New Flyer Industries TSX: NFI TSX: NFI.DB.U
North America’s #1 Heavy-Duty Transit Bus Manufacturer and Parts Supplier
Forward Looking Statements: Our remarks and answers to your questions today may contain forward-looking statements relating to New Flyer Industries Inc. and related companies or to the environment in which they operate, which are based on their operations, estimates, forecasts and projections. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict, or are beyond New Flyer’s control. A number of important factors could cause actual outcomes and results to differ materially from those expressed in these forward- looking statements. These factors include those set forth in New Flyer’s Annual Information Form. New Flyer assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect new events or circumstances, except as required by applicable securities laws. All figures discussed today are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted.
Non-GAAP Measures: For the definition and explanation of EBITDA, ADJUSTED EBITDA and FREE CASH FLOW please refer to Appendix A.
September 18, 2013 #1 Heavy-Duty Transit Bus manufacturer in Canada & US
Founded in Winnipeg in 1930. Market Leader in Volume, Technology and Innovation
. Bus manufacturing plants in Manitoba, Minnesota and Alabama . Parts Fabrication in Manitoba and Indiana . Bus Service Centers in Ontario and California . New Product Development Center in Manitoba
. Parts Distribution Centers in Manitoba, Ontario, Kentucky, California and Ohio
. Offer heavy-duty buses in single coach or articulating structures
. Manufacture approx 2,400 buses per year (48/production week) . Approx 3,000 employees . Renewed and current labour agreements
September 18, 2013 2 Strategic Plan execution has positioned New Flyer for growth
Commence MiDi NF LEAN JV with Alexander Implementation Dennis Limited
Production Acquire Launch of Cdn/US Parts Xcelsior platform Business
Acquire Part Acquire US Fabrication Transit Bus Business & Parts Business
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Non-Cash Rights Offering Convertible Debt Issue & terminate 19.99% equity remaining IDSs sold to world’s # 2 Bus Builder
September 18, 2013 3 4 Significant improvements made in Operations Focused management on both cultural and physical change
September 18, 2013 Improved Safety performance & reduced Work-in-Process
Dramatic change in Safety Metrics
Reduced Bus Work-in-Process (EUs) 450 400 350 NABI WIP of 119 EUs 300 250 200 403 341 150 320 299 245 262 241 236 238 209 218 225 203 100 189 175 187 183 186 50 0
September 18, 2013 5 Committed to propulsion options & technology leadership Focused on optimizing New Flyer’s next-gen Xcelsior platform
September 18, 2013 6 Acquired TCB Enterprises – April 2010 Low cost, US based part fabrication expertise + North America’s largest Heavy Duty US based supplier of Interior Transit Bus and Parts company Lighting and Stanchions
Strategic Rationale
Allowed NFI to learn process of due diligence, acquisition and integration Acquisition provided IP in stanchion and interior light design and manufacturing In just 3years, TCB has grown by a factor of five times and has allowed NFI to reduce sourcing costs and improve supply delivery NFI has also in-sourced cooper tube bending, driver barrier and modesty panel manufacturing
September 18, 2013 7 Launched a JV with Alexander Dennis Limited – May 2012 MiDi, a medium-duty bus for North America + North America’s largest Heavy Duty UK’s largest Bus & Coach builder Transit Bus and Parts company and world leader in midi-bus
Strategic Rationale
10 Year Bus targeted at both Public & Private applications Lighter and quieter than Heavy-Duty buses with materially different operating economics Enhanced styling and passenger comfort
Production build commences in Dec-13
September 18, 2013 8 Marcopolo S.A. Strategic Investment in NFI - February 2013 Launched a strategic relationship and provided growth capital + North America’s largest Heavy Duty The world’s 2nd largest Bus builder Transit Bus and Parts company delivering over 35,000 buses annually
Strategic Rationale
