211 94 282 379 459 CFO bef.
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