Knowledgeable, sophisticated, like-minded investor with opportunity to strengthen North American market position and competitiveness through commercial MOU with a leading global bus manufacturer Access to MP products, know-how, relationships and technology sharing to enhance NFI’s product offerings and profitability Opportunity to seek markets outside North America where NFI IP might be exported
September 18, 2013 9 NFI Strategic Investment in expanding Aftermarket - March 2013 acquisition of Orion’s Parts business from Daimler Bus + North America’s #1 Bus North America’s #4 Bus Aftermarket Parts Business Aftermarket Parts Business
Strategic Rationale
Strengthens leadership position as the largest provider of aftermarket parts in the NA transit bus. Broadens exposure to large transit agencies, and further enhances NFI’s relationship with various transit authorities Attractive revenue stream from the proprietary parts business serving over 10,000 Orion buses currently in service Immediately accretive to earnings and cash flow with added value through combined scale, footprint and overhead utilization
September 18, 2013 10 NFI Strategic Investment in NABI – June 2013 Positions NFI as clear leader in North American Transit Bus industry +
North America’s #1 Bus OEM & North America’s #4 Bus OEM & Aftermarket Parts Business #2 Aftermarket Parts Business
Strategic Rationale
Adds additional products and customers to compliment New Flyer Creates larger scale aftermarket business Enhances stability of cash flows Adds NABI’s low cost manufacturing platform Addition of significant engineering talent/field service Provides opportunity for in-sourcing and fabrication of parts through TCB
September 18, 2013 11 Complimentary combination of products & customers
Xcelsior LFW* BRT MiDi 35’, 40’ 32’, 35’, 42’ 32’, 35’, 42’ 30’, 35’
Xcelsior BRT 60’ 60’
* NABI LFW buses available in both Carbon and Stainless Steel
September 18, 2013 12 New Flyer Aftermarket Parts
• Largest transit bus parts supplier in NA: 5 PDCs
• Supply 300+ transit properties in the US & Can
• Cross Reference Database over 700K p/n’s
New Flyer Supply Chain Solutions • Auto-replenishment programs • Consignment programs • Electronic Data Exchange • Kanban / 2 Bin Systems • Dedicated stock • Maintenance Kits/Systems • On-site stockroom management • Inventory planning services • Vending Machines • Volume Rebate Programs
September 18, 2013 13 Industry Leading Market Share in both Bus & Parts
~42% Pro Forma Transit Bus Share ~34% Pro Forma Parts Share
32% Other 18% Other 4% 14%
7% Neopart 3%
18% 10% MCI 4% 9% Suppliers 4% Direct 5% 7% Truck 9% 5% 29% 6% 8% 7% Muncie Engine Locals Dealers
April 2012: Daimler announced Orion to close by YE2012 June 2013: NFI announced acquisition of NABI to complement NF and Orion’s Parts Business
Source: New Flyer Database & Management Estimates
September 18, 2013 14 Post NABI acquisition - Pro Forma Financial Summary ($US)
New Flyer Standalone New Flyer Pro Forma Acquisition e
u Aftermarket Aftermarket n Parts Parts e
v 14% 15%
e $893 $1,222 R
M Bus million million Bus T 86% 85% T A D T I Aftermarket B Aftermarket Parts E Parts
j 32% 35% d Bus Bus A 68% $60 $81 65% M
T million million T o i t
a 2.8x r 2.2x e g a r e v e l
l New Flyer New Flyer a t Standalone Pro Forma NABI o T Note: Trailing twelve months (TTM) as at March 31st, 2013. NABI fiscal year end Sept 30 Source: Company Filings, NABI Financial Statements and Management Adjustments
September 18, 2013 15 NFI transformed to Common Share Structure Reducing Leverage and Interest Costs
Total Debt (US $million) $450 4.00
$400 • $65M Convertible 3.50 Debenture issued in Jun- $350 12. Proceeds used to $300 redeem Bach Bonds/IDS 3.00 Debt in August 2012. $250 Convert price $10/share. $200 2.50 • $115M Revolver facility $150 used to manage working capital fluctuations $100 2.00 ($19.5M outstanding) $50 $142M Senior term loan @ rate of LIBOR plus $0 1.50 applicable margin. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Expires in Apr-17. Q2 IDS Debt Bachelor Bonds Senior Term Loan Revolver Convertible Debenture To tal leverage ratio
Interest on Bach Bonds/IDS Debt = 14% vs Converts = 6.25%
On June 21, 2013, the Company extended its senior secured credit facility to April 24, 2017. Borrowing limit of the Revolver has been increased to $115M and the Senior term facility has been increased to $142M. • 55.5M shares outstanding. NFI Board/Management currently owns 1.1M Shares (or 2.3%).
September 18, 2013 16 Macro-economic Fundamentals continue to Improve Which bodes well for investment in public transit
US Qtrly State Tax Revenue [YOY % Change] AvAverageerage Age Age of ofBus Bus [Yrs] 12 20
r 11 a
e 15 Y
t
s 10 a
L 10
e m
a 9
S 5
s v
e
g 0 8 n a h C -5 7 %
-10 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 6 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2010 2011 2012 2013 Canada USA Personal Income Tax Corporate Income Tax General Sales Tax Source: http://www.apta.com/resources/statistics/Documents/FactBook/2012- Source: The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute State Revenue Reports Fact-Book-Appendix-A.pdf
Annual Avg CrudeCrude Oil Oil Price Price - Annual - [US$] Average Monthly Unemployment Rate Annual Transit Ridership % Chg YOY $110.00 US CA $100.00 6.00% 11.0 $90.00 10.0 4.00% $80.00 9.0 $70.00 8.0 2.00% $60.00 7.0 0.00% $50.00 6.0 5.0 $40.00 4.0 -2.00% $30.00 3.0 -4.00% $20.00 2.0 $10.00 1.0 -6.00% $0.00 0.0 J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A SOND J FMAM J J A 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2013 US Bus Total US Total All Modes CDN Total All Modes
Source: http://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/historical_oil_prices_table.asp Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (US) ; Stats Canada (CAD) Source: http://www.apta.com/resources/statistics/Pages/ridershipreport.aspx
September 18, 2013 17 NFI backlog provides visibility of Near-to-Medium term sales Total Backlog has begun to recover
Backlog proved crucial in period of low Industry activity 10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Firm Deferred Order Firm Option Deferred Order Options
* The backlog reported for Q2 2013 includes 1,144 Equivalent Units (“EUs”) (of which 536 were firm and 608 were options) from North American Bus Industries, Inc., now called NABI Bus LLC (“NABI Bus”), which was acquired by New Flyer on June 21, 2013.
NFI plan maintains a Line Entry production rate of 36 EUs/Production week NABI plan maintains a Line Entry production rate of 12 EUs/Production week September 18, 2013 18 The NFI Bid Universe has shown Significant Recovery 5 year total >18,000 EUs. Active Opportunities >8,400 EUs
Units forecasted to come out for Competition
20,000 EUs for Bids Submitted 18,000 16,000 EUs Bids in Progress 14,000
12,000 Reflects increased 10,000 competitions in process 8,000 Federal Stimulus investments contributed to surge in 2010 6,000 4,000 2,000 - 9 0 1 2 9 0 1 2 3 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 9 0 1 2 9 0 1 2 3 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 ------l l l l t t t t r r r r r r r r r r c c c c v v v v n g n g n g n g n y y y y y b p b p b p b p b n n n n n c c c c u u u u a a a a a p p p p p e e e e a a a a a o o o o a a a a a u u u u u u u u u e e e e e e e e e J J J J J J J J J J J J J J O O O O A - A - A - A - A F S F S F S F S F D D D D A A A A N N N N M M M M M ------M M M M M ------2 2 2 2 - - - - - 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Ongoing Bids Submitted Bids Forecast
September 18, 2013 19 NFI Book-to-Bill Ratio (Intake/Deliveries) has rebounded Now back to >100% of LTM deliveries
Order Intake vs Deliveries* 6,000 300%
5,000 250%
4,000 200%
3,000 150%
2,000 100%
1,000 50%
- 0%
LTM New Orders (EUs) LTM Deliveries (EUs) LTM Order Intake / Deliveries
* The Order Intake/Deliveries reported includes activity from North American Bus Industries, Inc., now called NABI Bus LLC (“NABI Bus”), which was acquired by New Flyer on June 21, 2013.
September 18, 2013 20 NFI Investment Thesis
Leading Diversified Manufacturer of Heavy Duty Transit Buses in North America
Leading market share of installed base, delivered buses (42%) and aftermarket bus parts (34%)
Innovation leader with the broadest green propulsion offering
High quality diversified customer base generating repeat business in replacement industry
Experienced executive team with a track record and significant OpEx and LEAN experience Predictable cash flow business model, conservative financing structure. Relatively low CAPEX needs
Conversion to common share structure complete. Lower leverage & interest cost
NFI Common Share viewed as Income instrument with yield currently at approx 5.65% (annual dividend at C$0.585/share). Distributions have been paid for 95 consecutive months (since IPO). Management believes dividend is sustainable.
Prospects for Growth
Transit is an essential service with an aging US fleet (average age >7.8 yrs vs. average target life of 12 yrs). After three years of a very difficult market, now experiencing record bid activity (At Q2-13: Active bids >8,400 EUs, Bid Universe >18,000 EUs).
NFI backlog has returned to growth. At Q2-13, total NFI backlog now at $3.75B and 8,536 EUs. Book-to-Bill Ratio has recovered (LTM of 230%).
JV launched with Alexander Dennis to introduce MiDi in Canada/US. Marcopolo S.A. 19.99% strategic equity investment in NFI with operational MOU in process. Parts offering continues to grow through addition of Orion parts distribution business.
Acquisition of NABI allows for complementary products, enhanced customer support, and synergies.
September 18, 2013 21 Shareholders have responded positively
September 18, 2013 22 DEFINITIONS OF EBITDA, ADJUSTED EBITDA AND FREE CASH FLOW
References to “EBITDA” are to earnings before interest expense, income taxes, depreciation and amortization; losses or gains on disposal of property, plant and equipment; unrealized foreign exchange losses or gains on non-current monetary items and forward foreign exchange contracts and fair value adjustment to embedded derivatives. References to “Adjusted EBITDA” are to EBITDA after adjusting for: the effects of certain non-recurring and/or non-operations related items that have impacted the business and are not expected to recur, including non- recurring costs relating to the Orion parts business acquisition, loss on debt repurchase, loss on exercise of redemption right, past service pension costs, realized and unrealized investment tax credits (“ITCs”), and costs associated with assessing strategic and corporate initiatives.
Management believes EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow (as defined below) are useful measures in evaluating the performance of the Company. “Free Cash Flow” means net cash generated by operating activities adjusted for changes in non-cash working capital items, interest paid, interest expense, income taxes paid, current income tax expense, effect of foreign currency rate on cash, defined benefit funding, non-recurring costs relating to the Orion parts business acquisition, costs associated with assessing strategic and corporate initiatives, past service pension costs, proceeds on sale of redundant assets and decreased for defined benefit expense, cash capital expenditures and principal payments on capital leases. However, EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow are not recognized earnings measures and do not have standardized meanings prescribed by IFRS. Readers of this presentation are cautioned that EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow should not be construed as an alternative to net earnings or loss determined in accordance with IFRS as an indicator of New Flyer's performance or to cash flows from operating, investing and financing activities as a measure of liquidity and cash flows. A reconciliation of net earnings and cash flow to EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA, based on the Financial Statements, has been presented In Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition under the heading “Reconciliation of Net Earnings to EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA” and “Reconciliation of Cash Flow to EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA”, respectively. A reconciliation of Free Cash Flow to cash flows from operations is provided under the heading “Summary of Free Cash Flow”.
New Flyer’s method of calculating EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow may differ materially from the methods used by other issuers and, accordingly, may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other issuers. Dividends paid from Free Cash Flow are not assured, and the actual amount of dividends received by holders of Shares will depend on, among other things, the Company's financial performance, debt covenants and obligations, working capital requirements and future capital requirements, all of which are susceptible to a number of risks, as described in New Flyer’s public filings available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
September 18, 2013 APPENDIX A